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NFL Gambling Notes: Carolina not worred about poor run game in Week 1
09.11.2012 12:25 PM
Printer Friendly
New Orleans
-2.5 at
Carolina
O/U 50.5
The Carolina Panthers respond to being held to only 10 yards rushing in Week 1's loss to Tampa Bay. Head coach Ron Rivera claims their
struggles are fixable
. Running back Jonathan Stewart missed that game and is lited as questionable for Sunday.
“There’s some cause for optimism as the mistakes on the offensive side are all correctable,” Rivera said Monday. “It wasn’t a glaring thing as far as schematically. It was a player here or a player there, something that they did (wrong). We’ll get better at it.”
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NFL
Carolina Panthers
New Orleans Saints
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NFL Betting News and Notes Week 1
09.11.2012 12:18 PM
ICC
Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC
Here is my Week 1 edition of NFL News & Notes as I will examine a few games where the stats and/or final score don’t tell the entire story. Having the ability to separate fact from fiction will allow you to make the proper adjustments to your own handicapping.
Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets
This game is one of those classic situations where the box score doesn’t tell the truth. The Bills outgained the Jets 390-384. Buffalo barely lost the battle for first downs (21-20) and time of possession was close to even. So does that mean Buffalo, despite losing, played well and could have won the game? Absolutely not! The Bills were miserable. The offense struggled all day with little to no running game aside from the one CJ Spiller touchdown run. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick was brutal; missing his receivers with high and inaccurate throws throughout the game to go with three interceptions. The defense couldn't stop the run and the secondary was carved up by Mark Sanchez and receivers Stephen Hill and Jeremy Kerley. The 48-28 final score was the true indication of the lopsided nature of this game. It wasn't the meaningless yardage battle won
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Ian Cameron
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Sports Betting Podcast 9-11-2012 with Handicappers Erin Rynning and Alf Musketa
09.11.2012 10:54 AM
Printer Friendly
Tuesday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicappers Erin Ryning and Alf Musketa. Erin covered the Big Ten while Alf broke down this week's football line moves.
Today's segments
Full Show
Erin Rynning - Big Ten Conference
Alf Musekta - Football Line Moves
To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our
Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage
.
ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.
Tags:
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College Football
Erin Rynning
Alf Musekta
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NFL Betting Trends: Arizona Cardinals 6-2 ATS at +7 or more on East Coast
09.11.2012 08:30 AM
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Arizona
at
New England
-13.5 O/U 48.5
A quick look at Arizona's history in the Eastern Time Zone. Since 2007, the Cardinals are 6-13 SU, 10-9 ATS, and 11-8 O/U. They are 6-2 ATS when catching +7 or more.
Arizona Cardinals Betting Results in Eastern Time Zone
Year
Opponent
SU Score
ATS
O/U
2011
at Cincinnati
Loss 16-23
Loss +4.5
U 41
2011
at Philadelphia
Win 21-17
Win +13.5
U 47
2011
at Baltimore
Loss 27-30
Win +12
O 43
2011
at Washington
Loss 21-22
Win +4.5
U 44.5
2010
at Carolina
Loss 12-19
Loss +2.5
U 37.5
2010
at Atlanta
Loss 7-41
Loss +7
O 43
2009
at Detroit
Win 31-24
Loss -14
O 46.5
2009
at N.Y. Giants
Win 24-17
Win +9
U 46.5
2009
at Jacksonville
Win 31-17
Win +3
O 44
2008
at Carolina
Win 33-13
Win +10
U 49.5
2008
at New England
Loss 7-47
Loss +9
O 43.5
2008
at Philadelphia
Loss 20-48
Loss +3
O 48.5
2008
at Carolina
Loss 23-27
Win +5
O 43
2008
at N.Y. Jets
Loss 35-56
Loss +1
O 43.5
2008
at Washington
Loss 17-24
Loss +3
U 43.5
2007
at Cincinnati
Win 35-27
Win +3
O 49.5
2007
at Tampa Bay
Loss 10-17
Loss +3.5
U 39
2007
at Washington
Loss 19-21
Win +9
O 35
2007
at Baltimore
Loss 23-26
Win +7
O 35.5
Results
6-13
10-9
11-8
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NFL
Arizona Cardinals
New England Patriots
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NFL Betting Trends: Oakland Raiders travel to East Coast on short rest
09.11.2012 08:14 AM
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Oakland
-2.5 at
Miami
O/U 39.5
A quick look at Oakland's history in the Eastern Time Zone. Since 2007, the Raiders are 3-10 SU, 6-7 ATS, and 10-3 O/U -- not once were they favored. Note that last year, Oakland also traveled to the East Coast on short rest after a Monday Night Football game. They lost at Buffalo, 38-35 but covered the +3.5.
