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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: American League Preview

04.06.2015     08:01 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The college basketball season is in the rear view mirror now.  The NBA Playoffs don’t start until next weekend.   That can only mean one thing – baseball is here!  In this week’s Wiseguy Report, I’ll be breaking down the American League, team by team in overview fashion.  I’ll do the same thing next week for the National League.  The goal?  Identify potential market inefficiencies right from the get-go; looking for overvalued and undervalued commodities.  Teams are listed in alphabetical order, by division.

The Baltimore Orioles were, by far, the single most profitable team to support in MLB last year, yet the betting markets aren’t particularly enamored with Buck Showalter’s squad heading into 2015.  The Orioles had the 2nd biggest gap between their FIP (fielding independent pitching) and their ERA last year, a strong indicator for future regression.   And the best home run hitting team in baseball lost big bats Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis in the offseason.  That being said, the Orioles have been consistently undervalued in recent seasons and they Read more



Tags: MLB Teddy Covers




Sportsmemo's MLB Betting Preview: Seattle Mariners

04.01.2015     07:30 AM     Printer Friendly
copy_mlb_preview_2015].jpg

With one of the top pitching staffs in the American League, the Seattle Mariners are projected to contend for a postseason spot. Whether or not they can produce enough offensively remains the big question.

Seattle Mariners 
2014 W-L:
87-75
2014 O/U: 66-88-8
2014 Profits: +3.6
2015 O/U Wins: 86.5
2015 AL West Odds: +160
Projected Starting Rotation: Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma, James Paxton, JA Happ, Taijuan Walker
Key Departures: Seth Smith, Corey Hart, Kendrys Morales
Key Additions: Brandon Maurer, Nelson Cruz 
 
Handicapper's Take: "What the Chicago Cubs are to the National League, the Mariners are to the American League in terms of failed expectations.  Ironically, both teams feature heightened forecasts for the 2015 season.  The Mariners are projected to be well over .500 and a co-betting favorite with the Los Angeles Angels to win the American League West.  Pitching will once Read more



Tags: MLB Seattle Mariners Erin Rynning




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Bettors gear up for Final Four

03.30.2015     08:17 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The dust has settled from the madness that is March, with only four teams still standing in the NCAA Tournament.  And frankly, since the insanity of that opening Thursday morning when top seeds were falling like flies (Baylor, Iowa State, SMU), this tournament has not seen a bevy of upsets. 

In fact, the Vegas favorite advanced in 48 of the last 54 Big Dance games (48-6 SU, not ATS) since midday on the opening day of the tourney.  For only the second time this century, three #1 seeds reached the Final Four.  In this week’s Wiseguy Report I’m going to try to answer the question that everybody is asking: can anybody beat Kentucky; winners of 38 consecutive ballgames since the start of the season.

Since Kentucky is the most hyped team in recent memory, I’ll start with the Wildcats first.  Yes, this team won the title in 2012, going 4-2 ATS in the process during the Big Dance.  Yes, they reached the championship game last year; an undervalued commodity in March as they covered all four pointspreads on the way to the Final Four.  

But this year’s Kentucky team has simply gotten too much Read more



Tags: College Basketball Kentucky Wildcats Wisconsin Badgers Duke Blue Devils Michigan State Spartans Teddy Covers Las Vegas




First weekend in May promises to be huge for Las Vegas

03.30.2015     07:20 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
If you're into sports betting and thinking about making a trip to Las Vegas the spring, the first weekend in May looks to be ideal. For starters you have both NBA and NHL playoffs in full swing. Then there's the Kentucky Derby. And to close out the evening one of the biggest fights in history with Mayweather vs. Pacquiao at the MGM Grand.


“Other than Super Bowl Sunday, the single day will be as big as we’ve written in years.  Look for May 2 to be approaching the Super Bowl handle on Super Bowl Sunday, and that’s saying a lot.”






Tags: Las Vegas




College Basketball Betting Free Play: Xavier Musketeers vs. Arizona Wildcats

03.26.2015     07:01 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Xavier vs. Arizona -10.5 O/U 135.5
Recommendation: Arizona


My power ratings show Arizona right there with Duke as the second best team in the country.  The Wildcats are playing in a friendly, familiar venue in LA; certain to enjoy significant crowd support compared to Xavier in this game, to go along with their short travel time.  Their coach, Sean Miller, is arguably the best coach in college basketball never to reach the Final Four.  This team is a juggernaut, plain and simple, and the PAC 12’s 7-1 ATS mark over the opening weekend of the Big Dance speaks volumes about how undervalued this conference is on the national stage.

Xavier is no juggernaut.  The Big East really wasn’t very good this year – it was Villanova and then everybody else.  The Musketeers are tough and well coached, but they finished sixth in this mediocre conference with a 9-9 record in Big East play.  They are here only because of the ‘luck of the draw’; facing an Ole Miss team off extensive travel on short rest in the first round, followed by upstart #14 seed Georgia State in the Round of 32.

The Read more



Tags: College Basketball Xavier Musketeers Arizona Wildcats Teddy Covers




Sportsmemo's MLB Betting Preview: Detroit Tigers

03.26.2015     06:18 AM     Printer Friendly
copy_mlb_preview_2015].jpg

Following the loss of three key pitchers over the last two seasons, the Detroit Tigers find themselves as “just another AL Central team” after years of domination.

