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NFL Handicapping: Wild Card road teams feature experienced quarterbacks

01.05.2016     10:23 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
One of the storylines for this weekend's NFL Wild Card round is quarterback postseason starts. As mentioned by Teddy Covers on Monday's Sportsmemo Podcast, the four road teams feature signal callers that have combined for 37 career playoff starts. Ben Roethlisberger has made 15 postseason starts with a 10-5 record. Russell Wilson has made eight (6-2). Aaron Rodgers has made 11 (6-5). And Alex SMith has made three starts (1-2); two with San Francisco and one with Kansas City.

On the flip side, all four home teams have quarterbacks who have never made a postseason start with Houston's Brian Hoyer, Cincinnati's AJ McCarron, Minnesota's Teddy Bridgewater, and Washington's Kirk Cousins. With the exception of McCarron (three career starts), Hoyer, Bridgewater, and Cousins have combined for 79 career starts but again, none took place in the postseason.




Tags: NFL




Using Strength of Schedule to Handicap the Wild Card Round of the NFL Playoffs

01.05.2016     07:57 AM     Printer Friendly
The theory is actually quite simple; since 2002, teams with a higher Strength of Schedule (using Sagarin’s Ratings) are a remarkable 37-15 straight up and 37-14-1 against the spread (73% winners) regardless of price and location. Even more amazing is that teams with a SOS differential of 10 or more went 23-4 SU, 22-4-1 ATS (85% winners). Taking it step further, teams with a better SOS that are underdogs went 15-11 SU, 19-6 ATS. Underdogs with a SOS rating of 10 or better went 9-4 SU and 10-3 ATS. This is not a perfect science when it comes to grading plays. For example, two years ago, the Colts opened -2.5 but closed +2. The 49ers also closed -3.5 at a number of shops which would have resulted in an ATS loss. That said, with 13 years of results, this is one of the strongest publically known NFL trends available.

NFL Wildcard Playoff Strength of Schedule Betting Trend 2002-14
Year
Away (SOS)
Home (SOS)
Score
SOS SU
SOS ATS
2014
Arizona (10)
Carolina (22) -5.5
CAR 27, ARI 16
Loss
Loss
2014
Baltimore (29) +3
Pittsburgh (30)
BAL 30, PIT 17
Win
Win
2014
Detroit (23) +6
Dallas (31)
DAL 24, DET 20
Loss
Win
2014
Cincinnati (18)
Indianapolis (24) -3.5
IND 26, CIN 10
Loss
Loss
 
 
 
 
 
 
2013
Kansas City (26)
Indianapolis (11) +2
IND 45, KC 44
Win
Win
2013
New Orleans (8) +3
Philadelphia (28)
NO 26, PHI 24
Win
Win
2013
San Diego (19) +6
Cincinnati (27)
SD 27, CIN 10
Win
Win
2013
San Francisco (7) -3
Green Bay (30)
SF 23, GB 20
Win
Push
 
 
 
 
 
 
2012
Cincinnati (31)
Houston (27) -4.5
HOU 19, CIN 13
Win
Win
2012
Minnesota (6) +8
Green Bay (8)
GB 24, MIN 10
Loss
Loss
2012
Indianapolis (32)
Baltimore (18) -6.5
BAL 24, IND 9
Win
Win
2012
Seattle (5) -3
Washington (15)
SEA 24, WAS 14
Win
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2011
Cincinnati (23) +3
Houston (32)
HOU 31, CIN 10
Loss
Loss
2011
Detroit (4) +10.5
New Orleans (31)
NO 45, DET 28
Loss
Loss
2011
NY Giants (6) -3
Atlanta (21)
NYG 24, ATL 2
Win
Win
2011
Denver (8) +8
Pittsburgh (26)
DEN 29, PIT 23
Win
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2010
New Orleans (25)
Seattle (28) +14.5
SEA 41, NO 36
Loss
Loss
2010
NY Jets (8) +1
Indianapolis (21)
NYJ 17, IND 16
Win
Win
2010
Baltimore (12) -3
Kansas City (32)
BAL 30, KC 7
Win
Win
2010
Green Bay (9) +1
Philadelphia (16)
GB 21, PHI 16
Win
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2009
Philadelphia (13) +3.5
Dallas (14)
DAL 34, PHI 13
Loss
Loss
2009
Green Bay (32)
Arizona (28) +2.5
ARI 51, GB 45
Win
Win
2009
NY Jets (4) +2.5
Cincinnati (17)
NYJ 24, CIN 14
Win
Win
2009
Baltimore (10)
New England (6) -3.5
BAL 33, NE 14
Loss
Loss
 
