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NFL Gambling Preview: Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears

09.15.2015     01:26 PM     Alex Smith     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Alex Smith blog entry.
Arizona at Chicago
Sunday, 10 am PT - FOX
CRIS Opener:
Arizona -2 O/U 45
CRIS Current: Arizona -2 O/U 45
Recommendation: Arizona

The Chicago Bears opened up the year with a tough 31-23 loss to Green Bay. Running back Matt Forte was solid with 141 rushing yards and a touchdown and while Chicago's defense has shown some improvement from last season's horrific campaign, there are still some glaring issues. The Bears allowed 6.1 yards per play with some terrible displays of missed tackling and poor reading of rushing routes against the Packers. Things won't be any easier this week with Arizona. The Cards pulled away from New Orleans with two late touchdowns to earn the 31-19 victory. Arizona's tough defense held a very good Saints offense to four field goals and only 54 yards on the ground. Offensively, the Cardinals averaged 7.5 yards per play and were a perfect 3-for-3 inside the red zone.

The Bears are going to have to diversify their offense and take more chances when nearing the red zone. They seemed too reliant on short passes and screens last game and while Arizona has two Read more

Tags: NFL Chicago Bears Airzona Cardinals Alex B. Smith

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Power Ratings 1-32

09.07.2015     08:57 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
The NFL regular season starts on Thursday.  Here’s how I have the 32 teams ranked heading into the campaign, with a quick blurb each squad.

1. New England Patriots - With Tom Brady set to open the season as the starting quarterback, the defending champs are the team to beat, worthy of my #1 ranking heading into the regular season.

2. Seattle Seahawks - Seattle enjoyed the best yards-per-rush differential between offense and defense last year, but they’ve got significant offensive line question marks as they head to St Louis for Week 1.

3. Green Bay Packers - The Packers passing game was second to none in the NFL last year, but the loss of Jordy Nelson leaves Aaron Rodgers without his top target for the entire season.

4. Indianapolis Colts - Most elite contenders face a tougher than average schedule because they’ve got to face other contending teams.  Indy, however, plays only four games against playoff teams from last year.

5. Denver Broncos - Peyton Manning is the oldest starting quarterback in the NFL by a wide margin, and he’s coming off a season where his arm strength noticeably declined down the Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Preseason impacts Season Over/Under Win Totals

08.31.2015     08:24 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
At this late stage of the preseason, it’s very clear which NFL teams are attracting sharp money prior to the start of the regular season.  In addition, it’s very clear which teams the wiseguys are betting against, early and often.  How do we measure and quantify this support (or the lack thereof)?  Simple – a thorough analysis of the Season Win Totals marketplace.

The markets don’t lie when it comes to measuring wiseguy support, because the results are easy to quantify.  For the purposes of this article, I’m going to focus on the Season Win Total numbers from the Westgate Superbook, where the Supercontest Weekend just brought together bettors from across the Las Vegas Valley as well as across the country.

Rather than use opening numbers from the Superbook, I think the more accurate way to measure the effect of the preseason is to look at post-draft numbers from early June.  When we compare those early June numbers with the bettable numbers that are on display on the last day of August (following the first three weeks of preseason action), we get a fairly accurate picture of market support.

The Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

NFL Preseason Gambling: Colts to extend playing time for starters vs. Bears

08.21.2015     08:09 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
After seeing limited action in Week 1, Indianapolis plans to extend the playing time of its starters for Saturday's home game against Chicago. The Colts are currently -3 (-115) with a total of 41.

"We have an idea other than if someone gets nicked up and they can't go or they're limited from an injury standpoint," Pagano said on Thursday.  "We just have to plan going in to Week 2 in the preseason what you want to try to get done.  Guys will play more."

Tags: NFL Indianapolis Colts Chicago Bears

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Preseason Week 1 Betting Recap

08.17.2015     08:03 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Week 1 of the NFL Preseason is behind us.  The NFL season win totals futures markets are already reacting to what we’ve seen, showing some modest movement off the successes and failures of the first and second string units.  We can expect that initial line movement to continue unabated if we see more of the same from those units in Week 2.  In this week’s Wiseguy Report, I’ll take a quick tour around the NFL, specifically focusing on any misleading stats or under-the radar performances from the 16 games that we just saw.

