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NFL Gambling Preview: Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers

11.13.2014     02:41 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Philadelphia at Green Bay
Sunday, 1:30 pm PT - FOX
CRIS Opener:
Green Bay -5.5 O/U 56.5
CRIS Current: Green Bay -6 O/U 54.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Green Bay -5
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Philadelphia

Green Bay is coming off a near perfect game, absolutely annihilating the Chicago Bears from start to finish.  Aaron Rodgers was at his best, tying the all time NFL record with six touchdown passes before halftime.  "We just kind of got things going our way. The line did a good job of giving me time to extend plays. If you extend plays, you look down the field and there's Jordy Nelson. He made some nice catches." That win improved the Packers record following a bye week under Mike McCarthy to 9-0 ATS. 

The last time the Packers played a near perfect game (destroying Carolina), they followed it up with a clunker the following week in New Orleans.  Following another near Read more

Tags: NFL Philadelphia Eagles Green Bay Packers Teddy Covers

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFC News and Notes

11.03.2014     12:00 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
We’re into November, just past the halfway point of the 2014 NFL season.  The truths that we learned in September aren’t proving to be quite so true now that the season has progressed.  In this week’s wiseguy report, we’ll take a quick tour around the NFC landscape, focusing on some hidden gems of knowledge from around the league.

With their dominating win on Sunday, the Arizona Cardinals are now 14-3 SU, 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 ballgames.  Only one of those three losses came by more than a field goal – their game at Denver, when third string rookie QB Logan Thomas was forced into action after injuries to Carson Palmer and Drew Stanton.

Yet the Cardinals statistical profile continues to confound wiseguy bettors.  Arizona went into their game at Dallas on Sunday with a -0.6 yards per play differential.  To put that number in perspective, the Oakland Raiders entered the weekend with a - 0.5 yards per play differential, the Jacksonville Jaguars had a -0.7 ypp differential.    And the Cards have been on the lucky end of the turnover equation this year, now +10 for the season after winning the Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

NFL Handicapping: Carolina run game, Newton's health an issue

09.23.2014     02:09 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Carolina at Baltimore -3 O/U 40.5

Playing from behind for much of the game, the Carolina Panthers didn't have much of a chance to run the football in Sunday's loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers. But offensive coordinator Mike Shula said that will be the team's focus moving forward. It won't be easy however considering quarterback Cam Newton's ribs are likely to keep him from being much of a threat on the ground. Newton has only 26 yards on the ground in two games. Last year his 36.5 ypg helped Carolina rank fourth in the NFL (126.6 ypg). This season, they rank 29th at 72.3 ypg.


"First of all, we can't expect to win many games running the ball 10 times, I want to say that," offensive coordinator Mike Shula said. "We are going to have to run the ball and have good balance – better than we had (on

Read more

Tags: NFL Carolina Panthers Baltimore Ravens

NFL Gambling Update: Carolina's Newton upgraded to probable

09.05.2014     07:20 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Carolina at Tampa Bay -2.5 O/U 39

According to reports, Carolina's Cam Newton (rib) is "on pace" to start Week 1's opener at Tampa Bay. They Panthers won't make it official, however, until Sunday. Carolina opened as a 2-point favorite but since Newton's injury because public, we've seen a steady flow of Tampa Bay money. Offshore sportsbooks 5Dimes and Jazz currently have the Bucs -3 (ev).

"How I'm feeling right now, I'm on pace to be ready to go on Sunday.''

Asked what could disrupt that, Newton jokingly said, "Maybe from walking home, somebody wants to [mug] me or something like that. Getting hit by a car. Running away from a tiger. There's a lot of things that could disrupt that pace.''

"It's not just about Game 1, also,'' Rivera said. "Let's be realistic. This is not a sprint,

Read more

Tags: NFL Carolina Panthers Tampa Bay Buccaneers

NFL Handicapping: Newton's injury not as bad as originally thought, probable for Week 1

08.26.2014     07:12 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Following reports that his season could be over, Cam Newton's fractured ribs appear to be nothing more than a short-term issue. Newton will obviously not play in Saturday's preseason finale at Pittsburgh. But most sources (including Sports Options) have him as probable for Week 1's game at Tampa Bay. When news broke of the injury a few bettors were able to sneak in with wagers on Tampa Bay +1 (Carolina opened -2 back in May). Most sportsbooks have since taken the game off the board.

“I do” expect he’ll play, Rivera said. “But he has to get past the soreness. Then we will see how he starts to progress.”

