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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Analyzing the NFL Playoff contenders

11.30.2015     11:00 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
There’s one thing that has become very clear to me as the NFL season enters the December stretch run following another week of wild finishes and head scratching upsets.  The 2015 season is an ode to mediocrity.  You’re not going to find many (any?) truly elite teams. 
With the Patriots ongoing injury woes, when it comes to the elites at this stage of the campaign, there are only three teams I’d even consider: the Panthers, Cardinals and Bengals.  And all three of those teams have enough question marks to put them a good notch or two below where my top power rated teams were last year or the year before at this stage of the campaign.

It’s a similar story at the bottom of the league.  I’ve got eight teams grouped at the bottom of my power ratings: the 49ers, Chargers, Ravens, Titans, Browns, Saints, Jaguars and Rams.  All eight of those teams, while unquestionably weak, are capable of pulling upsets over playoff contenders, because they’ve all done it at least once this year. 

San Fran has wins over the Vikings and Falcons (still a playoff team if the season ended today).  San Diego Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




College Football Betting: Teams cash tickets following coaching departures

11.02.2015     07:52 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Add Hawaii's Norm Chow to the list of college football coaches that have been either fired, resigned, or retired this season. With the exception of UCF, teams have responded fairly strong against the spread following their respective coaching changes. Let's take a look...

Minnesota - Jerry Kill was forced to step down due to health reasons and the Golden Gophers responded with a big effort in a near-upset win over Michigan. Minny easily cover +10.5 but a wild goalline finish gave the Wolverines the 29-26 victory.

Miami - No Al Golden and no Brad Kaaya didn't stop the Hurricanes from pulling off the "upset" at Duke. They in no way deserved to win the game, but easily cashed +10 for their backers.

UCF - The Golden Knights have shown no fight following George O'Leary's departure. Two weeks ago, at home, they were crushed by Houston 59-10 and then last week, a similar outcome in a 52-7 loss at Cincinnati.

South Carolina - The Gamecocks have notched back-to-back pointspread covers following Steve Spurrier's resignation.

USC - After a decent Read more



Tags: College Football Hawaii Warriors




College Football Handicapping: Minnesota head coach Jerry Kill steps down

10.28.2015     07:32 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Sad day for the Minnesota football program as head coach Jerry Kill announced his retirement due to health concerns. Associate head coach Tracy Claeys will take over as interim. Under Kill's watch, Minnesota went 32-26 against the spread. This weekend, the Golden Gophers play host to Michigan. The Wolverines, who are off of a bye week (and the wild loss to Michigan State), were bet up from -12.5 to -14. 




Tags: College Football Minnesota Golden Gophers Michigan Wolverines Big Ten




College Football Betting Preview: Minnesota Golden Gophers at Northwestern Wildcats

10.02.2015     07:53 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Minnesota at Northwestern
Saturday, 9 am PT - Big Ten
CRIS Opener:
Northwestern -6 O/U 39.5
CRIS Current: Northwestern -3.5 O/U 41
Recommendation: Northwestern

All the technical trends point towards Minnesota in this ballgame.  The Gophers have been great underdogs in the Jerry Kill era; 10-2 ATS in their last dozen tries, the only two losses coming at TCU last year (in a game where Minnesota’s offensive line was riddled with injuries) and their bowl game against SEC East champs Missouri – two teams that are better than Northwestern.  The Gophers have covered on each of their last NINE visits to Evanston.  Meanwhile, Northwestern has been a pointspread disaster as home chalk, just 2-9 against the number in their last eleven tries.  No surprise, then, that the early money has poured in on Minnesota, driving the NW -6 opener down to the current four point spread.

But there’s one big problem blindly betting trends and angles like the ones presented above – they don’t factor in anything other than past pointspread history.  And whatever Read more



Tags: College Football Minnesota Golden Gophers Northwestern Wildcats Big Ten Teddy Covers




MLB Handicapping: Playoff probabilities as of 9/15

09.15.2015     08:14 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Quick breakdown of MLB's playoff picture.

American League

Toronto - With a three-game lead over the Yankees, the Blue Jays are currently 85.8% to win the AL East and 100% to reach the postseason.

New York - While a longshot to win the AL East, the Yankees have an 83.6% chance to earn a Wild Card berth.

Kansas City - A virtual lock to win the AL Central.

Minnesota - Trail Texas by one game for the last Wild Card spot. The Twins have a 28.8% chance to reach the postseason.

Cleveland - After fighting their way back to .500, the Tribe are still technically in the playoff hunt though have less than a 10% chance to make it.

Houston - Holds a slim half-game lead over Texas in the AL West. The 'Stros are 64.4% to win the division and 85.9% to reach the playoffs.

Texas - A 32.3% shot at winning the AL West and 65.5% to reach the Wild Card.

Los Angeles - One game over .500 and a 13.5% shot at the postseason.

National League

New York - All but a lock (9 game lead) to win the NL East.

Washington - Mathematically alive but the odds are below Read more



Tags: MLB




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: National League Preview

04.13.2015     07:23 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Last week in this space, I wrote a team-by-team overview of the 15 American League squads.  This week, I’ll shift my focus to the National League, breaking down each team from a Las Vegas perspective.  Teams are listed in alphabetical order, by division.

