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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: National League Preview

04.13.2015     07:23 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Last week in this space, I wrote a team-by-team overview of the 15 American League squads.  This week, I’ll shift my focus to the National League, breaking down each team from a Las Vegas perspective.  Teams are listed in alphabetical order, by division.

A week ago, the Atlanta Braves were viewed as likely bottom feeders following a massive offseason rebuild that resulted in only six players from opening day last year returning on opening day in 2015; lined in the same range as teams like Arizona, Colorado and Minnesota.  One week later and the market view of Atlanta has changed at least somewhat thanks to a 5-1 record with the best run differential in the NL.  Julio Teheran, Shelby Miller and Alex Wood all hav top-of-the-rotation stuff, but it’s hard to picture this anemic lineup continuing to deliver steady run support.

The Miami Marlins hung around in the wild card race into the dog days of August last year before Giancarlo Stanton’s Read more

Tags: MLB Teddy Covers

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: American League Preview

04.06.2015     08:01 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
The college basketball season is in the rear view mirror now.  The NBA Playoffs don’t start until next weekend.   That can only mean one thing – baseball is here!  In this week’s Wiseguy Report, I’ll be breaking down the American League, team by team in overview fashion.  I’ll do the same thing next week for the National League.  The goal?  Identify potential market inefficiencies right from the get-go; looking for overvalued and undervalued commodities.  Teams are listed in alphabetical order, by division.

The Baltimore Orioles were, by far, the single most profitable team to support in MLB last year, yet the betting markets aren’t particularly enamored with Buck Showalter’s squad heading into 2015.  The Orioles had the 2nd biggest gap between their FIP (fielding independent pitching) and their ERA last year, a strong indicator for future regression.   And the best home run hitting team in baseball lost big bats Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis in the offseason.  That being said, the Orioles have been consistently undervalued in recent seasons and they Read more

Tags: MLB Teddy Covers

MLB Gambling Update: Cosart says he's never bet on baseball

04.02.2015     07:38 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Update of an update. Miami's Jarred Cosart claims to have never bet on baseball which we have no reason not to believe. However, he still hasn't used "my Twitter account was hacked" as an excuse for the questionable Tweets which means he's probably betting on other sports -- a perfectly legal pastime according the MLB rules. 

"I told all these guys, I never have, never will bet on baseball," he said, according to the Miami Herald. "That's the only statement I can come out with right now. I'm letting MLB security [handle the rest]. They've investigated my Twitter. I had to speak to some people from their offices last week, but I'm in a good position on it, I'm confident. Like I said, it's kind of just in the commissioner's hands now and we'll see what he does with it."

Tags: MLB Miami Marlins

NBA Handicapper Free Play: New Orleans Pelicans at Los Angeles Lakers

04.01.2015     10:14 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno blog entry.
New Orleans -8 at LA Lakers O/U 193
Recommendation: New Orleans

Determination of New Orleans to fight all out for the eighth and final Western Conference playoff spot is in full effect after back-to-back blowout wins over Sacramento and Minnesota. They face a third consecutive lottery bound opponent in the LA Lakers tonight. Hornets start PF Anthony Davis is leading the surge with his play and his words as he’s stated the importance of playing well during this stretch versus lower tier teams. With the Lakers coming back from the east coast after playing five games in seven days with a lineup full of reserves, it’s easy to imagine their tank being empty for this one. This has been a good match-up for New Orleans which is 3-0 straight up against the Lakers this season with the two most recent victories being by 17 and 16 points respectively. Each of those wins came with LAL SG Kobe Bryant in the lineup as well as the team’s #2 and #4 scorers Nick Young and Carlos Boozer. The Hornets Davis averaged 26 ppg in those contests and there’s nobody to guard him here tonight either. Lakers G Jeremy Lin could return to action here and it Read more

Tags: NBA New Orleans Pelicans Los Angeles Lakers Rob Veno

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Bettors gear up for Final Four

03.30.2015     08:17 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
The dust has settled from the madness that is March, with only four teams still standing in the NCAA Tournament.  And frankly, since the insanity of that opening Thursday morning when top seeds were falling like flies (Baylor, Iowa State, SMU), this tournament has not seen a bevy of upsets. 

In fact, the Vegas favorite advanced in 48 of the last 54 Big Dance games (48-6 SU, not ATS) since midday on the opening day of the tourney.  For only the second time this century, three #1 seeds reached the Final Four.  In this week’s Wiseguy Report I’m going to try to answer the question that everybody is asking: can anybody beat Kentucky; winners of 38 consecutive ballgames since the start of the season.

Since Kentucky is the most hyped team in recent memory, I’ll start with the Wildcats first.  Yes, this team won the title in 2012, going 4-2 ATS in the process during the Big Dance.  Yes, they reached the championship game last year; an undervalued commodity in March as they covered all four pointspreads on the way to the Final Four.  

