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College Football Handicapping: Conference championship early line moves
11.26.2012 08:03 AM
Printer Friendly
Taking a quick look at the early lines moves for this weekend's college football conference championships.
Big East - Louisville at Rutgers (Thursday)
After both teams lost last weekend, Thursday's matchups becomes the de facto title game. Rutgers opened -2.5 but was quickly bet up to -3 across the board.
MAC - Northern Illinois vs. Kent State (Friday at Detroit)
No regular season meeting as both teams finished unblemished in league play. Combined the two squads were 20-4 against the spread. Interesting to see if the market pushes this game off the dead number of 5. CRIS opened NIU -5 but a small move towards Kent bumped it down to -4.5. The rest of the market has held firm at -5.
PAC-12 - UCLA at Stanford (Friday)
Both teams met last week as Stanford jumped out to an early lead and cruised to a 35-17 victory. Note that the Bruins had already wrapped up the PAC-12 South prior to the contest – and are probably happy to be facing the Cardinal as oppose to Oregon. Stanford appears to be much improved since the move to quarterback Kevin Hogan who in four games has connected on 73% of
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Tags:
College Football
SEC
PAC-12
Sun Belt
C-USA
Big Ten
SEC
Big East
MAC
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Sportsbook thinks there is little chance Lee Corso is picking Stanford to beat Oregon
11.16.2012 06:19 AM
Printer Friendly
Step right up and take your chances with this weekend's ESPN College GameDay prop bet courtesy of 5Dimes. Let's see, in one corner we have Lee Corso picking Oregon to win at -6000, and in the other, Corso taking 20.5-point underdog Stanford at +2000. We stumbled upon a
website
dedicated to Corso's track record as prognosticator. As of last week, he's 151-69, 68.6% lifetime.
Speaking of the Ducks, they're +120 to win the BCS National Championship. Kansas State is +230 followed by Notre Dame +500 and Alabama +600.
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College Football Gambling Preview: Stanford Cardinal at Oregon Ducks
11.13.2012 09:34 AM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
Stanford
at
Oregon
Andrew Lange’s Recommendation:
Oregon
Saturday, 5 pm PT – ABC
CRIS Opener:
Oregon -21.5 O/U 65
CRIS Current:
Oregon -20.5 O/U 64.5
Rob Veno’s Power Rating:
Oregon -22
A few weeks back I marked down in my notes to play against Stanford when they face up-tempo offenses. I did this on the heels of their overtime win over Arizona. In that game, the Cardinal were absolutely gashed defensively as the Wildcats rolled up 617 yards. Stanford was completely gassed in the second half as the Wildcats did whatever they wanted offensively. Since that time, Stanford has faced nothing but sub-par and/or pro-style offenses – the exact profile that their defense has historically thrived against.
Stanford's Last Five Opponents - National Rank, Total Offense
Oregon State - 58th, 408.8 ypg
Colorado - 114th, 306.8 ypg
Washington
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College Football Handicapping: Stanford will start QB Hogan vs. Oregon State
11.07.2012 07:03 AM
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Oregon State
at
Stanford
-4.5 O/U 45
Stanford announced redshirt freshman quarterback
Kevin Hogan will start
against Oregon State on Saturday. Hogan relieves Josh Nunes in the first quarter last week and finished with 184 yards and two touchdowns. Hogan has been praised for his ability to run the football.
"Kevin gives us that added dimension as a runner," Shaw said. "It's rare to be able to run and throw as well as be able to handle all the things we need him to handle."
According to Shaw, Hogan has a grasp of about 80 percent of the playbook. The coach didn't think that would be a drawback, however, "because what he gives us physically can help offset that."
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College Football Betting: Stanford looks to back-up QB for offensive spark
10.24.2012 07:19 AM
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Washington State
at
Stanford
-24.5 O/U 51
With quarterback Josh Nunes' continued struggles, Stanford has found ways to get
back-up Kevin Hogan
on the field. Hogan's skill set is more suited for the spread-option. He threw a touchdown in last week's win over California and may see more time this weekend with the Cardinal a sizable favorite over Washington State.
"It's kind of like having, excuse me for saying it, but like a Tim Tebow on our team," fullback Ryan Hewitt said. "He relishes the role. He likes it."
"This is not a wildcat. This is not a running back that's just a running back. He's an athletic guy that can pass," Shaw said. "Those are things that we can take advantage of as an offense."
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Handicapper Alf Musketa's College Football Week 7 Early Line Moves Report
10.09.2012 07:51 AM
Alf Musketa
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Submitted by Alf Musketa
Kent at Army
Army opened -1.5, Kent now -2
Sure, with much parody in all sports these days we see more and more pointspreads fall in the 1-2 range, but this move is not a market play but a handicapper’s adaptation of what the line should be and which team they obviously favor. Army is giving up 6.1 yards per carry and Kent has a couple of solid running backs in Trayion Durham and Dri Archer. From a power ratings perspective I have Army at -3.5 and I disagree with the move, but do not necessarily want Army here. The Black Knights cannot stop anyone and I prefer not to invest in games where little or no defense is played.
