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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: The College Football Playoff circus has begun

11.09.2015     08:08 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
I haven’t had an appropriate opportunity to rant against the most corrupt organization in sports – the NCAA, making billions off the backs of student athletes without a lick of oversight – in quite some time.  But now that we’re in Playoff Committee time here in November, it’s time to call out the NCAA for this ridiculous atrocity, designed to do one thing and one thing only – make the NCAA more money, by driving up the hype factor of the college football playoff.  You know, the playoff that doesn’t begin until January?  You know, the playoff that has a constantly-hyped national TV show every week, designed to get fat checks from corporate sponsors?   Yeah, that college football playoff!

Can you imagine, even for a minute, if the NFL held a mid-season poll so that a group of high profile bureaucrats, administrators and big name celebrities (does Condoleezza Rice really know the in’s and out’s of college football) could vote on who the top teams were?  Of course you can’t imagine such a thing, because it’s a ludicrous concept.  If these polls never existed, there would be Read more

Tags: College Football Teddy Covers

College Football Betting Update: Season Over/Under Wins results start to pile up

11.09.2015     07:42 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
As we near the end of the college football regular season let's check in on the season over/under win totals that have officially cashed. Plays were graded based on CG Technology's lines from late July.

Boston College (3-7) O/U 5.5 - UNDER
Virginia Tech (4-5) O/U 8 - UNDER
Georgia Tech (3-6) O/U 7.5 - UNDER

Oklahoma State (9-0) O/U 7.5 - OVER

Big Ten
Iowa (9-0) O/U 7.5 - OVER
Northwestern (7-2) O/U 6 - OVER
Illinois (5-4) O/U 4 - OVER
Nebraska (4-6) O/U 8 - UNDER

Mountain West
UNLV (3-6) O/U 2.5 - OVER

Washington State (6-3) O/U 5 - OVER
Oregon (6-3) O/U 9.5 - UNDER
Utah (8-1) O/U 7.5 - OVER
Arizona State (4-5) O/U 7.5 - UNDER
Arizona (5-5) O/U 8 - UNDER

Florida (8-1) O/U 7 - OVER
Missouri (4-5) O/U 7.5 - UNDER
South Carolina (3-6) O/U 6.5 - UNDER
Auburn (5-4) O/U 8.5 - UNDER

Tags: College Football

College Football Handicapping: Markets push Illinois into historically bad spot

11.06.2015     07:13 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
We need to talk about the Illinois-Purdue pointspread for a minute. To start, the game opened a pick 'em with the Illini taking most of the early money with the line trickling up to -2. The move was understandable as the Illini have the more attractive statistical profile (-0.76 ypp vs. Big Ten) compared to the Boilermakers (-1.57 ypp). But yesterday’s -2 turned quickly into -5 putting Illinos in some rarified air. They've been favored in 10 Big Ten games since 2011 only twice since 2013 and both of which were against Purdue. Their track record in that profile is nothing short of horrific. Check out the results...

-10 vs. Purdue - SU Loss, ATS Loss

-6.5 at Purdue - SU Win, ATS Loss

-2 vs. Indiana - SU Loss, ATS Loss
-3 vs. Penn State - SU Loss, ATS Loss

-9.5 vs. Northwestern - SU Win, ATS Loss
-14 at Indiana - SU Win, ATS Win
-3.5 vs. Ohio State - SU Loss, ATS Loss
-3 at Purdue - SU Loss, ATS Loss
-1 vs. Michigan - SU Loss, ATS Loss
-10 at Minnesota - SU Loss, ATS Loss

All Read more

Tags: College Football Illinois Fighting Illini Purdue Boilermakers BigTen

College Football Betting Preview: Michigan State Spartans at Nebraska Cornhuskers

11.03.2015     10:51 AM     Alex Smith     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Alex Smith blog entry.
Michigan State at Nebraska
Saturday, 4 pm PT - ESPN
CRIS Opener:
Michigan State -4.5 O/U 58
CRIS Current: Michigan State -5 O/U 58
Recommendation: Michigan State

Quiet as a mouse and undefeated Michigan State heads to Lincoln off of a bye week. Following an 0-6 ATS start, the Spartans have covered two straight. After posting nearly a yard-and-a-half advantage over their opponents a year ago, Sparty is a very modest +0.31 this season which is certainly reflective in their pointspread failures.

Meanwhile, Nebraska's disastrous season continues after an embarrassing 55-45 loss to Purdue which dropped their record to 3-6 on the season and 1-4 in conference play. Junior backup quarterback Ryker Fife started over the injured Tommy Armstrong Jr. and went 29-of-48 for 407 yards and 4 TDs, but also had 4 interceptions. While five of their losses have come by a total of 13 points, the Huskers are a team that can't seem to get out of their own way. Case in point, Nebraska has actually outgained the opposition this season but penalties (104th nationally) and turnovers (-8 margin, 113th nationally) Read more

Tags: College Football Michigan State Spartans Nebraska Cornhuskers Big Ten Alex B. Smith

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Analyzing bye-less College Football teams

11.02.2015     10:16 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Seventeen college football teams enter November without having had a single bye week since the start of the season and without a bye this coming week.  Those teams are Arizona, Ball State, Boston College, Colorado, UConn, Eastern Michigan, Florida International, Hawaii, Louisiana Tech, Miami-Ohio, Ole Miss, Nebraska, Penn State, Texas Tech, Western Kentucky, Wisconsin and Wyoming.  Two more teams, North Texas and UMass, haven’t had byes since Week 1; teams that started their seasons a week late, but haven’t had a break since.  Is there anything unique or different about these non-bye squads?  Read on to find out.