A week ago, the Atlanta Braves were viewed as likely bottom feeders following a massive offseason rebuild that resulted in only six players from opening day last year returning on opening day in 2015; lined in the same range as teams like Arizona, Colorado and Minnesota.  One week later and the market view of Atlanta has changed at least somewhat thanks to a 5-1 record with the best run differential in the NL.  Julio Teheran, Shelby Miller and Alex Wood all hav top-of-the-rotation stuff, but it’s hard to picture this anemic lineup continuing to deliver steady run support.

The Miami Marlins hung around in the wild card race into the dog days of August last year before Giancarlo Stanton’s Read more



Tags: MLB Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Bettors gear up for Final Four

03.30.2015     08:17 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The dust has settled from the madness that is March, with only four teams still standing in the NCAA Tournament.  And frankly, since the insanity of that opening Thursday morning when top seeds were falling like flies (Baylor, Iowa State, SMU), this tournament has not seen a bevy of upsets. 

In fact, the Vegas favorite advanced in 48 of the last 54 Big Dance games (48-6 SU, not ATS) since midday on the opening day of the tourney.  For only the second time this century, three #1 seeds reached the Final Four.  In this week’s Wiseguy Report I’m going to try to answer the question that everybody is asking: can anybody beat Kentucky; winners of 38 consecutive ballgames since the start of the season.

Since Kentucky is the most hyped team in recent memory, I’ll start with the Wildcats first.  Yes, this team won the title in 2012, going 4-2 ATS in the process during the Big Dance.  Yes, they reached the championship game last year; an undervalued commodity in March as they covered all four pointspreads on the way to the Final Four.  

But this year’s Kentucky team has simply gotten too much Read more



Tags: College Basketball Kentucky Wildcats Wisconsin Badgers Duke Blue Devils Michigan State Spartans Teddy Covers Las Vegas




NHL Handicapper Free Play: Minnesota Wild at Vancouver Canucks

02.16.2015     09:01 AM     Sammy P Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Sammy P Sports

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Minnesota +105 at Vancouver O/U 5
Recommendation: Minnesota


Last Monday I gave out a free play on the Minnesota Wild against the Vancouver Canucks which won in convincing fashion, 5-3.  Nothing has significantly changed in the last seven days to suggest this game will be any different.  In fact the Minnesota Wild continue to plow through the Western Conference en route to grabbing a playoff spot.  The Wild have now gone 8-0-1 in their last nine games.  Their defense and goaltending has been lights out and exactly what you think of when you picture a tough Minnesota team.  Since being traded from Arizona in mid-January, goaltender Devan Dubnyk has revitalized his career with a 10-1-1 record, 1.60 GAA, and four shutouts.  This matchup is exactly the same as last week and the fact of the matter is Vancouver simply does not match up well against Minnesota.  Vancouver being on home ice changes nothing except that we get an underdog price on the Wild.  This is a team that is healthy and playing with a ton of confidence.  There is no reason to hop off the train now, especially against a Canucks team that has lost Read more



Tags: NHL Minnesota Wild Vancouver Canucks Sammy P




NHL Handicapper Free Play: Vancouver Canucks at Minnesota Wild

02.09.2015     08:19 AM     Sammy P Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Sammy P Sports

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Vancouver at Minnesota -145 O/U 5
Recommendation: Minnesota


The Minnesota Wild have strung together five straight wins and are making a push at just the right time.  They’ve gotten back to tough defensive hockey during this stretch having surrendered just three goals in those five wins. Even more impressive is the 26.6 shots per game allowed. All told, the Wild shutout three of those five opponents.  Tonight they face the Vancouver Canucks in what should be another stepping stone for this talented group.  Just last week they defeated the Canucks 4-2.  Now on their home ice the Wild look to dictate that play again as they've won five of the last six meetings between these two teams.  Vancouver is coming off of a dominating 5-0 win over the Pittsburgh Penguins on Saturday night.  As strong as the Canucks look, they just don't match up well against the Wild.  Minnesota has killed 12 straight power plays and they will keep the dangerous Sedin brothers at bay tonight on the man advantage.  All signs point towards a strong push here from Minnesota.  When all pistons are firing on this team they are hard to Read more



Tags: NHL Vancouver Canucks Minnesota Wild Sammy P




NFL Handicapping: Playoff scenarios as of 12-8-2014

12.08.2014     07:24 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
AFC Divisional Round
#1 New England (10-3) vs. lowest Wild Card seed
#2 Denver (10-3) vs. highest Wild Card seed

AFC Wild Card
#5 Pittsburgh (8-5) at #4 Cincinnati (8-4-1)
#6 San Diego (8-5) at #3 Indianapolis (9-4)

Got a chance: Baltimore (8-5), Houston (7-6), Miami (7-6), Kansas City (7-6)

NFC Divisional Round
#1 Arizona (10-3) vs. lowest Wild Card seed
#2 Green Bay (9-3) vs. highest Wild Card seed

NFC Wild Card
#6 Detroit (9-4) at #3 Philadelphia (9-4)
#5 Seattle (9-4) at #4 Atlanta (5-7)

Got a chance: Dallas (9-4), San Francisco (7-6), Minnesota (6-7), St. Louis (6-7)




Tags: NFL



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