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NFL Gambling: The impact quarterbacks have on Season Over/Under Win totals Part I

07.28.2014     06:59 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
I’ve been writing about NFL Season Win Totals for the last few weeks, using what I call “advanced metric schedule analysis.”  This week, the time has come to write about another stage of the 2014 pre-preseason team analysis that affects every win total on the board – quarterbacks.

Why quarterbacks?  Because more than ever, in the modern ‘pass happy’ era of NFL Football, the quarterback is the most important position on any team.  Of course a great quarterback can’t be great without a decent receiving corps or a decent offensive line, so those must be included in the equation when discussing quarterbacks. 

Here’s what I wrote last year in this space:

“The pecking order for NFL quarterbacks is well established.  Most of the best quarterbacks play for the best teams.  Peyton Manning in Denver, Eli Manning in New York, Tom Brady in New England, Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay, Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh, Drew Brees in New Orleans and Joe Flacco in Baltimore all wear Super Bowl rings.  All seven guys play for teams that are perennial playoff teams, and all seven of Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




NFL Handicapping: Ravens determined to improve offense

06.30.2014     08:16 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The Baltimore Ravens are hoping for an offensive turnaround this season after finishing 29th in total yardage in 2013. This offseason, they inked deals with wide receiver Steve Smith and tight end Owen Daniels. Former Houston head coach Gary Kubiak takes over at offensive coordinator.

Total Offense
2013 - 307.4 ypg (29th)
2012 - 352.5 ypg (16th)
2011 - 338.7 ypg (15th)


"It was tough for the offense, much more than we anticipated," Newsome told the Ravens' team site. "The lack of weapons really hurt at times."

"We'll be better on offense. I really like (offensive coordinator) Gary's (Kubiak) schemes," he added. "It's very precise. It's physical. I think we'll run the ball better, we'll keep the ball more and we'll have big plays. You can tell the players, especially guys like Joe (Flacco), like it -- and they can see that we have a good chance to be a lot better."







Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Preseason AFC Betting News and Notes

05.26.2014     08:35 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The LVH Superbook posted their NFL Season Win totals last weekend.  Cantor sportsbooks (CG Technology) have had season win totals posted for months.  Many other books both here in Vegas and offshore have posted season win totals, Week 1 pointspreads and Game of the Year pointspreads.  Most books that haven’t posted NFL numbers yet plan to do so in the near future.  The NFL offseason, at least for sports bettors, is essentially over.  Numbers are up, and they’re moving!

My first step in assessing the upcoming NFL season begins with a thorough look back at last year.  Every team’s power rating is set, in large part, based on where they finished the previous campaign.  Obviously, adjustments are made for injuries, luck, offseason improvements or declines, coaching changes and the like, but those base power rating numbers factor in what happened in 2013 very heavily.

In this week’s Vegas Wiseguy Report, I’ll pass along a tidbit or two from each of the 16 AFC teams in regards to last year.  My focus is on things that are NOT likely to repeat the same way in 2014.  I’ll offer similar Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Las Vegas AFC




Super Bowl XLVIII Prop Bet: Doug Baldwin Total Receiving Yards

01.30.2014     11:19 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Doug Baldwin Total Receiving Yards
Recommendation: Over 39.5


Baldwin’s season averages won’t support this wager – hence some early Under money that drove this total from 40.5 down to 39.5 at several key books.   But with Percy Harvin on the field for the Super Bowl, it should open things up for Baldwin.  And Baldwin has become Wilson’s go-to guy down the stretch.  He had 63+ receiving yards six of the last nine games that he was involved in the offense (he  sat for most of their Week 17 regular season finale), including a six catch, 106 yard effort against the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game.  And this is the type of wager we can cash with a single big play!

Last season Teddy Covers and his clients CRUSHED the prop bets with a 10-1 record. For Sunday's Super Bowl XLVIII, he has nine props with analysis and a recommendation on the game's side. Get them all for only $49.

Below is what clients received with Teddy's prop bet package last year...

WIN - Will There Be Three Read more



Tags: NFL Denver Broncos Seattle Seahawks Super Bowl XLVIII Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Bettors gear up for Super Bowl XLVIII

01.27.2014     08:14 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
It’s Super Bowl time again; the moral equivalent of Christmas Day for sports bettors. Yet many of the professional full time bettors that I know are rather disappointed with the proposition betting opportunities this year – there’s simply not much low hanging fruit. The biggest and best sportsbooks (market leaders both here in Vegas and offshore) have learned from previous mistakes. Bad numbers do NOT abound in 2014.

Let me start with the game itself. The Super Bowl itself has been an underdog bettor’s paradise in recent years.  The Ravens won the Super Bowl last year as the underdog, beating the favored 49ers. The Giants won the year before as an underdog; knocking off the Patriots. In 2010, the Saints won straight up as a dog over Peyton Manning and the Colts. In 2009, the Cardinals covered the spread in a tight loss to the Steelers. In 2008, the Giants beat the favored 18-0 Patriots outright. The only favorite to win and cover in the last six Super Bowls was the Packers when they beat the Steelers in 2011.

