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NCAA Tournament Gambling: Oregon reaches Sweet Sixteen despite turnover issues

03.27.2013     08:40 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Oregon vs. Louisville -10 O/U 129.5

It is hard to win in March when you can't take care of the basketball. That is what makes Oregon's two tournament wins all the more remarkable. The Ducks coughed it up 18 times in their first round win over Oklahoma State and matched that number against Saint Louis. Overall, the Ducks had 10 more turnovers than their opponents yet won by margins of 13 and 17. Oregon was able to offset its high rate of miscues by playing strong defense, particularly against the three-point shot. OSU and SLU shot a combined 8-of-38, 21% from deep. The Ducks were also a combined +12 on the glass. The question now becomes can Oregon beat (or hang) with Louisville with 18 turnovers? Probably not. The Cardinals are obviously a menace defensively but don't ignore how strong Read more


Tags: College Basketball Louisville Cardinals Oregon Ducks Andrew Lange




College Basketball Betting Free Pick: Santa Clara Broncos at Purdue Boilermakers

03.25.2013     07:15 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Santa Clara at Purdue -6.5 O/U 141.5
Recommendation: Purdue


With the exception on an early season win at Saint Louis, Santa Clara has had a real difficult time stepping up in class. Against the WCC's Big Three (Gonzaga, St. Mary's, and BYU), the Broncos went 0-6 SU and 0-6 ATS. Of those six games, only one was decided by double-digits; a seven-point home loss to Gonzaga. And don't be fooled by SC's opening round win and cover vs. Vermont. It was an absolutely horrific travel spot/situation for the Catamounts and yet they played dead even with Santa Clara for 39 minutes before fouls and free throws created a misleading margin of victory. Purdue is using the CBI as a means of extending the careers of its seniors while getting some of its young kids extended looks. They got past Western Illinois in the first round, 81-67. I'm not sure we get a "balls out" effort from the Boilermakers but I trust Matt Painter to have his kids at least somewhat prepared. Read more


Tags: College Basketball Santa Clara Broncos Purdue Boilermakers Andrew Lange




NCAA Tournament Betting Free Play: No. 13 La Salle Explorers vs. No. 12 Ole Miss Rebels

03.24.2013     07:27 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
La Salle at Mississippi
Recommendation: La Salle +2.5 1st half


Throughout Ole Miss's postseason run the common theme has been big second halves. In the SEC Tournament, they trailed against Missouri and Florida and were tied with Vanderbilt at half an obviously won all three games. In the first round against Wisconsin, the Rebels trailed by three and rolled to an 11-point win. I personally think this method of routinely coming off the pace is going to eventually backfire at some point (perhaps tonight) but it is impressive that in the second half of those four games Ole Miss outscored the opposition 153-103. La Salle is playing its third game in five days. We saw last time out against K-State that the Explorers were perhaps a little fatigued as they nearly blew an 18-point halftime lead. Ole Miss has been getting the job done with defense but the offense has really struggled (less than a point per possession in four straight games). Unlike Wisconsin, La Read more


Tags: College Basketball Ole Miss Rebels La Salle Explorers Andrew Lange




NCAA Tournament Betting Preview: No. 10 Cincinnati Bearcats vs. No. 7 Creighton Blue Jays

03.21.2013     07:32 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
NCAA Tournament - Midwest Region
Friday, 11:45 am PT, Philadelphia, PA
No. 10 Cincinnati vs. No. 7 Creighton
CRIS Opener: Creighton -3 O/U 126
CRIS Current: Creighton -3.5 O/U 128
Recommendation: Cincinnati


Cincinnati's blueprint is pretty straight forward – when the Bearcats shoot the ball well, they are tough to beat. When they don't, the outcome often isn't favorable. And there are plenty of numbers to support that statement. When the Bearcats scored 60 points or more in regulation they were 20-1 SU. When they didn't, 2-10. But it needs to be noted who they were facing. The Bearcats faced seven teams (9 games) that rank in the top 25 in defensive efficiency. In those games, Cinci scored 43, 51, 55, 68, 52, 55, 70, 54, and 58. We know that there is some offensive potential with this squad. Go back to an early season tournament in Las Vegas and we saw the Bearcats net 78 vs. Iowa State and 77 vs. Oregon – two teams somewhat Read more


Tags: College Basketball Cincinnati Bearcats Creighton Blue Jays Andrew Lange




College Basketball Betting Free Play: Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks at Stanford Cardinal

03.19.2013     07:23 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Stephen F. Austin +8.5 at Stanford O/U 126.5
Recommendation: Stephen F. Austin


I'm a little surprised Stanford decided to give head coach Johnny Dawkins another year but as a bettor I won't complain because under Dawkins this team has been a consistent underachiever. As for the NIT, I have my concerns about the Cardinal and their motivation considering they won the event last season. And they get a first round opponent that they simply can't just show up and beat. Stephen F. Austin is a quality mid-major with wins at Tulsa, Oklahoma and Long Beach State. The Lumberjacks also lost at Texas A&M by eight points. They play at a slow place and thrive on the defensive end of the floor (42.1% eFG, 29.0% 3-point, 88.2 ppp allowed). SFA's stout three-point defense is particularly noteworthy considering Stanford shot 41.1% in PAC-12 play which accounted for 32% of its points. Look for the underdog to stick around in this one.

