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NFL Gambling Preview: Baltimore Ravens at Chicago Bears

11.14.2013     01:26 PM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Baltimore at Chicago
Sunday, 10 am PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
Chicago -3 O/U 47
CRIS Current: Chicago -3 O/U 45
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Chicago -3
Ian Cameron's Recommendation: Chicago

I just can’t recommend a bet in this price range right now with the Baltimore Ravens especially playing away from M&T Bank Stadium. Baltimore is a shell of the Super Bowl team from a year ago. There is zero downfield passing game as Joe Flacco has struggled mightily with 6.4 yards per attempt and a 12-11 TD-INT ratio. They can’t run the football either with Ray Rice averaging just 2.5 yards per carry. The defense clearly hasn’t been the same after losing veteran leadership from the likes of Ray Lewis and Ed Reed in the offseason. As a team they rank middle of the pack in the NFL in total defense allowing 342.2 yards per game. Baltimore is 4-5 on the season including a 1-3 SU/ATS run. That is not the kind of track Read more


Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens Chicago Bears Ian Cameron




NFL Handicapping: Drive Point Averages Week 10

11.10.2013     06:57 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Drive Points are those scored and allowed on drives of 60 yards or more. What you see below are per-game averages on offense and defense for each team. Quick standards if you weren’t with us earlier in the week:

Below 12: bad on offense, good on defense

12-14: near league average

Above 14: good on offense bad on defense

I present the games in market rotation order so you can make notes in your schedules if you wish. Otherwise…you know…there’s NO WAY I would start off with a horrible game like Jacksonville/Tennessee

Jacksonville:  4.5 on offense, 17.3 on defense

Tennessee: 11.0 on offense, 13.3 on defense

(Jacksonville has one of the worst offenses of the modern era to this point in the season. Will be fun watching them and Tampa Bay battle from 0-8 to try and get the top draft Read more


Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




NFL Handicapping: Feng Shui/Analytics

11.07.2013     06:45 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I talked about this some in past seasons…how we keep seeing such differences in team rankings amongst the various “analytic” approaches that get media play across the landscape. I mostly stayed away from what those sites were saying this year. But, the recent talk about how poorly some of those approaches have done against market prices got me to thinking about it again.

So, I dropped in on Football Outsiders today, and saw they had the Chicago Bears ranked  #4 in the NFL in their “weighted DVOA.” Now…we KNOW that the Chicago Bears aren’t the fourth best team in pro football. That jumped right out. Figured I’d check out what Brian Burke’s Advanced NFL Stats site had in their rankings. And, Cincinnati was sitting at the top of the heap even though they lost to Miami last week. Again, we KNOW that the Cincinnati Bengals aren’t the best team in the NFL. Obviously it’s time to revisit the topic.

This stuff Read more


Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




NFL Handicapping: Best and Worst Drive Point Performances

11.06.2013     07:11 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Here are offensive and defensive Drive Point averages through the games of November 5. I’ll arrange them in matchup order late in the week. It’s been awhile since we looked at them from best to worst. And, this way we get to include next week’s bye teams too.

If you’re new to the site, Drive Points are those scored and allowed on drives of 60 yards or more as described in boxscores that itemize scoring drives or in drive charts. This focuses on the pure ability of offenses to drive the field, and defenses to prevent opponents from doing so. Special teams TD’s aren’t counted. Defensive TD’s aren’t counted. Cheap points off turnovers aren’t counted. Only points scored and allowed on drives of 60 yards or more.

Best Drive Point Offenses (more than 14): Denver 22.3, Chicago 18.0, Green Bay 16.6, Washington 16.1, Detroit 16.1, New Orleans 15.8, New England 15.8, San Diego 15.8, Philadelphia 15.6, San Francisco 15.1, Read more


Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




Monday Night Football Betting Recap: Bears win outright as double-digit underdogs

11.05.2013     07:07 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Aaron Rodgers was knocked out of the game relatively early, with something that everyone but ESPN was reporting as a fractured collarbone. If it turns out to be less severe than that, ESPN’s restraint will seem noble. If that’s the injury, their inability to report what everyone else was reporting…with a sideline reporter and bunch of others on site with nothing better to do during the game than find stuff like that out…it’s another black eye against the pseudo-journalism of the network.

As I’m typing this, a postgame graphic is calling it a “shoulder” issue. Let’s see what the news brings Tuesday. Don’t want to blast them if it turns out to be a shoulder separation or something like what Mark Sanchez had. A clavicle isn’t a shoulder. We’ll see.

Chicago 27 (+10), Green Bay 20

Chicago: 442 yards, 5.9 per-play, 0 turnovers, 43% third downs

Green Bay: 312 yards, 5.7 Read more


Tags: NFL Chicago Bears Green Bay Packers Stat Intelligence




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: NFC News and Notes from Week 9

11.04.2013     08:06 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Welcome to Teddy’s unique look at the NFL. Teddy watches games all day on Sunday, typing furiously on his laptop while giving you the key info that the box scores and game recaps don’t necessarily have. This week: NFC thoughts and opinions from Week 9.

