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MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Texas Rangers at New York Yankees

06.28.2016     09:05 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC blog entry.
Texas (Hamels) -110 at New York (Sabathia) O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Texas

A lack of betting market respect has been commonplace with the Texas Rangers with +30 units in the bank despite being 33 games over .500. Cole Hamels has been exceptional over his last three starts allowing just two runs in 20.2 innings of work with Texas winning all three of those games. On the season, lefties have hit only .208 off of Hamels with a miniscule OPS of .630. New York has had a tough time offensively particularly against lefties with the 27th ranked slugging percentage (.386). On the flip side, C.C. Sabathia’s magical ride of a season came to a bit of a halt in this last outing as Colorado got him for 6 runs on 7 hits in 4.1 innings and he left that game with an ankle injury. The Yankees said he is good to go for this start but I’m left to wonder if maybe that rough outing is the beginning of a tailspin for an aging arm that is north of 3,000 innings and currently sporting the best numbers we’ve seen since 2011.  Also note that Texas has mashed lefties this season with the fourth-best OPS in the league. At a near pick ‘em price, Texas Read more

Tags: MLB Texas Rangers New York Yankees Ian Cameron

MLB Handicapping: Market has adjusted to increased home run rate

06.28.2016     08:55 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
Home runs have returned at a rate MLB hasn't seen since the Steroid Era. The league is on pace for 5,500 dingers -- the only two seasons to top that mark was in 1999 and 2000 when dudes like this mysteriously belted 35 bombs. From a betting perspective, the markets have adjusted. The league is trended over the total but at a modest 51.9%. Last season, there were 41 games lined at 6 or lower. This season, there have been only 10 at the halfway point.

Tags: MLB

Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: An early look at the NFC South

06.27.2016     09:11 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Continuing my summertime tour through the eight NFL divisions, this week, I’ll be taking an in-depth look at the four NFC South teams.  As always, teams are listed in alphabetical order within the division.

The Atlanta Falcons (lined at 7 or 7.5 wins for 2016, depending on the book) went 6-1 SU to open the season last year, but stumbled down the stretch with a 2-7 finish, finishing the season with an improved, yet still disappointing 8-8 SU record.  They were money losers (6-10 ATS, including a 2-10 slide to close out the campaign) despite their two win improvement from 2014 to 2015.  That came on the heels of a two win improvement (from four to six victories) from 2013 to 2014. 

The Falcons mainstream stats show one clear weakness from 2015, despite facing one of the easier scheduled in the NFL last year.  Their 30 giveaways ranked among the bottom five teams in the NFL at avoiding turnovers.  They finished +0.0 yards per play, (obviously) right at the league average with the #7 ranked offense and the #16 ranked defense based on yardage numbers.   Both coordinators return from last year’s Read more

Tags: NFL Atlanta Falcons Carolina Panthers Tampa Bay Buccaneers New Orleans Saints Teddy Covers

MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: San Diego Padres at Cincinnati Reds

06.24.2016     10:11 AM     Drew Martin     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Drew Martin blog entry.
San Diego (Rea) at Cincinnati (Reed)
Recommendation: 1st 5 inning Under 5

The Cincinnati Reds host the San Diego Padres for the second game of a four-game series. The Padres took the first game last night 7-4. Both teams are dealing with key injuries to the lineup and both are throwing young promising starting pitchers tonight. The Reds send Cody Reed the hill for his second MLB start. Reed allowed four earned runs in seven innings in his first outing. The 23-year-old from Horn Lake, Miss., was a second-round pick in 2013 out of Northwest Mississippi Community College. “He’s a lefty with real good stuff,” Price said. “Very athletic. Fastball, slider, changeup. Extremely competitive. He just seems to me to be a guy who’s really comfortable in competition and doesn’t see an environment as being imposing as others would.” The 6-5 225-pound southpaw will be facing a San Diego lineup that may be shorthanded without Jon Jay, who hasn't played since being hit by a pitch on Sunday. Jay is still experiencing some soreness.On the other side, the Reds lineup might be without their best player, Joey Votto who was not in Read more

Tags: MLB San Diego Padres Cincinnati Reds Drew Martin

MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Philadelphia Phillies at Minnesota Twins

06.22.2016     10:57 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Philadelphia (Morgan) at Minnesota (Gibson) -165 O/U 9
Recommendation: Over

To say that the Twins have been trending Over of late is something of an understatement.  Minnesota is 14-1-1 to the Over in their last 16 ballgames.  My clients and I have been cashing betting the Twins Over repeatedly during that span, and tonight’s game has all the makings of another high scoring slugfest.  Here’s why: In most sports, what happens in one game doesn’t matter all that much when it comes to the next game, with the just concluded NBA or NHL Playoffs standing out as prime recent examples.  But when it comes to MLB totals, there is clearly a correlative effect from one game to the next.

Hot lineups stay hot until proven otherwise.  A series of poor outings from a starting pitching staff will result in tired, overworked bullpens that throw gas on fires, as opposed to putting them out.  And when you put those two factors together – a hot lineup and some bad pitching – you’ve got the Minnesota Twins right now!

When an MLB team wins 14 out of 16 games, they’ll be one of the Read more

Tags: MLB Philadelphia Phillies Minnesota Twins Teddy Covers

MLB newest league to consider Las Vegas for expansion

06.22.2016     08:42 AM     Printer Friendly blog entry.
What is with everyone wanting to set up shop with a professional sports team in Las Vegas? The NHL is giving it a go, the Oakland Raiders are efforting, and now MLB is saying it "would not disqualify" Sin City -- whatever that means.

