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September

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NFL Gambling: The impact quarterbacks have on Season Over/Under Win totals Part I

07.28.2014     06:59 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
I’ve been writing about NFL Season Win Totals for the last few weeks, using what I call “advanced metric schedule analysis.”  This week, the time has come to write about another stage of the 2014 pre-preseason team analysis that affects every win total on the board – quarterbacks.

Why quarterbacks?  Because more than ever, in the modern ‘pass happy’ era of NFL Football, the quarterback is the most important position on any team.  Of course a great quarterback can’t be great without a decent receiving corps or a decent offensive line, so those must be included in the equation when discussing quarterbacks. 

Here’s what I wrote last year in this space:

“The pecking order for NFL quarterbacks is well established.  Most of the best quarterbacks play for the best teams.  Peyton Manning in Denver, Eli Manning in New York, Tom Brady in New England, Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay, Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh, Drew Brees in New Orleans and Joe Flacco in Baltimore all wear Super Bowl rings.  All seven guys play for teams that are perennial playoff teams, and all seven of Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Preseason AFC Betting News and Notes

05.26.2014     08:35 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The LVH Superbook posted their NFL Season Win totals last weekend.  Cantor sportsbooks (CG Technology) have had season win totals posted for months.  Many other books both here in Vegas and offshore have posted season win totals, Week 1 pointspreads and Game of the Year pointspreads.  Most books that haven’t posted NFL numbers yet plan to do so in the near future.  The NFL offseason, at least for sports bettors, is essentially over.  Numbers are up, and they’re moving!

My first step in assessing the upcoming NFL season begins with a thorough look back at last year.  Every team’s power rating is set, in large part, based on where they finished the previous campaign.  Obviously, adjustments are made for injuries, luck, offseason improvements or declines, coaching changes and the like, but those base power rating numbers factor in what happened in 2013 very heavily.

In this week’s Vegas Wiseguy Report, I’ll pass along a tidbit or two from each of the 16 AFC teams in regards to last year.  My focus is on things that are NOT likely to repeat the same way in 2014.  I’ll offer similar Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Las Vegas AFC




Super Bowl XLVIII Prop Bet: Doug Baldwin Total Receiving Yards

01.30.2014     11:19 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Doug Baldwin Total Receiving Yards
Recommendation: Over 39.5


Baldwin’s season averages won’t support this wager – hence some early Under money that drove this total from 40.5 down to 39.5 at several key books.   But with Percy Harvin on the field for the Super Bowl, it should open things up for Baldwin.  And Baldwin has become Wilson’s go-to guy down the stretch.  He had 63+ receiving yards six of the last nine games that he was involved in the offense (he  sat for most of their Week 17 regular season finale), including a six catch, 106 yard effort against the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game.  And this is the type of wager we can cash with a single big play!

Last season Teddy Covers and his clients CRUSHED the prop bets with a 10-1 record. For Sunday's Super Bowl XLVIII, he has nine props with analysis and a recommendation on the game's side. Get them all for only $49.

Below is what clients received with Teddy's prop bet package last year...

WIN - Will There Be Three Read more


Tags: NFL Denver Broncos Seattle Seahawks Super Bowl XLVIII Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Bettors gear up for Super Bowl XLVIII

01.27.2014     08:14 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
It’s Super Bowl time again; the moral equivalent of Christmas Day for sports bettors. Yet many of the professional full time bettors that I know are rather disappointed with the proposition betting opportunities this year – there’s simply not much low hanging fruit. The biggest and best sportsbooks (market leaders both here in Vegas and offshore) have learned from previous mistakes. Bad numbers do NOT abound in 2014.

Let me start with the game itself. The Super Bowl itself has been an underdog bettor’s paradise in recent years.  The Ravens won the Super Bowl last year as the underdog, beating the favored 49ers. The Giants won the year before as an underdog; knocking off the Patriots. In 2010, the Saints won straight up as a dog over Peyton Manning and the Colts. In 2009, the Cardinals covered the spread in a tight loss to the Steelers. In 2008, the Giants beat the favored 18-0 Patriots outright. The only favorite to win and cover in the last six Super Bowls was the Packers when they beat the Steelers in 2011.

The underdog trend in the Super Bowl goes back even further than that, with four consecutive dog covers from 2002 through 2005 Read more


Tags: NFL Denver Broncos Seattle Seahawks Super Bowl XLVIII Teddy Covers Las Vegas




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: A trip down Super Bowl memory lane

01.20.2014     07:15 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
On the one hand, the Super Bowl is just another game for a professional bettor.  On the other hand, the Super Bowl has two major differences.  First and foremost are the prop bets; quite literally hundreds of wagering opportunities that allow bettors to wager from everything on the coin toss and the length of the national anthem to whether Russell Wilson will throw more touchdown passes than Manchester United will score goals on Super Bowl Sunday.  I’ll write about those next week.

The other biggest difference between Super Bowls and other games?  Simple – the Super Bowls stand out in our memories; every one of them.  I’ve been in Vegas since the 1998 football season, and I can tell you where I watched every Super Bowl, what the pointspread was and who covered. Thank you in advance for indulging me a brief trip down memory lane.

