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NFL Gambling Preview: Green Bay Packers at Baltimore Ravens

10.09.2013     12:25 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Green Bay at Baltimore
Sunday, 10 am PT - FOX
CRIS Opener:
Green Bay -3.5 O/U 47.5
CRIS Current: Green Bay -3 O/U 48.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Baltimore pk
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Under

We got two underrated defenses facing off against two offenses that are struggling in the red zone AND committed to running the football . Put those three factors together with the consistently high totals in the modern NFL era and the case for the Under is perfectly clear.

Let me start with the defenses. Green Bay got Morgan Burnett back in the lineup at safety last week after missing the first three games of the season and he definitely had an impact, saving a potential big play TD with a beautiful pass breakup. The Packers front seven really controlled the field against Detroit, and there’s no reason to think they won’t be able to do it again here even without Clay Matthews relentless pass rushing Read more


Tags: NFL Green Bay Packers Baltimore Ravens Teddy Covers




NFL Handicapping: Baltimore seeks better run game vs. Miami

10.03.2013     01:29 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Baltimore at Miami -3 O/U 43.5

Throughout the week the talk in Baltimore has been trying to rediscover the run game. Running backs Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce were all for it after only 64.0 ypg on the ground through the first four weeks of the season. But like the Steelers and Giants who also rank near the bottom of the league in most rushing statistics, most of the problems stem from poor offensive line play.


"We've got to run the ball better," Rice said. "You saw the difference in the first half with [Buffalo]. They're running the ball for four, five yards at time and putting themselves in manageable third downs, and we're not doing that.

"That's tough on everybody. That's tough on our passing game, on Read more



Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens Miami Dolphins




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: AFC News and Notes from Week 4

09.30.2013     07:05 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Welcome to Teddy’s unique look at the NFL. Teddy watches games all day on Sunday, typing furiously on his laptop while giving you the key info that the box scores and game recaps don’t necessarily have. This week: AFC Tidbits from Week 4.

Cincinnati Bengals – This offense should be very tough to get off the field on third downs. Andy Dalton has great chemistry with AJ Green, and the constant double teams that Green demands are supposed to open things up for Jermaine Gresham and Tyler Eifert down the seams along with Mohammed Sanu on the other side. All four guys are tall receivers, easy for Dalton to chuck the ball up to and let them make a play on it. But nobody was making plays here, a real lackluster effort in a divisional game. And Green was essentially shut down by Joe Haden, which, in turn, didn’t allow for the weapons around him to get opportunities in space.

Cinci has cluster injuries in the secondary without Leon Hall and Reggie Nelson; an attack of bad hamstrings. But defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer coached up his replacements – this loss cannot be blamed on the stop unit. James Harrison was a Read more


Tags: NFL Cincinnati Bengals Baltimore Ravens Buffalo Bills Kansas City Chiefs Oakland Raiders Teddy Covers




NFL Betting News and Notes - Week 3

09.25.2013     06:15 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Breaking Down The Undefeated and Winless ATS Teams
Like I did last week, I will take a look at the groups of winless and undefeated ATS teams after Week 3 of the season. Dallas, Miami, Seattle and the New York Jets are 3-0 ATS. Houston, St. Louis, Jacksonville, New York Giants, Pittsburgh, and Washington are 0-3 ATS.

Dallas had a dominant showing on both sides of the football against St. Louis. Miami was heavily outgained by Atlanta but put together a last minute game winning touchdown drive to get the win. Seattle crushed lowly Jacksonville. The NY Jets won the battle of rookie quarterbacks against Buffalo. I think the team most likely to fall out of the undefeated ATS ranks in Week 4 is Miami who will be taking a step up in class on the road against a New Orleans Saints team that has played solid defense for the first time in ages to go along with their potent offense.

The New York Giants and Pittsburgh Steelers are two teams that have been very good for nearly a decade yet they here they sit, 0-3 ATS. And I’m not sure either one has it in them to turn things around and get back on track. Both teams’ struggles show how Read more


Tags: NFL Ian Cameron




NFL Handicpaping: Week 2 Betting and Statistical Recap

09.16.2013     07:14 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Let’s run the numbers…

(If you’re new to the site, “Drive Points” are those scored on drives of 60 yards or more. “Stat Score” is an estimate of what the final score should have been based only on rushing and passing yardage. The formula for that is 2 times rushing yardage…plus passing yardage…times 0.67…divided by 15. Sloppiness is a quickfire stat to measure execution…the formula is 5 times giveaways plus the number of incomplete passes…lower is better because you want to avoid sloppiness)

San Diego 33 (+7.5), Philadelphia 30

S-Diego: 539 yards, 6.8 per-play, 2 turnovers, 67% third downs

Philadel: 511 yards, 8.7 per-play, 1 turnovers, 45% third downs

(Whoever had the ball last was going to win, because both offenses were getting enough YPP at will to move the ball into scoring position. First glaring sign of Philly’s defensive weaknesses this Read more


Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




NFL Gambling Preview: Denver Broncos at New York Giants

09.11.2013     12:13 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Denver at New York Giants
Sunday, 1:25 pm PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
Denver -6 O/U 52.5
CRIS Current: Denver -4 O/U 54.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Denver -3
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Over

