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NBA Gambling Free Play: Milwaukee Bucks at Atlanta Hawks
04.12.2013 11:04 AM
Teddy Covers
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers
Milwaukee
at
Atlanta
-7 O/U 200.5
Recommendation: Atlanta
My clients and I cashed a Big Ticket winner supporting the Hawks in their last game; a 124-101 blowout at Philly. While tonight’s game doesn’t grade out as another Big Ticket opportunity, the situation favoring Atlanta remains strong as they face off at home against the slumping, injury riddled Bucks.
Hawks head coach Larry Drew was not amused following an ugly home loss to Philly last week. Atlanta’s awful start defensively, allowing Philly to hit 16 of their first 22 shots, set the tone for the game, as Philly scored a season high 40 first quarter points. Drew decided to rest center Al Horford, forward Josh Smith and point guard Jeff Teague on Saturday at San Antonio. The Hawks lost the game by only two as 10.5 point dogs.
Here are two key Drew quotes: “Going back to training camp ... we've had to be a team that is gritty, a blue-collar team, particularly on the
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Tags:
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
Atlanta Hawks
Teddy Covers
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MLB Gambling Free Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres
04.10.2013 12:44 PM
Teddy Covers
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers
LA Dodgers
(Billingsley) at
San Diego
(Stults) +110 O/U 7
Recommendation: San Diego
This is a straight fade of Chad Billingsley in his 2013 MLB debut. Billingsley came on strong after the All Star break last year following a 4-9 start to the campaign, but a torn ligament in his elbow cut his season short. Billingsley avoided surgery, but his rehab has not been without problems, including a badly bruised index finger on his throwing hand from a bunting drill in spring training. He finished the spring allowing seven runs in just 7.2 innings of work. His minor league rehab start last week was equally problematic, struggling with his control in another subpar effort. I’m not expecting vintage Billingsley tonight!
San Diego bounced back strong yesterday following a dismal 1-5 road trip to open the season – two series where they were outscored by a combined 40-14 margin. The Padres lineup pounded out nine runs; their first
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Tags:
MLB
Los Angeles Dodgers
San Diego Padres
Teddy Covers
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Sportsmemo Handicapper Alf Musketa's Masters Tournament Betting Preview
04.10.2013 07:27 AM
Alf Musketa
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Alf Musketa
One of the reasons that the Masters is the best golf tournament of the year for bettors is because of the multitude of matchups and props. It is not quite equivalent to Super Bowl props in total numbers but few sporting events provide as much potential for profits.
Perhaps the most famous golf course in the world is a par 72 that measures 7,435 yards. Augusta National can be tamed by the best golfers, but if you do not have your "A" game there are many penalty strokes, water hazards and three putts lurking. The track this year is in hard and fast shape due to little rain in the area. The rough is slightly deeper and thicker than in past years, but it is not nearly as severe as the rough in any of the other majors.
What kind of golfer do we expect to take home the green jacket? It seems like the obvious answer is Tiger Woods, but he hasn't won here since 2005. We are looking for a long hitter to take advantage of the par fives or if conditions become wet and soft to carry the ball down the fairway. Sure, Zach Johnson, Mike Weir and even Mark O'Meara won at Augusta with less than average driving distance, but they either had extreme
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Alf Musketa
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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Betting on or against NBA bottom feeders
04.08.2013 07:26 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
I’ve been writing about college basketball fairly consistently since the Super Bowl. Now that the calendar has shifted to April, it’s time to shift focus and start writing about the NBA. With less than ten days remaining in the regular season, most of the prevailing focus is on playoff teams. That’s why I’m writing this week’s column about the bottom feeders that have already been eliminated from playoff contention.
Can we make money betting on or against these squads down the stretch? Read on to find out my thoughts on a handful of lottery bound teams before I shift my focus towards playoff squads next week and beyond! Teams are listed in alphabetical order.
In the 2012 season, the
Charlotte Bobcats
set a record for NBA futility, finishing the season 7-59 SU. Their pointspread futility made headlines here in Las Vegas as well, as the Bobcats finished as the single biggest money loser in the league by a wide margin, a woeful 23-43 ATS.
In 2013, the Bobcats didn’t set any records for futility, but they’ve still got the single worst SU record in the
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Teddy Covers
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UFC on Fuel TV 9 Gambling Free Play: Marcus Brimage +140 over Conor McGregor
04.05.2013 08:01 AM
Alf Musketa
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Submitted by Alf Musketa
UFC on Fuel TV 9 at Stockholm, Sweden
Prelims on Facebook begin Saturday, 7:50 am PT
Main Card on Fuel TV begins at 11 am PT
Free Play: #24134 Marcus Brimage (+140) over Conor McGregor
This Saturday morning live on Fuel TV from Stockholm, Sweden is the next UFC event available for wagering. UFC on Fuel TV 9 has 13 fights on the card. The main event was supposed to be between light heavyweight title contenders Alexander Gustafsson and Gegard Mousasi, but Gustafsson suffered a cut over his left eye in training just days before the scheduled fight. He is out and has been replaced by his training and sparring partner Ilir Latifi. Mousasi was a +200 underdog versus Gustafsson, but now is a (-1400) favorite over Latifi. Obviously the oddsmakers believe there is a major class difference with Latifi the late replacement, but there is no way we can lay this price.
