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NFL Handicapping: Drive Point Averages Week 12

11.20.2013     08:14 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I was able to put together updated Drive Point averages early this week. The math is so easy when almost everyone’s played exactly 10 games! I also wanted to include strength of schedule data for each team as well, because that can pollute the numbers a smidge. I usually go to Sagarin for those (USA Today). And, his are usually in the neighborhood of Football Outsiders to. Figured I’d grab those too. Then, I can get any feng shui stuff out of my system now so I don’t have to write up a full report.

The numbers you see below are per-game Drive Point averages for every offense and defense. Drive Points are those scored and allowed on Drives of 60 yards or more. All other scoring is excluded (shorter drives, defensive points, special teams points). We’re looking to capture as best as possible each team’s ability to drive the field for points on offense, while preventing opponents from doing so.

In parenthesis, I’ve put the strength of schedule Read more


Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




College Basketball Betting Free Play: East Carolina Pirates at Duke Blue Devils

11.19.2013     12:37 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
East Carolina at Duke -23.5
Recommendation: Duke


East Carolina knows it is lucky to be in this spot after rallying back from 17 down in the second half to clip Norfolk State by two. I give credit to the Pirates for fighting back but a vast majority of their win had to do with Norfolk's shortcomings (2-of-14 from 3, 10-of-20 from the line including multiple misses in crunch time). No question ECU put forth a ton of effort in that comeback win and with no rest they must turnaround and face a Duke squad that has had no trouble handling lesser competition. The Blue Devils have wins by 34, 33, and 36 on their home court. And to me, ECU is not far removed personnel wise to that of Davidson, Florida Atlantic, and UNC Asheville. Also note that as Jeff Lebo has built up the ECU program, he's been pretty active is staying away from top-tier competition. In 2011, they faced Clemson (No. 22 Ken Pom) and last year lost by six at North Carolina (No. 32). With the exception of Memphis in C-USA, those are arguably the two toughest teams ECU has faced in three-plus years – and this year’s version of Duke is far better than all three. And East Carolina was Read more


Tags: College Basketball East Carolina Pirates Duke Blue Devils Andrew Lange




College Football Betting: LSU short home favorites vs. Texas A&M

11.19.2013     08:04 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Texas A&M at LSU -4

Unique situation for LSU on Saturday with the Tigers playing host to Texas A&M – the first time in recent memory they've faced a capable foe following their rivalry tilt vs. the Crimson Tide. Over the last seven years, only twice had LSU played an SEC opponent in this situation and in both instances they were sizable favorites. Heading into Saturday's matchup, Les Miles didn't sound too excited about having to prepare for the contrast in styles from Alabama to A&M. LSU won last year's meeting in College Station, 24-19. The Tigers were outgained 410-316 but benefited from a +5 turnover margin.

LSU's result following Alabama game (7-0 SU, 3-4 ATS)
2012 - 31-17 (-14.5) Win vs. Mississippi State
2011 - 42-9 (-41.5) Win vs. Western Read more


Tags: College Football LSU Tigers Texas A&M Aggies SEC




College Football Gambling: Missouri's Franklin gets starting nod vs. Ole Miss

11.19.2013     07:43 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Missouri -3 at Mississippi

Despite not having played in over a month, Missouri will start quarterback James Franklin for Saturday's game at Ole Miss. The Tigers went 3-1 with backup Maty Mauk under center (951 yards, 51.7% completions, 10 TDs, 2 INTs). Mizzou is 3-0 ATS as road chalk this season with wins by 31, 23, and 17.


“That’s really good for his timing to get back in there,” Pinkel said. “He looks really good. He’s excited about getting back. The team’s excited about having him back.”

“It’s definitely a confidence booster because the guy knows the offense like no other,” wideout L’Damian Washington said. “He knows the offense. He knows where guys are going to be. Just to see a guy after all his Read more



Tags: College Football Missouri Tigers Ole Miss Rebels SEC




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: NFC Super Bowl Contenders

11.18.2013     12:31 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
It’s late November.  Thanksgiving is next week.  And that means it’s time for me to take a break from my typical team notes column that I’ve been writing here in the Vegas Wiseguy Report since the start of the NFL season.

It’s time to focus on the big boys – teams with playoff aspirations.  Who can get hot down the stretch and make us some money winning games and covering pointspreads?  Which squads are legitimate Super Bowl contenders; which are pretenders.  Let’s take look through the NFC this week, gauging which squads have ATS value moving forward, and which squads have already reached their zenith, poised to tumble back to earth down the stretch.

I did not include notes on Carolina (they don’t play till Monday Night) and Dallas (on bye this week) due to space limitations.  That leaves Philadelphia, the New York Giants, Detroit, Chicago, Green Bay, New Orleans, Seattle, San Francisco and Arizona to consider; all of whom remain live for the postseason as Week 12 approaches.

