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November

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NFL Handicapping: NFC and AFC Championship Betting Notes

01.17.2014     07:35 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Back as promised to run the regular season drive point averages in matchup order. Will provide a few additional notes as well. The numbers you see below are from the regular season. I’ll make separate comments about what’s happened so far within the small sample size of the playoffs.

Drive points are those scored and allowed on drives of 60 yards or more, trying to get the best possible read on “true” offense and defense not polluted by cheap scoring. The first set of parenthesis shows strength of schedule rankings according to Jeff Sagarin of USA Today, and then Football Outsiders (in that order). The second set of parenthesis shows turnover differential from the regular season.

AFC Championship
New England: 15.4 on offense, 12.2 on defense (21-18 schedule) (+9 turnovers)
Denver: 21.9 on offense, 14.4 on defense (24-31 schedule) (even turnovers)

A little football feng shui there in the schedule rankings. Sagarin has them Read more


Tags: NFL New England Patriots Denver Broncos Seattle Seahawks San Francisco 49ers Stat Intelligence




NFL Handicapping: Look-ahead pointspreads for Super Bowl XLVIII

01.14.2014     11:33 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Here are the look-ahead lines for the four potential Super Bowl XLVIII matchups courtesy of William Hill sportsbooks.

San Francisco vs. Denver pk O/U 47.5
San Francisco -2 vs. New England O/U 47
Seattle vs. Denver -1 O/U 47.5
Seattle -1.5 vs. New England O/U 47



Tags: NFL San Francisco 49ers Seattle Seahawks Denver Broncos New England Patriots Super Bowl XLVIII




NFL Gambling: Conference Championship early line moves and historical results

01.13.2014     08:06 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
A quick look at the early line moves for this weekend's NFL Conference Championships. Denver opened -7 offshore and -6.5 at LVH but has since been bet down to -4.5/-5. Seen a small move towards the over. The two teams met in Week 12 with the Patriots (pk) winning 34-31 in overtime in Foxboro. The Broncos blew a 24-0 lead. Seattle opened -3.5 both offshore and in Las Vegas. A few shows moved off of the -3.5 to -3 with juice. The total has been bet down heavily from 41.5/41 to 39.5/40. The two squads split the regular season meetings: San Francisco (-2.5) won 19-17 but failed to cover at home in Week 14; Seattle (-3) won and covered 29-3 in Week 2.

In terms of historical results (see below), sides are split 7-7 ATS (favorite/underdog) while totals have trended over at 9-5 O/U. Road teams have covered four straight.

New England at Denver
CRIS Opener: Denver -7 O/U 54.5
CRIS Current: Denver -5 O/U 55
LVH Opener: Denver -6.5 O/U 55
LVH Current: Denver -5 O/U 55

San Francisco at Seattle
CRIS Opener: Seattle -3 O/U 41
CRIS Current: Seattle -3 (-130) O/U 39.5
LVH Opener: Seattle -3.5 O/U Read more


Tags: NFL New England Patriots Denver Broncos San Francisco 49ers Seattle Seahawks




NFL Divisional Round Betting Recap

01.13.2014     07:34 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Excellent betting recap of the NFL Divisional Round for our friend Stat Intelligence. Check out the links below...

Seattle 23, New Orleans (+9) 15

New England (-7) 32, Indianapolis 22

San Francisco (-1) 23, Carolina 10

Denver 24, San Diego (+7.5) 17



Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence San Francisco 49ers Seattle Seahawks Indianapolis Colts New England Patriots Carolina Panthers New Orleans Saints Denver Broncos San Diego Chargers




NFL Gambling: Betting markets spent nearly entire season fading the Indianapolis Colts

01.10.2014     07:07 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
If you follow the NFL betting markets, you're well aware of its distaste for the Indianapolis Colts. Bettors considered last year's 11-5 SU/ATS mark to be fraudulent and were hell-bent on cashing in on the correction. It looked like a lucrative move as the Colts failed to cover in Weeks 1 and 2. It didn’t last however as Indy outpaced the market once again with a current run of 11-4 ATS. Ironically, after Weeks 1 and 2, in which the Colts took money based on CRIS's opening and closing numbers, they went 14 straight weeks without doing so. In four different weeks, the opening and closing numbers were the same. Which leaves 10 games (seven straight) in which the market faded this squad. This week, we've yet to see much of an anti-Colts push as CRIS opened +7-110 and currently shows a slight lean juice-wise towards New England. However, based on the market's track record with Indy, it seems likely at some point that 7.5 will be the prevailing number.



