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MLB Handicapping: Three Months of National League Boredom

07.23.2013     08:22 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I was watching the MLB Network for awhile this evening.  I think it was Al Leiter who pointed out that the Atlanta Braves hadn’t done much of anything since starting the season 12-1. We’ve been talking about the Braves' mediocre play for awhile on these pages. Then I started thinking, you know…NOBODY in that division has done anything since the Braves started 12-1!

NL East Since April 16 (when Braves were 12-1)

Atlanta 44-42

Philadelphia 43-42

Washington 40-45

NY Mets 36-46

Miami 33-50

If the Braves hadn’t rallied in the ninth inning tonight in New York they would have been 50/50 over three months, a half game worse than Philadelphia during that long span. Note that the quintet as a whole is 29 games under .500 over those three months. All games against each other split out…so they’ve really been outclassed against outsiders.

The NL Central has been pretty well Read more


Tags: MLB Atlanta Braves Stat Intelligence




MLB Gambling Free Pick: Cleveland Indians at Seattle Mariners

07.22.2013     10:28 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Cleveland (Jimenez) at Seattle (Harang) -110 O/U 8.5
Recommendation: Seattle


The single longest current winning streak in major league baseball belongs to the under-the-radar Seattle Mariners, a massive source of profits for their supporters.  Seattle’s bats are hitting better right now than they have all season, by a fairly wide margin.  They’ve scored 11, 8, 4, 7, 8, 6, 4, 10 4 and 12 runs in their last ten games.  In fact, the Mariners have scored four runs or more in 16 of their last 17 and 20 of their last 23 ballgames while averaging well over five runs per game during that span! 

Yet despite the Mariners’ offensive explosion, their 11-5 record in their last 16 ballgames and their winning record overall at home since losing their first two series back in April, we’re still seeing very little support in the betting markets for this squad.  How else can we explain the pick ‘em price to support Seattle at home this Read more


Tags: MLB Seattle Mariners Cleveland Indians Teddy Covers




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wiseguy Report: Tips on how to bet post-All-Star break MLB

07.22.2013     10:25 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
I wrote a similar article to this one last year at this time.  At the risk of plagiarizing myself, I thought many of the points I made last year are still extremely pertinent when it comes to post All-Star break baseball in 2013. 

NFL training camps open up around the country this week.  The start of fall practice for college football isn’t far behind.  Wiseguy bettors are spending a good portion of their time focusing on football right now.  We’ve got a maturing NFL Season win total marketplace, both here in Vegas and offshore.  Odds to win the NFL Divisions are up.  Week 1 numbers are available at multiple sportsbooks.  College football season win totals are up as are odds to win the various conferences.

So what happens when the betting markets shift their focus towards football?  After all, we’re less than a week out from the All Star break, with more than two full months of regular season baseball still to play.  There isn’t a team in either league that has completed more than 100 games of their 162-game schedule as I write this.

Yet any sportsbook director in town will tell Read more


Tags: MLB NFL College Football Teddy Covers




MLB Handicapping: Breaking From the Gate...After the Break...

07.22.2013     08:02 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

It can be tempting to overreact to stuff that happens when Major League Baseball resumes after the All-Star Break. Fans and analysts are playing extra close attention since they spent a few days thinking about the pennant races and how various teams may care…or not care about the rest of the season. But, the tone is often set for what follows by that first weekend. We won’t overreact today…but we’ll take a quick look at how all 30 offenses performed this past weekend using our “four-max” approach.

If you’re new to the blog, that’s a methodology that:

*Only counts scoring in the first five innings

*Stops counting once a team has reached FOUR runs

We do that to reward consistent scoring rather than the occasional explosion that can come if the opposing starting pitcher just doesn’t have anything that day…nor the lousy long relievers that replaced him. This started as an effort to gain context for Read more


Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence




NFL Handicapping: NFL Summer Review

07.20.2013     06:32 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Yesterday we reviewed Drive Point numbers and schedule strengths for the AFC (you can read that here if you missed it). Today, as promised, we’re back to do the NFC.

It was a really strange year in the NFC…and we have to talk about that strangeness before running the numbers. Those of you who have seen our estimated Power Rating scale in all sports know that I generally make 85 championship caliber…and rank everybody with that in mind. Last year, through most of the season, the NFC consisted of:

*About 6 teams who were 82-ish, and not consistent enough to make a run at 85

*About 9 teams who were 78-79-ish much of the time

*Arizona, who was well off the pace

San Francisco peaked at the right time…and rode that all the way to the Super Bowl. Seattle peaked late, and could make a legitimate case for being within arm’s length of 85 at the very Read more


Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




NFL Handicapping: AFC Summer Review

07.20.2013     06:28 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stats Intelligence

Our main stat of focus last year in the NFL is something we call “Drive Points.” Those are points scored and allowed on drives of 60 yards or more. It’s a stat I’ve been keeping by hand ever since USA Today first started running boxscores that itemized scoring drives many years ago. They do a lot of heavy lifting when it comes to defining “true” offense and defense because:

*You don’t get credit for non-offensive points

*You don’t get credit for cheap field position points off of turnovers

*You have to drive the field REPEATEDLY to grade out well

Good offenses move the ball and turn their drives into points. Good defenses prevent opponents from doing that.

