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November

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College Football Handicapping: Early line moves for Week 5

09.25.2013     07:36 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Let’s take a look at some of the early line moves for this week’s college football action.

UConn at Buffalo
CRIS Opener: UConn -2.5
CRIS Current: Buffalo -1
Comment: Buffalo comes in off of a bye week. UConn hung tough against Michigan but a lot of it had to do with the Wolverines committing four turnovers.

UAB at Vanderbilt
CRIS Opener: Vanderbilt -23
CRIS Current: Vanderbilt -19.5
Comment: Oddsmakers and bettors don't seem to be on the same page when it comes to the Commodores. Last week against UMass, Vandy opened -36, closed -29 and the Minutemen covered rather easily.

Iowa at Minnesota
CRIS Opener: Minnesota -3.5
CRIS Current: Iowa -1
Comment: Gophers off to a strong 4-0 start but have yet to be tested. If Minny goes off as the favorite it will mark the first time doing so vs. a Big Ten opponent since 2009.

Arizona at Washington
CRIS Opener: Washington -7
CRIS Current: Washington -10
Comment: Arizona comes in off a bye week but has played arguably the softest schedule in the country: Northern Arizona, Read more


Tags: College Football Andrew Lange




College Football Handicapping: Estimated Power Ratings as of 9/24/2013

09.24.2013     12:02 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I think most of you reading this know the drill by now. What you see below is my estimate of how “the market” has college football teams rated at this point in the season. And, by “the market,” I mean the combination of oddsmakers and sharps (leaving out the often-misguided public as best as possible). These are based on the current pointspreads at writing time, allotting 3 points for home field advantage.

This isn’t how I personally rate the teams. It’s my estimate of “market Power Ratings” if they existed in a tangible form.

An early number came up in Las Vegas last week for a hypothetical matchup between Alabama and Oregon. That line was Alabama -3, which represents how oddsmakers would rate the game. What would sharps do once big limits were available on a game like that? My scale estimates that sharps would take Oregon. They seem to be betting Oregon hand over fist this year…and Alabama is struggling to play Read more


Tags: College Football Stat Intelligence




NFL Betting Recap: Denver Broncos drill Oakland Raiders

09.24.2013     07:59 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Numbers and notes from Denver’s easy win over Oakland…

Denver 37 (-16), Oakland 21

Oakland: 342 yards, 6.7 per-play, 1 turnovers, 42% third downs

Denver : 536 yards, 7.3 per-play, 3 turnovers, 56% third downs

Other Numbers

Rushing Yards: Oakland 49, Denver 164

Passing Stats: Oakland 21-31-0-293, Denver 32-37-0-372

Drive Points: Oakland 14, Denver 21

Stat Score: Oakland 17, Denver 31

Sloppiness: Oakland 15, Denver 10

Pace Factor: 147 (offensive plays…plus penalties…plus punts…plus FG attempts)

You can tell that Peyton Manning was doing whatever he wanted to. What a passing line! His teammates kept fumbling the ball away. That plus some relaxation from the defense is how a 30-7 third quarter clubbing turned into a finish that put the game near the Vegas spread. Oakland’s offensive numbers were helped by that extended garbage time. Read more


Tags: NFL Oakland Raiders Denver Broncos Stat Intelligence




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: NFC News and Notes from Week 3

09.23.2013     07:43 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Welcome to Teddy’s unique look at the NFL. Teddy watches games all day on Sunday, typing furiously on his laptop while giving you the key info that the box scores and game recaps don’t necessarily have. This week, Teddy took a long, hard look at five NFC teams that have been major disappointments to start the year.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Doug Martin had 144 yards on the ground last week and the Bucs still only scored a single offensive touchdown and lost the game. Today, with Martin largely contained (longest carry 11 yards), the offense only managed a single field goal and lost the game. After leading the league in penalties through the first two games, the Bucs were only flagged four times here, but that’s about the only bright spot from this performance.

Injuries are becoming a huge story with this team. They came into this game missing three starters from opening day in their secondary, forced to start a safety who was on their practice squad last week. Their lone playmaker, WR Vincent Jackson left the game with bruised ribs. His counterpart on the other side, Mike Williams had a clear limp all afternoon. Pro bowl Read more


Tags: NFL Tampa Bay Buccaneers New York Giants San Francisco 49ers New York Giants St. Louis Rams Teddy Covers




NFL Handicapping: Pace Factor through Week 3

09.23.2013     07:36 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Following up on our discussion from earlier this week, here are the play totals (runs, passes, accepted penalties, punts, field goal attempts) from Sunday afternoon NFL games (plus KC/Philly from Thursday). I’ll rank them from fastest paced to slowest paced. First, the boundaries we’ve seen so far in the first two weeks...

