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Colonial Atheltic Association Tournament Betting Preview
03.01.2011 12:38 PM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
The Colonial Athletic Association Tournament gets underway on Friday in Richmond, Virginia. All 12 teams make the tournament with seeds No. 5-No. 12 facing off in the first round. The top four seeds all receive first round byes. Over the last six years, the No. 1 seed has won the tournament five times. Only once (No. 11 Towson in 2009) has a team outside of the top six seeds made the semifinals. Ten of the last 12 finalists have been a third seed or better.
The year’s top seed is George Mason (16-2) who finished two games ahead of second seed Old Dominion (14-4) and third seed Hofstra (14-4). Mason was also the league’s top ATS outfit with a 14-4 mark during the regular season. The Patriots and Monarchs are both solid bets to reach the Big Dance as at-large berths should they not win the conference tournament.
Hometown VCU (fourth-seed) started 10-1 in league play but faded badly down the stretch to finish 12-6. The Rams have won two of the last four tournament titles and clearly have the talent to
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Colonial
College Basketball
Andrew Lange
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Horizon League Tournament Betting Preview
02.28.2011 12:00 PM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
The Horizon League Tournament is considered by some to be innovative in that it is entirely geared for the top two teams to meet in the finals (double bye). In 2002, Butler went 25-5 and had the nation's most road wins (15). They were the class of the league but UIC won the conference tournament as a sixth-seed at neutral site Cleveland. That prompted the league to move the semifinals and finals to the regular season champ, who this year is UW-Milwaukee. Since the switch, the Horizon League has seen a No. 1 vs. No. 2 finals matchup in six of eight years. The other two matchups were No. 1 vs. No. 3. Rested and ready, teams afforded a bye have a distinct advantage.
Note that the second round and semifinals are at UW-Milwaukee. The finals are at the highest remaining seed should UWM not advance.
This year's host UW-Milwaukee was considered just another average outfit to start the year – and after a 4-5 start to league play. But the Panthers ripped off nine straight league wins (8-1 ATS) and won the title with an
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Tags:
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UW-Milwaukee Panthers
Butler Bulldogs
Cleveland State Vikings
Vaparaiso Crusaders
Andrew Lange
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CBB Handicapping: Are soft rims the reason for Wisconsin Overs?
02.28.2011 07:49 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Have you noticed some of the obscene shooting performances by Wisconsin – and the opposition – in the Kohl Center this season? The most recent was last night's clinic in which the Badgers and Northwestern combined for the following offensive numbers: 49-94 52% FGs, 19-40 48% 3-pt, 24-31 77% FTs. The end result was a 78-63 UW win and another home game that went over the total. To date seven of Wisconsin's nine league games at the Kohl Center have gone over the total, and some of them weren’t even close. The last four home tilts have produce games scores of 141, 142, 138 and 138. All told, the average closing total on those nine home games was 123.5 and the average game score was 133.5.
The reason? In the handful of times I’ve watched Wisconsin play at home in Big Ten play, I have seen some generous bounces which suggest soft rims may be the culprit. And I’m apparently not the only one to notice. Type in “soft rims Kohl Center” into Google, and
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Wisconsin Badgers
Big Ten
Andrew Lange
College Basketball
Kohl Center
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Saturday CBB Free Play: Weber State at Sacramento State
02.26.2011 08:44 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Weber State -8.5 at Sacramento State O/U 131.5
Recommendation: Under
Sacramento State has shown a strong home/road dichotomy when it comes to game scores and pace. On the road in Big Sky play, the Hornets have produced these games:
at Eastern Washington 88-79 OT
at Idaho State 68-63 OT
at Weber State 84-71
at Northern Arizona 79-58
at Portland State 86-80
at Montana 64-44
at Montana State 74-71
Now we take a look at their games at home against the same opponents:
vs. Montana State 61-59
vs. Montana 68-52
vs. Northern Colorado 77-72
vs. Eastern Washington 57-55
vs. Idaho State 74-63
vs. Portland State 63-55
vs. Northern Arizona 63-42
To no surprise, Sacramento State is 6-1 O/U on the road and 2-5 O/U at the Hornet's Nest. Tonight, they play host to Weber State, who is still in the hunt for the outright league title. Because of Portland State's postseason ineligibility, Sacramento State has a rare shot to make
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Sacramento State Hornets
Weber State Wildcats
Big Sky
Andrew Lange
College Basketball
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SEC Betting Preview: Georgia Bulldogs at Florida Gators
02.24.2011 07:10 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Georgia +6 at Florida O/U 129
Recommendation: Georgia
If you've watched Florida play at all this year you'll notice that when things get tight, the game bogs down considerably. Late in games, especially at home, when the margin is close, the Gators have shown no ability to separate. It is almost as if they'd rather win by two than eight. In Gainesville, contests against Vanderbilt, Kentucky and Tennessee all came down to the wire and were decided on the last possession. The same was true in their first meeting against Georgia, which resulted in double OT. Florida's Chandler Parsons is expected to return but will not start. You cannot put a price on how important Parsons has been on both ends of the floor. As for Georgia, this game could very well decide its postseason fate. At 18-8, 7-5, the Dawgs need another high profile win to even be considered for the NCAA Tournament so I would expect a max effort tonight. Florida was a three-point underdog in Athens which makes tonight's price too
