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Teddy Covers' Wiseguy Report: Pre- and Post-Bye Week Teams
10.29.2012 11:45 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Last week, I wrote about the three strongest prevailing angles for the 2012 NFL season. Let me update the numbers from a week ago.
NFC Underdogs – any underdog in any game – have gone 37-12-2 ATS this season. But that angle has now suffered back-to-back losing weeks, looking like it’s come and gone as the market has adjusted to reflect the NFC’s dominance – just 3-5 ATS in Week 8 after a 2-3-1 ATS mark in Week 7.
Teams heading into the bye week are now 1-14 ATS, discounting the games where one pre-bye team faced off against another. The Jets were the only team to fall into this category on Sunday, with the 49ers pending on Monday Night. This trend is still very live; 0-3 ATS over the past two weeks.
And teams coming out of the bye are on a 9-5 ATS streak; again discounting the games where one post-bye team faced another. But that trend seems to e flat lining: 2-2 ATS in Week 7 followed by another 2-2 ATS performance in Week 8.
What’s really going on with these pre-bye or post-bye squads? For the second straight week, I focused my attention on five teams in one of these two roles.
Miami
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Tags:
NFL
Atlanta Falcons
New York Jets
New England Patriots
Miami Dolphins
Philadelphia Eagles
Teddy Covers
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College Football ATS Analysis: Betting markets in love withTexas A&M Aggies
10.29.2012 08:06 AM
Printer Friendly
Texas A&M
-7 at
Mississippi State
Texas A&M should change its nickname to The Steam based on how much support they've received from the betting markets of late. Last week, the Aggies opened -9 at Auburn and were bet as high as -16.5 before closing -14. They could have closed -41.5 and still covered against the Tigers (63-21). This week, more of the same for A&M's trip to Mississippi State. A&M opened -3.5 at CRIS (-2.5 at BetOnline) and is now -7 across the board.
Tags:
College Football
Texas A&M Aggies
Mississippi State Bulldogs
SEC
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College Football Betting: Week 9 2nd Half kickoff list
10.27.2012 08:35 AM
Printer Friendly
We'll be updating the list throughout the day to help you with your second half wagers.
2012 College Football Week 9 2nd half Kickoff List
Game #
Away Team
Home Team
Receive 2nd Half Kick
111
Navy
East Carolina
Navy
113
Massachusetts
Vanderbilt
Massachusetts
115
Ohio
Miami (OH)
Ohio
117
Ball State
Army
Army
119
Akron
Central Michigan
Akron
121
Eastern Michigan
Bowling Green
Eastern Michigan
123
Northern Illinois
Western Michigan
Western Michigan
125
Temple
Pittsburgh
Temple
127
Indiana
Illinois
Illinois
129
Purdue
Minnesota
Purdue
131
Iowa
Northwestern
Iowa
133
Duke
Florida State
Florida State
135
Maryland
Boston College
Boston College
137
Mississippi State
Alabama
Mississippi State
139
Utah State
UTSA
Utah State
141
Hawaii
Colorado State
Colorado State
143
Baylor
Iowa State
Iowa State
145
Texas A&M
Auburn
Auburn
147
California
Utah
Utah
149
Texas
Kansas
Texas
151
Michigan State
Wisconsin
Wisconsin
153
Colorado
Oregon
Colorado
155
NC State
North Carolina
NC State
157
Boise State
Wyoming
Boise State
159
UTEP
Houston
Houston
161
BYU
Georgia Tech
Georgia Tech
163
Florida
Georgia
Georgia
165
Kentucky
Missouri
Missouri
167
UCLA
Arizona State
UCLA
169
USC
Arizona
Arizona
171
Kent State
Rutgers
Kent State
173
Texas State
San Jose State
Texas State
175
Washington State
Stanford
Stanford
177
Ohio State
Penn State
Penn State
179
Oregon State
Washington
Oregon State
181
Texas Tech
Kansas State
Kansas State
183
Syracuse
South Florida
Syracuse
185
TCU
Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State
187
Central Florida
Marshall
Central Florida
189
Toledo
Buffalo
Toledo
191
Tennessee
South Carolina
South Carolina
193
Mississippi
Arkansas
