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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: NFL Season Over/Under Wins

06.03.2013     11:43 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
In last week’s column, I wrote about my personal process for assessing NFL Season Win Totals, calling those totals “the single most profitable set of wagers that I’ve found in my 15 years as a professional bettor living in Las Vegas.”  I also wrote in detail about the first step of that process – identifying accurate strength of schedule numbers from last year, to better gauge whether teams overachieved or underachieved in 2012; giving me a superior starting point to begin my analysis for this year.

I closed out the article with these two paragraphs: “The New York Giants faced single toughest schedule from last year based on my numbers on the weeks the games were played.  The Saints weren’t far behind.  Arizona, San Francisco, Tennessee, Baltimore and St Louis all faced abnormally tough slates.

“On the easy side, the Colts, Texans and Bengals all stood out; by far the three easiest schedules in the league.  Miami, Atlanta and San Diego also had much easier than average slates.  In my next column, I’ll write about the next step in the process -- identifying accurate Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




MLB Betting: Underreported Story...Tampa Bay Rays an Offensive Juggernaut!

06.03.2013     07:11 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

For quite a few years now, the Tampa Bay Rays have been stereotyped as a small market team that has to manufacture little advantages at the edges to compete in the tough AL East. There was a Moneyball type book written about them. The manager is considered by some to be a tactical wizard. The team found hard throwing young pitchers to shut down opponents. They’d try to invent enough runs to outscore what those solid pitchers were allowing.

Because images are hard to shake, particularly images that have been accurate for a few years…changes in form often go unnoticed or underreported when they happen. That’s the case right now with the Tampa Bay Rays…who have become an offensive JUGGERNAUT over the past month and a half.

Most of this year’s coverage in the blog has concerned 5-inning results. I’m going to focus on full 9-inning numbers today because they tell the story so well…and because most of you reading this are still seeing the Read more


Tags: MLB Tampa Bay Rays Stat Intelligence




NBA Betting Recap: Indiana Pacers take down Miami Heat, force Game 7

06.02.2013     07:25 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I said I wouldn’t get too wound up in a Miami Heat playoff series until they faced an elimination game. They’d shown a tendency to pace themselves all year. We learned last year that they're not necessarily vulnerable when they’re looking vulnerable.

NOW, they’re vulnerable!

They still have some margin for error because of home court advantage. And, it’s tough to expect that Dwyane Wade…and Chris Bosh…and Ray Allen will all be as worthless Monday night as they were this evening. LeBron James is very likely to get some help. If he doesn’t, then it will be the Pacers who advance to face the San Antonio Spurs. It’s a team game. LeBron and a bunch of half-hearted, shot missing, non-rebounders isn’t much of a team.

Reasons for hope for Indiana:

*The grueling pace of this series…every other day of intense physicality…may be having a much bigger impact on Bosh, Wade, and Allen than Read more


Tags: NBA Miami Heat Indiana Pacers Stat Intelligence




NBA Betting Recap: This Time, Miami Rebounds (literally)

05.31.2013     07:43 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

The Miami Heat said they’d make it a point of emphasis to prevent the Indiana Heat from owning the battle of the boards in Game Five of the Eastern Conference Finals. They certainly did that, particularly when it came to Indiana’s penchant for offensive rebounds.

Offensive Boards

Game Four: Indiana 15, Miami 12 (Total—Indiana 49, Miami 30)

Game Five: Indiana 6, Miami 6 (Total---Indiana 33, Miami 32)

Denied second chance points (and the potential for foul calls on second chance attempts), Indiana’s scoring dropped 20 from the 99 they posted back in Game Four. Miami doesn’t have to win this stat to win the series. They just have to neutralize Indiana’s advantage. The Pacers have little chance to fully compete if they‘re NOT winning rebounding.

That can also be expressed in our “Imposing of Will” stat that showed such dominance for the Pacers in the last game. Let’s update the Read more


Tags: NBA Miami Heat Indiana Pacers Stat Intelligence




MLB Betting Notes: Yankees Bats Cooling Off

05.30.2013     07:55 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Through the early part of the season, there was some media coverage about how the “replacement” guys on the Yankees were putting runs on the board in the absence of the big name stars who were injured. That and great pitching helped the Yankees stay in the fight for first place in the AL East even while shorthanded. The Yankees remain only a game out of first place right now after both they and Boston lost Wednesday evening.

Scoring has hit a wall in recent weeks. There are a lot of ways to show that. Since I’m working hard each day to log all the five-inning results from pitching and hitting perspectives…I can show you what the slump looks like through that lens.

*Remember that make-up doubleheader the Yankees had to play in Cleveland where they kind of “traded” gentlemen’s shutouts for a split? The Yanks scored 0 and 1 in the first five innings of those two games.

