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Sportsmemo's MLB Betting Preview: Miami Marlins

03.10.2015     08:45 AM     Printer Friendly
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The Washington Nationals are heavy favorites to with the NL East but the Miami Marlins are looking to win now and have the talent to contend for a Wild Card berth.

Miami Marlins
2014 W-L:
77-85
2014 O/U: 83-68-11
2014 Profits: -2.0
2015 O/U Wins: 81.5
2015 NL East Odds: +600
Projected Starting Rotation: Mat Latos, Henderson Alvarez, Jarred Cosart, Dan Haren, Tom Koehler
Key Departures: Casey McGehee, Nathan Eovaldi
Key Additions: Mat Latos, Martin Prado, Dee Gordon, Jarred Cosart

Handicapper’s Take: “Differing opinions on this squad amongst those who cover MLB as Miami appear to be in “all in” mode this season. The huge contract that locked up the game’s top power hitter Giancarlo Stanton along with the offseason moves which brought in 2B Dee Gordon, 1B Mike Morse, 3B Martin Prado, and RH starter Mat Latos, have raised the expectations for this club. There is now a legitimate blend of speed, power and Read more


Tags: MLB Miami Marlins Rob Veno




Sportsmemo's MLB Betting Preview: Oakland A's

03.10.2015     08:31 AM     Printer Friendly
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It wouldn't be an Oakland A's offseason with a ton of personnel changes. But unlike last season, expectations are modest with this squad projected to be a .500 squad.

Oakland A's
2014 W-L:
88-74
2014 O/U: 77-76-9
2014 Profits: -16.1
2015 O/U Wins: 81.5
2015 AL West Odds: +400
Projected Starting Rotation: Sonny Gray, Scott Kazmir, Jesse Hahn, Drew Pomeranz, Kendall Graveman (Jarrod Parker, AJ Griffin injured but projected to return at some point)
Key Departures: Josh Donaldson, Jeff Samardzija
Key Additions: Tyler Clippard, Ben Zobrist, Billy Butler, Brett Lawrie

Handicapper's Take: "2014 was a tale of two seasons would be an understatement for what actually transpired, while their season also pointed to the randomness of baseball.  The 2014 betting numbers are bizarre for the A’s.  They were a team that was expected to win about 88 games at the high end based on their season over/under total.  Well, they Read more


Tags: MLB Oakland A's Erin Rynning




Sportsmemo's MLB Betting Preview: Boston Red Sox

03.09.2015     01:59 PM     Printer Friendly
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No shock to see the Boston Red Sox attempt to reload following last season's disaster. In the ultra-competitive AL East, a "worst to first" scenario, while plausible, is far from a lock despite some of the numbers being attached to this squad in the preseaon betting markets.

Boston Red Sox
2014 W-L:
71-91
2014 O/U: 71-86-5
2014 Profits: -26.5
2015 O/U Wins: 85.5
2015 AL East Odds: +195
Projected Starting Rotation: Clay Buchholz, Rick Porcello, Wade Miley, Joe Kelly, Justin Masterson
Key Departures: Yoenis Cespedes, David Ross
Key Additions: Pablo Sandoval, Hanley Ramirez, Rick Porcello

Handicapper's Take: "The Boston Red Sox, which finished a division worst 71-91 in 2014 (25 games back of the Baltimore Orioles) are the odds on favorite to win the division!  One may look at this team on paper and immediately give them the title of “team to beat”, but I’m not so quick to back a team with this many Read more


Tags: MLB Boston Red Sox Sammy P




Sportsmemo's MLB Betting Preview: Atlanta Braves

03.09.2015     01:44 PM     Printer Friendly
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It’s been a long time since the Atlanta Braves weren’t at least in the conversation of NL East contenders but various offseason moves suggest 2015 to be that of rebuilding.

Atlanta Braves
2014 W-L:
79-83
2014 O/U: 63-86-13
2014 Profits: -18.0
2015 O/U Wins: 73.5
2015 NL East Odds: +3300
Projected Starting Rotation: Julio Teheran, Mike Minor, Shelby Miller, Alex Wood, Michael Foltynewicz
Key Departures: Evan Gattis, Justin Upton, David Carpenter
Key Additions: Jason Grilli, Nick Markakis

Handicapper’s Take: “It is very strange to see the Braves head into the season as a team in transition but that’s exactly what they are in 2015. The offseason overhaul in the outfield was all inclusive as all three positions will have a new starter. Gone is last season’s power laden but strikeout heavy group of Justin Upton, B.J. Upton, Evan Gattis, and Jason Heyward and in are ex-Orioles RF Nick Read more


Tags: MLB Atlanta Braves Rob Veno




MLB Gambling: The Phillies' rotation is going to be really bad

03.09.2015     08:45 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
And there's a chance Hamels and Lee don't even pitch...

Aaron Harang - 36 years old. Reportedly dealing with back issues in spring training. Coming off his best season since 2009 in which he tossed 204.1 innings. Still shows fly ball tendencies (39.4% GB rate) and posted an unsustainable 6.4% HR/FB ratio.

