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NFL Handicapping: Estimated Market Power Ratings - Week 4

09.26.2013     06:47 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Updating our estimate of how “the market” currently has NFL teams rated on a Power Rating scale…

Estimated NFL Market Power Ratings

87: Seattle, Denver

85: Green Bay

84: New Orleans (at home)

83: San Francisco, New Orleans (road)

82: New England

81: Houston, Atlanta, Cincinnati, Dallas

80: Chicago, Miami, Baltimore, Indianapolis

79: Philadelphia, Kansas City, Detroit

78: Carolina, Washington

77: Tennessee, St. Louis, Arizona, NY Giants

76: San Diego, Pittsburgh, NY Jets, Tampa Bay (with Glennon)

75: Minnesota

74: Cleveland (with Hoyer)

73: Buffalo (seemingly docked because Spiller is hobbled)

72: Oakland (with Flynn)

69: Jacksonville

I think some of the goofy things we talked about a week ago have been rectified. Some of those were rectified over the weekend when sharps hit Baltimore hard late vs. Read more


Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




College Football Betting Preview: Wisconsin Badgers at Ohio State Buckeyes

09.25.2013     01:25 PM     Otto Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Otto Sports

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Wisconsin at Ohio State
Saturday, 5 pm PT - ABC
CRIS Opener:
Ohio State -7.5 O/U 53.5
CRIS Current: Ohio State -6.5 (-120) O/U 54.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Ohio State -6.5
Marty Otto's Recommendation: Over

It will be 8 pm local time in Columbus when the Buckeyes and Badgers play in front of 100,000 screaming fans at “The Shoe” in what shapes up as one of the biggest games of the weekend. ABC will have the coverage as these two Big Ten heavyweights look to take an early stronghold on the Leaders Division.

Wisconsin’s Gary Andersen is in his first year at the helm having come in from Utah State. His Aggies teams were stellar against the number when installed as road dogs going 14-2 ATS in that role during his tenure. He seems like a great fit here for the Badgers and his blue collar approach and willingness to lean on a three-headed monster of a running game should Read more


Tags: College Football Wisconsin Badgers Ohio State Buckeyes Big Ten Otto Sports




College Football Betting Preview: Oklahoma Sooners at Notre Dame Fighting Irish

09.25.2013     01:12 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Oklahoma at Notre Dame
Saturday, 12:30 pm PT - NBC
CRIS Opener:
Oklahoma -2.5 O/U 48.5
CRIS Current: Oklahoma -3 (-120) O/U 48.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Oklahoma -1.5
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Notre Dame

Last year, Notre Dame’s 30-13 upset win at Oklahoma as 13-point underdogs set the stage for its impressive run through November into the BCS Championship.  It was a tight game most of the way, with Notre Dame taking advantage of a pair of Sooner penalties that wiped potential touchdowns off the board. The Fighting Irish defense hung tough in the red zone, forcing field goals as opposed to allowing touchdowns.  And Oklahoma suffered a couple of bad snaps from center that killed key drives, not atypical of the miscues that plagued them in both regular season losses.

Now Oklahoma gets their chance for revenge in South Bend, and the betting markets clearly expect them Read more


Tags: College Football Oklahoma Sooners Big XII Notre Dame Fighting Irish Teddy Covers




Sports Betting Podcast 9-25-2013 with Handicappers Sammy P and Erin Rynning

09.25.2013     10:22 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Wednesday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicappers Sammy P and Erin Rynning. Sam preview the upcoming NHL campaign and gave out a special offer for his Full Season Package. ER recapped Week 4 College Football (Big Ten, PAC-12).

Today's segments
Full Show

Sammy P - NHL Preview (Special Offer)

Erin Rynning - CFB Week 4 Recap: Big Ten, PAC-12

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.



Tags: NHL College Football PAC-12 Big Ten Sammy P Erin Rynning




College Football Handicapping: Early line moves for Week 5

09.25.2013     07:36 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Let’s take a look at some of the early line moves for this week’s college football action.

UConn at Buffalo
CRIS Opener: UConn -2.5
CRIS Current: Buffalo -1
Comment: Buffalo comes in off of a bye week. UConn hung tough against Michigan but a lot of it had to do with the Wolverines committing four turnovers.

UAB at Vanderbilt
CRIS Opener: Vanderbilt -23
CRIS Current: Vanderbilt -19.5
Comment: Oddsmakers and bettors don't seem to be on the same page when it comes to the Commodores. Last week against UMass, Vandy opened -36, closed -29 and the Minutemen covered rather easily.

Iowa at Minnesota
CRIS Opener: Minnesota -3.5
CRIS Current: Iowa -1
Comment: Gophers off to a strong 4-0 start but have yet to be tested. If Minny goes off as the favorite it will mark the first time doing so vs. a Big Ten opponent since 2009.

Arizona at Washington
CRIS Opener: Washington -7
CRIS Current: Washington -10
Comment: Arizona comes in off a bye week but has played arguably the softest schedule in the country: Northern Arizona, Read more


Tags: College Football Andrew Lange




College Football Handicapping: Estimated Power Ratings as of 9/24/2013

09.24.2013     12:02 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I think most of you reading this know the drill by now. What you see below is my estimate of how “the market” has college football teams rated at this point in the season. And, by “the market,” I mean the combination of oddsmakers and sharps (leaving out the often-misguided public as best as possible). These are based on the current pointspreads at writing time, allotting 3 points for home field advantage.

