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MLB Gambling Notes: Boston's Doubront back after making adjustments

05.16.2013     06:48 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Boston (Doubront) at Tampa Bay (Cobb) -137 O/U 8

After skipping a start and making some mechanical adjustments, Boston's Felix Doubront is back on this hill this evening in Tampa. Doubront was fairly effective his first four starts (23.1 IP, 20 hits, 29 Ks, 13 BBs) but fell apart his last two (9 IP, 23 hits, .489 BAA). His velocity in those starts was significantly down which suggests the problems could be arm related. We recommend taking a wait-and-see approach.

"Figure out little things in my mechanics that help me to stay in line, to stay repeating my delivery and throw more strikes down in the zone," Doubront said. "That kind of helps. ... Just feel confident on the mound. Like I said repeat and repeat. That's going to help when everything is going to come back and feel more confident than before."

Tags: MLB Boston Red Sox Tampa Bay Rays

MLB Handicapping: Greinke returns after broken collarbone

05.15.2013     10:53 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Washington (Detwiler) at LA Dodgers (Greinke) -140 O/U 6.5

Just over a month removed from breaking his left collarbone, Zach Greinke is back on the hill. Originally slated to miss eight weeks, Greinke is reportedly good to go after throwing 80 pitches in a recent rehab start.

"He feels like he's ready," manager Don Mattingly said ( "His stuff kind of tells us he's ready. He wants to pitch."

"I'm sure there's a lot of risk every day," he said ( "If it makes sense, you do it. If I didn't feel ready, I wouldn't do it. If it was 50/50, you don't do it. I say it's well worth the risk we're taking. If everyone in baseball had the same feeling I have, everyone would be playing. It's nothing superhero-ish. If you felt what I feel, you'd do the same thing."

Read more

Tags: MLB Los Angeles Dodgers Washington Nationals

MLB Gambling Free Pick: New York Mets at St. Louis Cardinals

05.15.2013     10:47 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
NY Mets (Marcum) at St. Louis (Miller) -210 O/U 8
Recommendation: Over

"It's definitely the best game I've thrown in my life.”  That was Cardinals rookie Shelby Miller’s quote following his truly dominant 13 strikeout, one hit complete game shutout over the Rockies in his last outing.  But Miller matched his career high in pitches thrown in that contest; and it’s only the second time all season he’s averaged less than 16 pitches per inning. Coming off the "best game of his life", I’m expecting significant ‘regression to the mean’ from Miller this evening.

Mets starter Shaun Marcum is an even stronger bet against candidate this evening.  Since starting the season on the DL, Marcum has failed to make it out of the fifth inning in any of his starts, with an 8.59 ERA and a whopping .400 batting average against.  Mets manager Terry Collins: “I think Shaun tried to hurry through the rehab and get up Read more

Tags: MLB New York Mets St. Louis Cardinals Teddy Covers

Sports Betting Podcast 5-15-2013 with Handicappers Ian Cameron, Erin Rynning, and Alf Musketa

05.15.2013     10:13 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Wednesday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicappers Ian, Erin Rynning, and Alf Musketa. Ian and Erin broke down the entire MLB card while Alf talked tonight's two NBA Playoff matchups as well PGA and UFC.

Today's segments
Full Show

Ian Cameron - National League

Erin Rynning - American League (Free Play)

Alf Musketa - NBA Playoffs, PGA, and UFC

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory

Tags: MLB NBA PGA Ian Cameron Erin Rynning Alf Musketa

MLB Betting Notes: Seattle's Iwakuma off to a strong start

05.15.2013     07:25 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Seattle (Iwakuma) at NY Yankees (Hughes) -120 O/U 7.5

Good article on the emergence of Seattle's Hisashi Iwakuma. In eight starts, Iwakuma sports a 1.74 ERA with 51 strikeouts and only eight walks. We'd expect him to regress some moving forward (51.2 IP, 30 hits, .198 BABIP) but his success isn't a total fluke considering his vast array of pitches and control.

