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Handicapper Alf Musketa's NFL and NCAAF Line Moves Report 9/18/2012
09.18.2012 08:18 AM
Alf Musketa
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Alf Musketa
Clemson at Florida State
Florida State opened -12 now -14
Clemson is getting no respect here as not only the market players but also early public money has come in on the Seminoles. In the Golden Nugget’s Game of the Year lines, FSU was -8 but now -14. Is this an over-adjustment? No. FSU has done nothing wrong and has destroyed its three opponents to date. To me, -12 was a weak line and a dead number and most certainly was going to be gobbled up by the market and some of those punters may not hedge any of their invest back.
Fresno State at Tulsa
Tulsa opened -6.5 now -5.5
This is not a move that is going to cause concern in the market place, but as a handicapper you must be aware that when a team (Fresno in this case) wins their last game 69-14, not too many bettors are going to fade that team. They are merely hoping to catch some points and anticipate that Fresno will repeat the great form they showed in their last contest. I call these players the one-dimensional underdog bettors and believe me there are hundreds out there. I only moved Fresno up a half point for that performance because it was against
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NFL
College Football
Alf Musketa
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NFL Betting Alert: Following loss of two D starters, bettors hit Washington total OVER
09.17.2012 02:20 PM
Printer Friendly
Cincinnati
at
Washington
-4 O/U 48.5
It was just announced today that Washington Redskins linebacker Brian Orakpo and defensive end Adam Carriker will both miss the
remainder of the season
due to injury. The betting markets are reacting to the loss of two defensive starters by betting Sunday's game against Cincinnati OVER the total. After opening 46.5, the game is currently 48.5 and headed higher.
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Washington Redskins
Cincinnati Bengals
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Teddy Covers' Wiseguy Report: A look at second-year NFL quarterbacks and their teams
09.17.2012 06:10 AM
Teddy Covers
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers
Last week, I focused on the five rookie starting quarterbacks behind center on opening day. This Sunday, continuing the theme, I spent the afternoon watching the five quarterbacks drafted in the first 35 picks last year, all of whom are now starters. I tried to evaluate each QB within the context of his team – they can't be successful without the complimentary pieces of the equation surrounding them, both on offense and on defense. Here are my thoughts:
Cincinnati Bengals
– Andy Dalton was the only rookie QB to lead his team to the playoffs last year, and he’s definitely right there with Cam Newton as the best of the 2011 draft class right now. He’s got great footwork in the pocket; nimble on his feet while sidestepping pressure. And when we consider how much pressure he was under – the Bengals injury riddled line was really struggling unable to consistently run or pass block – Dalton’s performance was even that much more impressive.
This team is loaded with WR talent; not just AJ Green, although Green is really developing into a Top 10 NFL receiver. Armon Binns made plays all over the field today;
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Teddy Covers
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College Football Gambling: QB situations at Purdue, Indiana and Utah impact totals
09.14.2012 01:44 PM
Rob Veno
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Submitted by Rob Veno
There are going to be quarterback changes for teams all season long due to either injury or ineffectiveness. Those switches will cause bettors and oddsmakers alike to adjust their stance on how much or how little impact the new quarterback will have on his particular team’s offensive point production. This week we are faced with three such instances and in this column I’ll take a look at how to react to each of them.
Indiana
– The Hoosiers lost the services of sophomore starter Tre Roberson last week in the second quarter of their game at Massachusetts. Prior to his season ending injury last week (broken leg) Roberson ripped off a pair of touchdown runs covering 50 and 39 yards giving him three rushing scores for the season to go along with his two passing TD’s. His impressive statistics were built on inferior defensive opponents but IU will certainly miss his dual threat ability to keep defenses honest. In for Roberson steps sophomore Cam Coffman who threw the ball very well during off season camp and he’s begun the regular season by going 16-of-22, 159 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT. HC Kevin Wilson’s up-tempo, spread
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Utah Utes
Purdue Boilermakers
Indiana Hoosiers
Rob Veno
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College Football Betting Alert: Missouri QB Franklin rumored to be out vs. Arizona State
09.14.2012 01:32 PM
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Arizona State
at
Missouri
-3.5 O/U 58.5
We've seen the Arizona State-Missouri line trickle down from -7 earlier today to -3.5/-3. The reason stems from rumors that Missouri quarterback James Franklin will miss the game due to a shoulder injury. Sports Options currently lists him as "questionable." Stay tuned.
