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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Bettors gear up for Super Bowl XLVIII

01.27.2014     08:14 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
It’s Super Bowl time again; the moral equivalent of Christmas Day for sports bettors. Yet many of the professional full time bettors that I know are rather disappointed with the proposition betting opportunities this year – there’s simply not much low hanging fruit. The biggest and best sportsbooks (market leaders both here in Vegas and offshore) have learned from previous mistakes. Bad numbers do NOT abound in 2014.

Let me start with the game itself. The Super Bowl itself has been an underdog bettor’s paradise in recent years.  The Ravens won the Super Bowl last year as the underdog, beating the favored 49ers. The Giants won the year before as an underdog; knocking off the Patriots. In 2010, the Saints won straight up as a dog over Peyton Manning and the Colts. In 2009, the Cardinals covered the spread in a tight loss to the Steelers. In 2008, the Giants beat the favored 18-0 Patriots outright. The only favorite to win and cover in the last six Super Bowls was the Packers when they beat the Steelers in 2011.

The underdog trend in the Super Bowl goes back even further than that, with four consecutive dog covers from 2002 through 2005 Read more


Tags: NFL Denver Broncos Seattle Seahawks Super Bowl XLVIII Teddy Covers Las Vegas




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: A trip down Super Bowl memory lane

01.20.2014     07:15 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
On the one hand, the Super Bowl is just another game for a professional bettor.  On the other hand, the Super Bowl has two major differences.  First and foremost are the prop bets; quite literally hundreds of wagering opportunities that allow bettors to wager from everything on the coin toss and the length of the national anthem to whether Russell Wilson will throw more touchdown passes than Manchester United will score goals on Super Bowl Sunday.  I’ll write about those next week.

The other biggest difference between Super Bowls and other games?  Simple – the Super Bowls stand out in our memories; every one of them.  I’ve been in Vegas since the 1998 football season, and I can tell you where I watched every Super Bowl, what the pointspread was and who covered. Thank you in advance for indulging me a brief trip down memory lane.

My first Super Bowl in Las Vegas was when the Broncos faced the Falcons as favorites of about a TD back in January 1999.  I watched the game in the stadium seating at the Imperial Palace racebook.  My handicap was simple, thinking Denver had a big edge having played in (and beaten) the Read more


Tags: NFL Denver Broncos San Francisco 49ers Super Bowl XLVIII Teddy Covers




NFL Handicapping: Week 17 Playoff Scenarios

12.27.2013     07:10 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
A semi-detailed look at Week 17's playoff scenarios. Heading into Sunday there are four playoff spots still yet to be determined.

NFC: Seattle, Carolina, and San Francisco are in. If the Seahawks beat St. Louis they have homefield advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. If the Seahawks lose and San Francisco beats Arizona, the 49ers would win the West (and earn the top seed if Carolina loses). If both teams lose and Carolina beats Atlanta, then the Panthers are the top seed.

As for the rest of the NFC, Dallas at Philadelphia and Green Bay at Chicago are win-and-in matchups. New Orleans earns a wild card berth if it beats Tampa Bay. The Saints can also win the NFC South if Carolina losses. Arizona needs to beat the 49ers to go along with a Saints loss.

AFC: Denver, New England, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, and Kansas City are in. The Broncos are the top seed if they beat Oakland. If they lose and the Patriots beat the Bills, the Pats are the no. 1 seed. If the Pats lose and Cincinnati wins, the Bengals would move into the no. 2 slot. The Colts can move to no. 2 with losses by New England and Cincinnati. KC is already locked Read more


Tags: NFL




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Playoff bound, but Super Bowl XLVIII bound?

12.23.2013     07:23 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Last year, heading into Week 17, Atlanta was the team to beat in the NFC, having already clinched homefield advantage with their 13-2 (at the time) record.  Washington was the hottest team in the conference and Green Bay was considered very live for the title, with Aaron Rodgers just one year removed from his Super Bowl ring.  In the AFC, the playoff were expected to be an eventual battle between the Patriots and Broncos, with the other four teams (Baltimore, Cincinnati, Houston and Indy) largely considered to be fodder for the elites; non-factors.

What happened? A San Francisco-Baltimore Super Bowl, won by the Ravens; their third straight postseason win as an underdog.  Let’s not forget that Baltimore entered the playoffs in the midst of a late season 1-4 SU and ATS skid; a team that NOBODY expected to make noise in January and February.

In 2011, in the NFC, Green Bay was the unbeatable juggernaut with a 15-1 record as the defending champs, and the Saints weren’t far behind, just one year removed from a Drew Brees Super Bowl ring.  Meanwhile, the Giants were on the outside of the playoff picture, needing to beat Dallas just to get Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Super Bowl XLVIII Las Vegas




NFL Handicapping: Brady wants offense to play at faster tempo

12.19.2013     07:58 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
New England at Baltimore -2.5 O/U 44.5

A couple of quotes from New England quarterback Tom Brady about potentially picking up the pace against the Baltimore Ravens.


“Maybe we should do it more often,” Brady said on Wednesday, after the team’s first practice of the week in advance of their final regular-season road game, Sunday at Baltimore. “I just think we’re trying to figure out what we think is best to do to help us win. It just hasn’t really required that. But we go fast plenty of times, in those two-minute situations where we’ve done a good job.”