My first Super Bowl in Las Vegas was when the Broncos faced the Falcons as favorites of about a TD back in January 1999.  I watched the game in the stadium seating at the Imperial Palace racebook.  My handicap was simple, thinking Denver had a big edge having played in (and beaten) the Read more


Tags: NFL Denver Broncos San Francisco 49ers Super Bowl XLVIII Teddy Covers




AFC Championship Betting Recap: Denver's defense dominates New England

01.20.2014     06:49 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Masters class performance from Peyton Manning in terms of moving the chains and driving the field. Denver just marched up and down at will, though they had a tendency to stall and settle for field goals in a way that kept things in the neighborhood of getting interesting.

Early in the fourth quarter, Denver was up 23-3…with all 23 points coming on drives of 60 yards or more. That’s 3 field goals and 2 touchdowns. The yardage advantage after the drive was 430-160. Denver was 7 of 11 on third downs…meaning they were basically converting EVERY third down until they got close (only 1 punt, which came on their first drive of the day).

Manning finished with 400 passing yards, a 74% completion rate, no interceptions, and no sacks. As sharp as it gets.

And, you also have to give masters class credit to the Denver defense…because shutting down Tom Brady  most of the day like that ain't easy! Though, Patriots fans have actually seen a lot of this through Read more


Tags: NFL Denver Broncos New England Patriots




NFL Gambling: Betting public hitting underdogs and overs for conference title games

01.17.2014     01:41 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
It is underdogs and overs for the betting public according to Bookmaker's consensus numbers for this weekend's NFL Conference Championships. Note that the percentages are based on the number of bets made not total handle.

SIDES
New England +5.5 (77.3%) at Denver
San Francisco +3.5 (75.5%) at Seattle

TOTALS
New England-Denver OVER 56.5 (77.4%)
San Francisco-Seattle OVER 38.5 (68.3%)

MONEYLINES
San Francisco +165 (87.8%) at Seattle
New England +205 (84.4%) at Denver



Tags: NFL San Francisco 49ers Seattle Seahawks New England Patriots Denver Broncos




NFL Handicapping: NFC and AFC Championship Betting Notes

01.17.2014     07:35 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Back as promised to run the regular season drive point averages in matchup order. Will provide a few additional notes as well. The numbers you see below are from the regular season. I’ll make separate comments about what’s happened so far within the small sample size of the playoffs.

Drive points are those scored and allowed on drives of 60 yards or more, trying to get the best possible read on “true” offense and defense not polluted by cheap scoring. The first set of parenthesis shows strength of schedule rankings according to Jeff Sagarin of USA Today, and then Football Outsiders (in that order). The second set of parenthesis shows turnover differential from the regular season.

AFC Championship
New England: 15.4 on offense, 12.2 on defense (21-18 schedule) (+9 turnovers)
Denver: 21.9 on offense, 14.4 on defense (24-31 schedule) (even turnovers)

A little football feng shui there in the schedule rankings. Sagarin has them Read more


Tags: NFL New England Patriots Denver Broncos Seattle Seahawks San Francisco 49ers Stat Intelligence




NFL Handicapping: Look-ahead pointspreads for Super Bowl XLVIII

01.14.2014     11:33 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Here are the look-ahead lines for the four potential Super Bowl XLVIII matchups courtesy of William Hill sportsbooks.

San Francisco vs. Denver pk O/U 47.5
San Francisco -2 vs. New England O/U 47
Seattle vs. Denver -1 O/U 47.5
Seattle -1.5 vs. New England O/U 47



Tags: NFL San Francisco 49ers Seattle Seahawks Denver Broncos New England Patriots Super Bowl XLVIII




NFL Gambling: Conference Championship early line moves and historical results

01.13.2014     08:06 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
A quick look at the early line moves for this weekend's NFL Conference Championships. Denver opened -7 offshore and -6.5 at LVH but has since been bet down to -4.5/-5. Seen a small move towards the over. The two teams met in Week 12 with the Patriots (pk) winning 34-31 in overtime in Foxboro. The Broncos blew a 24-0 lead. Seattle opened -3.5 both offshore and in Las Vegas. A few shows moved off of the -3.5 to -3 with juice. The total has been bet down heavily from 41.5/41 to 39.5/40. The two squads split the regular season meetings: San Francisco (-2.5) won 19-17 but failed to cover at home in Week 14; Seattle (-3) won and covered 29-3 in Week 2.

In terms of historical results (see below), sides are split 7-7 ATS (favorite/underdog) while totals have trended over at 9-5 O/U. Road teams have covered four straight.

New England at Denver
CRIS Opener: Denver -7 O/U 54.5
CRIS Current: Denver -5 O/U 55
LVH Opener: Denver -6.5 O/U 55
LVH Current: Denver -5 O/U 55

San Francisco at Seattle
CRIS Opener: Seattle -3 O/U 41
CRIS Current: Seattle -3 (-130) O/U 39.5
LVH Opener: Seattle -3.5 O/U Read more


Tags: NFL New England Patriots Denver Broncos San Francisco 49ers Seattle Seahawks



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September

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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, Ian Cameron, and Paul Stone. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Sep 20, 2014 03:10 AM.