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NFL Gambling Preview: St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers

11.27.2013     01:29 PM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
St. Louis at San Francisco
Sunday, 1 pm PT - FOX
CRIS Opener:
San Francisco -9.5 O/U 41.5
CRIS Current: San Francisco -8 O/U 41.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: San Francisco -12
Ian Cameron's Recommendation: St. Louis

NFC West teams will collide on Sunday when the St. Louis Rams and San Francisco 49ers square off at Candlestick Park. St. Louis has been able to turn the corner despite Sam Bradford’s season-ending ACL injury. Backup Kellen Clemens has been serviceable, the running game has taken off with Zac Stacy and Benny Cunningham, and we’ve seen the wide receiver corps step up and make plays – most notably, Tavon Austin. It is however worth noting Stacy suffered a concussion during last week’s win over Chicago and his status is currently questionable. But even if he’s out, the Rams have found ways to own the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball in their last two games against Read more


Tags: NFL St. Louis Rams San Francisco 49ers Ian Cameron




NFL Handicapping: Drive Point Averages Week 12

11.20.2013     08:14 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I was able to put together updated Drive Point averages early this week. The math is so easy when almost everyone’s played exactly 10 games! I also wanted to include strength of schedule data for each team as well, because that can pollute the numbers a smidge. I usually go to Sagarin for those (USA Today). And, his are usually in the neighborhood of Football Outsiders to. Figured I’d grab those too. Then, I can get any feng shui stuff out of my system now so I don’t have to write up a full report.

The numbers you see below are per-game Drive Point averages for every offense and defense. Drive Points are those scored and allowed on Drives of 60 yards or more. All other scoring is excluded (shorter drives, defensive points, special teams points). We’re looking to capture as best as possible each team’s ability to drive the field for points on offense, while preventing opponents from doing so.

In parenthesis, I’ve put the strength of schedule Read more


Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: NFC Super Bowl Contenders

11.18.2013     12:31 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
It’s late November.  Thanksgiving is next week.  And that means it’s time for me to take a break from my typical team notes column that I’ve been writing here in the Vegas Wiseguy Report since the start of the NFL season.

It’s time to focus on the big boys – teams with playoff aspirations.  Who can get hot down the stretch and make us some money winning games and covering pointspreads?  Which squads are legitimate Super Bowl contenders; which are pretenders.  Let’s take look through the NFC this week, gauging which squads have ATS value moving forward, and which squads have already reached their zenith, poised to tumble back to earth down the stretch.

I did not include notes on Carolina (they don’t play till Monday Night) and Dallas (on bye this week) due to space limitations.  That leaves Philadelphia, the New York Giants, Detroit, Chicago, Green Bay, New Orleans, Seattle, San Francisco and Arizona to consider; all of whom remain live for the postseason as Week 12 approaches.

Serious Super Bowl Contenders

Seattle Seahawks - I Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




NFL Handicapping: Feng Shui/Analytics Part II

11.15.2013     06:05 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

A week ago, I posted some notes and thoughts about what seemed to be significant ranking differences for certain NFL teams at the most widely known “analytics” sites.

There’s no need for you to go back and read the whole thing on a link. I’ll provide one at the end if you missed that article.

In short, I mentioned how the whole thing reminded me of a Penn & Teller segment on Feng Shui on their Showtime series. Different practitioners said they were using “science.” But, they got wildly different conclusions in a way that suggested to observers that there wasn’t a meaningful “there” there when it was all said and done. This guy thinks the couch should be here…that guy thinks Cincinnati should be ranked #1. Use common sense to put your couch in front of the TV…use common sense to rank Cincinnati off the pace of the truly elite but in the mix of potential darkhorses…what’s being called Read more


Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




NFL Gambling Preview: Baltimore Ravens at Chicago Bears

11.14.2013     01:26 PM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Baltimore at Chicago
Sunday, 10 am PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
Chicago -3 O/U 47
CRIS Current: Chicago -3 O/U 45
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Chicago -3
Ian Cameron's Recommendation: Chicago

I just can’t recommend a bet in this price range right now with the Baltimore Ravens especially playing away from M&T Bank Stadium. Baltimore is a shell of the Super Bowl team from a year ago. There is zero downfield passing game as Joe Flacco has struggled mightily with 6.4 yards per attempt and a 12-11 TD-INT ratio. They can’t run the football either with Ray Rice averaging just 2.5 yards per carry. The defense clearly hasn’t been the same after losing veteran leadership from the likes of Ray Lewis and Ed Reed in the offseason. As a team they rank middle of the pack in the NFL in total defense allowing 342.2 yards per game. Baltimore is 4-5 on the season including a 1-3 SU/ATS run. That is not the kind of track Read more


Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens Chicago Bears Ian Cameron




NFL Handicapping: Drive Point Averages Week 10

11.10.2013     06:57 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Drive Points are those scored and allowed on drives of 60 yards or more. What you see below are per-game averages on offense and defense for each team. Quick standards if you weren’t with us earlier in the week:

