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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Late season NBA betting opportunities Part 2

03.31.2014     08:58 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
You’ll be reading more than enough about the Final Four in the week to come.  You’ll be able to find my initial take on the two games in my ESPN.com piece, midweek.  So I’m going to focus on the NBA in this week’s Wiseguy Report, picking up right where I left off last week, when I broke down a handful of Eastern Conference morphers

It’s worth noting that since I wrote that article, blindly supporting the three bet-on teams that I mentioned (Cleveland, Philadelphia and Brooklyn) while fading my one ‘bet-against squad (Indiana) has produced a 10-5 ATS result.  Hopefully this edition, focusing on Western Conference morphers, will produce similar short term dividends.

The San Antonio Spurs success can’t be a surprise to any breathing human.  No team in the league has been more consistent over the past decade and a half, and San Antonio came one brutal overtime loss short of winning the NBA Championship last Read more



Tags: NBA San Antonio Spurs Denver Nuggets New Orleans Pelicans Golden State Warriors Minnesota Timberwolves Teddy Covers




Anti-online gambling lawmakers scoff a poker being a game of skill

03.28.2014     08:50 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Man, these anti-gambling crusaders are pricks.


“If you want to have online gambling, then come to the Congress. ... If you want to have a poker exception, offer an amendment and see if it will pass,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., who introduced the bill today along with Rep. Jason Chaffetz, R-Utah.

“Sheldon has aligned himself with most Baptists in South Carolina,” Graham said, when asked about the association of his efforts with Adelson’s campaign. “I’m on solid footing with the people of South Carolina that I represent. The fact that Sheldon is on board is a good thing.”







Tags: Poker




MLB Handicapping: Projections and Season O/U Wins

03.27.2014     07:33 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Good article from the new FiveThirtyEight.com blog on baseball predictions/projections.


Speaking of those Vegas over/unders, they’re the most crowdsourced projections we have. Every spring, various sportsbooks release baseline win totals for each team in the upcoming season, inviting bettors to place wagers on whether they believe a team will win more or less games than the oddsmakers think. These over/unders are not technically predictions — their aim is different from PECOTA’s or even Sports Illustrated’s — but they’re hugely predictive because of the stakes involved.

To get a sense of how Vegas sets these over/unders, I spoke with Ed Salmons, head oddsmaker for the Las Vegas Hotel & Casino, which cleared nearly 1 million sports bets in 2013. Like Cannella, Salmons doesn’t use a strictly algorithmic approach, although he is well-versed in sabermetrics. “I look at computerized [projections] before putting numbers out,” he said. “You’d be foolish not

Read more



Tags: MLB




NCAA Tournament Gambling: Short lined games abound for Sweet Sixteen

03.26.2014     07:52 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Las Vegas oddsmakers are expecting the unexpected with Thursday and Friday's NCAA Tournament Sweet Sixteen games. Every game save for San Diego State-Arizona is currently lined at 4.5 or less. Four of last year's eight Sweet Sixteen games were lined at 5 or above.


“These teams are getting so close as far as their talent,” Vaccaro said. “The gap between teams isn’t that great anymore, and you can really see it in the point spreads. There is no game here that would shock anyone with the outcome.”

“The Cinderella slipper is guaranteed to be in the Elite Eight,” McCormick said. “Dayton was probably the best team of the first two rounds for us, with their upset over Ohio State and then following it by beating Syracuse. They were great for the house.”







Tags: College Basketball




NCAA Tournament Betting: Kentucky in great form but Louisville remains moderate favorite

03.25.2014     06:55 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Kentucky vs. Louisville -5 O/U 138.5

Current form or entire body of work? That is the conundrum with Friday's Kentucky-Louisville game. The Wildcats have looked Final Four-esque (4-1 SU, 5-0 ATS) since losing to Florida in the regular season finale. The Cardinals meanwhile received scares in their first two tourney games from Manhattan and Saint Louis – trailing in the second half of both only to pull away late. Prior to the NCAA Tournament, 14 of Louisville's last 15 wins came by double-digits. UK won the regular season meeting in Lexington, 73-66 as 1.5-point favorites. For Friday, Louisville has held steady as a 5-point favorite; something oddsmakers don't feel will change much prior to tip-off.


“The line is based on rating of both teams,” he said. “Kentucky played great Sunday. From what I’ve seen, it was one of their best-played games all year… So yes, the line probably came down a little bit from what I thought it would be originally. But you

Read more



Tags: College Basketball Kentucky Wildcats Louisville Cardinals




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Late season NBA betting opportunities

03.24.2014     09:10 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
While the betting markets focus on post-season college basketball tournaments and the upcoming baseball season, the long and winding NBA campaign still offers plenty of wagering opportunities down the homestretch. 