On the prelim card which is only available to view on Facebook, we are backing Marcus Brimage (+140) over Conor McGregor. Since his Ultimate Fighter 14 Finale win in the popular UFC TUF series, Brimage won back-to-back fights in 2012 both by decision and both at
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Alf Musketa
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NCAA Tournament Betting: Stat Notes for Final Four
04.03.2013 08:16 AM
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Stat Intelligence
Here are the statlines that we’ve been using through the Dance in matchup order for Saturday. If you’re new to the blog, we tried to paint a picture of each team’s skill sets and approaches by focusing on these stats:
Two-Point Defense
Rebounding Margin
Turnover Margin
Made Treys per game
Adjusted Pace Rankings as tabulated by Ken Pomeroy
In those first four, we used CONFERENCE ONLY data because that represents a good combination of sample size, schedule quality, and relative recency (ignoring stuff that happened in November and December). I grabbed those from the various conference websites across the nation just before the conference tourneys began. Pace factor was based on the full season because that’s how Kenpom posts it on his home page.
I haven’t done any tweaking to the first four categoreis since the postseason began. We’re using these to get an image of the teams, not to do any fancy calculations.
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Louisville Cardinals
Wichita State Shockers
Michigan Wolverines
Syracuse Orange
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NHL Handicapper Free Play: Buffalo Sabres at Pittsburgh Penguins
04.02.2013 09:32 AM
Sammy P Sports
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Submitted by Sammy P Sports
Buffalo at Pittsburgh -240 O/U 5.5
Recommendation: Under
Pittsburgh has won an incredible 15 straight games and they are doing it on the defensive end. A team that has always had the offensive firepower to dominate the opposition, the Penguins are finding ways to win defensively as well. They have recorded three straight shutouts and have gone Under the total nine of their last ten games. Despite their ability to plug anyone into the lineup and get the same results, the recent injury to Sidney Crosby (broken jaw and out indefinitely) could prove costly. The trades for Jarome Iginla and Brenden Morrow up front last week will undoubtedly help offensively and defensively (both are solid two-way players), but I don't expect much chemistry between them and their new teammates right off the bat. Buffalo comes into Pittsburgh losing its last four games and with a big "for sale" sign on their roster. I'd be surprised if the Sabres didn't move more players before the 3pm EST Wednesday trade deadline. That being said, this is still a team with a ton of pride and a lot to play for. I generally like to
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Sportsmemo Handicapper Teddy Covers breaks down the Final Four
04.01.2013 12:04 PM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
I’ve been writing about college basketball consistently since the Super Bowl, and there’s room for one last college hoops column this week. No, I’m not going to break down the NIT Final Four, the CBI best-of-three series between Santa Clara and George Mason, or the CIT Championship Game between East Carolina and Weber State. This column is about the big boys!
Four teams have stood out above the rest on the biggest of stages over the past two weekends: Michigan, Syracuse, Wichita State and Louisville. Bracketologists might be surprised that only one of the top twelve seeds made it this far, with a pair of #4 seeds and a #9 seed joining the top overall seed Louisville in the Final Four.
But bettors know that seeding is essentially meaningless, especially when we’re talking about the bevy of quality teams in the Big Dance. That’s why we’ve seen lower seeded teams favored on more than a handful of occasions here in the tourney, like when Syracuse was the chalk against #3 seed Marquette, in one prominent example this past weekend.
Only one team can cut down the nets in Atlanta next
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Louisville Cardinals
Michigan Wolverines
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Wichita State Shockers
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NCAA Tournament Betting Recap: Wichita State headed to Final Four
03.31.2013 07:04 AM
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Stat Intellience
There was a lot of chatter this year that parity in college basketball had set up a great possibility that another mid major was going to make it to the Final Four. Then it happened, the 11th most likely mid major team did it!
Mid-Major Seeds
1…Gonzaga
3…New Mexico
4…Saint Louis
5…VCU, UNLV (how did UNLV get a #5 seed again??!!)
6…Memphis, Butler
7…Creighton, San Diego State
8…Colorado State
9…Wichita State, Temple
And, you can’t say it came cheap. Wichita State beat Pittsburgh as a dog…beat Gonzaga as a dog…and beat Ohio State as a dog…teams the computers had loved all season.
Current Computer Composite of “Shocked” Favorites
Gonzaga 5 in Kenpom, 7 in Sagarin, 5 in BPI
Ohio State 6 in Kenpom, 5 in Sagarin, 7 in BPI
Pittsburgh 11 in Kenpom, 14 in Sagarin, 15 in BPI
Going from
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NCAA Tournament Betting Recap: Duke dispatches Sparty, Florida sends Cinderella packing
03.30.2013 07:55 AM
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Stat Intelligence
The first half of Duke/Michigan State went pretty much the way you would expect. Duke had to hit treys to compete. Seth Curry was 6 of 7 all by himself in the first 20 minutes. Michigan State dominated the inside. Duke led thanks to their big edge in treys.
In the second half, Duke played very good inside defense while Michigan State kept forcing up bad shots. That led to a 13 minute dry spell that saw the Spartans only make one field goal from about 17 minutes left to about 4 minutes left. Academic after that. I usually blast Duke’s inside defense. They really did a good job here of blocking shots and denying good looks when it mattered down the stretch.
Duke 71, Michigan State 61
2-Point Percentage: Michigan State 45%, Duke 42%
3-Point Shooting: Michigan State 3/12, Duke 7/18
Free Throws: Michigan State 18/24, Duke 24/26
1’s and 2’s: Michigan State 52, Duke 50
Rebounds: Michigan State 33, Duke
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Duke Blue Devils
Michigan State Spartans
Florida Gators
Florida Gulf Coast Eagles
Stat Intelligence
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