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NFL Handicapping: Raiders may start Pryor over Flynn

08.29.2013     07:24 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Despite signing Matt Flynn during the offseason, the Oakland Raiders are hinting that they may go with Terrelle Pryor as their Week 1 starter. The same Terrelle Pryor who admitted earlier this summer that he basically didn't know how to throw a football. That said, Pryor has shown the ability to make plays, something the Raiders sure could use. He's expected to start tonight's game against Seattle.


“We signed Matt [Flynn] with the thought being that he’s going to come in and be the starter, and we would have that package for Terrelle,” Olson said. “But Terrelle has done some things in these preseason games that we’ve been excited about; stuff that a lot of people are excited about. With his success on the field, we’ll continue to add to that package. It was the thought process going in to it. There wasn’t a big package for him a year ago, so we had to absorb that first part. As we continue to grow Read more



Tags: NFL Oakland Raiders




NFL Preseason Betting Recap: Saturday Stats (August 17)

08.18.2013     07:21 AM     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Let’s run the numbers from the first five Saturday games in market rotation order…

(If you’re new to the site, “Drive Points” are those scored on drives of 60 yards or more. “Stat Score” is an estimate of what the final score should have been based only on rushing and passing yardage. The formula for that is 2 times rushing yardage…plus passing yardage…times 0.67…divided by 15)

Arizona 12 (-4), Dallas 7

Total Yardage: Dallas 342, Arizona 365

Passing Stats: Dallas 25-37-3-298, Arizona 21-40-1-260

Turnovers: Dallas 6, Arizona 1

Drive Points: Dallas 7, Arizona 3

Stat Score: Dallas 17, Arizona 21

Yup…Dallas sure is cleaning things up. SIX TURNOVERS! Good thing they had that head start on everyone else with the Hall of Fame game.

Tony Romo actually played pretty well. He was 12-14-0-142, which is good yardage for that many completions and attempts. Read more


Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




College Football Handicapping: American Athletic Conference Stat Day

08.01.2013     08:09 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Our final look at a mid-major conference features the new American Athletic Conference. It’s a 10-team league that currently features six teams from last year’s Big East, and four teams from last year’s Conference USA. You can see an emphasis on markets in the CUSA invitees. SMU and Houston bring Dallas and Houston into the fold. Central Florida is based in Orlando...in the heart of a sports-loving state and near the massive amusement park complex run by the company that owns ESPN. Memphis isn’t a megaplex, but it’s in a great football state while also being in an NBA city. The conference is hoping to grow into a big deal given that strategy.

It’s not really a big deal yet. Though, Louisville sure did the conference proud last year in the Sugar Bowl when they stunned Florida. The most surprising thing to me about the numbers you’ll be reading today is that Louisville didn’t look all that dominant by Big East standards. They played a lot of close games in a mediocre (or worse) conference before catching arrogant Florida napping and Read more


Tags: College Football AAC Stat Intelligence




Paul Pierce the latest pro athlete to compete at WSOP

07.08.2013     08:09 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
In case you missed it, Paul Pierce was traded to the New Jersey Nets. Yeah, late June NBA trades aren't exactly on our radar either. But Pierce's appearance at the World Series of Poker $10,000 Pot-Limit Omaha event caught our eye. He made it to the third day and ended up finishing 147th. Kudos, Paul.



Tags: Poker




In Stat Evaluations, Be a Judge, Not a Lawyer

06.30.2013     07:48 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I’ve touched on this periodically over the years, often in throwaway comments when I’m whining about something I just saw or read. I was thinking it was time to go into the topic again because we have so many new readers thanks to twitter (@jefffogle) and word-of-mouth. Then, a PERFECT example jumped out at me in something I was reading at Grantland.

There’s an article up this weekend about the Philadelphia 76ers. Author Ben Detrick said this about the role new general manager Sam Hinkie might have played in the development of point guard Jrue Holiday:

“When Hinkie took the reins, some thought he could help transform Holiday into the Sixers’ version of James Harden. Both are big guards with lightning-quick first steps, equally capable Read more


Tags: NBA Philadelphia 76ers Stat Intelligence




MLB Handicapping: Visualizing Outside Your Sample

06.25.2013     08:16 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Last time I said I’d try to talk more about pitchers. Something interesting happened in terms of a handicapping danger in tonight's Toronto/Tampa Bay game that makes a point everyone should remember in all sports. This is particularly true a few weeks into the football season…so it’s good to get the theme on the table now during the summer.

