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Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: Identifying College Football ATS Outliers

08.26.2013     07:23 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
College football season kicks off on Thursday Night.  By Labor Day, we’ll have seen 88 teams play other FBS opponents and another 31 teams play FCS foes, available for betting at many top books on the extra games board.  How important are those Week 1 results when we project forward?  What about Week 2 and Week 3? Read on to find out!

Twenty-six college football teams were pointspread outliers last year.  Twelve squads hit 75% or better ATS.  Fourteen squads hit 25% or worse for the full season.  This falls within recent historical patterns – in every recent season, 20-25% of the teams are strong “bet on” or “bet against” squads.  If we broaden the base to 67% ATS wins or losses for the full season, it’s not unusual to see 35-40% of the teams in college football fall into those two categories.

So how do we identify these teams?  Most importantly, how do we identify them early in the season, before September is through, so we can take advantage of their success or ineptitude repeatedly before the market starts to catch up?

The top pointspread teams of 2012 were Fresno State, Read more


Tags: College Football Teddy Covers




MLB Handicapping: Records since the All-Star Break

08.26.2013     06:51 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

I noticed a lot of people are doing web searches for this. The mainstream places should have a page updated daily! Here are Major League Baseball records only counting games played from the All-Star Break through Sunday August 25.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Best in the AL

Detroit 25-11

Texas 21-14

Kansas City 22-15

Tampa Bay 19-13

Cleveland 20-15

Let’s stop there…with the teams who have been playing the best ball in the best league. Detroit hit an extra gear at the Break, and continues to play at a very high level. They’ve clearly been the best team in the AL since then. You have to debate the relative strength of the two leagues to decide if they’re better than the Dodgers team that’s been tearing up the NL. Texas and Tampa Bay have positioned themselves very well to at least make the playoffs with solid runs. What’s amazing about Kansas City is that Read more


Tags: MLB Stat Intelligence




NFL Preseason Betting Recap: Saturday Dress Rehearsals

08.25.2013     07:49 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

Ten games on the Saturday schedule. One is a very late starter that we’ll save until our next report. Grab some popcorn because this one's going to take awhile. Numbers and notes from the first nine Saturday finishers in market rotation order...

(If you’re new to the site, “Drive Points” are those scored on drives of 60 yards or more. “Stat Score” is an estimate of what the final score should have been based only on rushing and passing yardage. The formula for that is 2 times rushing yardage…plus passing yardage…times 0.67…divided by 15)

Washington 30, Buffalo 7

Total Yardage: Buffalo 155, Washington 452

Passing Stats: Buffalo 12-21-0-63, Washington 18-35-0-244

Turnovers: Buffalo 2, Washington 0

Drive Points: Buffalo 0, Washington 17

Stat Score: Buffalo 15, Washington 29

About as ugly from the Buffalo perspective as it could be…

*Kevin Kolb Read more


Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




NFL Preseason Betting Recap: Seattle improves to 3-0 ATS with win at Green Bay

08.24.2013     06:30 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

It wasn’t a full dress rehearsal because Green Bay was careful with Aaron Rodgers. It’s like they decided, “Man, Pete Carroll is a MANIAC during preseason games…let’s give Rodgers one series to get points on the board then we’ll call it a night.”

Rodgers played one series…led to team to a field goal…and watched a few more hours of players yelling at each other, pushing, shoving, and drawing penalties. Seattle had 14 penalties for 182 yards. Green Bay had 8 for 69. And, there were several offsetting penalties that didn’t count against either team.

Here are the final numbers…

Seattle 17 (-3), Green Bay 10

Total Yardage: Seattle 362, Green Bay 201

Passing Stats: Seattle 18-28-2-232, Green Bay 18-34-0-126

Turnovers: Seattle 2, Green Bay 2

Drive Points: Seattle 10, Green Bay 7

Stat Score: Seattle 25, Green Bay 12

Quick points:

*Seattle Read more


Tags: NFL Seattle Seahawks Green Bay Packers Stat Intelligence




Gambler steals money from employer, bets like crazy, and of course loses

08.21.2013     08:05 AM     Printer Friendly
Yeah, this dude is in big trouble.


In a three-hour spree on Bet365, he placed high-value bets on football, baseball and the tennis French Open - including an £11,250 bet on Gilles Simon to beat Roger Federer, which he

He won £27,757 during an England v Brazil football match by betting that it would be 0-0 at half time, before losing £17,757 after betting on Brazil to win the match.











Canadian Football League Week 8 Betting Recap

08.21.2013     07:46 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Here is my recap of Week 8 in the Canadian Football League as I provide a quick hitter, team-by-team analysis of the four teams that were in action…

Montreal Alouettes (2-5 SU, 3-4 ATS)
Give the Montreal Alouettes credit for fighting their asses off against the Saskatchewan Roughriders. The Alouettes stepped up and showed some pride after a miserable effort at home in a 38-13 blowout loss to Toronto the previous week. Montreal’s defense played by far its best game of the season. They were dominant by getting pressure on quarterback Darian Durant and doing an admirable job against the explosive running of Kory Sheets who for the first time this season was held below 100 yards. Quarterback Anthony Calvillo suffered a concussion late in the first half and didn’t return. That forced backup Josh Neiswander into the game and he didn’t move the football much at all in the second half against Saskatchewan’s staunch defense. Montreal only a scored one field goal and a fumble return touchdown in the second half. The offense couldn’t generate very much and that allowed the Roughriders to escape with a 24-21 win. It’s Read more


Tags: CFL Ian Cameron




NFL Handicapping: A look back at 2012's sloppiest teams

08.20.2013     01:29 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Submitted by Stat Intelligence

As promised, I’ve compiled sloppiness scores for all 32 NFL teams from the 2012 season. I’ve also done the math for all 32 defenses in terms of “forcing sloppiness" from opponents. I’ll post those in a separate report tomorrow to keep this from turning into a long novel that’s hard to digest in one reading.