Based on CRIS’s opening and closing lines


vs. Kansas City
Colts Open -2.5
Colts Close +2

vs. Jacksonville
Colts Open Read more


Tags: NFL Indianapolis Colts New England Patriots




NFL Playoff Gambling: Sportsbooks offer differing opinions on Indianapolis-New England

01.07.2014     12:12 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Interesting line move at Grande for Saturday's Indianapolis-New England game. Grande, which is commonly referred to as a "leading indication sportsbook" has moved its line six times – all towards the Indy side. Grande opened the Colts +7.5-10 and from there dropped to +7.5-15, +7.5-20, +7.5-25, +7ev, and to its current number of +7-25. That number is a far cry from Las Vegas shops like LVH and William Hill that offer 7.5-110. CRIS has also shown respect for the Colts; opening +7-110 and yet to move off the key number to +7.5.



Tags: NFL New England Patriots Indianapolis Colts




NFL Handicapping: Early line moves for Divisional Round

01.06.2014     07:42 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Next week's NFL Divisional Round playoff matchups are set and lines have been posted both offshore and in Las Vegas. So far we haven’t seen a significant amount of market activity. There was/is some differing opinion on the Colts-Patriots game with LVH opening NE -9 and most of Las Vegas currently -7.5. Offshore, most shops have NE -7 with juice. A few (CRIS, Heritage) are offering 7 -110 on both sides.

New Orleans at Seattle
Saturday, 1:35 pm PT - FOX
CRIS Opener: Seattle -8 O/U 48
CRIS Current: Seattle -8 O/U 48
LVH Opener: Seattle -7.5 O/U 48
LVH Current: Seattle -8 O/U 47.5



Indianapolis at New England
Saturday, 5:15 pm PT - CBS
CRIS Opener: New England -7 O/U 52.5
CRIS Current: New England -7 O/U 52.5
LVH Opener: New England Read more


Tags: NFL




NFL Handicapping: Week 17 Playoff Scenarios

12.27.2013     07:10 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
A semi-detailed look at Week 17's playoff scenarios. Heading into Sunday there are four playoff spots still yet to be determined.

NFC: Seattle, Carolina, and San Francisco are in. If the Seahawks beat St. Louis they have homefield advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. If the Seahawks lose and San Francisco beats Arizona, the 49ers would win the West (and earn the top seed if Carolina loses). If both teams lose and Carolina beats Atlanta, then the Panthers are the top seed.

As for the rest of the NFC, Dallas at Philadelphia and Green Bay at Chicago are win-and-in matchups. New Orleans earns a wild card berth if it beats Tampa Bay. The Saints can also win the NFC South if Carolina losses. Arizona needs to beat the 49ers to go along with a Saints loss.

AFC: Denver, New England, Cincinnati, Indianapolis, and Kansas City are in. The Broncos are the top seed if they beat Oakland. If they lose and the Patriots beat the Bills, the Pats are the no. 1 seed. If the Pats lose and Cincinnati wins, the Bengals would move into the no. 2 slot. The Colts can move to no. 2 with losses by New England and Cincinnati. KC is already locked Read more


Tags: NFL




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Playoff bound, but Super Bowl XLVIII bound?

12.23.2013     07:23 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Last year, heading into Week 17, Atlanta was the team to beat in the NFC, having already clinched homefield advantage with their 13-2 (at the time) record.  Washington was the hottest team in the conference and Green Bay was considered very live for the title, with Aaron Rodgers just one year removed from his Super Bowl ring.  In the AFC, the playoff were expected to be an eventual battle between the Patriots and Broncos, with the other four teams (Baltimore, Cincinnati, Houston and Indy) largely considered to be fodder for the elites; non-factors.

What happened? A San Francisco-Baltimore Super Bowl, won by the Ravens; their third straight postseason win as an underdog.  Let’s not forget that Baltimore entered the playoffs in the midst of a late season 1-4 SU and ATS skid; a team that NOBODY expected to make noise in January and February.

In 2011, in the NFC, Green Bay was the unbeatable juggernaut with a 15-1 record as the defending champs, and the Saints weren’t far behind, just one year removed from a Drew Brees Super Bowl ring.  Meanwhile, the Giants were on the outside of the playoff picture, needing to beat Dallas just to get Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Super Bowl XLVIII Las Vegas




NFL Handicapping: Brady wants offense to play at faster tempo

12.19.2013     07:58 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
New England at Baltimore -2.5 O/U 44.5

A couple of quotes from New England quarterback Tom Brady about potentially picking up the pace against the Baltimore Ravens.


“Maybe we should do it more often,” Brady said on Wednesday, after the team’s first practice of the week in advance of their final regular-season road game, Sunday at Baltimore. “I just think we’re trying to figure out what we think is best to do to help us win. It just hasn’t really required that. But we go fast plenty of times, in those two-minute situations where we’ve done a good job.”

“To run three plays and punt really quickly doesn’t do you any more good than running three plays and huddling and all that, and [then] punting. Ultimately we have to score enough points and that Read more



Tags: NFL New England Patriots Baltimore Ravens



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