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NFL Handicapping: Line and Total Update for Conference Championships

01.21.2016     08:26 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Quick line update for this weekend's NFL Conference Championships.

AFC Championship
New England at Denver - Noon PT, CBS
CRIS Opener: New England -3-15 O/U 44
CRIS Current: New England -3-20 O/U 44.5
Best New England Line: -3 at Greek/Pinnacle
Best Denver Line: +3.5-120 at Coasts
Best Over Line: 44 at Cantor
Best Under Line: 45 at Coasts

NFC Championship
Arizona at Carolina - 3:30 pm PT, FOX
CRIS Opener: Carolina -3-12 O/U 47
CRIS Current: Carolina -3-15 O/U 48
Best Arizona Line: +3.5-120 at Coasts
Best Carolina Line: -3 at Cantor/Wynn
Best Over Line: 47.5 at 5Dimes/Pinnacle/Greek
Best Under Line: 48 widely available




Tags: NFL New England Patriots Denver Broncos Arizona Cardinals Carolina Panthers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Conference Championship Preview

01.18.2016     09:37 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
March Madness has a lock on the Final Four terminology, but we’re down to the final four teams standing in the NFL Playoffs following a wild weekend of football.  In this week’s Wiseguy Report, I’ll take a look at how the Final Four teams still standing this NFL season survived, and what their realistic chances of Super Bowl success are moving forward into the Conference Championship Games this coming weekend.

Denver was outgained by more than two full yards per PLAY against the Steelers.  It was not vintage Peyton Manning, to put it mildly: 37 pass attempts for 215 yards, with only two passes all afternoon gaining more than 15 yards.  If you were watching the game, you already know how many missed connections that Manning had with his receivers – no shortage of inaccurate passes and dropped balls.  With the exception of one explosive 34-yard run by CJ Anderson, Denver’s running game wasn’t much better.  Anderson and Ronnie Hillman’s other 30 carries combined for just 76 yards.

But the Broncos avoided mistakes, playing turnover free football; the first time as a starter all season in which Manning Read more



Tags: NFL New England Patriots Denver Broncos Arizona Cardinas Carolina Panthers Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Evaluating the health of the remaining eight NFL playoff teams

01.11.2016     10:19 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Wild Card weekend is in the rear view mirror, with all four road teams emerging victorious on the opening weekend of the NFL Playoffs.  One game was a blowout, with the Chiefs destroying the Texans.  Two games were coin flips that came down to last second field goals, with the Steelers making their field goal while the Vikings missed theirs, allowing Seattle to survive and advance.  And the fourth game was a close contest that turned into a blowout by the end of the fourth quarter thanks to a performance from Green Bay that was as good as anything that we’ve seen from the Packers since October.

The mainstream media will focus on the quarterbacks and the head coaches, because that’s what the mainstream media does.  In the mainstream world, Andy Reid; noted for a decade worth of playoff failures in Philadelphia, is now a genius because his team is on an 11-game winning streak.  Aaron Rodgers, off the worst statistical season of his career, is now back to his elite self; thanks to one playoff win against a banged up defense. 

Serious bettors know one thing about the NFL Playoffs – health matters!  Do the Read more



Tags: NFL Kansas City Chiefs New England Patriots Green Bay Packers Arizona Cardinals Seattle Seahawks Carolina Panthers Pittsburgh Steelers Denver Broncos Teddy Covers




NFL Betting: Arizona and New England current favorites to win Super Bowl 50

01.06.2016     09:10 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Quick look at Pinnacle's NFL futures odds for the playoffs and Super Bowl 50.

To Win Super Bowl 50
Arizona +393
New England +400
Denver +588
Seattle +668
Pittsburgh +1051
Kansas City +1564
Cincinnati +2173
Green Bay +2499
Minnesota +4000
Houston +6500
Washington +7000

To Win AFC
New England +159
Denver +252
Pittsburgh +604
Cincinnati +944
Kansas City +822
Houston +2173

To Win NFC
Arizona +173
Carolina +175
Seattle +389
Green Bay +1102
Minnesota +1817
Washington +2352




Tags: NFL Arizona Cardinals New England Patriots Super Bowl 50




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Narrowing down the Super Bowl 50 contenders

12.28.2015     08:43 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
This is my last Wiseguy Report of the year.  That leaves me with two choices – a look back column or a look forward one. I’m a big fan of post-mortems following every NFL betting week; looking to learn from both winners and losers.  But when it comes to looking back over a whole season or a full year?  It’s harder (for me at least) to learn lessons in the aggregate; much easier when I condense those lessons down to individual games. 

After all, that’s what a season is – dozens of individual betting decisions; made one at a time.  So, while I’ve enjoyed one of the best NFL seasons of my handicapping career, there’s no point in looking back.

