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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Analyzing the early season MLB betting markets

04.11.2016     10:17 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Matt Harvey lost again on Sunday, with the Mets priced as high as -280 here in Las Vegas.  Chris Archer leads the majors in strikeouts, while King Felix ranks second as I write this early Monday morning. Their two teams -- Tampa and Seattle -- teams are a combined 0-4 in the four starts from those two aces.   I closed out last week writing about how betting on aces – the guys that advanced metrics really, truly love – has evolved into a negative expectation wager over the last few years.  The quants have emerged as the dominating force in the MLB betting marketplace and there’s no way that I’ve uncovered to beat them at their own game.

So, I’ve been focusing on the opening week of the MLB season with an anti-quant mentality, looking to take advantage of what the betting markets are undervaluing, not overvaluing.  If the markets are too tilted towards starting pitching, that leaves three areas that aren’t appropriately priced, in my opinion – lineups, bullpens and streaks. 

There’s already early season action for streak bettors, with the Orioles winning while the Twins and Braves keep Read more



Tags: MLB Teddy Covers




Sportsmemo's MLB Betting Preview: Cleveland Indians

03.28.2016     05:36 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

copy_mlb_preview_2015].jpg

Cleveland Indians
2015 W-L:
  81-80
2015 O/U:  79-80-2
2015 Profits:  -13.2 units
2016 O/U Wins (Westgate):  85.5
2016 AL Central Odds (Westgate):  9/5
Projected Starting Rotation: Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer, Danny Salazar, Josh Tomlin
Key Departures:  Ryan Webb, Chris Johnson, Mike Aviles
Key Additions:  Mike Napoli, Rajai Davis

Handicapper's Take: "Armed with the best starting rotation in the AL Central, the Cleveland Indians are projected to be Kansas City's closest competition this season. In fact, a number of sportsbooks currently have the Tribe with a higher season over/under win total and shorter odds to win the division.

Shortstop Francisco Lindor, who is projected to be the cornerstone of the organization, produced All-Star level numbers (.313, 12 HRs, 51 RBI) in only 99 games last season. And Mike Napoli was brought in to add pop to a lineup that had Read more



Tags: MLB Cleveland Indians Andrew Lange




College Basketball Betting Free Pick: Texas Tech Red Raiders at West Virginia Mountaineers

03.02.2016     12:04 PM     Drew Martin     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Drew Martin

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Texas Tech +10 at West Virginia O/U 145
Recommendation: Texas Tech


The Red Raiders and the Mountaineers have surpassed preseason expectations with West Virginia (22-7, 11-5) picked to finish sixth and Texas Tech (18-10, 8-8) picked last in the Big XII. The Mountaineers are in second place in the season's final week while the Red Raiders are in seventh but in good position for an NCAA Tournament berth thanks to a strong RPI and strength of schedule. Tonight’s matchup is a rematch and the Mountaineers have taken five straight over the Red Raiders putting them at 8-1 in the all-time series with an 80-76 victory on Jan. 23. Texas Tech was up by four with under a minute left before allowing West Virginia's Tarik Phillip to score the game's final eight points. Jaysean Paige scored 22 and Phillip added 20 as West Virginia shot 51.0 percent. Tonight’s matchup features a hot Texas Tech team coming in 5-1 over its past six games which includes impressive wins over Oklahoma, Baylor, and Iowa State. Head coach Tubby Smith has his team alive for a NCAA tournament bid for the first time since 2007. While Morgantown is a tough venue, teams tend to be Read more



Tags: College Basketball Texas Tech Red Raiders West Virginia Mountaineers Drew Martin




MLB Handicapping: McCullers and Syndergaard at top of Verducci Effect list

02.15.2016     08:58 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Remember when the preseason list of "Verducci Effect" pitchers was 10+ deep? You could always find three or four obvious candidates for regression and/or injury. Nowadays, it's not as easy in part because most teams are simply more careful with the workload of their young arms. This year, there are only five who qualify: Lance McCullers (Houston), Noah Syndergaard (NY Mets), Luis Severino (NY Yankees), Carlos Martinez (St. Louis), Tyler Duffey (Minnesota). Houston tried to be conservative with McCullers going so far as to shut him down for an extended stretch as well as throwing him on extra rest. That said, he's at the top of the list in terms of increased workload. Syndergaard, who is only 22, finished just shy of 200 innings following the Mets' postseason run.