This isn’t how I personally rate the teams. It’s my estimate of “market Power Ratings” if they existed in a tangible form.

An early number came up in Las Vegas last week for a hypothetical matchup between Alabama and Oregon. That line was Alabama -3, which represents how oddsmakers would rate the game. What would sharps do once big limits were available on a game like that? My scale estimates that sharps would take Oregon. They seem to be betting Oregon hand over fist this year…and Alabama is struggling to play Read more


Tags: College Football Stat Intelligence




NFL Betting Recap: Denver Broncos drill Oakland Raiders

09.24.2013     07:59 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Numbers and notes from Denver’s easy win over Oakland…

Denver 37 (-16), Oakland 21

Oakland: 342 yards, 6.7 per-play, 1 turnovers, 42% third downs

Denver : 536 yards, 7.3 per-play, 3 turnovers, 56% third downs

Other Numbers

Rushing Yards: Oakland 49, Denver 164

Passing Stats: Oakland 21-31-0-293, Denver 32-37-0-372

Drive Points: Oakland 14, Denver 21

Stat Score: Oakland 17, Denver 31

Sloppiness: Oakland 15, Denver 10

Pace Factor: 147 (offensive plays…plus penalties…plus punts…plus FG attempts)

You can tell that Peyton Manning was doing whatever he wanted to. What a passing line! His teammates kept fumbling the ball away. That plus some relaxation from the defense is how a 30-7 third quarter clubbing turned into a finish that put the game near the Vegas spread. Oakland’s offensive numbers were helped by that extended garbage time. Read more


Tags: NFL Oakland Raiders Denver Broncos Stat Intelligence




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: NFC News and Notes from Week 3

09.23.2013     07:43 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Welcome to Teddy’s unique look at the NFL. Teddy watches games all day on Sunday, typing furiously on his laptop while giving you the key info that the box scores and game recaps don’t necessarily have. This week, Teddy took a long, hard look at five NFC teams that have been major disappointments to start the year.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Doug Martin had 144 yards on the ground last week and the Bucs still only scored a single offensive touchdown and lost the game. Today, with Martin largely contained (longest carry 11 yards), the offense only managed a single field goal and lost the game. After leading the league in penalties through the first two games, the Bucs were only flagged four times here, but that’s about the only bright spot from this performance.

Injuries are becoming a huge story with this team. They came into this game missing three starters from opening day in their secondary, forced to start a safety who was on their practice squad last week. Their lone playmaker, WR Vincent Jackson left the game with bruised ribs. His counterpart on the other side, Mike Williams had a clear limp all afternoon. Pro bowl Read more


Tags: NFL Tampa Bay Buccaneers New York Giants San Francisco 49ers New York Giants St. Louis Rams Teddy Covers




NFL Handicapping: Pace Factor through Week 3

09.23.2013     07:36 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Following up on our discussion from earlier this week, here are the play totals (runs, passes, accepted penalties, punts, field goal attempts) from Sunday afternoon NFL games (plus KC/Philly from Thursday). I’ll rank them from fastest paced to slowest paced. First, the boundaries we’ve seen so far in the first two weeks...

Fastest: 187 (Baltimore at Denver, with two fast teams in season opener)

Midpoint: 158

Slowest: 134 (Oakland at Indianapolis)

This Week

192: Buffalo at NY Jets (new high, Bills floundered fast, Jets a million penalties)

178: Cleveland at Minnesota (fourth fastest in NFL this season)

171: Kansas City at Philadelphia

169: Detroit at Washington

159: Tampa Bay at New England

157: Houston at Baltimore

154: Jacksonville at Seattle

152: Green Bay at Cincinnati

149: San Diego at Tennessee

149: Arizona at New Orleans (Saints continue to Read more


Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




College Football Betting News and Notes - Week 4

09.23.2013     07:21 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
It is usually Boise State who sits back and capitalizes on other teams' mistakes not the other way around. Friday's game against Fresno was one of the more sloppy games I've ever seen out of the Broncos yet they somehow covered the number (+3.5) and had a chance to win the game outright. Down 17-10 early in the second quarter, Boise scored a touchdown but failed on a mysterious two-point conversion (note that the final score was 41-40). Miss one two-point conversion and you're likely to go for two again at some point. Midway through the fourth quarter the Broncos cut the lead to 34-32 and had yet another failed two-point conversion. On their next drive they finally cracked the code and put eight on the board but it put them up only six. Fresno would score a touchdown with three minutes left to give them the 41-40 lead for good. All told, Boise was 1-for-3 on two-point conversions, 1-for-4 on fourth down conversions, and committed two turnovers. Happy to kick PATs, Fresno had no turnovers, was 2-for-2 on fourth downs, and moved to 3-0 on the season.

It is hard for serious bettors to be active in laying huge points because there are typically more factors involved than Read more


Tags: College Football Andrew Lange



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, Ian Cameron, and Paul Stone. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Aug 29, 2014 11:03 AM.