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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Under- and over-reacting to early season football results

09.08.2014     07:50 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
I probably heard the same expression 20 times last week: ‘Don’t overreact to Week 1 results.’   It’s one of those handicapping mantras that we hear every year right around this time – the very beginning of football season. 

In basketball or baseball there’s no week off between the first two games and the early season betting markets don’t react intensely off a single poor performance.  But for football – both NFL and college – the prevailing conventional wisdom is that Week 1 results are a thing to take with a grain of salt.

The concept certainly makes sense.  Coaches – especially college football coaches – will tell you that they expect their biggest improvement between Week 1 and Week 2.  Without the benefit of preseason games or even scrimmages against opposing squads, teams often ‘work out the kinks’ and ‘get up to game speed’ in their initial contest.  The team you expected to see this year (at least for bettors who do some homework and have opinions coming into the campaign) might not be the team you saw in Week 1, but there’s Read more

Tags: NFL College Football Teddy Covers

Oddsmaker says Chicago Bears are an OVER team

09.05.2014     10:55 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Las Vegas oddsmakers Jay Kornegay, Jimmy Vaccaro, and Chris Andrews weigh in on the Chicago Bears. Kornegay said the Bears will be in a lot of shootouts this season.

Kornegay: When you’re talking about moving numbers below 10, that takes quite a bit of money. A half game is very valuable. To win the Super Bowl, the most money is on the Seahawks. But the most tickets we’ve sold to win it are on the Bears, Packers and Vikings. Midwesterners bet on their teams. I’ve always told people that once the Cubs win the World Series, I’ll probably be out of a job.

Tags: NFL Chicago Bears

Sportsbooks get hammered on Temple's upset over Vanderbilt

09.03.2014     11:42 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Not surprising, a lot of sportsbooks got nailed on last Thursday's Temple-Vanderbilt result. The Commodores opened -17 back in late July at CRIS but closed -8.5. Sportsmemo Handicapper Erin Rynning and his clients were a part of the move as ER released +13.5. The end result was a lopsided 37-7 Owls victory.

Stoneback estimated he took "at least eight or nine" $5,000 limit bets on Temple in addition to a few larger bets from casino players who were staying at the hotel and were offered extended limits.

"There wasn't any money on Vanderbilt," Stoneback said. "It was disastrous."

Tags: College Football Tempe Owls Vanderbilt Commodores Erin Rynning

Plenty of football handicapping contests to choose from

09.03.2014     05:58 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Anthony Curtis gives us the scoop on some of this year's Las Vegas football contests.

Tags: NFL College Football Las Vegas

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: NFC East Reg Flags

09.02.2014     07:06 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Bettors react strongly to the NFL Preseason.  First string offenses that look good in August tend to attract betting market support.  The markets are much less reactive to defensive success or failure compared to offensive production.  And bettors tend to largely ignore coaching gameplans; unable to differentiate between coaches who were aggressively trying to set a tone for winning or whether their primary focus was on roster evaluation and personnel decisions.

The two primary areas where preseason results affect the betting markets are adjusting Week 1 numbers and moving the juice on season over/under win totals.  Some of these line moves are absolutely warranted; others are based on erroneous reactions to essentially meaningless football games.

I’m not willing to write off a team’s regular season chances based solely on preseason struggles.  But ignoring those struggles completely is the moral equivalent of sticking your head in the sand. A repeated inability to execute the game plan in August often carries over into September.

One NFL Division had more than their fair share of struggles in August, on at least one Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

College Football Betting Preview: Fresno State Bulldogs at USC Trojans

08.28.2014     02:32 PM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC blog entry.
Fresno State at USC
Saturday, 4:30 pm PT - FOX
CRIS Opener:
USC -22 O/U 58
CRIS Current: USC -21.5 O/U 57.5
Ian’s Recommendation: USC

Rematch of last year’s Las Vegas Bowl in which USC demolished a better Fresno State squad, 45-20. Fresno State’s success was contingent upon its offense behind quarterback Derek Carr. He has since moved on to the NFL and head coach Tim DeRuyter has narrowed his replacement down to either junior Brian Burrell or Duke transfer Brandon Connette. Regardless of who starts both are expected to play on Saturday. This uncertainty doesn’t bode well for Fresno State against a stellar USC defense that welcomes back one of the best defensive lines in the country with Leonard Williams, J.R. Tavai, and Antwaun Woods. And behind them, even with the loss of Jabari Ruffin to a season ending torn ACL injury, they are still very strong Read more

Tags: College Football Fresno State Bulldogs Mountain West USC Trojans PAC-12 Ian Cameron

Nevada sportsbooks seek to get rid of federal tax

08.27.2014     08:42 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Ever wonder where exactly your tax dollars are going? Nevada's sportsbooks raised their hands on that one got a pretty interesting response. The IRS had no freakin' clue. Rep. Dina Titus is wanting to get rid of the tax and keep the money within the state.

