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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Updating NFL Regular Season O/U Wins

11.16.2015     08:05 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
I write a lot about NFL Win Totals and NFL Divisional Odds throughout the summer months; my preferred methodology for discussing the upcoming season.  As we approach Thanksgiving, with Week 10 in the books and the final bye weeks coming up this weekend, it’s a good opportunity to take a look at how those wagers are faring heading into the homestretch of the 2015 campaign.

The very first NFL season win bets cashed this past weekend.  Dallas fell to 2-7, ensuring that the Cowboys cannot go Over their 9.5 game win total.  Carolina improved to 9-0, cashing their Over 8.5 win total from last summer.  Seattle fell to 4-5.  Even if the Seahawks win all of their remaining games, they can do no better than push their 11 game win total. 

It’s a similar story with Baltimore, sitting at 2-7 now, with a win total of 9 from last summer.  A 7-0 Ravens run to end the season would only produce a push for Over bettors. And while I write this column before Monday Night Football kicks off, the Bengals are in prime position to cash their Over 8.5 win total, 8-0 now and sitting as double digit favorites against the Texans.

A Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Breaking down the NFL's five unbeatens

10.26.2015     07:59 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
We’re nearing the halfway point of the NFL season and five teams still remain undefeated; an unusually high number of perfect teams at this stage of the campaign.  There’s not much debate with the betting community about how to rank the five remaining unbeatens.  The New England Patriots are power rated at least a field goal higher than any other team in the league right now.  Behind the Pats come the Green Bay Packers, followed closely by the Cincinnati Bengals.  The Denver Broncos rank #4 on this list; with Peyton Manning’s ongoing struggles carrying more weight than the Broncos elite level defensive stats in the current betting markets.  Last on the list is the Carolina Panthers, still searching for market respect even after their win and cover against the Eagles on Sunday Night Football.

My goal of this week’s Wiseguy Report is to break down these five teams in terms of my probability of them producing a profit over the final ten weeks of the regular season.  Is it possible to make money with ANY of these teams moving forward, or have the betting markets eclipsed any semblance of future value?  Read on to find Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




NFL Gambling: Las Vegas SuperContest Week 7 consensus picks

10.24.2015     08:52 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Below are the top consensus plays for Week 7 of the NFL SuperContest.

1. NY JETS +9 at New England
2. ATLANTA -4.5 at Tennessee
3. ST. LOUIS -5.5 vs. Cleveland
4. CAROLINA -3 vs. Philadelphia
5. DETROIT +2.5 vs. Minnesota

Least picked Sunday side: New England -9 vs. NY Jets

 




Tags: NFL New England Patriots




NFL Gambling Preview: New York Jets at New England Patriots

10.24.2015     08:47 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
NY Jets at New England
Sunday, 10 am PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
New England -9.5 O/U 49
CRIS Current: New England -7.6 O/U 47.5
Recommendation: New York

The Patriots remarkable pointspread success has forced the betting markets to adjust.  Even after getting backdoored with a late TD by the Colts last week; costing New England backers their wagers, the Pats still remain the single most public team in the NFL – the defending Super Bowl champ that’s come out of the gate looking every bit as potent here in 2015.  That has left sportsbooks no choice but to bump up the number to support New England week after week; a point or two of Patriots' tax that leaves at least a little bit of added value on the opposing side every week.

But before we anoint the Patriots as repeat champions, let’s note that they’ve only beaten one team with a winning record all year – the Steelers; on opening day, when Pittsburgh was missing several key pieces of their top flight skill position talent.  The Pats failed to cover the spread in that game as well, and they were outgained by Read more



Tags: NFL New York Jets New England Patriots Teddy Covers




NFL Gambling Preview: New York Jets at New England Patriots

10.22.2015     08:19 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
NY Jets at New England
Sunday, 10 am PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
New England -9.5 O/U 49
CRIS Current: New England -8.5 O/U 47.5
Recommendation: New York

Surprising start by the Jets has made this a meaningful early season matchup with first place in the AFC East at stake. Each is already 1-0 against division foes and each ranks as the NFL’s #1 team in opposite categories. New York is tops in average points allowed (15.0 ppg) while the Patriots are #1 in average points scored (36.6 ppg). Adding to the positive differences between these teams is that fact that Football Outsiders website ranks New England as the #1 run blocking offensive line in the league and the Jets as the #1 pass protecting line. The contrasts make handicapping the fundamental aspects of this game extremely important but there are situational and historical angles that are relevant here too. Weather does not figure to be a factor in Foxboro this Sunday.    

