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MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres

04.06.2016     08:35 AM     Drew Martin     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Drew Martin

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Los Angeles (Maeda) -130 at San Diego (Cashner) O/U 7
Recommendation: Los Angeles


Japanese right-hander Kenta Maeda will make his major league debut for the Los Angeles Dodgers today as they close out their series against San Diego. The Padres will send Andrew Cashner to the hill in hopes of avoiding the sweep. The Dodgers outscored the Padres 18-0 the first two games of the series.
 
The Padres only managed one hit and a total of only two base runners through seven innings against Clayton Kershaw on Opening Day. They didn’t fare much better last night against Scott Kazmir who held San Diego to just one base runner through six innings of work. Maeda was an elite arm in the Japan Central League for eight years, only twice logging an ERA north of 2.60. He is already being compared to Seattle’s Hisashi Iwakuma, with scouts stating, “Maeda will succeed where most Japanese pitchers have not in the transition to American baseball by maintaining his low walk rate. His command is really impressive, and even when his stuff isn’t at its peak he can get guys out with superior location.” He posted a 15-8 record with Read more



Tags: MLB Los Angeles Dodgers San Diego Padres Drew Martin




MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres

04.04.2016     10:52 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Los Angeles (Kershaw) at San Diego (Ross) +180 O/U 6
Recommendation: San Diego


Clayton Kershaw is a true ace, arguably the best pitcher in the NL.  Last year, he became the first pitcher in MLB history to finish among the Top 3 in Cy Young voting in five consecutive seasons.  His team finished in first place.  And oh, by the way, if you bet on Kershaw in every game, you lost more than five units over the season.  And given the nature of the 2016 MLB betting marketplace, wagering on the best pitcher in the NL is likely to be a money losing proposition moving forward.

All of Kershaw’s dominant numbers are baked into this line, leaving the Dodgers priced as $2 road favorites this evening.  His counterpart on the Padres side, Tyson Ross, put up truly dominant numbers last year, the only pitcher in the majors besides Cubs ace Jake Arrieta to finish in the Top 10 in both strikeouts per nine innings and ground ball rates last year.

Arrieta finished the season as the most profitable pitcher in baseball, but Ross was on the wrong end of the  luck equation repeatedly, finishing the season with only ten Read more



Tags: MLB Los Angeles Dodgers San Diego Padres Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Understanding the MLB Betting Markets Part II

04.04.2016     10:17 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
In Part I of this article last week, I illustrated how the quants have come to dominate the MLB betting marketplace over the course of the last few seasons, completely changing the value equation moving forward.  Advanced metric starting pitching stats have become the primary basis for all baseball moneylines, leaving a market that devalues every other aspect of the game.  That leaves opportunities for alternative strategies to succeed here in 2016 and beyond.

I used several examples last week to demonstrate my point about the modern markets.  The following example is probably the best of the bunch, using the strikeouts per nine innings advanced metric stat (K/9).

In 2005, the top eight pitchers in strikeouts per nine innings were Mark Prior, Jake Peavy, Johan Santana, Brett Myers, Pedro Martinez, John Lackey, AJ Burnett and Jason Schmidt.  Six of the eight starters produced a profit for their supporters, and if you bet on the leaders in the K/9 stat for the Read more



Tags: MLB Teddy Covers




Leicester City could cause major damage to sportsbooks

04.04.2016     07:32 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Even if you don't follow the Premier League chances are you've heard of Leicester City's improbable (5000/1) run towards the title. With six games to go, William Hill is already offering bettors and chance for an abbreviated payout to try to limit the potential damage.


"I am a big Leicester fan and I strongly believe they will go on to win the Premier League," Herbert said, in a release by William Hill. "But my fiancé has made me acknowledge that sometimes you have to make decisions with both your head and your heart. I still have a decent chunk on Leicester and will be watching this go down to the wire."

"These types of odds are not offered in any other sport," said John Avello, director of the sports book at the Wynn in Las Vegas.

"Teams in other sports are thought to have much better chances to win than the teams at the bottom of the Premier League. It's almost like there are two teams that are the equivalent of the Patriots, two teams that are the Packers and two

Read more



Tags: Soccer




NBA Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Miami Heat at Sacramento Kings

04.01.2016     11:36 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Miami -6.5 at Sacramento O/U 212
Recommendation: Miami


Sacramento won’t have DeMarcus Cousins this evening thanks to his league leading 16th technical foul for sarcastically clapping following a late foul against the Wizards on Wednesday. And without Cousins, this team doesn’t win on any floor.  When he sat on Monday, the Kings trailed by 25+ all game before a late 16-1 run during garbage time made the final score look more respectable (and gave a brutal beat to Blazers backers).  Cousins sat against Minnesota last week; the Kings lost SU and ATS; again trailing by margin throughout  the second half.  He missed a home game against Orlando earlier in the month, another SU and ATS defeat.

In fact, the Kings are 2-10 SU in the dozen games that Cousins has missed this year, both wins coming against the Bucks on hot shooting nights from the perimeter.  Cousins also missed Sacramento’s first meeting with Miami.  The Kings were red hot that night, shooting at a 51% clip from the floor, including 12-23 shooting from three point range.  The Heat were still up by 16 in the fourth quarter before a Read more



Tags: NBA Miami Heat Sacramento Kings Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Understanding the MLB Betting Markets Part I

03.30.2016     11:36 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The nature of the sportsbetting marketplace is relatively simple to understand.  Bettors find an edge that they can profitably exploit; soon followed by bookmakers adjusting to reflect the popularity of the prevailing thought processes behind those winning wagers.  Over time, the marketplace evolves.  The factors that worked to produce profitable results for bettors get priced into the market and no longer offer that same level of value, leaving bettors scrambling to find new edges to exploit.  And this marketplace evolution can happen rather quickly; over the course of a single season when conditions warrant.

