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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Underdogs have owned the NBA Playoffs

04.28.2014     08:14 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Seven of the eight first round NBA Playoff series have proven to be competitive – only the Miami Heat have a commanding 3-0 series lead in their series over the Charlotte Bobcats.   After an opening weekend that saw underdogs go 6-2 ATS, 5-3 SU, the prevailing trend of upsets continued throughout the last week.

The current numbers are quite striking.  Pointspread favorites are a woeful 7-21-2 ATS through the first 30 playoff games.  In fact the favored team is just 14-16 SU – underdog moneyline bettors have been feasting over the first nine days of playoff action.  Therefore, it’s no surprise that the lower seeded team has the series lead in the Spurs-Mavs, Wizards-Bulls and Blazers-Rockets series, with potentially live underdogs still in play for Grizzles-Thunder, Warriors-Clippers, Nets-Raptors, and Pacers-Hawks.

What gives?  Why have the dogs covered at a 75% clip through the first 30 Playoff games?   Let’s start with the simple premise that the top seeds are more vulnerable than the markets expected while the lower seeds have proven to be no pushovers.

The #1 seeds (Pacers and Spurs) Read more

Tags: NBA Teddy Covers

NBA Playoff Betting Consensus: Gamblers like Monday's games OVER the total

04.21.2014     02:00 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Here are the top consensus bets for tonight's two NBA Playoff games courtesy of Bookmaker. Note that the percentages are based on the number of bets made not total handle. Also note that Bookmaker/CRIS is the only major sportsbook offshore or in Las Vegas to currently have Oklahoma City -6.5. The rest of the market has -7.

Oklahoma City -6.5 (51.0%) vs. Memphis
Golden State +8 (62.9%) at LA Clippers

Memphis-Oklahoma City OVER 190.5 (73.1%)
Golden State-LA Clippers OVER 212.5 (77.2%)

Tags: NBA Memphis Grizzlies Oklahoma City Thunder Golden State Warriors Los Angeles Clippers

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Recapping NBA Playoff Game 1's

04.21.2014     08:00 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
There were eight opening round NBA Playoff Series that started this past weekend.  The lower seeded road teams – all underdogs in Game 1 – went 6-2 ATS, including five outright upset winners.  There were four games that flew Over the total, three that stayed Under and one (Miami-Charlotte) that finished right in between the opening and closing total.

This is just the start of a two month NBA Playoff marathon, and those Game 1’s may not be indicative of how these opening round series are likely to play out.  Here are some key note and quotes for each series following those Game 1’s.

Miami looked sluggish and lethargic for extended stretches of their opener against Charlotte, but took over the game with an 18-4 run in the fourth quarter when LeBron James was sitting on the bench.  Head coach Erik Spoelstra:  “We were flat to start. I think our guys were just anxious."  LeBron: “That group that was in once I took that break at the 10-minute mark in the fourth quarter, they just bumped the lead. Obviously, to have three Hall of Famers in the game when I'm out of the game, CB, D-Wade and Ray Read more

Tags: NBA Miami Heat Charlotte Bobcats San Antonio Spurs Dallas Mavericks Atlanta Hawks Indiana Pacers Golden State Warriors Los Angeles Clippers Teddy Covers

NBA Gambling News: Mavericks will play regular rotation vs. Grizzlies

04.16.2014     02:19 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Dallas at Memphis -3.5 O/U 190.5

Dallas plans on playing its regular rotation tonight against Memphis despite having a postseason spot locked up. The team feels reaching the 50-win plateau is worth fighting for. Not to mention if they win they avoid top seed San Antonio is the first round. All three potential opponents (Spurs, Thunder, or Clippers) are obviously quality ball clubs but the Mavs haven't had a lot of success of late against San Antonio having lost nine straight.

“I’m not even thinking about that kind of stuff,’’ Carlisle said after Wednesday morning’s shootaround at the FedEx Forum. “If you can get a higher seed, if you can get 50 wins, you do it.

“It’s more than just avoiding San Antonio,’’ center Samuel Dalembert said. “It’s more like we have pride

Read more

Tags: NBA Dallas Mavericks Memphis Grizzlies San Antonio Spurs

NBA Handicapping: Playoff picture clearer but a few matchups still yet to be determined

04.15.2014     08:47 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
All 16 NBA Playoffs teams are set but there are still a few series that have yet to be determined. Indiana is the top seed in the Eastern Conference and will face Atlanta in the first round. Miami is the no. 2 seed while Toronto and Chicago are still fighting for the no. 3 and no. 4 seeds. With a win over New York tonight, Brooklyn would lock up the no. 5 seed. Washington and Charlotte are still in play for the no. 6 and no. 7 seeds.