 
 
 
 
 
2008
Baltimore (3) -3.5
Miami (26)
BAL 27, MIA 9
Win
Win
2008
Indianapolis (10) -1.5
San Diego (17)
SD 23, IND 17
Loss
Loss
2008
Philadelphia (5) -3
Minnesota (14)
PHI 26, MIN 14
Win
Win
2008
Atlanta (24)
Arizona (16) -1.5
ARI 30, ATL 24
Win
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2007
NY Giants (2) +3
Tampa Bay (24)
NYG 24, TB 14
Win
Win
2007
Washington (1) +3
Seattle (35)
SEA 35, WAS 14
Loss
Loss
2007
Tennessee (18)
San Diego (6) -10.5
SD 17, TEN 6
Win
Win
2007
Jacksonville (13) -2.5
Pittsburgh (27)
JAX 31, PIT 29
Win
Loss
 
 
 
 
 
 
2006
NY Jets (8)
New England (4) -9.5
NE 37, NYJ 16
Win
Win
2006
Kansas City (17)
Indianapolis (5) -7
IND 23, KC 8
Win
Win
2006
NY Giants (9) +6.5
Philadelphia (21)
PHI 23, NYG 20
Loss
Win
2006
Dallas (23) +2.5
Seattle (30)
SEA 21, DAL 20
Loss
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2005
Carolina (24)
NY Giants (17) -3
CAR 23, NYG 0
Loss
Loss
2005
Washington (3) +1
Tampa Bay (32)
WAS 17, TB 10
Win
Win
2005
Pittsburgh (4) -3
Cincinnati (13)
PIT 31, CIN 17
Win
Win
2005
Jacksonville (25)
New England (8) -7.5
NE 28, JAX 3
Win
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2004
Denver (14)
Indianapolis (11) -10
IND 49, DEN 24
Win
Win
2004
NY Jets (4) +7
San Diego (18)
NYJ 20, SD 17
Win
Win
2004
St. Louis (22) +3.5
Seattle (29)
STL 27, SEA 20
Win
Win
2004
Minnesota (21) +6.5
Green Bay (26)
MIN 31, GB 17
Win
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2003
Dallas (18)
Carolina (13) -3
CAR 29, DAL 10
Win
Win
2003
Seattle (27)
Green Bay (23) -7.5
GB 33, SEA 27
Win
Loss
2003
Denver (19)
Indianapolis (4) -3
IND 41, DEN 10
Win
Win
2003
Tennessee (6) -1
Baltimore (28)
TEN 20, BAL 17
Win
Win
 
 
 
 
 
 
2002
Cleveland (17) +8
Pittsburgh (20)
PIT 36, CLE 33
Loss
Win
2002
Indianapolis (28)
NY Jets (5) -6
NYJ 41, IND 0
Win
Win
2002
NY Giants (30)
San Francisco (11) -3
SF 39, NYG 38
Win
Loss
2002
Atlanta (6) +7
Green Bay (27)
ATL 27, GB 7
Win
Win
Results
 
 
 
37-15 SU
37-14-1 ATS


In 2002 the NFL expanded to its current format of 32 teams; eight divisions with four teams each. There wasn’t much upheaval as the league added the Houston Texans to the AFC and Seattle switched to the NFC. Two new divisions were created as the league kept the integrity of the established divisional rivalries pretty Read more



Tags: NFL Kansas City Chiefs Houston Texans Pittsburgh Steelers Cincinnati Bengals Seattle Seahawks Minnesota Vikings Green Bay Packers Washington Redskins




NFL Handicapping: Wild Card round pointspread moves

01.04.2016     08:49 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The NFL's Wild Card weekend is set with two games on Saturday and two on Sunday. Let's take a quick look at the early market moves based on CRIS's openers.

