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October

31

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MLB Gambling Free Pick: Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigers

06.04.2013     12:14 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Tampa Bay (Moore) at Detroit (Sanchez) -140 O/U 8
Recommendation: Detroit


Over his next few starts, I'm think we'll start to see Tampa’s Matt Moore come back down to earth. Moore is currently 8-0 with a 2.18 ERA but nearly all of peripheral numbers suggest he's been fortunate. His BABIP (.201) is the lowest of any qualified starter, as is his left-on-base percentage (91.1). His xFIP (4.38) ranks 79th overall, right behind Kevin Slowey and Phil Hughes. And to top it all off, his velocity has been down a few ticks from where he was at last season. No question Moore has the makeup of being a long term, above average American League starter, but his low-2 ERA days are numbered. Meanwhile there is nothing fluky about Detroit's Anibal Sanchez. He's posted 89 strikeouts in 71 innings and two starts that produced a whopping 26 swinging strikes. Overall, Sanchez has actually outpitched his 2.79 ERA with a 2.42 xFIP. A few years ago, this line would have been close to a pick 'em but the Read more


Tags: MLB Detroit Tigers Tampa Bay Rays Andrew Lange




MLB Gambling Free Pick: Chicago White Sox at Seattle Mariners

06.03.2013     07:06 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Chicago WS (Danks) at Seattle (Saunders) -115 O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Seattle


The fact that I am throwing support Joe Saunders’ way should give you a good idea of how little confidence I have in John Danks right now. Danks of course is coming off shoulder surgery and missed an entire year. In two starts since his return, the lefty has allowed six earned runs and three home runs in 10 innings against Miami and the Cubs. His average fastball in those two outings was around 88 mph and there are rumbling that at the young age of 28, Danks will need to use his “guile” rather than “stuff” to survive at the MLB level moving forward. Saunders has that whole home/road dichotomy thing working and to a certain degree it makes sense he’s had more success at home in a more pitcher friendly environment. He’s still a sub-par American League arm in my book but if I’m going to trust him, it’ll be at Safeco against a weak-hitting lineup like the Read more


Tags: MLB Chicago White Sox Seattle Mariners Andrew Lange




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Chicago White Sox at Oakland A's

06.02.2013     07:45 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Chicago WS (Sale) at Oakland (Parker) -110 O/U 7
Recommendation: Under


Despite having a start skipped and another cut short due to rain, all indications point towards Chicago's Chris Sale being good to go for this afternoon's start in Oakland. And so long as he's close to being 100 – I doubt the White Sox would risk their prized possession – we're talking about one of the top left-handed arms in all of baseball. He faces an Oakland offense that after leading the AL in runs for the month of April (by 20) has come crashing down to earth with .235/.318/.696 splits for the month of May. Oakland's Jarrod Parker has pitched much better of late with four straight quality starts. If you look at his seasonal starts, it was tough sledding against offenses like Cleveland, Baltimore, and Detroit. But against more modest competition, he's been effective. And the reason I bring that up is today's opponent may be the weakest offense Parker has faced all season. Kansas City hasn't hit the Read more


Tags: MLB Oakland A's Chicago White Sox Andrew Lange




MLB Betting Free Play: Toronto Blue Jays at Atlanta Braves

05.29.2013     06:54 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Toronto (Rogers) at Atlanta (Medlen) -175 O/U 8
Recommendation: Over


The fact that Esmil Rogers is the 10th Blue Jays pitcher to start this year indicates the team certainly prefers him in the role of reliever. But even out of the bullpen, Rogers has had his struggles with 30 hits allowed and a 14-8 K-to-BB ratio in 25.2 innings of work. He has decent stuff and his career numbers are skewed due to Coors Field but given Toronto's track record with starting pitchers, if he was good enough, he would have already been given an opportunity to start. I expect 5 inning max out of Rogers which puts half the game in the hands of a bullpen that threw eight innings last night. Atlanta's Kris Medlen boasts an ERA of 3.16 but the rest of his numbers suggest he's once again been on the fortunate side. His strikeouts are down, walks are up, fly balls are up, and his FIP/xFIP are well below league average. After a slow start to the month, Toronto has put together a 12-9 run while averaging over six runs Read more


Tags: MLB Atlanta Braves Toronto Blue Jays Andrew Lange




Sports Betting Podcast 5-27-2013 with Handicapper Erin Rynning

05.27.2013     09:47 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Monday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicapper Erin Rynning. Erin and host Andrew Lange rolled through all of today's mid-afternoon and evening Interleague MLB.

Today's segments
Erin Rynning - MLB Every Game of the Board

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.