Cole Hamels - Still be shopped around as we speak. Durable with five straight 200+ inning seasons. At 31 years old it's possible he can continue to be a top flight NL starter but unreasonable to think he won't regress some after posting a 2.46 ERA/3.07 FIP.

Cliff Lee - Damaged arm and considering surgery/retirement. At 36 years old there's little upside as we saw a drop of a full strikeout per 9 last season before being shelved.

Jerome Williams - Has reinvented himself as a sinkerball/inning eater. But at 33 years old, evening the National League, he grades out as a No. 4 starter at best.

David Buchanan - Young and showed flashes last year with a 50.7% GB rate and 3.75 ERA. Doesn't miss many bats (5.43 K per 9) nor offer much upside as the league Read more


Tags: MLB Philadelphia Phillies




MLB Handicapping: Strength of schedule

03.09.2015     07:05 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Informative article from FanGraph's Jeff Sullivan on MLB Strength of Schedule. There are a number of ways you could go about calculating SOS. In this instance, Sullivan uses projected WAR.

Hardest AL - Baltimore Orioles
Easiest AL - Seattle Mariners

Hardest NL - Philadelphia Phillies
Easiest NL - Washington Nationals



Tags: MLB




Sportsmemo's MLB Betting Preview: St. Louis Cardinals

03.09.2015     06:40 AM     Printer Friendly
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Nothing much new in St. Louis as this veteran ballclub is in position to make a run at a fifth straight postseason appearance. But their core group is aging and recent history and current profile suggest there won’t be much betting value.

St. Louis Cardinals
2014 W-L:
90-72
2014 O/U: 73-82-7
2014 Profits: +2.0
2015 O/U Wins: 87.5
2015 NL Central Odds: +120
Projected Starting Rotation: Adam Wainwright, Michael Wacha, Lance Lynn, John Lackey, Carlos Martinez
Key Departures: Pat Neshek, Justin Masterson, Shelby Miller
Key Additions: Jason Heyward, Jordan Walden

Handicapper's Take: "Virtually all of last season's 90-win squad is back and they added Jason Heyward who is still only 25 years old. The starting rotation is scary good if it can stay healthy; particularly Adam Wainwright (33 years old) who is almost assuredly due for a decline after tossing well over 500 IP the last two seasons. Expectations are once again there Read more


Tags: MLB St. Louis Cardinals Andrew Lange




Sportsmemo's MLB Betting Preview: Chicago Cubs

03.09.2015     06:26 AM     Printer Friendly
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Epstein, Maddon, Lester...it's an AL East reunion! But while the Chicago Cubs have big names as the faces of the organization it's the young talent and smart roster moves that has oddsmakers and bettors projecting better things on the North Side.

Chicago Cubs
2014 W-L:
73-89
2014 O/U: 82-73-7
2014 Profits: -4.5
2015 O/U Wins: 82.5
2015 NL Central Odds: +320
Projected Starting Rotation: Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, Jason Hammel, Kyle Hendricks, Travis Wood
Key Departures: Luis Valbuena
Key Additions: Manager Joe Maddon, Jon Lester, Dexter Fowler

Handicapper's Take: "Few teams have had endured as much failure from a betting perspective as the Chicago Cubs. Over the last 16 seasons they've averaged around -16 units a season. Since 2008, they’ve churned out exactly one profitable campaign. This year feels different as rather than going the quick-fix route, the organization took its time to rebuild the right way. The offseason Read more


Tags: MLB Chicago Cubs Andrew Lange




MLB Handicapping: Know your Verducci Effect candidates

02.19.2015     09:16 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
In cased you missed it, here's the article on this year's Verducci Effect candidates.


How did the Year After Effect play out last year? Entering the 2014 season, I red-flagged 10 young pitchers because of their innings increase in '13. Seven of the 10 regressed, throwing significantly fewer innings in the year after. Seven of those pitchers experienced health problems. Overall, the class of '14 threw an average of 39 1/3 fewer innings than they did in 2013.





Tags: MLB




MLB Handicapping: Westgate's Individual Prop Bets

02.18.2015     08:51 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
We got our paws on a number of MLB individual prop bets from the Westgate Superbook. Check ‘em out below...

Regular Season Home Run Title
Giancarlo Stanton 6/1
Jose Abreu 8/1
Edwin Encarnacion 12/1
Jose Bautista 12/1
Chris Davis 15/1
Miguel Cabrera 15/1
Mike Trout 15/1

Regular Season O/U Home Runs
Giancarlo Stanton 36.5
Jose Abreu 35.5
Edwin Encarnacion 34.5
Jose Bautista 32.5
Chris Davis 30.5
Miguel Cabrera 31.5
Mike Trout 32.5

Regular Season O/U Hits
Joe Altuve 181.5
Mike Trout 173.5
Robinson Cano 168.5
Andrew McCutchen 168.5
Adam Jones 168.5
Yasiel Puig 157.5

Regular Season O/U Wins
Clayton Kershaw 17.5
Felix Hernandez 14.5
Madison Bumgarner 14.5
Adam Wainwright 14.5
Chris Sale 14.5
Max Scherzer 14.5
David Price 14.5
Stephen Strasburg 14.5



Tags: MLB



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, Ian Cameron, and Paul Stone. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Mar 29, 2015 09:20 AM.