“The IRS didn’t even know it existed,” Titus said. “The money just went into some black hole in the general fund. […] It can be reinvested into Nevada’s economy. Gaming is our lifeblood, and this is a drop in the bucket to Washington.”

Tags: Las Vegas

Sportsmemo Handicappers Erin Rynning and Paul Stone face off in Friday Football Showdown

08.27.2014     08:26 AM     Printer Friendly
Sportsmemo Handicappers Erin Rynning and Paul Stone have been pitted up against one another in the first round of the Golden Nugget's Friday Football Showdown on October 10. You can listen to their segment on Las Vegas ESPN Radio (1100 AM) from 2-3 PM PT. Stone took home last year's title with a 5-2 ATS mark in the finals.

Tags: College Football NFL Paul Stone Erin Rynning

College Football Betting Preview: UNLV Rebels at Arizona Wildcats

08.27.2014     07:47 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
UNLV at Arizona
Friday, 7:30 pm PT - ESPN
CRIS Opener:
Arizona -24 O/U 60.5
CRIS Current: Arizona -23.5 O/U 60
Teddy's Recommendation: Arizona

Arizona came to Las Vegas and thoroughly whipped the Rebels last year; a 58-13 blowout that was every bit as lopsided on the field as the final score would suggest. The Wildcats held an enormous team speed advantage to go along with their size edge, creating one big play TD after the next.

UNLV head coach Bobby Hauck following the game in which UNLV trailed by 39 at halftime: “Congratulations to Arizona for coming in and beating the hell out of us. We’ve got to flush this game and move on to the next one because there are no positives.”  The loss actually sparked the UNLV season, a season that they turned around immediately following that defeat with four wins in their next four games, culminating in the Rebels first bowl bid since 2000.

The Read more

Tags: College Football UNLV Rebels Mountain West Arizona Wildcats PAC-12 Teddy Covers

NHL is reportedly headed to Las Vegas

08.27.2014     06:13 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
The NHL in Las Vegas? The NHL in Las Vegas! Reports are saying a team in Sin City is a "done deal" as the league looks to expands in the not-so-distant future. The Las Vegas Coolers, Blackjacks, and Dice were some of the team names Twitter came up with last night. We’ll go ahead and tell you right now that the nickname won’t have anything to do with gambling -- even though all three of those are pretty cool. Bank on something that relates to the desert, Area 51, the heat, or cowboys.

Sources close to the situation have indicated Las Vegas is a done deal, the only thing to be determined being which owner will be entitled to proclaim that he brought the first major league sports franchise to Sin City.

Tags: NHL Las Vegas


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Andrew Lange looks to get a jump on the week with a 10* selection on Friday's Oregon vs. California game on ESPN at 7:30 pm PT. Lange's play is guaranteed to cash or his next football report is on the house.

Drew Martin has a 10* Friday Night Ticket Casher between the South Florida Bulls and the Temple Owls. A critical American Conference Showdown. Jump on board for only $29; this play is guaranteed to cash or you will receive Drew's 20* MWC Game of the Month release on Saturday at absolutely no extra charge.

Nobody wins in the Canadian Football League like Ian Cameron and his track record proves it banking +26.02 units in the CFL since 2012 including a RED HOT 32-22 59% mark for +11.1 units this season. He is ready to deliver the goods once again on Friday night in football action north of the border with his 10* CFL Friday Top Play. You can get it complete with detailed written analysis for just $20 and it is guaranteed to cash or his next CFL play is free.

Erin Rynning and his clients are working on a HUGE October with 91% winners and +10.9 units of profit in college football. For Saturday, Erin checks in with a super-strong 20* Playermaker Report. Cash in for $39. It wins or Sunday's NFL 20* is on the house.

Otto Sports is locked and loaded with another 20* for Saturday's college football action. He's got an unreal track record in college football with over +26 units in the bank last season and already +20 this year thanks to a 15-4 start. Simply put OTTO Sport is the BEST college football handicapper on the planet and this weekend's 20* SEC TOTAL OF THE YEAR is a must have!

