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NFL Handicapping: Pace Factor through Week 3

09.23.2013     07:36 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Following up on our discussion from earlier this week, here are the play totals (runs, passes, accepted penalties, punts, field goal attempts) from Sunday afternoon NFL games (plus KC/Philly from Thursday). I’ll rank them from fastest paced to slowest paced. First, the boundaries we’ve seen so far in the first two weeks...

Fastest: 187 (Baltimore at Denver, with two fast teams in season opener)

Midpoint: 158

Slowest: 134 (Oakland at Indianapolis)

This Week

192: Buffalo at NY Jets (new high, Bills floundered fast, Jets a million penalties)

178: Cleveland at Minnesota (fourth fastest in NFL this season)

171: Kansas City at Philadelphia

169: Detroit at Washington

159: Tampa Bay at New England

157: Houston at Baltimore

154: Jacksonville at Seattle

152: Green Bay at Cincinnati

149: San Diego at Tennessee

149: Arizona at New Orleans (Saints continue to Read more


Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




College Football Betting News and Notes - Week 4

09.23.2013     07:21 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
It is usually Boise State who sits back and capitalizes on other teams' mistakes not the other way around. Friday's game against Fresno was one of the more sloppy games I've ever seen out of the Broncos yet they somehow covered the number (+3.5) and had a chance to win the game outright. Down 17-10 early in the second quarter, Boise scored a touchdown but failed on a mysterious two-point conversion (note that the final score was 41-40). Miss one two-point conversion and you're likely to go for two again at some point. Midway through the fourth quarter the Broncos cut the lead to 34-32 and had yet another failed two-point conversion. On their next drive they finally cracked the code and put eight on the board but it put them up only six. Fresno would score a touchdown with three minutes left to give them the 41-40 lead for good. All told, Boise was 1-for-3 on two-point conversions, 1-for-4 on fourth down conversions, and committed two turnovers. Happy to kick PATs, Fresno had no turnovers, was 2-for-2 on fourth downs, and moved to 3-0 on the season.

It is hard for serious bettors to be active in laying huge points because there are typically more factors involved than Read more


Tags: College Football Andrew Lange




College Football Betting Preview: Colorado State Rams at Alabama Crimson Tide

09.20.2013     10:47 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Colorado State at Alabama
Saturday, 4 pm PT - ESPN2
CRIS Opener:
Alabama -36.5 O/U 51.5
CRIS Current: Alabama -39 O/U 51
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Alabama -39.5
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Colorado State

I’m not a big fan of betting on the big ugly underdog in college football, but this situation is simply too good to ignore.  Alabama has been a pointspread juggernaut throughout the Nick Saban era in every role except one – as a 30+ point favorite over lesser competition. 

The Crimson Tide are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven tries in this pointspread range, including an 0-4 mark last year.  Coming off a HUGE win at Texas A&M with their SEC opener against Ole Miss on deck, I’m not expecting an inspired performance from this huge home favorite.

Colorado State head coach Jim McElwain got the job at Colorado State because of his success as Read more


Tags: College Football Colorado State Rams Mountain West Alabama Crimson Tide SEC Teddy Covers




College Football Betting Preview: Auburn Tigers at LSU Tigers

09.20.2013     07:13 AM     Alatex Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Alatex Sports

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Auburn at LSU
Saturday, 4:45 pm PT - ESPN
CRIS Opener:
LSU -14 O/U 57
CRIS Current: LSU -16.5 O/U 55
Rob Veno's Power Rating: LSU -19
Brent Crow's Recommendation: LSU

Auburn has used a very favorable schedule to get off to a 3-0 start under first-year head coach Gus Mahlzan. The Tigers’ victories have come against Washington State, Arkansas State and Mississippi State; none of which are anywhere near the class of this week’s opponent. The fast start has calmed down the Auburn fans after last year’s disaster under Gene Chizik. While three wins is definitely better than three losses, I am not sure there is much difference between this year’s team and last year’s group. The defense is still a big question mark as Auburn has allowed at least 400 yards of offense in all three wins to offenses that have been subpar otherwise. They were able to force three turnovers against Read more


Tags: College Football Auburn Tigers LSU Tigers SEC Brent Crow




Thursday Night Football Betting Recap: Six Turnovers doom Philadelphia Eagles

09.20.2013     06:52 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Three weeks into the Chip Kelly era with the Philadelphia Eagles…and we’ve seen one half of mostly scintillating stuff (coming against an opponent that may not have a pass defense), but then five halves that have reminded everyone why it’s so hard to win with fast break football at the professional level.

First Half of Game One: Philadelphia 26, Washington 7

Next 5 Halves Pro-Rated: Philadelphia 11, Opponents 16

That’s an extended run now that represents the equivalent of losing games 32-22 against 2.5 opponents that may not reach the postseason (though KC has a decent Wildcard shot after its 3-0 start).