Serious Super Bowl Contenders

Seattle Seahawks - I Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




College Football Betting Preview: Utah Utes at Oregon Ducks

11.15.2013     03:08 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Utah at Oregon
Saturday, 1 pm PT - FS1
CRIS Opener:
Oregon -25 O/U 64
CRIS Current: Oregon -28 O/U 63.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Oregon -26
Andrew Lange's Recommendation: Oregon

A lot of bettors would look at Oregon as unplayable this weekend after having its hopes of a BCS Championship crushed in somewhat embarrassing fashion. But there are other factors to consider in this matchup that in my opinion offset the potential letdown for the Ducks.

For starters, unlike a majority of the PAC-12, Utah has little to no experience playing against Oregon's offense. The last meeting between the two schools was 2009 – Chip Kelly's third game on the job. Second, this is not an ideal spot for the Utes either. After losing back-to-back road games, Utah had a 19-7 lead against Arizona State but gave up a touchdown with a little over two minutes remaining to lose 20-19. Win that game and Utah goes to Read more


Tags: College Football Utah Utes Oregon Ducks PAC-12 Andrew Lange




NFL Handicapping: Feng Shui/Analytics Part II

11.15.2013     06:05 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

A week ago, I posted some notes and thoughts about what seemed to be significant ranking differences for certain NFL teams at the most widely known “analytics” sites.

There’s no need for you to go back and read the whole thing on a link. I’ll provide one at the end if you missed that article.

In short, I mentioned how the whole thing reminded me of a Penn & Teller segment on Feng Shui on their Showtime series. Different practitioners said they were using “science.” But, they got wildly different conclusions in a way that suggested to observers that there wasn’t a meaningful “there” there when it was all said and done. This guy thinks the couch should be here…that guy thinks Cincinnati should be ranked #1. Use common sense to put your couch in front of the TV…use common sense to rank Cincinnati off the pace of the truly elite but in the mix of potential darkhorses…what’s being called Read more


Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




College Football Handicapping: Week 12 Injury Report

11.14.2013     01:40 PM     Brian Edwards     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Brian Edwards

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
UCLA running back Jordon James will start Friday vs. Washington. James has missed four of the last five games with an ankle injury. He tried to come back two weeks ago vs. Colorado but was held to eight yards on six carries. Jim Mora Jr. chose to rest James in last week’s 31-26 win at Arizona. With OT Simon Goines ruled ‘out’ Thursday, the Bruins will be without three starting offensive linemen but it’s been that way for the last three games.

Florida lost a 10th player to a season-ending injury when starting LB Antonio Morris tore his meniscus in a 34-17 home loss to Vanderbilt. Morrison is the seventh starter to go down for the year and with OT D.J. Humphries also ‘out,’ UF will be without at least eight starters Saturday at South Carolina. QB Tyler Murphy is expected to be a game-time decision due to a sore shoulder. If Murphy can’t go, Skyler Mornhinweg (yes, Marty’s son) will get the starting nod. Mornhinweg, a redshirt freshman, has never taken a collegiate snap. The Gators are double-digit underdogs (+13.5 as of Wednesday) for just the second time under Will Muschamp.

Mississippi State could be without two Read more


Tags: College Football Brian Edwards




NFL Gambling Preview: Baltimore Ravens at Chicago Bears

11.14.2013     01:26 PM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Baltimore at Chicago
Sunday, 10 am PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
Chicago -3 O/U 47
CRIS Current: Chicago -3 O/U 45
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Chicago -3
Ian Cameron's Recommendation: Chicago

I just can’t recommend a bet in this price range right now with the Baltimore Ravens especially playing away from M&T Bank Stadium. Baltimore is a shell of the Super Bowl team from a year ago. There is zero downfield passing game as Joe Flacco has struggled mightily with 6.4 yards per attempt and a 12-11 TD-INT ratio. They can’t run the football either with Ray Rice averaging just 2.5 yards per carry. The defense clearly hasn’t been the same after losing veteran leadership from the likes of Ray Lewis and Ed Reed in the offseason. As a team they rank middle of the pack in the NFL in total defense allowing 342.2 yards per game. Baltimore is 4-5 on the season including a 1-3 SU/ATS run. That is not the kind of track Read more


Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens Chicago Bears Ian Cameron




College Football Betting Preview: Oklahoma State Cowboys at Texas Longhorns

11.13.2013     12:39 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Oklahoma State at Texas
Saturday, 12:30 pm PT - FOX
CRIS Opener:
Oklahoma State -1 O/U 62.5
CRIS Current: Oklahoma State -3 O/U 63
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Texas

The betting markets seem convinced that Oklahoma State is capable of beating a quality team on the road in the same fashion that the Cowboys have been beating weaklings. After all, Mike Gundy’s squad has won five straight (4-1 ATS) since their embarrassing loss as 19.5-point favorites at West Virginia back in late September.

But both key wins during that span were right team at the right time kind of victories. They beat Kansas State by only four (not covering -12.5) when Bill Snyder was still working to rebuild his squad from their massive graduation losses; a K-State team that has improved by leaps and bounds over the last month since that defeat. The other “signature” win came against Texas Tech when the Red Raiders were Read more


Tags: College Football Oklahoma State Cowboys Texas Longhorns Big XII Teddy Covers



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, and Ian Cameron. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Apr 16, 2014 12:15 AM.