Saturday
Kansas City at Houston
CRIS Opener: Kansas City -3 (-115) O/U 40.5
CRIS Current: Kansas City -3 (-130) O/U 40.5
Westgate Current: Kansas City -3 (-120) O/U 40.5

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
CRIS Opener: Pittsburgh -3 (+105) O/U 46ov-115
CRIS Current: Pittsburgh -2.5 (-105) O/U 46.5
Westgate Current: Pittsburgh -2.5 O/U 46.5


Sunday
Seattle at Minnesota
CRIS Opener: Seattle -5 O/U 42.5
CRIS Current: Seattle -5.5 O/U 42
Westgate Current: Seattle -4.5 O/U 42

Green Bay at Washington
CRIS Opener: Washington pk O/U 46
CRIS Current: Washington pk-115 O/U 45.5
Westgate Current: Washington -1 O/U 45.5




Tags: NFL




NHL Handicapper Free Play: Chicago Blackhawks at Ottawa Senators

12.03.2015     09:43 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Chicago -135 at Ottawa O/U 5.5
Recommendation: Chicago


The price has climbed a bit since the opener but I still think a wager supporting the Chicago Blackhawks is warranted tonight as they travel to Ottawa to face the Senators. Chicago was caught in that dreaded and always tough first home game following a long road trip on Tuesday night as they fell to the Minnesota Wild 2-1. I expect them to be much better tonight against an Ottawa team they have beaten in five of the last six meetings since 2011. The Senators had won four straight games prior to dropping each of their last two contests to Arizona on the road and Philadelphia at home. Ottawa is giving up far too much time, space and scoring opportunities these days and it is putting their goaltender Craig Anderson in a very difficult position where he has to be razor sharp to give them a chance to win. Ottawa has conceded 34+ shots on goal to their opposition in 8 of its last 10 games. Giving up that many looks at the net is going to cause trouble more often than not and Chicago’s very balanced offensive attack is poised to take advantage of these recent Ottawa shortcomings especially someone Read more



Tags: NHL Chicago Blackhawks Ottawa Senators Ian Cameron




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Analyzing the NFL Playoff contenders

11.30.2015     11:00 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
There’s one thing that has become very clear to me as the NFL season enters the December stretch run following another week of wild finishes and head scratching upsets.  The 2015 season is an ode to mediocrity.  You’re not going to find many (any?) truly elite teams. 
With the Patriots ongoing injury woes, when it comes to the elites at this stage of the campaign, there are only three teams I’d even consider: the Panthers, Cardinals and Bengals.  And all three of those teams have enough question marks to put them a good notch or two below where my top power rated teams were last year or the year before at this stage of the campaign.

It’s a similar story at the bottom of the league.  I’ve got eight teams grouped at the bottom of my power ratings: the 49ers, Chargers, Ravens, Titans, Browns, Saints, Jaguars and Rams.  All eight of those teams, while unquestionably weak, are capable of pulling upsets over playoff contenders, because they’ve all done it at least once this year. 

San Fran has wins over the Vikings and Falcons (still a playoff team if the season ended today).  San Diego Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




College Football Betting: Teams cash tickets following coaching departures

11.02.2015     07:52 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Add Hawaii's Norm Chow to the list of college football coaches that have been either fired, resigned, or retired this season. With the exception of UCF, teams have responded fairly strong against the spread following their respective coaching changes. Let's take a look...

Minnesota - Jerry Kill was forced to step down due to health reasons and the Golden Gophers responded with a big effort in a near-upset win over Michigan. Minny easily cover +10.5 but a wild goalline finish gave the Wolverines the 29-26 victory.

Miami - No Al Golden and no Brad Kaaya didn't stop the Hurricanes from pulling off the "upset" at Duke. They in no way deserved to win the game, but easily cashed +10 for their backers.

UCF - The Golden Knights have shown no fight following George O'Leary's departure. Two weeks ago, at home, they were crushed by Houston 59-10 and then last week, a similar outcome in a 52-7 loss at Cincinnati.