Mississippi
195
Louisiana Tech
New Mexico State
Louisiana Tech
197
Notre Dame
Oklahoma
Notre Dame
199
UAB
Tulane
Tulane
201
Memphis
SMU
Memphis
203
Southern Miss
Rice
Southern Miss
205
Michigan
Nebraska
Nebraska
207
UNLV
San Diego State
UNLV
209
Fresno State
New Mexico
Fresno State
211
South Alabama
Louisiana-Monroe
South Alabama
213
Western Kentucky
Florida International
Western Kentucky
215
North Texas
Middle Tennessee
Middle Tennessee
217
Troy
Florida Atlantic
Florida Atlantic
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College Football
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College Football Gambling Preview: Mississippi State Bulldogs at Alabama Crimson Tide
10.26.2012 07:37 AM
Alatex Sports
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Submitted by Alatex Sports
Mississippi State
at
Alabama
Brent Crow's Recommendation:
Over
Saturday, 5:30 pm PT - ESPN
CRIS Opener:
Alabama -23.5 O/U 47.5
CRIS Current:
Alabama -24 O/U 46.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating:
Alabama -24
We have yet another huge SEC matchup this week, with top-ranked Alabama hosting the unbeaten Mississippi State Bulldogs. Unlike the last few weeks, where we saw short-lined matchups between Florida- LSU, South Carolina-LSU, Florida-South Carolina, Alabama is laying a hefty -24. Clearly, Mississippi State is not thought of as a “real” contender in the SEC despite its unblemished record. This biggest reason for this is their lack of quality wins due to a fairly soft schedle. The Bulldogs’ most impressive win came at home against Tennessee – and Alabama just dismantled the Vols in Knoxville, 44-13, last week.
Mississippi State’s other victims include Auburn
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College Football
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Alabama Crimson Tide
SEC
Brent Crow
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NFL Gambling Preview: New England Patriots vs. St. Louis Rams
10.25.2012 03:11 PM
Alf Musketa
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Submitted by Alf Musketa
New England
vs.
St. Louis
Alf Musekta's Recommendation:
New England
Sunday, 10 am PT - CBS (London, England)
CRIS Opener:
New England -6.5 O/U 46.5
CRIS Current:
New England -7 O/U 46.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating:
New England -10
This game is being played at Wembley Stadium, in London, England and yes they have a retractable roof. St. Louis originally agreed to a three-year deal from 2012 -14 that they were going to compete in the NFL's U.K. series. The owner of the Rams is Stan Kroenke who also owns local soccer club Arsenal of the English Premier League and the agreement was a natural fit. However, the Rams administration staff and coaching staff convinced their owner that going across the pond every season was not a great idea physically and financially. Thus, the English fans and tabloids have run with this story that the Rams want no part in playing in their country. The Rams are technically the home team in
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NFL
New England Patriots
St. Louis Rams
Alf Musketa
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College Football Betting Preview: Michigan Wolverines at Nebraska Cornhuskers
10.24.2012 02:41 PM
Rob Veno
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Submitted by Rob Veno
Michigan
at
Nebraska
Rob Veno's Recommendation:
Nebraska
Saturday, 5 pm PT - ESPN2
CRIS Opener:
Nebraska -1 O/U 56
CRIS Current:
Nebraska -2 O/U 57.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating:
Nebraska pk
The winner of this game takes leadership of not only the Legends Division, but also control of a spot in the Big Ten Conference Championship game. With that at stake, expect fully focused efforts from each side. Each is off of a fourth quarter come-from-behind win last week but Nebraska failed to cover the pointspread for the third consecutive game.
