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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: NFC News and Notes from Week 9

11.04.2013     08:06 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Welcome to Teddy’s unique look at the NFL. Teddy watches games all day on Sunday, typing furiously on his laptop while giving you the key info that the box scores and game recaps don’t necessarily have. This week: NFC thoughts and opinions from Week 9.

Dallas Cowboys – Dallas had faced four top notch QB's this year heading into the game: Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers and Matthew Stafford. All four threw for more than 400 yards against Monte Kiffin's defense. Here, Christian Ponder had consistent success throwing downfield. This defense just can't stop the pass, especially with DeMarcus Ware out again, negating any semblance of a pass rush. And there were no shortage of defensive breakdowns either – missed tackles, missed assignments and blown coverages.

Not impressed with the offensive line play today one iota. The Vikings got pressure on Tony Romo all afternoon. They signed former pro bowl guard Brian Waters out of retirement a few weeks ago as a desperation move, but he couldn’t stay healthy; already on IR. Back-to-back sacks killed a red zone chance here, forcing Dan Bailey's legs to get points, not Read more

Tags: NFL Dallas Cowboys St. Louis Rams Washington Redskins New Orleans Saints Minnesota Vikings Teddy Covers

NFL Preseason Betting Recap: Saturday Dress Rehearsals

08.25.2013     07:49 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Ten games on the Saturday schedule. One is a very late starter that we’ll save until our next report. Grab some popcorn because this one's going to take awhile. Numbers and notes from the first nine Saturday finishers in market rotation order...

(If you’re new to the site, “Drive Points” are those scored on drives of 60 yards or more. “Stat Score” is an estimate of what the final score should have been based only on rushing and passing yardage. The formula for that is 2 times rushing yardage…plus passing yardage…times 0.67…divided by 15)

Washington 30, Buffalo 7

Total Yardage: Buffalo 155, Washington 452

Passing Stats: Buffalo 12-21-0-63, Washington 18-35-0-244

Turnovers: Buffalo 2, Washington 0

Drive Points: Buffalo 0, Washington 17

Stat Score: Buffalo 15, Washington 29

About as ugly from the Buffalo perspective as it could be…

*Kevin Kolb Read more

Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence

NFL Preseason Betting Recap: Saturday Stats (August 17)

08.18.2013     07:21 AM     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Let’s run the numbers from the first five Saturday games in market rotation order…

(If you’re new to the site, “Drive Points” are those scored on drives of 60 yards or more. “Stat Score” is an estimate of what the final score should have been based only on rushing and passing yardage. The formula for that is 2 times rushing yardage…plus passing yardage…times 0.67…divided by 15)

Arizona 12 (-4), Dallas 7

Total Yardage: Dallas 342, Arizona 365

Passing Stats: Dallas 25-37-3-298, Arizona 21-40-1-260

Turnovers: Dallas 6, Arizona 1

Drive Points: Dallas 7, Arizona 3

Stat Score: Dallas 17, Arizona 21

Yup…Dallas sure is cleaning things up. SIX TURNOVERS! Good thing they had that head start on everyone else with the Hall of Fame game.

Tony Romo actually played pretty well. He was 12-14-0-142, which is good yardage for that many completions and attempts. Read more

Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence

NFL Preseason Gambling: Recapping Thursday's Games

08.09.2013     06:08 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Busy night of exhibition action. Let’s crunch some numbers so you have more than just the final scores at your fingertips. If you’re new to the site, “Drive Points” are those scored on drives of 60 yards or more. “Stat Score” is an estimate of what the final score "should" have been based only on rushing and passing yardage. The formula for that is 2 times rushing yardage…plus passing yardage…times 0.67…divided by 15. 

Baltimore 44, Tampa Bay 16

Total Yardage: Baltimore 332, Tampa Bay 273

Passing Stats: Baltimore 21-34-1-204, Tampa Bay 17-36-3-193

Turnovers: Baltimore 1, Tampa Bay 4

Drive Points: Baltimore 14, Tampa Bay 3

Stat Score: Baltimore 21, Tampa Bay 16

Baltimore had a cheap TD on a blocked punt in the end zone that they recovered for a TD, and they took advantage of a bit turnover advantage (a blocked punt isn’t a turnover, so it was a Read more

Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence

NFL Preseason Betting Free Pick: Washington Redskins at Tennessee Titans

08.08.2013     11:23 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Washington at Tennessee -3 O/U 35.5
Recommendation: Tennessee

The Redskins are expected to start three rookies in the secondary tonight.  The Titans are expected to give Jake Locker an extended look for a preseason opener; in the range of 20 snaps.  Locker has a lot to prove this August…Advantage: Tennessee.

The betting markets like Washington’s backup QB duo of Rex Grossman and Pat White after Kirk Cousins sits.  No argument there.  But the Titans backup QB rotation looks good as well, with former Bills starter Ryan Fitzpatrick and four year veteran Rusty Smith backing up Locker. 

Redskins head coach Mike Shanahan is taking a very relaxed attitude towards game planning here in August.  They’ll be focusing on “general concepts” tonight.  Washington was -3 in their preseason opener last year and scored a grand total of seven points in their non-cover against the Bills.

