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MLB Handicapper Free Play: Chicago White Sox at St. Louis Cardinals
06.14.2012 02:00 PM
Teddy Covers
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers
Chicago WS
(Floyd) +115 at
St. Louis
(Westbrook) O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Chicago
St. Louis starter Jake Westbrook has been an absolute disaster area for a month now; 0-4 with an ERA approaching 8.00 in his last six starts while giving up 48 hits in just 31 innings of work. He’s been pitching with a cut on the middle finger of his throwing hand; a lingering issue that has clearly affected his mound presence. The Cardinals bullpen behind Westbrook has been struggling mightily, ranked in the bottom quartile of the majors in ERA, blown saves and losses. The White Sox had scored 25 runs in their previous three games prior to getting blanked last night – their high octane lineup has been clicking on all cylinders for weeks, ranked #6 out of 30 MLB teams in runs scored this year. There’s absolutely no reason to think that Chicago won’t be able to tee off on Westbrook and the bullpen behind him tonight; producing runs in bunches.
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Handicapper Teddy Covers on the difference between sharp and square bettors
06.11.2012 10:48 AM
Teddy Covers
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers
Last week, I wrote about the difference in expectations between wiseguy or “sharp” bettors – those who expect to earn a profit from sports betting over the long term – in comparison to recreational or “square” bettors. Here in Part 2 of the article this week, I’m going to examine some of the major differences between the two groups of bettors in terms of their approach and their respective strategies. What are wiseguy bettors doing that recreational bettors aren’t? Read on to find out!
Most casual bettors don’t make a profit from their sports betting hobby. This includes bettors who are relatively sharp as well as those who couldn’t pick a winner if their lives depended on it. That’s not a bad thing either – if every bettor won, sportsbooks would be going belly up and bettors would run out of places to play.
Much of the industry jargon considers money management as important as picking winners, if not more so. And it certainly is. But throwing around buzzwords like “money management” and describing esoteric concepts like “isolate a percentage of bankroll” and
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MLB Betting News: Texas pushes back Darvish's next start
06.11.2012 06:51 AM
Printer Friendly
Texas will
push back Yu Darvish's next start
two days to ensure he's receiving an ample amount of rest. He's tentatively slated to throw Friday against Houston. Lack of command has been Darvish's biggest problem with 44 walks in 72.2 innings. His ERA has climbed from 2.60 to 3.72 over his last four starts.
FanGraphs
pointed out that it is the teams seeing Darvish for a second time that have inflicted the most damage.
May 21st, @ SEA: 4 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 6 BB, 5 K
May 27th, vs TOR: 5 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 3 BB, 3 K
June 2nd, @LAA: 6.1 IP, 6 H, 3 R, 3 BB, 7 K
June 7th, @Oak: 5.1 IP, 6 H, 6 R, 6 BB, 4 K
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Texas Rangers
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MLB Gambling Trends: American League dominates interleague play
06.08.2012 07:57 AM
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Interleague play continues from June 8 through June 24, 2012 and the American League (AL) looks to continue their dominance over the National League (NL). Interleague play was introduced in 1997, and since 2004 the American League has dominated the senior circuit and posted a winning record every year. In those eight seasons, the AL is 1128-927 with over $10,000 in profit for a $100 bettor. Last season the AL went 134-125 vs. the NL but was a losing betting proposition overall yet AL home teams showed a slight profit. In 2012, the AL is 24-18 vs. the NL during May Interleague play.
A rare role in which you’ll find an American League team is a big road underdog vs. a National League opponent. They have been big profit producers during their 8-year run as +150 or more while also showing a winning record overall. On Friday, June 8 the Toronto Blue Jays are a +155 road ‘Dog at Atlanta.
In the opening series weekend beginning June 8, there are six match-ups in which the teams have played at least 10 times, including the subway series between the New York Yankees and New York Mets.
The Yankees are 25-22 vs. the Mets
The Rays are
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MLB Handicapping: Five home runs helps back-to-back games at Petco go OVER
06.07.2012 06:44 AM
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When a game goes over the total at Petco Park is usually isn't by much and rarely do we see two teams combine for double-digit runs. But the last two contests – against the weak hitting San Francisco Giants – have each produced 11 runs. And on five occasions during those two games the ball managed to leave the playing field in fair territory. There is a theory among bettors that Petco Park plays a bit more realistic during stretches when the "marine layer" isn't as strong. According to
one explanation
, this tends to happen during the day and later in the season. Just something to consider when playing Padres totals.
“In the simplest terms, when you’re close to the water, there’s more moisture in the air and the air is cooler,” said Miller. “The air becomes less dense with water in it, lighter than typical air molecules, so the ball can fly farther in the moister air. But when the marine layer moves in, like a big blob of cold air pouring over the stadium walls and onto the field, the air is more
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San Diego Padres
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Handicapper Teddy Covers' Wiseguy Report 6-4-2012
06.04.2012 11:27 AM
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I decided to give my weekly column a new name last week, calling it
Teddy’s Wiseguy Report
. I did this because I’ve been getting a boatload of questions about wiseguy bettors – the individuals and syndicates that legitimately do battle with the books with a steady diet of four and five figure bets. Wiseguys, also known as “sharps”, are guys who make their living beating the books and the betting markets.
In this week’s column, I’m going to explain the single biggest difference between the approach of wiseguy bettors compared to the vast majority of bettors here in Las Vegas and around the world – guys who are recreational players or “squares”. Next week, in Part 2 of this article, I’ll delve deeper into the contrasts between sports betting amateurs and sports betting professionals.
