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December

13

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MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals

07.06.2016     10:56 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Pittsburgh (Locke) +150 at St. Louis (Garcia) O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Pittsburgh


We’ve got lefty vs. lefty in St Louis tonight.  The Pirates are an above average hitting team against opposing southpaws, and they’ve got a .600 winning percentage against opposing lefty starters.  Meanwhile, the Cardinals rank #25 in MLB in OPS vs lefties, and they have a sub .500 record against them.  Advantage: Pittsburgh.

Pirates starter Jeff Locke is NOT respected in the betting markets and his aggregate stats aren’t all that pretty.  Locke has a 5.13 ERA and a 5.01 xFIP which appears to show that his dismal ERA is no fluke.  But both of those are very misleading numbers, especially compared to his current form.

In early June, Locke was asked to take one for the team in Colorado on a day where the Pirates had no fresh arms in their bullpen.  The box score was ugly: 11 earned runs allowed in 4.1 innings of work.  His next start was ugly as well, allowing another seven earned runs in four innings against the Mets.  A third of the runs he’s allowed ALL YEAR came in those two Read more



Tags: MLB Pittsburgh Pirates St. Louis Cardinals Teddy Covers




MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Texas Rangers at St. Louis Cardinals

06.17.2016     10:55 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Texas (Hamels) at St. Louis (Wacha) -108 O/U 8
Recommendation: Over


Cole Hamels has had one fatal flaw this season that has doomed his chances of cashing many Under bets.  Hamels has been flying Over the total with regularity – six of his last seven starts have cashed Over tickets.  A pitcher with a career home run to fly ball ratio of 11.4% has seen that percentage nearly double to 22.7% this year.

Hamels has allowed 15 dingers in 83 innings of work this year.  To put that number in perspective, he had allowed only 36 home runs in 417 innings of work over the previous three seasons.  Of 99 pitchers with enough innings to qualify, Hamels home run rate ranks dead last in the majors here in 2016.

It’s surely worth noting that Hamels walks per nine innings is also at a career high this season – clearly, the home runs are making him hesitant to throw strikes; bad news against the patient, potent Cardinals lineup that has pounded out five runs or more in seven of their last ten contests.

But Michael Wacha is not a trustworthy hurler tonight either.  Wacha has been an Over machine all Read more



Tags: MLB Texas Rangers St. Louis Cardinals Teddy Covers




MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Oakland A's at Milwaukee Brewers

06.07.2016     10:15 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Oakland (Manaea) +110 at Milwaukee (Davies) O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Oakland


After a rough beginning to his MLB career, Oakland's Sean Manaea is showing signs of the potential the Athletics saw in him when they picked him up from the Royals. Manaea has really started to turn things around over his last few starts allowing three runs or less in three of his last four starts with a much better 19-8 K-to-BB ratio during that span. His road ERA shows 27.00 but it was one rotten start against the very potent Boston Red Sox lineup. He should find it to be a much more manageable matchup in Milwaukee against a Brewers team hitting just .230 against lefties. After facing some tough AL lineups in his first seven starts including the likes of Boston, Houston, Seattle and Texas, this should be a bit of a step down in class. On the flip side, Zach Davies is coming off a surprisingly dominant outing against the St. Louis Cardinals in which he threw eight shutout innings. However, it’s worth noting Davies still has very mediocre peripheral numbers. His ERA is 4.53 and his FIP and xFIP are right in line with that. His walks (2.72) per 9 innings and strikeouts Read more



Tags: MLB Oakland A's Milwaukee Brewers Ian Cameron




MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Angels

05.11.2016     01:02 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
St. Louis (Garcia) -135 at Los Angeles (Shoemaker) O/U 7.5
Recommendation: St. Louis


The LA Angels are in a world of hurt right now, just a game out of last place after losing four straight and eight of their last ten.  Other than Mike Trout, LA’s lineup doesn’t have a single hitter that scares opposing hurlers.  Albert Pujols batting average is down to .183 with only 3 RBI’s in May.  Andrelton Simmons just went on the DL with a bad thumb that needs surgery.  LA has plated only six runs during this 0-4 skid at home.

LA’s pitching staff is problematic as well.  Four Angels starters are already on the DL, forcing them to recall Matt Shoemaker from Triple-A.  Shoemaker was lit up for six runs or more three times in five April starts  he went 1-6 on this mound in ten starts last year.  Behind Shoemaker, the Angels bullpen is completely spent already – only once in their last ten games has LA’s starter lasted through the sixth inning.

