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September

26

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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: The NFL's square/sharp divide

10.05.2015     07:50 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
On Twitter every Sunday, there’s always significant discussion of what the NFL sharp/square divide games are for that day.  There’s an old quote from legendary Vegas oddsmaker Jimmy Vaccaro that goes like this: “Squares bet teams, sharps bet numbers.”  And there’s plenty of truth to that quote.  For example, at the weekly Tuesday Group football discussion for pro bettors here in Vegas, nobody says “I like team X this weekend.”  They say, “I like Team X at +3 or higher.”  Recreational players, on the other hand, have a general tendency to focus on teams, not pointspreads. 

That gives pros a leg up when it comes to catching half point wins instead of half point losses in games that finish with a final margin right around the pointspread or total.  Last Thursday’s Ravens-Steelers game is a classic example of that.  Line shoppers, by definition, at least somewhat sharp, won laying -2.5 with Baltimore and pushed taking +3 with Pittsburgh, able to avoid a losing ticket regardless of which side they bet.  The vast majority of non-line shoppers took a push with either Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




NFL Gambling Preview: Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers

10.02.2015     08:07 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Green Bay at San Francisco
Sunday, 1:30 pm PT - FOX
CRIS Opener:
Green Bay -7 O/U 47.5
CRIS Current: Green Bay -8 O/U 48.5
Recommendation: San Francisco

Sometimes, the appropriate betting move in the NFL is to hold your nose and bet on the team that nobody wants; a squad offering legitimate pointspread value.  That’s the case with the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday.

This is truly a dismal spot for the road favorite.  Green Bay faced divisional rival Chicago in their opener, beating up the Bears.  Then they faced a HUGE revenge game on Sunday Night against the Seahawks; a ‘Big Ticket’ winner for myself and my clients with another ATS cover.  And then the Packers enjoyed a third straight win and cover in a third straight big game, knocking off KC on Monday Night Football.  At 3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS, the Packers now fly across the country to take on a 49ers team that just got annihilated in back-2-back road tilts, losing by a combined score of 90-25.  Think Green Bay brings their ‘A’ game here?  I don’t!

The 49ers have Read more



Tags: NFL Green Bay Packers San Francisco 49ers Teddy Covers




College Football Betting Preview: Minnesota Golden Gophers at Northwestern Wildcats

10.02.2015     07:53 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Minnesota at Northwestern
Saturday, 9 am PT - Big Ten
CRIS Opener:
Northwestern -6 O/U 39.5
CRIS Current: Northwestern -3.5 O/U 41
Recommendation: Northwestern

All the technical trends point towards Minnesota in this ballgame.  The Gophers have been great underdogs in the Jerry Kill era; 10-2 ATS in their last dozen tries, the only two losses coming at TCU last year (in a game where Minnesota’s offensive line was riddled with injuries) and their bowl game against SEC East champs Missouri – two teams that are better than Northwestern.  The Gophers have covered on each of their last NINE visits to Evanston.  Meanwhile, Northwestern has been a pointspread disaster as home chalk, just 2-9 against the number in their last eleven tries.  No surprise, then, that the early money has poured in on Minnesota, driving the NW -6 opener down to the current four point spread.

But there’s one big problem blindly betting trends and angles like the ones presented above – they don’t factor in anything other than past pointspread history.  And whatever Read more



Tags: College Football Minnesota Golden Gophers Northwestern Wildcats Big Ten Teddy Covers




College Football Betting Preview: Arkansas Razorbacks at Tennessee Volunteers

09.30.2015     02:41 PM     Drew Martin     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Drew Martin

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Arkansas at Tennessee
Saturday, 4 pm PT - ESPN2
CRIS Opener:
Tennessee - 6.5 O/U 56
CRIS Current: Tennessee -6.5 O/U 56
Recommendation: Tennessee
 
This cross division SEC matchup pins two teams desperately needing a conference win.  The Razorbacks, who were originally lined at 8.5 regular season wins, have dropped three in a row, including out of conference losses to Toledo and Texas Tech. Note that they still have upcoming games at Alabama, at LSU, and at Ole Miss. The Volunteers are currently 2-2 with an overtime loss as well last week’s one-point collapse in Gainesville. Both teams have arguably played well enough to be 7-1 combined, instead, reaching the postseason is far from guaranteed.

The Volunteers have yet to face a team that runs an offensive scheme similar to that of the Razorbacks. Arkansas is a tough hard nosed running team that leans on their offensive line to control clock. They feature multiple offensive linemen that have a shot to play at the next level, although the run game hasn’t been as dominant as projected. Last season, Jonathan Williams and Read more



Tags: College Football Arkansas Razorbacks Tennessee Volunteers SEC Drew Martin




College Football Betting Preview: West Virginia Mountaineers at Oklahoma Sooners

09.30.2015     01:53 PM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
West Virginia at Oklahoma
Saturday, 9 am PT - FS-1
CRIS Opener:
Oklahoma -7.5 O/U 61
CRIS Current: Oklahoma -7 O/U 59
Recommendation: West Virginia

West Virginia enters this game with a 3-0 SU and ATS record although one could argue its quality of competition was lacking as they faced Georgia Southern, Liberty, and a Maryland team with a slew of issues. However, the fact remains that West Virginia has looked very sound on both sides of the football. Quarterback Skyler Howard, a dual threat QB, has grasped West Virginia’s offensive system quickly and been very effective in the first three games averaging over 300 passing with 69% completions and a strong 9-1 TD-to-INT ratio. WVU also has a pair of strong backs in Rushel Shell and Wendell Smallwood and a solid receiving corps with three different receivers with double digits in receptions and over 100 receiving yards led by Shelton Gibson.

