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October

21

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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: AFC Super Bowl Contenders

11.25.2013     07:54 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Last week, I took a break from the typical team notes column that I’ve been writing here in the Vegas Wiseguy Report since the start of the NFL season, focusing on NFC Playoff Contenders. I’ll finish that thought process this week, turning my focus towards the AFC.

I had a spirited debate with a fairly well known professional bettor on Sunday Night after the games were finished. We were both having the same problem; trying to figure out somebody – anybody – in the AFC worthy of support down the stretch as a Super Bowl contender. Frankly, there aren’t a whole lot of choices, and our debate primarily consisted of finding fatal flaws in whatever team the other guy brought up.

My power rating numbers have seven of the top ten teams in the NFL residing in the NFC (Seattle, New Orleans, San Francisco, Carolina, Arizona, Dallas and Detroit). An eighth team could join that group after Aaron Rodgers gets healthy for Green Bay.  And all three of those supposedly elite level AFC teams have problems, which is why I included a fourth contender in my discussion below.

Six AFC teams sit at 5-6 right now, tied for the final Wild Card Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




Monday Night Football Betting Recap: Carolina slips past New England

11.19.2013     08:31 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

It definitely had the feel of a playoff game…matching two teams who are clearly playoff caliber right now. A lot of those go right down to the wire. You watched. You know the tightrope wire this game was walking in the final minutes. Let’s see the numbers…

Carolina 24 (-3), New England 20

New England: 390 yards, 5.8 per-play, 2 turnovers, 50% third downs

Carolina: 300 yards, 5.6 per-play, 0 turnovers, 73% third downs

Other Numbers

Rushing Yards: New England 107, Carolina 103

Passing Stats: New England 29-40-1-283, Carolina 19-28-0-197

Drive Points: New England 14, Carolina 24

Stat Score: New England 22, Carolina 18

Sloppiness: New England 21, Carolina 9

Pace: 139 plays + penalties + punts + field goal attempts (extreme clock eating)

Another game where both teams moved the ball very effectively in a slow-motion “take what the defense gives Read more


Tags: NFL New England Patriots Carolina Panthers Stat Intelligence




NFL Handicapping: New England preps for Carolina's Cam Newton

11.14.2013     07:19 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
New England at Carolina -2.5 O/U 45.5

Good article on New England's preperation for mobile quarterbacks. The Patriots take on Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers on Monday Night Football. 


"I do [like practicing against Tebow]," Wilfork said. "There might be some times this year that we have to face a quarterback like that. He brings a whole different aspect to the game for us, being able to play against a guy who can run that type of offense is a plus for this team. Not just Tim being here, but it's a plus for this defense because we have to be able to stop some teams that come out and do that to us."

We knew coming into the season this was going to be an area we needed to make sure that we had enough defense for and we spent enough time so our players understood their different responsibilities with this type of Read more



Tags: NFL New England Patriots Carolina Panthers




NFL Betting News and Notes - Week 10

11.13.2013     08:27 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The red hot Carolina Panthers
The Carolina Panthers are the hottest team in the NFL both SU and ATS following their 10-9 victory as 6-point underdogs at San Francisco. Carolina is on a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS roll with wins over Minnesota, St. Louis, Tampa Bay, Atlanta and the 49ers. As a result oddsmakers and the betting markets have been forced to adjust as we see the Panthers favored by -2.5 (with juice) for Monday night’s game against New England. Note that Carolina was a small home underdog to the New York Giants back in Week 3 prior to the start of their winning streak. And when Cantor Gaming released its summer lines, the Patriots (who come in off of a bye) were field goal chalk.

The Denver Broncos Over train finally stops chugging
One of the strongest betting trends of the season finally saw its unblemished streak come to an end as Denver’s 28-20 win over San Diego last week fell 10 points short of the closing line.  The thing that stuck out to me in that contest was the fair amount of improvement from Denver’s defense. The Broncos held the Chargers to just 329 total yards which is well under their Read more


Tags: NFL Carolina Panthers New England Patriots Denver Broncos Kansas City Chiefs Ian Cameron




NFL Handicapping: Drive Point Averages Week 9

11.01.2013     07:05 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Got to these quicker than I expected, so I rushed them right up. If you’re new to the site, Drive Points are those scored and allowed only on drives of 60 yards or more. We don’t count defensive scores, special teams scores, or any listed drive at 59 yards or less from the drive charts or itemized scoring drives at the major websites. What you see below are per-game averages. I put them in market rotation order so you can jot them down in your schedule and have them handy through the weekend (you could also print them out of course).