The betting markets aren’t used to NFL totals in the mid-50’s.  And there’s a significant sentiment among sharp bettors that NFL totals this high are one-way-only bets – they’re either taking the Under, or passing on the total.  A decade ago, I was one of those bettors who wouldn’t touch anything Over 52 in this league.  But in the modern NFL, that’s a flawed strategy, in my opinion.
Look no further than the TV games from last week.  We had five national TV games on opening weekend: Broncos – Ravens, 49ers – Packers, Giants – Cowboys, Redskins – Eagles and Chargers – Texans.  All five FLEW over the total, by 27, 15, 17, 8 and 15 Read more


Tags: NFL Denver Broncos New York Giants Teddy Covers




NFL Betting News and Notes - Week 1

09.10.2013     03:11 PM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Cause for concern for the defending champs
Most people knew there would be an adjustment period for the Baltimore Ravens after many changes during the offseason but the holes were very much evident following their humbling 49-27 season opening loss in Denver. The Ravens offense had a solid first half but simply died from the moment that both starting right tackle Michael Oher and receiver Jacoby Jones left the game with injuries. Oher’s injury isn’t serious but Jones will be sidelined for approximately 4-6 weeks with a sprained MCL. From that point of the game, the Ravens offense stalled repeatedly. Denver keyed in on the ground game and shut down running backs Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce. Meanwhile, players like Dallas Clark and Ed Dickson proved they were not ready to step up and fill the production void left by the injuries to Jones and Dennis Pitta as well as the departed Anquan Boldin. That allowed Denver to focus their attention defensively on Torrey Smith and nobody else was able to step up for the Ravens in the receiving corps. Clark and Dickson both dropped multiple passes thrown to them by Joe Flacco. Baltimore’s secondary also Read more


Tags: NFL Ian Cameron




NFL Betting Recap: Manning Up...Broncos Avenge Playoff Loss in 49-27 Win over Ravens

09.06.2013     05:57 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

A hard-hitting and exciting first half turned out to be the highlight of the first NFL game of the 2013 season. Denver would take advantage of Baltimore miscues to blow the game open (leading to a huge statistical performance for Peyton Manning). It turned Denver's way with this sequence:

*Baltimore’s Dallas Clark drops a sure TD pass with a few seconds left in the first half. Baltimore has to settle for a field goal and a 17-14 halftime lead.

*Baltimore forces a punt on Denver’s first series of the second half. But, the refs don’t see it that way and give the Broncos a first down on a pass Wes Welker didn’t actually catch before the ball hit the ground. Ravens coach John Harbaugh didn’t challenge in time (Manning got to the line quickly and ran a play). It was going to be Baltimore leading 17-14 with the ball (and it could have been 21-14). Instead, Denver scored a TD three plays later for a 21-17 advantage.

*Baltimore goes 3-and-out Read more


Tags: NFL Denver Broncos Baltimore Ravens Stat Intelligence




NFL Betting Consensus: OVER the popular play for tonight's Ravens vs. Broncos matchup

09.05.2013     12:38 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Baltimore at Denver -7 O/U 48

Here are the current consensus numbers for tonight's NFL regular season opener between Baltimore and Denver courtesy of Bookmaker and Sports Options. Note that Bookmaker's percentages are based on the number of bets made not total handle.

Side
Bookmaker: Denver -7 (-120) 51.2%
Sports Options: Denver -7/-7.5 53%

Moneyline
Bookmaker: Baltimore +270 57.7%
Sports Options: Baltimore +270 56%

Total
Bookmaker: OVER 47.5 83.5%
Sports Options: OVER 48//48.5/49 75%

Line History: Back in late May, Bookmaker (CRIS's little brother) opened Denver -8.5 and it was bet up to -9 where it sat for virtually the entire summer. But over the last week or so, money has steadily come in on Baltimore in part because of injuries to Champ Bailey (foot, out) and Von Miller (suspension, out). Currently, most offshore shops are showing Denver -7 with -115/-120 Read more


Tags: NFL Denver Broncos Baltimore Ravens




NFL Betting Trends: Week 1 Thursday stand-alone home teams

09.03.2013     07:32 AM     Printer Friendly
Solid trend here with NFL home teams playing Week 1 Thursday stand-alone games currently 9-1 SU, 6-2-2 ATS. The Denver Broncos obviously fit the profile for Thursday's game against the Baltimore Ravens.

NFL Week 1 Thursday Home Teams
Date
Team
Opponent
Score
Line
SU
ATS
9/5/02
Giants
49ers
13-16
3.5
Loss
Win
9/4/03
Redskins
Jets
16-13
-3
Win
Push
9/9/04
Patriots
Colts
27-24
-3.5
Win
Loss
9/8/05
Patriots
Raiders
30-20
-7.5
Win
Win
9/7/06
Steelers
Dolphins
28-17
-1.5
Win
Win
9/6/07
Colts
Saints
41-10
-6
Win
Win
9/4/08
Giants
Redskins
16-7
-4
Win
Win
9/10/09
Steelers
Titans
13-10
-6
Win
Loss
9/9/10
Saints
Vikings
14-9
-5
Win
Push
9/8/11
Packers
Saints
42-34
-4.5
Win
Win
9/5/13
Broncos
Ravens
???
-8.5
???
???
Results
 
 
 
 
9-1
6-2-2




Tags: NFL Denver Broncos Baltimore Ravens



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