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NFL Gambling: Using Strength of Schedule to Handicap Season Over/Under Wins Part I

07.14.2014     01:59 PM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
When looking at the entirety of the NFL futures market, Super Bowl odds and odds to win divisions or conferences only give bettors one choice – betting ON a particular team.  Then that team has to beat out all of their competition to win the division/conference/Super Bowl for you to cash, offering the potential for big payday longshot returns, but cashing a low percentage of the wagers that are made.

NFL Season Win totals, on the other hand, offer bettors the opportunity to bet AGAINST teams in relatively low juice situations.  And with win totals, even when betting Overs, the team you are betting on doesn’t have to win anything big. 

For example, the Kansa City Chiefs didn’t win their division last year; unable to get past mighty Denver.  They didn’t win the AFC or the Super Bowl.  But they cashed every Over ticket that was bet on their season wins by the time their bye week rolled around.  KC’s 11-5 campaign offered a positive return-on-investment for a squad lined at 7 or 7.5 wins prior to the season.

In my opinion, NFL win totals rank among the most profitable set of wagers currently Read more



Tags: NFL Teddy Covers




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies

07.11.2014     08:48 AM     Teddy Covers     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Teddy Covers

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Washington (Zimmermann) -140 at Philadelphia (Burnett) O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Washington


Since the beginning of June, Jordan Zimmermann has been as good as any pitcher in baseball.  In seven starts, he has a 1.26 ERA with a 46-7 strikeout to walk ratio in 50 innings of work.  Zimmermann won 19 games last year and ranked among the best pitchers in baseball with a 4.4 WAR and 2.94 ERA in 2012. This hot streak is no fluke.

Zimmermann’s quote sums it up well: “I just started throwing strikes and locating better. The slider finally came back. I didn't have it for a month and a half. I was able to get that back. That's a big pitch."

His streak started with a dominating performance against the same Phillies lineup he’ll face today, throwing eight innings of shutout ball.  He certainly shut down Philadelphia on a consistent basis last year, allowing only four earned runs while notching three wins in four starts against Read more



Tags: MLB Washington Nationals Philadelphia Phillies Teddy Covers




World Cup Gambling: Anti-betting ad a game away from backfiring

07.10.2014     08:21 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
The intentions were right – problem gambling is nothing to joke about – but you have to chuckle over a Singaporean anti-gambling ad that featured a kid who was bummed out by his dad's big bet on Germany to win the World Cup. Cheer up, little guy, your pops is live! Germany is currently a short favorite to beat Argentina for Sunday's title game.




Tags: Soccer




NBA Handicapping: Bettors play guessing game with LeBron's destination

07.08.2014     08:36 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
As nauseating as it is to follow the coverage of LeBron James' free agent saga it has had an impact on the betting markets. Anticipating a potential move back to Cleveland a few Las Vegas bettors jumped in on the Cavs to win next year's NBA title. The MGM reportedly took a dime bet that helped drop the line from 40-1 to (geesh) 10-1. A slightly less knee-jerk reaction at LVH with Cleveland's odds now 30-1 after opening 60-1. Note that the MGM was the same sportsbook that at one point had the USMNT at 10-1 to win the World Cup.


"They are our biggest liability right now," said MGM VP of Race and Sports Jay Rood. "We took a dime ($1,000) on them at 40-1."







Tags: NBA Miami Heat Cleveland Cavaliers




MLB Betting News: Astros come back down to earth in a big way

07.07.2014     08:43 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
On June 14, the Houston Astros beat Tampa Bay 7-3 to move to a respectable six games under .500 and more importantly a profitable mark for their supports. But over the last three weeks, they've regressed in a major way. Check out some of the team's numbers during their last 20 games.

Record: 4-16
Team ERA: 5.36
Team BA: .219
Team OBP: .282
Team OPS: .620
Team Strikeouts: 204
Team Walks: 53


The schedule during that 20-game span wasn't easy with games against Washington (2), Tampa Bay (5), Atlanta (3), Detroit (3), Seattle (3), and Los Angeles (4). It lightens some over the next two weeks with three-game series vs. Texas, Boston, and Chicago. No doubt this squad is better than last year’s edition but this current slide has certainly put out the fire of their early season “success.” Note that the Astros finished last season’s second half 18-50.





Tags: MLB Houston Astros




College Football Handicapping: Big Ten offensive line returning starts

07.02.2014     12:42 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Here a link to Phil Steele's returning career offensive line starts and an closer look at the Big Ten's o-lines. Indiana (130) and Minnesota (129) ranked third and fourth, respectively, on a national level. Ohio State (21) and Penn State (20) have the second and third fewest returning career starts nationally.


