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CBB Free Betting Pick: Tennessee Tech at UT-Martin
02.12.2011 08:10 AM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
Tennessee Tech -2 at UT-Martin O/U 145.5
Recommendation: Tennessee Tech
There are more than a few teams in the Ohio Valley Conference where home/road dichotomy simply doesn't exist. Take Tennessee Tech for example. The Eagles are 9-6 in conference play; 5-3 on the road and 4-3 at home. That's not to say TTU isn't stronger at home but I don't think we will see that much difference in play as they go on the road to face a lower-tier team. TTU is as flighty as any other in the league but they’ve found a way to beat the teams there were supposed to beat. In games against teams below .500 in league play, TTU has taken care of business with a 5-1 mark. In looking at UT-Martin wins, they came against bottom feeders Jacksonville State, SEMO and Eastern Illinois (combined 12-31 in league play). Despite the difference in league record (TTU 9-6, UTM 4-10) there isn't a massive gap between the two schools, hence the short line. But Tech has more talent and it better statistically on both ends of the floor.
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Tags:
Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles
UT-Martin Sky Hawks
Ohio Valley
Andrew Lange
College Basketball
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What the Jerry Sloan saga means to bettors
02.11.2011 12:20 PM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
Jerry Sloan's abrupt departure has caused a media frenzy boarding on biblical proportions. Major outlets, blogs, message boards, they all have an opinion of what exactly took place and who is to blame. Deron Williams vs. Jerry Sloan...Someone had to go...Players don't respect coaches anymore...Sloan deserved better, etc. One of the most important jobs of being a bettor is not to overreact. Analyze the situation, gather as many facts as you can and then determine how large of an impact if any it will have on the pointspread. If you sift through the Sloan saga poop, there are a couple of contrarian opinions that perhaps tell a different story. Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo Sports took a more neutral stance
in this worthy read
. One quote in particular that stood out:
“The player isn’t always wrong,” one respected GM said Thursday."
That's not to
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Tags:
Utah Jazz
Deron Williams
Jerry Sloan
NBA
Andrew Lange
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Big Sky Betting Free Play: Northern Colorado at Montana State
02.10.2011 09:30 AM
Andrew Lange
Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange
Northern Colorado -1.5 at Montana State O/U 132
Recommendation: Over
Like a lot of Big Sky teams, there is a strong home/road dichotomy with Northern Colorado's defensive numbers. At home, the Bears are as good as any on defense, holding foes to 72, 53, 46, 37, 58 and 45. But on the road, UNC's defense is not nearly as potent. In five conference road tilts, the Bears have allowed 65, 72, 72, 73 and 66. Going back to non-conference play, we see similar results as UNC allowed 78, 75, 71, 86, 87 and 93. Montana State shows the same dichotomy when it comes to its offensive output. At home in league play, the Bobcats are averaging 72.8 ppg vs. only 54 ppg on the highway. Pretty simple formula here and we play this one over the total.
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Northern Colorado Bears
Montana State Bobcats
Big Sky
Andrew Lange
College Basketball
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Trying to handicap the Cleveland Cavaliers
02.07.2011 11:38 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Cleveland at Dallas -14.5 O/U 206.5
Everyone in the gambling community is well aware of the Cleveland Cavaliers’ recent run of horrific play. They’ve lost 24 straight and have been a money burner a 7-16-1 ATS. But in analyzing the line movements on Cleveland’s games, there hasn’t been the feeding frenzy to “play against” most would assume. Based on CRIS’s opening and closing lines, only seven times did we see the closing number “fade” the Cavs whereas the same amount of game moved towards them. In 10 of those 24 contests, the opening and closing numbers were the same – including four straight – which suggests that the oddsmakers are working with a fairly accurate power rating.
In looking at the differential between the pointspreads and final score, 14 of the 24 games landed within five points or less of the opening line. That feat isn’t groundbreaking by any stretch – probably close to league average – but is shows
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Andrew Lange
NBA
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OVC Betting Preview: Murray State at Eastern Illinois
02.07.2011 07:02 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Murray State at Eastern Illinois +8 O/U 124
Recommendation: Eastern Illinois
College basketball teams rarely if ever know the actual pointspread of their games but this late in the season, they have pretty good understanding who is the favorite or underdog. The reason I bring this up is because we see schools who consistently fail when they are expected to win. Eastern Illinois is a prime example of that. The Panthers have three of what most who follow this team would consider being marquee victories in knocking off Murray State as a 14-point underdog, Morehead State as a 7.5-point underdog and Bradley as a 12.5-point underdog. Murray and Morehead are currently the top two teams in the Ohio Valley Conference.
