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Teddy Covers' Wiseguy Report: Recapping NFL Week 4
10.01.2012 12:21 PM
Teddy Covers
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers
Six NFL teams that made the playoffs last year entered Week 4 with a losing record. One of those squads – Pittsburgh – had a bye week. I watched the other five teams closely. Here are my notes from their respective performances.
Denver
- Denver spent their previous two games basically defining the term “defensive breakdown”, blowing coverages galore against both the Falcons and Texans. But the stop unit was much better against a lesser foe this week, forcing five three-and-outs on the Raiders’ 10 drives and keeping Oakland out of the end zone on both of their red zone chances.
There was legitimate week-to-week improvement in several areas. First, as a defense, the Broncos weren’t missing many tackles. Secondly, they had a pass rush, getting consistent pressure on Carson Palmer. And perhaps most importantly, the Denver secondary didn’t blow many coverages and assignments, although they still gave up a pair of 30+ yard completions.
I don't understand why this team huddles at all; the offense seems to work
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Tags:
NFL
Denver Broncos
Green Bay Packers
New Orleans Saints
Detroit Lions
New England Patriots
Teddy Covers
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College Football Gambling Preview: South Carolina Gamecocks at Kentucky Wildcats
09.28.2012 12:01 PM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
South Carolina
at
Kentucky
Andrew Lange's Recommendation:
Kentucky
Saturday, 4 pm PT - ESPN2
CRIS Opener:
South Carolina -20 O/U 47
CRIS Current:
South Carolina -20.5 O/U 49.5
Rob Veno Power Rating:
South Carolina -18
It is hard not to like what South Carolina has done thus far. They opened the season with a tough road win at Vanderbilt and then outscored their last three opponents 128-26. As a result, their stock in the betting markets has skyrocketed. Go back to last year and the Gamecocks were laying this identical price against Kentucky with the game obviously taking place in Columbia. SC ended up crushing 54-3 but Kentucky was simply awful with six turnovers and only 96 yards (and Morgan Newton at QB). Kentucky may be weak, but that type out outcome is unlikely to occur again on Saturday.
While they were able to rack up three big wins at home, let’s not forget that the
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Tags:
College Football
South Carolina Gamecocks
Kentucky Wildcats
SEC
Andrew Lange
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College Football Gambling Preview: Michigan Wolverines at Notre Dame Fighting Irish
09.19.2012 01:11 PM
Rob Veno
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno
Michigan
at
Notre Dame
Rob Veno's Recommendation:
Over
Saturday, 4:30 pm PT - NBC
CRIS Opener:
Notre Dame -5 O/U 51
CRIS Current:
Notre Dame -5.5 O/U 51
Rob Veno's Power Rating:
Notre Dame -4.5
Through three games this season, Notre Dame has incrementally begun to reestablish themselves among public opinion as a legitimate top 25 team. Their upgraded defensive performance in every area has been pointed to by most as the number one difference between this Irish team and previous versions over the past five seasons. While it seems apparent that Notre Dame is vastly improved on defense, this Saturday’s game versus Michigan figures to let everyone know just how much better they are.
Analyzing Notre Dame’s first three opponents you can find reasons to not fully buy into major defensive improvement. Now that Navy’s option attack has been completely grounded by Penn State,
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Rob Veno
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NFL Gambling Preview: New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers
09.13.2012 11:20 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
New Orleans
at
Carolina
Teddy Covers' Recommendation:
Lean towards Over
Sunday, 10 am PT - FOX
CRIS Opener:
New Orleans -3 (+101) O/U 51
CRIS Current:
New Orleans -3 O/U 51
Rob Veno's Power Rating:
New Orleans -3.5
Not much went right for either of these two teams in their season opener. The Saints defense was picked apart by a rookie QB making his first NFL start; giving up 40 points and 464 yards (a whopping 6.5 yards per snap), unable to stop the run or the pass in Steve Spagnuolo’s first game as the coordinator. Meanwhile, Drew Brees completed less than half of his pass attempts while throwing a pair of interceptions, after throwing only four INTs in his final eight regular season games last year. The Saints gave up on the run rather quickly in a game they trailed from the get-go, with Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram combining for only 32 yards on ten rushing attempts.
Carolina, too, was gashed by
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New Orleans Saints
Carolina Panthers
Teddy Covers
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Teddy Covers' Wiseguy Report: Recapping NFL rookie quarterbacks in Week 1
09.10.2012 07:09 AM
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With an NFL record five rookie starting quarterbacks under center on opening day, I spent the first Sunday of the regular season watching these youngsters very carefully. I tried to evaluate each one within the context of his team – no quarterback can be successful without the complimentary pieces of the equation surrounding him, both on offense and on defense. Here are my thoughts:
Cleveland Browns
- Cleveland’s defense held Michael Vick to a QB rating of 25.4. They forced five turnovers, returning one for a score and setting up all three Browns’ offensive scores. Their defensive playmakers made huge plays, most notably CB Joe Haden and LB D’Qwell Jackson, and Michael Vick was positively pummeled by the Browns pass rush.
