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Sportsmemo's MLB Betting Preview: St. Louis Cardinals

03.09.2015     06:40 AM     Printer Friendly
copy_mlb_preview_2015].jpg

Nothing much new in St. Louis as this veteran ballclub is in position to make a run at a fifth straight postseason appearance. But their core group is aging and recent history and current profile suggest there won’t be much betting value.

St. Louis Cardinals
2014 W-L:
90-72
2014 O/U: 73-82-7
2014 Profits: +2.0
2015 O/U Wins: 87.5
2015 NL Central Odds: +120
Projected Starting Rotation: Adam Wainwright, Michael Wacha, Lance Lynn, John Lackey, Carlos Martinez
Key Departures: Pat Neshek, Justin Masterson, Shelby Miller
Key Additions: Jason Heyward, Jordan Walden

Handicapper's Take: "Virtually all of last season's 90-win squad is back and they added Jason Heyward who is still only 25 years old. The starting rotation is scary good if it can stay healthy; particularly Adam Wainwright (33 years old) who is almost assuredly due for a decline after tossing well over 500 IP the last two seasons. Expectations are once again there Read more



Tags: MLB St. Louis Cardinals Andrew Lange




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Who has what it takes to win the Big Dance Part II

03.09.2015     06:12 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
In Part I of this article last week, I took a basic look at the profile of the past 16 NCAA champions.  From that profile, I was able to make a short list of potential champs in 2015, consisting of the following 12 teams:  Virginia, Duke, Notre Dame, Louisville, Kansas, Baylor, Villanova, Wisconsin, Maryland, Arizona, Utah and Kentucky.

However, since that article was written last week, one of those 12 teams has been bounced from consideration, with Baylor suffering their eighth loss of the season at Texas in overtime.  I don’t think the Bears were serious contenders to win the title, but now that they are above the seven loss cut-off line, we can eliminate Scott Drew’s squad from the discussion entirely.

The next step in the elimination process is to look at the team’s records away from home.

The NCAA championship is not won on a team’s home floor.  Even with a favorable location one weekend, a team is still going to have to win Read more



Tags: College Basketball Teddy Covers Las Vegas




Thursday NFL Betting Consensus: Sportsbooks just became huge Arizona Cardinals fans

12.11.2014     02:16 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Here are the top consensus bets for tonight's NFL matchup between the Arizona Cardinals and St. Louis Rams courtesy of Bookmaker. Pretty intriguing storyline with the Rams bet from -2.5 to -5.5/-6. Takes a lot of "love" for a single event Week 15 side to cross multiple key numbers. The betting public though not as giddy with only 58% of bets placed on the home favorite. Also unique is 58% of the action on the under which if you’ve followed these pages know is a very rare occurrence. Note that the percentages are based on the number of bets made not total handle.

SIDE
58.0% - St. Louis -5.5

TOTAL
57.9% - Under 40.5

MONEYLINE
75.1% - Arizona +205




Tags: NFL Arizona Cardinals St. Louis Rams




NFL Handicapping: Betting markets say St. Louis Rams are ready for primetime

12.09.2014     02:15 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
One of the main storylines for Week 15 has been St. Louis' meteoric rise in the betting markets. The Rams have without question played one of the league's toughest schedules and answered the bell with pointspread covers in five of their last six. But not only are they favored against the NFC's current top seed, Arizona, but zoomed right past -2.5 and -3 to -3.5 and now as high as -4. Note that the current pointspread is a big jump when you look at the prices of St. Louis' home games this season:

-6 vs. Oakland
+8 vs. Denver
+6.5 vs. Seattle
+3.5 vs. San Francisco
+1.5 vs. Dallas
-3 vs. Minnesota

In the end it's a classic case of great record but fraudulent vs. poor record but gritty/tested. Last week bettors couldn't get enough of fading the Cardinals as they opened a pick 'em vs. Kansas City but closed +3 at home. And in typical Arizona fashion, an ugly performance but +2 turnover margin resulted in a 17-14 win.




Tags: NFL St. Louis Rams Arizona Cardinals




MLB Playoff Handicapping: Orioles and Cardinals favored to advance to World Series

10.09.2014     07:26 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The MLB playoffs continue this weekend with the American and National League Championship Series getting underway. On Friday, Kansas City heads to Baltimore with the Orioles a -125 favorite. Neither team has lost a game in the playoffs thus far. For the series, Baltimore is a -140 favorite. The series format is 2-2-1-1-1. In the National League, San Francisco opens up at St. Louis on Saturday. Adam Wainwright is a -135 favorite over Madison Bumgarner. The Cardinals are priced the same for the series. In terms of odds to win the World Series, the Orioles are currently favored at around +200 followed by the Cardinals at +250.




Tags: MLB St. Louis Cardinals San Francisco Giants Baltimore Orioles Kansas City Royals




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Tampa Bay Rays at St. Louis Cardinals

07.22.2014     08:59 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Tampa Bay (Odorizzi) +140 at St. Louis (Wainwright) O/U 7
Recommendation: Tampa Bay


In general, I’m comfortable laying a bit more juice in the second half of the MLB season than I am in the first half, simply because there tend to be a good handful of pretty bad teams that stop showing up after the All-Star Break.  These are teams that are profitable to fade at every reasonable opportunity, even if you have to lay a price to do so.
 
For example, my clients and I bet against the Rockies last night, laying in the -140/-145 range with a road favorite.  Washington won 7-2 as the Rockies stumbled and bumbled their way to a sixth consecutive defeat.

