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NFL Handicapping: Injury concerns for New England Patriots and Houston Texans
12.05.2012 02:06 PM
Printer Friendly
Houston
at
New England
-3 O/U 51.5
Two good breakdowns on all of the
offensive injuries
for New England and
defensive injuries
for Houston heading into Monday night's showdown in Foxboro. Most of the money this week has come in on the underdog. The Patriots opened -4.5 but you can currently find as cheap as -3 (-120) offshore.
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New England Patriots
Houston Texans
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Teddy Covers' Wiseguy Report: Looking at the contenders in the AFC
12.03.2012 09:49 AM
Teddy Covers
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers
I spent the last few Sunday’s concentrating on some pretty bad football teams. It’s December now; time to shift my focus towards the other end of the spectrum. This week, I focused on four AFC Playoff contenders. Which teams have the potential to do some damage when January rolls around and which are frauds? Read on to find out!
Indianapolis
- Indy is certainly not a Super Bowl contender. But given that they were seven point underdogs at 4-7 Detroit, the betting markets aren’t even calling the Colts a playoff caliber team. Even with starting cornerback Vontae Davis back in the lineup following a four game injury absence, the pass defense spent all afternoon getting torched. Where's the pass rush? Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis were non-factors here.
The offensive line got dominated by Detroit’s front four for most of the afternoon. Andrew Luck was beaten up, taking one big hit after the next. Coming into the game with four fumbles and 10 INTs in five previous road games, Luck's emphasis was on ball security here. That emphasis didn’t work. He hit seven different receivers in the first half, but also threw a pair
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New England Patriots
Baltimore Ravens
Houston Texans
Teddy Covers
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NFL Betting: New England Patriots and Houston Texans top consensus plays for Week 13
12.02.2012 07:47 AM
Printer Friendly
Quick run through of the top consensus plays for NFL Week 13 according to Bookmaker. Note that the percentages represent the number of bets made on a side/total/moneyline.
Top Sides
New England -7 88.2%
Houston -7 86.9%
Carolina -3 83.0%
Cincinnati -1 80.8%
San Francisco -7 80.6%
Top Totals
Indianapolis-Detroit OVER 51 82.2%
Philadelphia-Dallas OVER 44 80.4%
Minnesota-Green Bay OVER 47 77.2%
New England-Miami OVER 51 75.0%
San Francisco-St. Louis OVER 40.5 74.6%
Top Moneylines
Oakland +115 100.0%
Indianapolis +275 77.9%
Green Bay -375 75.7%
New England -365 69.4%
Kansas City +190 67.7%
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New England Patriots
Houston Texans
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NFL Betting News and Notes Week 10
11.14.2012 12:12 PM
ICC
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Submitted by ICC
The New England Patriots may need to be put on “automatic fade” watch laying double-digits at this point. They once again came up short as big chalk against Buffalo in a 37-31 win laying -13.5 points. That makes New England 0-3 ATS in that role this season including an outright loss to Arizona. The Patriots just aren’t playing anything close to the level of championship caliber defense right now to be trusted laying double-digits. The Pats run defense allowed over 100 yards to the Bills and the secondary was picked apart by Ryan Fitzpatrick who threw for 337 passing yards. Defensive stats like that won’t cash many tickets in that kind of price range.
The Philadelphia Eagles downward spiral continued on Sunday. They are a dead team walking right now. The body language is awful. Head coach Andy Reid is firmly on the hot seat. The offensive line can't protect anyone from teeing off on ailing quarterback Michael Vick. The run game has been non-existent. The defense has been a sieve in recent weeks giving up big plays against both the pass and the run. They’ve been guilty of taking numerous defensive holding, illegal contact and PI penalties
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New England Patriots
Philadelphia Eagles
Denver Broncos
Ian Cameron
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Teddy Covers' Wiseguy Report: AFC Contenders and Pretenders
11.12.2012 11:47 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
November is the time in the NFL where we separate contenders from pretenders. Last week, I focused on the NFC; this week, I’ll turn to the AFC. Unfortunately, the Colts and Steelers didn’t play on Sunday, and the Texans’ Sunday Night game was played in weather conditions that affected the game (and the game plan) significantly. Who among the rest can challenge for AFC supremacy? Read on to find out.
Denver Broncos
- Another slow start for a West Coast team traveling East; certainly not unusual. Slow starts have been a consistent problem for Denver all year. We saw them fall behind by three scores when they faced Atlanta, Houston and San Diego – three of the tougher foes they've faced. But slow starts are about the only fault I can find with this team right now.
We already know how good Denver’s offense can be, and they score touchdowns : 22 TDs in 32 red zone possessions. The Broncos have an elite quarterback, a strong running game and playmaking WR's - they can trade points with anybody. This team's postseason future rests on the strength (or weakness) of their stop unit; a unit that has stepped up at times and
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New England Patriots
San Diego Chargers
Baltimore Ravens
Denver Broncos
Miami Dolphins
Teddy Covers
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NFL Gambling Preview: Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
11.08.2012 07:45 AM
Alf Musketa
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Submitted by Alf Musketa
Buffalo
at
New England
Alf Musketa's Recommendation:
New England
Sunday, 10 am PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
New England -12 O/U 52
CRIS Current:
New England -11 O/U 52
Rob Veno Power Rating:
New England -11
Despite the fact that New England did not cover either game as a double-digit home favorite earlier this year (vs. Arizona -13 and NY Jets -11) we are still going to recommend the Patriots in this spot.
