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NFL Betting: San Francisco 49ers favored five times in 2011
06.23.2011 07:01 AM
Printer Friendly
The San Francisco 49ers haven't made the playoffs in eight years – only Buffalo, Detroit and Houston have suffered longer droughts.
Jim Harbaugh is set to begin his first season
and has a lot of work to do in a limited amount of time. It appears that Alex Smith, though not officially signed, will be the team's starting quarterback. According to
Cantor's NFL preseason lines
, the 49ers are favored in five of their 16 games. The schedule rotation has them pitted up against the AFC North and NFC East.
“This is the start of a new generation,” GM Trent Baalke said when he hired Harbaugh. “What we have to do is bring back the culture of winning. He’s a guy who can lead the 49ers franchise
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NFL
San Francisco 49ers
Jim Harbaugh
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NCAAF Handicapping: Bettors not too confident in Florida Gators
06.21.2011 01:55 PM
Printer Friendly
One of the biggest questions bettors will be faced with heading into the 2011 season is what to make of the Florida Gators. Last season, after being gutted by the NFL draft (nine picks, six in the first two rounds), the Gators took steps back on both sides of the football (28 ppg, 23.3 ppg allowed in SEC play). The end result was an 8-5 overall mark including 4-4 in SEC play.
Urban Meyer decided it was time to step aside and Florida acted quick with the hiring of former Texas defensive coordinator Will Muschamp. Muschamp
went the NFL route
and hired Charlie Weis (Kansas City OC) to run the offense and Dan Quinn (Seattle DL) to run the defense.
Muschamp knows the SEC having played at Georgia and coached at Auburn and LSU. He was by all accounts the right hire but must hit the ground running and do so with limited resources. Muschamp already made his presence felt when he
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Tags:
College Football
Florida Gators
SEC
Will Muschamp
Charlie Weis
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NCAAF Handicapping: Publications release their Top 25 rankings
06.20.2011 10:02 AM
Printer Friendly
College football preseason previews have hit newsstands across the country. Most of which provide useful information to bettors – returning starters, quotes, schedule analysis, etc. The top 25 rankings (see chart below), often compiled by non-bettors, are pretty vanilla with most publications sticking to the common approach that teams who were good in 2010 will likely be the same in 2011. As bettors we know that isn't always the case as the 2010 versions of Texas and Florida can attest to. The betting market does a pretty good job of sifting through the BS and coming up with its own list of "top" teams but that doesn't mean that these publications don't have an influence. We've spoke multiple times that Phil Steele, one of the few that offer gambling info, can impact how some bettors think. That isn't always a bad thing as Steele is much more cognizant of the yearly ebbs and flows. Worth a look, fun to talk about, and perhaps a nugget or two worth using.
Bold
- Teams listed by only one publication.
2011 College Football Preseason Rankings
Rank
Sporting News
Athlon
Lindy's
Phil Steele
1
LSU
Alabama
Oklahoma
Alabama
2
Oklahoma
Oklahoma
Alabama
Oklahoma
3
Alabama
Oregon
Oregon
Boise State
4
Stanford
Florida State
LSU
Oregon
5
Oregon
Boise State
Florida State
Virginia Tech
6
Boise State
Notre Dame
Boise State
Notre Dame
7
Florida State
Virginia Tech
Oklahoma State
LSU
8
Ohio State
LSU
Stanford
Texas A&M
9
Texas A&M
Ohio State
Nebraska
Georgia
10
Nebraska
Nebraska
Arkansas
Florida State
11
Arkansas
Texas A&M
South Carolina
TCU
12
Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State
Virginia Tech
Nebraska
13
Virginia Tech
Stanford
Texas A&M
Arkasnas
14
Penn State
Georgia
Ohio State
South Carolina
15
Mississippi State
TCU
TCU
Ohio State
16
Northwestern
Arkansas
Georgia
Stanford
17
Michigan State
West Virginia
Wisconsin
USC
18
Notre Dame
Florida
West Virginia
Texas
19
South Carolina
Miami (FL)
Notre Dame
Oklahoma State
20
TCU
USC
Florida
Southern Miss
21
Auburn
South Carolina
Mississippi State
Houston
22
Utah
Michigan State
Michigan State
Arizona State
23
West Virginia
Wisconsin
Missouri
Wisconsin
24
Arizona State
Texas A&M
Auburn
Penn State
25
Wisconsin
Missouri
Arizona State
South Florida
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NCAAF Handicapping: The impact of returning starters in the betting market
06.06.2011 01:09 PM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
With college football right around the corner the prevailing theme over the next month will be returning starters. I went back over the last two years and compiled teams on the high and low ends of returning starters based on Phil Steele’s preseason numbers. Phil Steele’s CFB Preview can be a very beneficial tool (depth charts, schedules, ATS results, etc.) and it has also earned the reputation of influencing the betting market. Over the last two years, teams that welcomed 16 or more starters back finished 135-114 against the spread in 2010 and 196-175 against the spread in 2009 (pushes not included). Profitable results, but by no means earth shattering. But what stood out were the combined records of the first three games for those teams. In 2009, it was a losing proposition at 42-44 ATS and last season, similar results at 30-30 ATS. Because of how much information in now readily available, by the time the season rolls around, even the casual bettor has concepts etched in his brain. Team A is loaded
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Andrew Lange
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Bettors Beware: NFL could shorten season to eight games
06.06.2011 09:12 AM
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Imagine New England winning the AFC East with just five victories. That very well could happen with talks surfacing that the 2011-12 campaign will be
shortened to eight games
. The season reportedly would start in late November, allowing for five weeks of free agency as well as training camps and one preseason game.
