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MLB Gambling News: A Unique Look at Offenses
05.20.2013 10:02 AM
Printer Friendly
Submitted by
Stat Intelligence
As you probably know, I’ve been playing around with 5-inning options in Major League Baseball this year. Part of the fun of that is doing record-keeping that you know nobody else is doing. Helps you see things from different perspectives.
I’ve been logging all the results by hand because there aren’t any websites I know of that go in-depth with this stuff. That’s GREAT, because it’s easier to gain and maintain an edge over the market when information isn’t widely available. Don’t think I’ll be giving away anything to vital in this post…though creative readers may find a way to use the data.
Here’s the percentage of time that each offense has reached at least two runs in the first five innings this year, through the games of Sunday afternoon…
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Detroit 76%
Baltimore 73%
LA Angels 68%
Boston 68%
Tampa Bay 67%
Cleveland
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MLB Handicapper Free Play: Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies
05.20.2013 09:44 AM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
Arizona
(Corbin) -110 at
Colorado
(Garland) O/U 9.5
Recommendation: Arizona
Arizona's Patrick Corbin has been flawless this season with a 1.52 ERA and solid 41-to-17 K-to-BB ratio. He’s a young lefty arm who has seen an uptick in velocity and plays on a quality team that is not overpriced in the betting markets. It would be foolish to think Corbin isn't going to regress some (see 3.91 xFIP) but despite his success the betting markets continue to bet against this kid and as a result his value has remained. He should be north of -125 in this particular matchup yet you can get him for as cheap as -110. Colorado's Jon Garland has thrown three straight games in which he's lasted only five innings and allowed three earned runs. With 26 strikeouts in 46 innings Garland simply isn't able to fool many batters at this point in his career. There are some metrics that suggest the starting pitching matchup is close but the eye test tells me to support the premium lefty arm at a discounted price.
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Arizona Diamonbacks
Colorado Rockies
Andrew Lange
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MLB Gambling Free Pick: Cincinnati Reds at Miami Marlins
05.16.2013 10:03 AM
Rob Veno
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno
Cincinnati
(Latos) -155 at
Miami
(Fernandez) O/U 7
Recommendation: Under
Sometimes you have to roll with plays that look simplistic and this game shapes up as one of those. Starting pitching figures to dominate here as the Mat Latos takes on young gem Jose Fernandez. Despite the fact that Latos’ history against Miami shows an 0-3 record, he had tremendous success earlier this season when he threw seven strong innings and allowed only one earned run and posting a 10:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. That game was in the hitter friendly Great American Ballpark so look for Latos to be just as effective tonight inside spacious Marlins Park. Miami’s offense continued its abysmal season last night getting shutout by the Reds 4-0 and they now own an MLB-worst 110 runs scored, .224 batting average, .322 slugging percentage, .224 OBP, and .608 OPS. While Fernandez certainly faces the superior lineup, he’s been brilliant over his last couple starts. He’s pitched a combined 13
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Cincinnati Reds
Miami Marlins
Rob Veno
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Sports Betting Podcast 5-16-2013 with Handicappers Ian Cameron and Rob Veno
05.16.2013 09:59 AM
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Thursday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicappers Ian Cameron and Rob Veno. Ian broke down the entire NHL Playoffs card while Rob talked MLB.
Today's segments
Full Show
Ian Cameron - NHL Playoffs
Rob Veno - MLB Every Game on the Board
To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our
Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage
.
ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.
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MLB
Ian Cameron
Rob Veno
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MLB Handicapper Free Play: Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres
05.16.2013 09:49 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Washington
(Strasburg) -140 at
San Diego
(Volquez) O/U 7
Recommendation: Under
The Nationals lineup has gone ice cold. They’ve plated just ten runs in their last five games, and nearly half of those runs came in three innings against Josh Beckett, who went on the DL following that outing. The Nats have 46 strikeouts during that span, while hitting .133 with runners in scoring position. Padres starter Edison Volquez threw seven innings of three hit, one run ball in his lone start against Washington last year. And Volquez has been dominant in each of his last two home starts here at Petco: 13.2 innings of work, nine hits and one run against two pretty good hitting lineups – Milwaukee and Arizona. It’s surely worth noting that the Nats have been held to three runs or less in six of their last seven games in the most pitcher-friendly ballpark in the majors.
