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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Early season college football money burners

09.28.2015     08:16 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Last week in my Wiseguy Report, I look an in-depth look at the 13 teams that started the college football season 3-0 ATS.   In general, those teams had quite a few commonalities:

“Non-descript teams that aren’t getting much hype or love from the preseason betting markets, the preseason publications or the preseason talking heads.  Teams coming off a bad bowl loss or a late season collapse are definitely worth an extra look, as are teams replacing an experienced, but perhaps underachieving, quarterback.”

I concluded the article with this paragraph: “These early season ATS outliers are NOT likely to continue their red hot runs.  The under-the-radar concept when it comes to finding strong ATS teams in early season play holds sway when it comes to early season results as well.  Many, if not most, of the elite ATS teams in college football this year have already lost at least once against the spread, putting them squarely under-the-radar as potential elite ATS squads moving forward."

If you bet on all 13 of the teams that entered last weekend with a 3-0 ATS mark, you lost money.  Read more

Tags: College Football Teddy Covers

NFL Handicapping: So-so performances by 0-2 teams in Week 3

09.28.2015     07:52 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
A quick look back at how the nine 0-2 teams performed in Week 3. The end result was 5-4 SU/ATS. All told, not one of the nine teams, including those who won and covered, really played all that well. Four teams remain winless heading into Week 4: Baltimore, Chicago, Detroit, and New Orleans.

Indianapolis - Trailing 27-14 late in the third quarter, the Colts rallied back for the 35-33 win at Tennessee but failed to cover as -3 favorites.

Baltimore - Outgained by over a yard per play, the Ravens couldn't hold on to a 24-21 lead as Cincinnati punched in the game-winning touchdown with two minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. Big red flag as Andy Dalton threw for 383 yards and 12.0 yards per attempt.

Seattle - After tough back-to-back road games, the Seahawks cruised past Chicago 26-0. Note that it was a 6-0 game at halftime.

Detroit - The Lions couldn't run the football (28 yards, 1.5 ypc) or hang on to it (3 turnovers) in Sunday night's 24-12 loss to Denver.

Philadelphia - It wasn't pretty as the Eagles were outgained 4.3 ypp to 3.4 ypp in Sunday's Read more

Tags: NFL

NFL Gambling Preview: Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys

09.24.2015     02:33 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Atlanta at Dallas
Sunday, 10 am PT - FOX
CRIS Opener:
Atlanta -1.5 O/U 44
CRIS Current: Dallas pk O/U 44.5
Recommendation: Under

The Dallas Cowboys are the antithesis of the up-tempo offensive approach to the 2015 NFL.  Through their first two games, Dallas has averaged an offensive snap every 32.8 seconds, ranked #31 in the NFL in pace ratings.  They ranked dead last in the NFL in pace last year.  This is not a team primed to push the tempo, regardless of circumstances, which makes perfect sense.  The Cowboys starters are as good as any in the NFL, but they lack quality depth at numerous positions due to their salary cap limitations.  So it makes perfect sense for Dallas to try to protect those starters as much as possible.  Running fewer plays does that, especially over the course of a full season.

But, as we all know, the Cowboys are riddled with high profile offensive injuries right now.  Tony Romo is out for a couple of months, leading receiver Dez Bryant is out, and tight end Jason Witten is very questionable to suit up here.  That leaves Brandon Read more

Tags: NFL Atlanta Falcons Dallas Cowboys Teddy Covers

College Football Betting Podcast 9-23-2015 with Sportsmemo Handicapper Erin Rynning

09.23.2015     12:21 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Wednesday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured Sportsmemo Handicapper Erin Rynning. ER and host Andrew Lange provided a breakdown of the Big Ten.

Today's segments
Erin Rynning - Big Ten Report

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: College Football Big Ten Erin Rynning Andrew Lange

College Football Betting Preview: North Texas Mean Green at Iowa Hawkeyes

09.23.2015     09:29 AM     Otto Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Otto Sports blog entry.
North Texas at Iowa
Saturday, 12:30 pm PT - ESPNU
CRIS Opener:
Iowa -24.5 O/U 51
CRIS Current: Iowa -24.5 O/U 54
Recommendation: Under

In order to get this game over the current total of 54, you'll need faith that North Texas can not only move the football but put points on the board. Dating back to last season, the Mean Green haven't been able to do either. Last season, playing in defense-less C-USA, North Texas averaged only 21.9 ppg. This season, they managed only 240 total yards against a well below average SMU defense and last week struggled for three quarter to score against another sub-par defense in Rice. Had it not been for a garbage time 93-yard touchdown pass, North Texas may not have topped 400 yards of offense. Now they go on the road to face a very capable Iowa defense.

North Texas is in a bind because quarterback Andrew McNulty is completing 50% of his passes meaning in order to stick around, they'll need to run the football. The problem with that is Iowa hasn't allowed anything on the ground this season with three opponents combining for 153 yards at 1.87 ypc. Barring any short Read more

Tags: College Football North Texas Mean Green C-USA Iowa Hawkeyes Big Ten OTTO Sports

College Football Betting Preview: Maryland Terrapins at West Virginia Mountaineers

09.22.2015     07:24 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Maryland at West Virginia
Saturday, Noon PT - FS-1
CRIS Opener:
West Virginia -16 O/U 59
CRIS Current: West Virginia -16.5 O/U 60
Recommendation: West Virginia

Following two easy wins and a bye week, West Virginia takes a small step up in class as it plays host to rival Maryland. Following Week 2's embarrassing 48-27 loss to Bowling Green, the Terps bounced back with a 35-17 win over South Florida.