“To run three plays and punt really quickly doesn’t do you any more good than running three plays and huddling and all that, and [then] punting. Ultimately we have to score enough points and that Read more



Tags: NFL New England Patriots Baltimore Ravens




NFL Gambling Preview: Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers

12.05.2013     01:26 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Miami at Pittsburgh
Sunday, 10 am PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
Pittsburgh -3.45 O/U 41.5
CRIS Current: Pittsburgh -3 O/U 40.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Pittsburgh -4
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Under

Both the Steelers and the Dolphins are fundamentally flawed football teams, yet both remain very ‘live’ in the AFC Playoff picture.  The 6-6 Dolphins are currently tied with Baltimore for the #6 seed in the AFC, while the Steelers rank just one game behind with four left to play.  That being said, neither team can like their chances if they lose this week.  We should expect a maximum intensity playoff-level showdown as a result.

The Steelers chances took a real blow last week with their loss at Baltimore, unable to convert the game tying two point try at the end of regulation.  But that defeat didn’t end their season, not by any stretch of the imagination.  QB Ben Read more


Tags: NFL Miami Dolphins Pittsburgh Steelers Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: AFC Super Bowl Contenders

11.25.2013     07:54 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Last week, I took a break from the typical team notes column that I’ve been writing here in the Vegas Wiseguy Report since the start of the NFL season, focusing on NFC Playoff Contenders. I’ll finish that thought process this week, turning my focus towards the AFC.

I had a spirited debate with a fairly well known professional bettor on Sunday Night after the games were finished. We were both having the same problem; trying to figure out somebody – anybody – in the AFC worthy of support down the stretch as a Super Bowl contender. Frankly, there aren’t a whole lot of choices, and our debate primarily consisted of finding fatal flaws in whatever team the other guy brought up.

My power rating numbers have seven of the top ten teams in the NFL residing in the NFC (Seattle, New Orleans, San Francisco, Carolina, Arizona, Dallas and Detroit). An eighth team could join that group after Aaron Rodgers gets healthy for Green Bay.  And all three of those supposedly elite level AFC teams have problems, which is why I included a fourth contender in my discussion below.

Six AFC teams sit at 5-6 right now, tied for the final Wild Card Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




NFL Gambling Preview: New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens

11.24.2013     08:16 AM     ER Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ER Sports

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
New York Jets at Baltimore
Sunday, 10 am PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
Baltimore -3 O/U 40.5
CRIS Current: Baltimore -3.5 O/U 39.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Baltimore -6
Erin Rynning's Recommendation: Under

The New York Jets fly into Baltimore looking to extend their trend of alternating wins and losses.  While their defense looks up to task it won’t be easy for the offense.  Amazingly the Jets have gone OVER the total in 7 of their 10 games despite ranking 31st in points scored.  The offense led by quarterback Geno Smith has struggled throughout the campaign, while ranking 29th in passing offense.  Making matters much tougher for the offense will be Baltimore’s defense and the weather.  The Ravens defense is still capable, and tough to pass against with a talented secondary and ability to pressure the quarterback.  The weather forecast will make it difficult for both Read more


Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens New York Jets Erin Rynning




NFL Gambling Preview: Baltimore Ravens at Chicago Bears

11.14.2013     01:26 PM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Baltimore at Chicago
Sunday, 10 am PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
Chicago -3 O/U 47
CRIS Current: Chicago -3 O/U 45
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Chicago -3
Ian Cameron's Recommendation: Chicago

I just can’t recommend a bet in this price range right now with the Baltimore Ravens especially playing away from M&T Bank Stadium. Baltimore is a shell of the Super Bowl team from a year ago. There is zero downfield passing game as Joe Flacco has struggled mightily with 6.4 yards per attempt and a 12-11 TD-INT ratio. They can’t run the football either with Ray Rice averaging just 2.5 yards per carry. The defense clearly hasn’t been the same after losing veteran leadership from the likes of Ray Lewis and Ed Reed in the offseason. As a team they rank middle of the pack in the NFL in total defense allowing 342.2 yards per game. Baltimore is 4-5 on the season including a 1-3 SU/ATS run. That is not the kind of track Read more


Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens Chicago Bears Ian Cameron




NFL Betting News and Notes - Week 10

11.13.2013     08:27 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The red hot Carolina Panthers
The Carolina Panthers are the hottest team in the NFL both SU and ATS following their 10-9 victory as 6-point underdogs at San Francisco. Carolina is on a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS roll with wins over Minnesota, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Atlanta and the 49ers. As a result oddsmakers and the betting markets have been forced to adjust as we see the Panthers favored by -2.5 (with juice) for Monday night’s game against New England. Note that Carolina was a small home underdog to the New York Giants back in Week 3 prior to the start of their winning streak. And when Cantor Gaming released its summer lines, the Patriots (who come in off of a bye) were field goal chalk.

The Denver Broncos Over train finally stops chugging
One of the strongest betting trends of the season finally saw its unblemished streak come to an end as Denver’s 28-20 win over San Diego last week fell 10 points short of the closing line.  The thing that stuck out to me in that contest was the fair amount of improvement from Denver’s defense. The Broncos held the Chargers to just 329 total yards which is well under their Read more


Tags: NFL Carolina Panthers New England Patriots Denver Broncos Kansas City Chiefs Ian Cameron



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October

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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, Ian Cameron, and Paul Stone. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Oct 31, 2014 12:57 PM.