Tags: MLB Houston Astros New York Mets




NBA Handicapping: Regular Season Over/Under Wins Update

02.12.2016     07:35 AM     Printer Friendly
Let's take a quick look at the NBA's regular season over/under wins. We projected each team's outcome based on current winning percentage. It looks as if four or five teams except to be right on the number heading into the final week of the season. And kudos to the Portland Trail Blazers who at 27-27 have already matched their preseason number. Heading into the season, Portland was projected to have to league's biggest decline following 2014-15's 51 wins.

2015-16 NBA Season Over/Under Wins Mid-Season Update and Projections
Team
2015-16 O/U Wins
Current Wins
Projected
Atlanta Hawks
50
31
Under
Boston Celtics
44.5
32
Over
Brooklyn Nets
28
14
Under
Charlotte Hornets
32.5
27
Over
Chicago Bulls
50
27
Under
Cleveland Cavaliers
56.5
38
Over
Dallas Mavericks
37
29
Over
Denver Nuggets
27.5
22
Over
Detroit Pistons
36
27
Over
Golden State Warriors
59.5
48
Over
Houston Rockets
55
27
Under
Indiana Pacers
40
28
Over
LA Clippers
57
35
Under
LA Lakers
29
11
Under
Memphis Grizzlies
51
31
Under
Miami Heat
47
29
Under
Milwaukee Bucks
44.5
22
Under
Minnesota Timberwolves
27.5
17
Over
New Orleans Pelicans
48
20
Under
New York Knicks
29.5
23
Over
Oklahoma City Thunder
56.5
40
Over
Orlando Magic
34.5
23
Over
Philadelphia 76ers
20.5
8
Under
Phoenix Suns
36.5
14
Under
Portland Trail Blazers
27
27
Over
Sacramento Kings
35
22
Under
San Antonio Spurs
57
45
Over
Toronto Raptors
47
35
Over
Utah Jazz
42.5
26
Under
Washington Wizards
46
23
Under





Tags: NBA




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Sportsbooks get crushed in Week 15

12.21.2015     09:55 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Sportsbooks around Las Vegas reported shorter lines and reduced handle on Sunday.  Bettors around town were short on cash due to the holidays, but also due to the fact that the books beat the public over the first two weeks of December.  But that certainly wasn’t the case this week!

On Sunday, just about every major NFL decision went in favor of the bettors, not the house, and the books took an absolute beating.  Public favorites cashed in game after game.  The Patriots covered -14.5 against the Titans.  The Seahawks covered -14.5 against the Browns.  The Packers covered -4 against the Raiders.  Most Steelers bettors cashed when Pittsburgh rallied to win by a TD, even though the line closed at -7.5 in many locations.  The Chargers beat up on Miami.  And Arizona hammered Philly on Sunday Night.  The only major decision that went in favor of the house was when the Giants stormed back from a four TD deficit to cover the spread against Carolina.

These quotes from Matt Youmans' excellent article in the Las Vegas Review Journal tell the story from the bookmaker perspective.  William Hill sportsbook director Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Analyzing the NFL Playoff contenders

11.30.2015     11:00 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
There’s one thing that has become very clear to me as the NFL season enters the December stretch run following another week of wild finishes and head scratching upsets.  The 2015 season is an ode to mediocrity.  You’re not going to find many (any?) truly elite teams. 
With the Patriots ongoing injury woes, when it comes to the elites at this stage of the campaign, there are only three teams I’d even consider: the Panthers, Cardinals and Bengals.  And all three of those teams have enough question marks to put them a good notch or two below where my top power rated teams were last year or the year before at this stage of the campaign.

