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MLB Gambling: Adjusted Season Over/Under Wins

07.17.2014     05:36 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
5Dimes has posted adjusted MLB Season Over/Under Wins. We stacked them up with LVH's original full season numbers as well as each team's current record. Coupled with 5Dimes' divisional odds you can get an idea of the betting markets’ second half projections. For example, St. Louis (1 game behind Milwaukee) is expected to win the National League Central by three games. The Cardinals are +125 to win the Central while the Brewers are +240. Similar situation in the NL East with Washington and Atlanta currently tied (Washington has played two fewer games). The Nationals are lined 88.5 adjusted and the Braves 86.5. The Nats are a -185 division favorite. In the AL East, Baltimore owns a four-game lead and is a -120 division favorite. The Orioles however have what many are calling a brutal second half schedule.

2014 MLB Adjusted Season Over/Under Wins
Team
LVH
5Dimes Adjusted
1st Half Record
Arizona
80
71.5un-160
40-56
Atlanta
87.5
86.5ov-185
52-43
Baltimore
78
85.5
52-42
Boston
87.5
76.5ov-145
43-52
Chicago Cubs
68.5
70.5
40-54
Chicago White Sox
77
76.5
45-51
Cincinnati
83.5
86.5un-160
51-44
Cleveland
80
80.5-160
47-47
Colorado
75.5
70.5
40-55
Detroit
89.5
90.5ov-210
53-38
Houston
63.5
66.5ov-160
40-56
Kansas City
79.5
82.5un-140
48-46
LA Angels
87.5
94.5ov-160
57-37
LA Dodgers
93.5
90.5ov-170
54-43
Miami
69.5
74.5un-160
44-50
Milwaukee
79.5
85.5un-130
53-43
Minnesota
71.5
74.5ov-160
44-50
NY Mets
73.5
77.5un-190
45-50
NY Yankees
85.5
81.5
47-47
Oakland
89
98.5un-160
59-36
Philadelphia
76
72.5
42-53
Pittsburgh
84.5
84
49-46
San Diego
78.5
72.5un-140
41-54
San Francisco
85.5
86.5
52-43
Seattle
80.5
85.5ov-130
51-44
St. Louis
91.5
88.5un-160
52-44
Tampa Bay
87.5
77.5un-140
44-53
Texas
86.5
68.5un-160
38-57
Toronto
79.5
83.5ov-145
49-47
Washington
87.5
88.5ov-160
51-42





Tags: MLB




NFL Gambling: Using Strength of Schedule to Handicap Season Over/Under Wins Part I

07.14.2014     01:59 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
When looking at the entirety of the NFL futures market, Super Bowl odds and odds to win divisions or conferences only give bettors one choice – betting ON a particular team.  Then that team has to beat out all of their competition to win the division/conference/Super Bowl for you to cash, offering the potential for big payday longshot returns, but cashing a low percentage of the wagers that are made.

NFL Season Win totals, on the other hand, offer bettors the opportunity to bet AGAINST teams in relatively low juice situations.  And with win totals, even when betting Overs, the team you are betting on doesn’t have to win anything big. 

For example, the Kansa City Chiefs didn’t win their division last year; unable to get past mighty Denver.  They didn’t win the AFC or the Super Bowl.  But they cashed every Over ticket that was bet on their season wins by the time their bye week rolled around.  KC’s 11-5 campaign offered a positive return-on-investment for a squad lined at 7 or 7.5 wins prior to the season.

In my opinion, NFL win totals rank among the most profitable set of wagers currently Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




MLB Handicapper Free Play: St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers

07.13.2014     08:03 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
St. Louis (Martinez) at Milwaukee (Peralta) -115 O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Under


Two “premium stuff” arms take the hill this afternoon in Milwaukee.  St. Louis’ Carlos Martinez averages 98 mph with is fastball, while also offering a sinker, change-up and slurve.  He’s not a household name – yet – but owns some of the nastiest stuff around for a starting pitcher in the National League.  His repertoire is especially lethal on the right-handed bat, which is a perfect fit against the Brewers.  In his early career, Martinez owns a huge split with right-handers slugging just .276 against him, while left-handers see him much better at .469.  Meanwhile, Wily Peralta will take the bump for the Brew Crew.  Peralta deals off a sinker that averages 97 mph with a slider and still-developing change-up.  When Peralta’s right the sinker is all he needs, while garnering groundball after groundball.  Importantly, Peralta Read more



Tags: MLB St. Louis Cardinals Milwaukee Brewers Erin Rynning




MLB Handicapping: Molina's injury comes at bad time for Cardinals

07.10.2014     03:26 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Looks like St. Louis will be without All-Star catcher Yadier Molina (thumb) for 8-12 weeks. Molina obviously impacts the game a number of ways. For starters he’s an underrated commodity offensively (.287/.341/.751) – and at times has been St. Louis’ best bat. Secondly, and most obvious, is the countless ways he helps the team defensively. He all but completely shuts down opposing teams’ run games (49% caught stealing, league average 26%). And just as important is the way he handles the pitching staff. Tony Cruz is a more than adequate backup, but keep in mind the Cardinals are down three starters with Jamie Garcia, Michael Wacha, and Joe Kelly on the shelf. And Tyler Lyons, Marco Gonzales, Miller, and Martinez are all young and/or have had recent struggles. Molina is just the kind of catcher to help those guys power through tough situations. This year's numbers with Cruz behind the plate aren't that far removed from that of Molina – and Cruz has caught Adam Wainwright only once. But last year, with a larger sample size, the team's ERA with Read more



