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The ever-changing art of betting on the NFL Preseason
08.13.2012 11:21 AM
Teddy Covers
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers
I write a How To Beat The NFL Preseason article just about every year. But this is no cut and paste job from previous editions, because my strategies for betting (and beating) preseason football have been altered over the years, in some ways quite dramatically.
The betting markets are not static entities – they’re changing and shifting, year by year. Betting strategies that gain attention because they work become the status quo, and the bookmakers adjust appropriately.
Part of the change is the pointspread itself. What was once a +7 becomes a +5; instead of laying -2.5, the books adjust and force you to lay -4.5. As a natural consequence, the overall winning percentage of relatively popular and successful strategies drops as time progressed.
At the same time, the game itself changes from season to season, decade to decade. Coach’s gameplans change over time, as do locker room mentalities and the overall capabilities of the athletes that we’re betting on. Frankly, there’s an inordinate amount of outdated information circulating around the betting world; info that should be
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Teddy Covers
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College Football Handicapping: Iowa adjusting to new offensive coordinator
08.09.2012 01:14 PM
Printer Friendly
There were times last season when Iowa's offense was fairly explosive. They used the no-huddle in early season victories over Pittsburgh and UL-Monroe but when it was all said and done, the Hawkeyes were just another mediocre Big Ten offense. Quarterback
James Vandenberg returns
for his senior season but will have to adjust to a new offensive coordinator and new system. Longtime OC Ken O'Keefe moved on to the NFL and Kirk Ferentz brought in former
Texas OC Greg Davis
. According to reports, Davis runs what is called a "West Coast Hybrid" offense. The Hawkeyes will have plenty of opportunity to
break in their new offense
as the front half of the schedule is loaded with teams who struggled defensively last season: Iowa State (95th nationally total defense), Northern Illinois (88th), Central Michigan (96th) and
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Sportsmemo Handicapper Teddy Covers' AFC West Gambling Preview
08.09.2012 10:55 AM
Teddy Covers
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers
Denver Broncos
Last year, in John Fox’s first season at the helm in Denver, the Broncos got hot down the stretch, in large part due to some Tim Tebow magic, and won the division with an 8-8 record (7-9 ATS, 9-7 to the Over). They faced a schedule that was right around the league average in terms of toughness, yet were outgained by 0.4 yards per play while finishing -12 in turnovers.
2012 Issues:
Fox returns as the head coach, as does offensive coordinator Mike McCoy, but the Broncos have a new defensive coordinator; former Jaguars head coach Jack Del Rio. Del Rio served at the same position under Fox in Carolina prior to his ascension in Jacksonville.
But nobody in Denver is talking about the coaching staff – they’re talking about Peyton Manning. Manning is 36 years old, coming off a lost season and four neck surgeries. He’ll be throwing to a largely unproven group of receivers – no WR on the squad has more than 124 career catches. And Denver doesn’t have much of a Plan B if Manning doesn’t work out – backup Caleb Hanie was nothing short of a
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Denver Broncos
Oakland Raiders
San Diego Chargers
Kansas City Chiefs
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MLB Handicapper Free Play: Arizona Diamonbacks at Pittsburgh Pirates
08.09.2012 08:05 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Arizona
(Saunders) at
Pittsburgh
(Rodriguez) -125 O/U 8
Recommendation: Under
PNC Park has been a cash cow for UNDERS this season at 16-34-2 O/U. The Pirates had a big offensive surge from mid-June to mid-July that saw then average over six runs per game. They've since come back down to earth, averaging about four runs over their last 19 games. And during that stretch, the scores at PNC Park have been extremely low with outputs of 7, 6, 3, 2, 6, 5, 4, 14 and 13. Note that the last two games were aided by unearned runs and a few bullpen meltdowns. The lefty vs. lefty matchup at PNC Park is one that I have been consistently betting UNDER the last few years. Game 1 of this series featured southpaws Wade Miley and Erik Bedard and the end result was just four runs. Wandy Rodriguez has thrown back-to-back quality starts since coming over from Houston. I think his curveball is a good matchup against some of Arizona's dead fastball hitters. Joe Saunders continues to amaze despite marginal
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Andrew Lange
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Getting to Know the CFL from a Betting Perspective
08.08.2012 07:53 AM
ICC
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Submitted by ICC
As part of “Ian Cameron Capping” here at Sportsmemo, I will be providing Canadian Football League service for the remainder of the 2012 season. The CFL offers an under-the-radar betting opportunity that can be beaten with regularity by anyone willing to put in the work and the time to do so. I have a documented personal betting record of 15-10 for +9.52 units of profit so far this season using the same Sportsmemo 1, 1.5 and 2 unit betting scale. That includes a perfect 4-0 record on 2-unit best bets which are better known as 20* plays here at Sportsmemo.
With six weeks of the regular season already in the books, I felt I would take the opportunity to have my debut blog here at Sportsmemo be about what has taken place so far in the CFL season from a team by team perspective. I’ll include each team’s SU and ATS records as well as their Over/Under results. We’ll start with the teams in the East Division and then shift our focus to the West.
