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MLB Handicapper Free Play: Cleveland Indians at San Francisco Giants
06.26.2011 07:43 AM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
Cleveland (Carmona) at San Francisco (Bumgarner) -135 O/U 7
Recommendation: Under
We focused in on the under for Friday's Cleveland-San Francisco matchup and ended up scoring a disappointing push as the Tribe allowed three unearned runs in a 4-3 loss. The philosophy was simple; the Giants are in an offensive slump and the Indians aren't built to hit lefties. Jonathan Sanchez was his normal self in allowing two hits, six walks and six strikeouts in 4.2 innings. Today, we get another lefty in Madison Bumgarner who command-wise is much more trustworthy. Bumgarner made headlines with an 8 ER, 0.1 IP performance last time out against Minnesota. Prior to that he was a quality start machine with 10 straight – he lowered his ERA from 7.79 to 3.21. I expect him to bounce back in a big way today. Cleveland's Fausto Carmona has been a disaster for much of the season and just got finished with a tough stretch of opponents; Colorado, Detroit, NY Yankees, Texas, Toronto and Boston. According to reports,
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Cleveland Indians
Fausto Carmona
San Francisco Giants
Madison Bumgarner
Andrew Lange
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MLB Handicapper Free Play: Cleveland Indians at San Francisco Giants
06.24.2011 07:37 AM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
Cleveland (Carrasco) at San Francisco (Sanchez) -122 O/U 7
Recommendation: Under
The Cleveland Indians are going to be at a disadvantage tonight in San Francisco against lefty Jonathan Sanchez. A lot of key bats for the Tribe come from the left side and show dramatic decline against southpaws (Brantley .234 BA/.574 OPS; Choo .239/.593; Sizemore .150/.614). Travis Hafner is also not expected in the line-up (no DH); one of Cleveland's top hitters on the season when healthy. Sanchez continues to shoot himself in the foot with the amount of free passes he issues (53 BBs in 85 IP). Off a rough outing in Oakland, I expect him to bounce back with a solid effort at home. The Giants are in a big slump with the bats, scoring just 16 runs in their last seven games. A closer look shows that of the 16 runs, only 10 were of the "earned" variety. Cleveland Carlos Carrasco is in fine form with three straight quality starts. Against a light hitting group, he's poised for another strong outing. Favorable
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Cleveland Indians
Carlos Carrasco
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Andrew Lange
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College Football Handicapper roundtable discussion
06.22.2011 02:10 PM
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Today in the Sportsmemo Posting Forum we featured a College Football roundtable discussion on the upcoming 2011 season. The focus was on "earners" (teams with the potential for ATS success) and "burners" (teams destine for ATS failure). The chat included analysis from the Sportsmemo Handicappers as well as our posting forum faithful.
Here's a quick list of "earners" and "burners" from the Sportsmemo Crew:
Teddy Covers
Stanford - Burner
Arizona State - Earner
Colorado State - Earner
Marty Otto
Wisconsin - Burner
SMU - Earner
Rob Veno
Virginia - Earner
Nevada - Burner
Purdue - Earner
Andrew Lange
Oklahoma State - Burner
Minnesota - Earner
Here's a link to the thread
. We'll be conducting these forum
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College Football
Teddy Covers
Andrew Lange
Rob Veno
Marty Otto
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NBA Draft Prop Bet Recommendation
06.21.2011 02:47 PM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Found a couple articles (
here
and
here
) talking about how Georgia's Trey Thompkins has slid down the draft board thanks in part to his 15.5% body fat reading at a recent camp (that is pretty doughy). ESPN's Chad Ford has him going well into the 2nd round and some reports out of Atlanta have the same. Thompkins Tweeted that he had a great workout with the Pacers who unlikely to take him 15th suggests they may have their sights on him in the second. A couple of shops offer 1st round or 2nd round/undrafted props. He's a slight favorite to go in the first round which got me a small plus price on the second. Perhaps worth a shot.
Thompkins took part in the NBA combine in Chicago last week, and he was measured as having
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NBA
Andrew Lange
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NCAAF Handicapping: Colorado plays the toughest schedule in the country
06.20.2011 01:00 PM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
We spoke briefly in last week's blog about
teams without a bye week
and in particular Colorado. I make the argument that the Buffaloes have the toughest schedule in the country and who they play specifically is only a small part of it.
