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College Basketball Free Play: Bradley Braves at Southern Illinois Salukis
01.24.2012 07:01 AM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
Bradley
+7 at
Southern Illinois
O/U 138
Recommendation: Bradley
Why on earth is Southern Illinois laying -7 in a conference game? I understand Bradley is not very good and the Salukis are coming off a 85-42 beat down at Wichita, but this number is in my opinion way too high. Situational aside, let's look at the facts: Both teams have faced similar league schedules and have nearly identical statistical profiles. They struggle to defend on a consistent basis and have no real edge in any facet of the game. SIU has managed to pick up a few more league wins and by default deserves to be favored, but I expected to see this game lined in the -3 range. SIU won the first meeting in Peoria but shot an uncharacteristically high 57% from the floor. Unless that type of effort occurs again, I think the road team can stick around and make this a game.
Tags:
College Basketball
Bradley Braves
Southern Illinois Salukis
Andrew Lange
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College Basketball Free Play: Arizona Wildcats at Colorado Buffaloes
01.21.2012 06:58 AM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
Arizona
at
Colorado
-1.5 O/U 127
Recommendation: Colorado
Arizona may be 4-2 in the PAC-12 but I haven't been impressed with what I've seen. The offense has a very difficult time getting open looks and it shows in the numbers vs. league opponents: 9th offensive efficiency, 8th effective FG%, 11th 2-point FG%. That's not going to get it done on the road vs. comparable competition on a consistent basis. Defensively, UA's numbers look fantastic vs. league opponents: 1st defensive efficiency, 1st effective FG%, 1st 3-point defense. But it is obvious those numbers are skewed some because the Wildcats have yet to face Washington, California, Stanford, Washington State and Colorado – five offenses that have the ability to score unlike Arizona State, USC and Utah. Colorado meanwhile has played a tough PAC-12 schedule when it comes to opposing offenses yet they surprisingly rank right behind Arizona in a bevy of defensive categories. The Buffaloes are more efficient on the offensive end and
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Tags:
College Basketball
Arizona Wiildcats
Colorado Buffaloes
Andrew Lange
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College Hoops Free Pick: Illinois Fighting Illini at Penn State Nittany Lions
01.19.2012 07:24 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Illinois
at
Penn State
+3.5 O/U 123.5
Recommendation: Penn State
It has been quite a turnaround for Illinois of late. Less than a month ago, this team had the look of a .500 team in Big Ten play. But three straight close wins, including a 79-74 victory over Ohio State has the Illini atop the league standings. The win over the Buckeyes was particularly intriguing because Illinois got 43 points from Brandon Paul and as a team shot 60% from the floor and 61% from three. Prior to that, Illinois was hard-pressed to shoot 45% in game. Regardless, off a monster win, and in first place...and with Wisconsin on deck, the Illini take a trip to face 9-10, 1-5 Penn State. The Nittany Lions are not a good basketball team, but they've shown me enough to think they could give Illinois some trouble. PSU beat Purdue on this floor by 20 and battled Indiana to a six-point loss. Note that Illinois may be 15-3 but winning by margin hasn't come easy. They beat Cornell by four,
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College Basketball Free Play: Maryland Terrapins at Florida State Seminoles
01.17.2012 06:08 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Maryland
at
Florida State
Recommendation: Maryland +6.5 1st half
Beating North Carolina at home wasn't that monumental of an achievement for Florida State – despite what the Seminoles’ student body showcased after the buzzer. However, hanging 90 on the Tar Heels in route to a 33-point victory is no doubt going to make FSU's players feel good about themselves. Letdowns happen all of the time in college hoops and the odds of that occurring to the Seminoles – for at least parts of tonight's game – are pretty good. I will say that of all of the potential letdown victims, it is the teams with elite level defenses which are typically the least susceptible – something that FSU without question has. The one thing the Seminoles don't have though is the ability to consistently knock down shots. Against a majority of the better teams on their schedule, the Seminoles failed to top 1.0 point per possession. Maryland is a different squad
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College Basketball Betting: Kentucky Wildcats struggle to cover pointspreads
01.16.2012 02:17 PM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Typically, the best teams in college basketball post against the spread records around the .500 mark. They obviously win a lot which is correlated with covering spreads but on the same token, the extra "tax" and attraction to bettors often keeps them from putting up great ATS numbers. Take last year from example. North Carolina (16-17 ATS), Duke (20-16 ATS), Kansas (18-17 ATS), Pittsburgh (15-14 ATS), Syracuse (15-18 ATS), Ohio State (18-16 ATS) and Kentucky (16-16 ATS) were all right around the .500 mark. There were some expectations, most notably UConn (23-12 ATS), but the Huskies came from way off the grid to go 10-1 ATS during the postseason.
