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October

25

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NFL Handicapping: Drive Point Averages Week 16

12.20.2013     07:40 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Are you missing NFL football on a Thursday night? Here are this week’s Drive Point averages to help you make it to the weekend. Games are presented market rotation order. If you’re new to the blog, these are per-game averages for points scored and allowed on drives of 60 yards or more (weeding out all defensive points, special teams points, and otherwise “cheap” points from drives of 59 yards or less as itemized in standard boxscores). The first sent of parenthesis shows the current strength of schedule rankings from Jeff Sagarin of USA Today and Football Outsiders (in that order). The second set of parenthesis shows turnover differential to this point in the season.

That composite helps you visualize strengths, weaknesses, and team styles for all 32 teams. Sometimes they help you find matchup advantages in a given game. Here we go…

Miami: 11.8 on offense, 12.3 on defense (14-6) (+2 turnovers)

Buffalo: 11.4 on offense, Read more


Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: NFL Pointspread Plays of the Year

12.16.2013     12:55 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Last year, I wrote a Pointspread Plays of the Year NFL article at this stage of the season, at a time of year when Top 10 lists seem to formulate out of thin air.  It was so much fun to write, I decided to do it again this year, even though there was no clear Pointspread Play of the Year like we had last year with the Seahawks-Packers final play Hail Mary TD on Monday Night Football!

In my world, there’s nothing better than a right side winner – no drama, no sweating; an easy rocking chair cover. Of course, cashing nothing but right side winners is MUCH easier said than done.  In the real world, there are so many games that come down to a single key late play that determines the SU and/or ATS winner. I’ve gone back through my notes, looking at the some of the wackiest pointspread outcomes of the year – the really memorable ones. End of the year Top 10 lists are so passé, so I’ll call this my Top 8 Pointspread Plays of the Year.  Let’s start the countdown with Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




NFL Handicapping: Drive Point Averages Week 15

12.12.2013     11:45 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

What you see below are per-game averages on offense and defense for points scored and allowed on drives of 60 yards or more. That's a stat I've been keeping myself by hand from itemized scoring drives in boxscores ever since the USA Today started publishing them many years ago. In the first parenthesis are strength of schedule rankings from Jeff Sagarin at USA Today and Football Outsiders (in that order, and, largely converging now). In the second parenthesis is turnover differential. Games are presented in market rotation order. I tried to line up the numbers as best as possible by abbreviating some of the team cities…

Thursday

San Diego: 14.6 on offense, 16.1 on defense (19-31) (-3 turnovers)

Denver : 23.3 on offense, 15.0 on defense (20-29) (-2 turnovers)

Football Outsiders has mentioned somewhere that San Diego supposedly has one of the five worst defenses in the history of their stat methodology. I mean…it’s pretty Read more


Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




Monday Night Football Betting Recap: Bears roll past awful Cowboys defense

12.10.2013     06:52 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

The Dallas defense…which is bad at tackling in the best of conditions…REALLY didn’t want to play physical football in the sub-zero wind chill of a December night in Chicago. The Bears scored on their first eight drives of the evening. The ninth was taking a knee to run the final second off the game clock before everyone could head to the locker to warm up.

Chicago 45 (-2), Dallas 28

Dallas: 342 yards, 6.0 per-play, 0 turnovers, 50% third downs

Chicago: 498 yards, 7.1 per-play, 0 turnovers, 73% third downs

Other Numbers

Dallas: 198 rush, 14-25-0-144 passing, 28 drive points, 24 stat score, 11 sloppiness

Chicago: 150 rush, 27-36-0-348 passing, 32 drive points, 29 stat score, 9 sloppiness

For those of you wondering, the pace factor was a very low 133. The ultimate clock eating game because neither team wanted to stay out in those conditions. And, Chicago loves running clock anyway. Read more


Tags: NFL Chicago Bears Dallas Cowboys Stat Intelligence




NFL Handicapping: Drive Point Averages Week 14

12.05.2013     08:36 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Here are per-game Drive Point averages on offense and defense for all 32 teams…arranged in schedule rotation order. If you’re new to the website, Drive Points are only those scored on drives of 60 yards or more. Special teams and defensive scoring isn’t counted, nor are “cheap” points scored off field position. The goal is to get a clean a read as possible on “pure” offense and defense in terms of driving the field for points, and preventing the opposition from doing so.

