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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Wizards and Grizzlies have been postseason ATS darlings

05.11.2015     08:27 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The 2014 NBA Playoffs were something of an exception to the rule, because there were no red hot pointspread runs to open the playoffs.  In most years, one or two teams stand out as postseason pointspread overachievers as the playoffs begin.  This year, for example, we’ve got two of them – the Memphis Grizzlies and the Washington Wizards, a combined 12-3 ATS through the first two rounds.  

I first really began paying serious attention to this phenomenon in 2009, when the Denver Nuggets opened up the playoffs on a 12-0 ATS run (11-0-1 ATS for some).  My clients and I were onboard for 11 of those 12 ATS victories; and I vowed to look for and find similar teams in the future – teams that hit their stride in late April after being widely overlooked by both bookmakers and bettors at the start of the postseason for whatever reason.

In 2010, Orlando swept their first two opponents in the playoffs, going 7-0-1 ATS in the process. The Phoenix Suns were also major moneymakers, going 8-2 ATS before running into the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals.  2011 saw the Dallas Mavericks open up the playoffs by cashing at a Read more



Tags: NBA Memphis Grizzlies Washington Wizards Teddy Covers




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Miami Marlins at San Francisco Giants

05.07.2015     10:35 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Miami (Haren) at San Francisco (Hudson) -125 O/U 7
Recommendation: Over


We’re not going to see a fastball in the 90’s from either starting pitcher.  Thirty-nine-year-old Tim Hudson is coming off an extended outing; pitching into the ninth inning of his win over the Angels last weekend.   His quote, following that start: “It is nice to know that you can go out there and pitch deep into the game. But I wouldn't expect it too much from the old guy, to be honest."

Hudson has allowed five home runs in his last three starts; always a red flag. Prior to his win against the Angels, he was winless in his previous eleven starts at AT&T Park (dating back to last year, including postseason), with a 6.00 home ERA during that span.  The Giants bullpen behind him got lit up last night; not the freshest of units heading into Thursday.

The Marlins are strongly trending to the Over on the highway, 9-2-1 to the Over in their last dozen road games.  They’ve got bullpen issues of their own; hit hard twice in their just concluded series at Washington.  Miami starter Dan Haren is a correction Read more



Tags: MLB Miami Marlins San Francisco Giants Teddy Covers




Big weekend for Las Vegas with Mayweather-Pacquiao and Kentucky Derby

04.28.2015     08:00 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Las Vegas oddsmakers feel that Saturday's Mayweather-Pacquiao fight will provide a boost to their handle on the Kentucky Derby.


''We've got a hook nobody talks about," he told the Newark Star Ledger this weekend in reference to how his book at the South Point seeks to offset the potential of ‘smart money’ failing to roll in on the fight. "The Kentucky Derby. They will be sitting in the sports book at 6:30, half of them freakin' drunk and they are going to be running around in a festive mood, and they are going to bet the Derby just to have something to do until the fight. I would bet we might just set a Derby record."






Tags: Boxing Floyd Mayweather Manny Pacquiao Las Vegas




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NBA Eastern Conference Playoffs update

04.27.2015     08:26 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
We’re midway through the opening round of the NBA Playoffs and the Eastern Conference still looks noticeably weaker than the West, just as it was during the regular season.  The Cavs weren’t really tested in their sweep over Boston, facing a Celtics team that probably would have struggled to won 30 games against a Western Conference slate.  Atlanta is 0-3 ATS in its first three games against the Nets, looking nothing like the team that dominated the East for extended stretches before the All-Star break.  The Bulls blew a chance to close out their series with the Bucks with a sweep, unable to seal the deal in the closing minutes of Game 4. And while Washington has looked every bit as good as any of the other Eastern Conference contenders, there’s still a lingering stink from the Wizards second half struggles and Randy Wittman’s consistent failures at getting his teams to overachieve.

So which of those four teams (assuming the Hawks don’t blow the series against the Nets) is truly elite, capable of winning at least two more series to make it to the Finals?  Cleveland is the prohibitive favorite to come out of the East, Read more



Tags: NBA Teddy Covers Las Vegas




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Spurs could be in trouble following Game 1 loss

04.20.2015     07:55 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The San Antonio Spurs opened their defense of their NBA Championship run from last year with a blowout loss on the road at the Staples Center in LA against the Clippers.  That Game 1 and the series against the Clips featured some EXTREMELY unusual betting action here in Las Vegas and offshore – money coming on one team (the Clippers) for Game 1 while coming on the other team (San Antonio) for the series.  I can’t recall any previous series in my 17 basketball seasons here in Las Vegas where the Game 1 favorite was not the favorite to win the series.  The betting action was a clear indicator of the respect bettors have for San Antonio heading into the 2015 postseason.

