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MLB Gambling Update: Cleveland Indians play second straight marathon

05.23.2014     06:48 AM     Printer Friendly

Let's try this again. Yesterday obviously wasn't an ideal situation for the Cleveland Indians as they chucked out Justin Masterson on short rest (he got hammered) and had a fatigued bullpen after needing 13 innings to beat Detroit on Wednesday. But despite the handicaps, they managed to beat Baltimore 8-7 last night – albeit another 13-inning affair. So for a second straight night the Tribe is scrambling for fresh arms. They called up lefty TJ House for a spot start/audition (Zach McAllister was placed on the DL). House appears to be a fringe prospect having pitched in the minors since 2009. Below are the pitch counts for the bullpens that last two nights.

Lowe - 17 (just signed)
Rzepczynski - 9, 25
Allen - 24
Axford - 19, 23
Outman - 30, 13
Atchison - 12, 17
Carrasco - 51
Crockett - 27 (sent down)
Shaw - 5
Tomlin - 49
Total - 321 Read more

Tags: MLB Cleveland Indians Baltimore Orioles

NFL Handicapping: Regression Toward the Mean

05.21.2014     02:00 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
A little primer for the upcoming NFL season: Stats that aren't likely to be repeated in 2014. We’ll be talking about these as well as season over/under wins next week on the Sportsmemo Podcast.

Nick Foles’ 119 QB rating for the Eagles.

Peyton Manning's 115 QB rating for the Broncos; nearly 20 points higher than his career average.

NY Jets’ defense recovering only one of the 13 fumbles it created.

Baltimore’s 3.1 yards per rush; worst in the NFL by a wide margin.

Cleveland’s 4.8 yards per play on defense; 2nd best in NFL (Seattle was #1)

Houston’s -20 turnover margin.

Kansas City’s +18 turnover margin vs. the easiest schedule in the NFL. This year, KC's schedule is one of the ten toughest.

NY Giants losing more starts to injury than any other team in the league.

Chicago’s 6.2 yards per play allowed defensively; worst in the NFL. Chicago’s 5.3 yards per rush allowed; by far the worst in the NFL.

Washington’s special teams last year were bottom 5 – and that's looking at every special teams ranking for the last 25 Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

MLB Handicapping: Offensive numbers down again but bettors on the ball

05.20.2014     11:03 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
For a sixth consecutive season, offensive numbers are down across the board in MLB. But oddsmakers and the betting markets have adjusted accordingly. Totals this year are a near dead even 314-307-35 over/under.

Tags: MLB

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Previewing the Western and Eastern Conference Finals

05.19.2014     10:17 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Only four teams remain standing in the NBA Playoffs; one of whom will bring home the title less than a month from now.  For all the drama of the first two rounds, it’s an all-chalk Final Four, with the top two seeds from each conference battling for supremacy.

With both Conference Finals getting underway on Sunday and Monday, I’ll take a closer look at the two series.  The goal, as always, is to unearth hidden nuggets pointing towards future pointspread success while assessing pace and totals as well.

Predicting series success generally correlates strongly with predicting pointspread success when it comes to the NBA Playoffs.  But not as much as last year!  In 2013, the Final Four teams combined to go 31-11 (74%) against the spread in the first two rounds of postseason; each of the four teams cashing at a 67% clip or better.  The ‘surprise’ team of the four, Memphis, went 10-1 ATS through the first two rounds before covering only once while getting swept by San Antonio.

The ATS success of the Final Four teams in 2014 pales in comparison to 2013.  Between them, the NBA’s Final Four have turned a Read more

Tags: NBA Oklahoma City Thunder San Antonio Spurs Miami Heat Indiana Pacers Teddy Covers

MLB Handicapper Free Play: Baltimore Orioles at Kansas City Royals

05.15.2014     09:43 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC blog entry.
Baltimore (Chen) at Kansas City -130 O/U 7
Recommendation: Kansas City

The Kansas City Royals continue their nine-game home stand hosting the Baltimore Orioles. The Royals pitching staff owns a 1.88 ERA during that span and their bullpen has showed signs of returning to the stellar form as they’ve haven’t allowed a single earned run in their last 19.1 innings of work. I’m very impressed by Yordano Ventura and I’ve been looking to bet him at every reasonable opportunity. Ventura has yielded three runs or fewer in six of his seven starts this season and he totally dominated the Orioles when he faced them at Camden Yards back in April tossing eight innings of shutout baseball. Wei-Yin Chen counters for Baltimore and the lefty has had his share of ups and downs this season but on the road he has labored with a 5.40 ERA in three starts. He’s also had problems against Kansas City in the past with a 4.50 ERA and .310 batting average against in five starts Read more

Tags: MLB Baltimore Orioles Kansas City Royals Ian Cameron

Paddy Power says World Cup handle will reach $160 million

05.14.2014     01:39 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
It's been a rough 2014 for Irish sportsbook Paddy Power following two horrifically bad weeks (Premier League favorites crushed) and CEO Patrick Kennedy’s announcement that he will step down at the end of the year. As a result, the company's stock fell 4%. But they are expecting to rebound in a big way thanks to the upcoming World Cup.

