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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NCAA Tournament Hard Numbers, Not Hype

03.21.2016     12:22 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The insanity that was the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament is in the rear view mirror, and the hard numbers show a very different story than the mainstream media is reporting.  Just once, I wish I could turn on Sportscenter and find out what was going on against the spread.  But ESPN doesn’t do that, obviously, nor does CBS, TNT, TBS, TrueTV or any of the other major networks, whether they’re involved with televising the Big Dance or not.  That, of course, leaves a void for me to fill.

Carnage!  Madness! Brackets in flames, in shreds!  That was the message from the networks over the weekend.  Bettors, however, saw a very different story.  Betting favorites, in fact, had a winning weekend against the spread over the first four full days of the tournament.

I threw out all the games where there was no true favorite; games with a pointspread of -1.5 or less.  Many of those games — like Notre Dame vs Stephen F Austin on Sunday; a disastrous result for many books — had a switch of favorites at some point between the opening and closing lines.  Notre Dame +1.5 and Stephen F Austin +1.5 were both Read more



Tags: College Basketball Teddy Covers




NCAA Tournament Gambling Free Pick: Hawaii Warriors vs. California Golden Bears

03.18.2016     06:55 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Hawaii vs. California -5 O/U 141
Recommendation: California


Oftentimes the college basketball betting markets are so predictable.  Yes, Cal just lost their leading scorer, senior point guard Tyrone Wallace, to a broken hand that he suffered in practice earlier in the week.  And the markets proceeded to do what they do, without a sliver of thought or research.  They hear leading scorer or senior point guard and immediately start betting Hawaii, hand over fist.

All of which leaves us with Cal sitting at --5 as I write this; in a game that has legitimate mismatch potential.  First, let me start with Wallace.  He’s missed five games earlier in the year, and then came off the bench for the next three.  Cal went 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS in the games that Wallace missed, including wins over Arizona and Oregon, two teams that are FAR better than Hawaii.

How has Cal been able to thrive without their senior point guard before?  Simple – they’ve got a backup who is almost as good.  Sam Singer doesn’t have Wallace’s scoring prowess , but that’s no big deal for a team that has Read more



Tags: College Basketball Hawaii Warriors California Golden Bears Teddy Covers




NCAA Tournament Gambling Free Pick: Iona Gaels vs. Iowa State Cyclones

03.17.2016     07:17 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Iona vs. Iowa State -9 O/U 166.5
Recommendation: Over


We’ve got two teams that love to run, pushing the pace at every opportunity – this is the highest total (by a fairly wide margin) of the first round for a reason!  And it’s the type of game where the loser can be expected to get into the 80’s, if not higher! Both squads rank among the Top 35 in the country when it comes to tempo; with each team averaging less than 16 seconds per possession.  And when two teams like this get together, it’s a track meet, Throw in the early start time and the mile high altitude and we can expect defense to be optional for extended stretches of this ball game.

The Gaels have scored 78+ in nine of their last ten games; lighting up the scoreboard even against opponents who were trying to slow them down.  When they faced another uptempo opponent – Fairfield, for example – the Gaels scored 91 and lost.  In their first matchup with Monmouth, the Gaels scored 102 in regulation and lost.  In fact, in ten Iona games with a total of 158 or higher, they went 8-2 to the Over; playing even faster than the Read more



Tags: College Basketball Iona Gaels Iowa State Cyclones Teddy Covers




College Basketball Betting Free Pick: Montana Grizzlies at Nevada Wolf Pack

03.16.2016     09:08 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Montana at Nevada -3.5 O/U 138.5
Recommendation: Nevada


Ultra-tough spot for Montana tonight as it travels right back to Reno after losing in heartbreaking fashion to Weber State in the Big Sky Tournament finals. Following the loss, the team was split on whether or not they even wanted to play in a postseason tournament. In the end, they decided to give it a go but it's clear the sting of not making the NCAA Tournament hit this team hard. Now they must go back on the road to uneventful Reno, Nevada and try to get up for the meaningless CBI Tournament. Supporting teams in these secondary tournaments with first-year head coaches isn't a bad profile. Eric Musselman took over a nine-win team and got them to 19-13 and a winning record inside the Mountain West. The Wolf Pack are still without a healthy Marqueze Coleman who was a non-factor in the MWC Tournament. And they've had a difficult time winning by margin this season with three overtime victories and five others by three or less. Nine times out of ten I believe all of the distractions and situationals get tossed out once the whistle blows, but there's a strong potential for a no-show from the road Read more



Tags: College Basketball Montana Grizzlies Nevada Wolf Pack Andrew Lange




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: How to beat your NCAA Tournament office pool

03.14.2016     10:27 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
I could go off on the NCAA Tournament committee for screwing the mid-majors again, something that’s becoming an annual tradition.  But complaining about the committee is akin to complaining about the weather – everybody does it, but it doesn’t help one iota.  Instead, in this week’s Wiseguy Report, I’m going to focus on the casual fan and strategies for winning office pool bracket contests.

It’s bracket time, the annual intrusion every March of the general public into our college basketball sportsbetting world.  And when it comes to filling out brackets, there aren’t many bigger experts than Ed Feng from thepowerrank.com, who I had the chance to interview last week.

