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August

26

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MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: St. Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres

04.22.2016     10:35 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
St. Louis (Wainwright) -128 at San Diego (Cashner) O/U 7
Recommendation: Over


Petco has historically been the lowest scoring, least hitter friendly park in all of baseball.  The outfield walls are deep, the power alleys even deeper and the ball does not carry in the dense warm air by the ocean.

And for the better part of the 21st century, the Padres pitching –both starters and bullpen -- has been consistently better than their lineup, keeping their totals deflated.  That’s not the case this year, especially with their bullpen, currently ranked #22 in MLB in ERA, off another dismal showing last night – eight runs allowed in three innings of work.  That’s particularly bad news with St Louis coming to town – the Cardinals have the second highest scoring offense in baseball this year while pounding out 38 runs in their first six road games.

The Padres have now gone over the total in five straight games on this homestand.  And there’s ample reason to think that San Diego will be able to put some crooked numbers on the scoreboard tonight as well against Adam Wainwright.  Read more



Tags: MLB St. Louis Cardinals San Diego Padres Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Narrowing down the Super Bowl 50 contenders

12.28.2015     08:43 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
This is my last Wiseguy Report of the year.  That leaves me with two choices – a look back column or a look forward one. I’m a big fan of post-mortems following every NFL betting week; looking to learn from both winners and losers.  But when it comes to looking back over a whole season or a full year?  It’s harder (for me at least) to learn lessons in the aggregate; much easier when I condense those lessons down to individual games. 

After all, that’s what a season is – dozens of individual betting decisions; made one at a time.  So, while I’ve enjoyed one of the best NFL seasons of my handicapping career, there’s no point in looking back.

Sure, we can identify the worst beat of the year, that’s always fun.  I’d nominate anyone who had Lions and Under when they led Green Bay wire-to-wire on Thursday Night Football….until Aaron Rodgers Hail Mary touchdown pass with no time left on the clock that turned Lions and Under into Packers and Over.  Apologies to anyone who had St Louis plus the points at Green Bay in Week 5, a close second on my list.  But the better way Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFC News, Notes, and Quotes

12.07.2015     10:21 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The NFC Playoff picture got a whole lot clearer following Week 13, as numerous contenders took a hit.  In this week’s Wiseguy Report, I’ll take a look at some notes and quotes from a handful of those losers from Sunday in an effort to gauge their competitive spirit moving forward.

Let’s start in New Jersey, where the New York Giants just lost four the fourth time in their last five games.  This time, the G-Men blew a double digit fourth quarter lead against the Jets, losing in overtime when Josh Brown missed his first field goal attempt in 26 tries this season.  Six of the Giants seven losses have come in winnable games; by six points or less, and this defeat marked the fifth time this season that they’ve blown a fourth quarter lead.

Some of the criticism is downright ridiculous.  Head coach Tom Coughlin is taking ‘Monday Morning Quarterback’ type heat for his decision to go for it on fourth and two from the Jets four yard line with under nine minutes to play in regulation.  Eli Manning threw an interception on the play; the Jets seized the momentum and went on to win the game. 

But Read more



Tags: NFL New York Giants St. Louis Rams Chicago Bears Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Analyzing the NFL Playoff contenders

11.30.2015     11:00 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
There’s one thing that has become very clear to me as the NFL season enters the December stretch run following another week of wild finishes and head scratching upsets.  The 2015 season is an ode to mediocrity.  You’re not going to find many (any?) truly elite teams. 
With the Patriots ongoing injury woes, when it comes to the elites at this stage of the campaign, there are only three teams I’d even consider: the Panthers, Cardinals and Bengals.  And all three of those teams have enough question marks to put them a good notch or two below where my top power rated teams were last year or the year before at this stage of the campaign.

It’s a similar story at the bottom of the league.  I’ve got eight teams grouped at the bottom of my power ratings: the 49ers, Chargers, Ravens, Titans, Browns, Saints, Jaguars and Rams.  All eight of those teams, while unquestionably weak, are capable of pulling upsets over playoff contenders, because they’ve all done it at least once this year. 

San Fran has wins over the Vikings and Falcons (still a playoff team if the season ended today).  San Diego Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: A look back and NFL Week 6

10.19.2015     08:29 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Week 6 of the NFL is in the rear view mirror as the 2015 regular season approaches the halfway point.  In this week’s Wiseguy Report, I’ll look to answer three questions that stood out to me following Sunday’s action.

How good are the Jets? 
In the midst of a season where there don’t appear to be a whole host of elite Super Bowl contenders, the Jets 4-1 start has bettors and pundits taking notice.  The Patriots, Bengals and Packers are the clear Top 3 teams in any reasonable set of NFL power ratings.  There’s a legitimate argument to be made that the Jets could be #4 on that list, ahead of or equal to other hot start teams like the Cardinals, Falcons or Panthers.

