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MLB Handicapping: Milwaukee's hacking ways could spell doom

05.01.2014     09:14 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Good article on the potential regression in store for the Milwaukee Brewers. For starters the pitching has been tremendous, particularly the bullpen with an MLB-best 2.71 xFIP. The starting staff has been strong as well with a 3.01 ERA but also the league's third-lowest BABIP at .261. But it isn't just the pitching that is expected to cool off. Offensively, Milwaukee has put up league average numbers which is actually impressive considering they sport the 29th lowest walk rate in the league at 6.4%. Only Seattle is worse and the Mariners are 11-14 while the Brewers are 20-8. You can get by with the free swinging approach a little easier in the National League but history says teams with low walk rates don't fare well for an entire season.




Tags: MLB Milwaukee Brewers




Sports Betting Podcast 4-30-2014 with Handicappers Sammy P and Teddy Covers

04.30.2014     10:15 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Wednesday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured Sportsmemo Handicappers Sammy P and Teddy Covers. Sam broke down all three NHL Playoffs games and Teddy talked NBA Playoffs and MLB.

Today's segments
Full Show

Sammy P - NHL Playoffs

Teddy Covers - NBA Playoffs and MLB

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.




Tags: NHL NBA MLB Sammy P Teddy Covers




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins

04.30.2014     08:17 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Atlanta (Harang) at Miami (Eovaldi) +100 O/U 7
Recommendation: Miami


Just about every advanced metric stat in existence tells us very clearly that Aaron Harang’s MLB leading ERA is just a mirage; a hurler primed to return to earth following an exceptional April.  Harang has held opponents to a .143 batting average and his .409 opponents OPS is the best in baseball.  He’s the first pitcher since Pedro Martinez back in 1997 to allow a single run or less while lasting six full innings or more in each of his first five starts.  And Aaron Harang is no Pedro Martinez!

The advanced metric stats show us how lucky Harang has been.  Opponents’ batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is just .200, an unsustainable number.  Harang has an 89% strand rate, another unsustainable number.  His xFIP of 3.77 is a looooong way off from his 0.85 ERA.  And he’s put up those stats despite the lowest ground ball rate of his career, in large part Read more



Tags: MLB Atlanta Braves Miami Marlins Teddy Covers




MLB Betting Notes: Oakland's plate approach causes Texas fits

04.30.2014     08:12 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Oakland (Chavez) -110 at Texas (Ross) O/U 8

No question a lot of the concepts behind Moneyball are dated but one that remains effective is taking pitches and working counts and few teams do it better than the Oakland A's. On Monday, Oakland ran Yu Darvish up to 83 pitches in 3.1 innings. They did the same thing last night against the previously unhittable Martin Perez who coughed up eight runs and walked three batters in 4.2 innings. Both games resulted in easy wins for the A's. Expect the same patient approach tonight against Robbie Ross who as a converted reliever appears to have a pitch count ceiling of around 100.


“So far they are showing us they make adjustments,” catcher Robinson Chirinos said. “Yesterday they did it with Darvish; today with Martin. This is what

Read more



Tags: MLB Oakland A's Texas Rangers




MLB Handicapping: More teams using defensive shifts

04.30.2014     08:00 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Good article from Sports Illustrated's Tom Verducci on the rising popularity of defensive shifts in MLB.


"It's working," said Houston general manager Jeff Luhnow, whose team deploys more shifts than any club in baseball. "We feel confident the evidence is very convincing when we analyze how we use our innovative defensive alignments. We believe our data shows we're on the right path."



 




Tags: MLB




MLB Handicapping: Kansas City Royals continiue to just hack away

04.29.2014     01:21 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Yesterday, we posted a blog about the Minnesota Twins and their newly adopted philosophy of taking pitches. Despite having arguably the worst starting pitching staff in the American League, the Twinkies are currently a game over .500 (12-11) and have made a decent chunk of change (+5.25 units) for their backers. On the complete opposite side of the spectrum is the Kansas City Royals. KC has great starting pitching but they don't take pitches (.314 OBP, 63 walks) and in fact, have a very bad habit of swinging at pitches outside of the strike zone. As a result, KC is right at .500 at down nearly -2 units YTD. The sample size is small, and we know the Royals are the better of the two teams, but while the betting markets are so heavily fixated on starting pitching, things like plate approach can provide added value when betting on or against teams. 




Tags: MLB Kansas City Royals




Sports Betting Podcast 4-29-2014 with Handicappers Teddy Covers and Erin Rynning

04.29.2014     11:05 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Tuesday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured Sportsmemo Handicappers Teddy Covers and Erin Rynning. Teddy broke down all three NBA Playoffs games and ER rolled through the entire MLB card.

Today's segments
Full Show

Teddy Covers - NBA Playoffs

Erin Rynning - MLB EGOTB

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.




Tags: NBA MLB Teddy Covers Erin Rynning




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Oakland A's at Texas Rangers

04.29.2014     08:32 AM     Sammy P Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Sammy P Sports

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Oakland (Kazmir) at Texas (Perez) -110 O/U 8
Recommendation: Under


The Oakland A’s square off against the Texas Rangers tonight in the second game of their three game series.  Oakland won the first game on a brilliantly pitched 4-0 shutout last night.  We should see much of the same from two of the most dominate lefties in the American League so far this season.  Oakland's Scott Kazmir and Texas's Martin Perez have both been unhittable on the hill to start the 2014 campaign.  Perez sports a 0.00 ERA and hasn't given up an earned run in 26 innings!  Kazmir has a miniscule 1.35 ERA over 20 innings this season. They also rank among the league leaders in groundball percentage which is a big key pitching in Texas. We've already seen this total get bet down to 8 from an 8.5 opener. There is still value in this number with both of these starters on the mound.  Read more



Tags: MLB Oakland A's Texas Rangers Sammy P




MLB Handicapping: Texas' Perez on fire thanks to change-up

04.29.2014     07:10 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Oakland (Kazmir) at Texas (Perez) -110 O/U 8

Typically when you see a starting pitcher's velocity dip it isn't a good thing but Texas' Martin Perez has actually thrived of late despite an average fastball of less than 90 mph. One of the reasons is the emergence of a change-up; a pitch batters are currently hitting .074 against. Perez hasn't allowed a run in three consecutive starts and faces Oakland for a second straight time after last Wednesday’s complete game shutout.


“The last time, he wasn’t throwing as hard as when we previously saw him,” Melvin said. “But he was moving around better and had late movement on his pitches that kept the ball off the barrel of the bat.”







Tags: MLB Texas Rangers Oakland A's




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks

04.28.2014     10:23 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Colorado (Morales) at Arizona (Miley) -125
Recommendation: Arizona 5-inning


Going to trust what I see with my eyes where Arizona’s Wade Miley is concerned and pencil him in for a solid start here. Miley’s stuff has not been a problem through the opening month of the season but at times his location has as evidenced by his 16 walks allowed in 36 innings. On his side is the fact that Miley is a pitcher who generally stays down in the zone and on April 6th held the Rockies to just 10 total bases in eight innings which is the best performance by any opposing starter in Coors Field this year. Overall, Miley has had the Rockies number throughout his career going 7-0 against them. As is seemingly always the case, Colorado’s offense has been dramatically different on the road thus far posting a .246 BA as opposed to .347 at home, and OBP of .298 compared to .398 and an OPS difference of .664 away/.987 home. Expect Miley to control them here and rely on his offense to give him Read more



Tags: MLB Colorado Rockies Arizona Diamondbacks Rob Veno



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, Ian Cameron, and Drew Martin. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Apr 19, 2015 02:02 PM.