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September

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Sports Betting Update: Monmouth Park hopes to take NFL bets this Sunday

09.09.2014     09:37 AM     Printer Friendly
UPDATE

New Jersey is expected to start offering sports betting as soon as this weekend. If not then within the next 30 days. Monmouth Park has reportedly been in talks with sportsbook heavyweight William Hill.


“I got calls from people who wanted to come to the track last night to bet,” he said.

He added that if the book is open Sunday – the main day for heavily bet NFL football games – it would probably be a “very basic operation.”







New Jersey mans up and announces sports betting now legal

09.08.2014     12:20 PM     Read more


Tags: NFL




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Under- and over-reacting to early season football results

09.08.2014     07:50 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
I probably heard the same expression 20 times last week: ‘Don’t overreact to Week 1 results.’   It’s one of those handicapping mantras that we hear every year right around this time – the very beginning of football season. 

In basketball or baseball there’s no week off between the first two games and the early season betting markets don’t react intensely off a single poor performance.  But for football – both NFL and college – the prevailing conventional wisdom is that Week 1 results are a thing to take with a grain of salt.

The concept certainly makes sense.  Coaches – especially college football coaches – will tell you that they expect their biggest improvement between Week 1 and Week 2.  Without the benefit of preseason games or even scrimmages against opposing squads, teams often ‘work out the kinks’ and ‘get up to game speed’ in their initial contest.  The team you expected to see this year (at least for bettors who do some homework and have opinions coming into the campaign) might not be the team you saw in Week 1, but there’s Read more


Tags: NFL College Football Teddy Covers




College Football Gambling Consensus: Bettors flock toward Auburn and South Alabama for Saturday

09.06.2014     06:06 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Here are the top five consensus bets (sides and totals) for Saturday's college football games courtesy of Bookmaker. Note that the percentages are based on the number of bets made not total handle.

SIDES
92.5% - AUBURN -33 vs. San Jose State
92.1% - SOUTH ALABAMA -3 at Kent State
90.7% - KENTUCKY -13 vs. Ohio
88.3% - UTAH -13.5 vs. Fresno State
88.2% - MARYLAND -13 at South Florida

TOTALS
96.2% - OVER 66 San Jose State at Auburn
95.2% - OVER 66 Texas Tech at UTEP
94.3% - UNDER 52.5 Idaho at UL-Monroe
93.4% - OVER 56.5 Michigan at Notre Dame
92.9% - OVER 66 New Mexico State at Georgia State



Tags: College Football Auburn Tigers SEC South Alabama Jaguars Sun Belt




NFL Handicapping: League gets the Elo Ratings treatment

09.05.2014     11:04 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Stat nerds will love this. FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver has created Elo Ratings for the NFL. Here's a link to Silver discussing the science behind it and another link to the ratings. His "spread" on last night's Packers-Seattle game was -10. One of the biggest discrepancies for Sunday's games is Detroit -1.5 vs. New York. The market currently has the Lions priced as a 6-point home favorite.


Do you also account for margin of victory?

Affirmative. I took some inspiration from the soccer ratings, which account for goal differential in addition to the game result. But this is one of the more complicated parts.

For the NFL, I start by adding one point to team’s margin of victory and then take its natural logarithm. Then I multiply that result by the K value. That means I’m more moved by big wins than narrow ones, although there are diminishing returns. I’m not so impressed by the fifth touchdown when a team is ahead 28-0.

Read more


Tags: NFL




College Football Betting Preview: Arkansas State Red Wolves at Tennessee Volunteers

09.05.2014     07:29 AM     Paul Stone     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Paul Stone

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Arkansas State at Tennessee
Saturday, 9 am PT - SEC
CRIS Opener:
Tennessee -17.5 O/U 51
CRIS Current: Tennessee -17 O/U 57.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Tennessee -17.5
Paul Stone's Recommendation: Tennessee

A Sun Belt versus SEC pairing at Neyland Stadium,one of college football's top venues, pits teams off lopsided season-opening wins. Butch Jones' Tennessee Volunteers mowed over Utah State, 38-7, Sunday, while first-year head coach Blake Anderson and the Arkansas State Red Wolves disposed of FCS opponent Montana State by a 37-10 margin one day earlier.

Attempting to reconstruct a program short on SEC caliber talent following Derek Dooley's brief tenure, Jones, in his second season, has displayed the ability to recruit at a high level and just might bring the Volunteers back near the glory days of the past if given enough time. In its opener against Utah State, Tennessee played a Read more


Tags: College Football Arkansas State Red Wolves Sun Belt Tennessee Volunteers SEC Paul Stone




NFL Gambling Update: Carolina's Newton upgraded to probable

09.05.2014     07:20 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Carolina at Tampa Bay -2.5 O/U 39

According to reports, Carolina's Cam Newton (rib) is "on pace" to start Week 1's opener at Tampa Bay. They Panthers won't make it official, however, until Sunday. Carolina opened as a 2-point favorite but since Newton's injury because public, we've seen a steady flow of Tampa Bay money. Offshore sportsbooks 5Dimes and Jazz currently have the Bucs -3 (ev).