East Division
Hamilton Tiger-Cats (3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS, 5-0 O/U)
We will start with the team that is currently leading the East Division with a 3-2
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College Football Handicapping: Nebraska's Martinez predicts better passing game
08.07.2012 07:00 AM
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Not one to lack any confidence, Nebraska quarterback Taylor Martinez boldly predicted that he will complete
70% of his passes
this season. Only a junior, Martinez has 25 starts under his belt and while better with his feet, it is reasonable to think his accuracy (56% last season) will improve. The Cornhuskers ran the ball on nearly 68% of their plays in 2011 and are obviously looking for more balance.
“I'm capable of doing that every game if they gave me the chance to,” Martinez said, answering a later question about the loss to the Wildcats. “I've proved I can throw the ball against Oklahoma State and Northwestern. Whatever game we need to throw the ball, I'm capable of doing it.”
“We're just trying to utilize all our weapons,” senior wide receiver Tim Marlowe said. “Our running game was amazing ... but we know to be one of the best offenses in the country, we have to be 50/50. Especially on third downs, to complete passes to keep our long drives going, take the will out of people's
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Coaching changes and decline in talent cause MAC to struggle ATS vs. BCS schools
08.06.2012 01:35 PM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
The MAC has long been a conference where coaching and player continuity went a long way. Coaches received ample time to help rebuild or maintain programs while players came in as freshmen, sat the bench, learned the system, and became key contributors by the time they were upperclassmen. But over the last few years, we've seen a lot of coaching turnover and as a result the talent level has dipped.
Right now you have two coaches considered to be "veterans" in Western Michigan's Bill Cubit and Ohio's Frank Solich. And not surprisingly, many publications have the Broncos and Bobcats picked to win their respective divisions. The rest of the league is littered with coaches and thus programs still trying to find their way. Heading into last year, we posted a blog on the MAC's record vs. BCS schools from 2008-10. Obviously a good chunk of the results were "paycheck" games on the road against the Big Ten. Still, the MAC as a whole performed fairly well against the spread with a 42-48-2 mark.
Last year however, the lack of talent and coaching turnover (11 of the 13 coaches were in their first, second or third seasons) really showed in the results as
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Andrew Lange
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Teddy Covers' Wiseguy Report: Early betting notes on college and pro football
08.06.2012 11:15 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Betting on the upcoming football season during the summer months is a long, drawn out process. The NFL lines begin the process beginning with odds posted just days after the Super Bowl for the next team to win it all.
Then come Week 1 NFL pointspreads and totals, NFL season Over/Under wins, NFL lines for Games of the Year and from the brave bookmakers at Cantor Gaming, every single game on the board for the entire season. Last to market come the NFL season long proposition wagers and Week 1 preseason lines.
The process in college football takes a bit longer; no surprise in that regard with 124 teams on the regular betting board compared to only 32 NFL teams. The process begins, like in the NFL, with the future book – odds to win it all – that come out soon after the BCS Championship Game has been played.
College football Game of the Year pointspreads and Over/Under win totals come next. Last, but not least, we see those Week 1 lines come out – the lines that signify that yes, summer is almost over!
Over the course of the past week, just about every major sportsbook both here in Las Vegas and offshore has posted their Week 1
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Handicapper Teddy Covers talks AFC West betting on the Sportsmemo Podcast
08.06.2012 09:37 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
Sportsmemo Handicapper Teddy Covers and host Andrew Lange discussed the AFC West Division on Monday's Podcast. You can
listen here
.
2012 AFC West Betting Results and Odds
AFC West
2011 SU W-L
2011 ATS W-L
Season O/U (Pinny)
Division Odds (Pinny)
San Diego
8-8
6-10
9un-129
+192
Denver
8-8
7-9
8.5ov-157
+164
Oakland
8-8
9-6-1
7ov-119
+543
Kansas City
7-9
9-7
8ov-120
+336
Teddy Covers 2012 NFL Season O/U Wins [61-27 69% Lifetime] $199
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College Football Gambling: Arizona State Sun Devils Season Over/Under Wins
08.06.2012 07:31 AM
Rob Veno
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Submitted by Rob Veno
Arizona State Sun Devils
Recommendation: Under 5 wins (-135 @5Dimes)
The Dennis Erickson era ended with a thud last season as Arizona State’s lofty preseason expectations eroded into a 6-7 record which culminated with an embarrassing 56-24 loss to Boise State in the Las Vegas Bowl. Ex-Tulsa and Pittsburgh head coach Todd Graham takes over the program which is heading into this fall camp much differently than last season. Unlike last August, when droves of college football followers were jumping on the ASU bandwagon and proclaiming them top 25 material, this summer is filled with skeptics and zero talk of a PAC-12 South title.
There are numerous reasons for the mass exodus of national support for this team but there are four in particular that have me feeling the Sun Devils will likely win even less games than last season.
Offensively it seems as if Arizona State is trying to jam the old square peg into a round hole by currently listing sophomore Mike Bercovici as their no. 1 quarterback heading into this campaign. Bercovici is a pure pocket passer in Graham’s run oriented spread option which obviously
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