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November

28

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CFL Week 5 Betting News and Notes

07.30.2014     07:18 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Here is my Week 5 CFL News and Notes as we examine each team from a betting perspective.

Toronto Argonauts (1-4 SU, 1-4 ATS)
Toronto just can’t be expected to be competitive and move the football offensively until they get some of their injury-decimated receiving corps back. Saskatchewan drilled Toronto 37-9 on Saturday night as quarterback Ricky Ray and the Argos’ struggling offense once again sputtered with stalled drives, turnovers, and penalties throughout the game. They got off to a horrible start an interception and fumble on their first two drives which led directly to Saskatchewan touchdowns. The revamped defense struggled and is being asked to carry a team that when healthy is very capable offensively. There is a possibility that not a single one of Toronto’s top four wideouts will return vs. Montreal. Head coach Scott Milanovich held an impromptu meeting with the team’s veteran players prior to the blowout loss against Saskatchewan and it didn’t help. Toronto is saying the right things this week but a third straight road game in as many weeks against a rested and ready Montreal squad won’t be Read more


Tags: CFL Ian Cameron




NFL Gambling: A look back at last year's 20* winner on Kansas City Over 7.5 wins

07.29.2014     07:19 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Below is Teddy Covers' write-up for last year's NFL Season O/U Wins Report 20* winner. This year's report is currently available for purchase and will be released this afternoon. Teddy includes in-depth written analysis on all of plays.


20* Big Ticket: Kansas City OVER 7.5 Wins

The Chiefs are the poster child for the ‘expected to be the most improved team in the NFL’ category.  Quite literally, just about every statistic and metric that we have to predict NFL success or failure points towards an immediate turnaround in Kansas City this fall.  And when we start to break down the offseason moves for KC, the case for dramatic improvement is perfectly clear.

It all starts with last year, when KC was an injury riddled mess with a lame duck head coach and a consistent void at the quarterback position.  The Chiefs were tied dead last in the NFL in turnover margin in 2012, finishing with an average of -1.5 turnover differential per game.  Only five players started all 16 games; fewer than the number of players who finished the season on injured Read more



Tags: NFL Kansas City Chiefs Teddy Covers




NFL Gambling: The impact quarterbacks have on Season Over/Under Win totals Part I

07.28.2014     06:59 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
I’ve been writing about NFL Season Win Totals for the last few weeks, using what I call “advanced metric schedule analysis.”  This week, the time has come to write about another stage of the 2014 pre-preseason team analysis that affects every win total on the board – quarterbacks.

Why quarterbacks?  Because more than ever, in the modern ‘pass happy’ era of NFL Football, the quarterback is the most important position on any team.  Of course a great quarterback can’t be great without a decent receiving corps or a decent offensive line, so those must be included in the equation when discussing quarterbacks. 

Here’s what I wrote last year in this space:

“The pecking order for NFL quarterbacks is well established.  Most of the best quarterbacks play for the best teams.  Peyton Manning in Denver, Eli Manning in New York, Tom Brady in New England, Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay, Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh, Drew Brees in New Orleans and Joe Flacco in Baltimore all wear Super Bowl rings.  All seven guys play for teams that are perennial playoff teams, and all seven of Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




NFL Gambling: Using Strength of Schedule to Handicap Season Over/Under Wins Part II

07.28.2014     06:48 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Two weeks ago in this space, I looked back at last year’s final NFL standings and discussed the impact of strength of schedule models on those results.  I differentiated between mainstream widely available numbers for the 2013 strength of schedule (simply adding up wins and losses for every opponent) and my own formula, relying on power rating numbers from the week that the game was played. 

The goal was simple – getting more accurate numbers to properly assess last year’s results in a strength of schedule context as a starting point for 2014.

We’re done with last year now. This week, I’ll focus on the 2014 NFL strength of schedule as they relate to season win totals.  Once again, my goal is to differentiate between the mainstream numbers and the meaningful ones.

Google “2014 NFL Strength of Schedule” and you’ll find countless charts exactly like the one below…

2014 NFL Strength of Schedule (Generic)
Rank
Team
Opponent Win Pct.
1
Oakland Raiders
0.578
2
Denver Broncos
0.570
3
St. Louis Rams
0.564
4
San Diego Chargers
0.563
4
San Francisco 49ers
0.563
6
Seattle Seahawks
0.561
7
Kansas City Chiefs
0.559
8
Arizona Cardinals
0.547
9
New York Jets
0.520
10
New England Patriots
0.516
11
Atlanta Falcons
0.512
12
Miami Dolphins
0.508
13
Green Bay Packers
0.504
14
Buffalo Bills
0.500
15
Chicago Bears
0.496
16
Detroit Lions
0.492
17
Washington Redskins
0.490
18
Dallas Cowboys
0.488
19
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
0.484
20
Philadelphia Eagles
0.479
21
Minnesota Vikings
0.477
22
Carolina Panthers
0.473
23
Cincinnati Bengals
0.469
23
New Orleans Saints
0.469
23
Pittsburgh Steelers
0.469
26
Cleveland Browns
0.465
26
New York Giants
0.465
28
Baltimore Ravens
0.461
29
Jacksonville Jaguars
0.453
30
Houston Texans
0.441
31
Tennessee Titans
0.438
32
Indianapolis Colts
0.430


The Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




CFL Handicapper Free Play: Calgary Stampeders @ Edmonton Eskimos

07.24.2014     08:23 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Calgary at Edmonton O/U 49.5