I don’t want to suggest this is “everything.” The risk/reward ratio as expressed in turnover differential is also very important. The Detroit Lions put up a lot of Drive Points last year, but turned the ball over a million times in the process. Read more


Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




CFL Week Three Betting Recap

07.16.2013     10:33 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Here is my recap of Week 3 in the Canadian Football League as I provide a quick hitter team-by-team analysis of this week’s action…

Montreal Alouettes (1-2 SU and ATS):
It was a case of déjà vu for Montreal in Week 3 with the offense being dormant yet again. The offensive line remained unable to execute their protection packages and blocking schemes and it resulted in another long night for 40 year old QB Anthony Calvillo who didn’t receive enough time to step up and make plays in the pocket. Montreal scored just 7 points offensively. The other TD came on a return of a blocked punt. The defense was solid again but when the offense is as brutally inept as they are right now, there is only so much they can do. The body language is getting worse from the players and from head coach Dan Hawkins who continues to look like he may be in over his head. Montreal received even more bad news after this game with the season ending injury to veteran right guard Scott Flory. An injury to one of the few experienced players on that beleaguered O-Line is the last thing Montreal needed as they prepare to head to Read more


Tags: CFL Ian Cameron




MLB Betting Free Play: All Star Game

07.16.2013     10:27 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
2013 MLB All Star Game:
NL -115, O/U 8
Recommendation: Take the Under


The American League has been the better league, top-to-bottom, for more than a decade. This shows in a variety of ways. The AL is more than 200 games over .500 in interleague play since 1997. They’ve been at least ten games over .500 in interleague play in every year since 2005. The AL went 142-110 against the NL last year, and here in 2013, the AL has gone 107-94 thusfar, well on their way to another winning record.

Yes, the NL has won each of the last three World Series. But a longer term look shows the AL emerging victorious 12 times in the last 21 Fall Classics – no edge for the NL in that department either.

Of course, this column is about the 2013 All Star Game, not which league is better overall. The last three All Star games have all been won by the NL, and none of them have been particularly close, with the senior circuit outscoring their counterparts by a combined score of 16-2 in those games. That being said, a longer sample size here offers very different results. Prior to the All Star Game wins over the Read more


Tags: MLB Teddy Covers All Star Game Free Play




Teddy Covers Las Vegas Wise Guys Report: NFL Season O/U Wins

07.15.2013     10:16 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
I’ve written a couple of columns about the first NFL win totals posted here in Las Vegas. Now that the betting markets are starting to mature, it’s time to take another look at the Over/Under win totals for all 32 teams for the coming year. This week’s focus is on strength of schedule for the upcoming campaign.

I closed out my last column on NFL win totals by looking back at last year’s final strength of schedule, based on my power rating numbers for each opponent on the week that the game was played. Here was my final assessment:

“The New York Giants faced single toughest schedule from last year based on my numbers on the weeks the games were played. The Saints weren’t far behind. Arizona, San Francisco, Tennessee, Baltimore and St Louis all faced abnormally tough slates.
“On the easy side, the Colts, Texans and Bengals all stood out; by far the three easiest schedules in the league. Miami, Atlanta and San Diego also had much easier than average slates. In my next column, I’ll write about the next step in the process -- identifying accurate strength of schedule numbers for 2013.”

That Read more


Tags: NFL Season Wins Teddy Covers




MLB Gambling Free Pick: San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres

07.14.2013     09:24 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
San Francisco (Zito) +130 at San Diego (Stults) O/U 8
Recommendation: San Francisco


My clients and I cashed a 20* Big Ticket winner with the Giants on Friday in their 10-1 blowout over the Padres. And we cashed another winner supporting San Francisco last night with Tim Lincecum’s no hitter in a 9-0 laugher. There’s absolutely no reason to think the slumping Padres are going to break out of their extended funk this afternoon either.

Here’s an excerpt from yesterday’s write-up with the numbers adjusted to reflect current realities:

“For all the struggles that the Giants have endured over the past few weeks, this team is still very much in contention in the NL West, trailing vulnerable division leader Arizona by only 6.5 games. The defending World Series champs have been here before – at the end of an extended slump AND on the outside looking in at the playoff picture past the halfway point of the season. There’s money Read more


Tags: MLB San Francisco Giants San Diego Padres Teddy Covers



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, Ian Cameron, and Paul Stone. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Aug 29, 2014 03:08 PM.