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October

22

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MLB Handicapper Free Pick: Kansas City Royals at Houston Astros

05.21.2013     10:34 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Kansas City (Davis) -125 at Houston (Norris) O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Over


Kansas City's Wade Davis has probably been a bit unlucky this season (.393 BABIP) but you have to be careful when calling for a pitcher's luck to turn, especially when dealing with a fringe arm like Davis. Keep in mind Davis' struggles are nothing new. In 2010 and 2011, as a starter, Davis was a below average AL starter with xFIPs of 4.61 and 4.82 respectively. I've always been a believer of Bud Norris but I do have some concerns after he left his last start with back spasms. His strikeouts this season are way down (33 in 50 IP) after posting a K per inning in 2012. Some of that has to do with pitching in the American League but with only 4 Ks in his last two starts, he doesn't appear to be in great form. Neither offense is much to get excited about but I see the potential for a lot of balls to be put in play tonight and as a result, we'll take a look at the over.




Tags: MLB Kansas City Royals Houston Astros Andrew Lange




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies

05.20.2013     09:44 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Arizona (Corbin) -110 at Colorado (Garland) O/U 9.5
Recommendation: Arizona


Arizona's Patrick Corbin has been flawless this season with a 1.52 ERA and solid 41-to-17 K-to-BB ratio. He’s a young lefty arm who has seen an uptick in velocity and plays on a quality team that is not overpriced in the betting markets. It would be foolish to think Corbin isn't going to regress some (see 3.91 xFIP) but despite his success the betting markets continue to bet against this kid and as a result his value has remained. He should be north of -125 in this particular matchup yet you can get him for as cheap as -110. Colorado's Jon Garland has thrown three straight games in which he's lasted only five innings and allowed three earned runs. With 26 strikeouts in 46 innings Garland simply isn't able to fool many batters at this point in his career. There are some metrics that suggest the starting pitching matchup is close but the eye test tells me to support the premium lefty arm at a discounted price. Read more


Tags: MLB Arizona Diamonbacks Colorado Rockies Andrew Lange




MLB Handicapping: Starting pitchers and unsustainable numbers

05.13.2013     12:06 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
We're far enough into the MLB season that we can start to look at starting pitchers with unsustainable numbers. BABPIP has long been a tool of grading the lucky from unlucky. There are some exceptions – ex. Detroit's pitchers typically have higher BABIPs because of poor defense whereas Tampa's BABIPs have historically been lower than the league average of .300 because of better than average defense. The league average left-on-base percentage in right around 70%. Matt Moore is a damn good pitcher but his 96.1% will inevitably go down. Last year's top mark, from teammate Jeremy Hellickson, was 82.7%. ERA-FIP difference is another good tool – Jeremy Guthrie's ERA is 2.28 but his FIP is 4.60 which indicates he's been more fortunate than good. Max Scherzer's ERA is 3.61 yet his FIP is 1.88 which indicates he's been stellar with what he can control – most notably the art of missing bats (11.6 K/9). Lastly is HR/FB ratio. Baltimore's Wei-Yin Chen's groundball rate is a ridiculously low 31.5% yet only 4.5% of fly balls resulted in home runs. Keep in mind Chen allowed 29 homers last season so we can expect balls to leave the yard with more frequency moving forward. Keep Read more


Tags: MLB Andrew Lange




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Oakland A's at Seattle Mariners

05.11.2013     07:33 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Oakland (Parker) at Seattle (Maurer) -105 O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Over


I thought for sure that the Oakland A's would place Jarrod Parker on the DL, especially after hearing quotes like this...


"It's been something that's been bothering me a little bit," Parker said. "I got some pitches that were up in the zone. If I was 100 percent, I don't think they would be at that location."

He hasn't had the velocity he had last year," Melvin said. "The neck strain could have something to do with that."



Parker is apparently dealing with a neck strain that has likely contributed to his significant decline (7.34 ERA, 34. 1IP, 50 hits, 18 BBs, 25 Ks). And he doesn't have the element of surprise having faced the Mariners four times already, including earlier this season (5 IP, 4 ERs, 3 BBs, 1 K).

Seattle's Brandon Maurer has done just enough to stay at the MLB level but the overall product is nothing to get Read more


Tags: MLB Oakland A's Seattle Mariners Andrew Lange




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05.10.2013     07:55 AM     Printer Friendly
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MLB Gambling Free Play: Texas Rangers at Milwaukee Brewers

05.07.2013     08:02 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Texas (Grimm) -110 at Milwaukee (Peralta) O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Over


Despite the fact that 14 of 19 games have gone over the total at Miller Marker this season, only once has a game closed with a total of 9. Oddsmakers and the betting markets just haven't caught on that everything about these games screams offense. For starters, Milwaukee doesn't have any elite level starting pitchers. Yovani Gallardo has a decent pedigree but has struggled. Kyle Lohse is the only pitcher has performed up to his capabilities but he's obviously not involved this evening. And Marco Estrada and tonight's starter Wily Peralta have proved to be quite hittable with ERA's currently hovering around 6. Then of course there is Milwaukee's bullpen which statistically hasn't been as bad as it seems but still sports a group ERA north of 4.00. Finally, Milwaukee’s offense has been solid, especially at home where they average over five runs per game with .280/.811 splits. Tonight, Peralta is on the hill, and Read more