Defense has been a sore spot for the Cornhuskers who have allowed 154 points in their four games versus BCS teams (38.5 ppg per contest). In Big Ten play, they’ve given up 27 points or more in every game but what’s interesting is that NU has only twice this season given up more than 4.3 yards per play. That number indicates the defense has been
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College Football
Michigan Wolverines
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Big Ten
Rob Veno
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Sports Betting Podcast 10-24-2012 with Handicappers Brent Crow and Erin Rynning
10.24.2012 10:14 AM
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Wednesday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicappers Brent Crow and Erin Rynning. Brent talked SEC football and Erin broke down the Big Ten.
Today's segments
Full Show
Brent Crow - SEC Conference
Erin Rynning - Big Ten Conference
To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our
Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage
.
ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.
Tags:
College Football
Brent Crow
Erin Rynning
SEC
Big Ten
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College Football Gambling Update: Bettors continue to pound Texas A&M Aggies
10.24.2012 08:13 AM
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UPDATE
Texas A&M
-15 at
Auburn
O/U 52.5
Texas A&M continues to get bet like the outcome of Saturday's game at Auburn has already been determined. We mentioned yesterday that the Aggies opened -9 and were quickly bet up to -14. Yesterday, all of the -14's got taken out with A&M is now as high as -15.5. For the season, betting the opening number (in this case, Texas A&M -9) on games that moved three points or more is a very positive profile (48-28, 63% ATS). Betting the closing line of those games (trying to chase steam) is not nearly as profitable (38-35-3, 52% ATS).
As for the matchup, Auburn defensive coordinator has concerns about
Texas A&M's up-tempo offense
. The Tigers haven't fared well in games against fast-paced squads (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS vs. Clemson, UL-Monroe and Ole Miss).
"I think the biggest concern is tempo," VanGorder said after
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Texas A&M Aggies
Auburn Tigers
SEC
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NFL Betting News and Notes Week 7
10.23.2012 12:44 PM
ICC
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Submitted by ICC
If the Washington Redskins learned anything after Sunday’s loss to the New York Giants, it would be not to allow Eli Manning the chance to have the football with his team trailing by one score in the final minutes. Robert Griffin III had a miraculous scramble play on a fourth down to keep a late fourth quarter drive alive en route to a terrific touchdown throw to Santana Moss which gave the Redskins a brief lead. It didn’t last long as Manning hit Victor Cruz for a 73-yard touchdown pass to give the Giants the win in a back and forth 27-23 affair. Despite the straight up win for New York, Washington got the ATS win and continue to cash tickets for their backers against their NFC East rivals. Washington is now 4-0 ATS against the G-Men dating back to January 2011.
I don’t think the term “right side winner” can be any more accurate than it was with the Houston Texans on Sunday. It was a dominant 43-13 win and easy 6.5-point home chalk cover for the Texans in which they outgained the Baltimore Ravens 420-176, had a huge 27-12 edge in first downs, and a +2 TO margin. Quarterback Joe Flacco and the Baltimore no-huddle offense continues to
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NFL
Ian Cameron
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Handicapper Alf Musketa's NFL and NCAAF Line Moves Report 10/23/2012
10.23.2012 08:24 AM
Alf Musketa
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Submitted by Alf Musketa
Clemson at Wake Forest
Clemson opened -14 now -12.5
Clemson made short work of Virginia Tech last week winning 38-17 and for some reason they were bet down from -9 to -7 – it seems that the sharp handicappers are wagering against the Tigers again here due to the home team advantages and I'll explain why. First, Thursday night home games are usually sold out; students do not miss this game on campus. I cannot recall when or if Wake Forest had a Thursday night contest, regardless, the work week after a Saturday game to prepare for a Thursday night game is basically two days, if you travel you might only get one good practice. Clemson is giving up 32 points per game so far in the ACC, while Wake Forest is not a high scoring team, they should put up some good numbers. I agree with the move.
Duke at Florida State
Florida State opened -25, now -27.5, -28
Not a huge move but a predictable one and going higher. Duke just became bowl eligible with a big win against arch rival North Carolina. The market players surely got a piece of this game. With Florida State, Clemson, Georgia Tech and Miami
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NFL
College Football
Alf Musketa
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