St Louis has pounded out 19 runs in their last three games, coming off a four homer blowout win on this field last night.  Read more



Tags: MLB St. Louis Cardinals Los Angeles Angels Teddy Covers




MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs

05.05.2016     09:52 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Washington (Ross) +132 at Chicago (Hendricks) O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Washington


The Chicago Cubs are coming off a series sweep against Pittsburgh that improved their record to an impressive 20-6. Washington has been red hot too with impressive back-to-back series wins against St. Louis and Kansas City. I think they offer value as underdogs tonight in this series opener between a pair of surging NL squads. The Nationals have a very strong and promising young starter in Joe Ross on the mound tonight. Ross sports a 0.79 ERA in four starts and shut down the Cardinals in his most recent outing by allowing only a single run in six innings. Ross has allowed three runs or less in nine of his last 10 starts dating back to last season. And he currently sports the lowest “hard hit” rate (16.9%) among MLB pitchers with 20 or more innings. Kyle Hendricks has done an adequate job thus far (3.52 ERA) with a groundball rate near 60%. He’s a quintessential middle-of-the-rotation arm that tends to be priced on the high side due to his affiliation with the best team in baseball. He’ll be facing a red hot Nationals lineup that has scored 38 runs Read more



Tags: MLB Washington Nationals Chicago Cubs Ian Cameron




MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals

05.04.2016     12:58 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Philadelphia (Morgan) +150 at St. Louis (Leake) O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Philadelphia


Every year, the betting markets swing and miss on a handful of teams.  Look back to last year and see how badly the markets reacted to Minnesota’s lucky first half run, when they went 48-34 into the All-Star Break following a 1-6 start, the single most profitable team in baseball to support during that span.

2016 is no exception.  The Philadelphia Phillies can’t hit worth a lick.  Their bullpen is supposed to stink (although it hasn’t).  They’ve been bottom feeders in every recent season.  And they’ve been outscored by 22 runs through their first 27 games; a comparable run differential with the last place Padres or the last place Twins.

And yet the Phillies are winning, just 2.5 games out of first place in the competitive NL East.  These quotes tell the story of a team that is worth backing right now, before the betting markets catch up  Slugger Ryan Howard:  "I'm having a blast.  There's a different energy and all that began in spring training."  Catcher Read more



Tags: MLB Philadelphia Phillies St. Louis Cardinals Teddy Covers




MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Philadelphia Phillies at St. Louis Cardinals

05.02.2016     12:19 PM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Philadelphia (Hellickson) at St. Louis (Wainwright) -170 O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Over


Not sold on Jeremy Hellickson who did have a good April posting a 1.19 WHIP and a pair of quality starts. The hesitancy toward backing him is that we’ve seen enough of his career to know exactly what he brings to the table and his early 2016 results are a bit better than what can be expected of him. That being said, even less inclined to back Adam Wainwright who has been abysmal thus far and looks to be in the mold of older veteran starter whose best days are behind him and now needs to re-invent himself. His 7.16 ERA through five starts isn’t a skewed number; he has been hit in every outing and has not recorded a game ERA lower than 4.50. Four of his five game WHIP results have been 1.50 or higher and he’s allowed 71 total bases including walks in only 27.2 innings. The St. Louis offense which currently ranks among the best in MLB has certainly come to the aid of Wainwright more often than not this season scoring eight or more runs in three of his five starts. Their MLB leading .845 OPS against RH pitching gives them a strong likelihood of Read more



Tags: MLB Philadelphia Phillies St. Louis Cardinals Rob Veno




MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals

04.29.2016     10:37 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Washington (Strasburg) -135 at St. Louis (Leake) O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Washington


It’s not hard to make a case for betting against Mike Leake in a matchup against Stephen Strasburg, a true starting pitching mismatch. Leake’s walk rate is at a career high through his first four starts, and his ground ball rate is at a career low, a bad combination for a pitcher that doesn’t record strikeouts in bunches. He’s given up at least four runs in each of his first four starts of the season, and the only game St Louis was able to win with him on the hill came in a game where they scored eight runs.

I’m not anticipating that type of offensive outburst from the Cardinals tonight against one of Washington’s aces, Stephen Strasburg.  The Nats are 4-0 with Strasburg on the hill this year.  He’s lasted into the eighth inning in each of his last three starts, with a 27-4 strikeout to walk ratio during that span.  Dusty Baker’s bullpen behind Strasburg is an elite unit even after taking a rare loss last night, ranked #3 in MLB in bullpen ERA.

Washington is hungry off an Read more



Tags: MLB Washington Nationals St. Louis Cardinals Teddy Covers




MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: St. Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres

04.22.2016     10:35 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
St. Louis (Wainwright) -128 at San Diego (Cashner) O/U 7
Recommendation: Over


Petco has historically been the lowest scoring, least hitter friendly park in all of baseball.  The outfield walls are deep, the power alleys even deeper and the ball does not carry in the dense warm air by the ocean.

And for the better part of the 21st century, the Padres pitching –both starters and bullpen -- has been consistently better than their lineup, keeping their totals deflated.  That’s not the case this year, especially with their bullpen, currently ranked #22 in MLB in ERA, off another dismal showing last night – eight runs allowed in three innings of work.  That’s particularly bad news with St Louis coming to town – the Cardinals have the second highest scoring offense in baseball this year while pounding out 38 runs in their first six road games.

The Padres have now gone over the total in five straight games on this homestand.  And there’s ample reason to think that San Diego will be able to put some crooked numbers on the scoreboard tonight as well against Adam Wainwright.  Read more



Tags: MLB St. Louis Cardinals San Diego Padres Teddy Covers



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December

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