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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Week 3 Betting Recap

09.22.2014     07:51 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
We’re three weeks into the new NFL season and I’ve already got some pointspread and totals streakers to write about.  Three teams are 3-0 ATS, four more have yet to cover a pointspread. Four teams are 3-0 to the Over; five more are 3-0 to the Under. Who are these teams and why are they trending early? Most importantly, can we expect them to continue to trend in the same direction moving forward? Read on to find out.

I’ll focus here on the pointspread streakers, saving the totals streakers for a thorough look next week. That being said, I will list the early season totals streakers here, so you don’t have to go through the trouble of looking them up. 3-0 to the Over: Browns, Jaguars, Colts and Eagles. 3-0 to the Under: Bengals, Cardinals, Bills, Vikings and Titans.

The NFL is a parity filled league, and pointspreads can adjust rather dramatically based on a single early season performance. A big Week 1 or Week 2 victory, therefore, makes it more difficult to cover the spread the following week. Only three teams have managed to avoid an ATS defeat through the first three weeks of the season. All three of those squads were less than Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




College Football Betting: Have bettors overreacted on California and West Virginia?

09.17.2014     07:26 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Every college football season there are a handful of teams that take massive jumps in the eyes of bettors after tepid preseason expectations and solid play the first few weeks of the regular season. Two teams that comes to mind are West Virginia and California. The Mountaineers were lined in the neighborhood of 4.5 over/under wins and looked to be headed in the wrong direction under Dana Holgorsen. They instead opened the season with a competitive showing and pointspread cover against Alabama (33-23). Against Towson, WVU was laying -24.5 and rolled to a 54-0 win. And then last week, catching +3.5/+3 on the road, beat Maryland 40-37. This week, West Virginia plays host to Oklahoma. The Golden Nugget originally lined the Sooners as 17-point chalk. On Sunday, CRIS opened the game -12.5 and it has since been bet down to as low as -7. Rob Veno's Power Rating makes and adjustment towards WVU but not nearly as much with Oklahoma -14.5.

Similar situation with Cal who opened the year with an outright win at Northwestern. They followed it up with a 55-14 win over Sacramento State as 27-point chalk. There was no Golden Nugget GOY line on this week's matchup at Arizona but based on Read more


Tags: College Football West Virginia Mountaineers Big XII California Golden Bears PAC-12




NFL Gambling: Buffalo Bills yet to play truly up-tempo

09.16.2014     07:50 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
A lot of the talk during the preseason centered on how fast the Buffalo Bills wanted to play offensively. Last season, before quarterback EJ Manuel got hurt, the Bills averaged 77 plays per game. Since then, while not slow, they haven’t lived up the the up-tempo "hype." Through their first two games of the regular season, both wins, the Bills have run a total of 116 plays. Some of that number was a result of playing with a big lead in last week's win over the Dolphins. Note than including the preseason, Buffalo has gone under the total in six of seven games. The lone game to go over, in Week 2 of the preseason, cashed by a single point. For Week 3, Buffalo plays host to San Diego. The Bills opened as a pick 'em but have since been bet up to -2.5. The opening total of 44.5 was bet down to 44.






Tags: NFL Buffalo Bills San Diego Chargers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFL Week 2 Betting Recap

09.15.2014     07:18 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
My September NFL betting mantra is relatively simple.  It can be stated in one sentence: “Bet on good teams, and bet against bad teams.”   This strategy tends to be at its best  very early in the season, before the betting markets catch up to how good or how bad teams actually are compared to last year. 

That strategy did not fare well this past weekend for two reasons – many of the good teams played poorly and a good handful of the bad teams stepped up.  Of the seven top teams in my power ratings, only two managed to cover the pointspread on Sunday (Cincinnati and New England).  Seattle, New Orleans and San Francisco all lost SU as favorites.  Denver won, by not my enough of a margin to cover the number.  And Green Bay pushed against the closing number but lost for anyone who bet the Packers throughout the course of the week.

On the other end of the spectrum, many of the bottom teams in my power ratings stepped up and played a good game.  The worst two teams in the league – Jacksonville and Oakland, according to my numbers – are both 0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS.  Other weak teams like the Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




NFL Gambling Preview: Dallas Cowboys at Tennessee Titans

09.11.2014     01:58 PM     Alatex Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Alatex Sports

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Dallas at Tennessee
Sunday, 10 am PT - FOX
CRIS Opener:
Tennessee -3 O/U 47.5
CRIS Current: Tennessee -3 O/U 49.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Tennessee -1.5
Brent Crow's Recommendation: Tennessee

Much has been made of the Dallas Cowboys’ struggling defense and with good reason. They were terrible last year and lost several key players including MLB Sean Lee and DE Demarcus Ware in the offseason as well as CB Orlando Scandrick for the first four games due to a suspension. Last week they took another hit with weakside linebacker Justin Durant going down against San Francisco. He will be replaced by rookie Anthony Hitchens in the lineup this week against the Titans. Durant’s play-calling duties will now be handled by strongside linebacker Bruce Carter.

