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College Football Betting: Know your conference realignment
06.10.2013 07:40 AM
Printer Friendly
We have a ways to go until the college football season but bettors would be wise to familiarize themselves with all of the conference realignments. Here is a brief overview of the changes...
Sun Belt Defectors
- Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee, North Texas, and UT-San Antonio are all headed to the C-USA.
Sun Belt Newbies
- Georgia State and Texas State will join the Sun Belt.
Introducing The American
- Essentially a combination of the Big East and C-USA. East Carolina, Tulane, Tulsa and Navy will join next year. This year's league will feature 10 teams: Cincinnati, UConn, Houston, Louisville, Memphis, Rutgers, SMU, USF, Temple, and UCF.
Indie
- Idaho and New Mexico State will play as Independents.
Mountain West Newbies
- San Jose State and Utah State left the now defunct WAC for the Mountain West.
Big East to ACC
- Syracuse and Pitt left the now defunct Big East for the ACC.
Transition
- Georgia Southern, Appalachian State, and Old Dominion will being their
Read more
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NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs Betting Free Play: Pittsburgh Penguins at Boston Bruins
06.07.2013 03:02 PM
ICC
Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC
Pittsburgh +100 at Boston O/U 5.5
Recommendation: Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh faces a near impossible hole trailing Boston 3-0 in the Eastern Conference Finals. However, I’m willing to make a smaller wager and recommendation on the Penguins tonight if for no other reason than pride. The Penguins have a roster filled with intense competitors including Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Jarome Iginla and Brenden Morrow and I highly doubt any of them want their amazing season to end in a sweep considering the Penguins were the best team in the Eastern Conference throughout the regular season. There is no doubt it was a crushing, gut-wrenching double overtime loss for Pittsburgh in Game 3. The Penguins outshot the Bruins 54-40 but couldn’t find a way to put enough pucks behind Bruins goalie Tuukka Rask who was phenomenal in the win. Pittsburgh could be completely demoralized but I think there is enough veteran players and leadership to keep them in a positive frame of mind for Game 4.
Pittsburgh’s power play simply MUST get going after being held scoreless in the first three games. The reason Pittsburgh might finally break out of their
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NBA Finals Handicapping: Statline Data for San Antonio Spurs vs. Miami Heat
06.06.2013 07:21 AM
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Stat Intelligence
It’s been awhile since we’ve looked at these. As was the format during March Madness, we look at regular season performance in two-point defense, rebounding differential, turnover differential, made treys per game, and pace ranking in the league. These numbers haven’t been adjusted from the playoffs. We’re looking to get a sense of skill sets.
Spurs.: 47% two-point defense, +1.2 rebounding, +0.2 TO’S, 8.1 treys, #6 pace
Heat: 47% two-point defense, -1.5 rebounding, +1.7 TO’S, 8.7 treys, #23 pace
*Most playoff teams were at 47% on deuces allowed, so we’re talking about playoff caliber teams who aren’t necessarily terrifying inside the arc. Indiana was the best of the playoff teams at 44%. Oklahoma City was best in the West at 45%.
*You won’t be surprised to see Miami trailing in the rebound category. They tend to blow off offensive rebounds to get everybody back to defend. We saw in the series finale vs.
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MLB Handicapping: Texas' Ogando returns from DL
06.05.2013 07:39 AM
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Texas
(Ogando) at
Boston
(Lackey) -120 O/U 9
Texas' Alexi Ogando
returns to the rotation
after a stint on the DL due to biceps tendinitis. In his last start back on May 15, Ogando's fastball velocity was way down. It would probably be best to take a wait-and-see approach with Ogando though we would expect to see an uptick in velocity after the layoff. Due to all of their injuries, the Rangers have been forced to get creative with their rotation – Harrison, Feliz, and Lewis out; Grimm, Tepesch, and Wolf in. Despite allowing 17 runs yesterday, Texas' pitching has been nothing short of stellar with an AL-leading 3.58 ERA.
"I expect him to pick up where he left off, probably with a bigger smile on his face," Rangers pitching coach Mike Maddux said. "He was feeling pretty good about himself, but he had to battle
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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: NFL Season Over/Under Wins
06.03.2013 11:43 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
In last week’s column, I wrote about my personal process for assessing NFL Season Win Totals, calling those totals “the single most profitable set of wagers that I’ve found in my 15 years as a professional bettor living in Las Vegas.” I also wrote in detail about the first step of that process – identifying accurate strength of schedule numbers from last year, to better gauge whether teams overachieved or underachieved in 2012; giving me a superior starting point to begin my analysis for this year.
