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NCAAF Handicapping: Career offensive line starts and pointspread results
07.24.2012 01:24 PM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
Come football season, we like to put together a lot of in-depth blogs using recent stats and results to see if we can’t come up with usable trends and angles to apply to the upcoming season. We’ll admit that more often than not, despite the research, what we find is random. But sometimes eliminating a potential angle is just as important as discovering one.
Today we take a look at returning offensive line starters. Ask any bettor what one of the key ingredients is in predicting season-long pointspread successes and failures and a majority will point to offensive line play. It doesn’t take much to notice that when sportsbooks start offering odds to win the conference and season over/under numbers, teams that return four and five o-line starters get a lot more respect than those who must reload along their front five. So with offensive lines being such a big factor in how oddsmakers and bettors judge teams in the preseason, it makes sense to research whether or not that attention is warranted.
Unfortunately there is no perfect way at judging whether or not offensive line experience is correlated to pointspread results. And while Phil
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College Football
Andrew Lange
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MLB Gambling Free Pick: Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates
07.24.2012 09:24 AM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
Chicago Cubs
(Maholm) +165 at
Pittsburgh
(McDonald) O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Chicago
FanGraphs
pointed out some excellent statistics on the likelihood of regression for Pittsburgh's James McDonald. Here are some of the highlights:
He has posted a walk rate of 5.3 during the month after two straight months at 2.1, while his strikeout rate has sat below 7.0 since the beginning of June.
There is absolutely no reason to believe he can possibly sustain a .257 BABIP, especially given his 22% line drive rate and miniscule pop-up rate.
Since the All-Star break, we've seen McDonald start to regress with two sub-par starts that resulted in 9.2 IP, 17 hits, 10 ER, 3 HRs, 9 BBs, 4 Ks. Bottom line is even when McDonald was dialed in, trusting him as a -175 favorite was difficult. With him primed for more regression the decision to fade him
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Chicago Cubs
Pittsburgh Pirates
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Handicapper Rob Veno talks Big XII betting on the Sportsmemo Podcast
07.24.2012 08:57 AM
Printer Friendly
Sportsmemo Handicappers Rob Veno and Andrew Lange discussed the Big XII on yesterday's Podcast. You can
listen here
.
2012 Big XII Betting Prices and Returning Starters
Team
5Dimes O/U
Greek Conf
Returning Off
Returning Def
Baylor
6.5un-140
+5000
6
8
Iowa State
4.5un-145
+6500
7*
5
Kansas
3.5ov-135
+12500
7
6
Kansas State
7.5un-160
+1000
9*
7
Oklahoma
10
-125
8*
7
Oklahoma State
8ov-150
+2500
6
8
TCU
8ov-145
+500
6*
7
Texas
9un-120
+300
10*
7
Texas Tech
6.5un-125
+2800
9*
10
West Virginia
8.5ov-120
+650
8*
6
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Big XII
Rob Veno
Andrew Lange
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MLB Handicapper Free Play: Seattle Mariners at Tampa Bay Rays
07.21.2012 08:57 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Seattle
(Vargas) at
Tampa Bay
(Cobb)
Recommendation: Seattle Team Total Over 3ov-119 @ Pinnacle
Since throwing seven shutout innings with 10 strikeouts against Miami back in mid-June Alex Cobb has been so-so with a 6.75 ERA in four starts. I'll cut him some slack knowing that he was thrown to the wolves against KC because the bullpen was overworked and two of the other starts were against lefty-heavy Cleveland. He's better than his 4.92 ERA but not in great form and facing an capable offense tonight in Seattle. Also keep in mind that the Rays used all their big relief arms last night in a 14-inning win. The Mariners have scored 3 runs or more in 22 of 33 road games against right-handed starters. But the ratio is much higher of late with 14 of their last 17 notching 3 or more (12 of those hit four or more). Note that hitter friendly ump Tim McClelland is behind the plate. Not against playing the game over but Vargas has actually been throwing well and could be a good matchup against
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Seattle Mariners
Tampa Bay Rays
Andrew Lange
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MLB Gambling Free Pick: Seattle Mariners at Kansas City Royals
07.18.2012 01:54 PM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Seattle
(Millwood) at
Kansas City
(Chen)
Recommendation: Seattle Team Total Over 4
The Seattle Mariners have scored 4 or more runs in 56% of their road games this season. Since June 1, no doubt assisted by the warm weather, they've played 17 road games and notched four or more runs 10 times with more than half of those games played in the pitcher friendly environments of Oakland, San Diego and Anaheim. After notching nine runs on back-to-back nights against the Royals, they have another shot at big production against Bruce Chen and a potentially weary bullpen. In Chen's 19 starts, the Royals allowed four or more runs 10 times including four of his last six outings. Chen is in his preferred role at home and the Mariners do struggle against lefties – though Chen doesn't have much of a split. Still, he's hardily in good form having allowed 18 earned runs over his last three starts. The Mariners have quietly scored the most runs in baseball (238) on the road. And while they've
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Seattle Mariners
Kansas City Royals
Andrew Lange
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Polls, schmolls. Just give me a side and a total and let me handicap
07.18.2012 01:05 PM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
In my world, college football polls are pretty much meaningless. Just tell me the matchup, maybe an injury report, hang a side and total and let me work. Oddsmakers and bettors are without question more knowledgeable about what goes in in the world of college football compared to say, Chris Berman. But when asked to rank the top five teams in the country, I simply couldn’t do it – in part because I don't care. Sure, some of us use "power ratings" as a way of judging teams, but again, for much of the season, we deal with situation where one teams is "good" and the other team is "bad" and the betting markets determine the gap. So the question came up, should our
industry get involved
in determining who gets a bid into the newly formatted college football playoff system? The short answer is no, because I don’t have the time nor the desire to do anything but try cash tickets.
