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January

23

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NFL Handicapping: So-so performances by 0-2 teams in Week 3

09.28.2015     07:52 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
A quick look back at how the nine 0-2 teams performed in Week 3. The end result was 5-4 SU/ATS. All told, not one of the nine teams, including those who won and covered, really played all that well. Four teams remain winless heading into Week 4: Baltimore, Chicago, Detroit, and New Orleans.

Indianapolis - Trailing 27-14 late in the third quarter, the Colts rallied back for the 35-33 win at Tennessee but failed to cover as -3 favorites.

Baltimore - Outgained by over a yard per play, the Ravens couldn't hold on to a 24-21 lead as Cincinnati punched in the game-winning touchdown with two minutes remaining in the fourth quarter. Big red flag as Andy Dalton threw for 383 yards and 12.0 yards per attempt.

Seattle - After tough back-to-back road games, the Seahawks cruised past Chicago 26-0. Note that it was a 6-0 game at halftime.

Detroit - The Lions couldn't run the football (28 yards, 1.5 ypc) or hang on to it (3 turnovers) in Sunday night's 24-12 loss to Denver.

Philadelphia - It wasn't pretty as the Eagles were outgained 4.3 ypp to 3.4 ypp in Sunday's Read more



Tags: NFL




NFL Handicapping: Baltimore to take shots in passing game vs. Oakland

09.18.2015     08:10 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
A week removed from producing only 117 yards in the passing game, the Baltimore Ravens are looking to open things up against Oakland. And you'd be hard pressed to find a better opponent to do so against as the Raiders allowed Cincinnati's Andy Dalton to post one of the best stat lines of his career in Week 1: 25-of-34, 269 yards, 2 TDs.


"I can understand the frustration. Even some of the offensive players ourselves, we're leading the protests of having a better offense," Ravens wide receiver Steve Smith Sr. said Thursday. "I got my pitchfork, too, saying that we need to be better. I understand that. We're right there side by side with the fans. We understand their frustration."






Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens Oakland Raiders Cincinnati Bengals




NFL Gambling Preview: Balitmore Ravens at Denver Broncos

09.11.2015     07:07 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Baltimore at Denver
Sunday, 1:30 pm PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
Denver -4 O/U 52
CRIS Current: Denver -4.5 O/U 48.5
Recommendation: Under

Few teams in the NFL have changed their expected gameplan as much as the Denver Broncos here in 2015.  Last year, Denver spent the majority of the season in a quick strike, pass heavy offense.  Denver ranked among the top five teams in the NFL, averaging 6.0 yards per play.  Peyton Manning threw for more than 4,700 yards, completing 39 touchdown passes and more than 66% of his throws.  Meanwhile, the Broncos defense was riddled with key injuries, forcing them into ‘Offensive Shootout’ mode on a fairly regular basis.

But Manning’s arm strength clearly declined down the stretch last year and new head coach Gary Kubiak and his staff have made it very clear – they’re going to be a run first offense this year with CJ Anderson and Ronnie Hillman getting the lion’s share of carries.  Manning is not expected to stretch the field with his arm.  We’re going to see a concerted effort to keep Read more



Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens Denver Broncos Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Power Ratings 1-32

09.07.2015     08:57 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The NFL regular season starts on Thursday.  Here’s how I have the 32 teams ranked heading into the campaign, with a quick blurb each squad.

1. New England Patriots - With Tom Brady set to open the season as the starting quarterback, the defending champs are the team to beat, worthy of my #1 ranking heading into the regular season.

2. Seattle Seahawks - Seattle enjoyed the best yards-per-rush differential between offense and defense last year, but they’ve got significant offensive line question marks as they head to St Louis for Week 1.

3. Green Bay Packers - The Packers passing game was second to none in the NFL last year, but the loss of Jordy Nelson leaves Aaron Rodgers without his top target for the entire season.

4. Indianapolis Colts - Most elite contenders face a tougher than average schedule because they’ve got to face other contending teams.  Indy, however, plays only four games against playoff teams from last year.

5. Denver Broncos - Peyton Manning is the oldest starting quarterback in the NFL by a wide margin, and he’s coming off a season where his arm strength noticeably declined down the Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




NFL Preseason Gambling: Ravens dealing with offensive line injuries

08.28.2015     07:09 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Despite a slew of injuries across its offensive line, the playing time for Baltimore's starters won't be impacted according to head coach John Harbaugh. The Ravens (-4) play host to Washington on Saturday night.


“I think if something happens in the game, it possibly could [have an affect], but the way we’re going into the game, to start the game, we’re comfortable with the guys we have playing on the starting offensive line,” Harbaugh said Wednesday. “They’ll do a great job.”

“Lord willing, we’ll have enough to play,” offensive coordinator Marc Trestman said Tuesday, only half-joking. “And I say that with great sincerity and hope that we’ll get enough guys that we can play. But we have enough, and we’re excited for them.”






Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens Washington Redskins




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Preseason Week 2 Betting Recap

08.24.2015     08:14 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
In the NFL Preseason, when coaches almost never play for a late game tie to force overtime, there’s an enormous difference between laying -1 and -2.5.  Games decided by final margins or 1 or 2 points are relatively rare once September rolls around.  In August, they are commonplace.   Three games were decided by a single point this past weekend, in Week 2 of the preseason, with the Bills beating the Browns 11-10, the Chiefs beating the Seahawks 14-13 and the Panthers beating the Dolphins 31-30.

Both Kansas City-Seattle and Carolina-Miami produced a win, loss or push based on betting skills, not handicapping skills, with lines on both games moving up throughout the course of the week.   In addition, the Patriots pulled off the comeback of the weekend to beat New Orleans 26-24, a two point margin.  Meanwhile, there was only one game finishing with a final margin of three points; the Chargers 22-19 win at Arizona. 

It was a similar story in Week 1, with more games finishing with 1 or 2 point final margins than games that were decided by exactly three points.   With two more weeks of these meaningless Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Preseason Week 1 Betting Recap

08.17.2015     08:03 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Week 1 of the NFL Preseason is behind us.  The NFL season win totals futures markets are already reacting to what we’ve seen, showing some modest movement off the successes and failures of the first and second string units.  We can expect that initial line movement to continue unabated if we see more of the same from those units in Week 2.  In this week’s Wiseguy Report, I’ll take a quick tour around the NFL, specifically focusing on any misleading stats or under-the radar performances from the 16 games that we just saw.

Let’s start with a brief overview of the results.  It was a strong Week 1 for the betting favorites.  There were three games that closed right around pick ‘em with no chalk to speak of: KC at Arizona, Washington at Cleveland and Miami at Chicago.  Of the 13 games that closed with a legitimate favorite of at least -1 or higher here in Las Vegas, the favorites dominated to the tune of 10-3 ATS (counting Jacksonville -1.5 as a win in their two point victory over Pittsburgh).  All three underdogs that covered won the game in SU fashion (Carolina beat Buffalo, Green Bay won at New England and Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: How to bet NFL Season O/U Wins Part II

08.10.2015     10:17 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Last week in this space, I looked back at last year’s final NFL standings and discussed the impact of strength of schedule models on those results.  I differentiated between mainstream widely available numbers for the 2014 strength of schedule (simply adding up wins and losses for every opponent) and my own formula, relying on power rating numbers from the week that the game was played. 

The goal was simple -- getting more accurate numbers to properly assess last year’s results in strength of schedule context as a starting point for 2015.

We’re done with last year now. This week, I’ll focus on the 2015 NFL strength of schedule as they relate to season win totals.  Once again, my goal is to differentiate between the mainstream numbers and the meaningful ones.

Google ‘2015 NFL Strength of Schedule’ and you’ll find countless charts exactly like this one.
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (.579)
2. Cincinnati Bengals (.563)
3. Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Las Vegas




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: How to bet NFL Season O/U Wins Part I

08.03.2015     10:33 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
When looking at the entirety of the NFL futures market, Super Bowl odds and odds to win divisions or conferences only give bettors one choice – betting ON a particular team.  Then that team has to beat out all of their competition to win the division/conference/Super Bowl for you to cash, offering the potential for big payday longshot returns, but cashing a low percentage of the wagers that are made.

NFL Season O/U Win totals, on the other hand, offer bettors the opportunity to bet AGAINST teams in relatively low juice situations.  And with win totals, even when betting Overs, the team you are betting on doesn’t have to win anything big. 

For example, the Buffalo Bills didn’t win their division last year; unable to get past mighty New England.  They didn’t win the AFC or the Super Bowl.  But they cashed every Over ticket that was bet on their season win total before December rolled around.  Buffalo’s 9-7 campaign offered a no sweat positive return-on-investment for a squad lined at 6.5 or 7 wins prior to the season.

In my opinion, NFL win totals remain among the most profitable set of wagers Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Las Vegas




NFL Handicapping: Baltimore keeping same offensive philosphy under Trestman

07.28.2015     07:41 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
With Gary Kubiak taking over in Denver, the Baltimore Ravens brought in former Chicago head coach Marc Trestman to serve as offensive coordinator. According to Trestman, the Ravens' offense will stay the same. Baltimore ranked 12th in total offense (364.9 ypg), 13th in passing (238.7 ypg), and eighth in rushing (126.2 ypg) last season. 


“It’s never going to be my offense. It’s always going to be the Ravens offense,” Trestman said Wednesday during his introductory conference call.

“I think the framework and the formula for this is for me to go in and learn the offense. … Why would I have 40-some guys learn a new offense when I’m just one person? Isn’t it easier for me to learn it instead of starting over with everybody else, including coaches?”






Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens



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