In the Western Conference, Memphis is in following last night's win over Phoenix. Whoever wins Wednesday's Grizzlies vs. Mavericks game will be the seventh seed. San Antonio is the top seed followed by a TBA between Oklahoma City and the LA Clippers for the no. 2 and no. 3 seeds. No. 4 Portland will play no. 5 Houston in the first round. Golden State is the no. 6 seed.

Tags: NBA

NBA Handicapping: Phoenix Suns in must-win situation vs. Memphis Grizzlies

04.14.2014     07:01 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Memphis at Phoenix -2.5 O/U 195.5

A game behind Memphis and void of any tie-breakers in their favor, the Phoenix Suns need a lot of favorable bounces to reach the postseason. First, they'll need to beat Memphis tonight and Sacramento on Wednesday. They'll also need the Grizzlies to lose to Dallas in their season finale – the only problem is the Mavs are locked into the seventh seed and will have nothing to play for.

Tags: NBA Phoenix Suns Memphis Grizzlies

NBA Betting News: Memphis Grizzlies hope to recharge batteries

04.04.2014     07:43 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Like a lot of teams, the Memphis Grizzlies have expended a ton of energy during their postseason push. And you could tell at the end of their recent five-game West Coast swing (2-3 SU, 0-5 ATS) this squad was worn down. They got a much-needed day off on Wednesday and play host to Denver tonight. The Grizz currently own the 8th seed in the Western Conference via tiebreaker over Phoenix.

“It was one of those games, end of a road trip, (when you) can’t feel your legs, trying to push through it,” forward Zach Randolph told “It just felt like we were running in the mud.”

Tags: NBA Memphis Grizzlies Denver Nuggets

NBA Handicapper Free Play: Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors

03.28.2014     10:34 AM     ER Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ER Sports blog entry.
Memphis +2 at Golden State O/U 188
Recommendation: Memphis

Memphis hits the West Coast tonight to face the Warriors with revenge in mind.  Way back in December the struggling Grizzlies were trounced on their home court by the Warriors 108-82.  Of course, much has changed in the almost four months since they last played.  For starters, the Grizzlies are clearly hitting their late season stride.  They’ve been about as good as anyone in the NBA racking up a 28-9 record since January 10th.  Health is the main ingredient for the resurgence with Marc Gasol in the middle playing his usual all-around game.  The Grizzlies took some time to gel this season under new coach Dick Joerger.  Joerger tried to implement some new things in the early going, and there was an eventual give and take before the kinks were worked out.  With the playoffs approaching you can be sure no one will want to play this grit-and-grind squad.  Meanwhile, the Warriors Read more

Tags: NBA Memphis Grizzlies Golden State Warriors Erin Rynning

NBA Handicapping: Minnesota Timberwolves all but out of playoff hunt

03.24.2014     12:31 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Minnesota at Memphis -7.5 O/U 197.5

The Minnesota Timberwolves have been in a perpetual state of .500 for much of the season and as a result find themselves 6.5 games out of the eighth spot in the Western Conference. Following last night’s meltdown loss to Phoenix, the team appears accepting that the postseason isn’t going to happen.

“They’re ahead of us [in the standings], obviously,” Love said. “We looked at that like this was our playoffs right there, and we lost. So this one hurts a lot more than the others.”

Asked if this was as frustrated as he’s been this season, Love said, “No question. We should have won that game, plain and simple.”

Tags: NBA Minnesota Timberwolves Memphis Grizzlies

NBA Handicapper Free Play: Memphis Grizzlies at Oklahoma City Thunder

02.28.2014     09:39 AM     ER Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ER Sports blog entry.
Memphis at Oklahoma City -6 O/U 194.5
Recommendation: Under

The Thunder enter Friday night’s contest with the rarest of chips on their shoulder as they’re on a three-game losing streak.  The common denominator in all three losses has been their inefficient play on the defensive end of the basketball court.  In their three losses they’ve allowed an average of 114 ppg while being outscored by 13 points all on their home court.  All the talk this week has centered on improving and playing defense with great effort.  Well, we should get that tonight against the Grizzlies.  The Grizzlies are actually an easier team to defend as they still have issues spreading the court with a consistent outside threat.  Meanwhile, we know what we’ll get from the grit-and-grind Grizzlies.  This team slows it down as much as any team in the NBA, while playing some of the best defense the league has to offer.  These two teams met just over Read more

Tags: NBA Memphis Grizzlies Oklahoma City Thunder Erin Rynning


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