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April

29

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MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals

05.04.2016     12:58 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Philadelphia (Morgan) +150 at St. Louis (Leake) O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Philadelphia


Every year, the betting markets swing and miss on a handful of teams.  Look back to last year and see how badly the markets reacted to Minnesota’s lucky first half run, when they went 48-34 into the All-Star Break following a 1-6 start, the single most profitable team in baseball to support during that span.

2016 is no exception.  The Philadelphia Phillies can’t hit worth a lick.  Their bullpen is supposed to stink (although it hasn’t).  They’ve been bottom feeders in every recent season.  And they’ve been outscored by 22 runs through their first 27 games; a comparable run differential with the last place Padres or the last place Twins.

And yet the Phillies are winning, just 2.5 games out of first place in the competitive NL East.  These quotes tell the story of a team that is worth backing right now, before the betting markets catch up  Slugger Ryan Howard:  "I'm having a blast.  There's a different energy and all that began in spring training."  Catcher Read more



Tags: MLB Philadelphia Phillies St. Louis Cardinals Teddy Covers




MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals

05.02.2016     12:19 PM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Philadelphia (Hellickson) at St. Louis (Wainwright) -170 O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Over


Not sold on Jeremy Hellickson who did have a good April posting a 1.19 WHIP and a pair of quality starts. The hesitancy toward backing him is that we’ve seen enough of his career to know exactly what he brings to the table and his early 2016 results are a bit better than what can be expected of him. That being said, even less inclined to back Adam Wainwright who has been abysmal thus far and looks to be in the mold of older veteran starter whose best days are behind him and now needs to re-invent himself. His 7.16 ERA through five starts isn’t a skewed number; he has been hit in every outing and has not recorded a game ERA lower than 4.50. Four of his five game WHIP results have been 1.50 or higher and he’s allowed 71 total bases including walks in only 27.2 innings. The St. Louis offense which currently ranks among the best in MLB has certainly come to the aid of Wainwright more often than not this season scoring eight or more runs in three of his five starts. Their MLB leading .845 OPS against RH pitching gives them a strong likelihood of Read more



Tags: MLB Philadelphia Phillies St. Louis Cardinals Rob Veno




MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals

04.29.2016     10:37 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Washington (Strasburg) -135 at St. Louis (Leake) O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Washington


It’s not hard to make a case for betting against Mike Leake in a matchup against Stephen Strasburg, a true starting pitching mismatch. Leake’s walk rate is at a career high through his first four starts, and his ground ball rate is at a career low, a bad combination for a pitcher that doesn’t record strikeouts in bunches. He’s given up at least four runs in each of his first four starts of the season, and the only game St Louis was able to win with him on the hill came in a game where they scored eight runs.

I’m not anticipating that type of offensive outburst from the Cardinals tonight against one of Washington’s aces, Stephen Strasburg.  The Nats are 4-0 with Strasburg on the hill this year.  He’s lasted into the eighth inning in each of his last three starts, with a 27-4 strikeout to walk ratio during that span.  Dusty Baker’s bullpen behind Strasburg is an elite unit even after taking a rare loss last night, ranked #3 in MLB in bullpen ERA.

Washington is hungry off an Read more



Tags: MLB Washington Nationals St. Louis Cardinals Teddy Covers




MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: St. Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres

04.22.2016     10:35 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
St. Louis (Wainwright) -128 at San Diego (Cashner) O/U 7
Recommendation: Over


Petco has historically been the lowest scoring, least hitter friendly park in all of baseball.  The outfield walls are deep, the power alleys even deeper and the ball does not carry in the dense warm air by the ocean.

And for the better part of the 21st century, the Padres pitching –both starters and bullpen -- has been consistently better than their lineup, keeping their totals deflated.  That’s not the case this year, especially with their bullpen, currently ranked #22 in MLB in ERA, off another dismal showing last night – eight runs allowed in three innings of work.  That’s particularly bad news with St Louis coming to town – the Cardinals have the second highest scoring offense in baseball this year while pounding out 38 runs in their first six road games.

The Padres have now gone over the total in five straight games on this homestand.  And there’s ample reason to think that San Diego will be able to put some crooked numbers on the scoreboard tonight as well against Adam Wainwright.  Read more



Tags: MLB St. Louis Cardinals San Diego Padres Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Narrowing down the Super Bowl 50 contenders

12.28.2015     08:43 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
This is my last Wiseguy Report of the year.  That leaves me with two choices – a look back column or a look forward one. I’m a big fan of post-mortems following every NFL betting week; looking to learn from both winners and losers.  But when it comes to looking back over a whole season or a full year?  It’s harder (for me at least) to learn lessons in the aggregate; much easier when I condense those lessons down to individual games. 

After all, that’s what a season is – dozens of individual betting decisions; made one at a time.  So, while I’ve enjoyed one of the best NFL seasons of my handicapping career, there’s no point in looking back.