But this year, something odd is taking place. Kentucky, which is considered to be one of the best teams in the country, is a horrific 3-13-1/4-12-1/4-13 ATS (depending on what numbers you go by). Based on one set of numbers I saw, the Wildcats haven't covered a game since November 19 – after starting the season 3-0 ATS. So why has Kentucky been such a poor spread team? No question, there is a tax tacked onto the Cats – but the same can be said about a lot teams. But unlike those teams, Kentucky is young,
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NCAA Basketball Betting Trends: 71% of Missouri Valley games have gone OVER the total
01.16.2012 01:12 PM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Building on the blog we posted the other day about the
increase in scoring
in the Missouri Valley Conference this season. The MVC has long been known as a grind-it-out league that on occasion sees a team or two willing to play up-tempo. Below is a chart of the team-by-team yearly pace rankings according to Ken Pom. As you can see, from 2008-10, the MVC's average rank was between 233 and 241. This season however, we've seen that number climb to 173 as half the league ranks 143 or higher. I think we'll see the overall pace numbers dip once these teams play more conference games which brings us to our next point. Amazingly, 25 of the MVC's 35 league games have gone over the total thus far. The only two teams to not trend towards the OVER in league play are ironically the league's two top offense, Creighton and Wichita State. And only one team (Drake, 6-9 O/U) has trended UNDER from a season long perspective.
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Saturday College Basketball Free Pick: Ole Miss Rebels at Auburn Tigers
01.14.2012 06:54 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Mississippi
at
Auburn
+1 O/U 124.5
Recommendation: Auburn
We are getting to that point of the college basketball season where we can start utilizing spot plays to our advantage. I see one today in the SEC that I am particularly fond of. On Wednesday, Ole Miss was in an ideal situation – at home, needing a win, facing an opponent off a amazing performance. The Rebels took care of business by beating Arkansas 71-63 to move to 1-1 in SEC play. Now they go on the road and are likely to get a pretty good effort from their opponent. Auburn has lost three games in a row including two to conference foes Vanderbilt and Kentucky. I watched their game against Kentucky and came away impressed -- the Tigers actual led in the second half and were tied with about seven minutes to go before Kentucky finally flexed its muscle. Personnel wise, I see little to no difference between Ole Miss and Auburn and feel the spot is prime for a Tigers victory.
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College Basketball Free Pick: Virginia Cavaliers at Duke Blue Devils
01.12.2012 01:33 PM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Virginia
+11 at
Duke
O/U 128
Recommendation: Virginia
If you run through Duke's scores against good competition this year you don't see a lot of double-digit wins. They beat Belmont by 1, Michigan State by 5, Tennessee by 10, Michigan by 7, Kansas by 7, and Washington by 6. Also noted are losses to Ohio State and Temple and a 7-point road win over Georgia Tech last time out. The Blue Devils did beat Davidson by 13 in Durham back in November – a game the Wildcats led at halftime. Obviously some of those games were on the road/neutral but at no point have we seen the Blue Devils roll over a halfway competent opponent. And that is exactly what they'll face tonight in Virginia. The Cavaliers don't go about it in a very exiting manner but they bring the type of defense we like to have when backing a double-digit underdog. And in watching UVA play this season, the offense is much improved. It doesn't necessarily show with more than a few offensive outputs in the
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College Basketball Free Play: Kentucky Wildcats at Auburn Tigers
01.11.2012 07:32 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Kentucky
at
Auburn
+18 O/U 135.5
Recommendation: Auburn
Even though Kentucky is a completely different team from a year ago, the make-up of the team is very similar – a load of talent and not a lot of experience. Going on the road with freshmen can be difficult on any team and Kentucky is no exception. Last season, the Wildcats went 2-6 SU on the highway in SEC play – a group that was two points from playing for the National Championship. Despite back-to-back horrendous road showings (29-point loss to Florida State and 30-point loss to Vanderbilt), I trust that Auburn is going to play much better at home against an opponent that won't be difficult to get up for. The Tigers weren't very good last season yet in SEC play, their home losses were by margins of 7, 5, 10, 13, 17 and 2. Over the past week we've seen both Georgia Tech (vs. Duke) and Illinois (vs. Ohio State) perform better than they have all season – at home vs. a top rated opponent. With
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College Basketball Betting Free Play: Maryland Terrapins at NC State Wolfpack
01.08.2012 07:29 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Maryland
+11 at
NC State
O/U 148.5
Recommendation: Maryland
I think when it is all said and done, the final season results of both Maryland and NC State won't be too dissimilar. The Wolfpack probably have a bit more talent but with the Terps adding a few pieces over the last few weeks, the difference isn't 11 points. Another part of my intrigue towards the underdog is that NC State cannot be trusted in the price range against comparable competition. I've watched this team multiple times this season and during the regular flow of the game, they look extremely good. But it all goes haywire when possessions start to mean something or they need a defensive stop. Maryland PG Pe'Shone Howard (broken foot) and center Alex Lin (eligibility) should be fairly settled in the rotation having played four and three games respectively. As a result, the Terps now have eight players who have averaged over 20 minutes per game of playing time. I don't think the betting markets
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