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October

20

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NCAA Tournament Handicapping: Stat Profiles for St. Mary's/MTSU and Boise State/La Salle

03.19.2013     06:45 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I’m going to skip the two play-in games on the #16 seed rung because those teams are so obscure…and basically irrelevant for the week. Here are some notes on the other two play in games. St. Mary’s vs. Middle Tennessee will be played Tuesday night in Dayton, Boise State/LaSalle on Wednesday night.

Hybrid Estimates

St. Mary’s: +12.8 average margin in Big West, which has a Sagarin conference rating of 75.31

Middle Tennessee: +16.5 average margin in the Sun Belt, which has a Sagarin conference rating of 69.51

Middle Tennessee is +3.7 on the raw total, but St. Mary’s played in a conference that was +5.8 points better. So, that’s St. Mary’s by 2.1 points. The Vegas line as I write this is St. Mary’s. Pretty close there.

Boise State: +1.1 average margin in the Mountain West, which has a Sagarin rating of 80.71

LaSalle: +5.5 average margin in the Atlantic 10, which has a Sagarin rating of Read more


Tags: College Basketball Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders St. Mary's Gaels Boise State Broncos La Salle Explorers Stat Intelligence




NCAA Tournament Handicapping: Estimated Market Power Ratings

03.18.2013     08:08 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Had some time to throw down numbers after the first set of Vegas lines went up. These are based on early numbers, and could change over the next few days. If you’re new to the website, these are my estimates of how “the market” has its Power Ratings heading into the Big Dance. They’re based on the estimates we’ve been updating continually through the season, and the current numbers in Tuesday/Thursday/Friday action.

Note that the market loves Florida, Arizona, and Pittsburgh more than the polls or selection committee did…which has been true or several weeks. And, for you regulars, the ACC may be getting more respect in the market that I had been guessing in recent days based on the early prices for NC and NC State, and possibly the Mountain West too the way things are shading with some of those teams.

First, by seed.

1…Louisville 87, Indiana 87, Gonzaga 85, Kansas 84

2…Duke 86, Ohio State 84, Miami 83, Georgetown Read more


Tags: College Basketball Stat Intelligence




NCAA Tournament Handicapping: UNLV short favorites in rematch vs. California

03.18.2013     07:44 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
California vs. UNLV -3

The Mountain West Conference is well represented in this year's NCAA Tournament with five teams making the field. Of those five teams, four are currently favored in their first round matchups including UNLV (-3) vs. California (at San Jose). The Rebels won in Berkeley earlier this season, 76-75, and 1.5-point underdogs.


“Any time when you have a game like that where it was very close, I think the advantage goes to the loser of the first matchup,” said LVH Superbook Executive Director Jay Kornegay. “I think Cal will be a little more motivated to beat UNLV than the other way around. UNLV is going to have to overcome that.”






Tags: College Basketball UNLV Running Rebels California Golden Bears




NCAA Basketball Betting Recap: Syracuse disintegrates, Kansas and New Mexico cut down nets

03.17.2013     06:45 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

If you ever wondered by handicappers should pay attention to fatigue, the last 15 minutes of tonight’s Syracuse/Louisville game should have made it crystal clear. Syracuse hit a wall…a bit more than midway through their fourth game in four days. A 16-point lead evaporated in a finger snap. Another finger snap, and Louisville was up by that much!

Syracuse 45-29 in the first 25 minutes

Louisville 49-16 in the last 15 minutes

The treys stopped falling for Syracuse (the laws of math only let you tempt fate for so long), the legs stopped moving in their zone defense…which allowed Louisville to either pass for easy buckets or rebound misses for easy buckets. One team hit a wall just as the other finally found the right gear. Amazing to behold.

Louisville 78, Syracuse 61

2-Point Percentage: Syracuse 41%, Louisville 45%

3-Point Shooting: Syracuse 9/22, Louisville 6/19

Free Throws: Syracuse 12/26, Read more


Tags: College Basketball Syracuse Orange Louisville Cardinals Stat Intelligence




NFL player nabbed for cheating Vegas casino

03.15.2013     11:14 AM     Printer Friendly
The one where an NFL player gets busted for allegedly cheating at craps at a Las Vegas Casino.



Tags: Las Vegas




Bookmaker reminisces on big moneyline score from Big Dance upset

03.15.2013     06:55 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Story of a Las Vegas bookmaker who hit it big when in 2004 a bettor came in bet a hefty amount on No. 2 seed Gonzaga on the moneyline vs. No. 10 seed Nevada. The Zags were around a 9-point favorite and got blasted 91-72. Score one for the bookies.


It was the 2004 NCAA basketball tournament, and our man was back. We put moneylines on every game, even with the No. 1 seeds playing a No. 16. He was starting to get a little cocky, making parlays with some of the top-seeded teams. In the first round, he had bet us eight parlays at $100,000 each, and hit them all.






