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MLB Handicapper Free Play: St. Louis Cardinals at New York Mets

05.18.2015     08:52 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
St. Louis (Lackey) at New York (Harvey) -126 O/U 6.5
Recommendation: New York


Considering Matt Harvey missed all of last season I'd say he's exceeded expectations in 2015. Through seven starts Harvey has produced a stellar 47-7 K-to-BB ratio to go with a 2.31 ERA. I noticed that Harvey has been pretty judicious about using his slider thus far following last year's arm surgery. Prior to his last start he used it only about 10% of the time. Against the Cubs, Harvey threw it 20% of the time and he tied his season-best with 9 strikeouts and posted a season-best 17 swinging strikes. It's scary to think he's still "rounding into form." John Lackey has been solid this season but simply doesn't stack up to Harvey. Lackey's K-rate is currently a career-low 6.04 per 9 and he's been pretty fortunate with the long ball having allowed only 2 in 44.2 innings. This is also a tough spot for the Cards having played late last night on ESPN. Two weeks ago the Yankees capped off a sweep of the Red Sox on Sunday night and looked sluggish the following night in a 3-1 loss as Toronto. Same deal for Kansas City who off an extra inning win over Detroit got blitzed Read more



Tags: MLB St. Louis Cardinals New York Mets Andrew Lange




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals

05.04.2015     10:50 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Chicago (Wood) at St. Louis (Martinez) -140 O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Over


Off of a weekend sweep of the Pirates where all three games went extra innings, St. Louis enters tonight’s contest with a worn out bullpen. Their top five relievers have thrown three times in the past four days, closer Trevor Rosenthal has thrown three consecutive days, lefty specialists Randy Choate and Kevin Siegrist are on back-to-back days and they’ve lost setup man Jordan Walden to the 15-day DL with biceps inflammation. Reliable and un-fatigued help in the back third of tonight’s game is a major concern for St. Louis. That puts a lot on the shoulders of starting RH Carlos Martinez who has been a terrific six inning guy in three of his last four and the other saw him throw a strong seven. The hard throwing righty has posted a 1.80 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in his last four starts but his nine walks and four HR allowed leaves the door open for this Cubs lineup to score some runs. Opposite Martinez tonight is lefty Travis Wood who has had zero recent success keeping St. Louis off the scoreboard. In his last five starts against them, the Cards have averaged 4.8 Read more



Tags: MLB Chicago Cubs St. Louis Cardinals Rob Veno




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: National League Preview

04.13.2015     07:23 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Last week in this space, I wrote a team-by-team overview of the 15 American League squads.  This week, I’ll shift my focus to the National League, breaking down each team from a Las Vegas perspective.  Teams are listed in alphabetical order, by division.

A week ago, the Atlanta Braves were viewed as likely bottom feeders following a massive offseason rebuild that resulted in only six players from opening day last year returning on opening day in 2015; lined in the same range as teams like Arizona, Colorado and Minnesota.  One week later and the market view of Atlanta has changed at least somewhat thanks to a 5-1 record with the best run differential in the NL.  Julio Teheran, Shelby Miller and Alex Wood all hav top-of-the-rotation stuff, but it’s hard to picture this anemic lineup continuing to deliver steady run support.

The Miami Marlins hung around in the wild card race into the dog days of August last year before Giancarlo Stanton’s Read more



Tags: MLB Teddy Covers




Sportsmemo's MLB Betting Preview: St. Louis Cardinals

03.09.2015     06:40 AM     Printer Friendly
copy_mlb_preview_2015].jpg

Nothing much new in St. Louis as this veteran ballclub is in position to make a run at a fifth straight postseason appearance. But their core group is aging and recent history and current profile suggest there won’t be much betting value.