South Carolina - The Gamecocks have notched back-to-back pointspread covers following Steve Spurrier's resignation.

USC - After a decent Read more



Tags: College Football Hawaii Warriors




College Football Handicapping: Minnesota head coach Jerry Kill steps down

10.28.2015     07:32 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Sad day for the Minnesota football program as head coach Jerry Kill announced his retirement due to health concerns. Associate head coach Tracy Claeys will take over as interim. Under Kill's watch, Minnesota went 32-26 against the spread. This weekend, the Golden Gophers play host to Michigan. The Wolverines, who are off of a bye week (and the wild loss to Michigan State), were bet up from -12.5 to -14. 




Tags: College Football Minnesota Golden Gophers Michigan Wolverines Big Ten




College Football Betting Preview: Minnesota Golden Gophers at Northwestern Wildcats

10.02.2015     07:53 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Minnesota at Northwestern
Saturday, 9 am PT - Big Ten
CRIS Opener:
Northwestern -6 O/U 39.5
CRIS Current: Northwestern -3.5 O/U 41
Recommendation: Northwestern

All the technical trends point towards Minnesota in this ballgame.  The Gophers have been great underdogs in the Jerry Kill era; 10-2 ATS in their last dozen tries, the only two losses coming at TCU last year (in a game where Minnesota’s offensive line was riddled with injuries) and their bowl game against SEC East champs Missouri – two teams that are better than Northwestern.  The Gophers have covered on each of their last NINE visits to Evanston.  Meanwhile, Northwestern has been a pointspread disaster as home chalk, just 2-9 against the number in their last eleven tries.  No surprise, then, that the early money has poured in on Minnesota, driving the NW -6 opener down to the current four point spread.

But there’s one big problem blindly betting trends and angles like the ones presented above – they don’t factor in anything other than past pointspread history.  And whatever Read more



Tags: College Football Minnesota Golden Gophers Northwestern Wildcats Big Ten Teddy Covers




MLB Handicapping: Playoff probabilities as of 9/15

09.15.2015     08:14 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Quick breakdown of MLB's playoff picture.

American League

Toronto - With a three-game lead over the Yankees, the Blue Jays are currently 85.8% to win the AL East and 100% to reach the postseason.

New York - While a longshot to win the AL East, the Yankees have an 83.6% chance to earn a Wild Card berth.

Kansas City - A virtual lock to win the AL Central.

Minnesota - Trail Texas by one game for the last Wild Card spot. The Twins have a 28.8% chance to reach the postseason.

Cleveland - After fighting their way back to .500, the Tribe are still technically in the playoff hunt though have less than a 10% chance to make it.

Houston - Holds a slim half-game lead over Texas in the AL West. The 'Stros are 64.4% to win the division and 85.9% to reach the playoffs.

Texas - A 32.3% shot at winning the AL West and 65.5% to reach the Wild Card.

Los Angeles - One game over .500 and a 13.5% shot at the postseason.

National League

New York - All but a lock (9 game lead) to win the NL East.

Washington - Mathematically alive but the odds are below Read more



Tags: MLB




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: National League Preview

04.13.2015     07:23 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Last week in this space, I wrote a team-by-team overview of the 15 American League squads.  This week, I’ll shift my focus to the National League, breaking down each team from a Las Vegas perspective.  Teams are listed in alphabetical order, by division.

A week ago, the Atlanta Braves were viewed as likely bottom feeders following a massive offseason rebuild that resulted in only six players from opening day last year returning on opening day in 2015; lined in the same range as teams like Arizona, Colorado and Minnesota.  One week later and the market view of Atlanta has changed at least somewhat thanks to a 5-1 record with the best run differential in the NL.  Julio Teheran, Shelby Miller and Alex Wood all hav top-of-the-rotation stuff, but it’s hard to picture this anemic lineup continuing to deliver steady run support.

The Miami Marlins hung around in the wild card race into the dog days of August last year before Giancarlo Stanton’s Read more



Tags: MLB Teddy Covers



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Ian Cameron, Drew Martin, and Alex B. Smith. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Podcast Monday-Friday at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Podcast?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's podcast archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, CFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Mar 01, 2017 09:52 AM.