*New York came home to play Seattle after that. They could only manage Read more


Tags: MLB New York Yankees




Rugby teams rely on gambling revenue to stay afloat

05.29.2013     12:32 PM     Printer Friendly
Australia's National Rugby League has a pretty interesting relationship with sports betting. For starters, a week doesn't go by where there isn't some sort of scandal involving point shaving or player publically admitting to being a degenerate gambler. There are a lot of folks who want to rid the league of its gambling ties but sportsbooks sponsor various teams – many of which need the revenue in order to remain profitable.


“At a revenue level, more than half of the clubs in the NRL have gambling sponsors. Some gambling companies support two or three teams. If you close off a revenue stream, there needs to be an alternative. Given how much is at stake with gambling, you Read more








NBA Gambling Recap: Indiana Pacers rebound, tie series 2-2

05.29.2013     08:12 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Literally! Indiana won the rebounding battle 48-30, and used extended late possessions thanks to offensive rebounds to score the game winning points in the final moments.

We haven’t had a chance to talk about the “Imposing of Will” stat during this series…because Indiana’s inside defense really hadn’t been very impressive. Tonight, they held Miami to 41% on two-point baskets, while also allowing the Heat to only grab 38% of the game’s rebounds. THAT’S what we had gotten used to seeing in the Knicks series:

Imposing of Will (lower is better)

Indiana 79, Miami 119

An absolute slaughter in the stat. But, telling in its own way that Indiana was still playing a nailbiter with a couple minutes to go even with that edge in the “defense and rebounding” numbers.

Let’s check the numbers for the series. Again, this is two-point shooting percentage allowed, plus rebound percentage Read more


Tags: NBA Indiana Pacers Miami Heat Stat Intelligence




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Getting a leg up on betting the 2013-14 NFL season

05.28.2013     10:31 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
I’m writing this column over Memorial Day Weekend, nearly two and a half months before the NFL preseason kicks off with the Hall of Fame Game on August 4th and a full three and a half months before the start of the regular season.  And yet NFL betting numbers for the upcoming campaign are becoming more and more widely available; once again proving quite clearly that the NFL is King when it comes to sports betting.

The single most profitable set of wagers that I’ve found in my 15 years as a professional bettor living in Las Vegas are NFL Season Win totals.  Super Bowl odds, and odds to win divisions or conferences only give bettors one choice – betting ON a particular team.  Then that team has to beat out all of their competition to win the division/conference/Super Bowl for you to cash, offering big payday longshot returns, but cashing a very low percentage of the wagers that are made.

NFL Season Win totals, on the other hand, offer bettors the opportunity to bet AGAINST teams from a macro perspective.  And with win totals, you don’t have to worry about the competition, even when betting Overs.  For example, the Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




NBA Betting Recap: San Antonio Spurs take commanding 3-0 series lead

05.26.2013     08:47 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Last night we talked about how Game Two of Indiana/Miami looked so much like Game One. Tonight, we get to do the same thing in the Western Conference finals…as Game Three in Memphis looked very much like Game Two in San Antonio.

*Home Team jumps out to big lead

*Visitor rallies

*Game goes to overtime at 85-all in G2, and 86-all in G3

*Spurs know what to do in overtime

What jumped out to me watching tonight was how Memphis WASN’T Indiana. You just didn’t see the same fire in their eyes…the same sense of urgency, even though the Grizzlies were already playing with their backs to the wall tonight while Indiana was just trying to break serve. Also, Indiana made its free throws last night, while Memphis gagged way too many with their season on the line this evening.

San Antonio 104, Memphis 93 (in overtime)

2-Point Percentage: San Antonio 55%, Memphis 40%

3-Point Shooting: San Antonio Read more


Tags: NBA San Antonio Spurs Memphis Grizzlies




NBA Betting Recap: Indiana Pacers even up series (plus MLB notes)

05.25.2013     07:47 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

If home court advantage is worth anything, then the Indiana Pacers have been the better team in BOTH of the games played so far in the Eastern Conference Finals.

Now…home court may end up not meaning much of anything in this series when it’s all said and done. The overall median for the playoffs is still at just two points. And, Miami is known for being very strong on the road. We may be looking at a series of virtual coin flips, with neither team being shaken by the opposing crowd. The near equivalent of a best-of-seven on neutral courts.

Miami better HOPE that’s the case. Because Indiana has been GREAT at home in the playoffs! I’m not going to fall into last year’s trap of making assumptions early in this matchup. We’ve talked about this a lot already. Miami teases you, then breaks your heart if you’re rooting for them to lose.

Let’s run the numbers from Friday night, then review the categories that have been the Read more


Tags: NBA MLB Indiana Pacers Miami Heat Stat Intelligence



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