Esmil Rogers was making his fifth start of the season for the Toronto Blue Jays. His “first half” runs allowed in his prior four starts had been 0-1-1-0. Great job! It’s only four samples though, so you have to be careful not to get locked in to too tight an assessment of his potential. He’s not THAT good. He was a 27-year old middle reliever a few weeks ago with poor career numbers.

After tonight’s game, the line is 0-1-1-0-4, because he allowed three early home runs in his first bad start.

Jeremy Hellickson of Tampa Bay was coming at things from the other direction in a much larger Read more


Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence




NBA Gambling News: LeBron and the Heat +250 to win next year's title

06.21.2013     11:59 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Everyone's favorite stat nerd Nate Silver says LeBron James has two more NBA Championships left in him. And not even 24 hour removed from their second straight title, the Miami Heat are even money to win the Eastern Conference and +250 to three-peat according to The Greek.


What seems safe to say is that you wouldn’t want to bet on James at even money. There are just too many things that can go wrong with a player’s career as he ages: injury or illness, early retirement, bad teammates or bad luck.

Even a team as strong as this year’s Heat began the season with only about a 30 percent chance of winning the title, according to the Las Vegas odds. That percentage happens to roughly match the historical likelihood of an N.B.A. team repeating as champion, which is 33 percent.





Tags: NBA Miami Heat




NBA Finals Betting Recap: After an Unforgettable Seven Games...It's Miami!

06.21.2013     08:18 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Amazing game. Amazing series. A night and a fortnight that sports fans will be talking about for many years to come. If you’re young…you’ll talk about this series the way your elders talk about the Jordan years…or Bird/Magic. If you’re older, it was great to relive the very best this league has to offer.

Spurs fans are crushed, but proud. Heat fans are jubilant. Basketball lovers know they just experienced something very special.

The final numbers from Game Seven…

Miami 95, San Antonio 87

2-Point Percentage: San Antonio 40%, Miami 48%

3-Point Shooting: San Antonio 6/19, Miami 12/32

Free Throws: San Antonio 20/22, Miami 11/16

1’s and 2’s: San Antonio 70, Miami 59

Rebounds: San Antonio 43, Miami 43

Turnovers: San Antonio 14, Miami 14

These teams were so evenly matched top to bottom. You could make a pretty good case that it boiled down Read more


Tags: NBA Miami Heat San Antonio Spurs Stat Intelligence




NBA Finals Gambling: Over 70% of bettors side with underdog Spurs for Game 7

06.20.2013     12:01 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
San Antonio at Miami -5.5 O/U 188

Here are the consensus bets for tonight's Game 7 of the NBA Finals between the Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs courtesy of Bookmaker. Note that the percentages represent the number of bets (not total handle) placed on each given wager.

Side
San Antonio +6 (+5.5 at most offshore shops) - 71.0%

Total
San Antonio-Miami OVER 189 - 56.6%

Moneyline
San Antonio +210 - 81.6%



Tags: NBA San Antonio Spurs Miami Heat




NBA Finals Handicapping: History hasn't been kind to Game 7 road teams

06.19.2013     11:47 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
San Antonio at Miami -6 O/U 189.5

A couple of database numbers to considering for Thursday's NBA Finals Game 7 between the San Antonio Spurs and Miami Heat. Home teams are 23-8 SU and 20-11 ATS in postseason Game 7's. Totals in those games were 11-20 O/U. Since 2004, there have been two Game 7's in the finals: San Antonio won and covered vs. Detroit in 2004 and the LA Lakers won but failed to cover vs. Boston in 2009. Both games went under the total. The last road team to win a Game 7 in the NBA Finals straight up was the Washington Bullets in 1978.



Tags: NBA San Antonio Spurs Miami Heat



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