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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Preseason Handicapping Part I

08.15.2016     02:03 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Week 1 of the 2016 NFL Preseason is in the books, with underdog bettors showing a modest profit through the weekend’s action.  Non-bettors always seem shocked when I talk about betting (and beating) the preseason.  How can you bet on exhibition games?  I don’t even know the guys on the field in the second half.  Boy, you really must be a degenerate gambler if you’re betting on NFL Preseason.

That couldn’t be further from the truth.  A sharp bettor’s mantra is fairly simple and nearly universal: Bet when you have an edge.  Pass when you don’t.  That holds for regular season NFL and it holds for preseason NFL as well.  And there are no shortage of edges to find when it comes to betting August football. 

In this two part column, I’ll illustrate the strategies that wiseguys use to attack preseason football.  In Part 1 (below), I’ll outline the basic market forces that create preseason pointspreads and show Preseason Handicapping 101 methods to beat those pointspreads.  In Part 2 next week, I’ll take a Deep Dive into some Advanced Betting Strategies for Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




College Football Handicapping: Michigan defense expected to apply constant pressure

08.15.2016     08:23 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Michigan's first-year defensive coordinator Don Brown is noted for being one of the most blitz-happy coaches in college football. Brown's Boston College defense ranked second nationally with 114 tackles for loss in 2015. Last year, the Wolverines ranked fifth in the Big Ten in tackles for loss (88) and sacks (32).


“I said ‘You know, Coach, I’m probably (bringing pressure) 65 percent (of the time).’ And he goes. ‘Nah, I hear 85.’ I think he knew what he was looking for.”

“Dr. Blitz knows what he’s doing, man. That’s what he’s great at. That’s what he hangs his hat on and that’s what we’re going to do. And I’m pretty sure everyone knows it.”






Tags: College Football Michigan Wolverines Big Ten




College Football Gambling: Texas A&M wants to be run-first under new OC

08.15.2016     07:57 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Some good quotes from first-year Texas A&M offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone and his quarterbacks about what to expect from this year's offense. Running the football frequently and effectively looks to be the top priority.

 

“We’d be in scrimmages in the spring and he’d come into our meeting room and say, ‘Alright guys, we’re going to go about 30/70 in terms of throwing the ball vs. running the ball. I know you guys want to throw the ball and air it out for the fans but we’re going to run the ball on pretty much every opportunity we get just so we can go ahead and establish that toughness and build that foundation for our team going forward. That’s what we want to be known for.’

“He’s been saying, everywhere he’s gone, he’s been able to establish that run game. We want to be known not as a spread team that can throw the ball around but as that spread team that can run it right up your throat throughout the entire game and especially in the fourth

Read more



Tags: College Football Texas A&M Aggies SEC




NFL Preseason Free Betting Pick: Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Rams

08.13.2016     07:33 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Dallas at Los Angeles -5 O/U 36
Recommendation: Los Angeles


If you’ve watched preseason games at the Edward Jones Dome in St Louis in recent years, you’ve probably noticed the lethargic crowds in a half-filled stadium.  That won’t be the case on Saturday night in LA, where 90,000 fans are expected to watch their home debut; a rare preseason setting where the energy for the home team is likely to be palpable.

Rams head coach Jeff Fisher isn’t taking this preseason home opener lightly.  After becoming the first NFL coach in 20 years to keep his job following four consecutive losing seasons, Fisher knows that there’s a ton of pressure to achieve in his first year in LA.  His quote: “(We’re not going) 7-9 or 8-8 or 9-7, OK? Or 10-6 for that matter. This team’s too talented. I am not going to settle for that, OK? I know what I am doing.”

Of course, coach-speak can be overrated in August, but there’s no question that LA has expectations this August.  Dallas does not.  The Cowboys lost their first two preseason games last year by a combined 40-13 Read more



Tags: NFL Dallas Cowboys Los Angeles Rams Teddy Covers




NFL Preseason Handicapping: Philadelphia first-year head coach Peterson ready for debut

08.11.2016     08:09 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Good article on Philadelphia's current status heading into tonight's preseason opener against Tampa Bay. The Eagles are dealing with a slew of injuries. The first and second string will play the first half. Rookie quarterback Carson Wentz is expected to play the third quarter. And first-year head coach Doug Peterson will call "scripted plays" to start the first and second halves. Philly is currently -4 home favorites with a total of 37.


"Just kind of keyed up for it and just looking forward [to it]," Pederson said. "There are a lot of things that have to go on between now and then with the planning and scheduling. Just sort of the detailing, even with the players, kind of just managing them. But at the same time, I know personally, it might be a restless night."