Stephen Strasburg hasn’t won since opening day, and he’s
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Washington Nationals
San Diego Padres
Teddy Covers
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MLB Gambling Notes: Boston's Doubront back after making adjustments
05.16.2013 06:48 AM
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Boston
(Doubront) at
Tampa Bay
(Cobb) -137 O/U 8
After skipping a start and making some
mechanical adjustments
, Boston's Felix Doubront is back on this hill this evening in Tampa. Doubront was fairly effective his first four starts (23.1 IP, 20 hits, 29 Ks, 13 BBs) but fell apart his last two (9 IP, 23 hits, .489 BAA). His velocity in those starts was significantly down which suggests the problems could be arm related. We recommend taking a wait-and-see approach.
"Figure out little things in my mechanics that help me to stay in line, to stay repeating my delivery and throw more strikes down in the zone," Doubront said. "That kind of helps. ... Just feel confident on the mound. Like I said repeat and repeat. That's going to help when everything is going to come back and feel more confident than before."
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Boston Red Sox
Tampa Bay Rays
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MLB Handicapping: Greinke returns after broken collarbone
05.15.2013 10:53 AM
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Washington
(Detwiler) at
LA Dodgers
(Greinke) -140 O/U 6.5
Just over a month removed from breaking his left collarbone, Zach Greinke is back on the hill. Originally slated to miss eight weeks, Greinke is reportedly
good to go
after throwing 80 pitches in a recent rehab start.
"He feels like he's ready," manager Don Mattingly said (MLB.com). "His stuff kind of tells us he's ready. He wants to pitch."
"I'm sure there's a lot of risk every day," he said (MLB.com). "If it makes sense, you do it. If I didn't feel ready, I wouldn't do it. If it was 50/50, you don't do it. I say it's well worth the risk we're taking. If everyone in baseball had the same feeling I have, everyone would be playing. It's nothing superhero-ish. If you felt what I feel, you'd do the same thing."
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MLB Gambling Free Pick: New York Mets at St. Louis Cardinals
05.15.2013 10:47 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
NY Mets
(Marcum) at
St. Louis
(Miller) -210 O/U 8
Recommendation: Over
"It's definitely the best game I've thrown in my life.” That was Cardinals rookie Shelby Miller’s quote following his truly dominant 13 strikeout, one hit complete game shutout over the Rockies in his last outing. But Miller matched his career high in pitches thrown in that contest; and it’s only the second time all season he’s averaged less than 16 pitches per inning. Coming off the "best game of his life", I’m expecting significant ‘regression to the mean’ from Miller this evening.
Mets starter Shaun Marcum is an even stronger bet against candidate this evening. Since starting the season on the DL, Marcum has failed to make it out of the fifth inning in any of his starts, with an 8.59 ERA and a whopping .400 batting average against. Mets manager Terry Collins: “I think Shaun tried to hurry through the rehab and get up
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St. Louis Cardinals
Teddy Covers
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Sports Betting Podcast 5-15-2013 with Handicappers Ian Cameron, Erin Rynning, and Alf Musketa
05.15.2013 10:13 AM
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Wednesday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicappers Ian, Erin Rynning, and Alf Musketa. Ian and Erin broke down the entire MLB card while Alf talked tonight's two NBA Playoff matchups as well PGA and UFC.
Today's segments
Full Show
Ian Cameron - National League
Erin Rynning - American League (Free Play)
Alf Musketa - NBA Playoffs, PGA, and UFC
To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our
Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage
.
ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory
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Ian Cameron
Erin Rynning
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MLB Betting Notes: Seattle's Iwakuma off to a strong start
05.15.2013 07:25 AM
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Seattle
(Iwakuma) at
NY Yankees
(Hughes) -120 O/U 7.5
Good
article
on the emergence of Seattle's Hisashi Iwakuma. In eight starts, Iwakuma sports a 1.74 ERA with 51 strikeouts and only eight walks. We'd expect him to regress some moving forward (51.2 IP, 30 hits, .198 BABIP) but his success isn't a total fluke considering his vast array of pitches and control.
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Seattle Mariners
New York Yankees
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