Tags: NFL Carolina Panthers Pittsburgh Steelers Tampa Bay Buccaneers

NFL Preseason Handicapping: Carolina's Newton doubtful, Anderson next up

08.08.2014     06:03 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Buffalo -1.5 at Carolina O/U 37

Another banged up starting quarterback with Carolina's Cam Newton (ankle) expected to sit vs. Buffalo. The Panthers' backups include Derek Anderson, Matt Blanchard, and Joe Webb.

"Do I want to play? I do," Newton said Thursday. "I think this is an opportunity for me to play. But I'm sticking to the program and what coach is asking me to do and (trainer) Ryan Vermillion is asking me to do."

Tags: NFL Carolina Panthers Buffalo Bills

NFL Gambling: The impact quarterbacks have on Season Over/Under Win totals Part II

08.04.2014     01:41 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Last week, I wrote about the very short list of truly elite level NFL quarterbacks and those quarterbacks’ subsequent effect on season win totals.  This week, I’ll take a step down in class from the elites, looking at two more QB tiers: those just below elite and those at the bottom.

Here’s what I wrote prior to the 2013 campaign about the second tier of quarterback; not elite Super Bowl winners but still in the top half overall:  The next grouping of quarterbacks isn’t as easy to establish.  I’d probably put the likes of Robert Griffin III, Russell Wilson, Matt Ryan, Matt Schaub, Tony Romo, Philip Rivers and Colin Kaepernick in this grouping; and I wouldn’t argue with anyone who wanted to include Matthew Stafford, Jay Cutler, Cam Newton or Andrew Luck.  Just about every one of those QBs also plays for a playoff contending team.

That list clearly shows one huge difference between the truly elite quarterbacks and those one level below Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Playoff bound, but Super Bowl XLVIII bound?

12.23.2013     07:23 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Last year, heading into Week 17, Atlanta was the team to beat in the NFC, having already clinched homefield advantage with their 13-2 (at the time) record.  Washington was the hottest team in the conference and Green Bay was considered very live for the title, with Aaron Rodgers just one year removed from his Super Bowl ring.  In the AFC, the playoff were expected to be an eventual battle between the Patriots and Broncos, with the other four teams (Baltimore, Cincinnati, Houston and Indy) largely considered to be fodder for the elites; non-factors.

What happened? A San Francisco-Baltimore Super Bowl, won by the Ravens; their third straight postseason win as an underdog.  Let’s not forget that Baltimore entered the playoffs in the midst of a late season 1-4 SU and ATS skid; a team that NOBODY expected to make noise in January and February.

In 2011, in the NFC, Green Bay was the unbeatable juggernaut with a 15-1 record as the defending champs, and the Saints weren’t far behind, just one year removed from a Drew Brees Super Bowl ring.  Meanwhile, the Giants were on the outside of the playoff picture, needing to beat Dallas just to get Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Super Bowl XLVIII Las Vegas

NFL Handicapping: Drive Point Averages Week 16

12.20.2013     07:40 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Are you missing NFL football on a Thursday night? Here are this week’s Drive Point averages to help you make it to the weekend. Games are presented market rotation order. If you’re new to the blog, these are per-game averages for points scored and allowed on drives of 60 yards or more (weeding out all defensive points, special teams points, and otherwise “cheap” points from drives of 59 yards or less as itemized in standard boxscores). The first sent of parenthesis shows the current strength of schedule rankings from Jeff Sagarin of USA Today and Football Outsiders (in that order). The second set of parenthesis shows turnover differential to this point in the season.

That composite helps you visualize strengths, weaknesses, and team styles for all 32 teams. Sometimes they help you find matchup advantages in a given game. Here we go…

Miami: 11.8 on offense, 12.3 on defense (14-6) (+2 turnovers)

Buffalo: 11.4 on offense, Read more

Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence

NFL Handicapping: Pace Factor heading into Week 15

12.19.2013     07:19 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

If you’re new to the blog, these are per-game averages in the sum of total plays + penalties + field goal attempts + punts for games involving each team. Buffalo’s games have had the most plays at 167.4 by my count, even faster paced than the “Oregon-style” Philadelphia Eagles at 166.8. Of course, Buffalo also has a first-year coach that just came up from the college level. The slowest paced team by this measure is Carolina, with 146.0 in their games on average. Hasn’t that pace helped the defense drive while encouraging Cam Newton to play relatively mistake-free?

The scale…

Helter Skelter (159 and up)

Buffalo 167.4

Philadelphia 166.8

Cleveland 165.6

Denver 163.6

New England 163.0

Baltimore 161.7

Kansas City 159.4
Faster Than Average (156-158)

Jacksonville 157.3 (influenced by playing from behind so Read more

Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence


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