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December

21

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NFL Handicapping: Drive Point Averages Week 15

12.12.2013     11:45 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

What you see below are per-game averages on offense and defense for points scored and allowed on drives of 60 yards or more. That's a stat I've been keeping myself by hand from itemized scoring drives in boxscores ever since the USA Today started publishing them many years ago. In the first parenthesis are strength of schedule rankings from Jeff Sagarin at USA Today and Football Outsiders (in that order, and, largely converging now). In the second parenthesis is turnover differential. Games are presented in market rotation order. I tried to line up the numbers as best as possible by abbreviating some of the team cities…

Thursday

San Diego: 14.6 on offense, 16.1 on defense (19-31) (-3 turnovers)

Denver : 23.3 on offense, 15.0 on defense (20-29) (-2 turnovers)

Football Outsiders has mentioned somewhere that San Diego supposedly has one of the five worst defenses in the history of their stat methodology. I mean…it’s pretty Read more


Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




Monday Night Football Betting Recap: Bears roll past awful Cowboys defense

12.10.2013     06:52 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

The Dallas defense…which is bad at tackling in the best of conditions…REALLY didn’t want to play physical football in the sub-zero wind chill of a December night in Chicago. The Bears scored on their first eight drives of the evening. The ninth was taking a knee to run the final second off the game clock before everyone could head to the locker to warm up.

Chicago 45 (-2), Dallas 28

Dallas: 342 yards, 6.0 per-play, 0 turnovers, 50% third downs

Chicago: 498 yards, 7.1 per-play, 0 turnovers, 73% third downs

Other Numbers

Dallas: 198 rush, 14-25-0-144 passing, 28 drive points, 24 stat score, 11 sloppiness

Chicago: 150 rush, 27-36-0-348 passing, 32 drive points, 29 stat score, 9 sloppiness

For those of you wondering, the pace factor was a very low 133. The ultimate clock eating game because neither team wanted to stay out in those conditions. And, Chicago loves running clock anyway. Read more


Tags: NFL Chicago Bears Dallas Cowboys Stat Intelligence




NFL Handicapping: Drive Point Averages Week 13

11.28.2013     07:21 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Had time to put together a larger preview report than normal. What you see below are per-game Drive Point averages on offense and defense for all 32 teams…arranged in schedule rotation order. If you’re new to the website, Drive Points are only those scored on drives of 60 yards or more. Special teams and defensive scoring isn’t counted, nor are “cheap” points scored off field position. The goal is to get as clean a read as possible on “pure” offense and defense in terms of driving the field for points, and preventing the opposition from doing so.

Strength of schedule rankings from Sagarin at USA Today and Football Outsiders are in the first parenthesis (in that order) to provide some extra context for you, followed by turnover differential in the second parenthesis…

Thanksgiving Games

Green Bay: 16.3 on offense, 14.7 on defense (30-24) (-5 turnovers)

Detroit: 17.5 on offense, 15.6 on defense (26-17) (-7 Read more


Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




College Football ATS Analysis: Golden Nugget's GOY vs. CRIS - Week 13

11.18.2013     01:17 PM     Printer Friendly
Checking in with the college football betting markets as we compare the Golden Nugget's Games of the Year from early June vs. CRIS's current numbers. There are some wild differences this week with Wisconsin -10 during the summer and now -16 for their trip to Minnesota. Has anyone exceeded expectations more than the 8-2 Golden Gophers? Baylor went from +11 at Oklahoma State to -8.5. Iowa was catching doubles from Michigan but now nearly a touchdown favorite. BYU also went from a double-digit underdog to a road favorite at Notre Dame.

2013 College Football Lines Golden Nugget GOY vs. CRIS - Week 13
Away
Home
Golden Nugget
CRIS Current
Oregon
Arizona
Oregon -12
Oregon -19.5
California
Stanford
Stanford -22
Stanford -31.5
Arizona State
UCLA
UCLA -3
Arizona State -2.5
USC
Colorado
USC -24.5
USC -24.5
Kentucky
Georgia
Georgia -29
Georgia -23.5
Michigan State
Northwestern
Northwestern -3
Michigan State -7.5
BYU
Notre Dame
Notre Dame -11
BYU -1
Memphis
Louisville
Louisville -24
Louisville -24.5
Texas A&M
LSU
LSU -1
LSU -4
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Wisconsin -10
Wisconsin -16
Indiana
Ohio State
Ohio State -25
Ohio State -32.5
Baylor
Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State -11
Baylor -8.5
Washington
Oregon State
Oregon State -5
N/L
Nebraska
Penn State
Penn State pk
Penn State -1.5
Michigan
Iowa
Michigan -10.5
Iowa -6
Oklahoma
Kansas State
Oklahoma -4
Kansas State -3.5
Virginia
Miami (FL)
Miami (FL) -15
Miami (FL) -20
Vanderbilt
Tennessee
Tennessee -1
Tennessee -3




Tags: College Football




NFL Handicapping: Pace Factor Averages Week 8

10.25.2013     06:50 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Won’t have time to update these every single week. Will aim for every other week. I think most teams settled into their preferred styles pretty quickly.

If this is your first visit, we’re trying to paint the picture of pace styles by counting up total plays, penalties, punts, and field goal attempts per game…then tabulating team-by-team averages for the games that they play. This approach has confirmed what everyone had been assuming about up-tempo teams. Philadelphia is up near the top with their “Oregon” approach. Buffalo also brought in a college head coach and talked about playing at a fast pace. New England tends to play very fast unless it’s late in a game and they’re sitting on a lead. Those guys are in your top three. Cleveland told everyone in the offseason they would be emphasizing pace. They’re fourth.

