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College Basketball Free Betting Pick: Cal Poly Mustangs at Cal-Northridge Matadors
02.15.2012 12:29 PM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
Cal Poly -6.5 at Cal-Northridge O/U 130.5
Recommendation: Over
Despite playing at a super slow pace, seven of Cal Poly's 12 Big West games have topped 130 points. One of the reasons behind that is the lack of quality defenses. Only two teams (Long Beach and Riverside) allow less than a point per possession in conference play. And despite its label of being defensive minded, Cal Poly has really been nothing more than average at stopping Big West opponents (102.1 ppp allowed, 5th out of 9 teams). The Big West is split into teams that play fast (Long Beach, Fullerton, Irvine, Northridge and Davis) and teams that prefer a slower tempo (Santa Barbara, Poly, Pacific and Riverside). Against the "faster" teams, Cal Poly's games produced scores of 105, 140, 116, 147, 154, 132, 144 and 151. It was contests against the "slower" teams that have kept CP’s pace number low and their defense appearing respectable (game scores: 115, 113, 112 and 106). Northridge plays up-tempo and sports the worst defense in the league. And with the exception of the 100-54 loss to Cal Poly back in late January, the Matadors somehow, someway always find a way
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Tags:
College Basketball
Cal Poly Mustangs
Cal-Northridge Matadors
Andrew Lange
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College Basketball Betting Trends: Tennessee State's 2nd half domination
02.14.2012 01:35 PM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
I happen to stumble upon this tidbit with Tennessee State who has won seven straight and is currently in second place of the Ohio Valley Conference at 10-4. The Tigers have shown a strong trend of failing to show up early and playing out of their minds after the break. They've held a halftime lead in only seven of their 14 league games which has resulted in a dismal 3-11 ATS first half mark. But for whatever reason, TSU has played like gods in the second halves of these games, outscoring all but one of their 14 opponents by a combined tally of 610-484 – good for an amazing 12-2 ATS. That is an average second half score of 43.6-34.6. In the first half, they were outscored by a combined 46 points. Tonight, Tennessee State plays host to Jacksonville State. Play accordingly.
Tennessee State 1st Half/2nd Half Betting Trends as of 2/14/2012
Opponent
Halftime Score
TSU 1st Half ATS
Final Score
TSU 2nd Half ATS
Tennessee Tech
TSU 28, TTU 27
Loss
TSU 68, TTU 53
Win
Murray State
MSU 40, TSU 33
Loss
TSU 72, MSU 29
Win
Southeast Missouri
SEMO 35, TSU 30
Loss
TSU 75, SEMO 72
Win
Austin Peay
TSU 29, APSU 20
Win
TSU 77, ASPU 57
Win
Eastern Kentucky
EKU 38, TSU 32
Loss
TSU 91, EKU 85 OT
Win
Tennessee-Martin
TSU 26, UTM 25
Loss
TSU 72, UTM 59
Win
Eastern Illinois
TSU 29, EIU 23
Win
TSU 55, EIU 46
Win
Austin Peay
TSU 29, APSU 28
Win
APSU 69, TSU 63
Loss
SIU-Edwardsville
SIUE 24, TSU 17
Loss
TSU 52, SIUE 49
Loss
Morehead State
TSU 34, MOR 32
Loss
TSU 77, MOR 72
Win
Jacksonville State
JSU 39, TSU 22
Loss
JSU 72, TSU 65
Win
Tennessee Tech
TTU 42, TSU 36
Loss
TTU 92, TSU 86
Win
Eastern Kentucky
EKU 41, TSU 17
Loss
EKU 73, TSU 68
Win
Tennessee-Martin
TSU 41, UTM 35
Loss
TSU 83, UTM 67
Win
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Tennessee State Tigers
Andrew Lange
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NCAA Basketball Betting Tips: The value with totals remains with UNDERS
02.13.2012 02:09 PM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
It is pretty remarkable what the Virginia Cavaliers have been able to "accomplish" with their season-long trend of 3-16 O/U. It's not like oddsmakers and bettors aren't aware of UVA’s desires to play at a slow pace and put forth max effort on the defensive end of the floor (11-14 O/U last year). And teams which such strong identities – especially those who play in major conferences – don't often hold much value when their blueprint is so obvious. For example: North Carolina likes to run up and down and score points, yet the Tar Heels are 12-12 O/U this season. Same with Missouri (9-10-2 O/U), BYU (10-13 O/U) and UNLV (10-12 O/U). There are however some logical reasons why teams like Virginia who grind it out and play defense are able to consistently churn out Unders. For starters, a lot of bettors don't like playing games lined below 120 under the total – even though every Saturday features plenty of 56-49 type scores. Even when matchups feature two extreme Under squads, and oddsmakers can't help but post a 114.5 or thereabouts, you often see money come in on the Over – some feel that if one team gets hot, or the game is close and