Dallas Cowboys – Dallas had faced four top notch QB's this year heading into the game: Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers and Matthew Stafford. All four threw for more than 400 yards against Monte Kiffin's defense. Here, Christian Ponder had consistent success throwing downfield. This defense just can't stop the pass, especially with DeMarcus Ware out again, negating any semblance of a pass rush. And there were no shortage of defensive breakdowns either – missed tackles, missed assignments and blown coverages.

Not impressed with the offensive line play today one iota. The Vikings got pressure on Tony Romo all afternoon. They signed former pro bowl guard Brian Waters out of retirement a few weeks ago as a desperation move, but he couldn’t stay healthy; already on IR. Back-to-back sacks killed a red zone chance here, forcing Dan Bailey's legs to get points, not Read more


Tags: NFL Dallas Cowboys St. Louis Rams Washington Redskins New Orleans Saints Minnesota Vikings Teddy Covers




NFL Gambling Preview: Washington Redskins at Denver Broncos

10.24.2013     12:24 PM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Washington at Denver
Sunday, 1:25 pm PT - FOX
CRIS Opener:
Denver -12 O/U 55
CRIS Current: Denver -11.5 O/U 57.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Denver -12
Rob Veno's Recommendation: Over

As the Broncos continue to show the betting public that you can mechanically play over in every one of their games, oddsmakers don’t seem to be posting a price tag high enough to deter that. This week, the Washington-Denver total was opened too low according to the early money and it’s been pushed from 55 all the way to the key number of 58 and in some shops, beyond. It’s important to note that on all occasions this season, Denver has had an opponent with at least one attribute which helped greatly in producing final scores totaling 58 or higher in six of seven contests. This week is no different as Washington rolls into Sports Authority Field at Mile High with a sieve of a defense (389.0 ypg, 30.7 ppg) and an offense Read more


Tags: NFL Washington Redskins Denver Broncos Rob Veno




NFL Betting News and Notes - Week 7

10.23.2013     08:28 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
I decided to switch things up with my weekly NFL News and Notes article this week by focusing on the obscene amount of key injuries. Sunday had to be close to a record number of injuries for one day’s worth of football and many of them are significant so I’m going to mention several of them and the impact they could have…

Chicago Bears
The Bears are dealing with a pair of key injuries suffered last week. Quarterback Jay Cutler went down with a torn groin muscle which will put him out of action for 4-6 weeks and linebacker Lance Briggs will miss approximately the same amount of time with a small fracture in his left shoulder. Most people will automatically look at Cutler’s absence being more significant but the loss of Briggs is undoubtedly an impact injury. Chicago’s defense has been sliced and diced whenever they aren’t forcing turnovers. Teams have been moving the football up and down against the Bears and putting up points with regularity. Briggs was one of the few players that had a positive impact throughout the season. He had eight tackles, one tackle for loss, and two passes defended against Washington Read more


Tags: NFL. Chicago Bears St. Louis Rams Cincinnati Bengals Houston Texans Indianapolis Colts Ian Cameron




NFL Handicapping: Second half betting trends for Week 7

10.18.2013     01:26 PM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
This week’s blog is a bit different than the previous weekly writings. I decided to go more specific this week and focused in on five Sunday NFL games that have some strong early season first half and second half betting trends. Let’s see if these continue to be money makers this weekend:  

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta
Tampa Bay is 1-4 ATS and 0-5 O/U in second half play this year. The Buccaneers have only had one 2H total score more than 13 points. Tampa has scored one field goal in their last three second halves combined. They lost the 2H 6-0 three weeks ago at New England, 13-0 two weeks ago at home vs. Arizona and 17-3 last week at home against Philadelphia. 

Atlanta is 1-4 ATS and 4-1 O/U in the 2H this season. All four pointspread losses are either as pick ‘em or an underdog, their lone cover was as a favorite. In the Falcons last four games, the 2H totals have resulted in 27 or more points.

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh
Baltimore has been a tremendous second half team rattling off five consecutive straight up and ATS wins. Until last week’s 17-13 2H win and cover against Green Read more


Tags: NFL Rob Veno




Thursday Night Football Betting Recap: Eli Throws More Picks, Louisville Misses Kicks

10.11.2013     07:07 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Kind of a sloppy night in football. In the two early games everyone was watching…Giants/Bears and Rutgers/Louisville…everybody committed at least three turnovers but Chicago. And, they missed so many tackles and played such crappy defense that they didn’t exactly sparkle as a team in their victory. Let’s crunch the numbers…

(If you’re new to the site, “Drive Points” are those scored on drives of 60 yards or more. “Stat Score” is an estimate of what the final score should have been based only on rushing and passing yardage. The formula for that is 2 times rushing yardage…plus passing yardage…times 0.67…divided by 15. Sloppiness is a quickfire stat to measure execution…the formula is 5 times giveaways plus the number of incomplete passes…lower is better because you want to avoid sloppiness)

Chicago 27, NY Giants 21 (+9.5)

NYG: 355 yards, 6.7 per-play, 3 Read more


Tags: NFL Chicago Bears New York Giants College Football Louisville Cardinals Rutgers Scarlet Knights AAC Stat Intelligence



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, Ian Cameron, and Paul Stone. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Sep 01, 2014 09:14 PM.