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MLB Handicapper Free Play: Kansas City Royals at Atlanta Braves

04.16.2013     12:16 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Kansas City (Guthrie) +165 at Atlanta (Medlen) O/U 7
Recommendation: Kansas City

I may be in the minority but I think Atlanta's Kris Medlen is going to struggle at times this season. Last season's numbers were outrageous and while Medlen did pitch well, he was also fortunate – very fortunate in fact with a .261 BABIP and 85% left on base rate. He's back at it again this season with a 1.50 ERA through two starts but I thought he struggled some against the Phillies (5 IP, 4 BBs, 3 Ks, 2 ERs) and like a lot of starters was able to cruise past the woeful Marlins. I know the Braves are the hottest team in baseball but to see Medlen as high as -180 vs. an American League team and a viable arm in Jeremy Guthrie seems a little steep. It's early but I like that the Royals have shown a decent amount of plate discipline (5.5 Ks per game vs. 6.7 in 2012). They've hit an AL-low four home runs but the power production will eventually come – it's the offensive approach that will Read more

Tags: MLB Atlanta Braves Kansas City Royals Andrew Lange

MLB Handicapper Free Play: New York Mets at Minnesota Twins

04.13.2013     07:38 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
NY Mets (Harvey) -130 at Minnesota (Diamond) O/U 7
Recommendation: New York

So the word is out on New York's Matt Harvey being one of the premier young arms in the game. In two starts, the big right hander racked up 19 strikeouts and allowed only four hits. I wasn't big fan of the Mets extending him last time out – they were up 7-1 and Harvey was at 95 pitches prior to sending him out for the seventh inning. This is not the type of arm you want to mess with. But for the time being we have a premium arm that in a few more starts will be commanding a premium price. Minnesota sends Scott Diamond to the hill. He had off-season surgery and was brought along slowly during spring training. With cold weather and a pitch count I'm not expecting a top notch performance from Diamond. Also note that shadows have a big impact on early season mid-afternoon games at Target Field. It is expected to be partly cloudy but if the sun peaks in, hitting Harvey could be damn near impossible. Read more

Tags: MLB New York Mets Minnesota Twins Andrew Lange

MLB Handicapper Free Play: Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals

04.10.2013     06:31 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Minnesota (Hendriks) +134 at Kansas City (Davis) O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Minnesota

Last season in Tampa Bay Wade Davis enjoyed a lot of success pitching out of the bullpen. The combination of a starters' command and an increase in velocity resulted in 87 strikeouts and a 2.43 ERA in 70.1 innings of work. Now with the Royals and asked to be a starter, I see Davis as no better than a fringe American League arm (see: 4 IP, 9 hits, 4 ERs in first start at Philadelphia). Keep in mind Davis had shoulder issues during spring training and may need longer to rebuild his stamina. Like Davis, Minnesota's Liam Hendriks isn't going to wow you. His minor league numbers were really good (2.82 ERA in 245.7 innings) but he's struggled at the major league level. The Twins believe he could stick as a starter but after his first outing (4.2 IP, 4 ERs) there are rumblings he could be sent back down. I expect his best effort tonight as the Twins look to avoid the sweep. Value play here as Davis isn't Read more

Tags: MLB Minnesota Twins Kansas City Royals Andrew Lange

MLB Handicapper Free Play: San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies

04.07.2013     07:19 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
San Diego (Volquez) at Colorado (Chacin) -145 O/U 10.5
Recommendation: Colorado

San Diego's Edinson Volquez has one redeeming quality – he pitches in Petco Park where on occasion he can be counted on for a quality start. Outside of that, Volquez doesn't offer much upside. He's dealt with mechanical issues for over a year and it's resulted in little to no command. After getting smacked around in his first start Padres pitching coach Darren Balsley was back to the drawing board of trying to get Volquez's mechanics in order. So here we are with a mediocre pitcher struggling with his mechanics and confidence tossing in Coors Field. Colorado's Jhoulys Chacin does has upside so long as he's healthy. And when he's healthy – which he appears to be this season – he's got enough stuff to overcome Coors Field (see: 38 career starts, 4.18 ERA). The Padres have scored 13 runs in their first five games – the last two vs. Jeff Francis and Jon Garland in Coors. I think the Read more

Tags: MLB San Diego Padres Colorado Rockies Andrew Lange

MLB Betting Free Play: Washington Nationals at Cincinnati Reds

04.05.2013     07:31 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Washington (Haren) at Cincinnati (Bailey) -120 O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Cincinnati