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Andrew Lange
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Sunday College Basketball Free Play: Boston College at Virginia Tech
02.12.2012 07:49 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Boston College
at
Virginia Tech
-13 O/U 121
Recommendation: Under
Two teams that struggle to score and prefer to play at a moderate pace meet today with Boston College headed to Virginia Tech. Hokies head coach Seth Greenberg has said that he wants his team to run but the only games that were classified as "up-tempo" came against BYU, North Carolina and Maryland – three teams that don't mind getting up and down the floor. BC has made a habit of trying to shorten the game and for the most part it has worked with their last three game decided by 5, 4, and 4 – the last of which a home win over Florida State. Earlier in the year, the Eagles notched wins over Clemson and Virginia Tech. In those five aforementioned games, the scores were 116, 120, 107, 98 and 124. The last time these two teams met they combined for a rather high 40-of-56, 71% from the free throw line and that game still landed 120. Play this one under.
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Virginia Tech Hokies
Andrew Lange
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Saturday College Basketball Free Play: Tennessee Tech at Tennessee State
02.11.2012 08:20 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Tennessee Tech
+3.5 at
Tennessee State
O/U 145.5
Recommendation: Tennessee Tech
No one in college basketball is immune to letdowns and that includes the likes of Kentucky, Ohio State and on down to the little guys. Tennessee State just picked up the program's biggest win since...I don't have the time to research it but it was huge when they beat undefeated Murray State on the road. I knew Murray State was going to lose at some point and in reality, TSU isn't that far removed from the Racers talent wise, but to go up there on national TV and score a victory was an impressive feat – how often are Tennessee State kids highlighted on ESPN? The Tigers have now won six straight including back-to-back on the road and have just one day to prepare for any angry Tennessee Tech squad that just lost at home to bottom feeder Eastern Illinois. Head coach Steve Payne said after the game it wasn't a lack of effort, but instead just a really bad shooting
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Andrew Lange
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College Basketball Free Pick: North Texas at Florida International
02.09.2012 06:39 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
North Texas +2 at Florida International O/U 133.5
Recommendation: North Texas
Let's not let facts get in the way here: Isaiah Thomas is not a good leader of men when not donning a uniform and sneakers. Since arriving at Florida International, Zeke checks in at a dismal 25-59 SU. I’ve got to the window in support of FIU as an underdog, but in all three instances of being favored this season, they lost outright. Adding to the randomness of this program, of their seven wins this season, all but one came on the highway. Off back-to-back wins including a 20-point victory on the road over rival Florida Atlantic – arguably the most impressive win of Isaiah's brief tenure – this is a team that has FADE written all over it. North Texas is playing as well as anyone in the Sun Belt right now on a current 6-3 SU, 8-0-1 ATS run. The Mean Green's three losses came by 2, 2 and 3. This has been a wacky series with the underdog covering 12 straight and the road team eight for its last 10 ATS.