Let’s start with a brief overview of the results.  It was a strong Week 1 for the betting favorites.  There were three games that closed right around pick ‘em with no chalk to speak of: KC at Arizona, Washington at Cleveland and Miami at Chicago.  Of the 13 games that closed with a legitimate favorite of at least -1 or higher here in Las Vegas, the favorites dominated to the tune of 10-3 ATS (counting Jacksonville -1.5 as a win in their two point victory over Pittsburgh).  All three underdogs that covered won the game in SU fashion (Carolina beat Buffalo, Green Bay won at New England and Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: How to bet NFL Season O/U Wins Part II

08.10.2015     10:17 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Last week in this space, I looked back at last year’s final NFL standings and discussed the impact of strength of schedule models on those results.  I differentiated between mainstream widely available numbers for the 2014 strength of schedule (simply adding up wins and losses for every opponent) and my own formula, relying on power rating numbers from the week that the game was played. 

The goal was simple -- getting more accurate numbers to properly assess last year’s results in strength of schedule context as a starting point for 2015.

We’re done with last year now. This week, I’ll focus on the 2015 NFL strength of schedule as they relate to season win totals.  Once again, my goal is to differentiate between the mainstream numbers and the meaningful ones.

Google ‘2015 NFL Strength of Schedule’ and you’ll find countless charts exactly like this one.
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (.579)
2. Cincinnati Bengals (.563)
3. Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Las Vegas

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Breaking down the NFL's new offensive coordinators

07.20.2015     08:14 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Much of the offseason media hype comes from the head coaching changes in the NFL, but savvy bettors know that coordinator changes are every bit as important.  In my Wiseguy Report, I’m beginning a multi-week overview of the new coordinators around the league starting on offense, focusing on how the new coordinators experience and philosophies are likely to affect their new team’s level of production.  Next week, I’ll finish off the OC changes and begin examining the defensive coordinator changes.  Coordinators are listed in alphabetical order based on their new teams.

Marc Trestman, Baltimore Ravens - Trestman crashed and burned during his short head coaching tenure with the Chicago Bears, unable to turn Jay Cutler into an elite level quarterback.  But Trestman’s reputation as a creative play caller and top tier quarterback guru hasn’t been affected by his failures in the Windy City.  Each of Baltimore’s last two offensive coordinators was a former head coach who got another head coaching job – Jim Caldwell and Gary Kubiak; something Trestman covets.  And while Chicago didn’t Read more

Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens Chicago Bears Denver Broncos Jacksonville Jaguars Oakland Raiders Teddy Covers

A perfect match: Gambling and the Super Bowl

01.20.2015     08:34 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Publicly, the NFL is among one of the staunchest opponents of legalized gambling. Former commissioner Paul Tagliabue and current commissioner Roger Goodell were instrumental in getting the anti gaming ‘Illegal Internet Gambling Prohibition Act’ attached to the Port Security Bill. The NFL has taken this stance despite the fact that its enormous popularity is, in no small part, due to the prevalence of betting on games.

The hypocrisy of the NFL in regards to betting is almost laughable. The facts, as you will see, clearly show that the league was founded by gamblers for gamblers. From the NFL’s first television appearance in 1939 through the current TV deal that pumps more than three billion dollars per year into the league coffers, the NFL’s popularity rests upon the shoulders of those who wager on the outcome of the games.

Here in the 21st century, the NFL is the most popular and profitable sport in the. NFL owners are among the richest men in the world; franchises are bought and sold for more than half a billion dollars. However, the league’s humble origins were anything but the extravagant bonanza that is the NFL today. Read more

Tags: NFL Super Bowl XLIX Teddy Covers

NFL Gambling Alert: Bears go back to the well with Cutler

12.22.2014     12:44 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
A week removed from getting benched for Jimmy Clausen, Jay Cutler has regained his starting spot -- albeit in de facto fashion. Clausen suffered a concussion in Sunday's loss to Detroit. The Bears (+6.5/+7) close the year at Minnesota.

“Jay gives us the best chance this week. So that’s why he’ll be out there,” Trestman said, via “Jay said ‘I’ll be ready to go.’ He empathizes with what Jimmy had gone through last night. He’s ready to go. He’ll be in this afternoon to get started.”

Tags: NFL Chicago Bears Minnesota Vikings

NFL Gambling Alert: Bears to start Clausen vs. Lions

12.18.2014     07:29 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
The Chicago Bears have decided to start Jimmy Clausen vs. Detroit. The Lions, who are in the hunt for one of the top two seeds in the NFC, opened -6.5/-7 but have since been bet up to as high as -9.

"We haven't been able to do the things that we want to get done," he said. "We're working towards that. But the answer to that is obvious. I'm trying to give you the most truthful answer, and that is, we've seen moments of it, but it's not where we need to go. It's not where we need to be. But it's not all about Jay. It's about our entire offense, working together to get it done."

Tags: NFL Chicago Bears Detroit Lions


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