Oakland Raiders Betting Result in Eastern Time Zone
Year
Opponent
SU Score
ATS
O/U
2011
at Buffalo
Loss 35-38
Win +3.5
O 40.5
2011
at Miami
Loss 14-34
Loss +3.5
O 43
2010
at Jacksonville
Loss 31-38
Loss +3.5
O 41
2010
at Pittsburgh
Loss 3-35
Loss +9
U 41
2009
at Cleveland
Loss 9-23
Loss +3
U 37
2009
at Pittsburgh
Win 27-24
Win +14.5
O 37
2009
at NY Giants
Loss 7-44
Loss +15.5
O 38
2008
at Tampa Bay
Win 31-24
Win +11
O 39
2008
at Miami
Loss 15-17
Win +10
U 38
2008
at Baltimore
Loss 10-29
Loss +9
O 34.5
2008
at Buffalo
Loss 23-24
Win +10
O 37
2007
at Jacksonville
Loss 11-49
Loss +14
O 40
2007
at Miami
Win 35-17
Win +3.5
O 40
Results
3-10
6-7
10-3
Tags:
NFL
Oakland Raiders
Buffalo Bills
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College Football Handicapping: Alf Musketa's Line Moves Report 9/11/2012
09.11.2012 07:52 AM
Alf Musketa
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Submitted by Alf Musketa
Navy at Penn State
Penn State opened -6.5 now -5.5
Not a huge line move, no big deal, right? Well I've talked to several handicappers this week that love Penn Starte especially against Navy who looked like they couldn't stop a Pop-Warner team in their first game in Ireland. Is this line being set up for a major play or is the early money just saying we are going to bet against the Nittany Lions until they win? I think it's a set up.
Northern Illinois at Army
Northern Illinois opened -1.5 now -3
Anyone that bet on San Diego State or against Army wants to reinvest their money here, because Army like Navy has no defense. (Football speaking only) Yes, teams improve the most from game one to game two, but usually the Academy teams are in tip top shape at the start of the season and prospect ATS. Northern Illinois gave Iowa everything it could handle in Week 1 and that effort was better than Army showed last week so I agree with the move, made by smart handicappers.
Connecticut at Maryland
Maryland opened pk, Connecticut now -3
Interesting move here after
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College Football
NFL
Alf Musekta
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Sportsmemo's NFL Week 1 Betting Recap
09.11.2012 06:10 AM
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By the betting numbers...NFL Week 1 (see results below). Note that we will be using CRIS's opening and closing lines throughout the season.
Based on closing lines…
Home teams had a small edge at 8-7-1 ATS.
Underdog had a small edge at 8-7-1 ATS.
Games lined at a touchdown or more were split 3-3 ATS.
Totals went 9-7 O/U.
Based on the opening and closing lines, the market was "correct" six times but "incorrect" seven times. "Correct" meaning if a game opened -3 and closed -4 and the favorite won by 7, the market was “correct.” If a game opened -3 and closed -4 and the favorite lost outright, the market was obviously "incorrect." In three games, the game opened and closed at the same number.
Parlay combo breakdown (15 games)
Favorite-Over: 5
Favorite-Under: 2
Underdog-Over: 3
Underdog-Under: 5
Note that we did not include pick ‘em lines and pushes for our parlay combos.
