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College Football Handicapping: Estimated Power Ratings as of 9/24/2013

09.24.2013     12:02 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I think most of you reading this know the drill by now. What you see below is my estimate of how “the market” has college football teams rated at this point in the season. And, by “the market,” I mean the combination of oddsmakers and sharps (leaving out the often-misguided public as best as possible). These are based on the current pointspreads at writing time, allotting 3 points for home field advantage.

This isn’t how I personally rate the teams. It’s my estimate of “market Power Ratings” if they existed in a tangible form.

An early number came up in Las Vegas last week for a hypothetical matchup between Alabama and Oregon. That line was Alabama -3, which represents how oddsmakers would rate the game. What would sharps do once big limits were available on a game like that? My scale estimates that sharps would take Oregon. They seem to be betting Oregon hand over fist this year…and Alabama is struggling to play Read more



Tags: College Football Stat Intelligence




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: NFC News and Notes from Week 3

09.23.2013     07:43 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Welcome to Teddy’s unique look at the NFL. Teddy watches games all day on Sunday, typing furiously on his laptop while giving you the key info that the box scores and game recaps don’t necessarily have. This week, Teddy took a long, hard look at five NFC teams that have been major disappointments to start the year.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Doug Martin had 144 yards on the ground last week and the Bucs still only scored a single offensive touchdown and lost the game. Today, with Martin largely contained (longest carry 11 yards), the offense only managed a single field goal and lost the game. After leading the league in penalties through the first two games, the Bucs were only flagged four times here, but that’s about the only bright spot from this performance.

Injuries are becoming a huge story with this team. They came into this game missing three starters from opening day in their secondary, forced to start a safety who was on their practice squad last week. Their lone playmaker, WR Vincent Jackson left the game with bruised ribs. His counterpart on the other side, Mike Williams had a clear limp all afternoon. Pro bowl Read more



Tags: NFL Tampa Bay Buccaneers New York Giants San Francisco 49ers New York Giants St. Louis Rams Teddy Covers




Thursday Night Football Betting Recap: Six Turnovers doom Philadelphia Eagles

09.20.2013     06:52 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Three weeks into the Chip Kelly era with the Philadelphia Eagles…and we’ve seen one half of mostly scintillating stuff (coming against an opponent that may not have a pass defense), but then five halves that have reminded everyone why it’s so hard to win with fast break football at the professional level.

First Half of Game One: Philadelphia 26, Washington 7

Next 5 Halves Pro-Rated: Philadelphia 11, Opponents 16

That’s an extended run now that represents the equivalent of losing games 32-22 against 2.5 opponents that may not reach the postseason (though KC has a decent Wildcard shot after its 3-0 start).

The Eagles are 1-2, and apparently would be the fourth best team in the AFC West because they just lost home games to San Diego and Kansas City…and are way behind Denver in everyone’s Power Ratings. They do have moments where the Oregon-style attack is a thing of beauty. But, tonight saw:

*Michael Vick throw two Read more



Tags: NFL Philadelphia Eagles Kansas City Chiefs Stat Intelligence




College Football Betting: Alabama 3-point chalk vs. Oregon for BCS Championship

09.19.2013     07:49 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
According to Twitter, Las Vegas' Golden Nugget sportsbook posted Alabama -3 (-120) vs. Oregon should the two teams meet in the BCS National Championship. The Crimson Tide was -10 vs. Notre Dame in last year's tile game (42-14 win). The year before that they were -2.5 vs. LSU (21-0 win). The Ducks were 1-point chalk in their 22-19 BCS title game loss to Auburn in 2010.




Tags: College Football Alabama Crimson Tide SEC Oregon Ducks PAC-12




NFL Handicapping: Estimated Market Power Ratings - Week 3

09.19.2013     07:27 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Wow…we really have a muddy middle this week…with a lot of question marks as to where teams really stack up in the 77-81 section of our scale…and arguably in the 74-82 section. I mean…you know about where they stand. But, trying to pin down 77’s and 78’s is really tough given the Wednesday afternoon lines because:

*A few teams who were supposed to be 78-81ish are off to poor starts

*A few teams who were supposed to be 71-74ish are off to strong starts against expectations

*Some teams who aren’t covering seem to be getting MORE respect (St. Louis)

*Some teams getting rocked aren’t dropping like rocks (Washington)

Let me run the numbers…then I’ll talk about many specific games where the couplet could arguably go a touch higher or lower depending on how you’ve evaluated performance so far. If you’re new to the site…

*These are an estimate of Read more



Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




NFL Handicpaping: Week 2 Betting and Statistical Recap

09.16.2013     07:14 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Let’s run the numbers…