The Jets won only four games last year; their fourth consecutive non-winning season.  With Todd Bowles as the new head coach, New York was lined as a 7.5 win team here in 2015 in the offseason betting markets.  The training camp injury to Geno Smith left Ryan Fitzpatrick as the starting quarterback; a switch that the betting markets didn’t react to very much.  But Fitzpatrick has been a difference maker for New Read more



Tags: NFL New York Jets Miami Dolphins Seattle Seahawks Teddy Covers




NFL Gambling Preview: Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears

09.15.2015     01:26 PM     Alex Smith     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Alex Smith

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Arizona at Chicago
Sunday, 10 am PT - FOX
CRIS Opener:
Arizona -2 O/U 45
CRIS Current: Arizona -2 O/U 45
Recommendation: Arizona

The Chicago Bears opened up the year with a tough 31-23 loss to Green Bay. Running back Matt Forte was solid with 141 rushing yards and a touchdown and while Chicago's defense has shown some improvement from last season's horrific campaign, there are still some glaring issues. The Bears allowed 6.1 yards per play with some terrible displays of missed tackling and poor reading of rushing routes against the Packers. Things won't be any easier this week with Arizona. The Cards pulled away from New Orleans with two late touchdowns to earn the 31-19 victory. Arizona's tough defense held a very good Saints offense to four field goals and only 54 yards on the ground. Offensively, the Cardinals averaged 7.5 yards per play and were a perfect 3-for-3 inside the red zone.

The Bears are going to have to diversify their offense and take more chances when nearing the red zone. They seemed too reliant on short passes and screens last game and while Arizona has two Read more



Tags: NFL Chicago Bears Airzona Cardinals Alex B. Smith




NFL Gambling: Dolphins and Cardinals top SuperContest picks for Week 1

09.13.2015     05:20 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Below are the top consensus plays for Week 1 of the NFL SuperContest.

1. Miami -3.5 at Washington
2. Arizona -2.5 vs. New Orleans
3. St. Louis +4 vs. Seattle
4. NY Jets -3.5 vs. Cleveland
5. Green Bay -7 at Chicago

Least Picked Sunday Side: Cleveland +3.5 at NY Jets




Tags: NFL




MLB Handicapper Free Play: St. Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks

08.24.2015     11:02 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
St. Louis (Lynn) at Arizona (Ray) +110 O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Arizona


Cardinals’ starter Lance Lynn has recently lost command of the strike zone walking 15 batters in his last five starts which spans 25.1 IP. That number is a bit alarming since he had only walked 34 in his first 18 starts (109.1 IP) and it has shown up in the Cards’ 2-3 record over his last five outings. While Arizona has a few impatient bats in their lineup (most notably leadoff hitter Ender Inciarte), they show enough plate discipline overall and should enter with a game plan to force Lynn into the strike zone. Offensively, the Diamondbacks have been rolling since the break recording a .274 team BA, .355 OBP, and .786 OPS and in their 16 home games during that stretch they’ve been even better, .290/.376/.832. They did face Lynn here at Chase Field earlier this season and got 6 hits and 4 walks off him in six innings of an eventual 4-3 loss. For St. Louis, yesterday’s breakout 10-run performance at San Diego was much needed since their injury riddled offense has been sputtering this month hitting just .237 with a .312 OBP. Their hitting splits show Read more



Tags: MLB St. Louis Cardinals Arizona Diamondbacks Rob Veno




MLB Handicapping: St. Louis Cardinals continue to win, defy logic

08.14.2015     07:19 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Interesting article courtesy of Grantland on the St. Louis Cardinals and their continued dominance. Some of their achievements (73-41, +24 units) make sense statistically. For example, the Cards' Pythagorean W-L (72-42) is right in line with their over record. Outscore your opponents by a run per game and you're going to post a really good record. But how they got that +1.0 run differential is what the article questions. For example, the pitching staff is on pace to post the best left-on-base percentage of all-time (81.0%). Their current ERA (2.63) is the best we've seen since 1972 which leads us to ERA-FIP differential. The Royals have the second biggest mark in the league (3.61 ERA/3.93 FIP = -0.31 diff) whereas the Cardinals own an eye-popping -0.69 diff. Basically, the pitching staff is good but no different than a lot of other "good" staffs with the exception of not letting dudes score when they get on base. There are other factors as well that appear to straddle the line between skill (the "Cardinal way") and luck (probably not sustainable). Either Read more



Tags: MLB St. Louis Cardinals




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: How to bet NFL Season O/U Wins Part II

08.10.2015     10:17 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Last week in this space, I looked back at last year’s final NFL standings and discussed the impact of strength of schedule models on those results.  I differentiated between mainstream widely available numbers for the 2014 strength of schedule (simply adding up wins and losses for every opponent) and my own formula, relying on power rating numbers from the week that the game was played. 

The goal was simple -- getting more accurate numbers to properly assess last year’s results in strength of schedule context as a starting point for 2015.

We’re done with last year now. This week, I’ll focus on the 2015 NFL strength of schedule as they relate to season win totals.  Once again, my goal is to differentiate between the mainstream numbers and the meaningful ones.

Google ‘2015 NFL Strength of Schedule’ and you’ll find countless charts exactly like this one.
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (.579)
2. Cincinnati Bengals (.563)
3. Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Las Vegas



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