There are still three and a half weeks left in the regular season.  Most squads have between 12 and 14 games remaining.  And very quietly, underneath the radar, we’ve seen a handful of late season morphers; teams playing well above or well below their full season power rating numbers.  Those are the teams I’m looking to focus on in this week’s Vegas Wiseguy Report, particularly in the Eastern Conference.

The Philadelphia 76ers have lost 24 games in a row as I write this very early on Monday morning.  This is no surprise – the Sixers have been openly tanking since last summer, playing for ping-pong balls, not victories.  And for the better part of the first four months of the campaign, the sportsbooks couldn’t hang a line high enough to get bettors to support this completely anonymous, sorry squad. 

Philly hasn’t gotten any better in recent weeks.  Read more



Tags: NBA Philadelphia 76ers Indiana Pacers Brooklyn Nets Cleveland Cavaliers Teddy Covers




NCAA Tournament Gambling: Selection committee causes uproar in betting community

03.17.2014     11:44 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
No shock to see various oddsmakers question what the hell the NCAA selection committee was thinking when put together this year's shindig.


“That’s probably the hardest bracket I’ve ever seen in my whole life,” said Ed Salmons, assistant sports book director at the LVH Superbook who oversees college basketball. “It was a comedy show to watch all the teams they stacked that Wichita State would have to beat to get to the Final Four. It was over-the-top insane.”

“I just let people bet them all year, and they just kept doing it,” Salmons said of the Shockers. “It adds up. I finally lowered them to 10-to-1 but when I saw this region come out, I had to up them. Their true odds of winning this thing would have to be close to 100-to-1.”







Tags: College Basketball




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: An early look at the Field of 68

03.17.2014     08:16 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
We’ve got brackets to break down! I’ll offer a quick take on the 28 matchups already set for Thursday and Friday. Games are listed in rotation order.

The A-10 got a handful of mediocre teams like Dayton into the NCAA Tournament mix, but the Flyers will certainly be looking forward to a matchup against an Ohio State team that has repeatedly avoided them in non-conference play. The Buckeyes enter the tourney on an 0-6 ATS run; just 4-11 ATS in their last 15 tries as chalk.

Syracuse, too, was a pointspread disaster area down the stretch, cashing only one winning bet in their last eight ballgames. But Western Michigan’s only win against an NCAA Tournament team came on the opening night of the season, back on November 8th, when they beat New Mexico State.

Phil Martelli’s Saint Joseph’s team hasn’t won an NCAA Tournament game since 2004, when Jameer Nelson and Delonte West were his starting guards. UConn is a Top 10 team for free throw shooting percentage; always key in this ‘short favorite’ pointspread Read more



Tags: College Basketball Teddy Covers




College Basketball Handicapping: UNLV at full strength vs. Wyoming

03.13.2014     07:12 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Wyoming at UNLV -8.5

It looks like UNLV will be at full strength – or close to it – for this afternoon's Mountain West Tournament first round matchup vs. Wyoming. Roscoe Smith (11.0 ppg, concussion) may not start but is expected to play. Same deal with Bryce Dejean-Jones (13.4 ppg, suspension). Khem Bitch (11.8 ppg) hurt his hip against San Diego State and has been limited in practice but will play.





Tags: College Basketball UNLV Rebels Wyoming Cowboys




WCC Championship Betting Preview: BYU Cougars vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs

03.11.2014     08:04 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
West Coast Conference Championship
BYU vs. Gonzaga
6 pm PT, Las Vegas, Nev.
CRIS Opener:
Gonzaga -3.5 O/U 4
CRIS Current: Gonzaga -4 O/U 148
Rob Veno Power Rating: Gonzaga -3

Quick Take: BYU scored only six points the final 10 minutes of regulation against San Francisco but went on the win in overtime. Gonzaga dominated Saint Mary's, 70-54. The Zags have been to 16 straight WCC title games (11-5 SU). The home side won both meetings during the regular season. Interesting that BYU dominated the glass in both contests with a combined 74-57 edge including 27 offensive rebounds. This despite  the Zags allowing the lowest offensive rebounding rate in the  WCC.

Quotes: Gonzaga head coach Mark Few on establishing dominance in the paint...


"I think we got back to probably being a more physical team, a rebounding team," GU coach Mark

Read more



Tags: College Basketball BYU Cougars Gonzaga Bulldogs



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