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NFL Gambling Preview: Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals

10.22.2014     01:16 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Baltimore at Cincinnati
Sunday, 10 am PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
Cincinnati -2.5 O/U 46
CRIS Current: Cincinnati pk O/U 45.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Cincinnati -1.5
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Baltimore

My clients and I cashed a winning Big Ticket bet supporting the Bengals in Week 1 on the road at Baltimore.  Cinci dominated that game early, but settled for five first half field goals.  After halftime, the Ravens scored 17 unanswered to take the lead.  But a 77 yard bomb from Andy Dalton to AJ Green in the final minutes allowed the Bengals to escape with a victory on Baltimore’s home field; their first road win over the Ravens since 2009.

But the Bengals team that we saw on opening day is not the same Bengals team that Marvin Lewis is fielding right now.  AJ Green has a bad toe, unable to suit up in their last two ballgames.  TE Tyler Eifert is out as well.  That duo Read more

Tags: NFL Cincinnati Bengals Baltimore Ravens Teddy Covers

NFL Handicapping: Baltimore in search of more offensive balance

10.10.2014     08:16 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Baltimore -3.5 at Tampa Bay O/U 43.5

Following last week's play calling that featured 42 pass plays to just 15 rushes, the Baltimore Ravens are looking for a more balanced attack against Tampa Bay.

“Last week was the least amount of plays we’ve run in a game and least amount of time we’ve been on the field, and it was self-inflicted,” Kubiak said. “We were poor on third down, and if you’re poor on third down in this league, you’re not going to get snaps and you’re not going to stay on the field. I’m disappointed with last week – everything we did wasn’t good enough. But we’d like to be a balanced football team, and that’s not going to change.”

Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens Tampa Bay Buccaneers

NFL Gambling: Broncos and Ravens top SuperContest picks for Week 5

10.05.2014     08:26 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Below are the top consensus plays for Week 5 of the NFL SuperContest.

1. DENVER -7 vs. Arizona
2. BALTIMORE +3.5 at Indianapolis
3. SAN DIEGO -6.5 vs. NY Jets
4. CINCINATTI -1 at New England
5. CHICAGO +2.5 at Carolina


Tags: NFL Denver Broncos Baltimore Ravens

NFL Handicapping: Betting markets react to suspension of Indianapolis' Landry

09.30.2014     07:49 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Indianapolis' defense took another hit this week with free safety LaRon Landry suspended for PEDs. Projected starter strong Delano Howell is also gone for the year as is linebacker Robert Mathis. Veteran special teamer Sergio Brown is expected to fill in for Landry. The Colts ranked 26th in the league at 6.0 yards per play allowed. Sunday's total vs. Baltimore has already been hit up from 46.5 to 48.5.

Tags: NFL Indianapolis Colts Baltimore Ravens

NFL Handicapping: Carolina run game, Newton's health an issue

09.23.2014     02:09 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Carolina at Baltimore -3 O/U 40.5

Playing from behind for much of the game, the Carolina Panthers didn't have much of a chance to run the football in Sunday's loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. But offensive coordinator Mike Shula said that will be the team's focus moving forward. It won't be easy however considering quarterback Cam Newton's ribs are likely to keep him from being much of a threat on the ground. Newton has only 26 yards on the ground in two games. Last year his 36.5 ypg helped Carolina rank fourth in the NFL (126.6 ypg). This season, they rank 29th at 72.3 ypg.


"First of all, we can't expect to win many games running the ball 10 times, I want to say that," offensive coordinator Mike Shula said. "We are going to have to run the ball and have good balance – better than we had (on

Read more

Tags: NFL Carolina Panthers Baltimore Ravens

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Week 3 Betting Recap

09.22.2014     07:51 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
We’re three weeks into the new NFL season and I’ve already got some pointspread and totals streakers to write about.  Three teams are 3-0 ATS, four more have yet to cover a pointspread. Four teams are 3-0 to the Over; five more are 3-0 to the Under. Who are these teams and why are they trending early? Most importantly, can we expect them to continue to trend in the same direction moving forward? Read on to find out.