The Eagles are 1-2, and apparently would be the fourth best team in the AFC West because they just lost home games to San Diego and Kansas City…and are way behind Denver in everyone’s Power Ratings. They do have moments where the Oregon-style attack is a thing of beauty. But, tonight saw:

*Michael Vick throw two Read more


Tags: NFL Philadelphia Eagles Kansas City Chiefs Stat Intelligence




College Football Betting: Will Wake Forest's under the total trend continue?

09.19.2013     07:10 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
For many teams across the nation, 25% of their season is already complete. Three weeks ago as fall practice sessions ended and teams began preparing for their season opening games, those of us who follow college football routinely had opinions set on all 126 FBS teams. Since teams only play 12 regular season games, the quarter pole has always been a time to proactively adjust to teams if need be or stay firm with initial judgments that were made. In this week’s article I’ll take a look at one team specifically from a totals perspective which has thus far performed differently than what the original outlook may have been.

It’s not that Wake Forest's schemes have turned into something we don’t associate with them. After all, this team has had the exact same on-field style for each of head coach Jim Grobe’s 12 seasons here. The difference right now is the extent to which their game scores have diminished. Through their first three games, Wake Forest totals have opened and closed as some of the lowest we’ve seen each week. To see closing totals of 51, 47.5 and 50 in this day and age can definitely be categorized as lower than average. Read more


Tags: College Football Wake Forest Demon Deacons ACC Rob Veno




College Football Betting Podcast 9-18-2013 with Handicapper Erin Rynning

09.18.2013     10:24 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Wednesday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicapper Erin Rynning. ER recapped Week 2 College Football (Big Ten, PAC-12).

Today's segments
Erin Rynning - CFB Week 3 Recap: Big Ten, PAC-12

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.



Tags: College Football Erin Rynning




College Football Betting Preview: Tennessee Volunteers at Florida Gators

09.18.2013     10:23 AM     Brian Edwards     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Brian Edwards

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Tennessee at Florida
Saturday, 12:30 PT – CBS
CRIS Opener:
Florida -15.5 O/U 48
CRIS Current: Florida -16.5 O/U 47.5
Rob Veno’s Power Ranking: Florida -16.5
Brian Edwards’ Recommendation: Under

Florida will be seeking its ninth consecutive win over Tennessee when these bitter SEC East rivals square off Saturday at The Swamp in Gainesville.

Most books opened Florida (1-1 straight up, 0-2 against the spread) as a 14.5-point favorite Sunday night. However, by late Wednesday morning, most shops had the Gators favored by -17 with a total of 47.5. Gamblers can take the Volunteers on the money line for a +600 return (risk $100 to win $600).

Will Muschamp’s team has had two weeks to shake off a gut-wrenching 21-16 loss at Miami as a three-point road favorite. UF nearly doubled up the Hurricanes in total offense but went down nonetheless due to five turnovers, Read more


Tags: College Football Tennessee Volunteers Florida Gators SEC Brian Edwards




College Football Handicapping: Estimated Power Ratings as of 9/18/13

09.18.2013     07:27 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Feel much better about how these numbers have honed in on the market. Many of last week’s numbers were very close to nailing this week’s openers (or first line moves off an opener). When they didn’t, it was due to a common-sense adjustment from a Saturday result, or an injury to a quarterback. Think we’re mostly there. Not all the way there, particularly in the bottom third where there seems to be more volatility (and less raw confidence from all involved)

If this is your first visit to the site…I’m trying to estimate college football “Power Ratings” as represented by the lines posted in the betting markets. These aren’t my personal opinions of teams. This is my estimate of how “the market” as a composite must be rating the teams based on the lines we’re seeing now and have been seeing recently. I start by creating couplets based on the line for each game, using 3 points of value for home field advantage. Read more


Tags: College Football Stat Intelligence




College Football Betting Preview: SMU Mustangs at Texas A&M Aggies

09.18.2013     06:50 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
SMU at Texas A&M
Saturday, 4 pm PT – ESPNU
CRIS Opener:
Texas A&M -26.5 O/U 82
CRIS Current: Texas A&M -28.5 O/U 79
Rob Veno’s Power Rating: Texas A&M -30.5
Andrew Lange’s Recommendation: Texas A&M 1st half

SMU can have all the bye weeks and time to prepare in the world and it still won't save them from getting beat up by Texas A&M. No question the Aggies are in a bad spot and as we saw last week with Michigan following the Notre Dame game, no one is immune to a letdown. But to me, there is a class and coaching difference that outweighs the situational.

In Week 1, which should have been SMU's Super Bowl as they were fortunate enough to host an in-state foe from a BCS conference, the Mustangs laid a big egg in a 41-23 loss to Texas Tech. Statistically the Mustangs were right there but the end result was nothing more than the Red Raiders Read more


Tags: College Football SMU Mustangs AAC Texas A&M Aggies SEC Andrew Lange



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, and Ian Cameron. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Apr 20, 2014 09:03 AM.