But following that Game 1 debacle, the Spurs aren’t favored to win the series anymore, with the adjusted series prices popping up following Game 1 showing LA as short chalk moving forward. The question bettors and pundits need to be asking is a simple one.  Was the Spurs Game 1 loss simply a bump in the road for this perennial championship contender or was it an "end of an era" indicator, telling us that the Spurs are "fade" material moving Read more



Tags: NBA San Antonio Spurs Los Angeles Clippers Teddy Covers




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros

04.18.2015     07:34 AM     Otto Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Otto Sports

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Los Angeles (Wilson) at Houston (Keuchel) -115 O/U 8
Recommendation: Over


Betting MLB totals is all about matchups. Yesterday's Angels-Astros game had a total of 9ov because Jered Weaver and Roberto Hernandez are perceived to be mediocre starters --which is true to a certain extent. However, from a matchup perspective, Weaver's right-handed slop vs. free-swinging right-hand heavy Houston was favorable and the same can be said for Hernandez's sinker ball ways vs. LA. The results played out as such as the two combined for a solid 12 innings, 5 ERs, 9 Ks, and no walks. The perception on today's two starters is far different as the total opened 7.5. However, the matchup is much more favorable for the offenses. Throughout his career CJ Wilson has shown a fairly strong split but it's even more pronounced in recent years. Last season, Wilson held lefties to .198. Against righties a dismal .273/.409. Houston starter Dallas Keuchel has similar tendencies with righties hitting 32 points higher. Both lineups have the ability to stack up on right-handed bats with a handful of them capable of driving the ball out of the park. Even with the big move towards the Read more



Tags: MLB Los Angeles Angels Houston Astros OTTO Sports




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: National League Preview

04.13.2015     07:23 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Last week in this space, I wrote a team-by-team overview of the 15 American League squads.  This week, I’ll shift my focus to the National League, breaking down each team from a Las Vegas perspective.  Teams are listed in alphabetical order, by division.

A week ago, the Atlanta Braves were viewed as likely bottom feeders following a massive offseason rebuild that resulted in only six players from opening day last year returning on opening day in 2015; lined in the same range as teams like Arizona, Colorado and Minnesota.  One week later and the market view of Atlanta has changed at least somewhat thanks to a 5-1 record with the best run differential in the NL.  Julio Teheran, Shelby Miller and Alex Wood all hav top-of-the-rotation stuff, but it’s hard to picture this anemic lineup continuing to deliver steady run support.

The Miami Marlins hung around in the wild card race into the dog days of August last year before Giancarlo Stanton’s Read more



Tags: MLB Teddy Covers




MLB Handicapping: Renovations could impact fly balls at Wrigley Field

04.07.2015     07:40 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Good article on the potential impact Wrigley Field's renovations will have on fly balls.


"In my experience, weather and wind play a bigger part in how the game goes at that ballpark than any other ballpark in baseball," said Len Kasper, the Cubs' television play-by-play announcer.

"I would imagine that with the board in left, that may create a bit of a dead space. If you get ahold of one directly at that board, and the wind is blowing out of the northeast, you may get an extra 10 feet on it and that could be the difference from a flyout to a home run," he said. "But until we see it and experience it and probably go through several seasons, I don't think we'll be able to really dig into the effect of any structural changes."

"Pitchers aren't going to like it, but it will be interesting to see," first baseman Anthony Rizzo said. "It's something I've thought of. Especially with the new bleachers and the way they'll be elevated. It will be interesting to see how it plays

Read more



Tags: MLB Chicago Cubs




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: American League Preview

04.06.2015     08:01 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The college basketball season is in the rear view mirror now.  The NBA Playoffs don’t start until next weekend.   That can only mean one thing – baseball is here!  In this week’s Wiseguy Report, I’ll be breaking down the American League, team by team in overview fashion.  I’ll do the same thing next week for the National League.  The goal?  Identify potential market inefficiencies right from the get-go; looking for overvalued and undervalued commodities.  Teams are listed in alphabetical order, by division.

The Baltimore Orioles were, by far, the single most profitable team to support in MLB last year, yet the betting markets aren’t particularly enamored with Buck Showalter’s squad heading into 2015.  The Orioles had the 2nd biggest gap between their FIP (fielding independent pitching) and their ERA last year, a strong indicator for future regression.   And the best home run hitting team in baseball lost big bats Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis in the offseason.  That being said, the Orioles have been consistently undervalued in recent seasons and they Read more



Tags: MLB Teddy Covers




Sportsmemo's MLB Betting Preview: Seattle Mariners

04.01.2015     07:30 AM     Printer Friendly
copy_mlb_preview_2015].jpg

With one of the top pitching staffs in the American League, the Seattle Mariners are projected to contend for a postseason spot. Whether or not they can produce enough offensively remains the big question.

Seattle Mariners 
2014 W-L:
87-75
2014 O/U: 66-88-8
2014 Profits: +3.6
2015 O/U Wins: 86.5
2015 AL West Odds: +160
Projected Starting Rotation: Felix Hernandez, Hisashi Iwakuma, James Paxton, JA Happ, Taijuan Walker
Key Departures: Seth Smith, Corey Hart, Kendrys Morales
Key Additions: Brandon Maurer, Nelson Cruz 
 
Handicapper's Take: "What the Chicago Cubs are to the National League, the Mariners are to the American League in terms of failed expectations.  Ironically, both teams feature heightened forecasts for the 2015 season.  The Mariners are projected to be well over .500 and a co-betting favorite with the Los Angeles Angels to win the American League West.  Pitching will once Read more



Tags: MLB Seattle Mariners Erin Rynning



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