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College Football Gambling Pick: Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Baylor Bears
11.26.2011 07:24 AM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
Texas Tech
+13 vs.
Baylor
O/U 80
Recommendation: Texas Tech
Remember when Texas Tech upset Oklahoma earlier this season? They next time out the Red Raiders lost at home by 34 as 15.5-point underdogs. In fact, they've played only one competitive game since. Last week, Baylor joined the party and took down the Sooners on the strength of Heisman candidate Robert Griffin. It was the Bears' first-ever win in 21 tries over the Sooners. Today's game will take place at Cowboys Stadium in Dallas and Baylor closes out the regular season next week at home against another high profile team it doesn't have much of a track record against in Texas. Texas Tech is still going to need to show up for this one. Last week, we finally saw some fight from this bunch in a four-point loss at Missouri. At 5-6, the Red Raiders obviously need a win to go to the postseason. For how dynamic Baylor can be, let's not forget that this isn't a very good defense. In fact, in conference play, Texas
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Tags:
College Football
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Baylor Bears
Big XII
Andrew Lange
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College Basketball Free Play: Harvard Crimson vs. Florida State Seminoles
11.25.2011 10:01 AM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
Harvard
vs.
Florida State
-2.5 O/U 127
Recommendation: Florida State
Harvard is a good basketball team with a lot of experience. But they don't have a lot of experience playing top flight competition and more importantly, top flight defenses. Florida State lost some key contributors from last year but the Seminoles have a defensive system that works year in a year out. In 2010 and 2011, FSU ranked No. 1 in defensive efficiency and through four games, more of the same as last time out, the Seminoles held UMass to 53 points and 28% from the floor. Amazingly, FSU, which doesn't have a great offense, shot 35% from the floor and won by 20. Harvard is going to have more success than the Minutemen, but they are going to need to shoot 45% or higher from the floor as well as knock down a handful of threes in order to stick around in this one. It can happen but I'll side with the far superior defense in this matchup.
Tags:
College Basketball
Harvard Crimson
Florida State Seminoles
Andrew Lange
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College Basketball Free Play: UW-Milwaukee Panthers at Michigan State Spartans
11.23.2011 12:23 PM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Wisc-Milwaukee
at
Michigan State
-13 O/U 129.5
Recommendation: Over
Michigan State has said that it wants to run more this season and through the first four games, each outing featured 70 possessions or more. They've haven't produced many big scores but the schedule had a lot to do with it. The game against North Carolina was played on an aircraft carrier which gave no chance for either team to feel comfortable offensively. Against Duke, it was a sloppy game with 36 turnovers but 74 possessions and 135 points. The last two times out, MSU played non-competitive games against Texas Southern and Arkansas-Little Rock – two bottom feeder teams that are extremely weak offensively. Tonight's opponent Wisconsin-Milwaukee shows some great defensive numbers because the competition has been awful (NIU, IUPUI, Texas Southern). The Panthers have always been a team that tends to play to the pace of their opponents. Last year against up-tempo teams
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NCAA Basketball Betting Preview: Portland Pilots at UC Santa Barbara Gauchos
11.22.2011 12:36 PM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Portland
+13.5 at
Cal-Santa Barbara
O/U 136
Recommendation: Portland
I understand that Portland lost a handful of key players from last year's team but I still trust the program and they've shown me enough to give them a look tonight at Santa Barbara. Last year, the Pilots beat the Gauchos 75-63 as 3.5-point favorites. The core group of that UP has since graduated but the line adjustment to me is massive. Portland opened the season with two solid wins against Florida Atlantic and Georgia State and playing its third game in as many days, simply didn't have the horses to hang with up-tempo Washington. On Sunday, they struggled shooting the ball (40% FGs) and fell to Washington State at home. UCSB returns four starters and showed well in its only DI game, an 89-56 home win over Santa Clara. It appears that performance has bumped up the Gauchos' price tag a bit. Last year, USCB finished 8-8 in the Big West and outscored those opponents by a miniscule
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College Basketball Early Start Free Play: Winthrop Eagles vs. Drexel Dragons
11.21.2011 08:54 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Winthrop
vs.