"How I'm feeling right now, I'm on pace to be ready to go on Sunday.''

Asked what could disrupt that, Newton jokingly said, "Maybe from walking home, somebody wants to [mug] me or something like that. Getting hit by a car. Running away from a tiger. There's a lot of things that could disrupt that pace.''

"It's not just about Game 1, also,'' Rivera said. "Let's be realistic. This is not a sprint, Read more



Tags: NFL Carolina Panthers Tampa Bay Buccaneers




College Football Betting Preview: South Alabama Jaguars at Kent State Golden Flashes

09.04.2014     02:10 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
South Alabama at Kent State
Saturday, 11 am PT - ESPN3
CRIS Opener:
Kent State pk O/U 52.5
CRIS Current: South Alabama -3 O/U 50.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: South Alabama -1.5
Drew Martin's Recommendation: South Alabama

South Alabama opens its season on the road against Kent State in Dix Stadium. This will be the second game of the season for the Golden Flashes after being on the wrong side of the 17-14 home contest vs. Ohio. Kent’s offense managed only 294 yards (31 yards rushing) of offense and could not take advantage of four Bobcat turnovers. This shouldn’t come as a surprise after KSU lost its two best offensive linemen and third round draft pick running back Dri Archer. Additionally, the Golden Flashes were without their most touted offensive weapon, 250 pound running back Trayion Durham. He is currently listed as questionable; I don’t believe they would hold him Read more


Tags: College Football South Alabama Jaguars Sun Belt Kent State Golden Flashes MAC Drew Martin




College Football Betting Preview: Abilene Christian Wildcats at Georgia State Panthers

08.27.2014     06:36 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Drew Martin

Abilene Christian at Georgia State
Wednesday, 5 pm PT - ESPNU
CRIS Opener:
Georgia State -5 O/U 63
CRIS Current: Georgia State -4 O/U 60.5
Drew’s Recommendation: Under

If you were to glance at Abilene Christian’s offensive production last year, you would undoubtedly come away impressed. But when you start to dig a little deeper however, you find a couple key stats that stand out. Not accounting for the likes of Concordia-Selma, Houston Baptist, and the Incarnate Word, final scores (84-6, 69-12, 40-6) respectfully, in five of six competitive games last year the Wildcats averaged 2.436 plays per minute of possession. This doesn’t exactly scream that “tempo” is a top priority. With head coach Ken Collums and offensive coordinator Nathan Young returning, I see no reason for this tendency to change. Moreover, they will be breaking in a new quarterback behind virtually an entirely new offensive line. This is not a good combo when trying to replace 4,500 yards and 48 touchdowns of offensive production.

Georgia Read more


Tags: College Football Abilene Christian Wildcats Georgia State Panthers Sun Belt Drew Martin




College Football Handicapping: Arizona State's offense ready to peak in third year under Graham

08.26.2014     07:57 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Good article about Arizona State's pace of play. Last year the Sun Devils ran an offensive play every 23 seconds which ranked 25th nationally. Head coach Todd Graham said he would like to see one run every 15 seconds which would be about five seconds faster than Oregon and Texas Tech. The isn't going to happen but with this being Graham's third year, there is reason to believe the offense's pace, conditioning, and continuity will be improved.


"Tempo is the key, but you can't hurry up and mess up, either. I want to go as fast as we can (offensively) as long as we're making first downs.

"If you're going three and out, three and out, three and out, I'd like to slow down a little bit. That's just hurrying up to get beat.

"If I go into a game and I feel like we're a lot better than the other team defensively, I'll tell Mike (Norvell), 'Go as fast as you can.' " Graham said. "Mike will tell you, last year against (USC), I was telling him, 'Hey, stop scoring so fast! Slow down!'

Read more


Tags: College Football Arizona State Sun Devils PAC-12




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: College Football Against The Spread Outliers

08.25.2014     07:23 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
College football season kicks off on Thursday Night. By Labor Day, we’ll have seen 78 teams play other FBS opponents and another 46 teams play against FCS foes, available for betting at many top books on the Extra Games board. How important are those Week 1 results when we project forward? What about Week 2 and Week 3? Read on to find out!

Twenty-four college football teams were pointspread outliers last year. Twelve squads hit 70% or better ATS. Twelve more squads hit 30% or worse for the full season. This falls within recent historical patterns – in every recent season, 20-25% of the teams are strong bet-on or bet against squads. If we broaden the base to 67% ATS wins or losses for the full season, it’s not unusual to see one third or more of the teams in college football fall into bet-on or bet-against categories.

In 2013, Auburn, Missouri, Florida State, Duke, Navy, North Texas, Houston, Florida Atlantic and Wisconsin all finished the season hitting 75% ATS or better, with Bowling Green, Colorado State, Georgia State right behind. And that list doesn’t even include significant moneymakers (9-4 ATS) like Baylor, UCLA, Minnesota, Tulane, Read more


Tags: College Football Teddy Covers



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, Ian Cameron, and Paul Stone. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Sep 16, 2014 02:25 PM.