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Florida Gators
Georgia Bulldogs
SEC
Andrew Lange
College Basketball
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Big Sky Betting Preview: Weber State at Idaho State
02.22.2011 07:23 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Weber State at Idaho State +5 O/U 139
Recommendation: Idaho State
Because the Big Sky Tournament only takes six teams, there is a lot more emphasis on these late season games than in other conferences. Idaho State's entire lineup is upperclassmen and after not making last year's postseason, it is now or never with three game remaining and a 4-9 league record. The Bengals have been playing much better basketball; winners of three of their last four. Put them on their home turf and they are capable of beating anyone in the league. In five home games, ISU is -7 in scoring margin. On the road, that number jumps to -65. This is a big rivalry game with both teams about two hours apart from one another. On Weber State's home floor, there have been plenty of blowouts, but in Pocatello, practically every game has come down to the final few minutes with WSU needing overtime to win its last two visits. Also note that Weber State has had its issues on the road with a 2-4 record in league play and one of those
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Weber State Wildcats
Idaho State Bengals
Big Sky
Andrew Lange
College Basketball
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Horizon League Betting Pick: Valparaiso at UW-Green Bay
02.21.2011 08:07 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Valparaiso at UW-Green Bay
Recommendation: UW-Green Bay +1/2 first half
Good spot to get a full effort from the home side as Wisconsin-Green Bay plays host to Valparaiso on Senior Night. The Phoenix has dropped five straight including three by two points or less. The Resch Center has typically been a strong court but their last two home games resulted in two-point losses to Wright State and Butler. This will mark the
final home game for senior Rahmon Fletcher
, who has started a program-best 120 games. During Fletcher’s tenure, the Phoenix are 44-13 at home.
"I know those guys love it as a shooting gym," Wardle said. "They love the atmosphere, the rims, the whole feel of it. It's a neat place to play, and Rahmon and Bree have always felt very comfortable there. That confidence playing there has
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Valparaiso Crusaders
UW-Green Bay Phoenix
Horizon
Andrew Lange
College Basketball
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CBB Bracket Buster Free Play: Loyola Marymount at Portland State
02.19.2011 08:04 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Loyola Marymount -1.5 at Portland State O/U 144
Recommendation: Loyola Marymount
Some might not be aware that Portland State is ineligible for postseason play because of poor academics from last year. The Pilots started the season strong at 7-5 and were even a respectable 3-3 in Big Sky play after a big home win over Weber State. But since then, the bottom has fallen out and the realization of a meaningless season is obviously apparent. Since the win over Weber, PSU is 1-6 with a lone win over bottom feeder Sacramento State – who they immediately turned around and lost to on the road by eight. Their last two efforts have been brutal with a home loss to Idaho State and 22-point loss at Weber. Loyola Marymount has had a disappointing season. They picked up a couple decent wins in non-conference but league play has been rough (2-10). With games at Santa Clara and San Francisco upcoming, this may be their last opportunity for a win. The Lions are off a victory over Pepperdine and while a trip to
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Loyola Marymount Lions
WCC
Portland State Pilots
Big Sky
Andrew Lange
College Basketball
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Sun Belt Free Betting Pick: Arkansas State at UL-Lafayette
02.17.2011 08:45 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Arkansas State at UL-Lafayette -2 O/U 140.5
Recommendation: UL-Lafayette
One of the hidden home court advantages in the Sun Belt has been the Cajun Dome where UL-Lafayette is 13-1 over the last two years with the lone loss coming in overtime. The Ragin Cajuns are in fine form, winners of seven straight including a road win last time out against Florida Atlantic. Arkansas State has three road wins on the year: Southeast Missouri, UL-Monroe and Arkansas-Little Rock. SEMO and Monroe are absolute bottom feeders while Little Rock is league average. Statistically, both teams are fairly even across the board. ASU won the first meeting 74-65. This on expects to be close but I'll step in and fade the market move and grab red hot ULL at the much more attractive price of -2.
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UL-Lafayette Ragin Cauns
Arkansas State Red Wolves
Sun Belt
Andrew Lange
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CBB Free Betting Pick: Montana State at San Jose State
02.15.2011 07:37 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Montana State at San Jose State -7 O/U 143
Recommendation: San Jose State
To say Montana State has been bad on the road in an understatement. The Bobcats have been competitive in only two Big Sky road games – against the two worst teams in the league. Of their 12 games on the road, seven came by margins of 14 or more. There is also the issue of confidence and right now, MSU has none. After starting Big Sky play 5-1, they've lost seven straight including last time out in a must-win home game against bottom feeder Sacramento State. Now they go out on the road for a meaningless non-conference game. San Jose State has struggled this season and comes in off a heartbreaking overtime loss over Nevada. They play their next five games at home and still have a shot at salvaging the season. These two teams hooked up in last year's Bracket Buster and after losing four straight, the Spartans traveled up to Montana and took care of business with a 10-point win. There is a class difference between the WAC and
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Montana State Bobcats
San Jose State Spartans
WAC
Big Sky
Andrew Lange
College Basketball
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