“We turned over approximately €80 million in 2010 on the World Cup and we would expect that to be at around €160 million this year,” he said.

Tags: Soccer

MLB Handicapper Free Play: Miami Marlins at Los Angeles Dodgers

05.14.2014     01:04 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Miami (DeSclafani) at LA Dodgers (Maholm) -140 O/U 8
Recommendation: Over

Very quietly, way underneath the radar, the Miami Marlins have become one of the strongest ‘Over’ teams in baseball.  Miami has cashed five straight Over tickets on their West Coast road trip; 11-3-1 to the Over in their last 15 ballgames. 

The reason behind all of these Overs is simple to understand.  First, Miami’s totals are always low, based on their relatively weak lineup and relatively strong starting pitching.  Secondly, that weak lineup has been able to scratch out runs. And third, Miami’s bullpen has been spotty at best; lousy at worst, blowing five save chances and taking nine losses already this year while ranked #20 out of 30 MLB teams in bullpen ERA.

The Dodgers bullpen is every bit as spotty as the Marlins pen, suffering 11 bullpen losses already this year.  But LA’s lineup has finally started to hit, breaking out with 23 runs Read more

Tags: MLB Miami Marlins Los Angeles Dodgers Teddy Covers

MLB Handicapper Free Play: Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets

05.11.2014     07:22 AM     ER Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ER Sports blog entry.
Philadelphia (Hamels) at NY Mets (Niese) -125 O/U 6.5
Recommendation: Over

The Philadelphia Phillies will send Cole Hamels to the mound for today’s afternoon start against the New York Mets. The left-hander missed the bulk of April while nursing a strained elbow. In his first start against the Dodgers he looked in midseason form allowing just two runs in six innings. However in his two most recent starts the wheels have fallen off. One of those starts was against the Mets where he was hammered for six runs in 4.2 innings of work and also managed to walk an uncharacteristically high five batter. Meanwhile, the Mets will have their own southpaw on the hill in Jon Niese. The numbers look brilliant for Niese with a 1.82 ERA but the time to sell has arrived. Niese has dealt with shoulder issues in the past and took a cortisone shot for his ailing limb during in spring training. His velocity has dipped, but the numbers have largely stayed strong. However, in visually watching Niese Read more

Tags: MLB Philadelphia Phillies New York Mets Erin Rynning

MLB Handicapper Free Play: Cleveland Indians at Tampa Bay Rays

05.09.2014     07:19 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Cleveland (Kluber) +100 at Tampa Bay (Odorizzi) O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Cleveland

I'll take the better starting pitcher in this matchup with Cleveland's Corey Kluber taking on Tampa Bay's Jake Odorizzi. Kluber is quietly developing into a top-of-the-rotation American League arm with the ability to miss bats and get groundballs. Since the start of 2013, Kluber's xFIP ranks sixth among qualified AL starting pitchers at 3.10. I was a fan of Odorizzi to start the season but have since cooled my stance after watching a few of his starts. Unlike Kluber, Odorizzi doesn't have swing and miss stuff and thus far he's been an extreme fly ball pitcher. A telltale sign these struggles could continue is that teams are 29-for-61, .475 the second and third time through the order. Also note that Odorizzi hasn't lasted past five innings since his first start of the year; putting extra pressure on a very questionable Rays' bullpen. Both offenses have scuffled of late which makes the starting pitching Read more

Tags: MLB Cleveland Indians Tampa Bay Rays Andrew Lange

MLB Gambling News: Oddsmakers hang first 5.5 of the season

05.08.2014     01:35 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Taking a look ahead to tomorrow’s MLB card we see our first total of 5.5 on the year with Miami’s Jose Fernandez taking on San Diego’s Tyson Ross in Petco. Certainly a pitching matchup and location conducive for a low scoring game though the Marlins have scored the second-most runs in the National League (157) behind Colorado (215). A database search showed that since 2010, games totaled 5.5 are 12-12 over/under – half of those involved Clayton Kershaw.

Tags: MLB Miami Marlins San Diego Padres


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