It’s a similar story at the bottom of the league.  I’ve got eight teams grouped at the bottom of my power ratings: the 49ers, Chargers, Ravens, Titans, Browns, Saints, Jaguars and Rams.  All eight of those teams, while unquestionably weak, are capable of pulling upsets over playoff contenders, because they’ve all done it at least once this year. 

San Fran has wins over the Vikings and Falcons (still a playoff team if the season ended today).  San Diego Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL teams starting to change their stripes

11.23.2015     11:41 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
It’s Week 12 already. Thanksgiving is upon us, with the holiday season right behind it.  All the NFL Bye weeks are in the rear view mirror now, with every team still having exactly six games remaining in the regular season.  We’re seeing numerous ‘morphs’ around the league; teams that have changed their stripes rather dramatically over the course of the last month. 

Some of those morphs are duly noted by the betting markets.  For example, the 3-7 Cowboys with a healthy Tony Romo are favored over the 10-0 Panthers on Thanksgiving Day, with the betting markets reacting to the Cowboys positive showing with Tony Romo back behind center this past Sunday.  The markets certainly aren’t sleeping on Dallas right now!

But what about the Lions, winners of two straight since their woeful 1-7 start?  Or the Falcons, now just 1-4 in their last five games; struggling on both sides of the football?  The Jets aren’t the same team now that they were a month ago, especially if the injuries to shutdown corner Darrelle Revis and Pro Bowl caliber center Nick Mangold don’t heal quickly.  Should we Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Las Vegas




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Updating NFL Regular Season O/U Wins

11.16.2015     08:05 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
I write a lot about NFL Win Totals and NFL Divisional Odds throughout the summer months; my preferred methodology for discussing the upcoming season.  As we approach Thanksgiving, with Week 10 in the books and the final bye weeks coming up this weekend, it’s a good opportunity to take a look at how those wagers are faring heading into the homestretch of the 2015 campaign.

The very first NFL season win bets cashed this past weekend.  Dallas fell to 2-7, ensuring that the Cowboys cannot go Over their 9.5 game win total.  Carolina improved to 9-0, cashing their Over 8.5 win total from last summer.  Seattle fell to 4-5.  Even if the Seahawks win all of their remaining games, they can do no better than push their 11 game win total. 

It’s a similar story with Baltimore, sitting at 2-7 now, with a win total of 9 from last summer.  A 7-0 Ravens run to end the season would only produce a push for Over bettors. And while I write this column before Monday Night Football kicks off, the Bengals are in prime position to cash their Over 8.5 win total, 8-0 now and sitting as double digit favorites against the Texans.

A Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




College Football Betting Preview: Oklahoma Sooners at Baylor Bears

11.13.2015     07:24 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Oklahoma at Baylor
Saturday, 5 pm PT - ABC
CRIS Opener:
Baylor -5 O/U 78
CRIS Current: Baylor -2.5 O/U 76
Recommendation: Baylor

Baylor has a clear path to the four team college football playoff this January.  If the Bears can win their last four games, they’re in, plain and simple.  Of course with Oklahoma at home, then road trips to face TCU and Oklahoma State over the next three games, Baylor’s three toughest tests of the season are coming in back-to-back-to-back weeks.

For a good portion of the season, I had Baylor ranked among the top two or three teams in all of college football in my power ratings.  And I’ve got the Bears homefield edge ranked as high as any in the land, as clearly evidenced by their remarkable 19-4 ATS mark in Waco dating back to the start of the 2012 campaign.  It’s surely worth noting that this is the shortest pointspread that Baylor has had at home since 2012 – they haven’t been less than -7 at home against anybody over the last three seasons.

But two things have happened to make me lower my Baylor Read more



Tags: College Football Oklahoma Sooners Baylor Bears Big XII Teddy Covers



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Ian Cameron, Drew Martin, and Alex B. Smith. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Podcast Monday-Friday at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Podcast?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's podcast archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, CFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Jul 01, 2016 12:58 AM.