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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: How to bet NFL Season O/U Wins Part I

08.03.2015     10:33 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
When looking at the entirety of the NFL futures market, Super Bowl odds and odds to win divisions or conferences only give bettors one choice – betting ON a particular team.  Then that team has to beat out all of their competition to win the division/conference/Super Bowl for you to cash, offering the potential for big payday longshot returns, but cashing a low percentage of the wagers that are made.

NFL Season O/U Win totals, on the other hand, offer bettors the opportunity to bet AGAINST teams in relatively low juice situations.  And with win totals, even when betting Overs, the team you are betting on doesn’t have to win anything big. 

For example, the Buffalo Bills didn’t win their division last year; unable to get past mighty New England.  They didn’t win the AFC or the Super Bowl.  But they cashed every Over ticket that was bet on their season win total before December rolled around.  Buffalo’s 9-7 campaign offered a no sweat positive return-on-investment for a squad lined at 6.5 or 7 wins prior to the season.

In my opinion, NFL win totals remain among the most profitable set of wagers Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers Las Vegas




NFL Gambling Update: Brady suspended first four games of regular season

07.28.2015     02:31 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Looks like the New England Patriots really won't have Tom Brady the first four games of the regular season (vs. Pittsburgh, at Buffalo, vs. Jacksonville, and at Dallas). The NFL announced today that the suspension was upheld. As a result, there isn't much in the way of betting options for New England's Week 1 game vs. the Steelers. CRIS never posted a line. Pinnacle, Heritage, and 5Dimes took it down in early July (New England -3). As of today, CG Technology looks to be the only sportsbooks offering a real pointspread with the Patriots dropped from -3-120 to -1.5 following the news.


"The Commissioner's decision is deeply disappointing, but not surprising because the appeal process was thoroughly lacking in procedural fairness," Brady's agent, Don Yee, said Tuesday. "Most importantly, neither Tom nor the Patriots did anything wrong. And the NFL has no evidence that anything inappropriate occurred. The appeal process was a sham, resulting in the Commissioner rubber-stamping his own decision."






Tags: NFL New England Patriots




NFL Handicapping: No word on Brady's suspension; Patriots jump to -3 vs. Steelers

07.07.2015     08:57 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The 4th of July holiday weekend came and went and still no word on Tom Brady's suspension. Most suspected the NFL would "dump" it last Friday when no one was looking. Instead, bettors remain left in the dark as to how many games Brady will be suspended. As of now, it's still four games which means he's out for Week 1's Thursday night affair against Pittsburgh. After sitting at -2.5 for a month and a half, the Patriots have seen enough action to push the line to -3 at nearly every offshore and Las Vegas sportsbook.




Tags: NFL New England Patriots Pittsburgh Steelers




NFL Gambling Update: Brady-less Patriots settle in at -2.5 for Week 1 vs. Steelers

05.18.2015     02:46 PM     Printer Friendly
UPDATE

Now that everyone has had a chance to return their heart rate to normal following the announcement that Tom Brady will be suspended for the first four games of the regular season (could be less following his obligatory appeal), a handful of offshore and Las Vegas sportsbooks have posted bettable lines for Week 1's game vs. Pittsburgh. Here's what we got...

Pinnacle: New England -2.5 O/U N/A
5Dimes: New England -2.5 O/U 49
BetOnline: New England -2.5 O/U 48.5
CG (Cantor): New England -2.5 O/U 49.5
Westgate (LVH): New England -2.5 O/U 49
Golden Nugget/Stations: New England -2 O/U 49





NFL Handicapping: Betting markets react to Brady suspension

05.12.2015     07:19 AM     Read more



Tags: NFL New England Patriots Pittsburgh Steelers




NFL Handicapping: Betting markets react to Brady suspension

05.12.2015     07:19 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
No shock to see some betting market chaos following the announcement of Tom Brady's four-game suspension. Not only did it impact the Week 1 and Game of the Year lines but futures odds as well. A few Las Vegas oddsmakers chime in with what they feel Brady is worth to the pointspread. Cantor (CG Gaming) is one of the few sportsbooks currently offering a line of New England's Week 1 game vs. Pittsburgh. They reopened the game Patriots -1 and it was bet up to -1.5. The game originally opened -6.5.


