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College Football Line Moves: Bettors pound Florida against pesky Vanderbilt
11.02.2011 09:19 AM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
Vanderbilt
at
Florida
-13.5 O/U 44.5
The betting markets have been all over Florida for its home tilt against Vanderbilt this weekend. CRIS opened the Gators -9.5 but the line has shot up to -13.5 (-14 at Pinnacle). Oddsmakers have made a sizable adjustment on the Commodores who closed as a 13.5-point home underdog against Georgia. The following week they crushed Army as an 11.5-point favorite and then nearly upset Arkansas as an 8-point underdog. Florida beat Vanderbilt 55-14 as 14-point favorites in last year's meeting in Nashville but we’re now dealing with two completely different teams. The Gators (4-4) are on a 0-4 SU/ATS run and in danger of not making the postseason. The Commodores (4-4) are closing in on a bowl berth with winnable games against Kentucky, Tennessee and Wake Forest remaining. The secret to Vandy's success has been a surprisingly effective defense. They rank a respectable sixth in the SEC in yards per game allowed (331.9). The offense has
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Tags:
College Football
Florida Gators
Vanderbilt Commodores
SEC
Andrew Lange
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Football Gambling Preview: Northern Illinois Huskies at Toledo Rockets
11.01.2011 07:17 AM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
Northern Illinois
at
Toledo
-8.5 O/U 67
Great matchup in the MAC tonight with Northern Illinois traveling to the Glass Bowl to take on Toledo. The Rockets (4-0) sit atop the East Division standings while the Huskies (3-1) trail by one game. Both teams enter off of a bye week. NIU dominated last year's matchup with a 65-30 win. There were 51 points scored in the third quarter.
Statistically, Northern Illinois leads the MAC at 489 ypg of offense in league play. Toledo ranks fourth at 450 ypg. The Rockets are much more sound on the defensive side of the football, holding MAC foes to 363 ypg while NIU ranks second to last as 432 ypg. The Rockets are clearly more respected in the betting markets (5-3 ATS) having played Ohio State tough, "losing" to Syracuse on a bogus call, and crushing a strong Temple team. NIU meanwhile doesn't have a marquee performance. They lost at Kansas which obviously doesn't look good, were blown out at Wisconsin 49-7, and
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Tags:
College Football
Northern Illinois Huskies
Toledo Rockets
MAC
Andrew Lange
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NCAA Football Betting Tips: Update on teams without a bye week
10.31.2011 07:06 AM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
Revisiting the
five teams
I mentioned prior to the college football season that would be forced to go "bye week less" for the entire campaign. All five of our "cases" are well below average so it is difficult to decipher how much of an impact not having a bye week has had – bad teams are often bad teams and unable to cash in on rested-and-ready opportunities. Still, at 4-11 ATS combined their last three games, all five of these teams could certainly use a break – NC State and Colorado ravaged by injuries – as they head down the stretch. Also note that a few of these teams will be playing "short rest" games upcoming.
NC State
(Overall: 4-4 SU, 2-6 ATS, Last 3: 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS)
Remaining: vs. North Carolina, at Boston College, vs. Clemson, vs. Maryland
Central Michigan
(Overall: 3-6 SU, 1-8 ATS, Last 3: 1-2 SU, 0-3
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NC State Wolfpack
Central Michigan Chippewas
UAB Blazers
Tulane Green Wave
Colorado Buffaloes
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College Football Gambling Preview: USC Trojans at California Golden Bears
10.12.2011 07:43 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
USC
-3 at
California
(Thursday, ESPN, 6 pm PT)
CRIS Opening Line:
USC -4 O/U 56
CRIS Current Line:
USC -3 O/U 58
Rob Veno Power Rating:
USC -2
Andrew Lange’s Betting Take:
In looking over this game, I see a lot of factors that favor the road side. For starters, using our
ACCU-Stat matchups
, you’ll notice that USC has nearly a one yard advantage in three different categories – including stopping the run which is the most critical of the four. And the stats are “real” as both teams have played comparable schedules and rank near one another in terms of strength of schedule (Sagarin: Cal 50th, USC 57th). Defensively, I think USC has the edge, even though they allowed some big scores the last two weeks. They jumped out to a 34-12 lead over Arizona
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PAC-12
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College Football Betting: Georgia in potential letdown spot vs. Vanderbilt
10.11.2011 02:14 PM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Georgia
-11 at
Vanderbilt
O/U 41
Nearly left for dead after an 0-2 start, Georgia has rebounded in a big way with four straight wins and currently sits tied atop the SEC East standings at 3-1. The story for the Bulldogs has been
defense
as the unit ranks 12th in rushing (85.8 ypg), 11th in passing (174.7) and sixth in total defense (260.5 ypg).