Asked at the owners’ spring meeting last month about the league’s contingency planning, NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell said, “We have contingency planning for our contingency planning.”
The NFL, in a statement, said, “If and when it becomes clear that we cannot play the schedule as it was announced, we will make the appropriate adjustments with an eye toward minimizing changes.”
“You have to talk about there being a gap in the product on the field because players didn’t get
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MLB Handicapping: Indians with 10-game lead on White Sox and Twins
05.02.2011 11:56 AM
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FanGraphs attempts to figure out whether or not the Cleveland Indians (19-8) are for real. The Tribe's Season O/U Win Total was 71-71.5 heading into the season but they are currently on schedule for 114. The pace will undoubtedly slow over the next few weeks but it is pretty remarkable that in one month’s time, the Indians created a 10-game lead over preseason contenders Chicago and Detroit. According to FanGraphs, Cleveland’s offense is legit while the pitching (6.5% HR/FB rate, .272 BAbip) is
due for a decline
. One interesting stat: Against Baltimore, Kansas City and Seattle, Cleveland is 11-2. Garbage wins, right? Not necessarily. Those three teams are a combined 39-31, .557 against the rest of the league.
Their HR/FB rate is just 6.5% – only the Mariners are giving up fewer home runs per fly ball among American League pitching staffs. Additionally, their BABIP is .272, fourth lowest in the AL,
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Saturday MLB Free Betting Pick: Baltimore at Cleveland
04.16.2011 07:59 AM
Alatex Sports
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Submitted by Alatex Sports
Baltimore (Guthrie) at Cleveland (Tomlin) -105 O/U 8
Recommendation: Under
Both of today's starting pitchers are off to great starts in 2011. Baltimore’s Jeremy Guthrie was brilliant in his first two starts, allowing just nine base runners and one run in 14 innings. He dominated Tampa Bay to open the season and came back with a solid effort against Texas last week. Because the Orioles have been so bad, Guthrie has flown under the radar since coming over from Cleveland in 2007. In 123 career starts for the Orioles he’s posted a rock solid 4.00 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and better than 2:1 K:BB ratio. There aren’t a lot of American League pitchers who can lay claim a 4+ year stretch like that.
For Cleveland, Josh Tomlin has also turned in two solid starts after a decent rookie season in 2010. Tomlin had two quality outings against Seattle and Boston and will face a struggling Baltimore lineup that has yet to live up to its preseason hype. During their current five-game losing streak, the
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MLB
Baltimore Orioles
Jeremy Guthrie
Cleveland Indians
Josh Tomlin
Brent Crow
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NFL teases us with 2011 Preseason Schedule
04.13.2011 06:28 AM
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Is this a good sign or softening us up for the blow of having to bet on Sunday night WAC Game of the Weeks? The NFL has announced its
2011 Preseason Schedule
. Bears vs. Rams, Cutler, Bradford, NBC, August 7...hopefully.
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Orlando players ask for rest heading into playoffs
04.05.2011 07:50 AM
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Milwaukee at Orlando -8 O/U 180.5
With the No. 4 seed all but wrapped up, the Orlando Magic are faced with the dilemma of how they should play down the stretch. Certain teams want momentum heading into the playoffs, while others choose to preserve their health – something that is currently an issue for the Magic. Reports out of Orland say that various players, including Dwight Howard,
want a rest
, whereas head coach Stan van Gundy feels the team doesn't have enough experience
not to continue playing hard
.
"The Boston Celtics can get to Day One of the playoffs and turn it on," Magic coach Stan Van Gundy said. "They've been there before. They've won
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NBA
Orlando Magic
Milwaukee Bucks
Dwight Howard
Stan Van Gundy
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Sun Belt Tournament Betting Preview
03.03.2011 08:43 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
The Sub Belt Conference Tournament starts this Saturday with games taking place at both the Convention Center and Summit Arena in Hot Springs, Arkansas. Florida Atlantic and Arkansas State are the top two seeds, followed by UL-Lafayette and Middle Tennessee. The top four seeds all receive a first round bye. Only five teams finished with winning records in league play. Perennial heavyweights Western Kentucky and North Texas both struggled to .500 records. Amazingly only one team (MTSU) allowed less than a point per possession for the year while only three teams (FAU, FIU and NT) managed to average more than a point per possession on offense. Both divisions were fairly even this season with an even split 18-18 SU vs. one another. The East had the slight edge ATS going 20-15-1.
Who will emerge from the tournament is anyone's guess. Florida Atlantic put together the best resume but the Owls aren't familiar with success and struggled down the stretch. UL-Lafayette was the Cinderella story of the season. After starting 3-14 and
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Sun Belt
Andrew Lange
College Basketball
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