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NFL Gambling Preview: Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts

12.13.2013     01:56 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Houston at Indianapolis
Sunday, 10 am PT - CBS
CRIS Opener:
Indianapolis -6.5 O/U 45.5
CRIS Current: Indianapolis -5 O/U 45.5
Rob Veno's Power Rating: Indianapolis -8
Teddy Covers' Recommendation: Indianapolis

The wiseguys here in Vegas absolutely despise the Colts; rare vitriol from professional bettors.  Why the abject hatred for Indy?  Simple – Indy’s stats are lousy, just like they were last year; yet the Colts are on a 16-8 ATS run in their last 24 ballgames.  In other words, the sharp $$ has been fading Indy for two years and consistently losing those bets; a mounting source of frustration.

Those same wiseguys have cashed betting against the Colts three times in their last five games; blowout losses against the Rams, Cardinals and Bengals.  And we’re seeing heavy money pour in on Houston, against Indy again this week; giving us a very favorable line to support Read more



Tags: NFL Houston Texans Indianapolis Colts Teddy Covers




NFL Handicapping: Drive Point Averages Week 15

12.12.2013     11:45 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

What you see below are per-game averages on offense and defense for points scored and allowed on drives of 60 yards or more. That's a stat I've been keeping myself by hand from itemized scoring drives in boxscores ever since the USA Today started publishing them many years ago. In the first parenthesis are strength of schedule rankings from Jeff Sagarin at USA Today and Football Outsiders (in that order, and, largely converging now). In the second parenthesis is turnover differential. Games are presented in market rotation order. I tried to line up the numbers as best as possible by abbreviating some of the team cities…

Thursday

San Diego: 14.6 on offense, 16.1 on defense (19-31) (-3 turnovers)

Denver : 23.3 on offense, 15.0 on defense (20-29) (-2 turnovers)

Football Outsiders has mentioned somewhere that San Diego supposedly has one of the five worst defenses in the history of their stat methodology. I mean…it’s pretty Read more



Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




College Football Betting: Kansas State looks to snap bowl win drought

12.12.2013     11:37 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Michigan vs. Kansas State -3.5 O/U 56

For all the pointspread success Kansas State has had during Bill Synder's second stint in Manhattan (a very quiet 7-5 ATS this year), the Wildcats haven't had much of it in the postseason. Since Snyder's return in 2009, KSU is 0-3 SU/ATS. And as a program, they haven't won a bowl game since 2002.

2012: 35-17 SU/ATS (+8) Loss vs. Oregon
2011: 29-16 SU/ATS (+9) Loss vs. Arkansas
2010: 36-34 SU/ATS (+1) Loss vs. Syracuse
2006: 37-10 SU/ATS (+8.5) Loss vs. Rutgers
2003: 35-28 SU/ATS (-7) vs. Loss vs. Ohio State


“Nobody on our whole team has won a bowl game, with the exception of coaches,” junior linebacker Jonathan Truman said. “We need it and we want it really bad.

“We’ve tried our best in preparation in the past, the

Read more



Tags: College Football Kansas State Wildcats Big XII Michigan Wolverines Big Ten




College Football Handicapping: Wisconsin looking for better defense vs. South Carolina

12.12.2013     08:00 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Wisconsin -1 vs. South Carolina O/U 51

Wisconsin is eager to atone for it defensive mishaps in the regular season finale loss to Penn State. The Badgers allowed 465 totals yards after not having surrendered more than 391 in a Big Ten contest. Head coach Gary Andersen pointed out that it was the big plays that cost UW the game. South Carolina has at times shown big play ability this season with 20 plays of 50 yards or more. Against its three toughest offensive opponents, Arizona State, Ohio State, and BYU, Wisky allowed 26 ppg and 409.3 ypg (5.07 ypp).


"A lot of us got kind of a sick feeling in our stomach

Read more



Tags: College Football Wisconsin Badgers Big Ten South Carolina SEC




College Football Handicapping: Early thoughts on Rose, Fiesta, Sugar, BCS and more

12.11.2013     07:38 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Rose Bowl / Rose Bowl / Pasadena, CA
255 Michigan State
256 Stanford -2 (Power Rating)

Game Opened: Stanford -3 Total Not posted
Current Line: Stanford -4 or -4.5 Total Not yet posted

Early Thoughts
1. Obviously a battle of mirror images as similar style offenses and arguably the nation’s toughest defenses meet. Both teams are extremely happy to be in this game which should equate to 60 minutes of full effort from each side.   
  
2. Can’t help but feel the edge in this game goes to Stanford because they’ve produced equally stellar defensive results against far superior offensive competition. Indiana, Nebraska and Ohio State are the best offenses MSU faced this season and they allowed 28, 28, and 24 points to those teams for an average of 26.7 per game. The Spartans overall defensive numbers are somewhat skewed by the seven lousy offenses they played.             

3. The passing game and offensive line will be vital to each team’s success and probably determine the Read more



Tags: College Football Rob Veno




NBA Handicapper Free Play: Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Lakers

12.10.2013     10:34 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Phoenix +3 at LA Lakers O/U 206
Recommendation: Phoenix


It’s going to be a process before Kobe Bryant gets comfortable in this Lakers lineup.  His quote following the Lakers 12 point home loss to lowly Toronto in his season debut: “My rhythm is completely out of sync.”

