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October

30

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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Using coach-speak in your handicap

09.02.2013     07:43 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Part of the standard handicapping mantra includes ‘checking the local papers’ and ‘watching the coach’s press conference’ in an effort to get quality information that the betting markets aren’t paying attention too.  Computer algorithms designed to beat pointspreads can’t and don’t handicap coach-speak.  Few bettors actually take the time to do their homework.  So ‘cappers who make and take the time to check local sources and press conferences can find legitimate edges that are overlooked by most others – good information.

There’s no dictionary to help you translate coach-speak into betting decisions.  And in all the years I’ve been writing about sports betting, I’ve never once written a how-to article on how to approach coaches quotes.  It’s time.

This past week, while doing my research for the upcoming college football games, I ran into a press conference from Skip Holtz.  Skip was a very successful coach at East Carolina and UConn, then a very unsuccessful coach at South Florida.  In 2013, Holtz is taking over at Louisiana Tech, now that Sonny Read more


Tags: College Football NC State Wolfpack ACC Louisiana Tech Bulldogs C-USA Teddy Covers




Sportsmemo Handicapper Teddy Covers co-hosting LV Sportsline this afternoon

08.30.2013     12:22 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Just a quick head's up. Sportsmemo Handicapper Teddy Covers will be co-hosting this afternoon's Las Vegas Sportsline show on ESPN 1110AM from 2-3 pm PT. The topic will of course be college football from a betting perspective.



Tags: College Football Teddy Covers Las Vegas




William Hill to run sportsbook at new Las Vegas casino

08.29.2013     12:27 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Las Vegas' SLS Hotel and Casino, which is slated to open in fall of 2014, will feature a William Hill sportsbook. The SLS will be built on the site of the old Sahara Casino which closed in 2011.


“Together we’ll create a sports wagering experience that’s best in class for the market and takes the traditional sports book model to a whole new level,” Rob Oseland, president of SLS, said in a statement.





Tags: Las Vegas




College Football Gambling Preview: Boise State Broncos at Washington Huskies

08.28.2013     12:46 PM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Boise State at Washington
Saturday, 7 pm PT - FS1
CRIS Opener:
Washington -5.5 O/U 52.5
CRIS Current: Washington -3.5 O/U 53
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Washington -0.5
Ian Cameron's Recommendation: Boise State

The Washington Huskies will play their first game in newly renovated Husky Stadium on Saturday night as they host the Boise State Broncos in a rematch of last year’s Las Vegas Bowl. Boise won that game 28-26 but failed to cover as 4.5-point favorites.

The Broncos will have quarterback Joe Southwick back for his second year as the starter. He started out slowly last year but gradually improved as the season progressed throwing for 2,730 yards on 66.8% completions and a 19-7 TD-INT ratio. He will have his top two receiving targets back in Matt Miller and Kirby Moore who combined for 102 receptions, more than 1,100 yards, and 6 TDs last season. They did lose their top Read more


Tags: College Football Washington Huskies PAC-12 Boise State Broncos Mountain West Ian Cameron




NCAA Football Betting Trends: Washington-Boise State rematch

08.28.2013     07:45 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Boise State at Washington -3.5 O/U 52.5

Not a huge sample size but worth noting: Home favorites facing teams they lost to in a bowl game the previous season are 7-1 SU but only 1-6-1 ATS. The margins are those eight games were 10, 3, 10, 4, 5, 3, 1, and 13. Saturday's Washington-Boise State game fits those parameters. The Broncos beat the Huskies 28-26 in the Las Vegas Bowl. UW is currently a 3.5-point home favorite.



Tags: College Football Washington Huskies PAC-12 Boise State Broncos Mountain West




College Football Handicapping: Estimated Power Ratings as of 8/26/13

08.26.2013     02:08 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

We’ve seen some early week line movements for the debut of college football in 2013 this Thursday. I’ve tweaked our estimated Power Ratings from a few weeks ago as a result.