If you’re new to the site, sloppiness is a quickfire stat that paints a picture of how effectively teams execute. The formula is 5 times the number of giveaways…plus the number of incomplete passes. The lower the number the better because you want to avoid sloppiness. The league average last year was right around 21 for a per-game score. Having a game in the 30’s or higher is embarrassing. Having an AVERAGE near 30 is a very strong indictment of your quarterback and coach.

Let’s start with the sloppiest teams from 2012 and work our way toward the sharpest…

Sloppiest Teams

Detroit Read more


Tags: NFL Stat Intelligence




Teddy Covers' Las Vegas Wise Guy Report: AFC Preseason News and Notes

08.19.2013     08:13 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Welcome to Teddy’s unique look at the NFL. During August, Teddy records every game, then watches every first half on Sunday, typing furiously on his laptop while giving you the key info that the box scores and game recaps simply don’t have. This week: AFC tidbits from the first two weeks of the preseason.

Cincinnati Bengals – Boy this team looks impressive; a potential Super Bowl sleeper in a conference that has no clear no. 3 behind Denver and New England to start the season. This was a top 10 defense last year, and looks even better this year, positively loaded with the addition of Super Bowl winner James Harrison from Pittsburgh. Harrison was run blitzing and making plays in the backfield, now the inside linebacker in a 4-3, a new position. Lots of blitzing, worth noting in preseason! The position battles here aren’t huge ones – a battle for the starting center job (Kyle Cook is the favorite to win it) and battles for the second and third receiver after AJ Green. No three-and-outs while Andy Dalton was on the field; he did a great job audibling out of bad situational play calls

Buffalo Bills Read more


Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




College Football Betting: Purdue names Henry starting quarterback

08.19.2013     06:38 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Purdue first-year head coach Darrell Hazell tabbed senior Rob Henry the team's starting quarterback. Henry started seven games in 2010, missed 2011 with a knee injury, and played sparingly last season. It will be interesting to see how Hazell utilizes Henry who earlier in his career showed a decent ability to run the football (547 yards, 5.26 ypc in 2010). During Hazell's last season at Kent State the Golden Flashes ran the ball nearly 62% of the time.



Tags: College Football Purdue Boilermakers Big Ten




College Football Betting: Another long season awaits Tim Beckman and Illinois

08.16.2013     09:19 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
On a recent Sportsmemo Podcast (you can listen here) I had a great conversation with Brian Edwards about the Big Ten and in particular Illinois. Brian was pretty vocal about his distaste for Illini head coach Tim Beckman who is heading into his second season in Champaign. I'm not as anti-Beckman as Brian but I do agree that he appears to be over his head and will have a difficult time fielding a competitive football team this year. So much so that I recommend a play on the UNDER with their season over/under wins. Unfortunately, 5Dimes appears to be the only sportsbook I know of offering a line, so if you can't get a bet down consider this a "fade report" of the Illini.

If you do play at 5Dimes, there are multiple numbers available. The baseline number is 3.5 with -120 juice on both sides. Playing 3.5 under is a good play, however, you can also get 4un-175 which is even stronger. In order to lose, Illinois will obviously have to get to five wins which I simply don’t see. But paying the extra juice gives you a little wiggle room as four wins Read more


Tags: College Football Illinois Fighting Illini Big Ten Andrew Lange



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Copyright © 2007 SPORTSMEMO, INC, 1-800-575-3069. Sportsmemo.com is the nation’s premier resource for sports betting and handicapping information. Get free football picks, free NFL picks, free college football picks, free baseball picks, free NBA picks, free college basketball picks, free hockey picks, free golf picks, and free soccer picks from the nation’s top handicappers. Sportsmemo's sports betting insight and analysis comes from some of the most respected sports handicappers in the sports gambling industry including Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers), Brent Crow of Alatex Sports, Rob Veno, Erin Rynning, Otto Sports, Andrew Lange, Sammy P Sports, Ian Cameron, and Paul Stone. Listen to these handicapping experts daily on the Sportsmemo Radio Show from Noon-2 pm PST on Fox Sports 920AM in Las Vegas and the web at Sportsmemo.com.  Missed the Sportsmemo Radio Show?  Past shows are available on Sportsmemo.com's radio archive page. Looking for daily sports betting tips and sports betting advice on the MLB, NBA, NCAA, NFL, NHL, AFL, and PGA? Check out the interactive sports betting posting forum, matchup statistics, power ratings, expert handicapping blogs, and original sports betting articles from the Sportsmemo team that specializes in sports information from a pointspread perspective at Sportsmemo.com.   Sep 30, 2014 08:58 PM.