The underdog trend in the Super Bowl goes back even further than that, with four consecutive dog covers from 2002 through 2005 Read more



Tags: NFL Denver Broncos Seattle Seahawks Super Bowl XLVIII Teddy Covers Las Vegas




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: A trip down Super Bowl memory lane

01.20.2014     07:15 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
On the one hand, the Super Bowl is just another game for a professional bettor.  On the other hand, the Super Bowl has two major differences.  First and foremost are the prop bets; quite literally hundreds of wagering opportunities that allow bettors to wager from everything on the coin toss and the length of the national anthem to whether Russell Wilson will throw more touchdown passes than Manchester United will score goals on Super Bowl Sunday.  I’ll write about those next week.

The other biggest difference between Super Bowls and other games?  Simple – the Super Bowls stand out in our memories; every one of them.  I’ve been in Vegas since the 1998 football season, and I can tell you where I watched every Super Bowl, what the pointspread was and who covered. Thank you in advance for indulging me a brief trip down memory lane.

My first Super Bowl in Las Vegas was when the Broncos faced the Falcons as favorites of about a TD back in January 1999.  I watched the game in the stadium seating at the Imperial Palace racebook.  My handicap was simple, thinking Denver had a big edge having played in (and beaten) the Read more



Tags: NFL Denver Broncos San Francisco 49ers Super Bowl XLVIII Teddy Covers




NFL Handicapping: Week 17 Playoff Scenarios

12.27.2013     07:10 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
A semi-detailed look at Week 17's playoff scenarios. Heading into Sunday there are four playoff spots still yet to be determined.

NFC: Seattle, Carolina, and San Francisco are in. If the Seahawks beat St. Louis they have homefield advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. If the Seahawks lose and San Francisco beats Arizona, the 49ers would win the West (and earn the top seed if Carolina loses). If both teams lose and Carolina beats Atlanta, then the Panthers are the top seed.

As for the rest of the NFC, Dallas at Philadelphia and Green Bay at Chicago are win-and-in matchups. New Orleans earns a wild card berth if it beats Tampa Bay. The Saints can also win the NFC South if Carolina losses. Arizona needs to beat the 49ers to go along with a Saints loss.

AFC: Denver, New England, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, and Kansas City are in. The Broncos are the top seed if they beat Oakland. If they lose and the Patriots beat the Bills, the Pats are the no. 1 seed. If the Pats lose and Cincinnati wins, the Bengals would move into the no. 2 slot. The Colts can move to no. 2 with losses by New England and Cincinnati. KC is already locked Read more



Tags: NFL




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Playoff bound, but Super Bowl XLVIII bound?

12.23.2013     07:23 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Last year, heading into Week 17, Atlanta was the team to beat in the NFC, having already clinched homefield advantage with their 13-2 (at the time) record.  Washington was the hottest team in the conference and Green Bay was considered very live for the title, with Aaron Rodgers just one year removed from his Super Bowl ring.  In the AFC, the playoff were expected to be an eventual battle between the Patriots and Broncos, with the other four teams (Baltimore, Cincinnati, Houston and Indy) largely considered to be fodder for the elites; non-factors.

What happened? A San Francisco-Baltimore Super Bowl, won by the Ravens; their third straight postseason win as an underdog.  Let’s not forget that Baltimore entered the playoffs in the midst of a late season 1-4 SU and ATS skid; a team that NOBODY expected to make noise in January and February.

In 2011, in the NFC, Green Bay was the unbeatable juggernaut with a 15-1 record as the defending champs, and the Saints weren’t far behind, just one year removed from a Drew Brees Super Bowl ring.  Meanwhile, the Giants were on the outside of the playoff picture, needing to beat Dallas just to get Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Super Bowl XLVIII Las Vegas




NFL Handicapping: Brady wants offense to play at faster tempo

12.19.2013     07:58 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
New England at Baltimore -2.5 O/U 44.5

A couple of quotes from New England quarterback Tom Brady about potentially picking up the pace against the Baltimore Ravens.


“Maybe we should do it more often,” Brady said on Wednesday, after the team’s first practice of the week in advance of their final regular-season road game, Sunday at Baltimore. “I just think we’re trying to figure out what we think is best to do to help us win. It just hasn’t really required that. But we go fast plenty of times, in those two-minute situations where we’ve done a good job.”

“To run three plays and punt really quickly doesn’t do you any more good than running three plays and huddling and all that, and [then] punting. Ultimately we have to score enough points and that

Read more



Tags: NFL New England Patriots Baltimore Ravens




NFL Gambling Preview: Miami Dolphins at Pittsburgh Steelers

12.05.2013     01:26 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Miami at Pittsburgh
Sunday, 10 am PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
Pittsburgh -3.45 O/U 41.5
CRIS Current: Pittsburgh -3 O/U 40.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Pittsburgh -4
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Under

Both the Steelers and the Dolphins are fundamentally flawed football teams, yet both remain very ‘live’ in the AFC Playoff picture.  The 6-6 Dolphins are currently tied with Baltimore for the #6 seed in the AFC, while the Steelers rank just one game behind with four left to play.  That being said, neither team can like their chances if they lose this week.  We should expect a maximum intensity playoff-level showdown as a result.

The Steelers chances took a real blow last week with their loss at Baltimore, unable to convert the game tying two point try at the end of regulation.  But that defeat didn’t end their season, not by any stretch of the imagination.  QB Ben Read more



Tags: NFL Miami Dolphins Pittsburgh Steelers Teddy Covers



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, Ian Cameron, and Paul Stone. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Mar 31, 2015 01:45 PM.