I’ll focus here on the pointspread streakers, saving the totals streakers for a thorough look next week. That being said, I will list the early season totals streakers here, so you don’t have to go through the trouble of looking them up. 3-0 to the Over: Browns, Jaguars, Colts and Eagles. 3-0 to the Under: Bengals, Cardinals, Bills, Vikings and Titans.

The NFL is a parity filled league, and pointspreads can adjust rather dramatically based on a single early season performance. A big Week 1 or Week 2 victory, therefore, makes it more difficult to cover the spread the following week. Only three teams have managed to avoid an ATS defeat through the first three weeks of the season. All three of those squads were less than Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

NFL Handicapping: Pittsburgh's defense shows vulnerability vs. no-huddle

09.11.2014     02:30 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Pittsburgh at Baltimore -2.5 O/U 44.4

In the second half of last week's non-spread covering win over Cleveland, the Pittsburgh Steelers' defense struggled against the no-huddle. Pittsburgh is expecting tonight's opponent, Baltimore, to utilize it as well.

"What we've shown is if you want to huddle and play against us we'll do fine, but this no-huddle (offense) has given us some problems," Troy Polamalu said, per the team's official website. "We have to do something to rectify that. Coach LeBeau is the genius of all defensive coordinators, and he'll figure it out."

"I certainly do," he said. "Our two worst games, no doubt, have been against a hurry-up deal. So we're going to see it until we handle it."

Tags: NFL Pittsburgh Steelers Baltimore Ravens

NFL Gambling Consensus: Bettors all over Pittsburgh and the OVER for Thursday Night Football

09.11.2014     02:05 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Here are the top consensus bets (sides, total, and moneyline) for tonight's Thursday Night Football game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens courtesy of Bookmaker. The Ravens opened 3-point favorites at both Bookmaker and Pinnacle but a majority of the money throughout the week has come in on the Steelers which has taken out virtually every +3. Note that the percentages are based on the number of bets made not total handle.

60.3% - Pittsburgh +2.5

60.3% - OVER 44.5

66.1% - Pittsburgh +120

Tags: NFL Pittsburgh Steelers Baltimore Ravens

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Under- and over-reacting to early season football results

09.08.2014     07:50 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
I probably heard the same expression 20 times last week: ‘Don’t overreact to Week 1 results.’   It’s one of those handicapping mantras that we hear every year right around this time – the very beginning of football season. 

In basketball or baseball there’s no week off between the first two games and the early season betting markets don’t react intensely off a single poor performance.  But for football – both NFL and college – the prevailing conventional wisdom is that Week 1 results are a thing to take with a grain of salt.

The concept certainly makes sense.  Coaches – especially college football coaches – will tell you that they expect their biggest improvement between Week 1 and Week 2.  Without the benefit of preseason games or even scrimmages against opposing squads, teams often ‘work out the kinks’ and ‘get up to game speed’ in their initial contest.  The team you expected to see this year (at least for bettors who do some homework and have opinions coming into the campaign) might not be the team you saw in Week 1, but there’s Read more

Tags: NFL College Football Teddy Covers

NFL Betting: Recapping recent Week 1 line moves

09.02.2014     07:55 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Quick look at the some of the recent line moves in the NFL betting markets...

New Orleans at Atlanta: The Falcons opened -1.5 during the summer but by mid-August the Saints were -1.5/-2 favorites. Last week, New Orleans was popped again and is now -3 (ev/-105) across the board.

Minnesota at St. Louis: The Rams were -6/-6.5 for much of the summer. Now that Sam Bradford is out, the market has settled in at -4/-3.5.

Cincinnati at Baltimore: The Ravens never really threatened to go to -3, but all of the +2.5's were taken out as they are now -1 vs. the Bengals.

Buffalo at Chicago: Bears have bounced back and forth -6.5/-7. There is some opinion on this one with Chicago -7 (-110) at CRIS and -6.5 (-110) at Greek and Cantor.

Tennessee at Kansas City: A slow trickle of Titans' money pushed them from +6 to +3.5. Wouldn't be surprised to see the Chiefs -3 (w/ juice) come game day.

San Francisco at Dallas: Another one with varying opinion. San Fran opened -3.5 and was bet up to -6. But recent Cowboys' support has the 49ers settled in at Read more

Tags: NFL


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