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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Preseason Week 2 Betting Recap

08.24.2015     08:14 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
In the NFL Preseason, when coaches almost never play for a late game tie to force overtime, there’s an enormous difference between laying -1 and -2.5.  Games decided by final margins or 1 or 2 points are relatively rare once September rolls around.  In August, they are commonplace.   Three games were decided by a single point this past weekend, in Week 2 of the preseason, with the Bills beating the Browns 11-10, the Chiefs beating the Seahawks 14-13 and the Panthers beating the Dolphins 31-30.

Both Kansas City-Seattle and Carolina-Miami produced a win, loss or push based on betting skills, not handicapping skills, with lines on both games moving up throughout the course of the week.   In addition, the Patriots pulled off the comeback of the weekend to beat New Orleans 26-24, a two point margin.  Meanwhile, there was only one game finishing with a final margin of three points; the Chargers 22-19 win at Arizona. 

It was a similar story in Week 1, with more games finishing with 1 or 2 point final margins than games that were decided by exactly three points.   With two more weeks of these meaningless Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: How to bet NFL Season O/U Wins Part II

08.10.2015     10:17 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Last week in this space, I looked back at last year’s final NFL standings and discussed the impact of strength of schedule models on those results.  I differentiated between mainstream widely available numbers for the 2014 strength of schedule (simply adding up wins and losses for every opponent) and my own formula, relying on power rating numbers from the week that the game was played. 

The goal was simple -- getting more accurate numbers to properly assess last year’s results in strength of schedule context as a starting point for 2015.

We’re done with last year now. This week, I’ll focus on the 2015 NFL strength of schedule as they relate to season win totals.  Once again, my goal is to differentiate between the mainstream numbers and the meaningful ones.

Google ‘2015 NFL Strength of Schedule’ and you’ll find countless charts exactly like this one.
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (.579)
2. Cincinnati Bengals (.563)
3. Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Las Vegas




NFL Handicapping: Las Vegas oddsmakers react to Deflategate

08.05.2015     01:42 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Las Vegas oddsmakers talk about Tom Brady's suspension and how it has impacted their lines as well as placing limits on New England's season over/under wins.


"Home team, capable backup [quarterback]," Rood said in explaining New England's favored status in the opener. "We've put some strong limits on it. If Brady plays, that number could jump to six."

"From what I'm hearing, Jimmy G is going to be more than a capable replacement and [Patriots Coach Bill] Belichick usually always gets his guys ready to go," Rood said about the 10 1/2 number.

"What I don't want to do is have a knee-jerk reaction."






Tags: NFL New England Patriots Las Vegas




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: How to bet NFL Season O/U Wins Part I

08.03.2015     10:33 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
When looking at the entirety of the NFL futures market, Super Bowl odds and odds to win divisions or conferences only give bettors one choice – betting ON a particular team.  Then that team has to beat out all of their competition to win the division/conference/Super Bowl for you to cash, offering the potential for big payday longshot returns, but cashing a low percentage of the wagers that are made.

NFL Season O/U Win totals, on the other hand, offer bettors the opportunity to bet AGAINST teams in relatively low juice situations.  And with win totals, even when betting Overs, the team you are betting on doesn’t have to win anything big. 

For example, the Buffalo Bills didn’t win their division last year; unable to get past mighty New England.  They didn’t win the AFC or the Super Bowl.  But they cashed every Over ticket that was bet on their season win total before December rolled around.  Buffalo’s 9-7 campaign offered a no sweat positive return-on-investment for a squad lined at 6.5 or 7 wins prior to the season.

In my opinion, NFL win totals remain among the most profitable set of wagers Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Las Vegas




NFL Gambling Update: Brady suspended first four games of regular season

07.28.2015     02:31 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Looks like the New England Patriots really won't have Tom Brady the first four games of the regular season (vs. Pittsburgh, at Buffalo, vs. Jacksonville, and at Dallas). The NFL announced today that the suspension was upheld. As a result, there isn't much in the way of betting options for New England's Week 1 game vs. the Steelers. CRIS never posted a line. Pinnacle, Heritage, and 5Dimes took it down in early July (New England -3). As of today, CG Technology looks to be the only sportsbooks offering a real pointspread with the Patriots dropped from -3-120 to -1.5 following the news.