Louisville at Pittsburgh
Louisville opened -1.5 now -3.5
This is a significant move on the Cardinals and why not, they are 5-0, and Pitt has looked like the Keystone Cops at times this season. The spot favors Louisville coming off a bye with extra time to prepare while Pitt could only manage 13 points against a soft Syracuse defense. I agree with the move.
Florida at Vanderbilt
Florida opened -9 now -7.5
There is not much difference between a
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College Football Gambling: Arizona running on fumes after five straight games
10.05.2012 08:06 AM
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Arizona
at
Stanford
-9 O/U 54
Arizona head coach Rich Rodriquez talks about the difficulty of playing
five games in five weeks
with little depth on defense. The Wildcats' stop unit has been on the field for 417 plays this season.
"As you can imagine, playing five straight games and playing a lot of plays, our guys are a little beat up," Arizona coach Rich Rodriguez said.
"We aren't a very deep team, We aren't very experienced in many positions," Rodriguez said. "Any injury certainly hurts just like a lot of teams are experiencing as well. We are barreling through and hopefully it will be a good week for the guys. If it's not and we have guys who can't play, we will put the next guy in and move on."
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College Football Betting Trends: Mid-week underdogs 6-1 against the spread
09.27.2012 06:19 AM
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Stanford
-6.5 at
Washington
O/U 51
Underdogs have been the play thus far with these college football mid-week contests. In games played Wednesday-Friday, underdogs are 6-1 ATS including three outright victories. Like the NFL, totals have trended UNDER at 2-5 O/U.
2012 Mid-Week College Football Betting Results Weeks 1-4
Away Team
Home Team
Open
Close
Final
ATS
O/U Close
Kent State
Buffalo
BUF -2.5
BUF -3
KSU 23, BUF 7
Underdog
Under 50
BYU
Boise State
BSU -6.5
BSU -5.5
BSU 7, BYU 6
Underdog
Under 49.5
Baylor
UL-Monroe
BAY -8
BAY -8
BAY 47, ULM 42
Underdog
Over 70
Rutgers
South Florida
USF -9.5
USF -8
RUT 23, USF 13
Underdog
Under 44.5
Washington State
UNLV
WSU -10.5
WSU -9.5
WSU 35, UNLV 27
Underdog
Over 55.5
Pittsburgh
Cincinnati
CIN -2.5
CIN -4.5
CIN 34, PIT 10
Favorite
Under 51
Utah
Utah State
UTAH -7
UTAH -7
USU 27, UT 20 OT
Underdog
Under 50.5
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College Football Handicapping: Are betting consensus websites helpful?
09.26.2012 01:16 PM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Stanford
-6.5 at
Washington
O/U 48
As a bettor, I'm not really sure what to make of betting consensus websites. For starters, everyone has a different number. Thursday's Stanford-Washington game ranges from 56% to 66% on the Cardinal based on the three opinions I found – I’m sure there are many more. Where they are getting these numbers and from whom, I have no idea. Who do they consider to be the "public?" Is it guys who don't bet? Medium-sized players? Credit players at Pinnacle who bet four figures a game? I mean, it is always nice to hear that 65% of the "public" is on a single-event NFL underdog but beyond that profile, I don't think I've ever let a consensus percentage sway my opinion of a game. That being said, I did happen to stumble upon a pretty telling quote from SB Nation's
Stanford-Washington preview
.
"The 7-point spread was bet down to -6.5 at most shops we track, but we are still seeing near two-thirds of the betting action on Stanford, according to the consensus data we gather from sportsbooks," said Jack Randall of OddsShark.com.
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College Football Betting Preview: Alabama Crimson Tide at Arkansas Razorbacks
09.14.2012 07:46 AM
Alatex Sports
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Submitted by Alatex Sports
Alabama
at
Arkansas
Brent Crow's Recommendation:
Arkansas
Saturday, 12:30 pm PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
Alabama -15.5 O/U 52
CRIS Current:
Alabama -20 O/U 54
Rob Veno's Power Rating:
Alabama -13.5
A week ago Alabama would have been a seven-point favorite in this game, but after Arkansas imploded in last week’s 34-31 loss to UL-Monroe, the Crimson Tide are now nearly three touchdown road chalk in an SEC game. Arkansas quarterback Tyler Wilson got hurt last week and is questionable for this week’s game, but this pointspread may be an overadjustment. Wilson has practiced this week, but head coach John L. Smith said that he has not been cleared to play and the decision is not in his hands. Wilson will play if he is cleared by team doctors, and with him practicing this week, I expect to see him on the field.
The bigger concern for Arkansas may be its defense. The Hogs have allowed 50
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