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College Football Handicapping: Week 10 Injury Report

10.30.2013     11:18 AM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by blog entry.
For Thursday’s AAC matchup vs. South Florida, Houston RB Ryan Jackson is ‘questionable’ after possibly sustaining a concussion in last week’s 49-14 win at Rutgers. Jackson has rushed 95 times for a team-high 477 yards and four touchdowns while averaging 5.0 yards per carry.

USC is hoping to get star WR Marquise Lee (knee) back for Friday’s game at Oregon State. Lee missed last week’s win over Utah and is ‘questionable’ against the Beavers. The Trojans will be without starting TE Randall Telfer and the laundry list of defensive injuries continues to grow. DE Morgan Breslin, who had a team-high 13 sacks in 2012, remains ‘out’ with a hip injury. Starting LB Lamar Dawson was recently lost to a season-ending injury along with reserve safety Gerald Bowman. Starting cornerback Anthony Brown (arm) is also ‘out’ at OSU.

Mike Riley’s team has plenty of its own injury concerns. On the last play of Oregon State’s 20-12 home loss to Stanford last week, WR Kevin Cummings was lost for the season with a broken wrist. Cummings had 23 receptions for 254 yards and two TDs during his senior Read more

Tags: College Football Brian Edwards

College Football Betting: SEC News and Notes - Week 7

10.17.2013     12:37 PM     Alatex Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Alatex Sports blog entry.
Last week saw some shake up in the SEC East standings with Georgia falling to Missouri and Florida losing at LSU for their first conference losses. Georgia had been in the driver’s seat to win the East, but they, Florida, and South Carolina are now all behind the new leader and only remaining unbeaten, Missouri. The Tigers may not remain unbeaten, however, as they lost quarterback James Franklin to a separated shoulder for at least 3-4 weeks and will host Florida this week with a freshman under center. Tennessee, Vanderbilt and Kentucky remain winless to make up the rest of the East standings.

In the West, Alabama took care of Kentucky, 48-7, to keep its place at the top of the standings and remain the only unbeaten team. LSU, Auburn, and Texas A&M all have one loss and are behind the Tide while Ole Miss, Mississippi State and Arkansas bring up the rear.

Here are my power rankings for the entire conference.

1. Alabama - The Tide looked pretty bad in the first half against Kentucky yet still were never in doubt of winning. They finally quit fumbling and dropping passes in the second half and wound up with an unimpressive 48-7 Read more

Tags: College Footbal SEC Brent Crow

College Football Handicapping: Community Power Ratings Week 8

10.15.2013     01:14 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Going forward, let’s just call these “community” Power Ratings. Feel free to post comments below or alert me on twitter (@jefffogle) if you think we have a misread on a team. The numbers already reflect a composite of market influences, stats, and college football discussions anyway. We’ll just call them “community” rankings for this sport.

Some of you who have known me awhile will recognize this from past years in sports betting forums. Though, back then I was trying to get a “power of the collective” thing going in the NFL. It generally ended up being my read of the markets with three of four nice posters stepping into say “thank you” afterward. Not really the COMMUNITY effort I was hoping for. But, a lot of people are shy, and just want to see some numbers anyway. I’m going to stick with “Estimated Market” ratings right now for the Read more

Tags: College Football Stat Intelligence

College Football Handicapping: Week 6 Injury Report

10.02.2013     12:31 PM         Printer Friendly
Submitted by blog entry.
Texas quarterback David Ash has been ruled ‘out’ of Thursday’s game at Iowa State due to lingering concussion symptoms. Ash sustained his first concussion in a 40-21 loss at BYU in Week 2. After sitting out a loss to Ole Miss, he returned to start in a 31-21 win over Kansas State. However, Ash suffered a second head injury against the Wildcats and didn’t return in the second half. This means Case McCoy will get the starting nod for the second time this season. Ash has seven touchdown passes compared to two interceptions this season, while McCoy has one TD pass and hasn’t been intercepted. Also, Texas’s best wide receiver, Mike Davis, is ‘questionable’ against the Cylcones. Davis sprained his ankle in the loss to Ole Miss and didn’t play against Kansas St. In the first three games, Davis had 20 receptions for 223 yards and four TDs.

Arkansas quarterback Brandon Allen returned to the lineup in last week’s 45-33 loss to Texas A&M. Allen threw for 282 yards and three TDs against the Aggies, but he was picked off twice. The Razorbacks took the cash as 13.5-point home underdogs. Allen missed a 28-24 loss at Read more

Tags: College Football Brian Edwards

College Football Betting News and Notes - Week 4

09.23.2013     07:21 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
It is usually Boise State who sits back and capitalizes on other teams' mistakes not the other way around. Friday's game against Fresno was one of the more sloppy games I've ever seen out of the Broncos yet they somehow covered the number (+3.5) and had a chance to win the game outright. Down 17-10 early in the second quarter, Boise scored a touchdown but failed on a mysterious two-point conversion (note that the final score was 41-40). Miss one two-point conversion and you're likely to go for two again at some point. Midway through the fourth quarter the Broncos cut the lead to 34-32 and had yet another failed two-point conversion. On their next drive they finally cracked the code and put eight on the board but it put them up only six. Fresno would score a touchdown with three minutes left to give them the 41-40 lead for good. All told, Boise was 1-for-3 on two-point conversions, 1-for-4 on fourth down conversions, and committed two turnovers. Happy to kick PATs, Fresno had no turnovers, was 2-for-2 on fourth downs, and moved to 3-0 on the season.

