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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Miami Heat fit the profile of a champion

04.15.2013     07:50 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Every year, prior to the end of the regular season, I write a column I call ‘Who Has What it Takes to Win the Big Dance”.  After Louisville’s NCAA Tournament Championship this year, we’ve seen future champions fit a specific statistical profile in 15 of the last 16 tournaments.  As a result of that specific statistical profile, I can simply go through all the contending teams, one by one, to see which squad has the best chance (or one of the best chances) to cut down the nets following six consecutive victories over a three week span.

I do not go through a specific statistical profile that predicts NBA playoff success the same way I do for college.  And while the NCAA Tournament is a relative sprint, the NBA Playoffs are an extended, two month long marathon; a war of attrition as much as anything else.  A race towards a four series, 16 victory championship requires talent and health.

We don’t see longshots winning NBA titles very often.  The biggest surprise teams to win a title in the last two decades – the 2004 Pistons and the 2011 Mavericks – were both deep, veteran, defensive minded Read more


Tags: NBA Teddy Covers Miami Heat




NBA Handicapping: Utah Jazz win fifth in a row, hold half game lead over Lakers

04.02.2013     07:22 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

For those of you (us) who have only been half-paying attention to the NBA during the crush of March Madness, it’s time to get caught up on the race for the #8 spot in the Western brackets. I’ve been trusting glances at the mainstream media to keep me informed, which led to a couple of surprises.

*Utah has had trouble shedding its “choker” label, even though they’ve now won five games in a row by margins of 16-15-10-9-10. They’re either 7-0-1 or 8-0 against market prices their last eight depending on when Jazz backers hit the Monday line. Some choke job!

*Dallas is seen as a hard-charging team making a run even though they were just crushed at home by Brooklyn and Indiana, and needed a heroic last second shot from Dirk Nowitzki to survive a home game with Chicago. They are playing better than they had been. But, Western Conference playoff caliber teams don’t get spanked at home by Brooklyn and Indiana.

The one thing that has been Read more


Tags: NBA Utah Jazz Stat Intelligence




NBA Handicapping: Indiana Pacers welcome back West and Granger

03.28.2013     07:25 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Indiana at Dallas -3.5 O/U 192

The Indiana Pacers are expected to have David West and Danny Granger available for tonight's game at Dallas. Granger (knee) has been out since earlier this month. West (back) has missed the last six games. The Pacers are currently tied with New York for the second spot in the Eastern Conference. Dallas meanwhile trails the Lakers by a game and a half for the eight spot in the Western Conference.


“David is a big one,” Pacers coach Frank Vogel said. “Our backup (power forwards) are playing really, really well. To win in the NBA, you have to score at crunch time, and David West is a guy we run most of our offense through down the stretch. That’s where it’s the most challenging.”





Tags: NBA Indiana Pacers Dallas Mavericks




NBA Handicapper Free Pick: Cleveland Cavaliers at Dallas Mavericks

03.15.2013     12:47 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Cleveland +8 at Dallas O/U 203
Recommendation: Cleveland


Dallas is in a very tough scheduling spot this evening.  They played their guts out last night against San Antonio but came up a single point short, a hard fought defeat for a shorthanded team right now. 

It doesn’t look like the Mavericks are going to have starting forward Shawn Marion on the floor again this evening, and starting center Chris Kaman is a major question mark after twisting his ankle last night.  Last night’s loss dropped the Mavs into a tie with Portland in the West, both teams three games out of the final playoff spot. 

For a sub .500 team like Dallas, it’s hard to picture them coming with maximum intensity here on the second night of back-to-backs.  And we certainly shouldn’t forget that the Mavs have lost two of their last three at home in SU fashion, while the lone home win during that span came by only four points.

Cleveland notched a Read more


Tags: NBA Cleveland Cavaliers Dallas Mavericks Teddy Covers




NBA Handicapper Free Pick: Dallas Mavericks at Minnesota Timberwolves

03.10.2013     08:53 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Dallas -6.5 at Minnesota O/U 200.5
Recommendation: Dallas

Somehow, someway, the Mavericks are still in the Western Conference playoff hunt sitting just three games out of the eighth and final spot. The possibility of making the playoffs has Dallas playing with game-by-game focus which is more than this crippled Minnesota team has going for it right now. Down to just nine players and missing three key starters including center Nikola Peković, the Timberwolves are running on fumes. Dallas’ frontline advantages and their depth figure to be problematic for Minnesota tonight and it helps that the Mavs continue to be a rested team. Without any semblance of a go to scorer, the T-Wolves faltered miserably in their first game without Pekovic last night against Denver getting outscored 61-39 in the second half. Back-to-back games with a shorthanded team coming from the mile high altitude doesn’t bode well for Minnesota against a Dallas team still playing with a Read more


Tags: NBA Dallas Mavericks Minnesota Timberwolves Rob Veno




NBA Betting Recap: Lakers' Surreal-ity TV...If It Was a Movie Script, You Wouldn't Believe It!

