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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Playoff bound, but Super Bowl XLVIII bound?

12.23.2013     07:23 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Last year, heading into Week 17, Atlanta was the team to beat in the NFC, having already clinched homefield advantage with their 13-2 (at the time) record.  Washington was the hottest team in the conference and Green Bay was considered very live for the title, with Aaron Rodgers just one year removed from his Super Bowl ring.  In the AFC, the playoff were expected to be an eventual battle between the Patriots and Broncos, with the other four teams (Baltimore, Cincinnati, Houston and Indy) largely considered to be fodder for the elites; non-factors.

What happened? A San Francisco-Baltimore Super Bowl, won by the Ravens; their third straight postseason win as an underdog.  Let’s not forget that Baltimore entered the playoffs in the midst of a late season 1-4 SU and ATS skid; a team that NOBODY expected to make noise in January and February.

In 2011, in the NFC, Green Bay was the unbeatable juggernaut with a 15-1 record as the defending champs, and the Saints weren’t far behind, just one year removed from a Drew Brees Super Bowl ring.  Meanwhile, the Giants were on the outside of the playoff picture, needing to beat Dallas just to get Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Super Bowl XLVIII Las Vegas




NFL Handicapping: Brady wants offense to play at faster tempo

12.19.2013     07:58 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
New England at Baltimore -2.5 O/U 44.5

A couple of quotes from New England quarterback Tom Brady about potentially picking up the pace against the Baltimore Ravens.


“Maybe we should do it more often,” Brady said on Wednesday, after the team’s first practice of the week in advance of their final regular-season road game, Sunday at Baltimore. “I just think we’re trying to figure out what we think is best to do to help us win. It just hasn’t really required that. But we go fast plenty of times, in those two-minute situations where we’ve done a good job.”

“To run three plays and punt really quickly doesn’t do you any more good than running three plays and huddling and all that, and [then] punting. Ultimately we have to score enough points and that Read more



Tags: NFL New England Patriots Baltimore Ravens




NFL Handicapping: Pace Factor heading into Week 15

12.19.2013     07:19 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

If you’re new to the blog, these are per-game averages in the sum of total plays + penalties + field goal attempts + punts for games involving each team. Buffalo’s games have had the most plays at 167.4 by my count, even faster paced than the “Oregon-style” Philadelphia Eagles at 166.8. Of course, Buffalo also has a first-year coach that just came up from the college level. The slowest paced team by this measure is Carolina, with 146.0 in their games on average. Hasn’t that pace helped the defense drive while encouraging Cam Newton to play relatively mistake-free?

The scale…

Helter Skelter (159 and up)

Buffalo 167.4

Philadelphia 166.8

Cleveland 165.6

Denver 163.6

New England 163.0

Baltimore 161.7

Kansas City 159.4
 
Faster Than Average (156-158)

Jacksonville 157.3 (influenced by playing from behind so Read more


Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




College Football Betting Preview: Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan Wolverines

11.27.2013     01:48 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Ohio State at Michigan
Saturday, 9 am PT - ABC
CRIS Opener:
Ohio State -14 O/U 58
CRIS Current: Ohio State -14.5 O/U 57.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Ohio State -14
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Ohio State

To say that the Buckeyes have a special chip on their shoulder this week is something of an understatement.  That’s very bad news for the Wolverines, especially when we consider Michigan’s significant offensive decline as the season has progressed.

The last time Ohio State visited the Big House, Michigan hung 40 on the Buckeyes in a win that snapped a seven game skid for the Wolverines.  Ohio State got right back on track last year, with a win and cover against Michigan in Columbus.  This series is still called a rivalry but it really hasn’t been much of a rivalry since Lloyd Carr left town.

Ohio State won’t take prisoners in this Read more


Tags: College Football Ohio State Buckeyes Michigan Wolverines Big Ten Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: AFC Super Bowl Contenders

11.25.2013     07:54 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Last week, I took a break from the typical team notes column that I’ve been writing here in the Vegas Wiseguy Report since the start of the NFL season, focusing on NFC Playoff Contenders. I’ll finish that thought process this week, turning my focus towards the AFC.

I had a spirited debate with a fairly well known professional bettor on Sunday Night after the games were finished. We were both having the same problem; trying to figure out somebody – anybody – in the AFC worthy of support down the stretch as a Super Bowl contender. Frankly, there aren’t a whole lot of choices, and our debate primarily consisted of finding fatal flaws in whatever team the other guy brought up.

My power rating numbers have seven of the top ten teams in the NFL residing in the NFC (Seattle, New Orleans, San Francisco, Carolina, Arizona, Dallas and Detroit). An eighth team could join that group after Aaron Rodgers gets healthy for Green Bay.  And all three of those supposedly elite level AFC teams have problems, which is why I included a fourth contender in my discussion below.

