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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Baltimore Ravens pegged for regression in 2013

06.24.2013     01:09 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Last week, I wrote about the Kansas City Chiefs, using them as the poster child for an NFL team that the betting markets expect significant improvement from in 2013.  This week, I’ll be writing about the Baltimore Ravens, using John Harbaugh’s squad as the poster child for a team the betting markets expect to regress significantly in the upcoming campaign.  Why do the markets disrespect Baltimore so much?  Read on to find out!

Let me start by clarifying exactly how the betting markets aren’t impressed with the Ravens heading into the start of training camp.  The numbers show it clearly.  The defending Super Bowl champs are lined as an 8.5 win team.  Eleven different teams are lined higher (Atlanta, Denver, Green Bay, Houston, New England, New Orleans, the New York Giants, Pittsburgh, San Francisco and Seattle; all lined at nine wins or more).  Chicago, Cincinnati, Dallas and Indianapolis are all lined in the same range (8.5 wins) as Baltimore.  Clearly, from a season wins perspective, the markets aren’t impressed with Baltimore, ranking them as a middle-of-the-pack ballclub.
It’s the same story for Read more


Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens Teddy Covers




MLB Handicapping: Quick Four-Max Notes on all 30 Offenses

06.24.2013     07:59 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

As promised, I’m back with updated numbers from the “four-max” approach of evaluating the volume and consistency of Major League offenses for those of you trying to handicap 5-inning propositions. They generally paint an accurate overall picture of offensive quality too since we’re looking at what teams do with their starting lineups against rotation pitchers on other teams.

I had planned on waiting to post until the first five innings were complete in the Texas/St. Louis game on ESPN…but that’s in a rain delay as I’m typing this. No reason to wait a couple of hours (or more) waiting for that to work itself out. Let’s jump into the numbers.

The keys:

*Only count runs scored in the first five innings

*Stop at 4 for any team in an individual game so volume isn’t polluted by superfluous runs against a guy who didn’t have anything, or against that guy and the lousy long reliever who replaced Read more


Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence




NBA Gambling News: LeBron and the Heat +250 to win next year's title

06.21.2013     11:59 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Everyone's favorite stat nerd Nate Silver says LeBron James has two more NBA Championships left in him. And not even 24 hour removed from their second straight title, the Miami Heat are even money to win the Eastern Conference and +250 to three-peat according to The Greek.


What seems safe to say is that you wouldn’t want to bet on James at even money. There are just too many things that can go wrong with a player’s career as he ages: injury or illness, early retirement, bad teammates or bad luck.

Even a team as strong as this year’s Heat began the season with only about a 30 percent chance of winning the title, according to the Las Vegas odds. That percentage happens to roughly match the historical likelihood of an N.B.A. team repeating as champion, which is 33 percent.





Tags: NBA Miami Heat




MLB Betting News: Wheeler makes debut for New York Mets

06.18.2013     06:51 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
NY Mets (Wheeler) at Atlanta (Maholm) -180 O/U 7

The New York Mets are ready to call up yet another highly touted prospect as 2009 first round draft pick Zach Wheeler makes his MLB debut tonight in Game 2 of a doubleheader in Atlanta. Wheeler has a big arm (see video) and posted strong numbers (68.2 IP, 61 hits, 73 Ks) in the non-pitcher-friendly environment of Las Vegas and the Pacific Coast League.


''I don't think I'm a savior at all,'' Wheeler said. ''We've got some great arms here, some great players. We might not be doing too well right now, but I know the talent of these guys. Hopefully we'll turn it around soon. I'm just trying to come up here and help the team any way I can.''





Tags: MLB New York Mets Atlanta Braves




NBA Finals Gambling: Breaking down the offshore and Las Vegas markets

06.18.2013     06:29 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
San Antonio at Miami -7 O/U 191

A quick look at what the offshore and Las Vegas scenes are offering for Game 6 of the NBA Finals. Every sportsbook is currently sitting with the Miami Heat -7 expect for Pinnacle who is a few cents off a -6.5 (-110). A few offshore shops are showing a slight lean towards San Antonio with +7 (-115). Totals wise, 191 is painted across the board offshore. And per usual, most of Vegas shops are a half point higher at 191.5. We're still waiting for the day when Vegas posts a total that is lower than what CRIS, Pinnacle, and Grande are offering. Fairly big discrepancy on the moneyline with offshore showing the Heat (who are obviously in a must-win situation) in the -320 to -340 range (Pinnacle -295, Grande -350). In Vegas, fan friendly Coasts and Stations have the Heat as high as -360 while other shops are -340 to -350.