Sure, we can identify the worst beat of the year, that’s always fun.  I’d nominate anyone who had Lions and Under when they led Green Bay wire-to-wire on Thursday Night Football….until Aaron Rodgers Hail Mary touchdown pass with no time left on the clock that turned Lions and Under into Packers and Over.  Apologies to anyone who had St Louis plus the points at Green Bay in Week 5, a close second on my list.  But the better way Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Updating NFL Regular Season O/U Wins

11.16.2015     08:05 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
I write a lot about NFL Win Totals and NFL Divisional Odds throughout the summer months; my preferred methodology for discussing the upcoming season.  As we approach Thanksgiving, with Week 10 in the books and the final bye weeks coming up this weekend, it’s a good opportunity to take a look at how those wagers are faring heading into the homestretch of the 2015 campaign.

The very first NFL season win bets cashed this past weekend.  Dallas fell to 2-7, ensuring that the Cowboys cannot go Over their 9.5 game win total.  Carolina improved to 9-0, cashing their Over 8.5 win total from last summer.  Seattle fell to 4-5.  Even if the Seahawks win all of their remaining games, they can do no better than push their 11 game win total. 

It’s a similar story with Baltimore, sitting at 2-7 now, with a win total of 9 from last summer.  A 7-0 Ravens run to end the season would only produce a push for Over bettors. And while I write this column before Monday Night Football kicks off, the Bengals are in prime position to cash their Over 8.5 win total, 8-0 now and sitting as double digit favorites against the Texans.

A Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Breaking down the NFL's five unbeatens

10.26.2015     07:59 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
We’re nearing the halfway point of the NFL season and five teams still remain undefeated; an unusually high number of perfect teams at this stage of the campaign.  There’s not much debate with the betting community about how to rank the five remaining unbeatens.  The New England Patriots are power rated at least a field goal higher than any other team in the league right now.  Behind the Pats come the Green Bay Packers, followed closely by the Cincinnati Bengals.  The Denver Broncos rank #4 on this list; with Peyton Manning’s ongoing struggles carrying more weight than the Broncos elite level defensive stats in the current betting markets.  Last on the list is the Carolina Panthers, still searching for market respect even after their win and cover against the Eagles on Sunday Night Football.

My goal of this week’s Wiseguy Report is to break down these five teams in terms of my probability of them producing a profit over the final ten weeks of the regular season.  Is it possible to make money with ANY of these teams moving forward, or have the betting markets eclipsed any semblance of future value?  Read on to find Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




NFL Gambling: Las Vegas SuperContest Week 7 consensus picks

10.24.2015     08:52 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Below are the top consensus plays for Week 7 of the NFL SuperContest.

1. NY JETS +9 at New England
2. ATLANTA -4.5 at Tennessee
3. ST. LOUIS -5.5 vs. Cleveland
4. CAROLINA -3 vs. Philadelphia
5. DETROIT +2.5 vs. Minnesota

Least picked Sunday side: New England -9 vs. NY Jets

 




Tags: NFL New England Patriots




NFL Gambling Preview: New York Jets at New England Patriots

10.24.2015     08:47 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
NY Jets at New England
Sunday, 10 am PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
New England -9.5 O/U 49
CRIS Current: New England -7.6 O/U 47.5
Recommendation: New York

The Patriots remarkable pointspread success has forced the betting markets to adjust.  Even after getting backdoored with a late TD by the Colts last week; costing New England backers their wagers, the Pats still remain the single most public team in the NFL – the defending Super Bowl champ that’s come out of the gate looking every bit as potent here in 2015.  That has left sportsbooks no choice but to bump up the number to support New England week after week; a point or two of Patriots' tax that leaves at least a little bit of added value on the opposing side every week.

But before we anoint the Patriots as repeat champions, let’s note that they’ve only beaten one team with a winning record all year – the Steelers; on opening day, when Pittsburgh was missing several key pieces of their top flight skill position talent.  The Pats failed to cover the spread in that game as well, and they were outgained by Read more



Tags: NFL New York Jets New England Patriots Teddy Covers




NFL Gambling Preview: New York Jets at New England Patriots

10.22.2015     08:19 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
NY Jets at New England
Sunday, 10 am PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
New England -9.5 O/U 49
CRIS Current: New England -8.5 O/U 47.5
Recommendation: New York

Surprising start by the Jets has made this a meaningful early season matchup with first place in the AFC East at stake. Each is already 1-0 against division foes and each ranks as the NFL’s #1 team in opposite categories. New York is tops in average points allowed (15.0 ppg) while the Patriots are #1 in average points scored (36.6 ppg). Adding to the positive differences between these teams is that fact that Football Outsiders website ranks New England as the #1 run blocking offensive line in the league and the Jets as the #1 pass protecting line. The contrasts make handicapping the fundamental aspects of this game extremely important but there are situational and historical angles that are relevant here too. Weather does not figure to be a factor in Foxboro this Sunday.    

The Jets stingy defense gained some more strength when DT Sheldon Richardson returned from his suspension last week. Now in his second week of Read more



Tags: NFL New York Jets New England Patriots Rob Veno



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September

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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Ian Cameron, Drew Martin, and Alex B. Smith. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Podcast Monday-Friday at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Podcast?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's podcast archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, CFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Sep 29, 2016 04:47 PM.