For starters, because of their home-and-home against Hawaii, Colorado will play a 13-game schedule, which means no bye weeks – a tough situation for teams late in the season. Second, they didn't schedule any "wins" with no low level FBS or FCS teams on the slate. Next we have the issue of home/road games. Of their 13 games, only five are at Folsom Field. Their rivalry tilt against Colorado State will be played in Denver and the remaining seven are on the highway. Also hurting CU's chances at success are that three of its opponents (Washington, Washington State and Arizona State) come in off of bye weeks. And to top it
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College Football
Colorado Buffaloes
PAC-12
Andrew Lange
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MLB Handicapper Free Play: San Diego Padres and Minnesota Twins
06.19.2011 07:28 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
San Diego (Moseley) at Minnesota (Liriano) -147 O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Under
As long as key numbers like 8 and 7.5 remain on Minnesota games at Target Field, I'll be betting unders on a regular basis. In Game 1 of the series, both the Padres and Twins threw arguably their weakest starters and it resulted in 11 total runs. But yesterday, with the class of pitching up a notch (Baker, Stauffer), both offenses struggled with 15 strikeouts, 10 hits and one run. Tonight, we have two solid starters on the hill and a total of 7.5. San Diego's Dustin Moseley was skipped in the rotation after dislocating his left shoulder while swinging a bat. Reports indicate that he'll be good to go. His peripheral stats show that opposing teams are going to put the bat on the ball but he should be safe against this Twins lineup, especially with lefties Kubel, Morneau and Span out with various injuries. A month ago, Francisco Liriano was a bet against pitcher; even in tossing a no-hitter, he didn't seem right. But he’s
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MLB
Minnesota Twins
Francisco Liriano
San Diego Padres
Dustin Moseley
Andrew Lange
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NCAA Football Handicapping: How teams fare without a bye week
06.17.2011 02:01 PM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Bye weeks and college football can play a big role in the outcome of a team’s season. While not all bye weeks are meaningful, most allow for preparation and rest which can provide a big boost. But what about teams that play an entire season without a bye week? It doesn’t happen often but enough for us to investigate how those teams fared down the stretch. We went back over the last three years and compiled a list (see blow chart) of every school that did not have a bye and tallied the results of their final three games of the regular season. Some schools (marked with asterisks) had their bye in Week 1 and played continuously for the remainder of the season. We included them because it really doesn’t serve as an advantage. The overall numbers of our study were 31-53 SU and 36-43-3 ATS. In 2009, virtually the entire Big Ten didn’t have a bye so the numbers are perhaps skewed with “none bye teams” often playing one another. If you completely eliminate the ’09 Big Ten, the overall numbers become
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Andrew Lange
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MLB Interleague Free Play: Pittsburgh Pirates at Cleveland Indians
06.17.2011 07:11 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Pittsburgh (Correia) at Cleveland (Tomlin) -140 O/U 8
Recommendation: Over
There was an expected regression from Cleveland's Josh Tomlin though perhaps not as much as we've seen. Tomlin has allowed 22 earned runs over his last 23 innings. His strikeout-to-walk ratio has been fine (16:2) it is just that he's simply not fooling anyone anymore (39 hits). Pitching to contact is a fine philosophy but when you are right-handed and tossing in the mid-80's, you walk a very fine line. Pittsburgh's Kevin Correia is similar to Tomlin in that he's managed to put up solid seasonal numbers despite relatively average stuff. But here's a guy with a 4.48 career ERA despite over half of his innings coming at AT&T and Petco parks. And if we look closely, though not as dramatic, we are starting to see a Tomlin-like regression. Over his last seven starts, Correia’s produced much more realistic numbers (43 IP, 4.60 ERA, 50 hits, 20 Ks, .765 OPS). The Indians have really struggled offensively – something
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Pittsburgh Pirates
Kevin Correia
Cleveland Indians
Josh Tomlin
Andrew Lange
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MLB Day Game Free Play: Chicago White Sox at Minnesota Twins
06.16.2011 06:55 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Chicago (Buehrle) -110 at Minnesota (Blackburn) O/U 8
Recommendation: Under
Getaway baseball with Mark Buehrle on the hill typically grabs my attention. A total of 8 in Target Field does as well. Buehrle has been his old consistent self of late, allowing 2-3 earned runs and tossing 6-7 innings virtually every outing (eight straight quality starts). He made two starts at Target Field last season and had little trouble, allowing just three earned runs in 15 innings of work. He'll face a Minnesota lineup that last night looked like a Triple-A team. I respect how creative the Twins have gotten offensively – hit and runs, bunting, aggressive on the base paths. They stole six bases last night which played a big role in them scoring four runs. That likely won't happen today with Buehrle on the hill; he's allowed only two this season. Nick Blackburn has been in solid form as well, allowing more than two earned runs just one in his last eight starts. He understands how to pitch in Target Field with a 2.97
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MLB
Chicago White Sox
Mark Buehrle
Minnesota Twins
Nick Blackburn
Andrew Lange
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MLB Handicapper Free Play: Cleveland Indians at New York Yankees
06.10.2011 08:14 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Cleveland (Carmona) at New York (Nova) -155 O/U 10
Recommendation: Over
The Cleveland Indians have really struggled offensively of late with just 2.9 runs per game over their last 16 contests. But a closer look shows that a lot of those struggles came against left-handed pitching. Of those 16 games, six were against left-handed starters and the Tribe produced only four runs in those games. Against righties, while not outstanding, the numbers were much better (4.3 runs per game). This R/L spilt is showcased in their overall season numbers (.421 SLG, .749 OPS vs. righties; .376, .691 vs. lefties).
Tonight, Cleveland travels to New York to face right-hander Ivan Nova. The Indians have the potential to put a lot of lefties in their lineup (Jack Hannahan, Carlos Santana, Asdrubal Cabrera, Grady Sizemore, Shin-Soo Choo, Michael Brantley and Travis Buck). Nova hasn't been that bad (4.50 ERA) but his peripheral numbers (26 BBs, 29 Ks in 60 IP) suggest he could struggle tonight. Lefties
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MLB
Cleveland Indians
Fausto Carmona
New York Yankees
Ivan Nova
Andrew Lange
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