Tags: NFL Philadelphia Eagles Tampa Bay Buccaneers




NFL Preseason Handicapping: Denver's Sanchez to start Thursday vs. Chicago

08.09.2016     09:55 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The Denver Broncos are listing Mark Sanchez and Trevor Siemian as "co-starters" even though Siemian has never attempted a pass in a regular season game. Sanchez however will get the start for Thursday's preseason opener at Chicago. He's expected to play the entire first quarter followed by Siemian in the second. With only three quarterbacks currently on the roster, expect to see plenty of rookie Paxton Lynch in the second half.




Tags: NFL Denver Broncos Chicago Bears




Court says no (once again) to New Jersey sports betting

08.09.2016     09:34 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Keep fighting the good fight, New Jersey.


"It's a long shot, but at least we have two dissenting votes on our side," Lesniak said Tuesday morning, after reviewing the Third Circuit's opinion.

"Second, I'm going to test the public's, legislature's and the governor's temperature on repealing all our laws on sports betting and using the extensive police powers of the state to restrict the locations where sports betting can take place, for instance, like we do with gentlemen's clubs. I'll also beef up our office of consumer affairs to closely oversee the operations to protect the consumer."











MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals

08.08.2016     01:01 PM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Cincinnati (Reed) at St. Louis (Wacha) O/U 8.5
Recommendation: St. Louis -1.5 +105


Not quite ready to sell St. Louis yet despite their overwhelming inconsistencies and current 2-6 streak.  The “cornered animal” metaphor fits the Cardinals pretty well tonight as they begin a three game home set with the NL Central last place Reds. Michael Wacha recovered after a brutal first inning last week against Cincinnati and expect to see an outing here more like his 2nd-5th inning stretch where he allowed 0 runs and only two baserunners. Wacha has dominated Cincinnati the past two seasons posting a 1.74 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in five starts against them. He is 4-0 in those games and St. Louis is 5-0. Keeping Reds speedster Billy Hamilton off the bases (21 steals and 15 runs scored since the All-Star Break) will be key for Wacha who has owned Hamilton in their matchups. In 20 ABs against Wacha, Hamilton has one hit and one walk. Joey Votto (1.073 OPS) and Zack Cosart (1.200 OPS) have been the toughest on Wacha and each have 20+ ABs. For St. Louis offensively, seeing lefty Cody Reed again so quickly (he faced Wacha in the Cards' 5-4 win Read more



Tags: MLB Cincinnati Reds St. Louis Cardinals Rob Veno




College Football Betting Preview Podcast 8-4-2016: Tennessee Volunteers

08.04.2016     11:57 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Covering sports from a Vegas perspective for over 20 years, the Sportsmemo Podcast kicks off its 2016-17 preseason football coverage. Join us throughout the summer as the Sportsmemo Handicappers provide listeners with in-depth analysis on NFL and College Football.

Today's segment featured handicapper Drew Martin. Drew continued his coverage of the SEC with in-depth analysis on the Tennessee Volunteers who are the betting favorites to win the East Division.

CLICK HERE TO LISTEN TO DREW'S ANALYSIS

Date: 8/4
Handicapper: Drew Martin
Team: Tennessee Volunteers
2015 Record: 9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS, 7-6 O/U
Season O/U Wins: 9.5ov-120
Odds to Win Title: +1450
Odds to Win SEC East: -125
Odds to Win SEC: +405
Week 1 Line: Tennessee -21.5 vs. Appalachian State

To listen to past football previews be sure to visit the Sportsmemo Podcast archive.




Tags: College Football Tennessee Volunteers SEC Drew Martin




CFL Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Saskatchewan Roughriders at Montreal Alouettes

07.29.2016     09:43 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Saskatchewan +1.5 at Montreal O/U 49.5
Recommendation: Saskatchewan


There are two factors pointing toward betting against the Montreal Alouettes as home favorites tonight. The first is the fact the team is not playing very good football with a 1-3 SU record including 0-2 SU/ATS at home. The offense remains an injury-riddled mess as the Alouettes have failed to score more than 17 points in each of their last three games. Two of their top three receivers, S.J. Green and Kenny Stafford, remain out along with lead RB Tyrell Sutton. QB Kevin Glenn has been inconsistent and the offensive line in front of him has not played well by failing to open up holes for the ground attack and also allowing too many sacks. The second reason for the “fade” is that the scheduling spot couldn’t be more brutal. The Alouettes played on Monday night in Toronto and now must play just four days later leaving them with very little time to prepare and heal injuries.

On the flip side, Saskatchewan comes into this game with some confidence as they snapped its three-game losing skid last week with a 30-29 win over Ottawa. Saskatchewan QB Mitchell Gale Read more



Tags: CFL Saskatchewan Roughriders Montreal Alouettes



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June

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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Ian Cameron, and Drew Martin. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Podcast Monday-Friday at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Podcast?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's podcast archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, CFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Jun 29, 2017 08:43 AM.