"The Commissioner's decision is deeply disappointing, but not surprising because the appeal process was thoroughly lacking in procedural fairness," Brady's agent, Don Yee, said Tuesday. "Most importantly, neither Tom nor the Patriots did anything wrong. And the NFL has no evidence that anything inappropriate occurred. The appeal process was a sham, resulting in the Commissioner rubber-stamping his own decision."






Tags: NFL New England Patriots




NFL Handicapping: No word on Brady's suspension; Patriots jump to -3 vs. Steelers

07.07.2015     08:57 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The 4th of July holiday weekend came and went and still no word on Tom Brady's suspension. Most suspected the NFL would "dump" it last Friday when no one was looking. Instead, bettors remain left in the dark as to how many games Brady will be suspended. As of now, it's still four games which means he's out for Week 1's Thursday night affair against Pittsburgh. After sitting at -2.5 for a month and a half, the Patriots have seen enough action to push the line to -3 at nearly every offshore and Las Vegas sportsbook.




Tags: NFL New England Patriots Pittsburgh Steelers




NFL Gambling Update: Brady-less Patriots settle in at -2.5 for Week 1 vs. Steelers

05.18.2015     02:46 PM     Printer Friendly
UPDATE

Now that everyone has had a chance to return their heart rate to normal following the announcement that Tom Brady will be suspended for the first four games of the regular season (could be less following his obligatory appeal), a handful of offshore and Las Vegas sportsbooks have posted bettable lines for Week 1's game vs. Pittsburgh. Here's what we got...

Pinnacle: New England -2.5 O/U N/A
5Dimes: New England -2.5 O/U 49
BetOnline: New England -2.5 O/U 48.5
CG (Cantor): New England -2.5 O/U 49.5
Westgate (LVH): New England -2.5 O/U 49
Golden Nugget/Stations: New England -2 O/U 49





NFL Handicapping: Betting markets react to Brady suspension

05.12.2015     07:19 AM     Read more



Tags: NFL New England Patriots Pittsburgh Steelers




NFL Handicapping: Betting markets react to Brady suspension

05.12.2015     07:19 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
No shock to see some betting market chaos following the announcement of Tom Brady's four-game suspension. Not only did it impact the Week 1 and Game of the Year lines but futures odds as well. A few Las Vegas oddsmakers chime in with what they feel Brady is worth to the pointspread. Cantor (CG Gaming) is one of the few sportsbooks currently offering a line of New England's Week 1 game vs. Pittsburgh. They reopened the game Patriots -1 and it was bet up to -1.5. The game originally opened -6.5.


The adjustments “are not enough,” The Wynn’s John Avello told The Linemakers on Sporting News. “I could see it as a pick or even the Steelers as the favorites.”






Tags: NFL New England Patriots




NFL Gambling Update: Steelers-Patriots a pick 'em if Brady suspended

05.11.2015     07:50 AM     Printer Friendly
UPDATE


According to various media reports it's likely that Tom Brady will be suspended for his "role" in Deflategate. Every sportsbook offering a Week 1 line took New England's game against Pittsburgh off the board. The Patriots were around -6.5 but if Brady is suspended, Westgate SuperBook oddsmaker Jay Kornegay said the game would likely reopen around a pick 'em.




NFL Gambling News: Bettors, sportsbooks react to Wells Report findings

05.07.2015     08:22 AM     View Original Blog


With the Read more



Tags: NFL New England Patriots Pittsburgh Steelers




NFL Gambling News: Bettors, sportsbooks react to Wells Report findings

05.07.2015     08:22 AM     Printer Friendly
With the Deflategate files now public there are rumblings that Tom Brady should/will be suspended in some capacity. It didn't take long for bettors to jump in on the New England's Week 1 opponent, Pittsburgh. It also didn't take long for sportsbooks to take the game off the board. Check out 5Dimes' line history...

copy_pats_steelers_2015.JPG




Tags: NFL New England Patriots Pittsburgh Steelers



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