The Jets stingy defense gained some more strength when DT Sheldon Richardson returned from his suspension last week. Now in his second week of Read more



Tags: NFL New York Jets New England Patriots Rob Veno




NFL Gambling: SuperContest contestants go all-in on New England Patriots

10.17.2015     07:59 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Below are the top consensus plays for Week 6 of the NFL SuperContest.

1. NEW ENGLAND -7.5 at Indianapolis
2. ARIZONA -3 at Pittsburgh
3. MINNESOTA -4 vs. Kansas City
4. BUFFALO +3.5 vs. Cincinnati
5. DETROIT -3 vs. CHICAGO

Least picked Sunday side: Pittsburgh +3 vs. Arizona

 




Tags: NFL New England Patriots




NFL Handicapping: Luck upgraded to probable vs. New England

10.16.2015     08:11 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Indianapolis Colts owner Jim Irsay stated that there is a "strong likelihood" that Andrew Luck plays Sunday night vs. New England. Backup Matt Hasselbeck started the last two games, both of which Indy won. Luck's probable status hasn't stopped the betting markets from piling on New England. The Patriots opened -7 and are now as high as -10.


“I really think that, unless something happens, I see him being a go Sunday,” Irsay said. “I’m not saying 100 percent for sure, but I think there’s a strong likelihood he’s a go. I was with him [Thursday], and he’s feeling a lot better.”






Tags: NFL Indianapolis Colts New England Patriots




NFL Gambling Preview: New England Patriots at Dallas Cowboys

10.09.2015     09:52 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
New England at Dallas
Sunday, 1:30 pm PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
New England -7 O/U 49
CRIS Current: New England -8 O/U 49.5
Recommendation: New England

Dallas lost to New Orleans last Sunday Night due to two primary factors.  First, their passing game with Brandon Weeden behind center instead of Tony Romo and Dez Bryant sidelined has been borderline inept.  That’s not going to change with an extra week of practice, nor will their QB play improve dramatically if Weeden gets benched for the just acquired Matt Cassel, who has crashed and burned at every previous NFL stop since his one successful season in New England back in 2008.

Second, the Cowboys very thin defense has become an injury riddled mess; a factor that won’t change significantly even with Greg Hardy and Rolando McClain expected to make their season debuts this week following NFL mandated four game suspensions for both guys.  A Cowboys secondary that couldn’t stop Matt Ryan two weeks ago or Drew Brees last week is ill prepared to stop Tom Brady and the Patriots devastating short passing attack this Read more



Tags: NFL New England Patriots Dallas Cowboys Teddy Covers




NFL Handicapping: Miami seeks better run game vs. Buffalo

09.23.2015     08:22 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
After producing 116 yards (3.4 ypc) combined the first two weeks, Miami is looking for ways to bolster its run game. Statistically, Week 3's opponent, Buffalo, has been stout against the run allowing 120 yards to New England and Indianapolis. Those numbers are perhaps a little skewed however considering the Patriots were more than satisfied to just throw the football (466 passing yards) and the Colts trailed by margin the entire game.


"We've got to get our run game going. When our run game is going, our offense can't be stopped," Pro Bowl center Mike Pouncey said. "Our play action [feeds] off of it. Our passing game works off it. When we don't run the ball, we don't give ourselves a chance."






Tags: NFL Miami Dolphins Buffalo Bills




NFL Handicapping: New England currently a consensus TD favorite over Pittsburgh

09.10.2015     07:05 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The NFL regular season kicks off tonight with New England playing host to Pittsburgh. Since the summer this line has bounced around due to the unknown status of Tom Brady. With Brady cleared to play, the Patriots reopened -6.5/-7. Recent New England money now has the game -7 across the board both offshore and in Las Vegas. The total ranges from 51.5 to the 52.5. The public of course likes the home chalk (67% according to Sports Options) with even more love towards the over (83%).




Tags: NFL Pittsburgh Steelers New England Patriots



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