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October

30

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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: College Football Season O/U Wins

07.08.2013     10:26 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The college football betting market matures slowly over the summer months compared to the NFL betting marketplace.  We’ve had NFL Week 1 lines and College Football Game of the Year lines since May, both here in Vegas and offshore.  The NFL season win market wasn’t far behind, with most of the leading indicator sportsbooks standing knee deep in season win wagers by the second week of July.

But with 125 FBS teams on the betting board, the sportsbooks take more time doing their homework and research before posting a bevy of NCAA Football lines for the upcoming season.   The Golden Nugget was the first to market with their Games of the Year lines last month. 

The first college football season win numbers were posted offshore less than two weeks ago, with the 5Dimes sportsbook emerging as the global market leaders for 2013.  Here in Vegas, we’re not far away from heavyweights Cantor Gaming, the LVH Superbook and William Hill posting their first NCAA win totals.

College win totals are a very different animal compared to the NFL.  You don’t see many NFL pointspreads higher than -14, and even that is a Read more


Tags: College Football Teddy Covers




MLB Handicapping: Analyzing Offenses Over the Past Four Weeks

07.08.2013     08:19 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Because a lot of the “four-max” data that we’ve been presenting on Sunday nights has become fairly locked in halfway into the season, I wanted to focus instead today on what’s been happening the past month. There are some fairly established surges and collapses that you should be aware of if you’re reporting on baseball as a writer or betting on baseball in Las Vegas.

If this is your first time reading about the four-max approach (always some newbies popping in), here’s what we’re doing.

*Only recording offense in the first five innings

*Cutting off scoring at a maximum of four runs

*Tabulating full season averages from that 0-1-2-3-4 scale

This was started as a way to have a framework for handicapping “first half” betting propositions in the markets (you can pick the winner or bet Over/Unders for just the first five innings of baseball games). But, it was clear pretty quickly that the numbers Read more


Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence




NFL Handicapping: Notes on Power Ratings for the 2013 Season

07.05.2013     06:57 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

As we get closer to the NFL season, you’re going to see a lot of prediction articles in the mainstream and stathead media. The fact that Las Vegas now actively markets and publicizes their Regular Season Win Total propositions has certainly helped. Sportwriters and fans loved making predictions anyway. Now there’s an outline of expectations that people can refer too.

The stathead articles in this area all basically say the same thing over and over again. This has been true for years. I used to ghostwrite them myself…until it got boring just repeating the same things over and over again. The general themes are:
 
*Assume that turnover extremes will regress toward the mean

*Assume that records in close games will regress toward the mean

*Be skeptical of teams with bad point differentials who had decent records

*Be sure you know who played easy schedules and who played hard schedules

*Remember who had key injuries, and pencil in good Read more


Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




Sportsbook claims bettor won $16K on Bailey's no-hitter

07.03.2013     07:42 AM     Printer Friendly
Like any business, sportsbooks need to market themselves and a popular way to do it is to publicize big winning tickets. Last night, William Hill tweeted that someone bet $400 on the "Yes" for Will There Be a No-Hitter prop bet. The odds were 40-1. And we're sure you've heard by now that Cincinnati's Homer Bailey delivered the goods. According to WH, the bettor took home $16K. There is no sense is thinking this didn't occur, however, it wouldn't be the first nor the last time a sportbook's marketing department took advantage of a rare occurrence (see: here, here, here, and here).

copy_no_hitter.JPG



Tags: MLB Cincinnati Reds




MLB Gambling Notes: Cincinnati Reds Still Struggling vs. Quality Teams

06.27.2013     07:45 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

The Cincinnati Reds just got swept in a quick two-game series in Oakland, losing by a combined score of 12-3. That continues a trend we’ve been discussing on and off this season. The Reds have played very poorly (for a contender) against teams at .500 or better, while absolutely annihilating teams who are below .500.

Let’s run the numbers for the Reds and the other NL Central contenders for some context…

Records vs. .500 or Better

Pittsburgh 18-14

St. Louis 18-15

Cincinnati 15-26

Pittsburgh and St. Louis at least belong in the SuperLeague, even if they’re not dominating within the “best vs. best” matchups. The Reds are showing very poorly in comparison.

Records vs. Under .500

Cincinnati 30-8

St. Louis 30-15

Pittsburgh 30-16

This is why the Reds are in the divisional (and Wildcard) race. They’re doing a great job of taking Read more


Tags: MLB Cincinnati Reds Stat Intelligence




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Baltimore Ravens pegged for regression in 2013

06.24.2013     01:09 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Last week, I wrote about the Kansas City Chiefs, using them as the poster child for an NFL team that the betting markets expect significant improvement from in 2013.  This week, I’ll be writing about the Baltimore Ravens, using John Harbaugh’s squad as the poster child for a team the betting markets expect to regress significantly in the upcoming campaign.  Why do the markets disrespect Baltimore so much?  Read on to find out!

