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MLB Handicapping: Do Some MLB Starting Pitchers Lack a Sense of Urgency?
06.13.2013 08:51 AM
Printer Friendly
Submitted by
Stat Intelligence
I started thinking more about that question yesterday after reading an article called “Lessons from the Linescore” by former pitcher Pat Jordan. Rob Neyer on twitter provided a
link
to the article. It’s a long read…so pick a time when you have several minutes to read through it. The quote that jumped out at me…from the perspective of trying to handicap 5-inning baseball props…was this reference to Justin Verlander:
“Two years ago, I interviewed Verlander for a story and he told me he always paced himself in the first few innings so he could summon his 98 miles per hour fastball in the seventh and eighth innings. We argued about that. I told him that sooner or later opposing batters would get wise and attack his 91-92-mph fastball in the first few innings to try to knock him out of the box early before he could call on the
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MLB
Stat Intelligence
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MLB Gambling News: Pittsburgh's Morton makes his seasonal debut
06.13.2013 08:25 AM
Printer Friendly
San Francisco
(Cain) -110 at
Pittsburgh
(Morton) O/U 7.5
Pittsburgh's Charlie Morton makes his return after missing most of 2012 with Tommy John surgery. Morton's velocity was reportedly good as well as his groundball rate. He did walk 10 batters in 19 innings at Triple-A. Everything you read on Morton talks about his
immense talent
. He's often reoffered to as Roy Halladay Jr. – we assume the younger, more dominant version of Doc. But there have seemingly always been issues with his mechanics and confidence. There aren't many pitchers that boast a sinkerball as filthy as Morton’s but off of hip and arm surgery, we suggest taking a wait-and-see approach. Note that Tim McClelland is behind the plate for tonight’s start against San Francisco. McClelland calls it fair but is noted for having a tight strike zone.
"I remember catching Charlie's games last year
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MLB
Pittsburgh Pirates
San Francisco Giants
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MLB Handicapping: Dickey's 2013 struggles continue
06.13.2013 08:02 AM
Printer Friendly
Pretty revealing interview on
FanGraphs
as RA Dickey spilled the beans on this year's struggles. Dickey is a tough dude and we commend him for wanting to take the ball every fifth day – nowhere is that more needed than Toronto given the revolving door of starters they've had this season. That being said, Dickey mentioned the litany of injuries he’s dealt with, the drop in velocity, as well as having to prepare for the World Baseball Classic. The interview was conducted prior to his June 5 start in San Francisco in which he threw 8.1 inning of shutout ball. His next start however was awful as he allowed 10 hits and seven earned runs against the White Sox. Even with Dickey being a knuckleballer he is getting up there in age and has little room for error tossing in the American League East. Until further notice, he remains on our "bet against" list.
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Toronto Blue Jays
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MLB Handicapper Free Play: New York Yankees at Oakland A's
06.12.2013 10:10 AM
Rob Veno
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Submitted by Rob Veno
NY Yankees
(Hughes) +112 at
Oakland
(Straily) O/U 7.5
Recommendation: New York
Everyone who’s involved in the daily MLB handicapping grind knows how wildly inconsistent Phil Hughes’ starts can be. His stuff has always been very good and in my opinion when he has a bad outing it’s because of poor location inside the strike zone. Tonight there are overwhelming situational numbers that suggest he’ll be successful so I’ll go to the well and back him for a second straight start. In his most recent performance, Hughes came through with seven innings of three hit ball and a win at Seattle. The road has been kind to the RH lately as his last three away appearances have resulted in quality starts. In those games, Hughes threw 19 innings allowing 12 hits and three earned runs for a 1.35 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, .169 BAA. He’s had tremendous success in this park as evidenced by his 1.69 ERA and 0.69 WHIP and in 84 plate appearances against him, this A’s roster
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New York Yankees
Oakland A's
Rob Veno
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MLB Handicapper Free Play: Milwaukee Brewers at Miami Marlins
06.11.2013 11:35 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Milwaukee
(Peralta) -110 at
Miami
(Turner) O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Milwaukee
This game comes down to one single question – how much do you value starting pitching? There’s no doubt that Miami has a real starting pitching edge in this game, sending impressive rookie phenom Jacob Turner to the mound to face off against the very hittable Wily Peralta for the Brewers. But that’s the only edge the Marlins have. In a pick ‘em priced game, I don’t think that’s enough. Here’s why:
Prior to the season, Miami was lined as a 63 or 64 win team, expected to approach the 100 loss mark. They’ve lived up to those expectations. At 18-45, the Marlins have the worst record in the major leagues. Only the Astros have a weaker home record than Miami’s 10-21 mark.