The numbers you see below assume 3 points for home field advantage. I create a couplet for each game based on the market spread adjusted for home field (or, left alone in the case of neutral site games), then try to place that couplet on “the big board” scale. So…if a team is a 12-point favorite on a neutral field, I make sure those teams are 12 points apart…then try to figure out where they would logically sit in the big picture based on last year’s final numbers…offseason changes…early numbers in the “game of the year” stuff in Vegas for upcoming matchups…etc. If a team is a 12-point favorite at home, then I make sure those teams are 9 points apart.
 
(If you're wondering why I use a universal 3 points for home field Read more


Tags: College Football Stat Intelligence




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Identifying College Football ATS Outliers

08.26.2013     07:23 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
College football season kicks off on Thursday Night.  By Labor Day, we’ll have seen 88 teams play other FBS opponents and another 31 teams play FCS foes, available for betting at many top books on the extra games board.  How important are those Week 1 results when we project forward?  What about Week 2 and Week 3? Read on to find out!

Twenty-six college football teams were pointspread outliers last year.  Twelve squads hit 75% or better ATS.  Fourteen squads hit 25% or worse for the full season.  This falls within recent historical patterns – in every recent season, 20-25% of the teams are strong “bet on” or “bet against” squads.  If we broaden the base to 67% ATS wins or losses for the full season, it’s not unusual to see 35-40% of the teams in college football fall into those two categories.

So how do we identify these teams?  Most importantly, how do we identify them early in the season, before September is through, so we can take advantage of their success or ineptitude repeatedly before the market starts to catch up?

The top pointspread teams of 2012 were Fresno State, Read more


Tags: College Football Teddy Covers




College Football Handicapping: The impact returning starters has on the betting markets

08.22.2013     06:57 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Yesterday I talked about Phil Steele's impact on the betting markets. Today I'll discuss another factor that influences early season games and that's returning starters. Who is coming back is probably to first thing bettors look at when evaluating a team during the summer. And based on my experience, teams with "a lot" of returning starters get a lot more love in the betting markets than those with only "a few” returning starters. Before I begin note that there are many different definitions of “returning starters” but for the sake of argument, we'll use Phil Steele as our reference point since his publication is such a common fixture among the betting community. Keep in a mind, A LOT can happen over the course of three months and I've seen multiple examples where returning starter numbers in June were a lot different than in September.

I used the very arbitrary numbers of 17 or more and 10 or less when breaking down our returning starter "extremes." That gives us 31 Read more


Tags: College Football Andrew Lange




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: AFC Preseason News and Notes

08.19.2013     08:13 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Welcome to Teddy’s unique look at the NFL. During August, Teddy records every game, then watches every first half on Sunday, typing furiously on his laptop while giving you the key info that the box scores and game recaps simply don’t have. This week: AFC tidbits from the first two weeks of the preseason.

Cincinnati Bengals – Boy this team looks impressive; a potential Super Bowl sleeper in a conference that has no clear no. 3 behind Denver and New England to start the season. This was a top 10 defense last year, and looks even better this year, positively loaded with the addition of Super Bowl winner James Harrison from Pittsburgh. Harrison was run blitzing and making plays in the backfield, now the inside linebacker in a 4-3, a new position. Lots of blitzing, worth noting in preseason! The position battles here aren’t huge ones – a battle for the starting center job (Kyle Cook is the favorite to win it) and battles for the second and third receiver after AJ Green. No three-and-outs while Andy Dalton was on the field; he did a great job audibling out of bad situational play calls

Buffalo Bills Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




Vaccaro leaves William Hill for South Point

08.19.2013     06:26 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Longtime Las Vegas oddsmaker Jimmy Vaccaro recently left William Hill for a position at South Point. Vaccaro will be in charge of promoting SP's new mobile phone app.


“It’s obviously old school. It’s a very short conversation & a handshake,” asserted Vaccaro, who immediately left his position as director of public relations for William Hill sports books.





Tags: Las Vegas



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, Ian Cameron, and Paul Stone. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Oct 30, 2014 07:26 AM.