Let me start by clarifying exactly how the betting markets aren’t impressed with the Ravens heading into the start of training camp.  The numbers show it clearly.  The defending Super Bowl champs are lined as an 8.5 win team.  Eleven different teams are lined higher (Atlanta, Denver, Green Bay, Houston, New England, New Orleans, the New York Giants, Pittsburgh, San Francisco and Seattle; all lined at nine wins or more).  Chicago, Cincinnati, Dallas and Indianapolis are all lined in the same range (8.5 wins) as Baltimore.  Clearly, from a season wins perspective, the markets aren’t impressed with Baltimore, ranking them as a middle-of-the-pack ballclub.
It’s the same story for Read more


Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens Teddy Covers




MLB Handicapping: Quick Four-Max Notes on all 30 Offenses

06.24.2013     07:59 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

As promised, I’m back with updated numbers from the “four-max” approach of evaluating the volume and consistency of Major League offenses for those of you trying to handicap 5-inning propositions. They generally paint an accurate overall picture of offensive quality too since we’re looking at what teams do with their starting lineups against rotation pitchers on other teams.

I had planned on waiting to post until the first five innings were complete in the Texas/St. Louis game on ESPN…but that’s in a rain delay as I’m typing this. No reason to wait a couple of hours (or more) waiting for that to work itself out. Let’s jump into the numbers.

The keys:

*Only count runs scored in the first five innings

*Stop at 4 for any team in an individual game so volume isn’t polluted by superfluous runs against a guy who didn’t have anything, or against that guy and the lousy long reliever who replaced Read more


Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence




NBA Gambling News: LeBron and the Heat +250 to win next year's title

06.21.2013     11:59 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Everyone's favorite stat nerd Nate Silver says LeBron James has two more NBA Championships left in him. And not even 24 hour removed from their second straight title, the Miami Heat are even money to win the Eastern Conference and +250 to three-peat according to The Greek.


What seems safe to say is that you wouldn’t want to bet on James at even money. There are just too many things that can go wrong with a player’s career as he ages: injury or illness, early retirement, bad teammates or bad luck.

Even a team as strong as this year’s Heat began the season with only about a 30 percent chance of winning the title, according to the Las Vegas odds. That percentage happens to roughly match the historical likelihood of an N.B.A. team repeating as champion, which is 33 percent.





Tags: NBA Miami Heat




MLB Betting News: Wheeler makes debut for New York Mets

06.18.2013     06:51 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
NY Mets (Wheeler) at Atlanta (Maholm) -180 O/U 7

The New York Mets are ready to call up yet another highly touted prospect as 2009 first round draft pick Zach Wheeler makes his MLB debut tonight in Game 2 of a doubleheader in Atlanta. Wheeler has a big arm (see video) and posted strong numbers (68.2 IP, 61 hits, 73 Ks) in the non-pitcher-friendly environment of Las Vegas and the Pacific Coast League.


''I don't think I'm a savior at all,'' Wheeler said. ''We've got some great arms here, some great players. We might not be doing too well right now, but I know the talent of these guys. Hopefully we'll turn it around soon. I'm just trying to come up here and help the team any way I can.''





Tags: MLB New York Mets Atlanta Braves




NBA Finals Gambling: Breaking down the offshore and Las Vegas markets

06.18.2013     06:29 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
San Antonio at Miami -7 O/U 191

A quick look at what the offshore and Las Vegas scenes are offering for Game 6 of the NBA Finals. Every sportsbook is currently sitting with the Miami Heat -7 expect for Pinnacle who is a few cents off a -6.5 (-110). A few offshore shops are showing a slight lean towards San Antonio with +7 (-115). Totals wise, 191 is painted across the board offshore. And per usual, most of Vegas shops are a half point higher at 191.5. We're still waiting for the day when Vegas posts a total that is lower than what CRIS, Pinnacle, and Grande are offering. Fairly big discrepancy on the moneyline with offshore showing the Heat (who are obviously in a must-win situation) in the -320 to -340 range (Pinnacle -295, Grande -350). In Vegas, fan friendly Coasts and Stations have the Heat as high as -360 while other shops are -340 to -350.



Tags: NBA Miami Heat San Antonio Spurs



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