Five of the 17 teams listed above don’t have any bye weeks at all.  Florida International, Miami-Ohio, Hawaii (with their 13 game schedule!), Arizona and Colorado will finish the season without a break.  Note that none of those five are going to play in a conference championship game, and only two (Arizona and FIU) have any realistic shot to make a bowl game.  Bye-less teams don’t tend to be very successful.  Most importantly for our purposes, they also don’t tend to cover many pointspreads Read more

Tags: College Football Teddy Covers Las Vegas

College Football Handicapping: Nebraska goes with former walk-on quarterback vs. Purdue

10.30.2015     06:36 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Nebraska Cornhusker quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr. (turf toe) will miss Saturday's game at Purdue. That means former walk-on Ryker Fyfe will be under center. Fyfe, a junior, has attempted only 18 career passes. In six games against FBS competition, the Boilermakers have allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 69% of their passes which ranks 124th nationally. Nebraska opened -11 but is currently -7.5 across the board. The total was bet down from 56 to 54.

"He is not held back," Riley said. "He has run all these plays. He was the sole guy this week to take the first-string reps. So the knowledge of everything about what we're doing, he's familiar with.

"I'm excited for him, and I think he'll do very well."

Tags: College Football Nebraska Cornhuskers Purdue Boilermakers Big Ten

College Football Handicapping: Minnesota head coach Jerry Kill steps down

10.28.2015     07:32 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Sad day for the Minnesota football program as head coach Jerry Kill announced his retirement due to health concerns. Associate head coach Tracy Claeys will take over as interim. Under Kill's watch, Minnesota went 32-26 against the spread. This weekend, the Golden Gophers play host to Michigan. The Wolverines, who are off of a bye week (and the wild loss to Michigan State), were bet up from -12.5 to -14. 

Tags: College Football Minnesota Golden Gophers Michigan Wolverines Big Ten

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Breaking down the NFL's five unbeatens

10.26.2015     07:59 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
We’re nearing the halfway point of the NFL season and five teams still remain undefeated; an unusually high number of perfect teams at this stage of the campaign.  There’s not much debate with the betting community about how to rank the five remaining unbeatens.  The New England Patriots are power rated at least a field goal higher than any other team in the league right now.  Behind the Pats come the Green Bay Packers, followed closely by the Cincinnati Bengals.  The Denver Broncos rank #4 on this list; with Peyton Manning’s ongoing struggles carrying more weight than the Broncos elite level defensive stats in the current betting markets.  Last on the list is the Carolina Panthers, still searching for market respect even after their win and cover against the Eagles on Sunday Night Football.

My goal of this week’s Wiseguy Report is to break down these five teams in terms of my probability of them producing a profit over the final ten weeks of the regular season.  Is it possible to make money with ANY of these teams moving forward, or have the betting markets eclipsed any semblance of future value?  Read on to find Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

Sports Betting Podcast 10-21-2015 with Sportsmemo Handicappers Alex B. Smith and Erin Rynning

10.21.2015     12:12 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Wednesday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured Sportsmemo Handicapper Alex B. Smith and Erin Rynning. Alex broke down tonight's four NHL games while host Andrew Lange and ER provided analysis on the Big Ten.

Today's segments
Full Show

Alex B. Smith - NHL Every Game on the Board

Erin Rynning - Big Ten Report

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: NHL College Football Big Ten Alex B. Smith Erin Rynning Andrew Lange

College Football Betting Preview: Texas A&M Aggies at Ole Miss Rebels

10.21.2015     10:00 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC blog entry.
Texas A&M at Ole Miss
Saturday, 4 pm PT - ESPN
CRIS Opener:
Ole Miss -4 O/U 66
CRIS Current: Ole Miss -6 O/U 66
Recommendation: Texas A&M

Both of these SEC West teams are looking for big bounce back efforts after disappointing results last week. Texas A&M was dominated by Alabama, 41-23, as it allowed running Derrick Henry to carry the rock for 236 yards on 32 rushing attempts for a staggering 7.4 yards per carry. Ole Miss stumbled outside of the conference last week in a 37-24 loss to Memphis with quarterback Chad Kelly throwing two picks in the loss and the defense getting gouged for nearly 500 total yards of offense by the Tigers’ potent offense.

Texas A&M was able to move the football well enough at times against Alabama, particularly through the air (284 yards) but Kyle Allen threw three interceptions despite only two the previous five games. I think the Aggies offense has a solid chance to bounce back against an Ole Miss defense whose defensive numbers (4.48 yards per play allowed) look on par with last season (4.67 ypp) but a closer look shows this unit has taken Read more

Tags: College Football Texas A&M Aggies Ole Miss Rebels SEC Ian Cameron


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