03.07.2013     06:42 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

On a night with so many side-by-side stories breaking in basketball…the biggest drama involved the incredible turnarounds that could loom very large in the 2013 Los Angeles Lakers Saga.

*Utah, currently #8 in the Western Conference standings, led Cleveland (20-40 and playing out the string) by a score of 76-68 entering the fourth quarter.

*Utah lost the fourth quarter 36-25 to a team with nothing to play for, and dropped their fifth game in the last six outings to further tighten the choke collar that’s been around their neck.

*The LA Lakers, starting an hour later than Utah, fell way behind New Orleans on night two of a back-to-back. They spent much of their evening figuring they were going to take a hit in the standings. Entering the fourth quarter, the Lakers trailed New Orleans 93-75.

*Buoyed by the great news from Cleveland, the Lakers won the fourth quarter 33-9…that’s THIRTY-THREE to NINE on the road on night two of a Read more


Tags: NBA Los Angeles Lakers Stat Intelligence




NBA Handicapping: Dallas hopes to avoid getting run out of the gym vs. Houston

03.06.2013     06:52 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Houston at Dallas -2 O/U 222.5

Everyone knows the Houston Rockets like to push the pace and score in transition. But what they did the Dallas on Sunday (136-103 win) was pretty amazing/embarrassing. There are conflicting reports on exactly how many fast break points the Rockets had (it was north of 35) but Dallas head coach Rick Carlisle referred to the amount as an "intergalactic record." They reportedly worked on transition defense in practice but if you read some of the quotes, the Mavericks seem well aware of the fact that they just can’t seem to guard anyone.


“They only had 41, which is an intergalactic record,” Carlisle said.

“They sliced and diced us, particularly in the third quarter,” he said of Houston’s 44-17 Read more



Tags: NBA Houston Rockets Dallas Mavericks




NBA Handicapping: A look at the Dallas Mavericks from a W-L and ATS perspective

02.28.2013     07:59 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

There was an article at Grantland yesterday that talked about how Dallas has picked up its tempo this year in a way that’s created offensive efficiency…particularly since Dirk Nowitzki returned to the starting lineup on January 5. One of the main points the author was trying to make was that Dallas has been playing winning basketball since Dirk was ready to go as a starter…

“Since he returned to the starting lineup on January 5, the team is a much more respectable 12-11 with an even healthier scoring margin of +3.8. Since that date, this year’s group has posted an offensive rating of 107.2, which would tie them for fourth in the league had it been their mark for the entire season and falls just short of the team’s championship-level figure.”

As you Read more


Tags: NBA Dallas Mavericks Stat Intelligence




NBA Handicapping: Dallas Mavericks in favorable spot vs. Orlando Magic

02.20.2013     11:49 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Orlando at Dallas -11.5 O/U 206

Article on Dallas' propensity for slow starts. Rick Carlisle said the Mavericks have the league's worst point differential the first six minutes of the game. What Dallas has been successful with is beating teams at home who are on the second night of back-to-backs. In that situation they are 11-2 SU and 9-4 ATS (7-0 SU/ATS streak). Tonight's opponent Orlando lost at home to Charlotte last night.


“We’ve struggled all year with starting games,” coach Rick Carlisle said. “In fact, we’re the worst team in the league in the first six minutes of the game. It’s a challenge we got to take on.”






Tags: NBA Dallas Mavericks Orlando Magic




NBA Betting Alert: Durant and Nowitzki expected to suit up

02.04.2013     02:31 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Dallas at Oklahoma City -8 O/U 209

The latest reports indicate that Oklahoma City's Kevin Durant will play tonight against Dallas. Durant hurt his ribs in Saturday's loss at Cleveland. Durant hasn't missed a game since December of 2010. Also slated to play is Dallas' Dirk Nowitzki who missed two games with an abductor strain. 




Tags: NBA Oklahoma City Thunder Dallas Mavericks



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