But this year’s Kentucky team has simply gotten too much Read more

Tags: College Basketball Kentucky Wildcats Wisconsin Badgers Duke Blue Devils Michigan State Spartans Teddy Covers Las Vegas

MLB Gambling Update: League looking into Cosart situation

03.27.2015     07:43 AM     Printer Friendly

Update on the Jarred Cosart's alleged gambling exploits. The MLB is reportedly looking into the matter and Cosart is cooperating. He's playing it coy thus far and asking everyone to wait till the situation plays out. Cosart though didn't deny that the original Tweets in question were his own. Important to note that there's no rule to keep MLB players from betting on other sports.

"Obviously, I was caught off guard by the whole situation," Cosart said. "I'm following the MLB protocol and talking with MLB security, and they're taking care of it. I'm putting everything in their hands, and when we know something else, we'll let everybody know."

The one where Jarred Cosart is accused of being a sports Read more

Tags: MLB Miami Marlins

College Basketball Betting Free Play: Xavier Musketeers vs. Arizona Wildcats

03.26.2015     07:01 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Xavier vs. Arizona -10.5 O/U 135.5
Recommendation: Arizona

My power ratings show Arizona right there with Duke as the second best team in the country.  The Wildcats are playing in a friendly, familiar venue in LA; certain to enjoy significant crowd support compared to Xavier in this game, to go along with their short travel time.  Their coach, Sean Miller, is arguably the best coach in college basketball never to reach the Final Four.  This team is a juggernaut, plain and simple, and the PAC 12’s 7-1 ATS mark over the opening weekend of the Big Dance speaks volumes about how undervalued this conference is on the national stage.

Xavier is no juggernaut.  The Big East really wasn’t very good this year – it was Villanova and then everybody else.  The Musketeers are tough and well coached, but they finished sixth in this mediocre conference with a 9-9 record in Big East play.  They are here only because of the ‘luck of the draw’; facing an Ole Miss team off extensive travel on short rest in the first round, followed by upstart #14 seed Georgia State in the Round of 32.

The Read more

Tags: College Basketball Xavier Musketeers Arizona Wildcats Teddy Covers

Sportsmemo's MLB Betting Preview: Detroit Tigers

03.26.2015     06:18 AM     Printer Friendly

Following the loss of three key pitchers over the last two seasons, the Detroit Tigers find themselves as “just another AL Central team” after years of domination.

Detroit Tigers
2014 W-L:
2014 O/U: 84-72-6
2014 Profits: -3.8
2015 O/U Wins: 84.5
2015 AL Central Odds: +205
Projected Starting Rotation: David Price, Justin Verlander, Anibal Sanchez, Shane Greene, Alfredo Simon
Key Departures: Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello
Key Additions: Yoenis Cespedes

Handicapper’s Take: “The Tigers won 90 games again last year while winning their fourth consecutive American League Central title.  Yet their supporters lost money for the full season last year; just as they did in 2013 and 2012 – the only profitable season for their backers during this four-year span of division domination came back in 2011.  Why can’t the Tigers show a profit for their backers even when they are winning division Read more

Tags: MLB Detroit Tigers Teddy Covers

College Basketball Betting Free Play: Vanderbilt Commodores at Stanford Cardinal

03.24.2015     06:09 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Vanderbilt at Stanford -3 O/U 150
Recommendation: Under

There's no doubt that the shot clock adjustment for the secondary college basketball tournaments has had an impact on pace of play and scoring. How significant though depends largely on the matchup. I've seen games where it didn't really matter and others where it was probably worth an extra 15 points and 10 possessions. Both oddsmakers and the betting markets had priced totals anywhere from 6-15 points higher than they would be under normal circumstances. Tonight's Vanderbilt-Stanford game is currently priced at 150; about 12-14 points higher than a regular season matchup. From watching both teams, neither has been forced to adjust much to the rule change as they typically play at a moderate pace. And of the four games they've played, three went well below 150. The lone exception was the crazy 109-point second half between Vandy and South Dakota State. The Jackrabbits were two days removed from a wild shootout win at elevation over Colorado State and clearly had nothing left in the tank. I'll also point out the extra importance on tonight's contest with the winner earning a trip to the Read more

Tags: College Basketball Vanderbilt Commodores Stanford Cardinal Andrew Lange

Sportsmemo's MLB Betting Preview: Milwaukee Brewers

03.23.2015     10:49 AM     Printer Friendly

Despite last season's second half swoon, the Milwaukee Brewers were rather quiet this offseason. The starting rotation and lineup has the potential to be above NL-average but will they both click at the same time and more importantly produce for an entire season? Oddsmakers say no with the Brew Crew projected to be sub.-500.  

Milwaukee Brewers
2014 W-L:
2014 O/U: 75-83-4
2014 Profits: -7.2
2015 O/U Wins: 79
2015 NL Central Odds: +875
Projected Starting Rotation: Kyle Lohse,Matt Garza, Wily Peralta, Mike Fiers, Jimmy Nelson
Key Departures: Yovani Gallardo
Key Additions: Adam Lind

Handicapper’s Take: “With the exception of inking 31-year-old Adam Lind, the Milwaukee Brewers didn't do much of anything that suggests improvement. I'm OK with cutting bait with Yovani Gallardo as he appears to have peaked. Kyle Lohse will once again chew up innings though he's a longshot to do so at an above Read more

Tags: MLB Milwaukee Brewers Andrew Lange


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