Tags: NBA Miami Heat San Antonio Spurs




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: An in-depth look at the Kansas City Chiefs

06.17.2013     10:10 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
It’s never too early to start talking NFL. While the casual bettor may not pay attention until the start of the preseason in August, the wiseguys here in Vegas have already done their homework, ready to take advantage of early NFL betting opportunities as they present themselves over the next few months.

I’ve been waiting patiently for the NFL Season Wins market to mature, but that isn’t happening quickly – most of the notable offshores have not posted Over/Under win totals yet, leaving Vegas as the only active market right now. So, instead of writing about season wins over the next two weeks, I’ll be writing about two teams that set the tone for the entire market – the Kansas City Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens.

I’ve chosen the Chiefs and the Ravens very specifically, because those two teams are the best examples of what the market looks for when adjusting power ratings way up or way down from one season to the next. Why are the markets so high on Kansas City and so low on Baltimore to enter the 2013 preseason? Read on to find out. This week, I’ll take an in depth look at the Chiefs.

Kansas City Read more


Tags: NFL Kansas City Chiefs Teddy Covers




NBA Finals Betting Recap: San Antonio Spurs Surge Back Into Series Lead

06.17.2013     08:26 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

It was surely a team effort from the San Antonio Spurs Sunday Night. You could point to any individual and find a lot to sing about.

*Manu Ginobili had his “back from the dead” game after seeing Dwyane Wade do that for the Heat the last time out.

*Danny Green continued his unprecedented three-point shooting, nailing 6 of 10 from long range.

*Tony Parker ran the offense effectively…which was important tonight because San Antonio was being very aggressive in terms of attacking QUICKLY. Not fast break points, but…as Zach Lowe of Grantland  pointed out on twitter…by getting the ball into the post quickly. Parker was also 10 of 14 shooting.

*Tim Duncan wasn’t the star of the game…but he was 7 of 10 from the floor, grabbed 12 rebounds and blocked 3 shots.

As you know if you watched the game…all of that production came out of a team approach. It wasn’t a case of different guys trying to take Read more


Tags: NBA San Antonio Spurs Miami Heat Stat Intelligence




Poker pro plays for nearly five straight days

06.13.2013     08:32 AM     Printer Friendly
Poker pro Phil Laak decided to play for 115 straight hours. Some sort of record, right? Absolutely.


"Wow, 115 hours, I should have my head examined," said Laak, as the number appeared on the running clock on a laptop screen next to his seat at the Bellagio Hotel-Casino in Las Vegas. "I am definitely sick."





Tags: Poker




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Golden Nugget College Football Games of the Year

06.10.2013     07:54 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
As spring turns into summer here in Las Vegas and the NBA Playoffs wind down, the upcoming football season begins to attract more and more betting attention.  Last month we saw NFL season win totals hit the betting boards around town, drawing a significant initial flurry of heavy wiseguy money.   And this past Friday, we saw another clear sign that football is just around the corner, as the Golden Nugget released their lines on 250 College Football Games of the Year.

The Nugget has earned a reputation as the top place to bet on sports in downtown Las Vegas, but it’s not generally a hotbed of wiseguy betting activity.  That changes dramatically when they release their College Football GOY lines, as they’ve done for each of the last seven years.  The Golden Nugget sportsbook takes center stage as a destination location; the first place in Vegas to post college football game pointspreads. 

The Nugget made some changes this year in an effort to please and appease the Read more


Tags: College Football Teddy Covers




College Football Gambling: Golden Nugget GOY lines feature over 200 games

06.03.2013     01:44 PM     Printer Friendly
UPDATE

Here's a link to all of the college football games the Golden Nugget will offer for its Game of the Years lines – slated to be released this Friday at 1 pm PT (dime limits).





College Football Gambling: Golden Nugget GOY lines available next week

05.28.2013     12:28 PM     View Original Blog


Just a head's up. Las Vegas' Golden Nugget sportsbook will release its College Football Game of the Year lines on Friday, June 7, at Noon PT. In the meantime, here's a link to Read more



Tags: College Football



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, Ian Cameron, and Paul Stone. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Aug 20, 2014 01:45 AM.