We’ve got Read more

Tags: NFL Washington Redskins Tennessee Titans Teddy Covers

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Handicapping the best and worst NFL secondaries

07.29.2013     11:03 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
The pecking order for NFL quarterbacks is well established.  Most of the best quarterbacks play for the best teams.  Peyton Manning in Denver, Eli Manning in New York, Tom Brady in New England, Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay, Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh, Drew Brees in New Orleans and Joe Flacco in Baltimore all wear Super Bowl rings.  All seven guys play for teams that are perennial playoff teams, and all seven of those squads are lined at 8.5 wins or higher again this year.

The next grouping of quarterbacks isn’t as easy to establish.  I’d probably put the likes of Robert Griffin III, Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan, Matt Schaub, Tony Romo, Philip Rivers and Colin Kaepernick in this grouping; and I wouldn’t argue with anyone who wanted to include Matthew Stafford, Jay Cutler, Cam Newton or Andrew Luck.  Just about every one of those quarterbacks also plays for a playoff contending team.

The very bottom of the pecking order is also very easy to establish.  On my list, I’d include Christian Ponder in Minnesota, Brandon Weeden in Cleveland, Mark Sanchez in New York, Jake Locker in Tennessee, Blaine Gabbert or Chad Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

Teddy Covers' Wiseguy Report: Looking at the contenders in the AFC

12.03.2012     09:49 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
I spent the last few Sunday’s concentrating on some pretty bad football teams. It’s December now; time to shift my focus towards the other end of the spectrum. This week, I focused on four AFC Playoff contenders. Which teams have the potential to do some damage when January rolls around and which are frauds? Read on to find out!

Indianapolis - Indy is certainly not a Super Bowl contender. But given that they were seven point underdogs at 4-7 Detroit, the betting markets aren’t even calling the Colts a playoff caliber team. Even with starting cornerback Vontae Davis back in the lineup following a four game injury absence, the pass defense spent all afternoon getting torched. Where's the pass rush? Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis were non-factors here.

The offensive line got dominated by Detroit’s front four for most of the afternoon. Andrew Luck was beaten up, taking one big hit after the next. Coming into the game with four fumbles and 10 INTs in five previous road games, Luck's emphasis was on ball security here. That emphasis didn’t work. He hit seven different receivers in the first half, but also threw a pair Read more

Tags: NFL Indianapolis Colts New England Patriots Baltimore Ravens Houston Texans Teddy Covers

NFL Gambling Preview: Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans

11.30.2012     02:43 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Houston at Tennessee
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Tennessee
Sunday, 10 am PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
Houston -4.5 O/U 48
CRIS Current: Houston -6.5 O/U 47

Houston is in their single worst spot of the entire season.  The Texans played an OT barnburner in Detroit last week, escaping with a hard fought three point win.  The previous week, the Texans pulled a ‘refuse-to-lose’ at home against the Jags, rallying from two TD’s behind in the fourth quarter for another OT win.  The week before that, the Texans were in a tough, physical game at Chicago in nasty, cold conditions that also was a one score game throughout.  That’s three consecutive ‘max effort’ games in a row.

Up next for Houston?  An AFC showdown at New England on Monday Night Football, with a chance to put themselves firmly in position for homefield edge throughout the playoffs.  In between those previous games and the Monday Read more

Tags: NFL Tennessee Titans Houston Texans Teddy Covers

NFL Gambling Notes: Tennessee Titans fire offensive coordinator, promote QB coach

11.27.2012     02:55 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Houston -5.5 at Tennessee O/U 47

Yesterday the Tennessee Titans fired offensive coordinator Chris Palmer and promoted quarterbacks coach Dowell Loggains. Jake Locker didn't expect there to be much change to the offense at this point in the season.

“Maybe some little things will change, probably more little details you might not recognize watching a game. It is hard to completely change if you want to do something in the middle of a season. I think there will be some subtle difference, though,” Locker said.

“We just want to take it one week at a time, and study and prepare as best as we can and try and get as good a grip as we can on what coach Loggains wants to accomplish offensively, and then go out and execute to the best of our ability.”

Tags: NFL Tennessee Titans Houston Texans

NFL Handicapper Free Play: Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins

11.11.2012     07:09 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Tennessee +6.5 at Miami O/U 44
Recommendation: Tennessee

The Dolphins haven’t exactly been beating up on quality foes.  Their four wins this season have come against the Raiders, Bengals, Rams and Jets.  Two of those four wins came by four points or less, not enough to cover this pointspread.  In the two games where Miami has been favored, they’ve won by three and lost by three, failing to cover the number each time.  The Dolphins have been outgained by nearly 550 yards over the last three weeks.  And, long term, simply betting the underdog in every Dolphins game has produced a remarkable 36-13 ATS streak, including a 6-1 ATS run entering Sunday’s game.

If there’s one game all year that we can expect the Titans to show up for, it’s this one.  Tennessee was thoroughly embarrassed and humiliated on their home field last Sunday; a game that was over by the end of the first quarter.  Owner Bud Adams was not amused: Read more

Tags: NFL Tennessee Titans Miami Dolphins Teddy Covers


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