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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: College Football Against The Spread Outliers

08.25.2014     07:23 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
College football season kicks off on Thursday Night. By Labor Day, we’ll have seen 78 teams play other FBS opponents and another 46 teams play against FCS foes, available for betting at many top books on the Extra Games board. How important are those Week 1 results when we project forward? What about Week 2 and Week 3? Read on to find out!

Twenty-four college football teams were pointspread outliers last year. Twelve squads hit 70% or better ATS. Twelve more squads hit 30% or worse for the full season. This falls within recent historical patterns – in every recent season, 20-25% of the teams are strong bet-on or bet against squads. If we broaden the base to 67% ATS wins or losses for the full season, it’s not unusual to see one third or more of the teams in college football fall into bet-on or bet-against categories.

In 2013, Auburn, Missouri, Florida State, Duke, Navy, North Texas, Houston, Florida Atlantic and Wisconsin all finished the season hitting 75% ATS or better, with Bowling Green, Colorado State, Georgia State right behind. And that list doesn’t even include significant moneymakers (9-4 ATS) like Baylor, UCLA, Minnesota, Tulane, Read more

Tags: College Football Teddy Covers

NFL Preseason Handicapping: Seattle starters to play into third quarter vs. Chicago

08.22.2014     12:13 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Chicago at Seattle -7 O/U 45

The Seattle Seahawks look to be all business for tonight's preseason game vs. Chicago. Pete Carroll said the starters will play into the third quarter. Tarvaris Jackson will follow Russell Wilson and if time permits, Terrell Pryor will take some snaps. Seattle is 2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS in the third game of the preseason under Carroll. The Seahawks opened -6.5 but were quickly bet to -7 with a few Las Vegas sportsbooks currently dealing -7.5.

Tags: NFL Seattle Seahawks Chicago Bears

Don't miss Sportsmemo Handicapper Erin Rynning at Friday's SuperContest seminar

08.20.2014     02:19 PM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
For those of you in the Las Vegas area, be sure to check out Sportsmemo Handicapper and professional bettor Erin Rynning a Friday's Westgate SuperContest Seminar. ER will be on the AFC panel from 7:05-7:55 pm PT.

Tags: NFL Erin Rynning

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Recapping NFL Preseason Week 2

08.18.2014     09:49 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Last week, I wrote about how after a significant five year run of Overs in the preseason, Week 1 of the 2014 preseason brought a 13-4 mark to the Under.  So what happened in Week 2? With 15 games in the books as I write this on Monday morning, Overs have gone 9-6, cashing at a 60% clip throughout the course of the weekend.  That Week 1 run of Unders certainly didn’t last very long.

What’s behind the high scoring affairs from Week 2?  Penalties, penalties and more penalties; with flags up more than 50% from last year through the first two weeks of August.  And the biggest increases in penalties have come via the rule changes tied to pass defense.  Defensive holding, illegal contact and pass interference calls galore have become the new norm. 

The rule changes have most assuredly affected the totals markets for Week 1 of the regular season.  Historically, Week 1 is the lowest scoring week of the first three months of the season (when weather really starts to Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

CG Technology upgrades sports betting app

08.14.2014     06:32 AM     Printer Friendly
CG Technology (Cantor Gaming) recently upgraded is sports betting app. The new version will allow users to place future, prop, and parlay bets.

Tags: Las Vegas

MLB Handicapper Free Play: Oakland A's at Kansas City Royals

08.13.2014     11:41 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Oakland (Kazmir) -110 at Kansas City (Vargas) O/U 7
Recommendation: Oakland

When healthy, Jason Vargas has proven himself to be an above average starter at the major league level.  But Vargas is NOT healthy right now, still recovering from an emergency appendectomy that cost him a full month’s worth of playing time.  Kansas City Manager Ned Yost: “He's just still not quite sharp after his surgery.”