Tags: College Baskeball Las Vegas




Mountain West Tournament Betting Preview

03.12.2013     01:44 PM     Alatex Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Alatex Sports

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Mountain West Tournament Preview
 
The Mountain West Conference Tournament features nine teams, with five of them in position to earn an NCAA berth. As a result, this year’s tournament should be a wide open affair. The contenders include top seed New Mexico, No. 2 Colorado State, No. 3 (and host) UNLV, No. 4 San Diego State and No. 5 Boise State. The Aztecs have had the most success in the tournament in recent years with four straight championship game appearances and two titles including last year.
 
First Round Pick: Air Force
Air Force had a surprising 8-8 finish in the conference, just two games behind UNLV’s 10-6 mark. They also played UNLV very tough, beating the Rebels by 15 on their home court and falling in overtime here back in January. UNLV was 7-1 SU on its home court in conference play, but covered just twice and won by more than 10 just twice, against bottom feeders Nevada and Wyoming. They lost their last home game to Fresno State and also struggled to beat Boise State in their next to last game, winning by just four. Air Force did have some poor efforts away from home this year, but Read more


Tags: College Basketball Brent Crow




PAC-12 Tournament Betting Preview

03.12.2013     01:27 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
PAC-12 Tournament Preview

The PAC-12 received only one at-large bid from the tournament selection committee last year.  That was at least partially the result of the numerous upsets in the PAC-12 tournament, where No. 6 seed Colorado beat No. 4 seed Arizona 53-51 in the Final. This year, UCLA, Oregon and Arizona are “locks” to make the Big Dance, and both Cal and Colorado are in good shape to get a bid as well.  As a result, the PAC-12’s first tournament here at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas isn’t as crucial for many of the top seeds as it was last year.

The PAC-12 lacks elite teams, but they don’t have any true bottom feeders in the conference either.  Arizona spent most of the season as the highest ranked PAC-12 team in the polls, but the Wildcats slumped down the stretch, losing four of their last eight games, including three out of four away from home.  UCLA enters the postseason near the bottom of the top 25.  Oregon spent a good portion of the season ranked, but the Ducks’ 5-6 SU mark down the stretch has left them in the “others receiving votes” category as Read more


Tags: College Basketball Teddy Covers




WAC Tournament Betting Preview

03.11.2013     03:36 PM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
WAC Tournament Preview

The WAC Tournament will be held at the Orleans Arena in Las Vegas which is the same site as the WCC Tournament. It’ll be a 10-team field thanks to the additions of Denver, Seattle, UT-Arlington, UT-San Antonio, and Texas State. No. 1 seed Louisiana Tech was the class of this conference from start to finish but were exposed somewhat on a couple of very tough home courts, New Mexico State and Denver, to close out the regular season. The top six teams all receive byes to the quarterfinals – Louisiana Tech, Denver, New Mexico State, UTA, Utah State and Idaho. There will be two first round matchups on Tuesday with No. 7 Texas State vs. No. 10 Seattle and No. 8 San Jose State vs. No. 9 UTSA. On Thursday the 7-10 winner will play No. 2 Denver and the 8-9 winner will play No. 1 Louisiana Tech. Note that the off day on Wednesday due to the women's tournament may give the two lower seeded winners a slight boost.

First Round Pick: UT-San Antonio
Texas-San Antonio beating San Jose State would be a minor upset only based on seed. The Spartans have been a disaster since mid-January Read more


Tags: College Basketball Ian Cameron




West Coast Conference Tournament Betting Preview

03.06.2013     12:05 PM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
West Coast Conference Tournament Preview

Overview: The WCC is another mid-major conference that goes to great lengths in order to assure their top teams have the shortest route possible to the championship. No. 1 seed Gonzaga along with No. 2 St. Mary’s get to sit and watch until the semifinals which will take place on the fourth day of tourney action. Because every team in the nine team conference qualifies, there is a No. 8 vs. No. 9 play-in game between Portland and Loyola Marymount which kicks off the tournament later this evening. Portland defeated LMU twice this season (68-64 Jan 12 @ LMU and 69-60 Feb 7 at home). Loyola has led each of the two games by double digits either at halftime or into the second half. The Orleans Arena venue in Las Vegas has been hosting this tournament since 2009 and it provides a very slight fan advantage to BYU. Gonzaga and St. Mary’s have won 12 of the last 14 conference tournaments rotating the last four. Last season, top seed St. Mary’s closed as a +2.5 point underdog to the Zags and won in overtime 78-74. San Diego is the only other team to capture the crown since 1999 winning twice Read more


Tags: College Basketball Rob Veno



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