To the degree we’ve been able to find something new and interesting…it’s down at the bottom. I Read more


Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




College Football Handicapping: Week 9 Injury Report

10.24.2013     07:17 AM     Brian Edwards     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Brian Edwards

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Kentucky QB Max Smith will get the starting nod Thursday at Mississippi State. Jalen Whitlow sprained his ankle in a 48-7 loss to Alabama two weeks ago and is ‘doubtful’ against the Bulldogs. Smith is more of a pocket passer, while Whitlow is a dual-threat option who averages 4.9 yards per carry and has three rushing touchdowns. Smith, a third-year sophomore who had eight TD passes before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury in Week 3 last year, has a 5-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio in 2013.

Vanderbilt quarterback Austyn Carta-Samuels is ‘out’ Saturday at Texas A&M. Carta-Samuels, who has a 10-7 TD-INT ratio this season, left last week’s 31-27 win over Georgia with a knee injury in the first half. Patton Robinette, a redshirt freshman, replaced Carta-Samuels and had a TD run early in the fourth quarter of the comeback win over UGA. Robinette will make his first career start against the Aggies.

Maryland might have been the biggest overall loser coming out of Week 8. The Terrapins got smashed 34-10 at Wake Forest and lost two of their best players to broken legs. Wide receiver Stefon Diggs is done for the season after Read more


Tags: College Football Brian Edwards




College Football Handicapping: Week 8 Injury Report

10.16.2013     08:24 AM     Brian Edwards     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Brian Edwards

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Before the loss to Texas last week, Oklahoma found out it would be missing senior LB Corey Nelson for the rest of the season due to a pectoral injury. The news got worse earlier this week when starting defensive tackle Jordan Phillips was lost for the rest of the year. Phillips will underdog surgery soon to relieve chronic back pain. Without Nelson and Phillips, the OU defense gave up 36 points and 255 rushing yards to the Longhorns. The Sooners had previously been allowing only 113.2 ypg and 13.0 ppg, so obviously Nelson and Phillips are already being missed.

Ole Miss will be without freshman sensation Robert Nkemdiche for the next three games due to a pulled hamstring suffered in last week’s gut-wrenching loss to Texas A&M. The Rebels might also be sans their other starting defensive end, C.J. Johnson, for Saturday’s home tussle vs. LSU. Johnson was downgraded to ‘doubtful’ after missing Tuesday’s practice with a sprained ankle. The offense is hurting, too, as one of its top weapons is ‘doubtful.’ That would be leading rusher and special-teams dynamo Jeff Scott (thigh), who is averaging 8.2 yards per carry and had a punt Read more


Tags: College Football Brian Edwards




NFL Betting News and Notes - Week 6

10.16.2013     08:17 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The Houston Texans Stand Alone

There are no more undefeated ATS teams in the NFL after Week 6 and there is only one team that is still winless – the Houston Texans who were ambushed at home by the St. Louis Rams in a 38-13 loss. The New York Giants, Jacksonville and Pittsburgh all snapped their winless ATS starts but Houston now stands alone as the only team in the league to not cash a ticket for their betting supporters this season. There was reason to be concerned prior to Sunday’s game but now it’s safe to say the Texans are in full on crisis mode. Matt Schaub has lost his confidence and his problems are no longer physical, but mental. He has an awful 8-9 TD-INT ratio and now is prone to making mistakes and bad decisions with the football. The offense has sputtered in the red zone all season long with the Texans converting red zone opportunities into TDs just 47.3% of the time.
 
The Houston defense hasn’t been as stout as they’ve been in the past yielding 29.5 points per game but they are still ranked 1st in the league in total yards and passing yards allowed which tells you that a lack of ball security has Read more


Tags: NFL Houston Texans Denver Broncos Ian Cameron




NFL Betting News and Notes - Week 5

10.09.2013     07:41 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Breaking Down the Undefeated and Winless ATS Teams
The list of winless and undefeated ATS teams continues to shrink after Week 5 of the season. Denver and Seattle were the two remaining undefeated teams but both came up short from an ATS perspective. However, there are still four teams looking for their first pointspread win of the season as we head into Week 6. Those teams are Houston, Jacksonville, and the New York Giants at 0-5 ATS along with Pittsburgh at 0-4 ATS.

The Giants, Jaguars, and Steelers have all failed to win a game straight up while the Texans are 2-3. New York will attempt to snap their SU and ATS winless streak in Chicago playing on a short week against a Bears team that has dropped their last two games. It doesn’t help the Giants have three major flaws right now. They can’t take care of the football, they can’t block up front, and their secondary has been ripped apart by each opponent they’ve faced.
Jacksonville finds itself involved this week in the largest pointspread in NFL history as they opened as 28-point underdogs against the Denver Broncos. The next largest spread was when the Pittsburgh Read more


Tags: NFL Ian Cameron




College Football Betting Preview: Northwestern Wildcats at California Golden Bears

08.28.2013     11:45 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Northwestern at California
Saturday, 7:30 pm PT - ESPN2
CRIS Opener:
Northwestern -3 O/U 58.5
CRIS Current: Northwestern -5 O/U 57.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Northwestern -5
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Northwestern

When Washington State went from good to mediocre to awful in the PAC-12, it happened rather predictably.  Mike Price had success in Pullman, albeit not every year, and he left the cupboard full for his successor, Bill Doba, when Price took the Alabama job.  Doba won ten games in his first year, and the Cougars enjoyed their third consecutive top 10 ranking at the close of the season following an upset win over Texas in the Holiday Bowl.

But Doba was not the right hire; unable to recruit (or coach) the way Price did.  Washington State quickly went from a top 10 program three years running to a squad that was struggling to reach .500 every year: 5-6, 4-7, Read more


Tags: College Football Northwestern Wildcats Big Ten California Golden Bears PAC-12 Teddy Covers



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