The adjustments “are not enough,” The Wynn’s John Avello told The Linemakers on Sporting News. “I could see it as a pick or even the Steelers as the favorites.”






Tags: NFL New England Patriots




NFL Gambling Update: Steelers-Patriots a pick 'em if Brady suspended

05.11.2015     07:50 AM     Printer Friendly
UPDATE


According to various media reports it's likely that Tom Brady will be suspended for his "role" in Deflategate. Every sportsbook offering a Week 1 line took New England's game against Pittsburgh off the board. The Patriots were around -6.5 but if Brady is suspended, Westgate SuperBook oddsmaker Jay Kornegay said the game would likely reopen around a pick 'em.




NFL Gambling News: Bettors, sportsbooks react to Wells Report findings

05.07.2015     08:22 AM     View Original Blog


With the Read more



Tags: NFL New England Patriots Pittsburgh Steelers




NFL Gambling News: Bettors, sportsbooks react to Wells Report findings

05.07.2015     08:22 AM     Printer Friendly
With the Deflategate files now public there are rumblings that Tom Brady should/will be suspended in some capacity. It didn't take long for bettors to jump in on the New England's Week 1 opponent, Pittsburgh. It also didn't take long for sportsbooks to take the game off the board. Check out 5Dimes' line history...

copy_pats_steelers_2015.JPG




Tags: NFL New England Patriots Pittsburgh Steelers




NFL Handicapping: 2015-16 Regular Season Over/Under Win totals

02.19.2015     08:53 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
2015-16 NFL Regular Season Over/Under Win totals courtesy of CG Technology.


New England: 11
Seattle: 11

Green Bay: 10.5

Denver: 10

Dallas: 9.5
Indianapolis: 9.5

Baltimore: 9
New Orleans: 9
Philadelphia: 9

Atlanta: 8.5
Buffalo: 8.5
Carolina: 8.5
Cincinnati: 8.5
Detroit: 8.5
Houston: 8.5
Kansas City: 8.5
Pittsburgh: 8.5
San Diego: 8.5
San Francisco: 8.5

Arizona: 8
Miami: 8
N.Y. Giants: 8

St. Louis: 7.5

Chicago: 7

Minnesota: 6.5
N.Y. Jets: 6.5

Cleveland: 6
Washington: 6

Jacksonville: 5.5

Tampa Bay: 5
Tennessee: 5

Oakland: 4.5






Tags: NFL




Super Bowl XLIX Gambling: New England and Over not a good outcome for Vegas sportsbooks

02.02.2015     07:43 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Early indications suggest that New England's win over Seattle was not an ideal result for Las Vegas' sportsbooks.


“I don’t know what everyone else thought but I was sitting with 11 guys and 11 guys didn’t say a word,” Bogdanovich described the scene in William Hill’s war room. “We just sat there with our jaws dropped. It’s just dumb that they wouldn’t run Marshawn Lynch.”

“That was our one losing scenario,” said Nick Bogdanovich, William Hill sports books’ director of trading. “We had a big start with the futures, so it’s going to be close but the game couldn’t have been worse.”






Tags: NFL Super Bowl XLIX New England Patriots Seattle Seahawks




Super Bowl XLIX Gambling: Late money comes in on Seattle Seahawks

02.01.2015     09:02 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Here are the top consensus bets (side, total, and moneyline) for Super Bowl XLIX courtesy of Bookmaker. After spending much of the last two weeks as a 1-point favorite, the New England Patriots find themselves as the underdog at a number of offshore sportsbooks. There's been strong push towards the Seattle Seahawks over the last 24 hours. In Las Vegas, nearly every shop has the game as a pick 'em. The total sits 47/47.5 offshore while a few 48's remain in Vegas (Wynn, Mirage, and Coasts). Note that the percentages are based on the number of bets made not total handle.

SIDE
66.5% - New England +1

TOTAL
57.6% - Over 47

MONEYLINE
72.5% - New England +100




Tags: NFL New England Patriots Seatte Seahawks Super Bowl XLIX



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Ian Cameron, Drew Martin, and Alex B. Smith. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Podcast Monday-Friday at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Podcast?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's podcast archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, CFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Aug 25, 2016 06:31 PM.