2012 NFL Week 1 Betting Recap
Away Team
Home Team
Open
Close
Final
ATS Close
O/U Close
Dallas
NY Giants
NYG -3 (-124)
NYG -3.5
DAL 24, NYG 17
Underdog
Under 45.5
Indianapolis
Chicago
CHI -10
CHI -10
IND 41, IND 21
Favorite
Over 42
Philadelphia
Cleveland
PHI -8.5
PHI -8.5
PHI 17, CLE 16
Underdog
Under 42.5
Buffalo
NY Jets
NYJ -4.5
NYJ -3 (-105)
NYJ 48, BUF 28
Favorite
Over 39
Washington
New Orleans
NO -9.5
NO -8
WAS 40, NO 32
Underdog
Over 50
New England
Tennessee
NE -6.5
NE -5
NE 34, TEN 13
Favorite
Under 48
Jacksonville
Minnesota
MIN -4.5
MIN -3 (-125)
MIN 26, JAX 23 OT
Push
Over 38
Miami
Houston
HOU -7
HOU -13
HOU 30, MIA 10
Favorite
Under 41.5
St. Louis
Detroit
DET -9
DET -8
DET 27, STL 23
Underdog
Over 46
Atlanta
Kansas City
ATL -1
ATL -2
ATL 40, KC 24
Favorite
Over 43
San Francisco
Green Bay
GB -6.5
GB -6
SF 30, GB 22
Underdog
Over 47
Carolina
Tampa Bay
CAR -3
CAR -3
TB 16, CAR 10
Underdog
Under 45.5
Seattle
Arizona
ARI -1.5
SEA -3 (+105)
ARI 20, SEA 16
Underdog
Under 41
Pittsburgh
Denver
DEN -2
DEN -3 (+110)
DEN 31, PIT 19
Favorite
Over 45
Cincinnati
Baltimore
BAL -6.5
BAL -7
CIN 44, BAL 13
Favorite
Over 43
San Diego
Oakland
OAK pk
OAK -1
SD 22, OAK 14
Underdog
Under 47.5
Tags:
NFL
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NFL Handicapping: History says bet against Norv Turner in Week 1...and Week 2
09.10.2012 02:20 PM
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San Diego
at
Oakland
-1 O/U 47
Sportsmemo Handicapper Teddy Covers mentioned on
today's Podcast
that we should look into San Diego head coach Norv Turner's track record as a head coach in Week 1. Nice call TC. In his three stops, Turner is 6-8 straight up and a dismal 4-10 against the spread.
P.S. Week 2 ain't much better (5-9 SU, 5-8-1 ATS)
Norv Turner Betting Results as a Head Coach in Week 1
Year
Team
Week 1 SU
Week 1 ATS
1994
Washington
Loss
Loss
1995
Washington
Win
Win
1996
Washington
Loss
Loss
1997
Washington
Win
Win
1998
Washington
Loss
Loss
1999
Washington
Loss
Loss
2000
Washington
Win
Loss
2004
Oakland
Loss
Win
2005
Oakland
Loss
Loss
2007
San Diego
Win
Win
2008
San Diego
Loss
Loss
2009
San Diego
Win
Loss
2010
San Diego
Loss
Loss
2011
San Diego
Win
Loss
Results
6-8
4-10
Tags:
NFL
San Diego Chargers
Oakland Raiders
Teddy Covers
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Sports Betting Podcast 9-10-2012 with Handicappers Teddy Covers and Rob Veno
09.10.2012 10:25 AM
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Monday's Sportsmemo Podcast featured handicappers Teddy Covers and Rob Veno. Teddy covered NFL Week 2 line moves while Rob recapped College Football Week 2.
Today's segments
Full Show
Teddy Covers - NFL Openng Line Report
Rob Veno - College Football Week 2 Recap
To listen to past shows, be sure to visit our
Sportsmemo Podcast Homepage
.
ITunes users can subscribe to the show by searching "Sportsmemo" in the podcast directory.
Tags:
NFL
College Football
Teddy Covers
Rob Veno
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Teddy Covers' Wiseguy Report: Recapping NFL rookie quarterbacks in Week 1
09.10.2012 07:09 AM
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With an NFL record five rookie starting quarterbacks under center on opening day, I spent the first Sunday of the regular season watching these youngsters very carefully. I tried to evaluate each one within the context of his team – no quarterback can be successful without the complimentary pieces of the equation surrounding him, both on offense and on defense. Here are my thoughts:
Cleveland Browns
- Cleveland’s defense held Michael Vick to a QB rating of 25.4. They forced five turnovers, returning one for a score and setting up all three Browns’ offensive scores. Their defensive playmakers made huge plays, most notably CB Joe Haden and LB D’Qwell Jackson, and Michael Vick was positively pummeled by the Browns pass rush.
And yet the Browns still found a way to lose. With the game on the line late in the fourth quarter – boom, a dropped INT in the end zone that would have clinched the game. And there’s no sugarcoating this performance from Brandon Weeden, the worst looking of all the rookie quarterbacks in the preseason and in his first “real” start.
On Weeden's first drive, he missed a
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NFL
Teddy Covers
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