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Andrew Lange
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NCAA Basketball Betting Preview: Duke Blue Devils at North Carolina Tar Heels
02.08.2012 06:19 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Duke
at
North Carolina
-6 O/U 158
Quick breakdown of tonight's Duke-North Carolina matchup. Interesting to note that each of the last six meetings went under the total – none of which were lined above 157 and none of which finished with more than 152 points. So it seems rather logical that bettors took advantage of the super-high opening total that at one point last night was 160.5.
Things that favor North Carolina:
Defense. From Ken Pom to conference-only generic stats, the Tar Heels are the better defensive team. They rank second in the ACC in points per possession allowed (0.92) and first field goal defense (40.5%). Perhaps by design, ACC opponents score 34% of their points from three vs. UNC. You may lose a game or two if someone gets hot, but long term, that is a great philosophy to have. And strengthening that stat is that the Tar Heels allow just 43.8% from two-point range. All of those things that I just bragged about
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College Basketball Betting Free Play: College of Charleston at Appalachian State
02.04.2012 06:25 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
College of Charleston at Appalachian State pk
Recommendation: Appalachian State
A lot has occurred with College of Charleston over the last few weeks – so much so that I think its season is going to get a lot worse before it gets better. After starting 9-1, the Cougars dropped four of their last seven, but that was just the start. In a marquee matchup at conference leader Davidson, C of C was blasted 87-69. They followed that up with a road loss to an average Georgia Southern squad and then mysteriously lost back-to-back home games to Furman and Wofford laying -8.5 and -5.5 respectively. Prior to the Wofford game, unknown to everyone outside of the program, head coach Bobby Cremins decided to step away for health reasons. The Cougars managed to rally the troops with a solid road win at bottom feeder Samford but it was Thursday's effort that may be too much to overcome. C of C trailed Elon on the road by 17 at half but rallied back to force double overtime only to lose 99-98. Five players saw 36+ minutes of action including Andrew Lawrence who played the entire 50 minutes. Now they must turn right around and face an Appalachian State squad that
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College of Charleston Cougars
Appalachian State Mountaineers
Andrew Lange
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College Basketball Betting Free Play: Eastern Kentucky at Eastern Illinois
02.02.2012 09:41 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Eastern Kentucky
at
Eastern Illinois
-2.5 O/U 127.5
Recommendation: Under
Not sure why this total is getting bet up as both Eastern Illinois and Eastern Kentucky prefer to play at a slow pace and aren't particularly sharp when it comes to shooting the basketball. In conference play, EIU is averaging an awful 0.91 points per possession. EKU is better though the Colonels average about 63 possessions per game. Both meetings last year were lined in the low 120's and went under. And perhaps one of the strongest trends – unknown to most bettors – is that Eastern Illinois has gone under the total in 49 of its last 62 league games. Also, there is absolutely no reason why EIU should be favored by as high as -3 in this contest. Play accordingly.
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Eastern Kentucky Colonels
Andrew Lange
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Sunday College Basketball Free Play: Montana Grizzlies at Portland State Vikings
01.29.2012 07:35 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Montana
at
Portland State
+4 O/U 143
Recommendation: Portland State
Montana gets somewhat of a break by having two days in between conference road games but I still feel this is going to be a difficult spot for the Grizzlies. The second game of back-to-back road tilts is particularly tough in the Big Sky because schools are spaced out and they don't have the luxury of top notch travel. There are some great examples of letdowns in these situations: Earlier this season, Montana won at Northern Arizona and two days later lost by 16 at Weber State. Weber State, the best team in the Big Sky, won by 15 at Sacramento State on Thursday but turned right around and lost at 6-14 Idaho State yesterday. Montana State upset Portland State on Thursday and guess what took place on Saturday? The Bobcats lost by 17 at Eastern Washington. With only the top six teams in the Big Sky making the conference tournament, this is a very important game for Portland State (4-4). The
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Montana Grizzlies
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