Strength of schedule rankings from Sagarin at USA Today and Football Outsiders are in the first parenthesis (in that order) to provide some extra context for you, followed by this season’s turnover differential in the second parenthesis…

Thursday

Houston: 10.8 on offense, 13.5 on defense (6-15) (-12 turnovers)

Jacksonville: 6.2 on offense, 16.7 on defense (2-10) (-4 turnovers)

(Houston is 10.1 and 13.2 in the Read more


Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




NFL Gambling Preview: St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers

11.27.2013     01:29 PM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
St. Louis at San Francisco
Sunday, 1 pm PT - FOX
CRIS Opener:
San Francisco -9.5 O/U 41.5
CRIS Current: San Francisco -8 O/U 41.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: San Francisco -12
Ian Cameron's Recommendation: St. Louis

NFC West teams will collide on Sunday when the St. Louis Rams and San Francisco 49ers square off at Candlestick Park. St. Louis has been able to turn the corner despite Sam Bradford’s season-ending ACL injury. Backup Kellen Clemens has been serviceable, the running game has taken off with Zac Stacy and Benny Cunningham, and we’ve seen the wide receiver corps step up and make plays – most notably, Tavon Austin. It is however worth noting Stacy suffered a concussion during last week’s win over Chicago and his status is currently questionable. But even if he’s out, the Rams have found ways to own the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball in their last two games against Read more


Tags: NFL St. Louis Rams San Francisco 49ers Ian Cameron




NFL Handicapping: Drive Point Averages Week 12

11.20.2013     08:14 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I was able to put together updated Drive Point averages early this week. The math is so easy when almost everyone’s played exactly 10 games! I also wanted to include strength of schedule data for each team as well, because that can pollute the numbers a smidge. I usually go to Sagarin for those (USA Today). And, his are usually in the neighborhood of Football Outsiders to. Figured I’d grab those too. Then, I can get any feng shui stuff out of my system now so I don’t have to write up a full report.

The numbers you see below are per-game Drive Point averages for every offense and defense. Drive Points are those scored and allowed on Drives of 60 yards or more. All other scoring is excluded (shorter drives, defensive points, special teams points). We’re looking to capture as best as possible each team’s ability to drive the field for points on offense, while preventing opponents from doing so.

In parenthesis, I’ve put the strength of schedule Read more


Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: NFC Super Bowl Contenders

11.18.2013     12:31 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
It’s late November.  Thanksgiving is next week.  And that means it’s time for me to take a break from my typical team notes column that I’ve been writing here in the Vegas Wiseguy Report since the start of the NFL season.

It’s time to focus on the big boys – teams with playoff aspirations.  Who can get hot down the stretch and make us some money winning games and covering pointspreads?  Which squads are legitimate Super Bowl contenders; which are pretenders.  Let’s take look through the NFC this week, gauging which squads have ATS value moving forward, and which squads have already reached their zenith, poised to tumble back to earth down the stretch.

I did not include notes on Carolina (they don’t play till Monday Night) and Dallas (on bye this week) due to space limitations.  That leaves Philadelphia, the New York Giants, Detroit, Chicago, Green Bay, New Orleans, Seattle, San Francisco and Arizona to consider; all of whom remain live for the postseason as Week 12 approaches.

Serious Super Bowl Contenders

Seattle Seahawks - I Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




NFL Handicapping: Feng Shui/Analytics Part II

11.15.2013     06:05 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

A week ago, I posted some notes and thoughts about what seemed to be significant ranking differences for certain NFL teams at the most widely known “analytics” sites.

There’s no need for you to go back and read the whole thing on a link. I’ll provide one at the end if you missed that article.

In short, I mentioned how the whole thing reminded me of a Penn & Teller segment on Feng Shui on their Showtime series. Different practitioners said they were using “science.” But, they got wildly different conclusions in a way that suggested to observers that there wasn’t a meaningful “there” there when it was all said and done. This guy thinks the couch should be here…that guy thinks Cincinnati should be ranked #1. Use common sense to put your couch in front of the TV…use common sense to rank Cincinnati off the pace of the truly elite but in the mix of potential darkhorses…what’s being called Read more


Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




NFL Gambling Preview: Baltimore Ravens at Chicago Bears

11.14.2013     01:26 PM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Baltimore at Chicago
Sunday, 10 am PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
Chicago -3 O/U 47
CRIS Current: Chicago -3 O/U 45
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Chicago -3
Ian Cameron's Recommendation: Chicago

I just can’t recommend a bet in this price range right now with the Baltimore Ravens especially playing away from M&T Bank Stadium. Baltimore is a shell of the Super Bowl team from a year ago. There is zero downfield passing game as Joe Flacco has struggled mightily with 6.4 yards per attempt and a 12-11 TD-INT ratio. They can’t run the football either with Ray Rice averaging just 2.5 yards per carry. The defense clearly hasn’t been the same after losing veteran leadership from the likes of Ray Lewis and Ed Reed in the offseason. As a team they rank middle of the pack in the NFL in total defense allowing 342.2 yards per game. Baltimore is 4-5 on the season including a 1-3 SU/ATS run. That is not the kind of track Read more


Tags: NFL Baltimore Ravens Chicago Bears Ian Cameron



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, Ian Cameron, and Paul Stone. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Oct 25, 2014 08:36 PM.