“I think the whole, ‘You can’t go to Vegas because there are casinos there,’ we passed that by a long time ago. There’s casinos all over the place. I see Las Vegas as a viable alternative. I would not disqualify it just because of the gambling issue.”

Tags: MLB NHL NFL Las Vegas

MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Seattle Mariners at Detroit Tigers

06.21.2016     07:54 AM     Otto Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Otto Sports blog entry.
Seattle (Paxton) at Detroit (Verlander) -130 O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Under

The buy sign appears to be on Seattle's James Paxton who has looked very sharp over his last three starts. Paxton's velocity is way up (mid-90's) which has his strikeout rate just below 12 per nine innings. He's also managed to improve his command with a respectable six walks over 22 innings. Despite command and mechanical issues throughout his career, Paxton still flashes an impressive 3.13 ERA over 187 innings. After a slow start to the year, Justin Verlander has found his stride -- and his ability to miss bats with 64 strikeouts over his last 58.1 innings. He's no doubt been a bit fortunate with only 75 hits allowed in 93 innings, but he's pitched like a middle-of-the-rotation arm for much of the season and I don't see any major "red flags" that scream serious regression at this point. What should also help both starters tonight is umpire Mark Ripperger who over last four seasons has produced nearly 61% unders over a 74 game sample. In 13 games behind the dish this season, his games have averaged only 5.6 runs. We'll look that way for tonight's contest with 8.5 Read more

Tags: MLB Seattle Mariners Detroit Tigers OTTO Sports

MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros

06.20.2016     01:45 PM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno blog entry.
Los Angeles (Chacin) at Houston (Fister) O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Houston -1.5 R/L

Houston is now gaining some traction going 17-8 in its last 25 games and creeping to within 2.5 games of second place Seattle in the AL West and 4.5 games of the AL's second Wild Card spot. Part of the recent surge is due to the pitching of tonight’s starter Doug Fister who has now rattled off six quality starts in his last seven appearances including four straight heading into this game. Over this 44.1 IP span, Fister has gone 4-0 with a 2.23 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. Three weeks ago he faced this Angels team in Anaheim and went 6 innings allowing just 1 earned run. Countering Fister will be Jhoulys Chacin who outings lately have gone in the opposite direction. After closing out May with three quality starts in four trips to the mound, Chacin has pitched poorly in June recording a 7.04 ERA, 1.83 WHIP with eight walks and only six strikeouts. Expect the Astros strikeout prone lineup to feast on Chacin’s pitch to contact trend while Fister tames the LA lineup. Each bullpen is thoroughly rested but Houston carries a major advantage in that category since the Angels Read more

Tags: MLB Los Angeles Angels Houston Astros Rob Veno

MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Texas Rangers at St. Louis Cardinals

06.17.2016     10:55 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers blog entry.
Texas (Hamels) at St. Louis (Wacha) -108 O/U 8
Recommendation: Over

Cole Hamels has had one fatal flaw this season that has doomed his chances of cashing many Under bets.  Hamels has been flying Over the total with regularity – six of his last seven starts have cashed Over tickets.  A pitcher with a career home run to fly ball ratio of 11.4% has seen that percentage nearly double to 22.7% this year.

Hamels has allowed 15 dingers in 83 innings of work this year.  To put that number in perspective, he had allowed only 36 home runs in 417 innings of work over the previous three seasons.  Of 99 pitchers with enough innings to qualify, Hamels home run rate ranks dead last in the majors here in 2016.

It’s surely worth noting that Hamels walks per nine innings is also at a career high this season – clearly, the home runs are making him hesitant to throw strikes; bad news against the patient, potent Cardinals lineup that has pounded out five runs or more in seven of their last ten contests.

But Michael Wacha is not a trustworthy hurler tonight either.  Wacha has been an Over machine all Read more

Tags: MLB Texas Rangers St. Louis Cardinals Teddy Covers

MLB Handicapper Free Betting Pick: Los Angeles Angels at Oakland A's

06.17.2016     09:13 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC blog entry.
Los Angeles (Shoemaker) -135 at Oakland (Graveman) O/U 8
Recommendation: Los Angeles

We have bet against Kendall Graveman a handful of times in the past and will continue that trend this evening in Oakland. The A's are just 3-9 in his 12 starts and after starting the season off strong with three solid outings, he's been one of the most hittable pitchers in baseball. Over his last nine starts (43.2 IP), Graveman has allowed 66 hits, nine home runs, and sports a dismal 32-19 K-to-BB ratio. The Angels will send a resurgent Matt Shoemaker to the mound. Shoemaker has incorporated more off-speed pitches into his repertoire and it's resulted in just eight runs allowed over his last 38.1 innings of work. That also includes a ridiculous ratio of 48 strikeouts to only one walk during that span. His swinging strike rate this season has jumped up from 9.1% to 14.2% thanks to a split finger that grades out as one of the best pitches in baseball. Consider this: Last season Shoemaker's season-high for swinging strikes in a start was 14. Over his last five starts he's AVERAGED over 20. The betting markets have obviously caught wind of Shoemaker's recent dominance, Read more

Tags: MLB Los Angeles Angels Oakland A's Ian Cameron


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