Oklahoma’s defense hasn’t exactly put up a lot of resistance early in the season. In their two tougher games against better offenses, the Sooners yielded 24 points to Tennessee and were Read more



Tags: College Football West Virginia Mountaineers Oklahoma Sooners Big XII Ian Cameron




College Football Betting Podcast 9-30-2015 with Sportsmemo Handicappers Drew Martin and Erin Rynning

09.30.2015     11:39 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Wednesday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured Sportsmemo Handicapper Drew Martin and Erin Rynning. Drew, ER, and host Andrew Lange provided a breakdown of the SEC and the Big Ten.

Today's segments
Full Show

Drew Martin - SEC Report

Erin Rynning - Big Ten Report

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.




Tags: College Football SEC Big Ten Drew Martin Erin Rynning Andrew Lange




College Football Handicapping: Tennessee seeks better offensive balance

09.30.2015     07:39 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Through four games, Tennessee's run/pass ratio is extremely lopsided with 209 rush attempts to only 102 pass attempts. A lot of that was dictated by the opposition as the Vols had big leads against Bowling Green and Western Carolina and were rightfully timid to challenge Florida's top-tier secondary. Saturday would serve as a good opportunity to get the passing game going based on Arkansas's defensive numbers. Against Texas Tech, the Razorbacks allowed 315 yards at 10.2 yards per attempt. There were similar struggles against Texas A&M with the Aggies throwing for 358 yards at a staggering 12.8 yards per attempt.


"Every game has a story to it," DeBord said Tuesday. "The story of that game was we were running the ball very effectively. There were times I could have probably gone to the passing game, but when the running game’s going good, stay with the running game."

"We want to be able to throw the ball more down the field," Jones said. "That's really a big part of us

Read more



Tags: College Football Tennessee Volunteers Arkansas Razorbacks SEC




College Football Betting Podcast 9-29-2015 with Sportsmemo Handicapper Ian Cameron

09.29.2015     10:15 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Tuesday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured Sportsmemo Handicapper Ian Cameron. Ian and host Andrew Lange talked Week 4's Big XII matchups.

Today's segments
Ian Cameron - Big XII Report

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.




Tags: College Football Big XII Ian Cameron Andrew Lange




College Football Betting Preview: Iowa Hawkeyes at Wisconsin Badgers

09.29.2015     08:00 AM     Alex Smith     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Alex Smith

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Iowa at Wisconsin
Saturday, 9 am PT - ESPN
CRIS Opener:
Wisconsin -8.5 O/U 47.5
CRIS Current: Wisconsin -6.5 O/U 47
Recommendation: Iowa

Big Ten conference play starts as the Iowa Hawkeyes take their perfect 4-0 record to Madison to battle with the Wisconsin Badgers on Saturday morning. The Hawkeyes unleashed an offensive assault on North Texas last week, scoring 62 points and gaining 488 yards of total offense. Quarterback C.J. Beathard completed his first 15 passes, gaining 278 total yards and 2 TDs while senior running back Jordan Canzeri had a career day, tying a school record with 4 TDs on 22 carries for 115 yards. With the win, Iowa hit the 60-point barrier for the first time since 2012 and begin conference play with a 4-0 record for the first time since 2009.

The Badgers bounced back well from their opening week loss to Alabama with a trio of easy home wins against Miami-Ohio, Troy, and Hawaii. Now Wisconsin will start the league slate at home against an Iowa club that they have beat the last two seasons in Iowa City. Running back Taiwan Deal has filled in nicely with the absence of Read more



Tags: College Football Iowa Hawkeyes Wisonsin Badgers Big Ten Alex B. Smith




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Early season college football money burners

09.28.2015     08:16 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Last week in my Wiseguy Report, I look an in-depth look at the 13 teams that started the college football season 3-0 ATS.   In general, those teams had quite a few commonalities:

“Non-descript teams that aren’t getting much hype or love from the preseason betting markets, the preseason publications or the preseason talking heads.  Teams coming off a bad bowl loss or a late season collapse are definitely worth an extra look, as are teams replacing an experienced, but perhaps underachieving, quarterback.”

I concluded the article with this paragraph: “These early season ATS outliers are NOT likely to continue their red hot runs.  The under-the-radar concept when it comes to finding strong ATS teams in early season play holds sway when it comes to early season results as well.  Many, if not most, of the elite ATS teams in college football this year have already lost at least once against the spread, putting them squarely under-the-radar as potential elite ATS squads moving forward."

If you bet on all 13 of the teams that entered last weekend with a 3-0 ATS mark, you lost money.  Read more



Tags: College Football Teddy Covers



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Ian Cameron, Drew Martin, and Alex B. Smith. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Podcast Monday-Friday at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Podcast?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's podcast archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, CFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Sep 26, 2016 05:09 PM.