Fastest: 187 (Baltimore at Denver, with two fast teams in season opener)

Midpoint: 158

Slowest: 134 (Oakland at Indianapolis)

This Week

192: Buffalo at NY Jets (new high, Bills floundered fast, Jets a million penalties)

178: Cleveland at Minnesota (fourth fastest in NFL this season)

171: Kansas City at Philadelphia

169: Detroit at Washington

159: Tampa Bay at New England

157: Houston at Baltimore

154: Jacksonville at Seattle

152: Green Bay at Cincinnati

149: San Diego at Tennessee

149: Arizona at New Orleans (Saints continue to Read more


Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




College Football Betting News and Notes - Week 4

09.23.2013     07:21 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
It is usually Boise State who sits back and capitalizes on other teams' mistakes not the other way around. Friday's game against Fresno was one of the more sloppy games I've ever seen out of the Broncos yet they somehow covered the number (+3.5) and had a chance to win the game outright. Down 17-10 early in the second quarter, Boise scored a touchdown but failed on a mysterious two-point conversion (note that the final score was 41-40). Miss one two-point conversion and you're likely to go for two again at some point. Midway through the fourth quarter the Broncos cut the lead to 34-32 and had yet another failed two-point conversion. On their next drive they finally cracked the code and put eight on the board but it put them up only six. Fresno would score a touchdown with three minutes left to give them the 41-40 lead for good. All told, Boise was 1-for-3 on two-point conversions, 1-for-4 on fourth down conversions, and committed two turnovers. Happy to kick PATs, Fresno had no turnovers, was 2-for-2 on fourth downs, and moved to 3-0 on the season.

It is hard for serious bettors to be active in laying huge points because there are typically more factors involved than Read more


Tags: College Football Andrew Lange




College Football Betting Preview: Colorado State Rams at Alabama Crimson Tide

09.20.2013     10:47 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Colorado State at Alabama
Saturday, 4 pm PT - ESPN2
CRIS Opener:
Alabama -36.5 O/U 51.5
CRIS Current: Alabama -39 O/U 51
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Alabama -39.5
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Colorado State

I’m not a big fan of betting on the big ugly underdog in college football, but this situation is simply too good to ignore.  Alabama has been a pointspread juggernaut throughout the Nick Saban era in every role except one – as a 30+ point favorite over lesser competition. 

The Crimson Tide are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven tries in this pointspread range, including an 0-4 mark last year.  Coming off a HUGE win at Texas A&M with their SEC opener against Ole Miss on deck, I’m not expecting an inspired performance from this huge home favorite.

Colorado State head coach Jim McElwain got the job at Colorado State because of his success as Read more


Tags: College Football Colorado State Rams Mountain West Alabama Crimson Tide SEC Teddy Covers




College Football Betting Preview: Auburn Tigers at LSU Tigers

09.20.2013     07:13 AM     Alatex Sports     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Alatex Sports

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Auburn at LSU
Saturday, 4:45 pm PT - ESPN
CRIS Opener:
LSU -14 O/U 57
CRIS Current: LSU -16.5 O/U 55
Rob Veno's Power Rating: LSU -19
Brent Crow's Recommendation: LSU

Auburn has used a very favorable schedule to get off to a 3-0 start under first-year head coach Gus Mahlzan. The Tigers’ victories have come against Washington State, Arkansas State and Mississippi State; none of which are anywhere near the class of this week’s opponent. The fast start has calmed down the Auburn fans after last year’s disaster under Gene Chizik. While three wins is definitely better than three losses, I am not sure there is much difference between this year’s team and last year’s group. The defense is still a big question mark as Auburn has allowed at least 400 yards of offense in all three wins to offenses that have been subpar otherwise. They were able to force three turnovers against Read more


Tags: College Football Auburn Tigers LSU Tigers SEC Brent Crow




Thursday Night Football Betting Recap: Six Turnovers doom Philadelphia Eagles

09.20.2013     06:52 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Three weeks into the Chip Kelly era with the Philadelphia Eagles…and we’ve seen one half of mostly scintillating stuff (coming against an opponent that may not have a pass defense), but then five halves that have reminded everyone why it’s so hard to win with fast break football at the professional level.

First Half of Game One: Philadelphia 26, Washington 7

Next 5 Halves Pro-Rated: Philadelphia 11, Opponents 16

That’s an extended run now that represents the equivalent of losing games 32-22 against 2.5 opponents that may not reach the postseason (though KC has a decent Wildcard shot after its 3-0 start).

The Eagles are 1-2, and apparently would be the fourth best team in the AFC West because they just lost home games to San Diego and Kansas City…and are way behind Denver in everyone’s Power Ratings. They do have moments where the Oregon-style attack is a thing of beauty. But, tonight saw:

*Michael Vick throw two Read more


Tags: NFL Philadelphia Eagles Kansas City Chiefs Stat Intelligence




College Football Betting: Will Wake Forest's under the total trend continue?

09.19.2013     07:10 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
For many teams across the nation, 25% of their season is already complete. Three weeks ago as fall practice sessions ended and teams began preparing for their season opening games, those of us who follow college football routinely had opinions set on all 126 FBS teams. Since teams only play 12 regular season games, the quarter pole has always been a time to proactively adjust to teams if need be or stay firm with initial judgments that were made. In this week’s article I’ll take a look at one team specifically from a totals perspective which has thus far performed differently than what the original outlook may have been.

It’s not that Wake Forest's schemes have turned into something we don’t associate with them. After all, this team has had the exact same on-field style for each of head coach Jim Grobe’s 12 seasons here. The difference right now is the extent to which their game scores have diminished. Through their first three games, Wake Forest totals have opened and closed as some of the lowest we’ve seen each week. To see closing totals of 51, 47.5 and 50 in this day and age can definitely be categorized as lower than average. Read more


Tags: College Football Wake Forest Demon Deacons ACC Rob Veno



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, Ian Cameron, and Paul Stone. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Nov 23, 2014 06:26 AM.