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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Power Ratings 1-32

09.07.2015     08:57 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The NFL regular season starts on Thursday.  Here’s how I have the 32 teams ranked heading into the campaign, with a quick blurb each squad.

1. New England Patriots - With Tom Brady set to open the season as the starting quarterback, the defending champs are the team to beat, worthy of my #1 ranking heading into the regular season.

2. Seattle Seahawks - Seattle enjoyed the best yards-per-rush differential between offense and defense last year, but they’ve got significant offensive line question marks as they head to St Louis for Week 1.

3. Green Bay Packers - The Packers passing game was second to none in the NFL last year, but the loss of Jordy Nelson leaves Aaron Rodgers without his top target for the entire season.

4. Indianapolis Colts - Most elite contenders face a tougher than average schedule because they’ve got to face other contending teams.  Indy, however, plays only four games against playoff teams from last year.

5. Denver Broncos - Peyton Manning is the oldest starting quarterback in the NFL by a wide margin, and he’s coming off a season where his arm strength noticeably declined down the Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




NFL Gambling Update: New England Patriots now favored to win AFC title

09.04.2015     07:14 AM     Printer Friendly
UPDATE

Update on New England's future odds courtesy of The Greek now that Tom Brady has been cleared to play.

Odds to Win Super Bowl 50: +550

Odds to Win AFC Championship: +285

Odds to Win AFC East: -285

Season Over/Under Wins: 10.5ov-145

NFL MVP: Tom Brady +2000





NFL Gambling Alert: Brady cleared to play; Pats -6.5/-7 vs. Steelers Week 1

09.03.2015     07:54 AM     View Original Blog


So this just happened. Tom Brady's suspension was officially lifted which means he'll suit up for Week 1's game Read more



Tags: NFL New England Patriots




NFL Gambling Alert: Brady cleared to play; Pats -6.5/-7 vs. Steelers Week 1

09.03.2015     07:54 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
So this just happened. Tom Brady's suspension was officially lifted which means he'll suit up for Week 1's game vs. Pittsburgh. It also means oddsmakers are scrambling to post an updated pointspread. CG Technology originally opened the game New England -6.5 back in April before Deflategate went public. Assuming Brady would be suspended, the Pats hovered around -2.5/-3. Now that Brady has been cleared to play CG reopened -6 and it was later bet up to -6.5. Pinnacle reopened -7 where it currently stands. Same deal for Heritage and BetOnline. Las Vegas' William Hill is -6.5.




Tags: NFL New England Patriots Pittsburgh Steelers




NFL Preseason Free Betting Pick: New England Patriots at Carolina Panthers

08.28.2015     09:43 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
New England pk at Carolina O/U 44
Recommendation: New England


There’s a very different mentality between the Patriots and the Panthers as they head into their preseason Week 3 matchup tonight.  New England’s starters got crushed by the Saints last week, allowing three TDs and a FG before the offense produced a single point.  Bill Belichick was not amused.  His quote speaks volumes about why the Patriots are worthy of a wager this evening:

 “We weren’t very good on either side of the ball, or in the kicking game. Bad coaching, bad playing, put it all down. We weren’t very good……I think an important week for us in terms of starting to develop a little bit of a routine, especially for players that haven’t been in this program before for them to understand what the expectations are, what the routine is, where they should be at various points during the week leading up to the game.”

Patriots running back Jonas Gray, talking about the sense of urgency for a much better showing tonight: “It’s huge.  We want to go out there and we want to win Read more



Tags: NFL New England Patriots Carolina Panthers Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Preseason Week 2 Betting Recap

08.24.2015     08:14 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
In the NFL Preseason, when coaches almost never play for a late game tie to force overtime, there’s an enormous difference between laying -1 and -2.5.  Games decided by final margins or 1 or 2 points are relatively rare once September rolls around.  In August, they are commonplace.   Three games were decided by a single point this past weekend, in Week 2 of the preseason, with the Bills beating the Browns 11-10, the Chiefs beating the Seahawks 14-13 and the Panthers beating the Dolphins 31-30.

Both Kansas City-Seattle and Carolina-Miami produced a win, loss or push based on betting skills, not handicapping skills, with lines on both games moving up throughout the course of the week.   In addition, the Patriots pulled off the comeback of the weekend to beat New Orleans 26-24, a two point margin.  Meanwhile, there was only one game finishing with a final margin of three points; the Chargers 22-19 win at Arizona. 