3. Indiana: 130 career starts
4. Minnesota: 129
19. Northwestern: 100
22. Rutgers: 99
23. Illinois: 96
46. Wisconsin: 74
66. Iowa: 62
T-68. Maryland: 61
T-68: Michigan State: 61
107. Michigan: 37
116. Nebraska: 32
117. Purdue: 31
126. Ohio State: 21
127. Penn State: 20






Tags: College Football Big Ten




MLB Handicapper Free Play: Cleveland Indians at Los Angeles Dodgers

07.02.2014     08:14 AM     Andrew Lange     Printer Friendly
Submitted by Andrew Lange

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Cleveland (Bauer) at LA Dodgers (Ryu) -150 O/U 7.5
Recommendation: Under


If you've read these pages before you know that I am a big fan of Cleveland’s Trevor Bauer who is starting to show more consistency to go along with his swing-and-miss stuff. I think he'll benefit from pitching in a National League park this afternoon as well as it being the Dodgers first-ever look at the hard throwing righty. Hyun-Jin Ryu has been as consistent as they come churning out quality start after quality start this season. Asian pitchers are notoriously tough in first-look situations as not one current Indians player has an AB vs. Ryu. The Tribe has also had a difficult time hitting lefties this season with .244/.313/.350/.663 splits hence their 10-16 record vs. southpaws. This is a true getaway day situation with the afternoon start, LA headed to Colorado, and Cleveland with an off day on Thursday before returning home for a 10-game homestand. Let's play this one UNDER the total.

Read more



Tags: MLB Cleveland Indians Los Angeles Dodgers Andrew Lange




CFL Handicapper Free Play: Toronto Argonauts at Winnipeg Blue Bombers

06.26.2014     09:01 AM     ICC     Printer Friendly
Submitted by ICC

SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Toronto -7 at Winnipeg O/U 55.5
Recommendation: Under


I am a little puzzled by the move toward the Over this morning with this total getting pounded from 53.5 to as high as 55.5 in many locations. The Winnipeg Blue Bombers have a brand new starting QB in Drew Willy and although he has talent and plenty of potential, we are still talking about someone who was a backup in Saskatchewan for the last couple years and will be making his first start. Toronto has some holes to fill defensively and they also have a new DC in Tim Burke. The Argos lost key veteran CB Pat Watkins while also saying goodbye to DL Khalif Mitchell and two solid LB’s Robert McCune and Marcus Ball. However given Winnipeg’s offensive makeup to start the campaign it shouldn’t be as big of a challenge for the revamped Argos defense.

On the flip side, Toronto's strength is its offense with veteran QB Ricky Ray who in 2013 completed a ridiculous 77% of his passes. The line move suggests bettors feel Toronto’s offense will roll in this matchup but Winnipeg has upgraded their talent on defense and there really is nowhere to go but up. Winnipeg’s new Read more



Tags: CFL Toronto Argonauts Winnipeg Blue Bombers Ian Cameron




College Football Handicapping: Switching conferences

06.26.2014     07:19 AM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Good breakdown on ESPN.com of the history of college football teams switching to new BCS conferences – West Virginia (Big East to Big XII) and Texas A&M (Big XII to SEC) two recent examples. In most situations the step up in class resulted in poorer results the first year – Utah, TCU, and Missouri good examples. This year, Rutgers and Maryland join the Big Ten.




Tags: College Football Maryland Terrapins Rutgers Scarlet Knights Big Ten




College Football Gambling: Rutgers puts offense in hands of Friedgen

06.24.2014     02:10 PM     Printer Friendly
SportsMemo.com blog entry.
Rutgers’ Kyle Flood enters the all-important third season as head coach as the team moves from the AAC to the Big Ten. The Scarlet Knights went 9-4 in Flood's first season but dropped to 6-7 in the AAC a year ago. In hopes of bolstering the offense – and developing turnover prone quarterback Gary Nova – Flood hired former Maryland head coach Ralph Friedgen to serve as offensive coordinator. Rutgers will be playing in the Big Ten's East Division which means games against Michigan, Michigan State, and Ohio State. They also drew Nebraska and Wisconsin for their two contests vs. the West.


"The thing that's most exciting to me about watching him offensively is to see the multiplicity of where he puts the pieces," Flood said.

"To be a really high quality pro-style offense it doesn't mean you line up with two backs in the backfield in the I the whole game. It should be a multiplicity of personnel groups. It should be a multiplicity of formations, shifts, motions.

"By the end of spring I began to see

Read more



Tags: College Football Rutgers Scarlet Knights Big Ten



44

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June

24


 
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