On the flip side, when laying points (or a pick 'em), the Panthers have been absolutely miserable. EIU is 0-7 ATS when favored with only one straight up victory out of the bunch. Included in that are four straight losses against a swatch of team they should have gone at worst 2-2. Murray
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Murray State Ravers
Ohio Valley
Andrew Lange
College Basketball
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Bg East Free Betting Pick: DePaul at Louisville
02.05.2011 07:39 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
DePaul at Louisville -19.5 O/U 144
Recommendation: Over
I'm a little bit baffled by the minimal price adjustment on DePaul's totals the last two games. Against Notre Dame, the game closed at 141 and that is right where it landed. The Fighting Irish did whatever they wanted on offense but really slowed down the tempo late in the game or else they could have hung 90. Louisville plays much faster than Notre Dame and doesn't really have that pause button when it comes to attacking on offense. The key in this game is getting DePaul up and over the 60-point barrier. They've struggled of late to do that but the teams they were facing all play at a moderate tempo. Another thing to consider is focus. Louisville just got finished with a brutal three-game swing; one-point win over West Virginia, overtime win over UConn and three-point loss at Georgetown – and also have a game at Notre Dame on deck. I haven't seen a lot of quit in DePaul, even when down big margins. I think this game will have a loose
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DePaul Blue Demons
Louisville Cardinals
Big East
Andrew Lange
College Basketball
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Ivy League Betting Preview: Harvard at Princeton
02.04.2011 07:56 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Harvard at Princeton -1.5 O/U 129.5
Recommendation: Over
Only five games for Princeton this season have gone under the 130 mark. The reason is the Tigers are much improved on offense and playing at a quicker tempo. That isn't to say that tonight's game against Harvard will be a run-and-gun affair, but for the first time in a long time, Princeton actually looks to score with more than 15 seconds left on the shot clock.
Harvard is a team that likes to get up and down the floor. “We need to get a tempo we’re comfortable with,” Amaker said. “It’s been lower scoring games [versus Princeton in the past]. I think it’s important that the tempo moves a little faster...which is easier said than done with way they play.” So as you can see, we have one team that is looking to push the tempo and another, while not fast paced, on home a home court where they've had no trouble having offensive success. In six home tilts, Princeton has averaged 70.1 ppg and shot
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Harvard Crimson
Ivy League
Andrew Lange
College Basketball
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Super Bowl Prop Bet: Pittsburgh OVER 5.5 third down conversions
02.03.2011 12:10 PM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Pittsburgh Third Down Conversions O/U 5.5
Recommendation: Over 5.5 (+110 @ 5Dimes)
Roethlisberger's passing numbers on third down are simply spectacular. For the season, he was 70-for-107 65.4% with eight touchdowns and only one interceptions for a QB rating of 114.2. To put that is perspective, Big Ben's third down passing numbers were better than Manning, Brees, Rodgers and Rivers. Only Brady, who was named the league's offensive player of the year, had a higher QB rating (115.9) on third down. Let's also not forget that Roethlisberger has the ability to pick up yards with his feet; 11 rushes for 71 yards on 3rd and medium or long.
Here are some more numbers to consider: In four games without Roethlisberger, the Steelers produced games with 4, 2, 4 and 4 third down conversions. With Ben on the field, 10 of 14 games (including both in the playoffs) featured six or more third downs for an average of 6.6 per game. The Steelers were 10th in the NFL in third down attempts and fifth in
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Super Bowl
Pittsburgh Steelers
Green Bay Packers
Andrew Lange
Prop Bet
Ben Roethlisberger
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A closer look at the Syracuse point shaving rumors
02.02.2011 02:10 PM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
UPDATE
Spend five minutes Googling "Syracuse point shaving" and you'll notice the sources of information range from random posting forums to Bleacher Report (aka Wikipedia for drunk sports fans). Business Insider compiled an
"everything you need to know"
regarding the matter and refuted the claims. A sportsbook in Vegas said that they hadn't noticed any "erratic betting patters”. Various blogs have gone through the shortcomings if Scoop Jardine's play of late as well as Syracuse's dismal 7-13 ATS record. Nowhere did it mention that Syracuse lost three key starters and didn't play a true road game until January 8th.
My take? It sounds more and more like there was a disgruntled bettor(s) who failed to recognize that the Orange were overvalued, untested, and
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Big East
Andrew Lange
College Basketball
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CBB Handicapping: Florida continues to struggle in close games
02.02.2011 09:52 AM
Andrew Lange
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Submitted by Andrew Lange
Below is what Florida has done offensively the last five minutes of regulation in its last two games. Against Mississippi State, Florida finished 0-of-8 from the floor and 1-of-4 from the free throw line. Last night against Vanderbilt, more of the same with 0-of-7 FGs and 2-of-4 FTs.
In watching both games, it is clear that the Gators have no go-to option in crunch time. Nearly all of their offense took place 20+ feet from the basketball with players rarely if ever looking to attack the paint. Even in overtime in last night's win over Vanderbilt, the Gators seemed comfortable letting the clock churn and hoisting up low percentage jump shots.
We've seen Florida at times pick up the pace early on in games but when things get close late, Billy Donovan is very quick to call out set plays. Typically, set plays take time off the clock but they put specific players in better position to score. Donovan knows he doesn’t have the type of players who can individually break down a defense. But even as they
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SEC
Billy Donovan
Andrew Lange
College Basketball
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