Follow me on Twitter @LangeSportsmemo



Tags: College Basketball Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks Stanford Cardinal Andrew Lange




Atlantic-10 Tournament Betting Free Play: UMass Minutemen vs. VCU Rams

03.16.2013     09:53 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Massachusetts +8.5 vs. VCU O/U 151.5
Recommendation: UMass


I'm of the belief that teams facing VCU for a second time are going to perform better. The element of surprise with the "Havoc" isn't as strong and an entire game of film can be dissected. When UMass traveled to VCU earlier this season the inevitable occurred – the Minutemen turned the ball over 24 times and lost by 18. Make no mistake, UMass is going to cough it up more than a few times tonight, but I'm confident that the change in venue and situation (UMass playing for its NCAA Tournament life) is going to make this more of a competitive matchup. And another thing to consider is VCU isn't the same team away from home. The Rams played nine games against A-10 opponents on the road/neutral and had exactly one win by more than seven points – against the worst team in the league, Duquesne.

VCU vs. St. Joe's - Win by 3
VCU at Temple - Loss by 8
VCU at Xavier - Win Read more


Tags: College Basketball UMass Minutemen VCU Rams Andrew Lange




SEC Tournament Betting Free Play: Missouri Tigers vs. Ole Miss Rebels

03.15.2013     11:07 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Missouri vs. Mississippi +5 O/U 153.5
Recommendation: Mississippi


When people think Ole Miss they think an underachieving squad that recently did the unthinkable and lost to woeful Mississippi State. But this is a squad that still won 23 games and went a respectable 12-6 in SEC play. Are there flaws? Absolutely. But I like the fact that rather than pack it in the Rebels beat Alabama and went on the road and roughed up LSU following the embarrassing lost to rival MSU. Missouri played a tougher SEC slate than Ole Miss but at 11-7 in league play, the Tigers also have flaws – most notably performing well away from home against quality competition. I'm whipping the slate clean with the underdog and giving them a shot to stick around and potentially pull off the upset.

Follow me on Twitter @LangeSportsmemo



Tags: College Basketball Missouri Tigers Ole Miss Rebels Andrew Lange




MAC Tournament Betting Free Play: Miami-Ohio RedHawks vs. Eastern Michigan Eagles

03.13.2013     07:56 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Miami-OH vs. Eastern Michigan +2.5 O/U 113
Recommendation: Eastern Michigan


A lot of this line has to do with the fact that Miami-Ohio played in the MAC's stronger East Division and went 3-13 while Eastern Michigan finished below .500 in the weaker West Division. Flip-flop divisions with both teams and you'd probably have similar outcomes. But just because you played in the East doesn't mean you are good or need to be laying points on a neutral floor. In MAC play, Miami was favored four times – all of which on its home floor and went 1-3 SU and 0-3-1 ATS. Eastern Michigan had the same issues, failing to cover four of the five times it was favored vs. the MAC. Ironically, the lone cover for EMU came at home against Miami. The Eagles won 65-58 as 2.5-point chalk. EMU tends to struggle against athletic teams that can score in bunches hence blowout losses to Toledo, Akron, Kent State and Ohio. Miami has athletes but isn't a very efficient (95.2 ppp, Read more


Tags: College Basketball Miami-Ohio RedHawks Eastern Michigan Eagles Andrew Lange




Big Sky Tournament Betting Preview

03.12.2013     11:08 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Big Sky Tournament Preview

The format of the Big Sky Tournament changes seemingly every year. Last year, only six teams made the field and the first round were at campus sites. The semifinals were at top seed Montana and the Grizzlies defeated second seed Weber State, 85-66, in the finals. This year sets up for an identical scenario with Montana hosting and Weber once again the No. 2 seed. After the first round they reseed the teams with Montana playing the lowest remaining seed in the semifinals.

First Round Pick: Southern Utah/North Dakota OVER
I'm not usually looking to play neutral site conference tournament games over the total but both teams have obviously played in Montana's gym – which is normal in terms of back drop and depth perception – and I'm confident that pace of the game will be fairly high. In the two regular season meetings, SUU and ND hit 72 and 70 possessions. Both teams score and allow about a point per possession which gives us a raw score around 140. In the first meeting, SUU won 79-67 and like a lot of lower-level Big Sky games – because a lot these teams don't defend particularly Read more


Tags: College Basketball Andrew Lange




C-USA Tournament Betting Preview

03.11.2013     03:55 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
C-USA Tournament Preview

Top seed Memphis has won six of the last seven conference tournaments but five of those were in the friendly confines of the FedEx Forum. This year's tournament is in Tulsa and the champion will have to win at least three games. Memphis didn't lose a regular season conference game and is obviously headed to the Big Dance regardless of this week's outcome. No. 2 seed Southern Miss is in the at-large discussion but it'll need no less than a title game appearance to be considered. Central Florida would have been the fourth seed but is ineligible for the postseason.

First Round Pick/Darkhorse: Name a team in college basketball that endured more emotional highs and lows than Marshall. You probably could drum up a similar situation but the Thundering Herd have been there and back and then some this season. What we know about this squad is that on any given day they can beat anyone in the league. Despite its 6-10 league record, Marshall swept Central Florida, just beat No. 2 seed Southern Miss (after losing to the Eagles by 56 in late January), and went on the road to Memphis and lost by 1. They have absolutely Read more


Tags: College Basketball Andrew Lange



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