Head coach Mike D’Antoni agreed wholeheartedly: “He'll work through his issues, and again, they're baby steps. He's coming back from a tough injury, and he's coming off eight months ... he is human, I think. We have to understand it's going to take the other players around him. It's going to be a little painful at first.”

Kobe Bryant is worth at least two or three points to this spread, but the Lakers are probably at least two or three points WORSE with him back on the floor – for now – as they adjust to new rotations and get their superstar acclimated to game speed.  Let’s not forget the excellent team chemistry this team had without Kobe on the floor for the first five weeks of the season – LA overachieved both SU and ATS.  That makes the Lake-show an easy ‘bet Read more



Tags: NBA Phoenix Suns Los Angeles Lakers Teddy Covers




College Football Gambling: Initial thoughts on bowl game opening numbers

12.09.2013     02:07 PM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Please note that these reactions are to the opening lines only and are in no way indicative of which way I would lean toward any of the games commented on. Bowl games are as much about situation (and sometimes even more so) as they are the lines.

1. Oddsmakers showed a lot of support for the top of the MAC as Bowling Green, Northern Illinois, Ball State and Buffalo all opened between 2-4 points higher than my power ratings projected.

2. There are hardly any home field type situations on this season’s bowl card but Maryland and North Carolina are close to home. The Terps are much closer to their back yard and I assigned them a +2 point home edge but the opener suggests that even a higher number may have been given. The same was not used in UNC’s case as the opener of -3 indicates they were given little to no home consideration. I used +1 for the Tar Heels.

3. Somewhat surprised that Syracuse opened only +4.5 considering how well Minnesota played down the stretch.

4. Kansas State opening -3 over Michigan seems a bit high, wouldn’t be surprised to see numbers and value guys bet it down some.

5. Missouri opening Read more



Tags: College Football Rob Veno




College Basketball Betting: Early season ATS suprises

12.09.2013     01:20 PM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
We're a month into the college basketball season so let's take a look at a handful of teams that have exceeded and underachieved from a pointspread perspective and whether or not the trend will continue moving forward.

UMass (8-0 SU, 7-1 ATS) - Last year around this time, UMass was a pointspread disaster (3-10 ATS start); unable to close the deal when asked to lay points. This year's group is different and has shown the ability to get timely stops while also staying away from sloppy play during crunch time. The resume is legit with wins over LSU, New Mexico, Clemson, and BYU. There are two more tests upcoming against Florida State and Providence before A-10 play starts. They'll be priced as a top-tier team after finishing last season in the middle of the pack (9-7). Be ready for moderate-sized prices at home and short lined games on the highway.

Georgia State (3-6 SU, 1-6 ATS) - GSU had the ideal profile of a "bet on" team heading into the season: under-the-radar program, proven head coach in his third year, nice mix of talent and returning experience. But it looks like that Panthers may have gotten a bit too much Read more



Tags: College Basketball UMass Minutemen Boston College Eagles Georgia State Panthers Penn State Nittany Lions Wright State Raiders Andrew Lange




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: How to bet college football bowl games

12.09.2013     08:23 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
During football season, I usually write about the NFL every week.  But it wasn’t easy to make broad generalizations about teams on a Sunday in which more than half the games were significantly affected by snowy or frigid weather.  And the college football bowl pairings were announced on Sunday Night.  So, I made the executive decision to take a one week break from the NFL this week to discuss my personal strategies for winning during bowl season.

Motivation is the key factor for any bowl game.  Overall talent and team speed don’t mean a thing when the players don’t give a hoot about being there.  That’s why underdogs tend to do fairly well against the spread in the earlier bowl games.  It’s not a reward for a favorite to end up in front of a sparse crowd in Boise or Detroit facing a team they’re not particularly excited about playing, especially if their second tier bowl bid came as a result of a relatively disappointing campaign.

Always check the local newspapers, blogs and yes, even twitter feeds for clues about any team’s level of preparation and Read more



Tags: College Football Teddy Covers




College Football Championship First and Second Half Betting Numbers

12.07.2013     08:51 AM     Rob Veno     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Rob Veno

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
In last night’s Mid-American Championship Game, Bowling Green continued its torrid 2013 run cashing as a second half “under” play for the 11th time in 13 games.  Always looking for hidden gems, here’s a look at the season’s results for each team involved in Saturday’s Conference Championship Games.

Conference USA - Marshall at Rice
1st Half ATS – Marshall 8-4-0 / Rice 9-3-0
1st Half Total – Marshall 5-6-0 / Rice 4-6-2 (Note: The Marshall-Gardner Webb game did not have a 1H total but had a 2H) 

Notes: Marshall is currently on a 5-0 1H ats streak defeating opponents by 14 or more in all five games. Rice is also a red-hot 1H play going 7-1 ats in their last eight games winning all seven of those contests by double digits.

2nd Half ATS – Marshall 6-6-0 / Rice 5-7-0
2nd Half Total – Marshall 7-5-0 / Rice 2-10-0

Notes: Of Marshall’s six road games this season, five of them resulted in 34 or more 2H points and a 5-1 “over” mark. Rice started the season playing nine consecutive 2H “unders” before going Read more



Tags: College Football Rob Veno



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, Ian Cameron, and Drew Martin. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Jul 30, 2015 08:04 PM.