Six AFC teams sit at 5-6 right now, tied for the final Wild Card Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




NFL Gambling Preview: Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints

11.07.2013     01:52 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Dallas at New Orleans
Sunday, 5:30 pm PT - NBC
CRIS Opener:
New Orleans -6.5 O/U 52
CRIS Current: New Orleans -6.5 O/U 53.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: New Orleans -7.5
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Over

Dallas can’t stop the pass, plain and simple.  Monte Kiffin’s Cover-2 defense has been an improvement over Rob Ryan’s stop unit from last year in one regard only – they force more turnovers.  Last year, the Cowboys finished the season creating only 16 takeaways in 16 games.  This year, the Cowboys have 21 takeaways through their first nine games and rank #2 in the NFL with a +10 turnover margin.

Drew Brees threw a pair of interceptions in an ugly loss at the Jets last Sunday.  This offense is clearly built for domes, not for outdoor venues.  They were held to just two field goals and one third down conversion after halftime, reminiscent of their road showing at Read more


Tags: NFL Dallas Cowboys New Orleans Saints Teddy Covers




NFL Handicapping: Best and Worst Drive Point Performances

11.06.2013     07:11 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Here are offensive and defensive Drive Point averages through the games of November 5. I’ll arrange them in matchup order late in the week. It’s been awhile since we looked at them from best to worst. And, this way we get to include next week’s bye teams too.

If you’re new to the site, Drive Points are those scored and allowed on drives of 60 yards or more as described in boxscores that itemize scoring drives or in drive charts. This focuses on the pure ability of offenses to drive the field, and defenses to prevent opponents from doing so. Special teams TD’s aren’t counted. Defensive TD’s aren’t counted. Cheap points off turnovers aren’t counted. Only points scored and allowed on drives of 60 yards or more.

Best Drive Point Offenses (more than 14): Denver 22.3, Chicago 18.0, Green Bay 16.6, Washington 16.1, Detroit 16.1, New Orleans 15.8, New England 15.8, San Diego 15.8, Philadelphia 15.6, San Francisco 15.1, Read more


Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




NFL Gambling Preview: Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots

10.31.2013     12:06 PM     Alatex Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Alatex Sports

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Pittsburgh at New England
Sunday, 1:25 pm PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
New England -7 O/U 43
CRIS Current: New England -6 O/U 43
Rob Veno's Power Rating: New England -8
Brent Crow's Recommendation: Pittsburgh

In years past this would have likely been the marquee game of the week with the success these two franchises have had. In fact, of the last ten AFC championship games, nine have featured Pittsburgh, New England or both.

This year, they are both trying to rebuild and do not resemble the high powered teams the NFL is used to seeing. New England has somehow managed to win six of its eight games with Tom Brady having his worst season ever thanks mostly to a lack of experienced weapons. The Steelers meanwhile have struggled to a 2-5 mark and have had trouble on both sides of the ball, with their trademark defense being the biggest culprit, especially against the run.

Steelers’ coach Mike Tomlin Read more


Tags: NFL Pittsburgh Steelers New England Patriots Brent Crow




NFL Betting News and Notes - Week 8

10.30.2013     07:38 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Welcome to a sportsbooks worst nightmare
This was not the week to be a bookmaker. The public, which tends to bet favorites and overs, had a grand time in Week 8. Favorites went 8-5 ATS and totals were also 8-5 O/U. Thankfully, sportsbooks got the desired result on Monday night when the Rams and under both cashed but it still didn’t prevent an overall tough week for the books. Four of the biggest public teams in the NFL – all favorites – overcame sluggish starts to grab pointspread covers: New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, Green Bay Packers and Denver Broncos – and three of the four games involving those teams sailed over the total. This is just more proof that it is no longer safe nor practical to simply fade the public. The public doesn’t always lose and it is something that bettors must understand as they attempt to beat the NFL.

The risk of overreacting
It’s easy to overreact to results in the NFL. It happens all the time and even I find myself guilty of doing so. I’ve singled out the Monday night game that likely shocked many bettors when the Seattle Seahawks not only failed Read more


Tags: NFL Seattle Seahawks St. Louis Rams New England Patriots Ian Cameron




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: AFC News and Notes from Week 8

10.28.2013     07:29 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Welcome to Teddy’s unique look at the NFL. Teddy watches games all day on Sunday, typing furiously on his laptop while giving you the key info that the box scores and game recaps don’t necessarily have. This week: AFC thoughts and opinions from Week 8.

Cincinnati Bengals
Andy Dalton looked really good last week against the Lions, and he looked every bit as good here on a five TD afternoon. The Jets played their corners in single coverage for most of the game, and Cincinnati’s receivers won the vast majority of those one-on-one battles. Cinci’s offensive line kept Dalton’s uniform clean for extended stretches, giving him time to throw. And Dalton showed great accuracy on his deep balls, something he hasn’t shown very often as a pro. It’s surely worth noting that Dalton only targeted AJ Green on seven of his thirty pass attempts, spreading the ball among his playmakers; something that’s been a problem for him in the past.

The Bengals have the requisite offensive playmakers to make a deep January run. Their defense was stellar; effectively blitzing (and rattling) Geno Smith, creating turnovers, Read more


Tags: NFL Cincinnati Bengals Buffalo Bills Miami Dolphins Oakland Raiders Cleveland Browns Kansas City Chiefs Teddy Covers



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, Ian Cameron, and Paul Stone. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Sep 30, 2014 12:52 PM.