“That’s not what we do,” said Pete Korner, owner and head oddsmaker for The Sports
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Andrew Lange
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MLB Gambling Alert: OVER in play with McClelland behind the plate in New York
07.16.2012 01:44 PM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Tim McClelland is one of the few umpires I still consider playing blind (Hirscbeck the other) even though he hasn't been as OVER heavy this year (10-7 O/U). I did notice five of his last six have cashed tickets with those six averaging 11.5 runs per game (9.5 runs per game avg. on the season). There were some mediocre arms in those six games but that is exactly what we are getting tonight in New York with Phil Hughes and Henderson Alvarez. Also note that both lineups have combined for 242 home runs and there were eight hit in last night’s Angels/Yankees game in the Bronx. Toss in the hot temps and grabbing the 10.5ov-115 is a bet worth making.
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Toronto Blue Jays
Andrew Lange
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MLB Gambling Free Play: Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamonbacks
07.06.2012 06:13 AM
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LA Dodgers
(Kershaw) -115 at
Arizona
(Collmenter) O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Los Angeles
Oddsmakers and the betting markets have spent the better part of the last month downgrading the Los Angeles Dodgers because of their much publicized offensive drought. The worst of it saw LA score 15 runs in 12 games en route to a 1-11 stretch. But since the calendar flipped to July, we've seen a tad more offense with 21 runs their last five games (4-1). Despite all that has happened, and with San Francisco currently struggling on the East Coast, the Dodgers head into today with a 1.5 game lead in the National League West. They've have a chance to extend that lead with ace Clayton Kershaw slated to take the hill. Kershaw's seasonal numbers are rock solid (2.65 ERA, 1.05 WHIP) and he not only has a strong history against Arizona (1.92 ERA in 11 starts) but a proven track record at Chase Field (2.59 ERA, 5 starts). To see him at the cheap of a price you'd think he was matched up against the 2011 version
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Arizona Diamonbacks
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4th of July Betting Free Play: Baltimore Orioles at Seattle Mariners
07.04.2012 07:06 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Baltimore
(Tillman) -105 at
Seattle
(Noesi) O/U 8
Recommendation: Baltimore
I've been playing against Seattle Hector Noesi in some capacity for much of the season. Nearly every number I use to determine the true quality of a starting pitcher tells me that Noesi is one of the worst in baseball. His lone saving grace – at least on the surface – is a respectable 3.86 ERA at home. But take a look at his FIP and xFIP and you'll notice his performances at home aren't too far removed from what he's done on the road (7.42 ERA). Baltimore calls up Charles Tillman for a spot start. His career numbers are not very good (5.58 ERA in 180.2 IP) but he's simply not built to handle the rigors of the American League East every fifth day. He is however capable of showing up at Safeco and keeping the Mariners in check. I'm supporting the road side in this one.
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Baltimore Orioles
Seattle Mariners
Andrew Lange
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MLB Free Prop Bet: Home Runs vs. Away Runs
07.02.2012 01:10 PM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Home Runs -180 vs. Away Runs
Recommendation: Home Runs
I don't normally play the Home Runs vs. Away Runs prop play in part because every time I do, I'll be well on my way to victory and there will inevitably be a rain out. That being said, I did take a shot tonight supporting the home side laying the moderate price (-177 @ Pinnacle). I see a lot of games with home teams having a distinct starting pitching advantage. In the National League, Pittsburgh (McDonald), Atlanta (Hanson), Milwaukee (Greinke), and St. Louis (Lohse) are all -160 favorites or more. I especially like that grouping because I see two pitchers on the road who are on my "play against" list in Chicago's Jeff Samardzija and Miami's Carlos Zambrano. In the AL, Ricky Romero has struggled but the Jays face a weak arm in KC’s Everett Teaford. Doug Fister is a big favorite over gas can Liam Hendriks for Minnesota. Add two untrustable veterans in Freddy Garcia and Dice-K and the home sides have plenty of opportunity to put up runs in bunches. I don't see one "mismatch" away favorite on the card. Jered Weaver is as close as you are going to get but
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Andrew Lange
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