Detroit Tigers
2014 W-L:
90-72
2014 O/U: 84-72-6
2014 Profits: -3.8
2015 O/U Wins: 84.5
2015 AL Central Odds: +205
Projected Starting Rotation: David Price, Justin Verlander, Anibal Sanchez, Shane Greene, Alfredo Simon
Key Departures: Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello
Key Additions: Yoenis Cespedes

Handicapper’s Take: “The Tigers won 90 games again last year while winning their fourth consecutive American League Central title.  Yet their supporters lost money for the full season last year; just as they did in 2013 and 2012 – the only profitable season for their backers during this four-year span of division domination came back in 2011.  Why can’t the Tigers show a profit for their backers even when they are winning division Read more



Tags: MLB Detroit Tigers Teddy Covers




Sportsmemo's MLB Betting Preview: San Diego Padres

03.25.2015     02:43 PM     Printer Friendly
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It's time to win in San Diego -- or at least score some more runs. The Padres brought in some big-name bats as well as ace James Shields which makes them instant contenders in the NL West.

San Diego Padres
2014 W-L:
77-85
2014 O/U: 61-95
2014 Profits: -9
2015 O/U Wins: 84.5
2015 NL West Odds: +375
Projected Starting Rotation: James Shields, Andrew Cashner, Ian Kennedy, Tyson Ross, Odrisamer Despaigne
Key Departures: Seth Smith
Key Additions: James Shields, Will Myers, Justin Upton, Matt Kemp, Derek Norris, Will Middlebrooks

Handicapper's Take: "After years of trying to do it with pitching and defense, the Padres committed to offense in a big way by completely overhauling their roster during the offseason. They also spent a ton of money to do so. Derek Norris, Will Middlebrooks, Wil Myers, Matt Kemp, and Justin Upton by default means a lot more runs -- even at Petco Park. And that should in turn mean more wins for a franchise Read more



Tags: MLB San Diego Padres Ian Cameron




Sportsmemo's MLB Betting Preview: Milwaukee Brewers

03.23.2015     10:49 AM     Printer Friendly
copy_mlb_preview_2015].jpg

Despite last season's second half swoon, the Milwaukee Brewers were rather quiet this offseason. The starting rotation and lineup has the potential to be above NL-average but will they both click at the same time and more importantly produce for an entire season? Oddsmakers say no with the Brew Crew projected to be sub.-500.  

Milwaukee Brewers
2014 W-L:
82-80
2014 O/U: 75-83-4
2014 Profits: -7.2
2015 O/U Wins: 79
2015 NL Central Odds: +875
Projected Starting Rotation: Kyle Lohse,Matt Garza, Wily Peralta, Mike Fiers, Jimmy Nelson
Key Departures: Yovani Gallardo
Key Additions: Adam Lind

Handicapper’s Take: “With the exception of inking 31-year-old Adam Lind, the Milwaukee Brewers didn't do much of anything that suggests improvement. I'm OK with cutting bait with Yovani Gallardo as he appears to have peaked. Kyle Lohse will once again chew up innings though he's a longshot to do so at an above Read more



Tags: MLB Milwaukee Brewers Andrew Lange




Sportsmemo's MLB Betting Preview: New York Yankees

03.23.2015     08:34 AM     Printer Friendly
copy_mlb_preview_2015].jpg

New York's roster says it wants to win now but that's a tall order given the team's aging personnel. The pitching staff kept this team afloat in 2014 and will be asked to do so again.

New York Yankees
2014 W-L:
84-78
2014 O/U: 68-90-4
2014 Profits: -2.4
2015 O/U Wins: 81.5
2015 AL East Odds: +450
Projected Starting Rotation: Masahiro Tanaka, CC Sabathia, Michael Pineda, Nathan Eovaldi, Chris Capuano
Key Departures: Ichiro Suzuki, Martin Prado, David Robertson, Derek Jeter
Key Additions: Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Miller

Handicapper's Take: "Is it 2008? It feels that way when you glance through the Yankees' aging roster. Nearly their entire lineup is comprised of players north of 30 years old -- some of which aren't even close to being above average major league hitters. Last season, New York was one of the strongest 'under' teams in baseball as it struggled to score runs on a consistent basis. With much of last year's Read more



Tags: MLB New York Yankees Sammy P




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Sweet Sixteen Betting Preview

03.23.2015     07:48 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The insanity that is March Madness just provided bettors and fans alike with one of the more memorable opening weekends of NCAA Tournament action.  Now that the dust has settled, it’s time to take a look at the 16 teams still standing in the Big Dance from a pointspread perspective.  Which squads offer some semblance of betting value moving forward and which do not?  Read on to find out.

Two conferences stood out above the rest this past weekend.  The ACC sent a whopping five teams to the Sweet 16 out of six Big Dance entrants while going 11-1 SU.  But bettors didn’t make a dime supporting those ACC teams, who combined to go 5-7 ATS.  Duke was the lone ACC squad to notch a pair of pointspread covers.  Notre Dame was one of two teams (Kentucky being the other) to go 2-0 SU but 0-2 ATS.

The PAC-12, on the other hand, produced both SU and ATS success for bettors this past weekend.  The four PAC-12 entrants combined to go 7-1 SU, sending three teams to the Sweet 16.  Even more impressively, the conference combined to go 7-1 ATS; the lone non-cover coming in Arizona’s 21 point opening round win as 23 point Read more



Tags: College Basketball Teddy Covers



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, Ian Cameron, and Drew Martin. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   May 24, 2015 12:06 PM.