It was a similar story in Week 1, with more games finishing with 1 or 2 point final margins than games that were decided by exactly three points.   With two more weeks of these meaningless Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: How to bet NFL Season O/U Wins Part II

08.10.2015     10:17 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Last week in this space, I looked back at last year’s final NFL standings and discussed the impact of strength of schedule models on those results.  I differentiated between mainstream widely available numbers for the 2014 strength of schedule (simply adding up wins and losses for every opponent) and my own formula, relying on power rating numbers from the week that the game was played. 

The goal was simple -- getting more accurate numbers to properly assess last year’s results in strength of schedule context as a starting point for 2015.

We’re done with last year now. This week, I’ll focus on the 2015 NFL strength of schedule as they relate to season win totals.  Once again, my goal is to differentiate between the mainstream numbers and the meaningful ones.

Google ‘2015 NFL Strength of Schedule’ and you’ll find countless charts exactly like this one.
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (.579)
2. Cincinnati Bengals (.563)
3. Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Las Vegas




NFL Handicapping: Las Vegas oddsmakers react to Deflategate

08.05.2015     01:42 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Las Vegas oddsmakers talk about Tom Brady's suspension and how it has impacted their lines as well as placing limits on New England's season over/under wins.


"Home team, capable backup [quarterback]," Rood said in explaining New England's favored status in the opener. "We've put some strong limits on it. If Brady plays, that number could jump to six."

"From what I'm hearing, Jimmy G is going to be more than a capable replacement and [Patriots Coach Bill] Belichick usually always gets his guys ready to go," Rood said about the 10 1/2 number.

"What I don't want to do is have a knee-jerk reaction."






Tags: NFL New England Patriots Las Vegas




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: How to bet NFL Season O/U Wins Part I

08.03.2015     10:33 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
When looking at the entirety of the NFL futures market, Super Bowl odds and odds to win divisions or conferences only give bettors one choice – betting ON a particular team.  Then that team has to beat out all of their competition to win the division/conference/Super Bowl for you to cash, offering the potential for big payday longshot returns, but cashing a low percentage of the wagers that are made.

NFL Season O/U Win totals, on the other hand, offer bettors the opportunity to bet AGAINST teams in relatively low juice situations.  And with win totals, even when betting Overs, the team you are betting on doesn’t have to win anything big. 

For example, the Buffalo Bills didn’t win their division last year; unable to get past mighty New England.  They didn’t win the AFC or the Super Bowl.  But they cashed every Over ticket that was bet on their season win total before December rolled around.  Buffalo’s 9-7 campaign offered a no sweat positive return-on-investment for a squad lined at 6.5 or 7 wins prior to the season.

In my opinion, NFL win totals remain among the most profitable set of wagers Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Las Vegas




NFL Gambling Update: Brady suspended first four games of regular season

07.28.2015     02:31 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Looks like the New England Patriots really won't have Tom Brady the first four games of the regular season (vs. Pittsburgh, at Buffalo, vs. Jacksonville, and at Dallas). The NFL announced today that the suspension was upheld. As a result, there isn't much in the way of betting options for New England's Week 1 game vs. the Steelers. CRIS never posted a line. Pinnacle, Heritage, and 5Dimes took it down in early July (New England -3). As of today, CG Technology looks to be the only sportsbooks offering a real pointspread with the Patriots dropped from -3-120 to -1.5 following the news.


"The Commissioner's decision is deeply disappointing, but not surprising because the appeal process was thoroughly lacking in procedural fairness," Brady's agent, Don Yee, said Tuesday. "Most importantly, neither Tom nor the Patriots did anything wrong. And the NFL has no evidence that anything inappropriate occurred. The appeal process was a sham, resulting in the Commissioner rubber-stamping his own decision."






Tags: NFL New England Patriots




NFL Handicapping: No word on Brady's suspension; Patriots jump to -3 vs. Steelers

07.07.2015     08:57 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The 4th of July holiday weekend came and went and still no word on Tom Brady's suspension. Most suspected the NFL would "dump" it last Friday when no one was looking. Instead, bettors remain left in the dark as to how many games Brady will be suspended. As of now, it's still four games which means he's out for Week 1's Thursday night affair against Pittsburgh. After sitting at -2.5 for a month and a half, the Patriots have seen enough action to push the line to -3 at nearly every offshore and Las Vegas sportsbook.




Tags: NFL New England Patriots Pittsburgh Steelers



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