Below 12: bad on offense, good on defense

12-14: near league average

Above 14: good on offense bad on defense

I present the games in market rotation order so you can make notes in your schedules if you wish. Otherwise…you know…there’s NO WAY I would start off with a horrible game like Jacksonville/Tennessee

Jacksonville:  4.5 on offense, 17.3 on defense

Tennessee: 11.0 on offense, 13.3 on defense

(Jacksonville has one of the worst offenses of the modern era to this point in the season. Will be fun watching them and Tampa Bay battle from 0-8 to try and get the top draft Read more


Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




NFL Handicapping: Feng Shui/Analytics

11.07.2013     06:45 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I talked about this some in past seasons…how we keep seeing such differences in team rankings amongst the various “analytic” approaches that get media play across the landscape. I mostly stayed away from what those sites were saying this year. But, the recent talk about how poorly some of those approaches have done against market prices got me to thinking about it again.

So, I dropped in on Football Outsiders today, and saw they had the Chicago Bears ranked  #4 in the NFL in their “weighted DVOA.” Now…we KNOW that the Chicago Bears aren’t the fourth best team in pro football. That jumped right out. Figured I’d check out what Brian Burke’s Advanced NFL Stats site had in their rankings. And, Cincinnati was sitting at the top of the heap even though they lost to Miami last week. Again, we KNOW that the Cincinnati Bengals aren’t the best team in the NFL. Obviously it’s time to revisit the topic.

This stuff Read more


Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




NFL Handicapping: Best and Worst Drive Point Performances

11.06.2013     07:11 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Here are offensive and defensive Drive Point averages through the games of November 5. I’ll arrange them in matchup order late in the week. It’s been awhile since we looked at them from best to worst. And, this way we get to include next week’s bye teams too.

If you’re new to the site, Drive Points are those scored and allowed on drives of 60 yards or more as described in boxscores that itemize scoring drives or in drive charts. This focuses on the pure ability of offenses to drive the field, and defenses to prevent opponents from doing so. Special teams TD’s aren’t counted. Defensive TD’s aren’t counted. Cheap points off turnovers aren’t counted. Only points scored and allowed on drives of 60 yards or more.

Best Drive Point Offenses (more than 14): Denver 22.3, Chicago 18.0, Green Bay 16.6, Washington 16.1, Detroit 16.1, New Orleans 15.8, New England 15.8, San Diego 15.8, Philadelphia 15.6, San Francisco 15.1, Read more


Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




Monday Night Football Betting Recap: Bears win outright as double-digit underdogs

11.05.2013     07:07 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Aaron Rodgers was knocked out of the game relatively early, with something that everyone but ESPN was reporting as a fractured collarbone. If it turns out to be less severe than that, ESPN’s restraint will seem noble. If that’s the injury, their inability to report what everyone else was reporting…with a sideline reporter and bunch of others on site with nothing better to do during the game than find stuff like that out…it’s another black eye against the pseudo-journalism of the network.

As I’m typing this, a postgame graphic is calling it a “shoulder” issue. Let’s see what the news brings Tuesday. Don’t want to blast them if it turns out to be a shoulder separation or something like what Mark Sanchez had. A clavicle isn’t a shoulder. We’ll see.

Chicago 27 (+10), Green Bay 20

Chicago: 442 yards, 5.9 per-play, 0 turnovers, 43% third downs

Green Bay: 312 yards, 5.7 Read more


Tags: NFL Chicago Bears Green Bay Packers Stat Intelligence




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: NFC News and Notes from Week 9

11.04.2013     08:06 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Welcome to Teddy’s unique look at the NFL. Teddy watches games all day on Sunday, typing furiously on his laptop while giving you the key info that the box scores and game recaps don’t necessarily have. This week: NFC thoughts and opinions from Week 9.

Dallas Cowboys – Dallas had faced four top notch QB's this year heading into the game: Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Philip Rivers and Matthew Stafford. All four threw for more than 400 yards against Monte Kiffin's defense. Here, Christian Ponder had consistent success throwing downfield. This defense just can't stop the pass, especially with DeMarcus Ware out again, negating any semblance of a pass rush. And there were no shortage of defensive breakdowns either – missed tackles, missed assignments and blown coverages.

Not impressed with the offensive line play today one iota. The Vikings got pressure on Tony Romo all afternoon. They signed former pro bowl guard Brian Waters out of retirement a few weeks ago as a desperation move, but he couldn’t stay healthy; already on IR. Back-to-back sacks killed a red zone chance here, forcing Dan Bailey's legs to get points, not Read more


Tags: NFL Dallas Cowboys St. Louis Rams Washington Redskins New Orleans Saints Minnesota Vikings Teddy Covers



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, Ian Cameron, and Paul Stone. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Sep 22, 2014 09:17 PM.