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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: AFC Season Over/Under Win "morphers"

06.23.2014     08:47 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Two weeks ago, I wrote about the seven NFC teams that are projected to improve or decline by two wins or more in 2014 based on the current market numbers for their season win totals.  I intended to write Part II of the article last week, talking about the four AFC teams that are also projected to improve or decline by two wins or more in 2014, but I got derailed by the College Football Game of the Year openers at the Golden Nugget; a “must report” event.  So, let’s just call it better late than never!

The markets are telling us to expect more of the same from 12 of the 16 AFC teams.  What makes these four squads different? My goal here is to focus on why these particular teams are expected to improve or decline significantly compared to last year.  I’ll do that by looking at how the broader market conditions affect the numbers.  What do the markets fixate upon?  What do they largely ignore?  Read on to find out. 

Kansas City Chiefs: 11-5 in 2013, O/U 8 wins in 2014
Last year in this space, I called the Chiefs coming off a truly dismal 2-14 campaign “the poster child for Read more


Tags: NFL AFC Kansas City Chiefs Cleveland Browns Cincinnati Bengals Houston Texas Teddy Covers Las Vegas




Super Bowl XLVIII Prop Bet: Doug Baldwin Total Receiving Yards

01.30.2014     11:19 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Doug Baldwin Total Receiving Yards
Recommendation: Over 39.5


Baldwin’s season averages won’t support this wager – hence some early Under money that drove this total from 40.5 down to 39.5 at several key books.   But with Percy Harvin on the field for the Super Bowl, it should open things up for Baldwin.  And Baldwin has become Wilson’s go-to guy down the stretch.  He had 63+ receiving yards six of the last nine games that he was involved in the offense (he  sat for most of their Week 17 regular season finale), including a six catch, 106 yard effort against the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game.  And this is the type of wager we can cash with a single big play!

Last season Teddy Covers and his clients CRUSHED the prop bets with a 10-1 record. For Sunday's Super Bowl XLVIII, he has nine props with analysis and a recommendation on the game's side. Get them all for only $49.

Below is what clients received with Teddy's prop bet package last year...

WIN - Will There Be Three Read more


Tags: NFL Denver Broncos Seattle Seahawks Super Bowl XLVIII Teddy Covers




AFC Championship Betting Recap: Denver's defense dominates New England

01.20.2014     06:49 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Masters class performance from Peyton Manning in terms of moving the chains and driving the field. Denver just marched up and down at will, though they had a tendency to stall and settle for field goals in a way that kept things in the neighborhood of getting interesting.

Early in the fourth quarter, Denver was up 23-3…with all 23 points coming on drives of 60 yards or more. That’s 3 field goals and 2 touchdowns. The yardage advantage after the drive was 430-160. Denver was 7 of 11 on third downs…meaning they were basically converting EVERY third down until they got close (only 1 punt, which came on their first drive of the day).

Manning finished with 400 passing yards, a 74% completion rate, no interceptions, and no sacks. As sharp as it gets.

And, you also have to give masters class credit to the Denver defense…because shutting down Tom Brady  most of the day like that ain't easy! Though, Patriots fans have actually seen a lot of this through Read more


Tags: NFL Denver Broncos New England Patriots




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Playoff bound, but Super Bowl XLVIII bound?

12.23.2013     07:23 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Last year, heading into Week 17, Atlanta was the team to beat in the NFC, having already clinched homefield advantage with their 13-2 (at the time) record.  Washington was the hottest team in the conference and Green Bay was considered very live for the title, with Aaron Rodgers just one year removed from his Super Bowl ring.  In the AFC, the playoff were expected to be an eventual battle between the Patriots and Broncos, with the other four teams (Baltimore, Cincinnati, Houston and Indy) largely considered to be fodder for the elites; non-factors.

What happened? A San Francisco-Baltimore Super Bowl, won by the Ravens; their third straight postseason win as an underdog.  Let’s not forget that Baltimore entered the playoffs in the midst of a late season 1-4 SU and ATS skid; a team that NOBODY expected to make noise in January and February.

In 2011, in the NFC, Green Bay was the unbeatable juggernaut with a 15-1 record as the defending champs, and the Saints weren’t far behind, just one year removed from a Drew Brees Super Bowl ring.  Meanwhile, the Giants were on the outside of the playoff picture, needing to beat Dallas just to get Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Super Bowl XLVIII Las Vegas




NFL Handicapping: Brady wants offense to play at faster tempo

12.19.2013     07:58 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
New England at Baltimore -2.5 O/U 44.5

A couple of quotes from New England quarterback Tom Brady about potentially picking up the pace against the Baltimore Ravens.


“Maybe we should do it more often,” Brady said on Wednesday, after the team’s first practice of the week in advance of their final regular-season road game, Sunday at Baltimore. “I just think we’re trying to figure out what we think is best to do to help us win. It just hasn’t really required that. But we go fast plenty of times, in those two-minute situations where we’ve done a good job.”