Tags: MLB St. Louis Cardinals




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals

07.10.2014     10:53 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Pittsburgh (Volquez) at St. Louis (Miller) O/U 8
Recommendation: Over


St. Louis has given Pittsburgh starter Edinson Volquez fits over the years with Volquez owning a 5.58 ERA in 13 career outings. Volquez has allowed two runs over his last 21 innings of work which is impressive but not so much when you consider he was facing the Phillies, Mets and Rays. Volquez was hammered in his previous visit to Busch Stadium this season allowing 6 runs on 7 hits in 5.2 innings. The Cardinals have finally found some traction offensively scoring 4+ runs in four of their last five games and should match up well here. Shelby Miller has certainly come back down to earth having allowed 16 runs on 29 hits in 19.1 innings over his last four starts and he's walked as many batters as he's struck out. Pittsburgh will never be known as an explosive offense but they have had some previous success against Miller particularly last year and this will be their third time facing him this season so I expect the Read more



Tags: MLB Pittsburgh Pirates St. Louis Cardinals Ian Cameron




MLB Handicapping: Worley prospering after mechanical adjustments

07.08.2014     08:42 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Good stuff on Pittsburgh starter Vance Worley who after struggling with Minnesota and being sent down to Triple-A noticed a mechanical flaw and has bounced back strong (4 starts, 2.28 ERA). He's a small road underdog at St. Louis this evening.


"When I went over to the Twins, that was something they never noticed," Worley said. "I was flying open, and then you can see everything out of my hand. I changed the mechanics; the next thing I know, I'm in Triple A."

"That's all it was," Worley said of the mechanical fix. "I still have all the turn [in my delivery]. Everything's there. It was just this vs. that. I'm just glad that they believed in me and knew who I was and what I was capable of."







Tags: MLB Pittsburgh Pirates St. Louis Cardinals




MLB Gambling Alert: Kansas City's Ventura back after arm discomfort

06.05.2014     11:23 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
St. Louis (Wacha) -110 at Kansas City (Ventura) O/U 7.5

Kansas City's Yordano Ventura will make his first start since being removed from a May 26 start due to arm discomfort and diminished velocity. Ventura reportedly had a very good bullpen session with no pain.


“He threw really, really well,” Chen said, grinning inside the visitors clubhouse at Rogers Centre before a 4-0 loss to the Toronto Blue Jays. “And that’s bad news for the Cardinals.”






Tags: MLB Kansas City Royals St. Louis Cardinals




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Preseason NFC Betting News and Notes

06.02.2014     10:40 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Last week, I wrote that “the NFL offseason, at least for sports bettors, is essentially over.  Numbers are up, and they’re moving!”

“My first step in assessing the upcoming NFL season begins with a thorough look back at last year.  Every team’s power rating is set, in large part, based on where they finished the previous campaign.  Obviously, adjustments are made for injuries, luck, offseason improvements or declines, coaching changes and the like, but those base power rating numbers factor in what happened in 2013 very heavily.”

Last week, I focused on the 16 teams from the AFC.  In this week’s Vegas Wiseguy Report, I’ll pass along a tidbit or two from each of the 16 NFC teams in regards to last year.  My focus is on things that are NOT likely to repeat the same way in 2014.  And this week, I’ll do my absolute best to avoid egregious errors like my ‘San Diego didn’t make the 2013 playoffs’ Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




MLB Handicapping: Cincinnati's Bailey struggles with fastball, lefties

05.23.2014     07:06 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
St. Louis (Miller) at Cincinnati (Bailey) -110 O/U 7.5

Cincinnati's Homer Bailey has had his struggles this year with a 5.44 ERA and 1.578 WHIP in nine starts. He's been a bit unlucky (.348 BABIP, 18.4% HR/FB) and pitched better than his raw numbers (3.63 xFIP) but one of the things holding Bailey back is lefties. Like most right-handers, lefties have hit Bailey better than righties throughout his career but the discrepancy isn't outrageous (.426 SLG vs. L, .403 SLG vs. R). This year’s splits however are eye-popping. Lefties are hitting .373 BA, .453 OBP, .602 SLG, and 1.055 vs. Bailey. It looks as if a lot of the damage is coming via the fastball. Against Bailey's four- and two-seam fastballs, hitters are hitting a robust .362 vs. .230 last season. Again, some of it is bad luck and the sample size isn't very big but it is still a split worth monitoring moving Read more



Tags: MLB Cincinnati Reds St. Louis Cardinals




MLB Handicapping: St. Louis' Shelby Miller still searching for better command

05.17.2014     06:55 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Article on St. Louis starting pitcher Shelby Miller, who despite owning “plus stuff”, has had command issues for much of the season with 27 walks in 44.2 innings. And for his career, he's been a bit lucky that the lack of command hasn't had a significant impact on his results (thus far). Following his last outing against Pittsburgh (5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 BBs) Miller went back and watched film to find any mechanical flaws. He's slated to start this afternoon against Atlanta.


"Sometimes when you play catch, you fall out of routine a little bit or don't take it as seriously as you need to," Miller said. "The big thing for me is, even when it's loosening up and playing catch, it's making sure to hit a spot and work on things even between starts every single day. I think maybe that's what I have been slacking at."

"A lot of that is just

Read more



Tags: MLB St. Louis Cardinals



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, Ian Cameron, and Drew Martin. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   May 29, 2015 09:12 AM.