And yet the Browns still found a way to lose. With the game on the line late in the fourth quarter – boom, a dropped INT in the end zone that would have clinched the game. And there’s no sugarcoating this performance from Brandon Weeden, the worst looking of all the rookie quarterbacks in the preseason and in his first “real” start.
On Weeden's first drive, he missed a
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Teddy Covers
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NFL Free Gambling Pick: Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals
09.09.2012 06:57 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Seattle
-2.5 at
Arizona
O/U 41
Recommendation: Seattle
There’s only one question to be asked here – do you believe what you saw this preseason? Arizona spent the entire month of August getting annihilated at the line of scrimmage, then losing a pair of tackles to season ending injuries. Ken Whisenhunt’s team couldn’t run the football one iota, getting nothing from Beanie Wells yet again.
And to make matters worse, it didn’t matter who was behind center against any first string defense – both Kevin Kolb and John Skelton spent the entire preseason running for their lives. No receiver stepped up on the opposite side from Larry Fitzgerald. This offense couldn’t move the football for basically the entirety of the preseason. I don’t expect that to change dramatically in Week 1, facing a top notch Seahawks defense.
Seattle, on the other hand, comes out of the preseason with a boatload of
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Seattle Seahawks
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Teddy Covers
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NFL Handicapping: Preseason woes be damned, Jets plan on throwing the football
09.07.2012 07:41 AM
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Buffalo
at
New York Jets
-3 O/U 38.5
So what if the New York Jets' passing game finished the preseason 56-of-100 for 502 yards and a 1-4 TD-to-INT ratio. Offensive coordinator Tony Sparano says they won't shy away from the
forward pass
starting this week against Buffalo.
“We’re going to throw the ball,” Sparano said. “We’re going to throw the ball our share. It’s not going to be the Wing-T out there.”
“The one-dimensional thing, I don’t think it works as well as when you can do both,” Ryan said. “Certainly, that is what we want to do.”
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Buffalo Bills
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NFL Betting News and Notes - Preseason Recap
09.04.2012 03:09 PM
ICC
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Submitted by ICC
Welcome to the debut of my weekly column NFL Betting News & Notes. Each week I will be digging for and sharing misleading box score stats as well as pointing out things only realized by watching the games. With Week 1 set to kickoff starting Wednesday, let's look back at some noteworthy items from the preseason.
Last week...
Buffalo’s starting offense led by quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick struggled quite bit during the preseason. So does last week's 38-32 final score against Detroit indicate signs of progress? My answer is no. They were only in the game for one possession and most of the points came from the Bills’ backups including a 100-yard kickoff return by Marcus Easley. The Bills had 221 passing yards but Fitzpatrick accounted for only 39 of those yards. Like I said, that game was in my opinion not an indicator that everything is OK in Buffalo.
Money came pouring in on St. Louis prior to its final preseason game against the Ravens. The Rams opened as a pick ‘em and went to as high as -5.5 by kickoff. That sharp money proved to be the right side as the Rams ended their preseason with a 31-17 spread covering win. So does that
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Ian Cameron
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College Football Gambling: Initial reactions to Week 2 line moves
09.03.2012 07:08 AM
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A quick glance at College Football Week 2 line moves.
Penn State at Virginia
CRIS Opener: Virginia -7
CRIS Current: Virginia -10
Quick Take: Not a shock to see this move after Penn State’s lackluster showing vs. Ohio. Could be tricky however supporting a UVA squad that has just two wins of 11 or more vs. FBS competition (Eastern Michigan, Maryland) under Mike London (2010-present).
Idaho at Bowling Green
CRIS Opener: Bowling Green -12
CRIS Current: Bowling Green -14.5
Quick Take: Sometimes what looks like an overreaction is in reality a market correction. Perhaps that’s the case as Idaho – who is looking to drop down to FCS – lost at home to Eastern Washington, 20-3. BG meanwhile showed well in a 27-14 loss at Florida.
Toledo at Wyoming
CRIS Opener: Wyoming -1
CRIS Current: Wyoming -3 (-115)
Quick Take: Absolutely brutal spot for Toledo after losing in overtime at Arizona. Some may consider that result to be fraudulent as the Wildcats outgained the Rockets 624-358.
North Carolina at Wake
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Teddy Covers' Wiseguy Report: Recapping College Football Week 1
09.03.2012 06:33 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
As I Tweeted (
@teddy_covers
) this past Sunday, it’s all NFL from here on out for the rest of 2012 – the time for leisurely Sunday’s has come and gone. With my writing focus turning to the NFL as well, I thought this week’s column should be about something else. And with the opening weekend of college football in the books, I figured a random college football observations column made perfect sense at this juncture. So here goes!
There’s an old sports betting adage about not overreacting to the results of a single game. In the middle of the season, I agree 100% – after a team’s mo. is clearly defined. But in Week 1, I think it’s just as important not to underreact either!
When Houston loses at home 30-13 to Texas State as 34.5-point favorites, that’s a meaningful result. It’s meaningful when Oklahoma can’t move the football for extended stretches against UTEP, punting eight times on 13 drives. It’s meaningful when San Jose State outscores Stanford 17-6 after the first quarter and outgains the Cardinal for the full 60
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Teddy Covers
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