New England has owned the Buffalo Bills having won 22 of the past 24 games. Patriots head coach Bill Belichick is 22-4 lifetime against Buffalo conversely Bills head coach Chan Gailey is just 1-5 straight up versus New England. These teams met in Week 4 at Buffalo and New England shellacked the Bills 52-28. In that game Ryan Fitzpatrick had four interceptions and the Patriots’ running back duo of Stephan Ridley and Brandon Bolden had a coming out party and both ran for over 100 plus
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New England Patriots
Buffalo Bills
Alf Musketa
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Teddy Covers' Wiseguy Report: Pre- and Post-Bye Week Teams
10.29.2012 11:45 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Last week, I wrote about the three strongest prevailing angles for the 2012 NFL season. Let me update the numbers from a week ago.
NFC Underdogs – any underdog in any game – have gone 37-12-2 ATS this season. But that angle has now suffered back-to-back losing weeks, looking like it’s come and gone as the market has adjusted to reflect the NFC’s dominance – just 3-5 ATS in Week 8 after a 2-3-1 ATS mark in Week 7.
Teams heading into the bye week are now 1-14 ATS, discounting the games where one pre-bye team faced off against another. The Jets were the only team to fall into this category on Sunday, with the 49ers pending on Monday Night. This trend is still very live; 0-3 ATS over the past two weeks.
And teams coming out of the bye are on a 9-5 ATS streak; again discounting the games where one post-bye team faced another. But that trend seems to e flat lining: 2-2 ATS in Week 7 followed by another 2-2 ATS performance in Week 8.
What’s really going on with these pre-bye or post-bye squads? For the second straight week, I focused my attention on five teams in one of these two roles.
Miami
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Atlanta Falcons
New York Jets
New England Patriots
Miami Dolphins
Philadelphia Eagles
Teddy Covers
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NFL Gambling Preview: New England Patriots vs. St. Louis Rams
10.25.2012 03:11 PM
Alf Musketa
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Submitted by Alf Musketa
New England
vs.
St. Louis
Alf Musekta's Recommendation:
New England
Sunday, 10 am PT - CBS (London, England)
CRIS Opener:
New England -6.5 O/U 46.5
CRIS Current:
New England -7 O/U 46.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating:
New England -10
This game is being played at Wembley Stadium, in London, England and yes they have a retractable roof. St. Louis originally agreed to a three-year deal from 2012 -14 that they were going to compete in the NFL's U.K. series. The owner of the Rams is Stan Kroenke who also owns local soccer club Arsenal of the English Premier League and the agreement was a natural fit. However, the Rams administration staff and coaching staff convinced their owner that going across the pond every season was not a great idea physically and financially. Thus, the English fans and tabloids have run with this story that the Rams want no part in playing in their country. The Rams are technically the home team in
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New England Patriots
St. Louis Rams
Alf Musketa
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NFL Betting News and Notes Week 7
10.23.2012 12:44 PM
ICC
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Submitted by ICC
If the Washington Redskins learned anything after Sunday’s loss to the New York Giants, it would be not to allow Eli Manning the chance to have the football with his team trailing by one score in the final minutes. Robert Griffin III had a miraculous scramble play on a fourth down to keep a late fourth quarter drive alive en route to a terrific touchdown throw to Santana Moss which gave the Redskins a brief lead. It didn’t last long as Manning hit Victor Cruz for a 73-yard touchdown pass to give the Giants the win in a back and forth 27-23 affair. Despite the straight up win for New York, Washington got the ATS win and continue to cash tickets for their backers against their NFC East rivals. Washington is now 4-0 ATS against the G-Men dating back to January 2011.
I don’t think the term “right side winner” can be any more accurate than it was with the Houston Texans on Sunday. It was a dominant 43-13 win and easy 6.5-point home chalk cover for the Texans in which they outgained the Baltimore Ravens 420-176, had a huge 27-12 edge in first downs, and a +2 TO margin. Quarterback Joe Flacco and the Baltimore no-huddle offense continues to
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Ian Cameron
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Handicapper Alf Musketa's NFL and NCAAF Line Moves Report 10/23/2012
10.23.2012 08:24 AM
Alf Musketa
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Submitted by Alf Musketa
Clemson at Wake Forest
Clemson opened -14 now -12.5
Clemson made short work of Virginia Tech last week winning 38-17 and for some reason they were bet down from -9 to -7 – it seems that the sharp handicappers are wagering against the Tigers again here due to the home team advantages and I'll explain why. First, Thursday night home games are usually sold out; students do not miss this game on campus. I cannot recall when or if Wake Forest had a Thursday night contest, regardless, the work week after a Saturday game to prepare for a Thursday night game is basically two days, if you travel you might only get one good practice. Clemson is giving up 32 points per game so far in the ACC, while Wake Forest is not a high scoring team, they should put up some good numbers. I agree with the move.
Duke at Florida State
Florida State opened -25, now -27.5, -28
Not a huge move but a predictable one and going higher. Duke just became bowl eligible with a big win against arch rival North Carolina. The market players surely got a piece of this game. With Florida State, Clemson, Georgia Tech and Miami
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College Football
Alf Musketa
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