I closed out the article with these two paragraphs:
“The New York Giants faced single toughest schedule from last year based on my numbers on the weeks the games were played. The Saints weren’t far behind. Arizona, San Francisco, Tennessee, Baltimore and St Louis all faced abnormally tough slates.
“On the easy side, the Colts, Texans and Bengals all stood out; by far the three easiest schedules in the league. Miami, Atlanta and San Diego also had much easier than average slates. In my next column, I’ll write about the next step in the process -- identifying accurate
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MLB Betting: Underreported Story...Tampa Bay Rays an Offensive Juggernaut!
06.03.2013 07:11 AM
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Stat Intelligence
For quite a few years now, the Tampa Bay Rays have been stereotyped as a small market team that has to manufacture little advantages at the edges to compete in the tough AL East. There was a Moneyball type book written about them. The manager is considered by some to be a tactical wizard. The team found hard throwing young pitchers to shut down opponents. They’d try to invent enough runs to outscore what those solid pitchers were allowing.
Because images are hard to shake, particularly images that have been accurate for a few years…changes in form often go unnoticed or underreported when they happen. That’s the case right now with the Tampa Bay Rays…who have become an offensive JUGGERNAUT over the past month and a half.
Most of this year’s coverage in the blog has concerned 5-inning results. I’m going to focus on full 9-inning numbers today because they tell the story so well…and because most of you reading this are still seeing the
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NBA Betting Recap: Indiana Pacers take down Miami Heat, force Game 7
06.02.2013 07:25 AM
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I said I wouldn’t get too wound up in a Miami Heat playoff series until they faced an elimination game. They’d shown a tendency to pace themselves all year. We learned last year that they're not necessarily vulnerable when they’re looking vulnerable.
NOW, they’re vulnerable!
They still have some margin for error because of home court advantage. And, it’s tough to expect that Dwyane Wade…and Chris Bosh…and Ray Allen will all be as worthless Monday night as they were this evening. LeBron James is very likely to get some help. If he doesn’t, then it will be the Pacers who advance to face the San Antonio Spurs. It’s a team game. LeBron and a bunch of half-hearted, shot missing, non-rebounders isn’t much of a team.
Reasons for hope for Indiana:
*The grueling pace of this series…every other day of intense physicality…may be having a much bigger impact on Bosh, Wade, and Allen than
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NBA Betting Recap: This Time, Miami Rebounds (literally)
05.31.2013 07:43 AM
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Stat Intelligence
The Miami Heat said they’d make it a point of emphasis to prevent the Indiana Heat from owning the battle of the boards in Game Five of the Eastern Conference Finals. They certainly did that, particularly when it came to Indiana’s penchant for offensive rebounds.
Offensive Boards
Game Four: Indiana 15, Miami 12 (Total—Indiana 49, Miami 30)
Game Five: Indiana 6, Miami 6 (Total---Indiana 33, Miami 32)
Denied second chance points (and the potential for foul calls on second chance attempts), Indiana’s scoring dropped 20 from the 99 they posted back in Game Four. Miami doesn’t have to win this stat to win the series. They just have to neutralize Indiana’s advantage. The Pacers have little chance to fully compete if they‘re NOT winning rebounding.
That can also be expressed in our “Imposing of Will” stat that showed such dominance for the Pacers in the last game. Let’s update the
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MLB Betting Notes: Yankees Bats Cooling Off
05.30.2013 07:55 AM
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Stat Intelligence
Through the early part of the season, there was some media coverage about how the “replacement” guys on the Yankees were putting runs on the board in the absence of the big name stars who were injured. That and great pitching helped the Yankees stay in the fight for first place in the AL East even while shorthanded. The Yankees remain only a game out of first place right now after both they and Boston lost Wednesday evening.
Scoring has hit a wall in recent weeks. There are a lot of ways to show that. Since I’m working hard each day to log all the five-inning results from pitching and hitting perspectives…I can show you what the slump looks like through that lens.
*Remember that make-up doubleheader the Yankees had to play in Cleveland where they kind of “traded” gentlemen’s shutouts for a split? The Yanks scored 0 and 1 in the first five innings of those two games.
*New York came home to play Seattle after that. They could only manage
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Rugby teams rely on gambling revenue to stay afloat
05.29.2013 12:32 PM
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Australia's National Rugby League has a pretty interesting relationship with sports betting. For starters, a week doesn't go by where there isn't some sort of scandal involving
point shaving
or player publically admitting to being a
degenerate gambler
. There are a lot of folks who want to rid the league of its gambling ties but sportsbooks
sponsor
various teams – many of which
need the revenue
in order to remain profitable.
“At a revenue level, more than half of the clubs in the NRL have gambling sponsors. Some gambling companies support two or three teams. If you close off a revenue stream, there needs to be an alternative. Given how much is at stake with gambling, you
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