Vargas has been lit up in both post-appendectomy starts: 15 hits and nine runs allowed in 9.1 innings of work.   The A’s bashed him for seven runs less than two weeks ago, and Oakland is coming off a 20 hit, 11 run outburst last night; the third time in five games they’ve scored six runs or more.   Vargas’s six losses to Oakland since the start of 2011 is his most defeats against any team during that span. A’s sluggers Coco Crisp, Jed Lowrie (questionable tonight) and Brandon Moss all have good track records Read more

Tags: MLB Oakland A's Kansas City Royals Teddy Covers

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Recapping NFL Preseason Week 1

08.11.2014     12:46 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
From 2008 through 2013, Overs ruled the roost when it came to betting preseason football, with more Overs than Unders cashing in every single season.  The average points scored in August NFL games increased every year during that span, from 35.3 points per game in 2008 up to 41.2 points per game last year; a preseason that saw Overs cash at nearly a 60% clip. 

An increase of six points per game over a five year span is absolutely going to attract some betting market attention.  The quants who rule the markets aren’t going to let that type of information slip by without a significant reaction!

In particular, the lowest totals have been the best Over bets during this run of relatively high scoring affairs.  Totals of 36.5 or less have been enormous profit makers for Over bettors.  From 2009 through 2013, games totaled at 36.5 or less went Over at a 93-57 (62%) clip.  Games totaled at 37 or higher were essentially split 50-50 between Over cashes and Under cashes – all the profits came from betting lower totals Over.

So what happened in Week 1 this year?  A huge run of Unders!  Including the Hall of Fame Read more

Tags: NFL Teddy Covers

Handicapper Paul Stone joins Sportsmemo

08.11.2014     10:01 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Sportsmemo is pleased to announce the addition of handicapper Paul Stone. Stone, a native of Texas, has over 20 years of experience as a bettor and handicapper. He specializes in college football and college basketball as well as PGA and WNBA. Some of Stone’s accomplishments include winning the 2011 Leroy’s College Football Challenge as well as last year’s Golden Nugget Friday Football Showdown. He’s also been a contributing writer for the Las Vegas-Review Journal and ESPN Insider.

You can read Paul’s full bio here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter @paulstonesports.

You can listen to Paul’s Monday podcast segment here.  Paul talked about his pedigree and provided a free college football season over/under win recommendation.

On Tuesday, Paul will release a CFB Season O/U Wins report. The package will cost only $99 and include 6-7 recommendations including written Read more

Tags: Paul Stone

Online gambling needs interest from more states

08.08.2014     06:34 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
By now you've heard of the ridiculous Restoration of America's Wire Act in which old goof Sheldon Adelson and his political minions are trying to completely shut down online gambling. That includes the states that just made it legal like Nevada and New Jersey. It's not like $290,000 is a lot of money to Adelson, but despite the fact that there is practically zero chance the Wire Act will be passed, that is how much money was thrown into the anti-online gambling cause during the second quarter. But even though Adelson's attempt to shut down everything will fall short, his efforts are certainly hampering those try to expand online gambling. One gambling analyst noted that in order for online gambling to go national, more states need to show serious interest.

“If more and more states would enact online gaming at the state level, I think at some point there would be more interest for a federal bill,” he said.

“The FBI has warned it will open the door to money laundering and other criminal activity,”

Read more

Tags: Las Vegas

NFL Handicapping: Week 1 Preseason lines now available

08.01.2014     08:29 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
A majority of offshore and Las Vegas sportsbooks are now offering lines for Week 1 of the NFL Preseason. Action gets underway on Sunday with the Giants taking on the Bills in the Hall of Fame game (Canton, Ohio). It is one of the only Week 1 games that has seen much of any market movement.. The Bills opened -1.5 but have been bet up to as high as -3. As with most preseason games, information is paramount and we can expect more line movement in the coming days as teams divulge their quarterback rotations and overall game plans.

Tags: NFL New York Giants Buffalo Bills


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