Feng is an interesting guy, earning his PhD from Stanford – he’s no dummy.  He’s written for Grantland , Deadspin and Bleacher Report, just to name a few of the sites he’s been affiliated with.  Last year, advanced analytics website FiveThirtyEight.com conducted a study that found Feng’s predictions for the 2015 NCAA Tournament to be the most accurate among their forecasts, culminating in Duke’s Read more



Tags: College Basketball Teddy Covers




Sportsmemo's MLB Betting Preview: Kansas City Royals

03.14.2016     08:07 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

copy_mlb_preview_2015].jpg

Kansas City Royals
2015 W-L:
  95-67
2015 O/U:  73-75-14
2015 Profits:  + 19.4 units
2016 O/U Wins (Westgate):  83.5
2016 AL Central Odds (Westgate):  5/2
Projected Starting Rotation:  Yordano Ventura,  Edinson Volquez,  Ian Kennedy,  Chris Young,  Kris Medlen
Key Departures:  Johnny Cueto, Ryan Madson, Ben Zobrist, Jeremy Guthrie, Joba Chamberlain
Key Additions:  Travis Snider, Dillon Gee, Joakim Soria

Handicapper's Take: "Amazingly, the Royals didn't have one elite-level starting pitcher last season. In fact, they won the World Series with a slew of decidedly mediocre arms. Yordano Ventura is only 24 years old and the only starter who has upside/room to grow assuming his slight frame can handle the workload. Ian Kennedy comes over from San Diego and gets to watch the best outfield in baseball track down all of the line drives and fly balls he's bound to surrender. Edinson Read more



Tags: MLB Kansas City Royals Andrew Lange




College Basketball Free Betting Pick: Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. North Carolina Tar Heels

03.11.2016     11:08 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Notre Dame vs. North Carolina -7 O/U 158.5
Recommendation: Over


Roy Williams always wants his team to play fast, and in neutral court settings, Williams has been an Over machine: 20-7 to the Over in the Tar Heels last 27 neutral site games.  North Carolina really pushed the pace yesterday against Pitt, hanging 88 points on the generally slower paced Panthers.  Perhaps most importantly, North Carolina’s struggling three point shooters – Marcus Paige and Joel Berry – both hit multiple three pointers, enjoying the friendly Verizon Center court.

When these two teams played in the ACC Tournament Championship Game last year, we saw a truly wild shootout, with the Irish winning 90-82.  The old joke about Roy Williams having a tee time set for the Saturday of the ACC tournament – a coach who historically has placed much more importance on the Big Dance than the conference tourney – simply isn’t the case this year.  North Carolina has something to prove and something to gain in this year’s tourney; not a throwaway game for the Tar Heels by any stretch of the imagination this time Read more



Tags: College Basketball Notre Dame Fighting Irish North Carolina Tar Heels Teddy Covers




College Basketball Betting Podcast 3-11-2016 with Sportsmemo Handicappers Rob Veno and Teddy Covers

03.11.2016     11:04 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Friday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured Sportsmemo Handicappers Rob Veno and Teddy Covers. Both cappers and host Andrew Lange broke down tonight college basketball conference tournament games.

Today's segments
Full Show

Teddy Covers - College Basketball (Big Ten, SEC, MWC)

Rob Veno - College Basketball (ACC, Big East, Big XII, PAC-12)

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.




Tags: College Basketball Rob Veno Teddy Covers Andrew Lange




College Basketball Free Betting Pick: UNLV Rebels vs. Fresno State Bulldogs

03.10.2016     10:07 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
UNLV vs. Fresno State -2.5 O/U 147.5
Recommendation: Fresno State


My clients and I cashed a ticket against UNLV yesterday in their marathon triple OT non-spread covering win over Air Force in which the Rebels never once sniffed a pointspread cover as -11 favorites. The toll of that win is likely to be felt in a big way for UNLV tonight as they must endure an extremely difficult 24 hour turnaround to face Fresno State in quarterfinals. UNLV had three key players on the floor for more than 40 minutes as Jordan Cornish played 41 minutes while the trio of Jerome Seagears, Ike Nwamu and Patrick McCaw all played 54+ minutes. That is very troubling for UNLV considering all of the injuries and lack of depth this squad goes to battle with each night. Fresno State enters this game fresh as a daisy and in very good form with a strong 6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS run including a trio of solid road wins at Utah State, New Mexico and Wyoming. Fresno State won and covered both regular season meetings against UNLV this season. There is a fallacy out there among certain bettors that it’s difficult to beat the same team three times in a season but in this case it isn’t Read more



Tags: College Basketball UNLV Rebels Fresno State Bulldogs Ian Cameron




Sportsmemo's MLB Betting Preview: Houston Astros

03.09.2016     08:40 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

copy_mlb_preview_2015].jpg

Houston Astros
2015 W-L:
 86-76 
2015 O/U: 73-80-9 
2015 Profits: -2.7 Units
2016 O/U Wins: 87 
2016 AL West Odds: +160
Projected Starting Rotation: Dallas Keuchel, Collin McHugh, Mike Fiers, Scott Feldman, Doug Fister
Key Departures:  Jed Lowrie, Scott Kazmir, Oliver Perez, Chad Qualls, Chris Carter
Key Additions: Ken Giles, Doug Fister

Handicapper's Take: "The Astros came one win away from winning a playoff series last year.  That breakout campaign came on the heels of a major, long term rebuilding project.  Houston won only 70 games in 2014, on the heels of 51, 55 and 56 win seasons.

When a team that had won 70 games or less for four straight years suddenly morphs into a legit World Series contender, in theory, bettors are supposed to be able to make some serious money with that team.  But that wasn’t the case last year with the Astros Read more



Tags: MLB Houston Astros Teddy Covers



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Ian Cameron, Drew Martin, and Alex B. Smith. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Podcast Monday-Friday at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Podcast?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's podcast archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, CFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   May 06, 2016 05:28 PM.