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College Football Betting: Northern Illinois poised for another big season in the MAC

08.17.2015     08:28 AM     Alex Smith     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Alex Smith

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Northern Illinois Huskies (2014 Record:11-3 SU, 6-7 ATS)
5Dimes Season O/U Win Total: 8.5u-165
Head Coach: Rod Carey

The Turn of the Century has brought a world of change to DeKalb as the Huskies of Northern Illinois have spent most of the last decade as a power in the Mid-American Conference. The Huskies pulled off another double-digit winning season in 2014, going 11-3 and winning the MAC title as they crushed Bowling Green 51-17 in a mega revenge spot after their disappointing 47-27 loss to the Falcons in Detroit back in 2013. Head coach Rod Carey returns for his third season in DeKalb and will have a mix of key starters returning, solid depth players, and several key recruits coming in to solidify the future.

Quarterback Drew Hare beat out two other quality arms to win the starting job last season, and Hare will return to helm an offense that averaged 31 points and 441 yards per game. With running back Cameron Stingly now running over tacklers as a member of the Pittsburgh Steelers, the leading returning rusher for NIU is Hare, who put up 900 yards on the ground. Juniors Joel Bouganon and Keith Read more



Tags: College Football Northern Illinois Huskies MAC Alex B. Smith




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Preseason Week 1 Betting Recap

08.17.2015     08:03 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Week 1 of the NFL Preseason is behind us.  The NFL season win totals futures markets are already reacting to what we’ve seen, showing some modest movement off the successes and failures of the first and second string units.  We can expect that initial line movement to continue unabated if we see more of the same from those units in Week 2.  In this week’s Wiseguy Report, I’ll take a quick tour around the NFL, specifically focusing on any misleading stats or under-the radar performances from the 16 games that we just saw.

Let’s start with a brief overview of the results.  It was a strong Week 1 for the betting favorites.  There were three games that closed right around pick ‘em with no chalk to speak of: KC at Arizona, Washington at Cleveland and Miami at Chicago.  Of the 13 games that closed with a legitimate favorite of at least -1 or higher here in Las Vegas, the favorites dominated to the tune of 10-3 ATS (counting Jacksonville -1.5 as a win in their two point victory over Pittsburgh).  All three underdogs that covered won the game in SU fashion (Carolina beat Buffalo, Green Bay won at New England and Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




NFL Preseason Gambling: Home teams go 10-6 ATS in Week 1

08.17.2015     07:05 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
A quick look at some of the betting numbers for Week 1 of the NFL Preseason.

Home teams went 10-6 against the spread.

Totals went 8-7-1 over/under.

The average game score was 39.5 points per game.

In 13 of the 16 games, there were more points scored in the first half. One contest was tied at halftime.

There was an average of 24 points scored in the first half.

There was an average 15.4 points score in the second half.




Tags: NFL




NFL Preseason Free Betting Pick: Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks

08.14.2015     10:25 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Denver +5 at Seattle O/U 36.5
Recommendation: Denver


The betting markets are infatuated with Pete Carroll’s preseason track record in Seattle; installing the Seahawks as five point favorites against the Broncos.  And it’s easy to understand why the markets love Carroll in August, particularly playing at home.  They won their two home preseason games last year by 41-14 and 34-6 margins, won 40-10 and 22-6 in home preseason games in 2013, and won 27-17 and 21-3 in home preseason games in 2012.

But that’s all in the rear view mirror now – the conditions that existed in Seattle in recent years just don’t exist this year.  That makes the Seahawks a poor favorite for their 2015 preseason debut on Friday.   What has changed?  A LOT!

Fresh off back-2-back Super Bowl appearances, the Seahawks have nothing to prove in August.  Seattle has been one of the deepest teams in the league in recent seasons, giving them great depth in the second half of these preseason games.   That’s not the case anymore, with the Seahawks up against the salary cap – this is NOT a Read more



Tags: NFL Denver Broncos Seattle Seahawks Teddy Covers




NFL Preseason Betting: Seattle Seahawks sit key players due to injury

08.14.2015     07:59 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Looks as if the Seattle Seahawks will sit a handful of key players -- including a majority of their secondary -- due to injury for tonight's preseason opener vs. Denver. Pete Carroll said those starters that will play will only see a few snaps including quarterback Russell Wilson. The Seahawks are currently -5 home favorites over the Broncos.