St. Louis Cardinals
2014 W-L:
90-72
2014 O/U: 73-82-7
2014 Profits: +2.0
2015 O/U Wins: 87.5
2015 NL Central Odds: +120
Projected Starting Rotation: Adam Wainwright, Michael Wacha, Lance Lynn, John Lackey, Carlos Martinez
Key Departures: Pat Neshek, Justin Masterson, Shelby Miller
Key Additions: Jason Heyward, Jordan Walden

Handicapper's Take: "Virtually all of last season's 90-win squad is back and they added Jason Heyward who is still only 25 years old. The starting rotation is scary good if it can stay healthy; particularly Adam Wainwright (33 years old) who is almost assuredly due for a decline after tossing well over 500 IP the last two seasons. Expectations are once again there Read more



Tags: MLB St. Louis Cardinals Andrew Lange




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Who has what it takes to win the Big Dance Part II

03.09.2015     06:12 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
In Part I of this article last week, I took a basic look at the profile of the past 16 NCAA champions.  From that profile, I was able to make a short list of potential champs in 2015, consisting of the following 12 teams:  Virginia, Duke, Notre Dame, Louisville, Kansas, Baylor, Villanova, Wisconsin, Maryland, Arizona, Utah and Kentucky.

However, since that article was written last week, one of those 12 teams has been bounced from consideration, with Baylor suffering their eighth loss of the season at Texas in overtime.  I don’t think the Bears were serious contenders to win the title, but now that they are above the seven loss cut-off line, we can eliminate Scott Drew’s squad from the discussion entirely.

The next step in the elimination process is to look at the team’s records away from home.

The NCAA championship is not won on a team’s home floor.  Even with a favorable location one weekend, a team is still going to have to win Read more



Tags: College Basketball Teddy Covers Las Vegas




Thursday NFL Betting Consensus: Sportsbooks just became huge Arizona Cardinals fans

12.11.2014     02:16 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Here are the top consensus bets for tonight's NFL matchup between the Arizona Cardinals and St. Louis Rams courtesy of Bookmaker. Pretty intriguing storyline with the Rams bet from -2.5 to -5.5/-6. Takes a lot of "love" for a single event Week 15 side to cross multiple key numbers. The betting public though not as giddy with only 58% of bets placed on the home favorite. Also unique is 58% of the action on the under which if you’ve followed these pages know is a very rare occurrence. Note that the percentages are based on the number of bets made not total handle.

SIDE
58.0% - St. Louis -5.5

TOTAL
57.9% - Under 40.5

MONEYLINE
75.1% - Arizona +205




Tags: NFL Arizona Cardinals St. Louis Rams




NFL Handicapping: Betting markets say St. Louis Rams are ready for primetime

12.09.2014     02:15 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
One of the main storylines for Week 15 has been St. Louis' meteoric rise in the betting markets. The Rams have without question played one of the league's toughest schedules and answered the bell with pointspread covers in five of their last six. But not only are they favored against the NFC's current top seed, Arizona, but zoomed right past -2.5 and -3 to -3.5 and now as high as -4. Note that the current pointspread is a big jump when you look at the prices of St. Louis' home games this season:

-6 vs. Oakland
+8 vs. Denver
+6.5 vs. Seattle
+3.5 vs. San Francisco
+1.5 vs. Dallas
-3 vs. Minnesota

In the end it's a classic case of great record but fraudulent vs. poor record but gritty/tested. Last week bettors couldn't get enough of fading the Cardinals as they opened a pick 'em vs. Kansas City but closed +3 at home. And in typical Arizona fashion, an ugly performance but +2 turnover margin resulted in a 17-14 win.




Tags: NFL St. Louis Rams Arizona Cardinals




MLB Playoff Handicapping: Orioles and Cardinals favored to advance to World Series

10.09.2014     07:26 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The MLB playoffs continue this weekend with the American and National League Championship Series getting underway. On Friday, Kansas City heads to Baltimore with the Orioles a -125 favorite. Neither team has lost a game in the playoffs thus far. For the series, Baltimore is a -140 favorite. The series format is 2-2-1-1-1. In the National League, San Francisco opens up at St. Louis on Saturday. Adam Wainwright is a -135 favorite over Madison Bumgarner. The Cardinals are priced the same for the series. In terms of odds to win the World Series, the Orioles are currently favored at around +200 followed by the Cardinals at +250.