Tags: MLB Erin Rynning




MLB Betting Free Play: Los Angeles Angels at Kansas City Royals

05.25.2013     07:40 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
LA Angels (Buckner) at Kansas City (Guthrie) -130 O/U 9
Recommendation: Over


The Angels are finally starting to click offensively with 47 runs over their last six games (all victories). Note that five of those six games were against right-handed starters which they'll see today in Jeremy Guthrie. Guthrie's regression is already in full swing after getting pounded by Houston and these same Angels his last two starts. His numbers suggest more struggles are coming: .264 BABIP, 90.9% LOB, 5.88 FIP, 4.75 FIP. Not to mention 4.85 Ks and 3.03 BBs per 9 innings – rates you typically associate with a mid-4 or higher ERA in the American League. LA will send former KC 2nd round pick Billy Buckner to the hill. Buckner hasn't thrown in the bigs since 2010 and his career numbers (138.1 IP, 173 hits, 6.25 ERA) give us a good indication why. He was at one point traded for Dontrelle Willis! Even though KC's offense is nothing to get excited about, when they do score runs, it typically comes Read more


Tags: MLB Los Angeles Angels Kansas City Royals Andrew Lange




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers

05.22.2013     06:31 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
LA Dodgers (Ryu) -110 at Milwaukee (Peralta) O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Over


Hyun-Jin Ryu has been solid thus far; like a lot of Far East products he features an arsenal of different pitches at different speeds. He's had a fairly favorable schedule with four games in LA and two in San Francisco and New York. In games at Atlanta, Baltimore, and Arizona, Ryu was a bit more hittable, allowing nine earned runs in 17 innings. Coming from the left side, I view today as perhaps his toughest assignment with the Brewers loaded with right-handed bats in a hitter friendly park.

Wily Peralta hasn't been the most fortunate starter in baseball but his 29-to-17 K-to-BB ratio in 50 innings certainly hasn't helped his cause. I like Peralta's groundball rate (54.5%) but his inability to consistently miss bats and avoid the long ball (6 HRs allowed) makes him a fringe NL arm in my book. Also note that his start in LA (6 IP, 3 ERs) was with Doug Eddings behind the plate.

And while Read more


Tags: MLB Los Angeles Dodgers Milwaukee Brewers Andrew Lange




MLB Handicapper Free Pick: Kansas City Royals at Houston Astros

05.21.2013     10:34 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Kansas City (Davis) -125 at Houston (Norris) O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Over


Kansas City's Wade Davis has probably been a bit unlucky this season (.393 BABIP) but you have to be careful when calling for a pitcher's luck to turn, especially when dealing with a fringe arm like Davis. Keep in mind Davis' struggles are nothing new. In 2010 and 2011, as a starter, Davis was a below average AL starter with xFIPs of 4.61 and 4.82 respectively. I've always been a believer of Bud Norris but I do have some concerns after he left his last start with back spasms. His strikeouts this season are way down (33 in 50 IP) after posting a K per inning in 2012. Some of that has to do with pitching in the American League but with only 4 Ks in his last two starts, he doesn't appear to be in great form. Neither offense is much to get excited about but I see the potential for a lot of balls to be put in play tonight and as a result, we'll take a look at the over.




Tags: MLB Kansas City Royals Houston Astros Andrew Lange




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies

05.20.2013     09:44 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Arizona (Corbin) -110 at Colorado (Garland) O/U 9.5
Recommendation: Arizona


Arizona's Patrick Corbin has been flawless this season with a 1.52 ERA and solid 41-to-17 K-to-BB ratio. He’s a young lefty arm who has seen an uptick in velocity and plays on a quality team that is not overpriced in the betting markets. It would be foolish to think Corbin isn't going to regress some (see 3.91 xFIP) but despite his success the betting markets continue to bet against this kid and as a result his value has remained. He should be north of -125 in this particular matchup yet you can get him for as cheap as -110. Colorado's Jon Garland has thrown three straight games in which he's lasted only five innings and allowed three earned runs. With 26 strikeouts in 46 innings Garland simply isn't able to fool many batters at this point in his career. There are some metrics that suggest the starting pitching matchup is close but the eye test tells me to support the premium lefty arm at a discounted price. Read more


Tags: MLB Arizona Diamonbacks Colorado Rockies Andrew Lange




MLB Handicapping: Starting pitchers and unsustainable numbers

05.13.2013     12:06 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
We're far enough into the MLB season that we can start to look at starting pitchers with unsustainable numbers. BABPIP has long been a tool of grading the lucky from unlucky. There are some exceptions – ex. Detroit's pitchers typically have higher BABIPs because of poor defense whereas Tampa's BABIPs have historically been lower than the league average of .300 because of better than average defense. The league average left-on-base percentage in right around 70%. Matt Moore is a damn good pitcher but his 96.1% will inevitably go down. Last year's top mark, from teammate Jeremy Hellickson, was 82.7%. ERA-FIP difference is another good tool – Jeremy Guthrie's ERA is 2.28 but his FIP is 4.60 which indicates he's been more fortunate than good. Max Scherzer's ERA is 3.61 yet his FIP is 1.88 which indicates he's been stellar with what he can control – most notably the art of missing bats (11.6 K/9). Lastly is HR/FB ratio. Baltimore's Wei-Yin Chen's groundball rate is a ridiculously low 31.5% yet only 4.5% of fly balls resulted in home runs. Keep in mind Chen allowed 29 homers last season so we can expect balls to leave the yard with more frequency moving forward. Keep Read more


Tags: MLB Andrew Lange



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