Drexel
-6.5 O/U 120
Recommendation: Under
You'd be hard pressed to find a worse combo of poor offensive teams than Winthrop and Drexel. In four games, the Eagles have shot 36.2, 39.2, 42.1 and 40.5 percent from the floor. Their 60.5 ppg average was boosted when Marquette ran them out of the gym and the game produced 71 possessions. Drexel opened the year with 80 points against Rider. It looked promising at the time but Rider's defense has been awful, allowing over 80 ppg on the season. Since then, the Dragons have produced 56 and 35 points in two games. Combined, the Dragons shot 36-110, 32.7% from the floor and 6-34, 17.6% from three. Even with Drexel primed for a better offensive showing, the pace of this game is expected to be slow – somewhere around 60 possessions. Early start for both teams could also produce a sluggish start. The betting markets are always leery of letting games dip below 120, but I just don't see much potential for
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College Basketball Free Betting Pick: Arkansas State Red Wolves at Ohio Bobcats
11.20.2011 07:47 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Arkansas State
+11 at
Ohio
O/U 135
Recommendation: Arkansas State
Arkansas State got a butt chewing from head coaching John Brady following a blowout home loss to Missouri State. The Red Wolves followed it up with a solid effort against bottom feeder UT-Martin. ASU is one of the most vanilla teams around and they have a tendency to keep a majority of their games close. Twenty of their 32 games last year were decided by 10 points or less. And taking it a step further, of their 15 losses, 12 came by nine points or less – and that included contests against Memphis, Ole Miss and Georgia. Ohio will have more speed and talent in this contest but the Bobcats don't play much defense and have a tendency to lose interest with big leads. They needed overtime to beat Lamar – Lamar beat Arkansas State by three. Ohio then held a 19-point halftime lead against UT-Martin but ended up winning by only nine. Seems like the type of game where the ugly underdog can
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College Basketball Handicapping Notes for 11/18/2011
11.18.2011 12:49 PM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
A quick breakdown of tonight's college basketball card.
Ball State has beaten Indiana State two straight times. Billy Taylor's squad showed well at Arizona and has steadily improved on offense the last two years. I grade out the Sycamores as the better team though and lean that way at the current number of -6.
Youngstown State is a team I have check marked though not in this price range. We saw the line dip down to -3.5 but was immediately bet back the Penguins' way. Riverside has some experience and beat YSU by 2 last season.
Expect a fast pace in tonight's Arkansas-Houston game. With the total nearing 150 though, it becomes not only an issue of pace but also shooting. Neither team is particularly efficient which kept me off of the over at this price.
Arizona State is not a good team and points are once again going to be tough to come by. They are also struggling with being asked to play at a faster pace. Asking kids to take quicker shots after playing stall-ball is a tough transition – especially when no one can shoot. New Mexico's preseason expectations and past domination over New Mexico State may have gone to their heads as the
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College Basketball Betting Preview: Stanford Cardinal at UC Davis Aggies
11.18.2011 10:04 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Stanford
at
UC Davis
Recommendation: Under
I watched most of the Stanford-Colorado State game the other night. While the Rams looked to get out in transition, the Cardinal was having none of it. In the second half especially, every Stanford possession featured 5-6 passes and a look towards the post. Stanford's point guard was constantly putting up his arms as to say; let's make sure we run a play. UC Davis has a new head coach, Jim Les. He comes over from Bradley where his teams were typically moderate pace-wise and played solid defense. Four games in, and it is clear to Les that running up and down the court and not playing defense is no way to be successful. In reading some quotes on Tuesday's effort against UC Santa Cruz, it looks as if there are going to be some personnel changes.
"We have to change some habits," Les said. "We've got a lot of guys who are concerned about their offense. To me, to have success at this level,
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College Football Betting Preview: New Mexico State Aggies at BYU Cougars
11.17.2011 11:37 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
New Mexico State
+22.5 at
BYU
O/U 60.5
Recommendation: New Mexico State
I've backed New Mexico State on multiple occasions this season and had fairly good results. The Aggies are much improved across the board and have been competitive in nearly all of their games this season. They have two competent quarterbacks in Matt Christian and Travaughn Colwell and enough of a run game (141.2 ypg) to keep opposing teams honest. BYU may be 7-3 but can hardly be considered an elite level team. Last week they crushed Idaho 42-7 but the Vandals were off a rare victory and showed absolutely no effort from the opening whistle. The Cougars are back with Jake Heaps at quarterback after Riley Nelson was hurt last game. They are both essentially the same player (Nelson more of a runner) in terms of production but the constant shuffling has created inconsistency and lack of continuity with the offense. And prior to the win over Idaho, BYU hadn’t posted a blowout win despite a
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NCAAB Handicapper Free Play: UT-Martin Skyhawks at Arkansas State Indians
11.17.2011 08:00 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Tennessee Martin
at
Arkansas State
Recommendation: Arkansas State -5 1st half
It was an embarrassing performance by Arkansas State last time out as it snapped a 13-game home winning streak in a 77-46 loss to Missouri State. Head coach John Brady was to but it lightly, not a happy camper in the
postgame press conference
. The Indians are a capable team that won the Sun Belt West Division last year. But after a 0-2 start, there is an obvious sense of urgency for this group. That is where UT-Martin comes into play. The Skyhawks are one of the worst teams in DI. They won just seven games last year and all of them came against non-DI or lower-tier OVC teams. They were pounded by Louisville in their opener and trailed Ohio by 19 at half before the Bobcats quit and limped to a nine-point victory. I expect to see
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