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NFL Betting Stock Watch: Struggles could continue for New Orleans Saints
09.14.2012 11:40 AM
ER Sports
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Submitted by ER Sports
Sell the New Orleans Saints
– The Saints showed issues on both sides of the football last season, and with the continuing Bounty Scandal surrounding this team the “fade” sign is shining bright. This will be a season unlike any other as the Saints will obviously try to fight through 2012 without their head coach Sean Payton. Payton very much seems the lifeblood of the Saints since he lead them to the Super Bowl a few years ago. To make matters worse, their interim head coach Joe Vitt is also suspended for six weeks, as is General Manager Mickey Loomis for eight weeks. There’s so much that goes on behind the scenes in the NFL that losing that kind of manpower will undoubtedly take its toll on Sundays. Interim head coach Aaron Kromer is certainly in over his head and it showed last week as the Saints lost to the Washington Redskins 40-32. The Redskins scored on seven of their first eight possessions, while New Orleans’ offense tallied just 200 yards and 10 points through the first 50 minutes of the game. This was clearly a sign the Saints failed to prepare adequately in this contest. On the
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New Orleans Saints
Erin Rynning
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College Football Betting Preview: Alabama Crimson Tide at Arkansas Razorbacks
09.14.2012 07:46 AM
Alatex Sports
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Alabama
at
Arkansas
Brent Crow's Recommendation:
Arkansas
Saturday, 12:30 pm PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
Alabama -15.5 O/U 52
CRIS Current:
Alabama -20 O/U 54
Rob Veno's Power Rating:
Alabama -13.5
A week ago Alabama would have been a seven-point favorite in this game, but after Arkansas imploded in last week’s 34-31 loss to UL-Monroe, the Crimson Tide are now nearly three touchdown road chalk in an SEC game. Arkansas quarterback Tyler Wilson got hurt last week and is questionable for this week’s game, but this pointspread may be an overadjustment. Wilson has practiced this week, but head coach John L. Smith said that he has not been cleared to play and the decision is not in his hands. Wilson will play if he is cleared by team doctors, and with him practicing this week, I expect to see him on the field.
The bigger concern for Arkansas may be its defense. The Hogs have allowed 50
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Brent Crow
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NFL Betting Preview: Baltimore Ravens at Philadelphia Eagles
09.14.2012 06:59 AM
Alf Musketa
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Baltimore
at
Philadelphia
Alf Musketa's Recommendation:
Philadelphia
Sunday, 10 am PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
Philadelphia -3 O/U 43.5
CRIS Current:
Philadelphia -2 O/U 46
Rob Veno's Power Rating:
Philadelphia -1
The Eagles are the situational play here. We've seen it in many sports, when things go your way, and you get the bounces, the following game they tend to revert to the norm. The Ravens certainly had everything go well for them against Cincinnati benefitting from three turnovers and one of them a 31-yard interception returned for a touchdown. Their energy level was sky high hosting the first Monday Night Football game of the season and now must play on the road with a short work week at Philadelphia. The Eagles will have an extra day to prepare and will use that time to correct the Week 1 mistakes that were glaringly obvious to any handicapper. Aside from five turnovers, they ran an amazing 88 plays at
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Philadelphia Eagles
Alf Musketa
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NFL Handicapping: Arizona Cardinals will start Kolb vs. New England
09.13.2012 12:14 PM
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Arizona
at
New England
-13.5 O/U 48.5
The Arizona Cardinals said that Kevin Kolb will start Sunday's game at New England. According to
ESPN
, this information came from "league sources" and team president Michael Bidwell, not head coach Ken Whisenhunt. Maybe Whisenhunt is trying to do his best Bill Belichick impression or maybe he spotted Kolb's horrific track record on the road (3-6, 64.8 rating, 6 TDs, 10 INTs) and wants to weigh all of his options. The problem is he doesn't have many with John Skelton out because of an ankle injury.
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NFL Gambling Preview: New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers
09.13.2012 11:20 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
New Orleans
at
Carolina
Teddy Covers' Recommendation:
Lean towards Over
Sunday, 10 am PT - FOX
CRIS Opener:
New Orleans -3 (+101) O/U 51
CRIS Current:
New Orleans -3 O/U 51
Rob Veno's Power Rating:
New Orleans -3.5
Not much went right for either of these two teams in their season opener. The Saints defense was picked apart by a rookie QB making his first NFL start; giving up 40 points and 464 yards (a whopping 6.5 yards per snap), unable to stop the run or the pass in Steve Spagnuolo’s first game as the coordinator. Meanwhile, Drew Brees completed less than half of his pass attempts while throwing a pair of interceptions, after throwing only four INTs in his final eight regular season games last year. The Saints gave up on the run rather quickly in a game they trailed from the get-go, with Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram combining for only 32 yards on ten rushing attempts.
Carolina, too, was gashed by
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Carolina Panthers
Teddy Covers
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