Tags: MLB St. Louis Cardinals San Francisco Giants Baltimore Orioles Kansas City Royals




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Tampa Bay Rays at St. Louis Cardinals

07.22.2014     08:59 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Tampa Bay (Odorizzi) +140 at St. Louis (Wainwright) O/U 7
Recommendation: Tampa Bay


In general, I’m comfortable laying a bit more juice in the second half of the MLB season than I am in the first half, simply because there tend to be a good handful of pretty bad teams that stop showing up after the All-Star Break.  These are teams that are profitable to fade at every reasonable opportunity, even if you have to lay a price to do so.
 
For example, my clients and I bet against the Rockies last night, laying in the -140/-145 range with a road favorite.  Washington won 7-2 as the Rockies stumbled and bumbled their way to a sixth consecutive defeat.

At the same time, you’ll find some very attractively priced ‘live’ underdogs post-break, and I tend to widen my range towards bigger dogs like this one.  There are consistently solid opportunities for fading favorites that shouldn’t be laying big prices (think 2012 Red Sox Read more



Tags: MLB Tampa Rays St. Louis Cardinals Teddy Covers




MLB Gambling: Adjusted Season Over/Under Wins

07.17.2014     05:36 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
5Dimes has posted adjusted MLB Season Over/Under Wins. We stacked them up with LVH's original full season numbers as well as each team's current record. Coupled with 5Dimes' divisional odds you can get an idea of the betting markets’ second half projections. For example, St. Louis (1 game behind Milwaukee) is expected to win the National League Central by three games. The Cardinals are +125 to win the Central while the Brewers are +240. Similar situation in the NL East with Washington and Atlanta currently tied (Washington has played two fewer games). The Nationals are lined 88.5 adjusted and the Braves 86.5. The Nats are a -185 division favorite. In the AL East, Baltimore owns a four-game lead and is a -120 division favorite. The Orioles however have what many are calling a brutal second half schedule.

2014 MLB Adjusted Season Over/Under Wins
Team
LVH
5Dimes Adjusted
1st Half Record
Arizona
80
71.5un-160
40-56
Atlanta
87.5
86.5ov-185
52-43
Baltimore
78
85.5
52-42
Boston
87.5
76.5ov-145
43-52
Chicago Cubs
68.5
70.5
40-54
Chicago White Sox
77
76.5
45-51
Cincinnati
83.5
86.5un-160
51-44
Cleveland
80
80.5-160
47-47
Colorado
75.5
70.5
40-55
Detroit
89.5
90.5ov-210
53-38
Houston
63.5
66.5ov-160
40-56
Kansas City
79.5
82.5un-140
48-46
LA Angels
87.5
94.5ov-160
57-37
LA Dodgers
93.5
90.5ov-170
54-43
Miami
69.5
74.5un-160
44-50
Milwaukee
79.5
85.5un-130
53-43
Minnesota
71.5
74.5ov-160
44-50
NY Mets
73.5
77.5un-190
45-50
NY Yankees
85.5
81.5
47-47
Oakland
89
98.5un-160
59-36
Philadelphia
76
72.5
42-53
Pittsburgh
84.5
84
49-46
San Diego
78.5
72.5un-140
41-54
San Francisco
85.5
86.5
52-43
Seattle
80.5
85.5ov-130
51-44
St. Louis
91.5
88.5un-160
52-44
Tampa Bay
87.5
77.5un-140
44-53
Texas
86.5
68.5un-160
38-57
Toronto
79.5
83.5ov-145
49-47
Washington
87.5
88.5ov-160
51-42





Tags: MLB



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, Ian Cameron, Drew Martin, and Alex B. Smith. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Aug 28, 2015 05:42 AM.