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NFL Betting News and Notes Week 8
10.30.2012 12:59 PM
ICC
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Submitted by ICC
For the first time since taking over as head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles in 1999, Andy Reid suffered a post-bye week loss (30-17 vs. Atlanta). It was a game that provided us with a candidate for worst defensive performance of the season by the Eagles. Philly gave up big plays, tons of yards and points, and had numerous defensive penalties throughout the game. The Eagles allowed 392 total yards at a staggering 5.9 yards per play. So much for the easy transition during the bye week from former defensive coordinator Juan Castillo to Todd Bowles. If anything, the Philly defense regressed even further and will now have the explosive Saints offense to deal with on the road on Monday night.
Dallas Cowboys betting supporters were put through the entire gamut of emotions in Sunday’s thriller against the New York Giants. The Giants picked off Tony Romo three times early in the game en route to a 23-0 second quarter lead but the Cowboys didn’t pack up their saddle. They engineered four straight scoring drives (3 TDs and a FG) to take a 24-23 lead. The Giants notched a pair of field goals after that to regain a 29-24 lead in fourth. Dallas had a chance with the
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Iam Cameron
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Sports Betting Podcast 10-30-2012 with Handicappers Erin Rynning and Alf Musketa
10.30.2012 10:34 AM
Printer Friendly
Tuesday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicappers Erin Ryning and Alf Musketa. Erin covered the NBA while Alf talked NFL and NCAA early line moves.
Today's segments
Full Show
Erin Rynning - NBA EGOTB
Alf Musekta - Football Early Week Line Moves
To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our
Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage
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ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.
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Handicapper Alf Musketa's NFL and NCAAF Line Moves Report 10/30/2012
10.30.2012 07:49 AM
Alf Musketa
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Submitted by Alf Musketa
Buffalo at Houston
Total opened 48.5, now 46.5
The new trend is to bet NFL totals UNDER after the early season barrage of OVERS and linesmakers are pushing the totals higher to avoid one-way action. However, this game is an interesting handicap because both teams had last week off, they'll be rested, and we know Buffalo in particular was working on their 32nd ranked run defense. The Bills will get DE Mario Williams back in the line-up and if he ever decides to play up to the level of his new contract, Buffalo will have a pass rush. Houston can stop any team, especially the Bills, and now they'll be more than ready. I agree with the move to the UNDER.
Iowa at Indiana
Iowa opened -1.5, now Indiana -1.5
We've seen this type of line move often this college football season. It is not a market move by trending middle or scalp players, this is a sharp play that believes the opening number was simply with the wrong team and bettors are willing to take any points offered. As a handicapper I love to look at how the teams matchup offense versus defense and if last week was any indication, Iowa could not handle the
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NFL Week 8 Betting Recap: Road teams go 19-7 ATS last two weeks
10.30.2012 06:59 AM
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By the betting numbers...NFL Week 8 (see results below). We utilize CRIS's opening and closing lines.
Based on closing lines…
Road teams dominated at 9-4 ATS (Road teams are 63-50-4 ATS YTD). There was one neutral site game (New England vs. St. Louis).
Underdogs had the slight edge at 8-6 ATS (Underdogs are 70-44-4 ATS YTD).
Games lined at a touchdown or more were split 2-2 ATS (+7 or more underdogs are 17-9-1 ATS YTD).
Totals went 7-6-1 O/U (61-54-3 O/U YTD).
Based on the opening and closing lines, the market was "correct" eight times and "incorrect" twice. "Correct" meaning if a game opened -3 and closed -4 and the favorite won by 7, the market was “correct.” If a game opened -3 and closed -4 and the favorite lost outright, the market was obviously "incorrect." In four games, the game opened and closed at the same number.
Week 8 Parlay combo breakdown (111 games YTD)
Favorite-Over: 3 (25)
Favorite-Under: 3 (18)
Underdog-Over: 4 (33)
Underdog-Under: 3 (35)
Note that we did not include pick ‘em lines and pushes for our parlay combos.
2012 NFL Week 8 Betting Recap
Away Team
Home Team
Open
Close
Final
ATS Close
O/U Close
Tampa Bay
Minnesota
MIN -6
MIN -5
TB 36, MIN 17
Underdog
Over 43
New England
St. Louis*
NE -6.5
NE -7
NE 45, STL 7
Favorite
Over 46
Indianapolis
Tennessee
TEN -3
TEN -3
IND 19, TEN 13 OT
Underdog
Under 46
Jacksonville
Green Bay
GB -14.5
GB -15.5
GN 24, JAX 15
Underdog
Under 45
San Diego
Cleveland
SD -3
SD -3
CLE 7, SD 6
Underdog
Under 40.5
Atlanta
Philadelphia
PHI -2.5
PHI -3
ATL 30, PHI 17
Underdog
Over 43
Seattle
Detroit
DET -3
DET -3
DET 28, SEA 24
Favorite
Over 43
Miami
NY Jets
NYJ -3
NYJ -1
MIA 30, NYJ 9
Underdog
Push 39
Carolina
Chicago
CHI -7.5
CHI -7
CHI 23, CAR 22
Underdog
Over 40.5
Washington
Pittsburgh
PIT -4
PIT -4.5
PIT 27, WAS 12
Favorite
Under 45
Oakland
Kansas City
KC -1
KC -1
OAK 26, KC 16
Underdog
Over 41
NY Giants
Dallas
DAL -1.5
NYG -3
NYG 29, DAL 24
Favorite
Over 47.5
New Orleans
Denver
DEN -6
DEN -6.5
DEN 34, NO 14
Favorite
Under 54
San Francisco
Arizona
SF -6.5
SF -7
SF 24, AZ 3
Favorite
Under 37.5
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Monday Night Football Betting Odds: Consensus likes San Francisco 49ers and UNDER
10.29.2012 02:14 PM
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San Francisco
-7 at
Arizona
O/U 38
According to Bookmaker, nearly 60% of side bets have come in on the San Francisco 49ers for tonight's Monday Night Football contest at Arizona. The UNDER has also seen nearly 60% of the action.