Tags: NFL Seattle Seahawks Denver Broncos




MLB Handicapping: St. Louis Cardinals continue to win, defy logic

08.14.2015     07:19 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Interesting article courtesy of Grantland on the St. Louis Cardinals and their continued dominance. Some of their achievements (73-41, +24 units) make sense statistically. For example, the Cards' Pythagorean W-L (72-42) is right in line with their over record. Outscore your opponents by a run per game and you're going to post a really good record. But how they got that +1.0 run differential is what the article questions. For example, the pitching staff is on pace to post the best left-on-base percentage of all-time (81.0%). Their current ERA (2.63) is the best we've seen since 1972 which leads us to ERA-FIP differential. The Royals have the second biggest mark in the league (3.61 ERA/3.93 FIP = -0.31 diff) whereas the Cardinals own an eye-popping -0.69 diff. Basically, the pitching staff is good but no different than a lot of other "good" staffs with the exception of not letting dudes score when they get on base. There are other factors as well that appear to straddle the line between skill (the "Cardinal way") and luck (probably not sustainable). Either Read more



Tags: MLB St. Louis Cardinals




NFL Preseason Free Betting Pick: Washington Redskins at Cleveland Browns

08.13.2015     10:42 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Washington at Cleveland -2 O/U 37.5
Recommendation: Over


We’ve got all the makings of a relatively high scoring game in Cleveland tonight.  Last year’s preseason meeting was a 24-23 game that flew Over the total, and there’s no reason to expect a dramatically different result tonight.

There’s a legitimate battle for the Browns starting QB job between Josh McCown and Johnny Manziel, regardless of Mike Pettine’s comments to the contrary.  Expect both guys to get an extended look this evening, with McCown likely to play a full quarter while Manziel could get two full quarters worth of action.  Veteran backup (with solid preseason histories) Connor Shaw and Thaddeus Lewis round out the QB depth chart.

That’s bad news for Washington’s banged up secondary, with numerous key players expected to sit this evening.  By the second half of this game, Redskins head coach Jay Gruden won’t have many good options defensively against the Browns downfield passing game.

But Washington is primed to score a handful of touchdowns here themselves, with one of the better QB Read more



Tags: NFL Washington Redskins Cleveland Browns Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: How to bet NFL Season O/U Wins Part II

08.10.2015     10:17 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Last week in this space, I looked back at last year’s final NFL standings and discussed the impact of strength of schedule models on those results.  I differentiated between mainstream widely available numbers for the 2014 strength of schedule (simply adding up wins and losses for every opponent) and my own formula, relying on power rating numbers from the week that the game was played. 

The goal was simple -- getting more accurate numbers to properly assess last year’s results in strength of schedule context as a starting point for 2015.

We’re done with last year now. This week, I’ll focus on the 2015 NFL strength of schedule as they relate to season win totals.  Once again, my goal is to differentiate between the mainstream numbers and the meaningful ones.

Google ‘2015 NFL Strength of Schedule’ and you’ll find countless charts exactly like this one.
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (.579)
2. Cincinnati Bengals (.563)
3. Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Las Vegas




College Football Gambling: Vanderbilt's Mason takes over as defensive coordinator

08.06.2015     08:04 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
During James Franklin's three-year tenure at Vanderbilt, the Commodores were able to field an above average defense. They allowed 21.6 ppg his first season, 18.7 ppg in 2012, and 24.6 ppg in 2013. Following Franklin's departure to Penn State, Vandy took a huge step back under Derrick Mason. Last season, they allowed 33.3 ppg (106th nationally) despite a relatively soft schedule that featured only four ranked opponents and no Auburn, Alabama, or Texas A&M three teams that averaged 35+ ppg. During the offseason, Mason fired both coordinators and will take over as DC. Vanderbilt is one of only a handful of teams that returns double-digit defensive starters.


"I put a lot of pressure on myself," Mason said Wednesday as the Commodores reported for fall practice. "I think this team is tired of the talk, the outside banter about who we are, what we are. For us ... that's motivated. I'm as energized as I've been in a couple years. So for

Read more



Tags: College Football Vanderbilt Commodores SEC




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers

08.05.2015     07:59 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Kansas City (Cueto) -160 at Detroit (Boyd) O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Under


Johnny Cueto just pulled off arguably the toughest two venues in MLB with an 8-inning, 0 ER effort at Coors Field followed by a 6-inning, 3 ER American League debut at Toronto. I think we'll see Cueto's dominance cool off some with the move to the AL but his profile is a good one against a right-handed heavy Tigers lineup. Keep in mind that against right-handers Miguel Cabrera (DL) and Yoenis Céspedes (traded to Mets) batted a combined .335 with 26 home runs. Rookie Matt Boyd will make his Tigers debut tonight as he squares off against Kansas City. Boyd, a lefty, came over in the David Price trade. He made two starts for Toronto in the Rogers Centre where he allowed five home runs in 6.2 innings which is a concern but his Minor League numbers (2.38 ERA, 9.38 K per 9) suggest he's got some upside. His fly ball tendencies and coming from the left side put him a better position to succeed tonight in Comerica against the Royals.  And behind the dish tonight will be Marty Foster who over his last 116 games dating back to 2012 has delivered a solid 57% unders. He's Read more



Tags: MLB Kansas City Royals Detroit Tigers Andrew Lange



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