Based on how Vanderbilt looked the last two weeks (three points in two games), the Bulldogs should have no trouble getting the job done in Nashville. However, I can't help but think this is a potentially dangerous situation for the double-digit favorite. Back-to-back road games can be tough on anyone and with a bye week upcoming (followed by a rivalry tilt vs. Florida), this could be a flat spot. Not to mention, a game against Vanderbilt doesn't spark a lot of excitement, especially
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Vanderbilt Commodores
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College Football Handicapping: Where the money is headed Week 7
10.10.2011 12:16 PM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
A lot of movement on the college football board today as we take a look at what the betting markets are up to.
Florida State
at
Duke
CRIS Opener: Florida State -9.5
CRIS Current: Florida State -13
I remember hearing about how Florida State's defense was supposed to be Alabama-like this season. Then why did they allow 35 points in back-to-back weeks? I gave them somewhat of a pass at Clemson because let's face it, the Tigers are this year's version of Auburn. But allowing 391 yards at 6.5 ypp to Wake Forest? The same Wake Forest squad you shutout and held to 185 yards last season? FSU's five turnovers obviously helped Wake's cause, but this doesn't look like the type of team that can just flip a switch and win by margin on the road off a bad performance. The Seminoles have faced a great team (Oklahoma), good team (Clemson), average team (Wake Forest), and two bottom feeders (UL-Monroe and Charleston Southern). They are 2-3 SU/ATS. I'll let
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College Football ATS Preview: Ohio State Buckeyes at Nebraska Cornhuskers
10.05.2011 01:44 PM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Ohio State
at
Nebraska
(5 pm PT, ABC)
CRIS Opening Line:
Nebraska -10 O/U 46
CRIS Current Line:
Nebraska -11 O/U 44
Rob Veno Power Rating:
Nebraska -4.5
Teddy Covers Power Rating:
Nebraska -8
Andrew Lange’s Betting Take:
I could spend hours dissecting just how bad these two teams looked last week as both have serious question marks moving forward. Nebraska's defense once again revealed it’s nowhere near what we saw the previous two seasons. Ohio State meanwhile has been exposed at nearly every position that doesn't feature on original starter due to various suspensions, injuries and departures.
As of now, Ohio State's offense is much closer to Wyoming and Chattanooga than Fresno, Washington and Wisconsin (Nebraska’s first five opponents). The common theme is that with a solid quarterback, moving
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College Football Gambling: Breaking down early week line moves
10.03.2011 01:06 PM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
A lot of movement on the college football board today as we take a look at what the betting markets are up to.
Western Kentucky
at
Middle Tennessee State
CRIS Opener: MTSU -8
CRIS Current: MTSU -10
Middle got a monster scare against Memphis on Saturday in a 38-31 win. The Blue Raiders needed a touchdown with 20 seconds left to secure the win. Western Kentucky was on the other side of a close one as Arkansas State netted the go-ahead touchdown with 55 seconds left in a 26-22 win. Regardless of the in-game matchups, Sun Belt double-digit favorites have been moneyburners the past two seasons which says Hilltoppers or pass.
Iowa
at
Penn State
CRIS Opener: Penn State -1.5
CRIS Current: Penn State -3
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College Football Week 5 Betting News and Notes Recap
10.03.2011 11:14 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Northern Illinois allowed 265 points last season but has already given up 198. The Huskies are surrendering nearly 500 ypg of offense. Four of their five games have gone over the total.
Stanford, Wisconsin, Rutgers, Western Michigan and Georgia Tech are all perfect against the spread (a few pushes depending on what line you go with). NC State and Penn State have yet to cover a game.
Texas A&M outscored Oklahoma State and Arkansas by a combined tally of 55-20 in the first half. In the second half of those two games, the Aggies were outscored 52-12.
Ohio State posted 178 yards and 2.8 yards per play in its 10-7 home loss to Michigan State. The Buckeyes punted 10 times.
Boise State has allowed two consecutive backdoor covers as Tulsa scored a late touchdown and Nevada chipped in 10 fourth quarter points. The Broncos outgained both teams by 314 yards.
Shooting oneself in the foot. Notre Dame is 3-of-7 field goals, -9 in turnover margin and 12-of-19, 63% inside the red zone.
With a 27-17 lead in the fourth quarter, Colorado allowed Washington State to go 12 plays and 167 yards combined on its last two touchdown
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College Football Betting Preview: Nebraska Cornhuskers at Wisconsin Badgers
09.28.2011 01:19 PM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Nebraska
at
Wisconsin
(5 pm – ABC)
CRIS Opening Line:
Wisconsin -8 O/U 57.5
CRIS Current Line:
Wisconsin -9.5 O/U 57
Rob Veno Power Rating:
Wisconsin -11
Teddy Covers Power Rating:
Wisconsin -11.5
Andrew Lange’s Betting Take:
This is a prime example of how much the perception of college football teams can change through the course of a season – and in this case a little over three months. Back in mid-June, the Golden Nugget released its Game of the Year lines and priced Wisconsin as a 2.5-point favorite. A week later, Russell Wilson decided to take his act to Madison and UW’s stock was immediately on the rise. Once the season started, Wilson unquestionably looked the part, Wisconsin was in constant name-the-score mode, and oddsmakers could have hung a -14 on this game and I wouldn’t have been
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Wisconsin Badgers
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