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Teddy Covers' Wiseguy Report: Pre- and Post-Bye Week Teams
10.29.2012 11:45 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Last week, I wrote about the three strongest prevailing angles for the 2012 NFL season. Let me update the numbers from a week ago.
NFC Underdogs – any underdog in any game – have gone 37-12-2 ATS this season. But that angle has now suffered back-to-back losing weeks, looking like it’s come and gone as the market has adjusted to reflect the NFC’s dominance – just 3-5 ATS in Week 8 after a 2-3-1 ATS mark in Week 7.
Teams heading into the bye week are now 1-14 ATS, discounting the games where one pre-bye team faced off against another. The Jets were the only team to fall into this category on Sunday, with the 49ers pending on Monday Night. This trend is still very live; 0-3 ATS over the past two weeks.
And teams coming out of the bye are on a 9-5 ATS streak; again discounting the games where one post-bye team faced another. But that trend seems to e flat lining: 2-2 ATS in Week 7 followed by another 2-2 ATS performance in Week 8.
What’s really going on with these pre-bye or post-bye squads? For the second straight week, I focused my attention on five teams in one of these two roles.
Miami
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Atlanta Falcons
New York Jets
New England Patriots
Miami Dolphins
Philadelphia Eagles
Teddy Covers
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Sports Betting Podcast 10-29-2012 with Handicappers Teddy Covers and Rob Veno
10.29.2012 10:31 AM
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Monday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicappers Teddy Covers and Rob Veno. Teddy covered NFL Week 9 line moves while Rob recapped College Football Week 9.
Today's segments
Full Show
Teddy Covers - NFL Opening Line Report
Rob Veno - College Football Week 9 Recap
To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our
Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage
.
ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.
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Teddy Covers
Rob Veno
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NFL Gambling Trends: The history of Monday Night Football Home Underdogs
10.29.2012 07:31 AM
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Updating the historical betting results for Monday Night Football home underdogs. From 1970-1989, the profile produced a remarkable 70% ATS winners. But once the betting markets became more sophisticated, the trend actually flip-flopped and betting
against
MNF home underdogs has produced 59% winners since 2000. This year, both home underdogs covered (Seattle over Green Bay, NY Jets over Houston). Arizona is a 7-point home dog to San Francisco for tonight’s MNF matchup.
Decade – Monday Night Home Underdog ATS Results
1970-1979 – 38-16 – 70.4%
1980-1989 – 37-16 – 69.8%
1990-1999 – 25-24 – 51.0%
2000-2010 – 24-38 – 38.7%
2011-present – 4-2 – 66.7%
Year-by-Year ATS Results 1990-2012
1990 – 2-3
1991 – 4-2
1992 – 3-4
1993 – 2-1
1994 – 2-2
1995 – 3-2
1996 – 2-1
1997 – 1-3
1998 – 4-3
1999 – 2-3
2000 – 3-0
2001 – 0-4
2002 – 3-2
2003 – 1-5
2004 – 2-3
2005 – 1-3
2006 – 4-3
2007 – 2-4
2008 – 1-1
2009 – 4-5
2010 – 3-8
2011 - 2-2
2012 - 2-0
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NFL Handicapper Free Play: Carolina Panthers at Chicago Bears
10.28.2012 07:22 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Carolina
+7.5 at
Chicago
O/U 42
Recommendation: Carolina
Carolina is 1-5 this year, coming off the heels of a 6-10 campaign last season. But the Panthers certainly aren’t a case of total ineptitude – they’re in almost every game right through the final gun. Rather, the Panthers problem in the Ron Rivera/Cam Newton era has been the inability to win tight games. They’re 0-4 this year in games decided by a TD or less, much like last year when the Panthers went 1-5 in close games.
That record includes a tight, spread covering five point loss right here at Soldier Field against the Bears; a game in which the Panthers offense rolled up more than 500 yards of offense, outgaining the Bears by a full 225 yards! Match Carolina up against a +7.5 pointspread and we’re talking about a team that is 16-6 ATS in the first 22 games of the Newton/Rivera era. Quite simply, this pointspread is a notch or two too high.
The Bears are not a strong offensive team
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NFL Handicapper Free Play: San Diego Chargers at Cleveland Browns
10.28.2012 07:14 AM
ER Sports
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Submitted by ER Sports
San Diego
-3 at
Cleveland
O/U 41.5
Recommendation: Under
San Diego will battle an early start time plus unpleasant weather conditions in Cleveland today. Temperatures in the high 40’s are expected with rain, and more importantly winds up to 20 mph. The Chargers were already expected to have a conservative game plan after blowing a 24-0 lead at halftime in their last game against the Broncos, which included four Philip Rivers interceptions. The Chargers expect to pound the ball on the ground, and keep it simple with short passes in this contest. There’s no question the Browns have improved on defense with the return of Joe Haden at the cornerback position. With the infamous ‘bend but don’t break’ Dick Jauron as the Browns’ defensive coordinator, look for the Chargers to chew a ton of clock in this match-up. Meanwhile, the Browns will continue use a simple approach on the offensive side of the football as well
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Cleveland Browns
San Diego Chargers
Erin Rynning
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