While the defensive issues are very much a factor for the Cowboys, the offense has come concerns as well. The expectation was that Dallas would be very Read more


Tags: NFL Dallas Cowboys Tennessee Titans Brent Crow




College Football Betting Preview: Tennessee Volunteers at Oklahoma Sooners

09.10.2014     08:39 AM     Otto Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Otto Sports

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Tennessee at Oklahoma
Saturday, 5 pm PT - ABC
CRIS Opener:
Oklahoma -20 O/U 54.5
CRIS Current: Oklahoma -20.5 O/U 54.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Oklahoma -17
OTTO Sports' Recommendation: Oklahoma

Not going to be many good opportunities to bet Oklahoma this season with heavy preseason expectations and two blowout wins in Weeks 1 and 2. The Sooners seems to be at their best from a betting perspective after a few losses and disinterest from the betting markets. However, in this weekend's matchup against Tennessee, the Sooners have a lot of sizeable advantages.

In terms of play in the trenches, this is a total mismatch. Tennessee entered the season with one of the youngest offensive lines in the country. It showed against Utah State and Arkansas State has the Vols had difficulty running the football. Against the Aggies, UT managed only 110 yards on 2.82 ypc. Against the Red Wolves, it was Read more


Tags: College Football Tennessee Volunteers SEC Oklahoma Sooners Big XII OTTO Sports




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Under- and over-reacting to early season football results

09.08.2014     07:50 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
I probably heard the same expression 20 times last week: ‘Don’t overreact to Week 1 results.’   It’s one of those handicapping mantras that we hear every year right around this time – the very beginning of football season. 

In basketball or baseball there’s no week off between the first two games and the early season betting markets don’t react intensely off a single poor performance.  But for football – both NFL and college – the prevailing conventional wisdom is that Week 1 results are a thing to take with a grain of salt.

The concept certainly makes sense.  Coaches – especially college football coaches – will tell you that they expect their biggest improvement between Week 1 and Week 2.  Without the benefit of preseason games or even scrimmages against opposing squads, teams often ‘work out the kinks’ and ‘get up to game speed’ in their initial contest.  The team you expected to see this year (at least for bettors who do some homework and have opinions coming into the campaign) might not be the team you saw in Week 1, but there’s Read more


Tags: NFL College Football Teddy Covers




College Football Betting Preview: Arkansas State Red Wolves at Tennessee Volunteers

09.05.2014     07:29 AM     Paul Stone     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Paul Stone

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Arkansas State at Tennessee
Saturday, 9 am PT - SEC
CRIS Opener:
Tennessee -17.5 O/U 51
CRIS Current: Tennessee -17 O/U 57.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Tennessee -17.5
Paul Stone's Recommendation: Tennessee

A Sun Belt versus SEC pairing at Neyland Stadium,one of college football's top venues, pits teams off lopsided season-opening wins. Butch Jones' Tennessee Volunteers mowed over Utah State, 38-7, Sunday, while first-year head coach Blake Anderson and the Arkansas State Red Wolves disposed of FCS opponent Montana State by a 37-10 margin one day earlier.

Attempting to reconstruct a program short on SEC caliber talent following Derek Dooley's brief tenure, Jones, in his second season, has displayed the ability to recruit at a high level and just might bring the Volunteers back near the glory days of the past if given enough time. In its opener against Utah State, Tennessee played a Read more


Tags: College Football Arkansas State Red Wolves Sun Belt Tennessee Volunteers SEC Paul Stone




NFL Betting: Recapping recent Week 1 line moves

09.02.2014     07:55 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Quick look at the some of the recent line moves in the NFL betting markets...

New Orleans at Atlanta: The Falcons opened -1.5 during the summer but by mid-August the Saints were -1.5/-2 favorites. Last week, New Orleans was popped again and is now -3 (ev/-105) across the board.

Minnesota at St. Louis: The Rams were -6/-6.5 for much of the summer. Now that Sam Bradford is out, the market has settled in at -4/-3.5.

Cincinnati at Baltimore: The Ravens never really threatened to go to -3, but all of the +2.5's were taken out as they are now -1 vs. the Bengals.

Buffalo at Chicago: Bears have bounced back and forth -6.5/-7. There is some opinion on this one with Chicago -7 (-110) at CRIS and -6.5 (-110) at Greek and Cantor.

Tennessee at Kansas City: A slow trickle of Titans' money pushed them from +6 to +3.5. Wouldn't be surprised to see the Chiefs -3 (w/ juice) come game day.

San Francisco at Dallas: Another one with varying opinion. San Fran opened -3.5 and was bet up to -6. But recent Cowboys' support has the 49ers settled in at Read more


Tags: NFL




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFC East Reg Flags

09.02.2014     07:06 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Bettors react strongly to the NFL Preseason.  First string offenses that look good in August tend to attract betting market support.  The markets are much less reactive to defensive success or failure compared to offensive production.  And bettors tend to largely ignore coaching gameplans; unable to differentiate between coaches who were aggressively trying to set a tone for winning or whether their primary focus was on roster evaluation and personnel decisions.

The two primary areas where preseason results affect the betting markets are adjusting Week 1 numbers and moving the juice on season over/under win totals.  Some of these line moves are absolutely warranted; others are based on erroneous reactions to essentially meaningless football games.

I’m not willing to write off a team’s regular season chances based solely on preseason struggles.  But ignoring those struggles completely is the moral equivalent of sticking your head in the sand. A repeated inability to execute the game plan in August often carries over into September.

One NFL Division had more than their fair share of struggles in August, on at least one Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, Ian Cameron, and Paul Stone. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Mar 02, 2015 11:18 PM.