Tags: MLB Milwaukee Brewers Texas Rangers Andrew Lange




MLB Handicapper Free Play: St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers

05.04.2013     07:50 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
St. Louis (Wainwright) -120 at Milwaukee (Gallardo) O/U 7.5
Recommendation: St. Louis


In 2011 and 2012, Milwaukee's Yovani Gallardo struck out exactly a batter per inning – a mark of an above average MLB starter. This season, his numbers are way down with only 22 strikeouts in 36 innings. That is tied to the fact that his velocity is down. Gallardo is perhaps rounding into form with three straight quality starts but I'm not sure some of it didn't have to do with facing Pittsburgh, San Diego, and San Francisco. In his first three starts, he faced St. Louis, Arizona, and Colorado, three of the top offensive teams in the NL and they smacked him around for 12 runs in 16.1 IP. But the white elephant in this matchup is the fact that Gallardo has a horrific track record vs. St. Louis – something that I don't think is necessarily fluky as the Cardinals have always been a smart, well prepared organization. Some have suggested that they picked up on Gallardo tipping pitches but Read more


Tags: MLB St. Louis Cardinals Milwaukee Brewers Andrew Lange




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros

05.02.2013     07:44 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Detroit (Porcello) -170 at Houston (Lyles) O/U 9
Recommendation: Over


Considering the lineup they are carting out there on a daily basis, it is amazing that the Houston Astros rank 7th in the American League in slugging pct. (.413) and 8th in OPS (.730). A lot of that is bolstered by the infamous 16-run explosion vs. Seattle back in early April but overall, the Astros are finding ways to put a decent amount of runs on the board. Detroit's Rick Porcello had a bounce back performance last time out against Atlanta (6.1 IP, 3 ERs) but I watched that start and he was a pitch or two away from imploding yet again. Porcello doesn't have a pitch he can put batters away with and as a result he pitches to a lot of contact (19.1 IP, 28 hits, 8 Ks).

The fact that Jordan Lyles started the season in the minors is a huge red flag. Especially when his competition was Philip Humber (7.58 ERA), Brad Peacock (9.41) and Erik Bedard (8.20). And while manager Bo Porter is Read more


Tags: MLB Houston Astros Detroit Tigers Andrew Lange




MLB Betting Free Play: Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks

04.26.2013     07:31 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Colorado (Nicasio) at Arizona (McCarthy) -135 O/U 9
Recommendation: Over


Arizona's Brandon McCarthy has had a rough go of it in his return after getting hit in the head with a line drive late last season. In four starts McCarthy has allowed 36 hits and 17 earned runs while posting only 11 strikeouts. No question he's been a bit on the unlucky side (.391 BABIP, 7.06 ERA vs. 4.13 xFIP) but he simply hasn't shown the type of stuff that can consistently miss bats and/or get people out. Right now, I see McCarthy's ceiling as a 5- or 6-inning, 3 or 4 earned run type of pitcher. Unlike Jorge De La Rosa and Jhoulys Chacin, Juan Nicasio has never come off as a guy who can have prolonged success at the MLB level. In 20.1 innings of work, the righty has allowed 12 runs, 12 walks, and only 12 strikeouts. And there is nothing fluky about his numbers with a .262 BABIP and nearly identical ERA (5.31) and xFIP (5.34). These two pitchers squared off last week in Coors Field with Arizona winning 5-4. There Read more


Tags: MLB Arizona Diamonbacks Colorado Rockies Andrew Lange




MLB Gambling Free Pick: Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds

04.23.2013     07:26 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Chicago Cubs (Villanueva) at Cincinnati (Cingrani)
Recommendation: 5-inning UNDER 4


Eighteen games into the season and we've established more than a few things in regards to the Chicago Cubs. First, their starting pitching has actually been fairly strong with a team ERA of 3.10 and .208 BAA. Second, the offense is the opposite of strong with dismal splits of .230/.286/.680. Lastly, and this was on full display last night, the bullpen is horrific with a 4.86 ERA and five blown saves. Lump those things together and a play on the 5-inning UNDER makes sense. Carlos Villanueva is one of Chicago's starters who has fared well with a 1.29 ERA in three starts. Keep in mind Villanueva performed admirably during his two years in Toronto with a 4.11 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. Cincinnati's Tony Cingrani has plenty of upside coming from the left side with a plus fastball. He threw well in his debut (5 IP, 1 ER, 8 Ks) and I see that success continuing as the teams face him for the first time. Obviously Read more


Tags: MLB Chicago Cubs Cincinnati Reds Andrew Lange



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, Ian Cameron, and Paul Stone. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Oct 22, 2014 06:37 PM.