Milwaukee was lined as a .500 level ball club coming into the campaign (80 or 81 wins). Thanks to a disastrous month of May
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Miwaukee Brewers
Miami Marlins
Teddy Covers
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MLB Gambling Free Pick: Cleveland Indians at Texas Rangers
06.11.2013 10:37 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Cleveland
(Kluber) at
Texas
(Holland)
Recommendation: Under 5.5 1st 5
I've been high on Texas' Derek Holland all season and he hasn't disappointed. At a hit and strikeout per inning – and tossing in the American League – he's proven himself to be one of the top left-handed arms in the game. Tonight he faces a Cleveland offense that is as streaky as it comes. They're currently in an eight-game slump in which the offense has produced some truly dismal splits: .211/.267/.576. Cleveland's Corey Kluber has been a pleasant surprise. The big right-handed has good stuff (9.85 Ks per 9) but has been a bit unfortunate (.341 BABIP, 4.56 ERA/2.84 xFIP). Kluber just wrapped up a four-game swatch in which he faced New York, Tampa, Boston, and Detroit and posted a rock solid stellar 29/3 K/BB ratio while allowing only 18 hits. Cleveland's bullpen isn't very trustworthy but I like both starting pitchers which got me to the window with a play under the total, first 5 innings.
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MLB
Texas Rangers
Cleveland Indians
Andrew Lange
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Sports Betting Podcast 6-11-2013 with Handicappers Ian Cameron and Erin Rynning
06.11.2013 10:34 AM
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Tuesday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicappers Ian Cameron and Erin Rynning. Ian and Erin went through every game on the MLB card.
Today's segments
Full Show
Ian Cameron - American League
Erin Rynning - National League
To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our
Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage
.
ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.
Tags:
MLB
Ian Cameron
Erin Rynning
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MLB Handicapping: Pittsburgh Pirates call up stud righty Gerrit Cole
06.11.2013 07:33 AM
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San Francisco
(Lincecum) at
Pittsburgh
(Cole) -120 O/U 7.5
Good breakdown from
FanGraphs
on Pittsburgh's highly touted rookie Gerrit Cole. He was the No. 1 pick in the 2011 drafft. At Triple-A, Cole posted a 2.91 ERA with 44 hits allowed in 68 innings. His strikeout rate was down (6.22 K/9) was down from previous minor league stops but it was reportedly by design.
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Pittsburgh Pirates
San Francisco Giants
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MLB Handicapper Free Play: Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners
06.10.2013 10:31 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Houston
(Keuchel) at
Seattle
(Iwakuma) -235 O/U 6.5
Recommendation: Under
Hisashi Iwakuma has been as dominant as any pitcher in baseball here at Safeco Field in 2013. The numbers don’t lie. In his starts, he’s lasted 41.2 innings (almost seven full innings per outing) with allowing a grand total of 21 hits and five earned runs. His 38-2 strikeout to walk ratio is unheard of, as is his 1.08 ERA, 0.55 WHIP and .155 batting average against. But because his name is Hisashi Iwakuma (a relative unknown) and because he plays in Seattle (a completely anonymous franchise for the last decade); he’s still not being priced like a Justin Verlander or a Clayton Kershaw.
The Astros lineup has gone ice cold again; held to two runs or less in six of their last seven ballgames, including all three in their just concluded set at Kansas City. And the Mariners bullpen behind Iwakuma is in good shape following strong pitching performances from King
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Houston Astros
Seattle Mariners
Teddy Covers
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Sports Betting Podcast 6-10-2013 with Handicapper Rob Veno
06.10.2013 09:35 AM
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Monday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicapper Rob Veno. Rob went through every game on the MLB card.
Today's segments
Full Show
Rob Veno - MLB EGOTB (Free Play)
To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our
Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage
.
ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.
Tags:
MLB
Rob Veno
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