Most casual bettors don’t make a profit from their sports betting hobby. This includes bettors who are relatively sharp as well as those who couldn’t pick a winner if their lives depended on it. That’s not a horrible thing either – if every
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NFL goes small college conferences, AFL for replacement refs
06.04.2012 11:12 AM
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Does it excite you that the outcome of crucial late season game between the Ravens and Steelers could be in the hands of a Sun Belt back judge? Due to
unresolved contract negotiations
with the NFL's referee union, the league is has begun to look elsewhere for employees. And by employees, we don't mean handpicking the top refs from the Big Ten or SEC. BCS Conference refs are run by NFL officials and therefore off limits. We're talking about small college conference and arena football.
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College Football Handicapping: SEC conference schedules
05.30.2012 11:54 AM
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Scheduling in the SEC typically goes a long way in determining who prospers both straight up and against the spread. A well-timed bye week can do wonders while the second of back-to-back road games can spell disaster. With the addition of Texas A&M and Missouri, SEC schedules appear even more chaotic than in previous editions. No surprise that the league is already working to create a more
efficient format
for next year and beyond. Unlike the Big Ten which league-wide follows the non-conference-and-then-conference-play format, the SEC is all across the board. Some teams open up with league games in Week 1 while others won't see a conference opponent until Week 4. For some teams in the East, SEC regular season play is over by the first week in November while others like Mississippi State close out the year with five straight league games all the way through Thanksgiving weekend. Lastly, check out Texas A&M's inaugural SEC campaign. Talk about a wakeup call! The Aggies have a four-week stretch of games vs. LSU, at Auburn, at Mississippi State and at Alabama. Over/Under total
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College Football Handicapping: Big Ten conference schedules
05.30.2012 10:12 AM
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It is not even June so we'll refrain from any serious schedule analysis for the upcoming college football season. We will however be taking a look at various conference schedules over the next few weeks starting today with the Big Ten. Nebraska has a tough draw in terms of its opponents from the Leaders Division. The Cornhuskers face Ohio State, Wisconsin and Penn State and miss out on Illinois, Indiana and Purdue. Penn State meanwhile skips both Michigan schools and has winnable road games at Illinois and Purdue. The Nittany Lions also have homes games vs. Wisconsin, Ohio State and Northwestern. Ohio State was given no favors with matchups against Michigan, Michigan State and Nebraska out of the Legends Division. The Buckeyes also travel to Wisconsin and Penn State.
2012 Big Ten Conference Schedules
Legends
Big Ten Opponents
Iowa
vs. MIN, at MSU, vs. PSU, at NW, at IU, vs. PUR, at MICH, vs. NEB
Michigan
at PUR, vs. ILL, at NEB, at MIN, vs. NW, vs. IOWA, at OSU
Michigan State
vs. OSU, at IU, vs. IOWA, at MICH, at WIS, vs. NEB, vs. NW, at MIN
Minnesota
at IOWA, vs. NW, at WIS, vs. PUR, vs. MICH, at ILL, at NEB, vs. MSU
Nebraska
vs. WIS, at OSU, at NW, vs. MICH, at MSU, vs. PSU, vs. MIN, at IOWA
Northwestern
vs. IU, at PSU, at MIN, vs. NEB, vs. IOWA, at MICH, at MSU, vs. ILL
Leaders
Big Ten Opponents
Illinois
vs. PSU, at WIS, at MICH, vs. IU, at OSU, vs. MIN, vs. PUR, at NW
Indiana
at NW, vs. MSU, vs. OSU, at ILL, vs. IOWA, vs. UW, at PSU, at PUR
Ohio State
at MSU, vs. NEB, at IU, vs. PUR, at PSU, vs. ILL, at WIS, vs. MICH
Penn State
at ILL, vs. NW, at IOWA, vs. OSU, at PUR, at NEB, vs. IU, vs. WIS
Purdue
vs. MICH, vs. WIS, at OSU, at MIN, vs. PSU, at IOWA, at ILL, vs. IU
Wisconsin
at NEB, vs. ILL, at PUR, vs. MIN, vs. MSU, at IU, vs. OSU, at PSU
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Handicapper Teddy Covers talks NFL Regular Season Over/Under Win Totals
05.29.2012 06:54 AM
Teddy Covers
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Submitted by Teddy Covers
When I first moved to Las Vegas just prior to the start of the preseason in August 1998, NFL season win totals were just starting to pop up around town. By the early 2000’s, most sportsbooks in Vegas were posting NFL win totals by the time training camps opened in late July. Over the past five years, we’ve seen those NFL win totals get posted earlier and earlier – first early July, then June.
Here in 2012, the markets move earlier and more aggressively than ever. Some offshore sportsbooks posted win totals for the upcoming season within days of the Giants victory over the Patriots in the Super Bowl; albeit with very low limits. And here in Las Vegas, it was Christmas in May this past week when three major players – Cantor Gaming, MGM-Mirage and LVH – all released their 2012 NFL Regular Season Over/Under Win totals, with limits high enough to attract a nice chunk of wiseguy money.
Cantor was the first to market, and releasing their NFL win totals last Wednesday. As the first local shop to post numbers, with relatively high limits ($3K) that cater to sharp bettors, the action was fast and furious on the trading floor (or the betting
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Teddy Covers
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