Among the major US sports over the last five years, nowhere has the betting market adjustments and evolution been greater than in baseball.  MLB handicapping methods that worked throughout the first decade of the 21st century are now largely obsolete.  The MLB betting markets have always been strongly tilted towards starting pitching matchups.  But over the last five years, the markets have rapidly adjusted to reflect the most influential ‘advanced metric’ stats for starting pitchers.

What are those Read more



Tags: MLB Teddy Covers




Sportsmemo's MLB Betting Preview: San Diego Padres

03.30.2016     08:06 AM     Drew Martin     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Drew Martin

copy_mlb_preview_2015].jpg

San Diego Padres
2015 W-L:
  74-88
2015 O/U:  93-62-7
2015 Profits:  -19.2 units
2016 O/U Wins (Westgate):  73.5
2016 NL West Odds (Westgate):  20/1
Projected Starting Rotation:  Tyson Ross,  James Shields, Andrew Cashner,  Brandon Morrow, Colin Rea
Key Departures:  Ian Kennedy, Justin Upton,  Craig Kimbrel, Bud Norris
Key Additions:  Fernando Rodney, John Jay

Handicapper’s Take: “Last season General Manager AJ Preller acquired a number of big name players: Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Derek Norris, Will Myers and James Shields. The “all-in” philosophy didn’t pan out as the Padres were pegged for 84 wins but fell 10 games short and lost nearly -20 units in the process. One of the biggest issues last season was allowing the long ball. In 2014, the pitching staff's HR/FB ratio was 8.6% which makes sense considering they play in the NL West and Petco Park. Last Read more



Tags: MLB San Diego Padres Drew Martin




Sportsmemo's MLB Betting Preview: Boston Red Sox

03.29.2016     06:54 AM     Alatex Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Alatex Sports

copy_mlb_preview_2015].jpg

Boston Red Sox
2015 W-L:
78-84
2015 O/U: 83-73
2015 Profits:  -6.5 units
2016 O/U Wins (Westgate):  87.5
2016 AL East Odds (Westgate):  2/1
Projected Starting Rotation:  David Price, Clay Buchholz, Rick Porcello, Eduardo Rodriguez, Joe Kelly
Key Departures: Alexi Ogando,
Key Additions: David Price, Craig Kimbrel, Carson Smith, Roenis Elias

Handicapper's Take: "Last to first is what the Red Sox will attempt to do in arguably the strongest division in baseball. David Price and Craig Kimbrel were two of the biggest signees of the offseason and immediately provide the team with an ace-level starter and closer. Newly appointed team president Dave Dombrowski also brought in stud reliever Carson Smith (DL to start the year) and lefty starter Roenis Elias who is a perfect fill-in arm for when one of the starting five struggles or get injured. The only key loss was Wade Miley (Seattle) who despite marginal stuff pitched a Read more



Tags: MLB Boston Red Sox Brent Crow




MLB Handicapping: Strength of schedule and Interleague pairings

03.28.2016     06:55 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Good article on MLB strength of schedule and the potential impact it could have on regular season win totals. The National League is projected to have the six worst teams (San Diego, Colorado, Milwaukee, Cincinnati, Atlanta, and Philadelphia) which could mean a few extra wins for those AL squads that draw favorable Interleague slates.


And those 20 interleague games can have an outsized effect. Just last year, the 86-win Astros squeaked in to the second Wild Card, finishing one game ahead of the 85-win Angels. One of the biggest things that separated them was interleague play: the Astros finished a lucky 16-4, while the Angels were only 8-12. They both faced the West last year, but the 87-win Wild Card Yankees faced the East, and they went 11-9, with special thanks to a three-game sweep of the Braves — and that preserved their two-win margin over the Angels.






Tags: MLB




Sportsmemo's MLB Betting Preview: Cleveland Indians

03.28.2016     05:36 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

copy_mlb_preview_2015].jpg

Cleveland Indians
2015 W-L:
  81-80
2015 O/U:  79-80-2
2015 Profits:  -13.2 units
2016 O/U Wins (Westgate):  85.5
2016 AL Central Odds (Westgate):  9/5
Projected Starting Rotation: Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer, Danny Salazar, Josh Tomlin
Key Departures:  Ryan Webb, Chris Johnson, Mike Aviles
Key Additions:  Mike Napoli, Rajai Davis

Handicapper's Take: "Armed with the best starting rotation in the AL Central, the Cleveland Indians are projected to be Kansas City's closest competition this season. In fact, a number of sportsbooks currently have the Tribe with a higher season over/under win total and shorter odds to win the division.

Shortstop Francisco Lindor, who is projected to be the cornerstone of the organization, produced All-Star level numbers (.313, 12 HRs, 51 RBI) in only 99 games last season. And Mike Napoli was brought in to add pop to a lineup that had Read more



Tags: MLB Cleveland Indians Andrew Lange



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Ian Cameron, Drew Martin, and Alex B. Smith. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Podcast Monday-Friday at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Podcast?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's podcast archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, CFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   May 31, 2016 04:40 PM.