It is hard for serious bettors to be active in laying huge points because there are typically more factors involved than Read more

Tags: College Football Andrew Lange

College Football Handicapping: Estimated Power Ratings as of 8/26/13

08.26.2013     02:08 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

We’ve seen some early week line movements for the debut of college football in 2013 this Thursday. I’ve tweaked our estimated Power Ratings from a few weeks ago as a result.

The numbers you see below assume 3 points for home field advantage. I create a couplet for each game based on the market spread adjusted for home field (or, left alone in the case of neutral site games), then try to place that couplet on “the big board” scale. So…if a team is a 12-point favorite on a neutral field, I make sure those teams are 12 points apart…then try to figure out where they would logically sit in the big picture based on last year’s final numbers…offseason changes…early numbers in the “game of the year” stuff in Vegas for upcoming matchups…etc. If a team is a 12-point favorite at home, then I make sure those teams are 9 points apart.
(If you're wondering why I use a universal 3 points for home field Read more

Tags: College Football Stat Intelligence

College Basketbal Betting Free Pick: Auburn Tigers at Alabama Crimson Tide

02.26.2013     12:13 PM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC blog entry.
Auburn +11.5 at Alabama O/U 119
Recommendation: Auburn

Alabama hasn’t been just bad a home chalk in SEC play…they’ve been abysmal! The results don’t lie as the Crimson Tide enter tonight’s rivalry showdown against Auburn on a dreadful 0-6 ATS run in their six SEC home games as favorites. They had single-digit home wins against Tennessee, Arkansas, LSU and Texas A&M – none of which were enough for a pointspread cover as home favorites. Alabama was only able to beat SEC bottom feeders Mississippi State by 8 as 15-point home favorites and South Carolina by 10 as 12-point home favorites. The spot is not good either for the home team tonight. Alabama is coming off a wild triple OT thriller at LSU coming up just short 97-94 after blowing a 10-point lead with 2 minutes left. That isn’t the kind of loss that is easy to rebound from especially when you are talking about a team needing to win by a significant margin.

The Read more

Tags: College Basketball Auburn Tigers Alabama Crimson Tide Ian Cameron

College Foobtall Betting: SEC News and Notes Week 9

10.30.2012     07:34 AM     Alatex Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Alatex Sports blog entry.
Two of the three remaining unbeatens in the SEC suffered their first loss of the season last week, leaving Alabama with the only perfect record in the conference. The Crimson Tide handed Mississippi State its first loss of the season, 38-7. Alabama was never really threatened in the game, jumping out to a quick 21-0 lead and suffocating the Mississippi State offense. The Bulldogs avoided a shutout late in the 4th quarter by scoring against the Tide’s backups.

The Georgia Bulldogs took care of the other unbeaten, dispatching Florida in a sloppy 17-9 win. The Gators' inefficient offense did them in, as Georgia forced six turnovers and held Florida to three field goal attempts. Florida had been winning despite their lack of a passing game and its defense did its job again this week, but Georgia's defense continually came up with big play after big play. Georgia now holds the tiebreaker over Florida in the race for the SEC East, and will go to the championship game if they can avoid another SEC loss.

South Carolina got back on track with its win over Tennessee, holding off the Volunteers, 38-35. The Tennessee defense was once again awful, allowing the Read more

Tags: College Football SEC Brent Crow

College Foobtall Betting: SEC News and Notes Week 7

10.17.2012     08:04 AM     Alatex Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Alatex Sports blog entry.
The SEC game of the year to date was no letdown, as LSU handed South Carolina its first loss of the year, 23-21. The game was not as close as the final score, with LSU dominating the line of scrimmage the entire game and outgaining the Gamecocks, 406-211. LSU basically gave South Carolina two touchdowns, one after a long interception return and their last one with two minutes left after LSU had taken a nine-point lead. LSU was also forced to attempt four field goals after long drives, making three. Both teams now have tough road games with LSU going to Texas A&M and South Carolina heading to the Swamp to face Florida.

Florida had a tough road win at Vanderbilt last week, getting the pointspread cover when quarterback Jeff Driskel broke a 70-yard touchdown run with 2:20 remaining. Vanderbilt put up 363 yards against the Florida defense, but could not stop the Gator running game, allowing 326 yards rushing on the night.

Texas A&M also had a road win, but its defensive effort was not up to SEC standards. The Aggies jumped out to a 34-7 lead in the second quarter, but allowed Louisiana Tech to come roaring back before holding on for a 59-57 win. A&M had Read more

Tags: College Football SEC Brent Crow

College Foobtall Betting: SEC News and Notes Week 6

10.11.2012     05:51 AM     Alatex Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Alatex Sports blog entry.
South Carolina 35-7 blowout of Georgia may have been the most impressive win of the year in SEC play. The Gamecocks jumped out to a 21-0 lead in under ten minutes of action and the Bulldogs’ only tally came with 1:55 left in the game. Georgia had scored 41 points or more in all five of its games before running into a Gamecocks defense that held them to 224 total yards and seven points. The Bulldogs had also gained 1,127 yards their two previous tilts against Vandy and Tennessee. It was a complete domination by the Gamecocks, who now must go to LSU this week to take on the beaten down Tigers.

If LSU’s offensive performance in their 14-6 loss at Florida was indicative of what will happen this week, the Tigers may not cross the 50-yard line against USC. Florida trailed 6-0 at halftime, but used a solid running game to wear down the LSU defense in the second half. Florida ran the ball on 17 of 18 plays in its consecutive scoring drives bridging the 3rd and 4th quarters. Florida QB Jeff Driskel attempted just 12 passes, competing eight for only 61 yards. The Gator defense dominated the LSU offensive line, holding LSU to 42 yards rushing and 200 total yards on the Read more

Tags: College Football SEC Brent Crow


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