Bettors are already aware of Roy Halladay's rapid decline but not far behind him is Dan Haren. In 2009, Haren posted a 3.14 ERA with 223 strikeouts in 229 innings. And as recent as two years ago he was seen mowing down American League hitters to the tune of 192 Ks in 238.1 innings with a 3.17 ERA. But last year's decline (176.2 IP, 142 Ks, 4.33 ERA) was no fluke. Haren lost his velocity and fell in love with his cutter and the results weren't positive. Now in Washington, Haren has a chance to bounce back – and really is a good situation of having three stud pitchers ahead of him in the rotation and getting to toss in the National League. However, reports this spring weren't good. In one game he was 84-87 on the gun and topped out at 89. In his last spring start things were slightly better and one scout said he was "getting close" to regaining his form. I’m still leery and note Read more

Tags: MLB Washington Nationals Cincinnati Reds Andrew Lange

College Basketball Betting Trends: MSG has history of producing NIT semifinal UNDERS

04.02.2013     07:05 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Taking a look at a totals trend for tonight's NIT. I went back to 2006 and spotted that 10 of the last 14 semifinal matchups (see chart below) went under the total, including six straight. And that shouldn't come as a big surprise. For the past few weeks these teams have been playing loose, carefree basketball, in comfortable environments. Now they get to Madison Square Garden and all of a sudden it's a more serious atmosphere in a completely different type of venue. And don't forget the inflation in the betting markets. Secondary tournaments are notorious for going over the total and bettors – myself included – are constantly pounding away at them despite some significant line moves. And why not? In the six games leading up to the semifinals, Baylor and BYU posted an average game score of 161.5 ppg. That makes tonight’s 152.5 seem cheap, no? But there have been plenty of on-paper, over-esque matchups in the past and based on the historical results of these NIT semifinals they simply don’t have a strong track record. I think this trend has some merit and made plays on both games UNDER the total. 

Follow me on Twitter Read more

Tags: College Basketball BYU Cougars Baylor Bears Andrew Lange

MLB Handicapper Free Play: San Diego Padres at New York Mets

04.01.2013     07:21 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
San Diego (Volquez) at NY Mets (Niese) -136 O/U 7.5
Recommendation: New York

Last year, San Diego's Edinson Volquez was somehow able to put together a respectable body of work: 11-11, 4.14 ERA. But make no mistake, it was a struggle. He suffered from mechanical issues for much of the season and it led to a career-high 105 walks. His saving grace was getting to toss 100 innings in Petco. When he was forced to go on the road, the results were dismal: 15 starts, 5.60 ERA, 1.65 WHIP. Well it's a new season but I'm reading a lot of the same stuff that plagued Volquez last year. In his last spring training start, Volquez walked six batters and admitted afterwards that once again his mechanics were off. Also note that he threw in the World Baseball Classic (10.1 IP, 6 walks) which is notorious for throwing pitchers off of their normal MLB routines. No question New York's Jon Niese was a bit fortunate last year with .272 BABIP and 76.5% LOB rates. However, I see positives in that he's steadily Read more

Tags: MLB San Diego Padres New York Mets Andrew Lange

NCAA Sweet Sixteen Betting Podcast 3-29-2013 with Handicapper Brent Crow

03.29.2013     11:51 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Friday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicapper Brent Crow and host Andrew Lange as they broke down tonight's four Sweet Sixteen matchups.

Today's segments
Brent Crow - Friday Sweet Sixteen

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: College Basketball Brent Crow Andrew Lange

MLB Betting Preview Podcast with Sportsmemo Handicapper Erin Rynning

03.29.2013     11:50 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Sportsmemo Handicappers Erin Rynning and Andrew Lange put together our annual MLB Preview Podcast. On Thursday, Rynning and Lange discussed the American League and on today's show broke down the National League. Click links to listen.

American League Preview

National League Preview
Those interested can take advantage of our opening month MLB Podcast special offer – full April coverage from the handicapper of your choice for the discounted rate of $249. Offer not available online and expires Monday, April 1. Call the office toll free at 1-800-575-3069 to cash in.

To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage.

ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.

Tags: MLB Erin Rynning Andrew Lange

NCAA Tournament Gambling: Oregon reaches Sweet Sixteen despite turnover issues

03.27.2013     08:40 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange blog entry.
Oregon vs. Louisville -10 O/U 129.5

It is hard to win in March when you can't take care of the basketball. That is what makes Oregon's two tournament wins all the more remarkable. The Ducks coughed it up 18 times in their first round win over Oklahoma State and matched that number against Saint Louis. Overall, the Ducks had 10 more turnovers than their opponents yet won by margins of 13 and 17. Oregon was able to offset its high rate of miscues by playing strong defense, particularly against the three-point shot. OSU and SLU shot a combined 8-of-38, 21% from deep. The Ducks were also a combined +12 on the glass. The question now becomes can Oregon beat (or hang) with Louisville with 18 turnovers? Probably not. The Cardinals are obviously a menace defensively but don't ignore how strong Read more

Tags: College Basketball Louisville Cardinals Oregon Ducks Andrew Lange


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