Recommendation: Under

There has already been a 3 point drop in this total which now sits at 49.5 for the most part but I still think we have enough wiggle room to give the Under a small recommendation in this Battle Of Alberta with current possession of 1st place in the West Division at stake between the 3-0 Calgary Stampeders and the 4-0 Edmonton Eskimos--a game that can be seen live on ESPN2 tonight. The defenses have led the way and have been dominant for both teams this season and I see no reason for that to change tonight. Calgary has yielded just 30 points in their first three games combined which equates to a 10 points per game average which is extraordinary while Edmonton has given up 58 points in their first four games for a very impressive 14.5 points per game average of their own. Both teams are capable of playing blanket coverage down the field in the secondary as well as over the middle and they can both stop the run. Calgary and Edmonton are ranked 1st and 2nd respectively in points allowed and rushing yards allowed in the CFL. Read more


Tags: CFL Calgary Stampeders Edmonton Eskimos Ian Cameron




CFL Week 4 Betting News and Notes

07.23.2014     07:33 PM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Here is my CFL Week 4 News & Notes as I take a look at each team in the CFL providing observations, analysis and a glimpse into what is to come for all 9 CFL teams following Week 4.

Toronto Argonauts (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS)

The frustrations were clearly evident with the Argos after their painful 18-17 loss to the expansion Ottawa Redblacks in what was Ottawa’s first home game since rejoining the CFL this season. Toronto finally got a strong performance from their rebuilt defense but oddly enough it was QB Ricky Ray and the offense (the supposed strongest part of the team) that simply couldn’t get anything going as they sputtered with stalled drives, turnovers and penalties throughout the game. It was a game that was there for the taking for Toronto but they just couldn’t make any key plays to turn it into a win. Now they sit at 1-3 after wasting a great performance from the defense and now must face the well-rested and likely angry Saskatchewan Roughriders who are coming off their bye and it’s worth noting Saskatchewan lost their game before the bye to this very Argos team in Toronto 48-15 Read more


Tags: CFL Ian Cameron




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Tampa Bay Rays at St. Louis Cardinals

07.22.2014     08:59 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Tampa Bay (Odorizzi) +140 at St. Louis (Wainwright) O/U 7
Recommendation: Tampa Bay


In general, I’m comfortable laying a bit more juice in the second half of the MLB season than I am in the first half, simply because there tend to be a good handful of pretty bad teams that stop showing up after the All-Star Break.  These are teams that are profitable to fade at every reasonable opportunity, even if you have to lay a price to do so.
 
For example, my clients and I bet against the Rockies last night, laying in the -140/-145 range with a road favorite.  Washington won 7-2 as the Rockies stumbled and bumbled their way to a sixth consecutive defeat.

At the same time, you’ll find some very attractively priced ‘live’ underdogs post-break, and I tend to widen my range towards bigger dogs like this one.  There are consistently solid opportunities for fading favorites that shouldn’t be laying big prices (think 2012 Red Sox Read more


Tags: MLB Tampa Rays St. Louis Cardinals Teddy Covers




College Football Betting: LSU confident OC Cameron will make winner out of new QB

07.18.2014     08:01 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
On yesterday's Sportsmemo Podcast we talked a little bit about LSU's precarious quarterback situation with Zach Mettenberger now graduated and three others transferring to new schools. That leads the Tigers with only two scholarship signal callers (sophomore Anthony Jennings and freshman Brandon Harris) plus a few walk-ons. Jennings played some last year (29 attempts) but Les Miles is reportedly "in love with" Harris. And speaking of Miles, he of course doesn't seem concerned with any the "issues" facing this year's squad. For example, since 2011 21 LSU players have left early for the NFL draft. That's more than double the amount of Alabama (9). Perhaps having Cam Cameron as your offensive coordinator is helping alleviate the sting of losing all of that talent. In Cameron's first season as OC, LSU's offensive numbers were significantly improved across the board compared to recent seasons (see stats below). LSU is currently the third choice to win Read more


Tags: College Football LSU Tigers SEC




Football Betting Podcast 7-17-2014 with Sportsmemo Handicappers Brent Crow and Ian Cameron

07.17.2014     10:44 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Thursday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured Sportsmemo Handicappers Brent Crow and Ian Cameron. Brent and host Andrew Lange talked SEC quarterbacks while Ian previewed Week 4 of the CFL.

Today's segments
Full Show

Brent Crow - SEC Quarterbacks

Ian Cameron - CFL Week 4

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.



Tags: College Football SEC CFL Brent Crow Ian Cameron




MLB Handicapping: Schedule becomes Baltimore's biggest obstacle

07.17.2014     06:00 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The Baltimore Orioles own a four-game lead in the American League East and are a -120 favorite to win the division (5Dimes) but due to their second half strength of schedule, bettors may want to take a look at the odds for the other four teams (a bet on the field is only -120). The O's open the second half with a 10-game West Coast road trip against Oakland (No. 1 in MLB in run differential), LA Angels (No. 2 run diff), and Seattle (No. 4 run diff). They then return home to play six more against the Angels and Mariners. Then there is a make-up game vs. Washington (No. 3 run diff) and three-game sets at Toronto and vs. St. Louis. As pointed out my ESPN's Buster Olney, Baltimore's first 26 out of the All-Star break are against teams with records of .500 or better. And we'll also point out their 36/32 road game/home game split as well as the seven-game road trip against the Blue Jays and Yankees to close the season – which could determine the East winner and/or a wild card berth.



Tags: MLB



19

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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, Ian Cameron, and Paul Stone. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Nov 28, 2014 01:34 PM.