At the same time, you’ll find some very attractively priced ‘live’ underdogs post-break, and I tend to widen my range towards bigger dogs like this one.  There are consistently solid opportunities for fading favorites that shouldn’t be laying big prices (think 2012 Red Sox Read more



Tags: MLB Tampa Rays St. Louis Cardinals Teddy Covers




MLB Gambling: Adjusted Season Over/Under Wins

07.17.2014     05:36 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
5Dimes has posted adjusted MLB Season Over/Under Wins. We stacked them up with LVH's original full season numbers as well as each team's current record. Coupled with 5Dimes' divisional odds you can get an idea of the betting markets’ second half projections. For example, St. Louis (1 game behind Milwaukee) is expected to win the National League Central by three games. The Cardinals are +125 to win the Central while the Brewers are +240. Similar situation in the NL East with Washington and Atlanta currently tied (Washington has played two fewer games). The Nationals are lined 88.5 adjusted and the Braves 86.5. The Nats are a -185 division favorite. In the AL East, Baltimore owns a four-game lead and is a -120 division favorite. The Orioles however have what many are calling a brutal second half schedule.

2014 MLB Adjusted Season Over/Under Wins
Team
LVH
5Dimes Adjusted
1st Half Record
Arizona
80
71.5un-160
40-56
Atlanta
87.5
86.5ov-185
52-43
Baltimore
78
85.5
52-42
Boston
87.5
76.5ov-145
43-52
Chicago Cubs
68.5
70.5
40-54
Chicago White Sox
77
76.5
45-51
Cincinnati
83.5
86.5un-160
51-44
Cleveland
80
80.5-160
47-47
Colorado
75.5
70.5
40-55
Detroit
89.5
90.5ov-210
53-38
Houston
63.5
66.5ov-160
40-56
Kansas City
79.5
82.5un-140
48-46
LA Angels
87.5
94.5ov-160
57-37
LA Dodgers
93.5
90.5ov-170
54-43
Miami
69.5
74.5un-160
44-50
Milwaukee
79.5
85.5un-130
53-43
Minnesota
71.5
74.5ov-160
44-50
NY Mets
73.5
77.5un-190
45-50
NY Yankees
85.5
81.5
47-47
Oakland
89
98.5un-160
59-36
Philadelphia
76
72.5
42-53
Pittsburgh
84.5
84
49-46
San Diego
78.5
72.5un-140
41-54
San Francisco
85.5
86.5
52-43
Seattle
80.5
85.5ov-130
51-44
St. Louis
91.5
88.5un-160
52-44
Tampa Bay
87.5
77.5un-140
44-53
Texas
86.5
68.5un-160
38-57
Toronto
79.5
83.5ov-145
49-47
Washington
87.5
88.5ov-160
51-42





Tags: MLB




NFL Gambling: Using Strength of Schedule to Handicap Season Over/Under Wins Part I

07.14.2014     01:59 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
When looking at the entirety of the NFL futures market, Super Bowl odds and odds to win divisions or conferences only give bettors one choice – betting ON a particular team.  Then that team has to beat out all of their competition to win the division/conference/Super Bowl for you to cash, offering the potential for big payday longshot returns, but cashing a low percentage of the wagers that are made.

NFL Season Win totals, on the other hand, offer bettors the opportunity to bet AGAINST teams in relatively low juice situations.  And with win totals, even when betting Overs, the team you are betting on doesn’t have to win anything big. 

For example, the Kansa City Chiefs didn’t win their division last year; unable to get past mighty Denver.  They didn’t win the AFC or the Super Bowl.  But they cashed every Over ticket that was bet on their season wins by the time their bye week rolled around.  KC’s 11-5 campaign offered a positive return-on-investment for a squad lined at 7 or 7.5 wins prior to the season.

In my opinion, NFL win totals rank among the most profitable set of wagers currently Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




MLB Handicapper Free Play: St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers

07.13.2014     08:03 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
St. Louis (Martinez) at Milwaukee (Peralta) -115 O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Under


Two “premium stuff” arms take the hill this afternoon in Milwaukee.  St. Louis’ Carlos Martinez averages 98 mph with is fastball, while also offering a sinker, change-up and slurve.  He’s not a household name – yet – but owns some of the nastiest stuff around for a starting pitcher in the National League.  His repertoire is especially lethal on the right-handed bat, which is a perfect fit against the Brewers.  In his early career, Martinez owns a huge split with right-handers slugging just .276 against him, while left-handers see him much better at .469.  Meanwhile, Wily Peralta will take the bump for the Brew Crew.  Peralta deals off a sinker that averages 97 mph with a slider and still-developing change-up.  When Peralta’s right the sinker is all he needs, while garnering groundball after groundball.  Importantly, Peralta Read more



Tags: MLB St. Louis Cardinals Milwaukee Brewers Erin Rynning




MLB Handicapping: Molina's injury comes at bad time for Cardinals

07.10.2014     03:26 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Looks like St. Louis will be without All-Star catcher Yadier Molina (thumb) for 8-12 weeks. Molina obviously impacts the game a number of ways. For starters he’s an underrated commodity offensively (.287/.341/.751) – and at times has been St. Louis’ best bat. Secondly, and most obvious, is the countless ways he helps the team defensively. He all but completely shuts down opposing teams’ run games (49% caught stealing, league average 26%). And just as important is the way he handles the pitching staff. Tony Cruz is a more than adequate backup, but keep in mind the Cardinals are down three starters with Jamie Garcia, Michael Wacha, and Joe Kelly on the shelf. And Tyler Lyons, Marco Gonzales, Miller, and Martinez are all young and/or have had recent struggles. Molina is just the kind of catcher to help those guys power through tough situations. This year's numbers with Cruz behind the plate aren't that far removed from that of Molina – and Cruz has caught Adam Wainwright only once. But last year, with a larger sample size, the team's ERA with Read more



Tags: MLB St. Louis Cardinals



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, Ian Cameron, and Drew Martin. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Jul 29, 2015 02:45 AM.