Sure, we can identify the worst beat of the year, that’s always fun.  I’d nominate anyone who had Lions and Under when they led Green Bay wire-to-wire on Thursday Night Football….until Aaron Rodgers Hail Mary touchdown pass with no time left on the clock that turned Lions and Under into Packers and Over.  Apologies to anyone who had St Louis plus the points at Green Bay in Week 5, a close second on my list.  But the better way Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFC News, Notes, and Quotes

12.07.2015     10:21 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The NFC Playoff picture got a whole lot clearer following Week 13, as numerous contenders took a hit.  In this week’s Wiseguy Report, I’ll take a look at some notes and quotes from a handful of those losers from Sunday in an effort to gauge their competitive spirit moving forward.

Let’s start in New Jersey, where the New York Giants just lost four the fourth time in their last five games.  This time, the G-Men blew a double digit fourth quarter lead against the Jets, losing in overtime when Josh Brown missed his first field goal attempt in 26 tries this season.  Six of the Giants seven losses have come in winnable games; by six points or less, and this defeat marked the fifth time this season that they’ve blown a fourth quarter lead.

Some of the criticism is downright ridiculous.  Head coach Tom Coughlin is taking ‘Monday Morning Quarterback’ type heat for his decision to go for it on fourth and two from the Jets four yard line with under nine minutes to play in regulation.  Eli Manning threw an interception on the play; the Jets seized the momentum and went on to win the game. 

But Read more



Tags: NFL New York Giants St. Louis Rams Chicago Bears Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Analyzing the NFL Playoff contenders

11.30.2015     11:00 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
There’s one thing that has become very clear to me as the NFL season enters the December stretch run following another week of wild finishes and head scratching upsets.  The 2015 season is an ode to mediocrity.  You’re not going to find many (any?) truly elite teams. 
With the Patriots ongoing injury woes, when it comes to the elites at this stage of the campaign, there are only three teams I’d even consider: the Panthers, Cardinals and Bengals.  And all three of those teams have enough question marks to put them a good notch or two below where my top power rated teams were last year or the year before at this stage of the campaign.

It’s a similar story at the bottom of the league.  I’ve got eight teams grouped at the bottom of my power ratings: the 49ers, Chargers, Ravens, Titans, Browns, Saints, Jaguars and Rams.  All eight of those teams, while unquestionably weak, are capable of pulling upsets over playoff contenders, because they’ve all done it at least once this year. 

San Fran has wins over the Vikings and Falcons (still a playoff team if the season ended today).  San Diego Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: A look back and NFL Week 6

10.19.2015     08:29 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Week 6 of the NFL is in the rear view mirror as the 2015 regular season approaches the halfway point.  In this week’s Wiseguy Report, I’ll look to answer three questions that stood out to me following Sunday’s action.

How good are the Jets? 
In the midst of a season where there don’t appear to be a whole host of elite Super Bowl contenders, the Jets 4-1 start has bettors and pundits taking notice.  The Patriots, Bengals and Packers are the clear Top 3 teams in any reasonable set of NFL power ratings.  There’s a legitimate argument to be made that the Jets could be #4 on that list, ahead of or equal to other hot start teams like the Cardinals, Falcons or Panthers.

The Jets won only four games last year; their fourth consecutive non-winning season.  With Todd Bowles as the new head coach, New York was lined as a 7.5 win team here in 2015 in the offseason betting markets.  The training camp injury to Geno Smith left Ryan Fitzpatrick as the starting quarterback; a switch that the betting markets didn’t react to very much.  But Fitzpatrick has been a difference maker for New Read more



Tags: NFL New York Jets Miami Dolphins Seattle Seahawks Teddy Covers




NFL Gambling Preview: Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears

09.15.2015     01:26 PM     Alex Smith     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Alex Smith

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Arizona at Chicago
Sunday, 10 am PT - FOX
CRIS Opener:
Arizona -2 O/U 45
CRIS Current: Arizona -2 O/U 45
Recommendation: Arizona

The Chicago Bears opened up the year with a tough 31-23 loss to Green Bay. Running back Matt Forte was solid with 141 rushing yards and a touchdown and while Chicago's defense has shown some improvement from last season's horrific campaign, there are still some glaring issues. The Bears allowed 6.1 yards per play with some terrible displays of missed tackling and poor reading of rushing routes against the Packers. Things won't be any easier this week with Arizona. The Cards pulled away from New Orleans with two late touchdowns to earn the 31-19 victory. Arizona's tough defense held a very good Saints offense to four field goals and only 54 yards on the ground. Offensively, the Cardinals averaged 7.5 yards per play and were a perfect 3-for-3 inside the red zone.

The Bears are going to have to diversify their offense and take more chances when nearing the red zone. They seemed too reliant on short passes and screens last game and while Arizona has two Read more



Tags: NFL Chicago Bears Airzona Cardinals Alex B. Smith




NFL Gambling: Dolphins and Cardinals top SuperContest picks for Week 1

09.13.2015     05:20 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Below are the top consensus plays for Week 1 of the NFL SuperContest.

1. Miami -3.5 at Washington
2. Arizona -2.5 vs. New Orleans
3. St. Louis +4 vs. Seattle
4. NY Jets -3.5 vs. Cleveland
5. Green Bay -7 at Chicago

Least Picked Sunday Side: Cleveland +3.5 at NY Jets




Tags: NFL



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