Tags: MLB Seattle Mariners New York Yankees

MLB Handicapping: Using historical data to bet on baseball

05.14.2013     02:09 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Great article on FanGraphs about how past batter vs. pitcher results are poor indicators of how to predict the future – in part because both entities change over time. One example in play tonight is Seattle's decision to put Raul Ibanez at DH despite the fact that he's lefty and CC Sabathia eats lefties for dinner (.167 BAA). It is a similar argument to (insert pitcher) sports a (insert bad ERA) at (insert stadium) despite the fact that said pitcher hasn't thrown there in three years and 85% of the lineup that crushed him is gone. They OWN him, man!

Tags: MLB New York Yankees Seattle Mariners

MLB Gambling Free Play: San Francisco Giants at Toronto Blue Jays

05.14.2013     11:29 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
San Francisco (Zito) +123 at Toronto (Dickey) O/U 9
Recommendation: San Francisco

It’s not hard to make a case for betting against the Blue Jays as chalk these days.  High priced offseason acquisition RA Dickey hasn’t won a game in nearly a month, allowing 17 runs in 25 innings of work over his last four outings, all Toronto defeats.  Dickey was favored in three of those four losses, just as he is today.   For a guy who was 43-55 with an ERA well over 4.00 prior to last season’s remarkable Cy Young campaign, the 2012 season is looking more and more like an aberration, not a sign of continued success to come.

Toronto has no discernible home field edge right now, 7-12 at the Rogers Centre compared to their 8-12 road mark.  From a run differential standpoint, the Blue Jays -47 ranks as the third worst in all of baseball, ahead of only the two true bottom feeders: Miami and Houston.  In other words, there is absolutely nothing Read more

Tags: MLB San Francisco Giants Toronto Blue Jays Teddy Covers

Sports Betting Podcast 5-14-2013 with Handicappers Sammy P, Erin Rynning, and Teddy Covers

05.14.2013     10:09 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Tuesday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicappers Sammy P, Teddy Covers, and Erin Rynning. Sam talked NHL Stanley Cup Conference Semifinals while Teddy and Erin went through every game on the MLB card.

Today's segments
Full Show

Sammy P - NHL Playoffs

Teddy Covers - National League

Erin Rynning - American League (Free Play)

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: NHL MLB NBA Sammy P Teddy Covers Erin Rynning

MLB Betting News: New York Yankees turning a profit despite injuries

05.13.2013     02:14 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Last season, the New York Yankees won an American League-high 95 games. From a betting perspective, they were profitable but not by much at a shade under +4 units (Baltimore won 93 games and was +36.8 units). In one of the more shocking and under-the-radar stories thus far in 2013, the Yankees are the second most profitable team in the American League at about +9 units (heading into today). The reason of course is that you could fill out an entire roster with who is on the DL. And it isn't just the raw number but more so the names: Rodriguez, Nova, Youkilis, Teixeira, Granderson, and Chamberlain. Yet despite that, the Yankees have, dare we say it…betting value! Just check out the viewership of Yankee games this season. No one is watching! And no one is betting them either because last year the average price on New York was around -145. This season? A dirt cheap -112.

Tags: MLB New York Yankees

MLB Handicapping: Starting pitchers and unsustainable numbers

05.13.2013     12:06 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
We're far enough into the MLB season that we can start to look at starting pitchers with unsustainable numbers. BABPIP has long been a tool of grading the lucky from unlucky. There are some exceptions – ex. Detroit's pitchers typically have higher BABIPs because of poor defense whereas Tampa's BABIPs have historically been lower than the league average of .300 because of better than average defense. The league average left-on-base percentage in right around 70%. Matt Moore is a damn good pitcher but his 96.1% will inevitably go down. Last year's top mark, from teammate Jeremy Hellickson, was 82.7%. ERA-FIP difference is another good tool – Jeremy Guthrie's ERA is 2.28 but his FIP is 4.60 which indicates he's been more fortunate than good. Max Scherzer's ERA is 3.61 yet his FIP is 1.88 which indicates he's been stellar with what he can control – most notably the art of missing bats (11.6 K/9). Lastly is HR/FB ratio. Baltimore's Wei-Yin Chen's groundball rate is a ridiculously low 31.5% yet only 4.5% of fly balls resulted in home runs. Keep in mind Chen allowed 29 homers last season so we can expect balls to leave the yard with more frequency moving forward. Keep Read more

Tags: MLB Andrew Lange


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