Off last Saturday's sweep of the board, Andrew Lange fires right back with a 20* selection on the TCU vs. West Virginia game. Tune in at 12:30 pm PT on ESPN2 for this watch and win opportunity. Lange's play must win or Sunday's top NFL game is on the house.

Rob Veno has carved himself a spot among the nation's elite Best Bet handicappers with his famed 20* Bluechip releases. Since 2007 Rob has posted a record of 105-67 61% +62.6 units with his CFB 20* Bluechip plays. For Saturday action Rob has released his 20* CFB Bluechip Big XII Game Of the Month. You can join Rob on this play for only $39 and it must win or you will receive his next 20* report at no additional cost.

Drew Martin is in with his highest rated play out of the Mountain West Conference. Straight off of last week's 20* winner on the Texas State/ ULM over, he looks to make it three straight 20* cashes in the group of 5 conferences. By now, you know it is a great time to profit in early conference CFB play. This 20* MWC Game of the Month is only $39 and guaranteed to hit or Drew's next top play is on the house.

Rob Veno is among the elite when it comes to his Top Tier releases raking in +29.8 units while posting a 79-58 57.7% mark since 2013 with his CFB 15* Best Bet & 20* Bluechip Totals. Rob has released a 15* CFB Best Bet Totals Destroyer which comes in Saturday action and you can join him on this play for only $25. This selection must win or you will receive Rob's next 10* CFB report free of charge.

Drew Martin is in with a 15* Top Shelf Totals Ticket on a game where the totals market is slow to react. It is in the MAC kicking on Saturday available to watch on ESPN 3. By now, you know Drew concentrates on the non BCS conferences and he has found value on this under the radar total in the Mid American Conference. Jump on board for only $35 guaranteed to win or his next play is on the house.

Erin Rynning and his clients are off to a monster start in the NFL with over +12 units of profit. For Sunday, he comes in with a MONSTER 20* total in the AFC. Hop on board with the NFL's No. 1 handicapper for $39. It must cash or his next top rated football selection is on the house.

Teddy has nailed three straight 20* Big Ticket Reports, all easy, right side cashes like the KC Chiefs at Oakland last Sunday. He is primed to deliver the goods this week with his 20* Big Ticket Sunday Night GAME OF THE YEAR as the Seahawks and Cardinals battle in Arizona, putting his STRONG 62% NFL season on the line. Get it here, now! This play must win or his next report is FREE!

OTTO Sports owns the big plays with 67% winners and +38 units of profit with his top rated 20*s in college and pro football over the last two years. Get Sunday's 20* AFC South Game of the Month for $39. A must win or OTTO's next top play is free of charge.

Drew Martin is very selective when it comes to the NFL and that stands pat this weekend as he is out with only two plays on the NFL card. Drew has his highest rated play of the entire month of October kicking off Sunday afternoon between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the San Francisco 49ers. Drew's Top Shelf NFL Game Of The Month is only $39 guaranteed to win or Drew's next selection is yours at no extra charge.

Unmatched production in the NFL for Andrew Lange and his clients with 62% winners and over +45 units since 2012. He's off to a stellar 10-6 63% start to 2016 so don't miss out on Sunday's 15* Best Bet. It's a guaranteed winner or Lange's next top rated football selection is on the house.

Ian Cameron has a dominant track record with his 20* releases in College Football cashing at a 47-25 65% clip banking +39.1 units with his top rated 20* CFB plays since joining Sportsmemo. Ian is 5-2 71% with his 20* College Football plays this season and he is ready to unleash another strong, top rated winner on Saturday with his 20* CFB C-USA Total Of The Month. You can get it complete with detailed written analysis for $39 and it is guaranteed to cash or his next CFB play is free.

Ian Cameron CRUSHED the books in the NFL last season putting together a very strong winning campaign with a 32-20 record for 62% winning action and +12.3 units of profit. He is rolling this NFL season as well with a strong 17-8 record 68% for +11.8 units of profit. Ian has notched a 5-1 83% record with his NFL 20* plays this season and he is ready to deliver another top rated winner in NFL action on Sunday with his 20* NFL Game Of The Month with strong fundamental and situational aspects combining to make this his strongest NFL side in October. You can get it complete with detailed written analysis for $39 and it is guaranteed to cash or his next NFL play is free.

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