Atlanta: 15.1 on offense, 18.0 on defense

Carolina: 13.9 on offense,  8.7 on defense

(People have noticed that Atlanta’s losing, but I haven’t heard a lot of media criticism about how bad their defense has been playing. They’re lucky they’re not a New York team. Great defense from Carolina)

Minnesota: 14.1 on offense, 20.0 on Read more


Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




NFL Gambling Preview: Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots

10.31.2013     12:06 PM     Alatex Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Alatex Sports

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Pittsburgh at New England
Sunday, 1:25 pm PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
New England -7 O/U 43
CRIS Current: New England -6 O/U 43
Rob Veno's Power Rating: New England -8
Brent Crow's Recommendation: Pittsburgh

In years past this would have likely been the marquee game of the week with the success these two franchises have had. In fact, of the last ten AFC championship games, nine have featured Pittsburgh, New England or both.

This year, they are both trying to rebuild and do not resemble the high powered teams the NFL is used to seeing. New England has somehow managed to win six of its eight games with Tom Brady having his worst season ever thanks mostly to a lack of experienced weapons. The Steelers meanwhile have struggled to a 2-5 mark and have had trouble on both sides of the ball, with their trademark defense being the biggest culprit, especially against the run.

Steelers’ coach Mike Tomlin Read more


Tags: NFL Pittsburgh Steelers New England Patriots Brent Crow




NFL Betting News and Notes - Week 8

10.30.2013     07:38 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Welcome to a sportsbooks worst nightmare
This was not the week to be a bookmaker. The public, which tends to bet favorites and overs, had a grand time in Week 8. Favorites went 8-5 ATS and totals were also 8-5 O/U. Thankfully, sportsbooks got the desired result on Monday night when the Rams and under both cashed but it still didn’t prevent an overall tough week for the books. Four of the biggest public teams in the NFL – all favorites – overcame sluggish starts to grab pointspread covers: New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, Green Bay Packers and Denver Broncos – and three of the four games involving those teams sailed over the total. This is just more proof that it is no longer safe nor practical to simply fade the public. The public doesn’t always lose and it is something that bettors must understand as they attempt to beat the NFL.

The risk of overreacting
It’s easy to overreact to results in the NFL. It happens all the time and even I find myself guilty of doing so. I’ve singled out the Monday night game that likely shocked many bettors when the Seattle Seahawks not only failed Read more


Tags: NFL Seattle Seahawks St. Louis Rams New England Patriots Ian Cameron




NFL Gambling News: Steelers' o-line goes from bad to worse

10.28.2013     11:11 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Pittsburgh at New England -7 O/U 44

An already bad offensive line got hit with a bunch of injuries as Pittsburgh lost three linemen during Sunday's loss at Oakland. Amazingly, the Steelers have gone 15 straight games without a 100-yard rusher.




Tags: NFL Pittsburgh Steelers New England Patriots




NFL Gambling Preview: New York Jets at Cincinnati Bengals

10.27.2013     07:10 AM     ER Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ER Sports

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
New York Jets at Cincinnati
Sunday, 1:05 pm PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
Cincinnati -7 O/U 40
CRIS Current: Cincinnati -4.5 O/U 41
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Cincinnati -9
Erin Rynning's Recommendation: Cincinnati

The Cincinnati Bengals were impressive last week in their 27-24 win at Detroit.  Off to a 5-2 start, I have to give credit to this team that I’ve doubted at times this season.  This is a well-rounded bunch that ranks 12th in total offense and 9th in total defense. Offensively they’ve found ways to both throw and run the football.  The tight end play continues to be a difference maker, which opens the sidelines for AJ Green.  Andy Dalton is starting to make better decisions with the football, although the Bengals could still be more efficient – 22nd in points scored, but 12th in total yards.  Of course, the offensive line has played sturdy football as well, as left Read more


Tags: NFL New York Jets Cincinnati Bengals Erin Rynning




NFL Gambling Preview: Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots

10.23.2013     12:14 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Miami at New England
Sunday, 10 am PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
New England -7 (+101) O/U 45.5
CRIS Current: New England -6.5 O/U 44.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: New England -7
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Miami

The New England Patriots are a very different team now compared to where they were a month ago.  The biggest difference between the Pats now and when they started the season 4-0 is a barrage of injuries on the defensive side of the football.  After four weeks of play, the Patriots D looked like an elite level unit; ranked among the league leaders in nearly every significant statistical category.  But they’ve been torched by the Jets and Saints for 57 points and more than 750 yards in their last two ballgames.

Perennial pro bowl defensive tackle Vince Wilfork tore his Achilles; out for the year.  His counterpart at defensive tackle, veteran Tommy Kelly hasn’t been able to suit Read more


Tags: NFL Miami Dolphins New England Patriots Teddy Covers



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