Heading into last week's game, Maryland made a switch at quarterback as Caleb Rowe stepped in for Perry Hills. Rowe seemed to make a positive impact as the passing game produced nearly 300 yards and four touchdowns. It was far from a perfect showing however as Rowe tossed three interceptions (16-15 TD-INT career ratio), the team fumbled three times but managed to regain possession in each instance, the ground game produced a dismal 114 yards on 3.4 ypc, and UM committed 12 penalties for 120 yards. Maryland will need a much cleaner performance if it is going to compete in Morgantown.

Not much of a body of work for West Virginia though Week 1's blowout win over Georgia Southern Read more

Tags: College Football Maryland Terrapins Big Ten West Virginia Mountaineers Big XII Andrew Lange

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Early season college football money makers

09.21.2015     09:15 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
We’re already a quarter of the way through the college football season, with the first three weekends in the rear view mirror.  In this week’s Wiseguy Report, I’m going to focus on the early season pointspread outliers.  Of the 128 FBS teams that we see lines on every week, 13 have gone 3-0 ATS to open the season. Ten have gone 0-3 ATS.  Because of space limitations, I’m going to focus on the 3-0 teams this week, while taking a closer look at the struggling ATS squads in next week’s article. 

What should we expect from these hot ATS teams moving forward?  And how can we look for those outlier teams from the get-go next year?  Read on to find out.

Ole Miss, NC State, Northwestern, Ohio, Air Force, BYU, Buffalo, Middle Tennessee State, Rice, Southern Miss, Washington, Central Michigan and SMU.  The only obvious commonality between those 13 squads is their 3-0 ATS mark.  I could easily add the likes of Texas Tech and Colorado State to this list, both 2-0-1 ATS.  And 2-0 ATS Navy hasn’t played three games yet; worthy of inclusion into this discussion. 

Even if we Read more

Tags: College Football Teddy Covers Las Vegas

Football Handicapping: Big early season profits

09.21.2015     09:10 AM     Otto Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Otto Sports

What a start to the season! As a handicapper, it's never a bad thing to be red hot and have some bounces go your way which is exactly what has happened the first few weeks of the season as I've produced a combined 13-1 record and +18.3 units of profit in both college and pro football. Is winning at a 90%+ clip sustainable? No. I've been betting for well over a decade and I know how difficult it is to win at a high clip for extended stretches. That said, after tweaking a few parts of my handicap during the offseason, I've been able to put myself in high percentage situations and will do my best to maintain that moving forward. As you can see with the results below, I don't release a lot of plays --- something I do by design. My goal as a handicapper has always been to put my clients in the best position to profit and I feel that by identifying and isolating my strongest plays there's a higher probability to not only profit but minimize the damage when I do come up short. I'm really looking forward to the upcoming week and encourage anyone who is interested to be a part of my service which you can check out on my home Read more

Tags: NFL College Football OTTO Sports

College Football Betting Preview: South Carolina Gamecocks at Georgia Bulldogs

09.17.2015     02:28 PM     Alatex Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Alatex Sports blog entry.
South Carolina at Georgia
Saturday, 3 pm PT - ESPN
CRIS Opener:
Georgia -15 O/U 55.5
CRIS Current: Georgia -16.5 O/U 51.5
Recommendation: South Carolina

South Carolina-Georgia has become one of the better rivalries in the SEC and usually is a big factor in the SEC East race. South Carolina has won four of the past five meetings, including a 38-35 upset win last year as 6.5 point underdogs. The point spread this year is totally out of character for this series, with four straight meetings showing a line of three or less until last year’s 6.5.

Obviously the state of the South Carolina quarterback situation is the biggest factor in the huge number here. Former walkon Perry Orth took over for starter Connor Mitch last week after Mitch separated his shoulder in the 2nd quarter.  Orth had good numbers in the loss to Kentucky, going 13-20 for 179 and a touchdown after taking over. He also through a late interception to seal the 26-22 loss. Orth looked like a serviceable quarterback and Spurrier will coach him up this week, so I would expect the Gamecocks to be fine on Read more

Tags: College Football South Carolina Gamecocks Georgia Bulldogs SEC Brent Crow

College Football Gambling: Rutgers suspends head coach Flood

09.17.2015     06:54 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Rutgers announced that head coach Kyle Flood will be suspended for three games following impermissible contact with a university professor. Adding to the Scarlet Knights' misery is the amount of players currently suspended including top pass catcher Leonte Carroo and half of the secondary. Flood however will still be allowed to participate in practice and team meetings. Pick your poison this weekend, bettors: Rutgers' drama or Penn State as a double-digit favorite.

Tags: College Football Rutgers Scarlet Knights Penn State Nittany Lions Big Ten


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