“To run three plays and punt really quickly doesn’t do you any more good than running three plays and huddling and all that, and [then] punting. Ultimately we have to score enough points and that Read more



Tags: NFL New England Patriots Baltimore Ravens




NFL Handicapping: Pace Factor heading into Week 15

12.19.2013     07:19 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

If you’re new to the blog, these are per-game averages in the sum of total plays + penalties + field goal attempts + punts for games involving each team. Buffalo’s games have had the most plays at 167.4 by my count, even faster paced than the “Oregon-style” Philadelphia Eagles at 166.8. Of course, Buffalo also has a first-year coach that just came up from the college level. The slowest paced team by this measure is Carolina, with 146.0 in their games on average. Hasn’t that pace helped the defense drive while encouraging Cam Newton to play relatively mistake-free?

The scale…

Helter Skelter (159 and up)

Buffalo 167.4

Philadelphia 166.8

Cleveland 165.6

Denver 163.6

New England 163.0

Baltimore 161.7

Kansas City 159.4
 
Faster Than Average (156-158)

Jacksonville 157.3 (influenced by playing from behind so Read more


Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




College Football Betting Preview: Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan Wolverines

11.27.2013     01:48 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Ohio State at Michigan
Saturday, 9 am PT - ABC
CRIS Opener:
Ohio State -14 O/U 58
CRIS Current: Ohio State -14.5 O/U 57.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Ohio State -14
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Ohio State

To say that the Buckeyes have a special chip on their shoulder this week is something of an understatement.  That’s very bad news for the Wolverines, especially when we consider Michigan’s significant offensive decline as the season has progressed.

The last time Ohio State visited the Big House, Michigan hung 40 on the Buckeyes in a win that snapped a seven game skid for the Wolverines.  Ohio State got right back on track last year, with a win and cover against Michigan in Columbus.  This series is still called a rivalry but it really hasn’t been much of a rivalry since Lloyd Carr left town.

Ohio State won’t take prisoners in this Read more


Tags: College Football Ohio State Buckeyes Michigan Wolverines Big Ten Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: AFC Super Bowl Contenders

11.25.2013     07:54 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Last week, I took a break from the typical team notes column that I’ve been writing here in the Vegas Wiseguy Report since the start of the NFL season, focusing on NFC Playoff Contenders. I’ll finish that thought process this week, turning my focus towards the AFC.

I had a spirited debate with a fairly well known professional bettor on Sunday Night after the games were finished. We were both having the same problem; trying to figure out somebody – anybody – in the AFC worthy of support down the stretch as a Super Bowl contender. Frankly, there aren’t a whole lot of choices, and our debate primarily consisted of finding fatal flaws in whatever team the other guy brought up.

My power rating numbers have seven of the top ten teams in the NFL residing in the NFC (Seattle, New Orleans, San Francisco, Carolina, Arizona, Dallas and Detroit). An eighth team could join that group after Aaron Rodgers gets healthy for Green Bay.  And all three of those supposedly elite level AFC teams have problems, which is why I included a fourth contender in my discussion below.

Six AFC teams sit at 5-6 right now, tied for the final Wild Card Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




NFL Gambling Preview: Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints

11.07.2013     01:52 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Dallas at New Orleans
Sunday, 5:30 pm PT - NBC
CRIS Opener:
New Orleans -6.5 O/U 52
CRIS Current: New Orleans -6.5 O/U 53.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: New Orleans -7.5
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Over

Dallas can’t stop the pass, plain and simple.  Monte Kiffin’s Cover-2 defense has been an improvement over Rob Ryan’s stop unit from last year in one regard only – they force more turnovers.  Last year, the Cowboys finished the season creating only 16 takeaways in 16 games.  This year, the Cowboys have 21 takeaways through their first nine games and rank #2 in the NFL with a +10 turnover margin.

Drew Brees threw a pair of interceptions in an ugly loss at the Jets last Sunday.  This offense is clearly built for domes, not for outdoor venues.  They were held to just two field goals and one third down conversion after halftime, reminiscent of their road showing at Read more


Tags: NFL Dallas Cowboys New Orleans Saints Teddy Covers




NFL Handicapping: Best and Worst Drive Point Performances

11.06.2013     07:11 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Here are offensive and defensive Drive Point averages through the games of November 5. I’ll arrange them in matchup order late in the week. It’s been awhile since we looked at them from best to worst. And, this way we get to include next week’s bye teams too.

If you’re new to the site, Drive Points are those scored and allowed on drives of 60 yards or more as described in boxscores that itemize scoring drives or in drive charts. This focuses on the pure ability of offenses to drive the field, and defenses to prevent opponents from doing so. Special teams TD’s aren’t counted. Defensive TD’s aren’t counted. Cheap points off turnovers aren’t counted. Only points scored and allowed on drives of 60 yards or more.

Best Drive Point Offenses (more than 14): Denver 22.3, Chicago 18.0, Green Bay 16.6, Washington 16.1, Detroit 16.1, New Orleans 15.8, New England 15.8, San Diego 15.8, Philadelphia 15.6, San Francisco 15.1, Read more


Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence



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