(If you’re new to the site, “Drive Points” are those scored on drives of 60 yards or more. “Stat Score” is an estimate of what the final score should have been based only on rushing and passing yardage. The formula for that is 2 times rushing yardage…plus passing yardage…times 0.67…divided by 15. Sloppiness is a quickfire stat to measure execution…the formula is 5 times giveaways plus the number of incomplete passes…lower is better because you want to avoid sloppiness)

San Diego 33 (+7.5), Philadelphia 30

S-Diego: 539 yards, 6.8 per-play, 2 turnovers, 67% third downs

Philadel: 511 yards, 8.7 per-play, 1 turnovers, 45% third downs

(Whoever had the ball last was going to win, because both offenses were getting enough YPP at will to move the ball into scoring position. First glaring sign of Philly’s defensive weaknesses this Read more



Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




College Football Betting: Week 3 Injury Report

09.11.2013     11:59 AM     Brian Edwards     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Brian Edwards

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Louisiana Tech sophomore running back Kenneth Dixon enjoyed a banner freshman campaign, rushing for 1,194 yards and 27 touchdowns while averaging 6.0 yards per carry. Dixon sustained a knee injury in last week’s 27-14 win over Lamar and he’s questionable Thursday night vs. Tulane. Even if Dixon can’t go, I don’t know that bettors should downgrade Tech’s offense. Before Dixon became the starter last season, fellow freshman Tevin King started three games and rushed for 369 yards and five TDs. King, who averaged 8.0 ypc before suffering a season-ending injury, replaced Dixon when he went down last week. He responded by exploding for 182 yard rushing on 20 carries. As of early Wednesday, most books had the Bulldogs favored by -7.5 over the Green Wave.

TCU senior quarterback Casey Pachall is out until at least late October with a forearm injury. Therefore, sophomore signal caller Trevone Boykin will get the starting nod Thursday night at Texas Tech. Boykin started nine games as a redshirt freshman in 2012. He threw for 2,054 yards with a 15/10 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Boykin also rushed for 417 yards and three TDs. In relief of Pachall in Read more



Tags: College Football Brian Edwards




College Football Handicapping: Estimated Market Power Ratings Week 3

09.11.2013     07:14 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I think we’re getting closer to capturing the market. Not quite there yet. There were fewer head scratchers this week when comparing the transitions from last week.

It may be a mess for awhile in the 45-65 range because of volatility. A 55 may play like a 48 against quality but a 57 against other mid-50 teams. College sports are always messy because of the sheer volume of teams, and the fact that kids are inconsistent from week to week.

If you’re new to the site, these aren’t my “personal” ratings for all the teams. I’m not following college football nearly closely enough to have any real sense of probably the bottom 80 yet. This is my guess at how the market has the teams rated. I create “couplets” each week that match the Vegas spread (allotting 3 points for home field advantage), then I try to figure out where that couplet goes within the big scale. Over a few weeks, it’s not hard to hone in on a fairly good Read more



Tags: College Football Stat Intelligence




College Football Betting: Alabama currently -7.5 over Texas A&M

09.09.2013     12:26 PM     Printer Friendly
Alabama -7.5 at Texas A&M -O/U 63

We’ve seen some early line movement on the much anticipated matchup between Texas A&M and Alabama. CRIS opened the Crimson Tide at -7 and it got as high as -8.5 before settling in at -7.5 offshore. Note that Las Vegas' Coasts and Stations are currently dealing Alabama -9. Of course the Aggies won last year's meeting in Tuscaloosa, 29-24, as 13.5-point underdogs. The total in that game was 54.5 – significantly lower than this year's current market number of 63. We went back more than a decade and couldn't find an Alabama total lined north of 60.




Tags: College Football Alabama Crimson Tide Texas A&M Aggies SEC




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: NFC News and Notes from Week 1

09.09.2013     07:30 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Welcome to Teddy’s unique look at the NFL. Teddy watches games all day on Sunday, typing furiously on his laptop while giving you the key info that the box scores and game recaps don’t necessarily have. This week: NFC Tidbits from Week 1.

Chicago Bears – Sure, the Bears didn't make the playoffs last year, but they won ten games and were one of the league's better teams. This defense can still make plenty of big plays, as evidenced by Charles Tillman's huge game and their complete domination against the run here. Jay Cutler did a great job finding open receivers on third and long. He connected on a pair of third and longs into very tight windows on Chicago's first touchdown drive. The revamped offensive line didn't do much for run blocking, but they gave Cutler all the time he needed all afternoon.

Cutler can still scramble out of pressure and his mobility created several opportunities that wouldn't have been there otherwise. But Cutler's propensity for making mistakes at crucial times was on display here, a horrible pass on first down as the Bears were driving in the fourth quarter. However, he made the most of his next Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Chicago Bears Minnesota Vikings San Francisco 49ers Arizona Cardinals New Orleans Saints



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